Ever since the American Spectator reported a few weeks ago that the House leadership would “aggressively pursue” reinstatement of the FCC’s old Fairness Doctrine, there’s been lively speculation as to whether the regulation will really be brought back to life. Despite much discussion, Dem leaders have — pardon the pun — maintained complete radio silence.
So how to determine the likelihood of this actually happening? Through markets of course. Yesterday, the online “prediction market” InTrade.com opened a market on the question of whether the fairness doctrine would be brought back by the end of this year. Essentially the system works like a stock market, with investors buying and selling future contracts on the event, which will pay a set sum if the event occurs.
So far there haven’t been any contracts completed — the market is just one day old. But bids so far have ranged from 10 to 20 or so (translating into a 10-20 percent chance of regulation.
That seems high to me – I don’t think reinstatement is that likely for 2007 (2007 is another story). But I’m not sure I’m willing to bet on that.
The Technology Liberation Front is the tech policy blog dedicated to keeping politicians' hands off the 'net and everything else related to technology.