Miscellaneous

An incident at my son’s preschool yesterday serves as a good example of a problem I have sometimes pondered relating to IP–that is the extent to which substantive rules are adapted and sometimes distorted in response to difficulties or limitations on the enforcement end. An example, the tendency to boost the penalties for IP related offenses in an effort to compensate for low enforcement rates.

There is substantial room for disagreement on whether and when this kind of substantive adaptation is legitimate. One might think, at first, that one should never do that… consider the following example, though: Under the law of the Icelandic Commonwealth, the penalties for killing someone were much greater if one did not report the killing to one of the next three households one passed. A nice way to solve an evidentiary problem, and what is wrong with it, really, if otherwise disputes about killings would go on forever in the face of endless doubts about who was responsible?

Now, to preschool. The preschool classroom is well populated and while the little horrors are closely supervised they aren’t watched every minute. So any altercation that is not witnessed in full by a teacher can be resolved “correctly” only on the assumption that three and four-year-olds can be persuaded to talk about something other than princesses, guns, tadpoles, or dinosaurs. This is next to impossible. Yesterday the Grub was one of three small boys called to a conference at the “Peace Table” to settle down and talk over their differences. What happened? No one knows. The Grub told me gravely that he hit E, and when asked why, said it was because E. hit him. E. is a sensible chap a full year older and unlikely to hit absent provocation (unlike budding sociopath K.), provocation that The Grub is capable of supplying, but no testimony on this point was forthcoming. This morning The Grub told his father, in response to skilled cross-examination, that he had pushed E., still with the same grave honest face. What actually happened? How was the third little boy A. involved? A. is a scamp, so probably he was involved somehow, but this cannot be admissible. Pushing further only lead to bubbles being blown into milk. So the substantive rules we are left with as a result of such situations are mere pretty phrases, such as “play nicely with your friends.” This won’t do, and how The Grub is to learn that it is okay to defend himself but not attack in this context I do not know. So far, therefore, the main things he seems to have learned in preschool are 1) how to make a fist 2) how to use his sharp little elbows to keep his place in a crowd 3) what a transformer is. Luckily we have a few years left. If I were having another child, I would just let them scuffle away and trust that he would learn not to hit because it leads to being hit back, with some adaptations to avoid a doves/hawks problem. Just an experiment, to see how that one would turn out.

 

 

 

 

Susan Crawford points out that the Yale Information Society Project recently posted its “9.5 Theses for Technology Policy in the Next Administration.” It’s apparently also the theme for the 18th Annual Computers, Freedom, and Privacy Conference (CFP).

What I found intriguing about the list is that (a) protecting free speech doesn’t make their radar screen, which seems both sad and puzzling since it will continue to be under attack regardless of who is in charge next year; and, (b) perhaps less surprisingly, much of what they are calling for the next administration to do would involve more regulation of the Internet, broadband networks and media markets. Here’s their list and how I would score each item [Note: I am using CAPS below not to scream, but just to differentiate my scoring versus their proposal]:
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Headline of the Day

by on April 29, 2008 · 9 comments

Hans Reiser is fscked: jury delivers guilty verdict

Ars certainly has a history of running edgy headlines, but this takes things to a new level.

Update: As PJ points out, fsck is a Unix file system utility, and Reiser did work on Linux file systems.

Every once in a while, a Slashdot post wanders out of the realm of the science/IT areas where the editors have the most expertise, and the results are often underwhelming. For example:

“The bill to ban genetic discrimination in employment or insurance coverage is moving forward. Is this the death knell of private insurance? I think private health insurance is pretty much incompatible with genetic testing (GT) for disease predisposition, if said testing turns out to be of any use whatsoever. The great strength of GT is that it will (as technology improves) take a lot of the uncertainty out of disease prediction. But that uncertainty is what insurance is based on. If discrimination is allowed, the person with the bad genes is out of luck because no one would insure them. However, if that isn’t allowed, the companies are in trouble. If I know I’m likely to get a certain condition, I’ll stock up on ‘insurance’ for it. The only solution I can see is single-payer universal coverage along the lines of the Canadian model, where everyone pays, and no one (insurer or patient) can game the system based on advance knowledge of the outcomes. Any other ideas? This bill has been in the works for a while.”

At the risk of committing the same sin of opining outside of my area of expertise, this seems to be rather misguided. I should give the guy credit for understanding the basic point that insurance is about managing risk. If you’re 100 percent sure you’ll need a heart transplant in the near future, and you buy a policy that will pay for it, that’s not an “insurance policy.” It’s just a health care plan. An insurance policy is a tool for managing the risks of events that you don’t know will definitely happen.

Unfortunately, this anonymous reader takes this kernel of truth and uses it to draw sweeping conclusions that just don’t follow from them. Because genetic tests hardly ever tell you precisely what diseases you’ll get and when you’ll get them. Rather, they tell you about dispositions and tendencies. They say “your chance of getting heart disease is twice as high as normal” or “You’re likely to get parkinsons disease sometime in your 40s or 50s.”

If it were true that anyone with an elevated risk of health problems would be ineligible for health insurance, then you’d also expect that men under 30 would be ineligible for auto insurance. But of course, that’s not what happens. Insurance companies take the elevated risk into account in setting premiums. In a world with widespread genetic screening, the price of your insurance would take into account your genetic predispositions. Those who are blessed with good genes would pay lower premiums, while those with bad genes would pay higher premiums.

Now, reasonable people can object that this is unfair. And there will likely be a small minority of individuals whose genes are so bad that they’ll be unable to pay the premium required to properly compensate the insurance company for the risk they’re taking. But if you’re inclined to have the state do something about this, it doesn’t by any means follow that the state needs to run the entire insurance/payment system. Rather, the state can take a variety of actions targeted at the losers of the genetic lottery while leaving the market free to work for the majority of individuals with average or below-average risks. This can take several forms. One would be premium subsidies at the front end: say, the state picks up a percentage of the premium for people with above-average premiums. Another would be to directly subsidize treatments for the most expensive-to-treat diseases, which would have the effect of reducing premiums for people with those diseases. Or you can (although I think we shouldn’t) continue in the direction we’ve been going, of imposing all sorts of implicit cross-subsidies in the health care market itself (such as the tax preferences for employer-provided group policies and rules requiring hospitals to treat patients regardless of their ability to pay).

This isn’t a health care blog, and I’m not a health care expert, so I won’t venture an opinion on which of those options, if any, is most desirable. But it’s a non-sequitur to assert that because we’ll be able to more accurately assess risk, that private insurance will no longer be viable. The insurance industry is extremely good at pricing risk in other parts of the economy, and they’d do it in health care too if the government didn’t exert so much effort to preventing them from doing so. It’s a complete non-sequitur to suggest that any of this is a strong argument for a centrally-planned government health care system.

ALF 5 in 60 seconds

by on April 22, 2008 · 8 comments

A bunch of drunks obsessing over Justine Bateman.

ALF 5 Tonight!

by on April 21, 2008 · 8 comments

The big day has arrived. Tonight at 5:30, we’ll be getting together to drink, talk tech policy, and raise money for the Jefferson 1. Please note that the location has been changed from what was originally announced: it’ll be at Science Club, 1136 19th Street, NW, Washington D.C. Hope to see you there.

… although I would have liked to hear someone work in the term “frack” a few times, too…


Congress Debates Merits Of New Catchphrase

Alcohol Liberation Front 5 is happening Monday, April 21, at 5:30 p.m., at the Science Club, 1136 19th Street, NW, Washington D.C.  

As if the excitement of hanging around with the TLF bloggers weren’t enough, we’re making the event a fundraiser for our friend (and former co-blogger), Brooke Oberwetter.  Brooke was arrested at the Jefferson Memorial the other night – for dancing.  Or perhaps for asking why dancing wasn’t allowed. (More information is at the Free the Jefferson 1 blog.)

She needs funds to pay for legal fees, and you need an excuse to drink.  It’s a match made in heaven!

Suggested donation: $10. More is better, and we’ll be passing the plate once again after you’re sloshed.

If you can’t make it because you’re out of town, or perhaps because you find the idea of hanging out with the TLF crew absolutely revolting, you can donate to Brooke’s cause by clicking on the image below.  Otherwise, see you Monday!

 

Ben Worthen explains why. (I am much better about guarding my privacy. I usually only give out my password if the chick is topless and offering ice cream!)

Techno Bashing

by on April 16, 2008 · 23 comments

Fantastic:

And while I’m on the subject, I can’t resist linking to my all-time favorite techno-bashing animation.