Mark T. Williams predicted Bitcoin’s price would be under $10 by now; it’s over $600

by on May 30, 2014 · 11 comments

In April I had the opportunity to testify before the House Small Business Committee on the costs and benefits of small business use of Bitcoin. It was a lively hearing, especially thanks to fellow witness Mark T. Williams, a professor of finance at Boston University. To say he was skeptical of Bitcoin would be an understatement.

Whenever people make the case that Bitcoin will inevitably collapse, I ask them to define collapse and name a date by which it will happen. I sometimes even offer to make a bet. As Alex Tabarrok has explained, bets are a tax on bullshit.

So one thing I really appreciate about Prof. Williams is that unlike any other critic, he has been willing to make a clear prediction about how soon he thought Bitcoin would implode. On December 10, he told Tim Lee in an interview that he expected Bitcoin’s price to fall to under $10 in the first half of 2014. A week later, on December 17, he clearly reiterated his prediction in an op-ed for Business Insider:

I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play.

Well, you know where this is going. We’re now five months into the year. How is Bitcoin doing?

coindesk-bpi-chart

It’s in the middle of a rally, with the price crossing $600 for the first time in a couple of months. Yesterday Dish Networks announced it would begin accepting Bitcoin payments from customers, making it the largest company yet to do so.

None of this is to say that Bitcoin’s future is assured. It is a new and still experimental technology. But I think we can put to bed the idea that it will implode in the short term because it’s not like any currency or exchange system that came before, which was essentially William’s argument.

  • marcomarino

    Williams is a godd’am genius. I wish I was one of his students! All hail Prof. Williams!

  • Luke Hansen

    /sarc?

  • Luke Hansen

    Great articles and links! “bets are a tax on bullshit” is one of the best lines I’ve ever heard. Keep up the good work!

  • erikvoorhees

    While Williams clearly doesn’t understand Bitcoin, I agree he should get credit for at least making a verifiable prediction. Now he can be wrong as an honest man, unlike most skeptics who hurl ridicule against Bitcoin from an anonymous internet alias with neither reason nor concrete stance.

  • Jordan Buser

    the problem is, just like every other academic, he probably won’t be held accountable nor even acknowledge what he said despite it being in black and white and being proved factually wrong

  • NotProfBitcorn
  • @Bitcoinrat

    Erik, The Rat did some ‘digging’ into the background of Mark Williams sudden prominence as bitcoin-bashings main protagonist. Studies of his posting records show some interesting character changes , around about the time he started publicly attacking JPMorgan and Jamie Dimon ( If I was a betting Rat, I’d wager he was ‘paid off’ ) – my blog posts here

    http://thebitcoinrat.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/mark-williams-worst-career-decision-ever/

    http://thebitcoinrat.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/professor-mark-williams-has-gone-rather-quiet-on-bitcoin-i-wonder-why/
    .

  • EWC

    i think he meant to say USD10 per mBTC

  • Erik

    @erikvoorhees:disqus
    I think your giving this so called teacher to much credit.
    I would advice you to watch the video “Inside Job” (can be found on youtube).
    It’s every enlighten, its shows how much power the holders of FIAT currency have and how much influence they actually have on our so called education system. Most interesting part is how they react to certain questions. (it was very very clear to me they where lying, I am saying this as professional poker-player)

    I hope you’ll find the time to watch it.

  • Mark Rees

    I enjoyed watching your testimony at the hearing with Mark. I wrote a in-depth article about it for Bitcoin Magazine here: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/13562/time-running-mark-williams-prediction-10-bitcoin/

  • Mark Wurstein

    The most embarrassing Professors comment in my life. Time is up, you failed Mark. Stick to subjects you need not guess about., you look like a fool.

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