June 2008

I have in past years learned a great deal from reading John Calfee’s book “Fear of Persuasion,” on the consumer benefits of advertising. Now he is writing on drug development in “The Indispensable Industry,”

http://www.american.com/archive/2008/may-june-magazine-contents/the-indispensable-industry

He considers, one after another, various proposals to fund drug development using public funds, prizes, or other plans. He writes:

There are two problems with government and nonprofit R&D as a substitute for the traditional for-profit industry. One lies in what the nonprofit sector has not tried to do; the other lies in what it has tried to do. 

We have to remember that no laws, regulations, or traditions have prevented the public research system from inventing the drugs we need if it was really capable of doing that and no one else was. In principle, publicly funded drug research can run all the way from basic research through clinical trials to FDA approval and, if the believers in this approach are correct, it can be conducted at reasonable costs including the inevitable losses from drilling dry holes. 

But let’s look at the record. If we really had a reliably productive government-nonprofit drug development system, we should have seen its fruits by now. Those fruits would have arrived in such areas as the testing of off-patent drugs with great potential and the creation of new drugs where profit incentives are inherently weak because of inadequate intellectual property laws. We should have seen, for example, clinical demonstrations of aspirin for heart disease and cancer much faster than actually occurred…

The piece is well worth reading in its entirety.

WASHINGTON, June 15 – In an effort to increase the data that the Federal Communications Commission has available as it designs broadband policies, on Thursday the FCC ordered broadband providers to provide the agency with more detailed information.

For the past eight years, broadband providers had to provide the FCC with semi-annual information about the number of subscribers that they have in each ZIP code. Now, they will need to provide the number of subscribers in each Census tract, too.

In a last-minute change sought by AT&T and the non-profit group Free Press, the FCC decided to also require broadband carriers to separate out the number of business from residential customers.

Additionally, under a new form created by the broadband data order, carriers must also say how many of their subscribers within each Census tract fit into each of eight separate speed tiers.

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Today I’ve filed several articles on BroadbandCensus.com with extensive coverage from the Broadband Policy Summit last Thursday and Friday. You can also see the links to these stories and others on broadband, at the home page of BroadbandCensus.com.

Check back at BroadbandCensus.com on Monday morning, when I’ll be posting material about the Federal Communications Commission’s Friday decision on broadband data issues.

Comcast-BitTorrent, Wireless Net Neutrality Issues Stir Debate at Broadband Policy Summit

June 14 – Critics and proponents of Network Neutrality squaring off on the topic on Friday agreed that recent actions by both cable and wireless providers had had re-vivified the debate about the topic. read more

Ambassador: U.S. Wireless Policies Emulated by Developing Nations

June 13 – America’s wireless policies continue to be emulated by developing nations, Ambassador David Gross, United States coordinator for international communications and information policy, said Friday. read more

Rep. Cliff Sterns Decries Net Neutrality Rules

June 12 – Rep. Cliff Stearns, R-Fla., decried the move to impose Network Neutrality on broadband carriers, speaking at a keynote luncheon address at the Broadband Policy Summit IV here. read more

Questions about Broadband Data Swirl at Broadband Policy Summit

June 12 – Questions about the availability and detail of broadband data featured prominently in presentations and in discussions at Thursday’s sessions of Broadband Policy Summit IV. read more

Via Randy Barnett on Volokh: Larry Lessig has a passionate defense of 9th Circuit Judge Alex Kozinski, whose family’s file server had some edgy and ribald files on it, which files could be accessed over the Internet. A lawyer with a grudge against Kozinski is apparently seeking to discredit the judge for the appearance of these files on his server, and there has been some discussion of whether Judge Kozinski should recuse himself from trying an obscenity case. (Though he is a circuit judge, he is sitting by designation as a trial judge.) Eugene Volokh has a similar post.

Kudos to Professor Lessig for his defense of Judge Kozinski, with whom he likely has some ideological differences. He didn’t have to say anything, and it’s to his credit that he did. Volokh is good to his long-time professional colleague.

On the merits, I share the views of both – what I’ve seen of the files are risque and sometimes boorish or gross, but they’re well within the mainstream of naughty Web humor. Were he not a respected judge sitting at an obscenity trial, the presence of these files on a family server would mean less than nothing.

The pair of comments intrigues me, though, because both draw real-world analogies to illustrate the privacy issues at play. Here’s Lessig:
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So-called consumer groups may be calling for antitrust action against Google right now, but Intel is actually facing charges.  Unfortunately, antitrust has come to be used by under-performing companies to slow down their competitors in the the hyper-competitive tech sector.  This trend is not only bad news for consumers, but it may put American companies at risk now that foreign governments are getting more interested in the game.  Here’s my recent article on the issue.

[Full disclosure, my site WashingtonWatch.com uses Google’s AdSense program and I use Google AdWords analytics to monitor the site’s usage.]

Google and Yahoo! have announced a non-exclusive agreement to run Google ads alongside Yahoo! search results. The usual suspects are ginning up to demand antitrust scrutiny, and I’m not persuaded. One self-identified “consumer” group sent me a release which says:

Google influences what consumers see in terms of advertising and search ranking, which lead consumers to click ahead in ways that benefit Google, its products and its sponsors. According to Steve Pociask, president of the American Consumer Institute, “[Google’s] dominance makes it harder for small firms to enter the market and differentiate themselves.” He adds, “the Justice Department should now realize that it’s dealing with what is essentially a monopoly and, without strong action, consumers will lose choice, differentiation and innovation for years to come.”

This argument doesn’t make sense, and it doesn’t make the case for antitrust scrutiny of the deal.
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Americans have a love-hate relationship with their cellphones.   Consumers have adopted wireless telephony with a passion — with over 250 million subscriptions at last count.  Many would rather venture out without their pants than without their phones.  Yet,  at the same time,  Americans seem deeply suspicious of the little devices,  perhaps believing that anything this convenient must be harmful.  

The latest case in point:  a video circulating on the net purportedly showing how radiation from cellphones can pop popcorn.   Posted on youtube and circulated endlessly by email, the video has been viewed millions of times.  It appears to to be an amateur recording made in someone’s living room, with a group of friends to put three cellphones in a circle around some popcorn kernels, then call them — making the phones ring and the popcorn pop to much merriment.

The unspoken message:  if these gizmos can explode a kernal of corn, what are they doing to your brain?

The problem though is that the whole thing is a hoax.   A total fabrication.  As it turns out, the radiation from even three cellphones isn’t even enough to warm up corn, never mind pop it.  As one commenter on the video put it:  “A 1 kilowatt microwave takes around one minute to pop its first kernel, and that’s in a closed environment. A cell phone transmitter operates from 0.1 to 1 watt, but this video shows these kernels popping almost immediately.”

And I’m not an electrical engineer, but I suspect that having the phones ring doesn’t change the equation much.

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Here are some thoughts that might become a paper. Feedback would be much appreciated.

Public choice theory can be summarized in four words: concentrated benefits, dispersed costs. Your share of the bill for the Bridge to Nowhere might be 5¢—much less than even the postage needed to write your member of Congress—but the developer and the local community stand to gain millions, which pays for lots of stamps. The few who will benefit from the transfer have an easy time organizing to lobby for it, while a group as diverse and dispersed as taxpayers face what Mancur Olson called a collective action problem. That is, the costs of organizing large groups are greater than the possible gain, and then there’s always the free-rider problem. This is the status quo and the source of much pessimism.

Here is, perhaps, cause for optimism: social media has pushed down, and continues to push down, the cost of organizing. If the cost can be pushed down far enough, it’s conceivable that the collective action problem could be solved. (That’s a thesis in case you hadn’t noticed.)

In his wonderful book, Here Comes Everybody, Clay Shirky tells the tale of two flights that where stranded at airports with the passengers subjected to terrible conditions. One incident happened in 1999, and the other almost identical incident happened in 2007. The former became a press blip, while the latter led to congressional reform of passenger rights. The difference, Shirky points out, is that the second event happened after the technology was in place to make it trivial for the passengers who had been in similar situations to find one another and organize into a cohesive group.

There seem to be two ways to get the attention of Congress: money or members. The AARP is the most effective lobby in town because it has the backing of 38 million members. Like the AAA, unions, and other large lobbies, the AARP solves the collective action problem by offering its members benefits—beyond representation in Washington—that can actually be captured by the individual. (What Olson called a “separate and selective incentive.”) Wikipedia and Linux and the rest offer selective incentives, but they also lower the costs of organization and participation dramatically. Would it be possible for an ad hoc Facebook group to rival a traditional lobby? I don’t know. Maybe we should try.
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Over at Techdirt, Mike Masnick has a great post talking about my Cato Unbound essay on the future of copyright. He thinks I’m proposing a step in the right direction, but that I don’t go far enough:

I’m still not convinced that the restrictions are necessary even for commercial use. Part of the problem is that the distinction between “personal use” and “commercial use” is extremely blurry. Is my personal blog “personal” or “commercial” if I put Google ads on it? What if I don’t have ads, but use it to get a job or promote my company? Commercial use and personal use are not clear cut.

This is a good opportunity to illustrate the narrowness of what I’m suggesting: yes, if you put up a website with old Golden Girls episodes and you stuck ads alongside them, you’d be opening yourself up to a lawsuit. The non-commercial use exception would only apply in cases such as using a peer-to-peer file sharing program where there was clearly no commercial intent.

However, it’s important to emphasize that this would be an addition to, not a substitute for, fair use. If you used a copyrighted work in a way that would be fair use under current precedents, it would continue to be fair use under the regime I’m suggesting even if it were done for commercial use. The current law on fair use and contributory liability—Sony, Arriba Soft, Grokster, and the rest—would continue to apply. If your use was fair, or if your technology had a “substantial non-infringing use” under Sony, or if you qualified for the DMCA safe harbor, all of those defenses would remain available to you.

There is admittedly some fuzziness in the concept of commercial use, but I think it’s clearly a lot less fuzzy than the four-factor test that currently governs fair use. All I’m suggesting is adding an additional step: first the courts decide if a use is commercial or non-commercial. If non-commercial, that would be the end of the analysis and the defendant would be not guilty. If commercial, the courts would then proceed to consider other defenses, including fair use and the DMCA safe harbor.

Mike’s other substantive criticism is that I don’t go far enough:

if someone else is able to do something commercially valuable with my content, why should that be a problem? If anything, that should be encouraged — and the end result will often be that it makes the original content more valuable. Google uses fair use defenses to protect itself from copyright infringement charges, but it’s ridiculous to think that anyone is even complaining, since Google makes their content easier to find. And Google is most certainly a commercial entity. Having someone else do something commercial with content is a good way to help increase the value of that content, which is likely to flow back to the original creator anyway.

I’m sympathetic to this argument in many cases. He’s clearly right about most of the things Google does. Google News, Google Book Search, and the rest are pretty clearly not harming the market for the copyrighted works they use, and may even be enhancing their value. However, I don’t think this is the case across the board. Consider movie theaters. Mike correctly notes that going to the movies is as much about the experience as it is about the movie itself, which suggests that peer-to-peer file sharing won’t destroy the market for movie tickets. However, in a world with no copyright, I think you’d quickly see a network of digital movie theaters that would dramatically erode Hollywood’s ticket revenues by showing Hollywood movies without sending any ticket revenues back to the studio that made the movie. Revenues wouldn’t drop to zero—it would still be possible to generate some revenue the first few days, before the movie had leaked to the pirate theaters—but I can’t see how the legalization of pirate theaters would work to Hollywood’s benefit.

It’s true that the end result of unauthorized copying will often be to make the original content more valuable. But if that’s the case, then the use is likely to already fall under fair use. The question is what to do in those cases where unauthorized copying does harm the market for the original. I agree with Mike that this is a less common case than is commonly supposed. But it’s not a null set, and when it happens, I think it’s entirely legitimate for copyright law to intervene.

Lest any of us forget how lucky we are to live in a country where our speech rights are (largely) protected from oppressive government laws… Adam Liptak of the New York Times reminds us today in a wonderful front-page article: “Unlike Others, U.S. Defends Freedom to Offend in Speech.”