June 2008

The Register reports that Google is developing yet another suite of free tools for broadband users–this time aimed at allowing users to monitor traffic-management/shaping conducted by their ISP.

“We’re trying to develop tools, software tools…that allow people to detect what’s happening with their broadband connections, so they can let [ISPs] know that they’re not happy with what they’re getting – that they think certain services are being tampered with,” Google senior policy director Richard Whitt said this morning during a panel discussion at Santa Clara University, an hour south of San Francisco.

The article provides a short-but-interesting history of how Google’s views on Net Neutrality have evolved in recent years and about the debate inside the company as to whether to governmental prohibition of traffic management/prioritization by enshrining some conception of Net Neutrality in law.  Today, of course, the company has become perhaps the most outspoken corporate defender of Net Neutrality principles.  Google senior policy director Richard Whitt shows no sign of rethinking Google’s commitment to those principles, but suggests that the monitoring tools being developed by Google might fundamentally change the calculus of the debate:

“The forces aligned against us are real. They’ve been there for decades. Their pockets are deep. Their connections are strong with those in Washington,” he said. “Maybe we can turn this into an arms race on the application software side rather a political game.”

As Verizon’s Link Hoewing observes, these tools promise to increase dramatically the transparency of network management practices.  This increased transparency will provide a clearer picture of what ISPs are actually doing, something that is largely a subject of speculation today, while helping to remove the current uncertainty that fuels sometimes wild speculation about the “death of the Internet” and other calamities in a world without Net Neutrality.  Psychologically, transparency may thus remove much of the need for perceived need for Net Neutrality mandates.

But, of course, as defenders of traffic prioritization argue, there will be instances where ISPs “deviate from Net Neutrality principles” by prioritizing certain traffic to enable advanced voice and video services over more intelligent networks.   (Read, for example, George Ou’s post taking issue with aspects of The Register‘s story.)  Of course, some will surely point to such instances as further evidence of the perceived “need” for regulation, but the fact that these practices will be rmore readily apparent to more users than ever before will in fact provide three powerful alternative mechanisms for disciplining ISP traffic management.

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Today the Politico ran an article on online retail theft, an issue that NetChoice has been working on for a while now. In the article Retail Merchants want Feds to Crack Down Online, writer Lisa Lerer does a good job of laying out the position of traditional retailers:

The stores blame online auction sites — particularly those that allow sellers to offer items anonymously — for boosting the crimes from a few stolen razor blades to enough theft to supply a burgeoning industry. They want Congress to limit the types of items that can be sold online and to require the sites to investigate their sellers.

Retailers are also going to the states. There were bills in Maryland and Colorado, among others, that would prohibit a state’s residents and businesses from selling common consumer items such as cosmetics, non-prescription drugs, food products, and baby formula on any internet auction.

Here’s the reality:  when retailers blame online marketplaces for organized retail crime, they don’t want you to know about the root causes of their theft problems. The National Retail Federation conducted its own study of the problem in 2005, and found that:

  • Most retail theft occurs from a store’s own employees and retail vendors. Shoplifting accounted for less than one-third of all theft.
  • Retailers have pursued fewer prosecutions, arrests, and invoked civil recovery laws less frequently in 2005 compared to previous years.
  • Retail theft is not increasing. The rate has generally declined over the years, and is 12% lower than it was just 4 years earlier.

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Cisco continues to do interesting work estimating the impact of video on Internet traffic. With the release of two new detailed reports, updating last year’s “Exabyte Era” paper, they’ve now created a “Visual Networking Index.” These reports follow my own series  of articles and reports on the topic. 

Cisco’s Internet traffic growth projections for the next several years continue to be somewhat lower than mine. But since their initial report last August, they have raised their projected compound annual growth rate from 43% to 46%. Cisco thus believes world IP traffic will approach half a zettabyte (or 500 exabytes) by 2012. My own projections yield a compound annual growth rate for U.S. IP traffic of around 58% through 2015. This slightly higher growth rate would produce a U.S. Internet twice as large in 2015 compared to Cisco’s projections. Last winter George Gilder and I estimated that world IP traffic will pass the zettabyte (1,000 exabytes) level in 2012 or 2013.

For just one example of the new applications that will drive IP traffic growth, look at yesterday’s announcement by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Partnering with my friend, the young graphics pioneer Jules Urbach, AMD previewed its Cinema 2.0 project, which combines the best of cutting edge technology and thinking from video games, movies, graphics processors, and computer generated imaging — with lots of artistic insight and inspiration — to create new kinds of interactive real-life real-time 3D virtual worlds, all powered not by supercomputers but simple video cards that you find in PCs and Macs, or from servers in the “cloud.”

A photorealistic 3D robot and city scene rendered in real-time. (AMD; Business Wire)

A photorealistic 3D robot and city scene rendered in real time. (AMD; Business Wire)

The huge increases in bandwidth and robust traffic management needed to deliver these new high-end real-time services continue to show why net neutrality regulation and other artificial limitations on traffic management are complete non-starters from a technical perspective.

XMSirius As James Gattuso noted last week, the XM-Sirius merger review has now entered the realm of the theater of the absurd. It’s not just that the FCC has lapped its 180-day merger review shot clock two-and-half times already (we’re over 450 days into the proposed merger, after all), but it’s the fact that there seems to be no end to the list of conditions that some regulatory advocates or policymakers want to extort out of the firms. After all, according to the latest press reports, the FCC has already managed to extract the following “voluntary” concessions out of them: a price cap on programming for potentially 3 years; a la carte programming requirements; new interoperability standards for satellite radio receivers; capacity set asides of something like 4 percent of their spectrum capacity (apparently about 12 channels) for non-commercial educational programming; and potentially the lease of another 4 percent of capacity to minority or women-owned enterprises.

These are astonishing concessions, and one is forced to wonder if the merger was really worth it and whether the merged firm will really be able to survive the intensely competitive media landscape it finds itself in with such constraints in place. Let’s not forget, although both firms have grown their subscriber rolls, they have NEVER found a way to turn a profit! And new audio options continue to pop up seemingly every week and bombard our ears with evermore news, information and entertainment.

Alas, all those concessions appear not to be enough to satisfy some on Capitol Hill. According to today’s Washington Post:

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Nick Carr tells us that Google and the Net are making us stupid. And, over at Slate, Michael Agger calls us “Lazy Bastards” for how we read online.

So, what do you think? Is the Net destroying our attention spans and turning us in to mindless, robotic sheep?

[My own take… The Net isn’t making us stupid, but it is changing the way we process information and, for better or worse, affecting our patience regarding some forms of media / writing. The death of media scarcity and the rise of information abundance was bound to have profound implications for how we read, write and communicate—in most ways for the better, but perhaps in some ways for the worse.  I doubt we’ll ever have a Shakespeare arising from the world of Twitter, for example, but I believe we are better off for having technologies and media platforms like it in our lives. We just all struggling to find balance and a sensible middle ground in a world where our senses are being bombarded with an unprecedented number of choices and volume of information. But I’ll take that predicament over our miserable past existence any day of the week. Down with scarcity; up with abundance!]

Are you still reading, or have I already lost your attention?!

Trade War

by on June 16, 2008 · 20 comments

Picking up on Braden’s recent post, “Abuse of Power? Competition Commissioner that Pushes ‘Smart Business Decisions,’” it’s no secret that Europe’s software industry is years behind Microsoft, and not surprising the industry is seeking help from politicians in Brussels.

When Kroes, a politician, talks about open standards one must assume she is referring to the European software industry, not to the open source movement generally. Of course, for the moment “the enemy of my enemy [may be] my friend,” as they say.

In her remarks last week Kroes said,

“I know a smart business decision when I see one — choosing open standards is a very smart business decision indeed,” Ms. Kroes told a conference in Brussels. “No citizen or company should be forced or encouraged to choose a closed technology over an open one.”

This statement could be read either as an innocent statement of personal opinion, or more like an informal, unofficial statement of official policy with plausible deniability. I suspect it is the latter, and that if you are a European bureaucrat or business leader you now understand what is expected of you as far as your future software procurement is concerned.

Why would Kroes need to be opaque? Because there are both structural (e.g., excessive tariffs, unreasonable licensing terms, etc.) and nonstructural trade violations (e.g., certain winks and nods) which are actionable. And because two or more can play this game.

A good reason for governments to not encourage boycotts of foreign goods is because foreign governments can do the same thing. That can lead to trade war, in which your efforts to protect one of your small, insignificant struggling industries may result in foreign retaliation against your most successful exporters.

Trade wars don’t always have serious repercussions, but they have sparked global recessions and many think a trade war sparked the Great Depression.

That’s another good reason why maybe politicians on both sides of the Atlantic ought to leave software procurement decisions up to the marketplace.

ACLU Off Course

by on June 16, 2008 · 17 comments

Alex Harris at OpenMarket.org has a good write-up suggesting that the ACLU has lost its way on the question whether there should be net neutrality regulation. He quotes Barry Steinhardt saying, “No longer is the government the greatest threat to free speech online. The threat is now the companies that run the pipes.”

Barry is a friend and one of the nicest people I know. His dips into hyperbole are quotable wonders to behold – at least when they’re in defense of real civil liberties.

Barry, and all my friends at the ACLU, know the power of my blog posts. They no doubt shudder at the thought that I would turn my acid keyboard their way. This time it’s only a gentle chiding, but I say, Fear it! – FEAR THE BLOG POST! – should I lose patience . . . .

Over at Cato@Liberty, I have a post up about how the suspected release of nuclear plans to the A.Q. Khan smuggling network relates to your privacy – and to copyright law.

Privacy laws threaten e-commerce innovation, as Wayne Crews and I argue in an op-ed in yesterday’s San Jose Mercury News:

Politicians have long used corporations as convenient whipping boys, and the technology industry is no exception. Today, tech companies face political attacks over their online privacy policies. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, for instance, recently demanded that Google provide a detailed explanation of how it stores user search queries.

The federal government, so eager to safeguard privacy, is itself the worst offender, unwilling to abide by the same stringent opt-in standards that regulations would impose on private firms. The post-Sept. 11 push for compulsory national ID cards, warrantless wiretapping and escalating data retention mandates reveal a government inclined toward violating privacy, not protecting it.

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Cato Unbound today published my reaction to Rasmus Fleisher’s lead essay on the future of copyright. My essay, titled Towards a Copyriot Act—and Away from it, Again, describes “another future for copyright, one in which lawmakers impose crushing penalties to discourage rampant infringement.” It begins by asking readers to put themselves in the shoes of a Hollwood executive, one who says,

“The police need to fire a few shots over the infringers’ heads. And if the looting continues, they should shoot some of the looters. That may sound severe, but we face a breakdown of civil order. After all, wouldn’t police — or perhaps the National Guard — do the same if mobs threatened to take over Wall Street, Rodeo Drive, or Constitution Avenue? Hollywood deserves the same protection. The time has come to get tough on infringement. The Copyright Act’s mild remedies evidently do not suffice. We need a Copyriot Act!”,

Cato Unbound will next host a series of brief exchanges between Fleischer and we three who responded to his lead essay. Check The Future of Copyright issue for that debate, as well as all of the essays.

[Crossposted at Agoraphilia and Technology Liberation Front.]