Technology: 2008 vs. 1992

by on December 13, 2008 · 9 comments

See my comparison of the state of technology in 2008 versus 1992, during the last Democratic presidential transition.

In mid-2008, the four-gigabyte (or 4,096 megabytes) flash memory chip in an iPod Nano cost $25. Late in 2008, four-gigabyte flash cards and USB drives are selling for $14.99. But back in 1992, four gigabytes of flash memory would have cost $500,000. This means a hypothetical iPod Nano circa 1992 would have set back the teenage Nirvana or Boyz II Men fan around $3 million. Apart from research scientists and a few early adopters of Compuserve and AOL, the Internet essentially didn’t exist in 1992. Monthly Internet traffic was four terabytes. All the data traversing the global net in 1992 totaled 48 terabytes. Today, YouTube alone streams 48 terabytes of data every 21 seconds. . . . The dramatic centralization of money, power, information and influence now under way seriously threatens the entrepreneurial revelations and technological revolutions that drive long-term growth. If we quasi-nationalize the energy, finance, auto and health care markets, and possibly bar dynamic new business models on the Internet, as with possible network neutrality regulation, we will close off many of the most promising paths to needed efficiencies and, more important, new wealth.

See the whole article at Forbes.com: “How Techno-Creativity Will Save Us.”

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About Bret Swanson

Bret Swanson is president of Entropy Economics, a research firm focused on technology and the global economy, and of Entropy Capital, a venture firm that invests in early-stage technology companies. For eight years he advised technology investors as executive editor of the Gilder Technology Report and later was a senior fellow at The Progress & Freedom Foundation. Today Swanson presents his “exaflood” research across the globe, writes a column for Forbes, and contributes to the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal on topics ranging from communications bandwidth to monetary policy. He studies innovation, globalization, China, Internet traffic, information theory, the stock market, and entrepreneurial economics. He is guided by the Laws of Say, Metcalfe, and Moore, the Theorem of Shannon, and the Curve of Laffer. His most pioneering and speculative research, however, concerns forces even more powerful and enigmatic — his four children nine and under.

Read more articles by Bret Swanson.

  • http://www.rentecdirect.com Martin

    Somewhat of a nostalgic article. I recall my first 40MB hard drive that cost almost $400. And then just a few short days ago purchasing a 1.5TB drive for $139.

    If my math is accurate (fat chance) then that 1.5TB drive would have cost me roughly $15 million back then (if they had existed).

  • http://bennett.com/blog Richard Bennett

    “The dramatic centralization of money, power, information and influence now under way seriously threatens the entrepreneurial revelations and technological revolutions that drive long-term growth.”

    Hmmmm. One group with its hand out is the broadband coalition of NGOs, network equipment vendors, unions, and carriers. If the gov't gives them money to build the infrastructure of decentralization, does that nullify the effects of the centralization of capital?

    I don't have the answer, just asking.

  • http://www.benrarick.blogspot.com benrarick

    cool visit my web page blog on tech news

  • http://www.benrarick.blogspot.com benrarick
  • http://www.benrarick.blogspot.com benrarick

    i agree

    its insane how technology has advanced over the past 10 years

    i remember buying a 512MB flash drive for like $50 3 years ago for my labtop, no wi can get a 32GB portable HDD for the same amount

    i heard somewhere that processor speeds double every 2 years, also

  • http://www.benrarick.blogspot.com benrarick

    OH! OMG……………………………….www.dvice.com……………………..is an awesome website!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! please check it out!


    and srry about all the posts….can't help my self i love computers!

  • http://enigmafoundry.wordpress.com eee_eff

    Interesting post, until you start in with this complete non-sequitur:

    The dramatic centralization of money, power, information and influence now under way seriously threatens the entrepreneurial revelations and technological revolutions that drive long-term growth. If we quasi-nationalize the energy, finance, auto and health care markets,

    The healthcare market is disfunctionel in the extreme–despite very high spending, US healthcare system repeatedly ranks about 40th, all of those who should be our peers in this regard. Healthcare is also an issue of justice, and unless steps are taken to decrease injustice, violence in the US will continue to rise. At TLF though no oone ccan ever look at the unintended consequences of policies, unless of course they are criticizing policies that they disagree with.


    and possibly bar dynamic new business models on the Internet, as with possible network neutrality regulation, we will close off many of the most promising paths to needed efficiencies and, more important, new wealth.

    There are a great many innovative companies out there in all sorts of fields. I will not succumb to the pessimism intrinsic to limiting the fields in which those companies will act. Well constructed markets will continue to foster innovation and advancement, and that advancement will occurr where you don't expect it.

  • http://enigmafoundry.wordpress.com eee_eff

    Interesting post, until you start in with this complete non-sequitur:

    The dramatic centralization of money, power, information and influence now under way seriously threatens the entrepreneurial revelations and technological revolutions that drive long-term growth. If we quasi-nationalize the energy, finance, auto and health care markets,

    The healthcare market is disfunctionel in the extreme–despite very high spending, US healthcare system repeatedly ranks about 40th, all of those who should be our peers in this regard. Healthcare is also an issue of justice, and unless steps are taken to decrease injustice, violence in the US will continue to rise. At TLF though no oone ccan ever look at the unintended consequences of policies, unless of course they are criticizing policies that they disagree with.


    and possibly bar dynamic new business models on the Internet, as with possible network neutrality regulation, we will close off many of the most promising paths to needed efficiencies and, more important, new wealth.

    There are a great many innovative companies out there in all sorts of fields. I will not succumb to the pessimism intrinsic to limiting the fields in which those companies will act. Well constructed markets will continue to foster innovation and advancement, and that advancement will occurr where you don't expect it.

  • http://enigmafoundry.wordpress.com eee_eff

    Interesting post, until you start in with this complete non-sequitur:

    The dramatic centralization of money, power, information and influence now under way seriously threatens the entrepreneurial revelations and technological revolutions that drive long-term growth. If we quasi-nationalize the energy, finance, auto and health care markets,

    The healthcare market is disfunctionel in the extreme–despite very high spending, US healthcare system repeatedly ranks about 40th, all of those who should be our peers in this regard. Healthcare is also an issue of justice, and unless steps are taken to decrease injustice, violence in the US will continue to rise. At TLF though no oone ccan ever look at the unintended consequences of policies, unless of course they are criticizing policies that they disagree with.


    and possibly bar dynamic new business models on the Internet, as with possible network neutrality regulation, we will close off many of the most promising paths to needed efficiencies and, more important, new wealth.

    There are a great many innovative companies out there in all sorts of fields. I will not succumb to the pessimism intrinsic to limiting the fields in which those companies will act. Well constructed markets will continue to foster innovation and advancement, and that advancement will occurr where you don't expect it.

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