Are FLOSS developers the future promise of a competitive ICT sector in the EU because they are…cheaper?
That’s the main point of Section 7.4 of the EC’s FLOSS report (Skills Development and Employment Generation), which argues that not only are FLOSSers faster and better than programmers using commercial software, they’re cheaper, too.
This analysis here is another in a series of blog posts on the EC FLOSS report. Previously, I’ve discussed how the report is a call to action for Europe’s policymakers, that FLOSS’s popularity is growing, and that many FLOSS developers live in the EU. The report’s authors claimed that FLOSSers work faster (ie. are more productive), but as I discussed in FLOSS: The Software Hare that Beats the Proprietary Turtle?, the data didn’t really support that claim. In my last post I concluded that there was only a weak correlation that firms that contribute to FLOSS derive more revenue, on average, than non-contributing companies, and even if there were, the study was devoid of any cause/effect analysis.
By analyzing the EC FLOSS study, I’m not trying to beat up on FLOSS. Overall, the almost 300 page report is more interesting than it appears at first glance, and is actually a good case study on how / how not to devise a study to prove a public policy point. Instead, what really interested me was that the EC sponsored a study advocating for old fashioned industrial policy of preferences and antitrust actions aimed at promoting FLOSS over proprietary software.
Markets aren’t perfect, but government manipulations of supply and demand to achieve a particular result are notorious for very low payback. Moreover, the ICT industry has been a remarkable success in its own right and has driven productivity improvements in nearly every
sector, without the guiding hand of industrial policy like that being called for in the FLOSS study.
Getting back to the meat of this post, the study states that FLOSS developers should be less expensive because just about any teenager can become a FLOSS programmer through informal apprenticeships and learning on their own.
Here’s the logic: increase the supply of workers while holding demand constant, and wages will fall. This is simple economics, but what are the more intricate effects of FLOSS employment generation when it is married to a pro-FLOSS EU industrial policy? Would a FLOSS-driven ICT industry help the EU pursue its Lisbon strategy to increase jobs and growth?