safety – Technology Liberation Front https://techliberation.com Keeping politicians' hands off the Net & everything else related to technology Thu, 03 Apr 2025 23:20:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 6772528 7 AI Policy Issues to Watch in 2023 and Beyond https://techliberation.com/2023/02/10/7-ai-policy-issues-to-watch-in-2023-and-beyond/ https://techliberation.com/2023/02/10/7-ai-policy-issues-to-watch-in-2023-and-beyond/#respond Fri, 10 Feb 2023 13:33:58 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77088

In my latest R Street Institute blog post, “Mapping the AI Policy Landscape Circa 2023: Seven Major Fault Lines,” I discuss the big issues confronting artificial intelligence and machine learning in the coming year and beyond. I note that the AI regulatory proposals are multiplying fast and coming in two general varieties: broad-based and targeted. Broad-based algorithmic regulation would address the use of these technologies in a holistic fashion across many sectors and concerns. By contrast, targeted algorithmic regulation looks to address specific AI applications or concerns. In the short-term, it is more likely that targeted or “sectoral” regulatory proposals have a chance of being implemented.

I go on to identify seven major issues of concern that will drive these policy proposals. They include:

1) Privacy and Data Collection

2) Bias and Discrimination

3) Free Speech and Disinformation

4) Kids’ Safety

5) Physical Safety and Cybersecurity

6) Industrial Policy and Workforce Issues

7) National Security and Law Enforcement Issues

Of course, each of these issues includes many sub-issues and nuanced concerns. But I also noted that “this list only scratches the surface in terms of the universe of AI policy issues.” Algorithmic policy considerations are now being discussed in many other fields, including education, insurance, financial services, energy markets, intellectual property, retail and trade, and more. I’ll be rolling out a new series of essays examining all these issues throughout the year.

But, as I note in concluding my new essay, the danger of over-reach exists with early regulatory efforts:

AI risks deserve serious attention, but an equally serious risk exists that an avalanche of fear-driven regulatory proposals will suffocate different life-enriching algorithmic innovations. There is a compelling interest in ensuring that AI innovations are developed and made widely available to society. Policymakers should not assume that important algorithmic innovations will just magically come about; our nation must get its innovation culture right if we hope to create a better, more prosperous future.

America needs a flexible governance approach for algorithmic systems that avoids heavy-handed, top-down controls as a first-order solution. “There is no use worrying about the future if we cannot even invent it first,” I conclude.

Additional Reading

]]> https://techliberation.com/2023/02/10/7-ai-policy-issues-to-watch-in-2023-and-beyond/feed/ 0 77088 6 Ways Conservatives Betray Their First Principles with Online Child Safety Regulations https://techliberation.com/2022/09/20/6-ways-conservatives-betray-their-first-principles-with-online-child-safety-regulations/ https://techliberation.com/2022/09/20/6-ways-conservatives-betray-their-first-principles-with-online-child-safety-regulations/#comments Tue, 20 Sep 2022 19:42:00 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77048

I’ve been floating around in conservative policy circles for 30 years and I have spent much of that time covering media policy and child safety issues. My time in conservative circles began in 1992 with a 9-year stint at the Heritage Foundation, where I launched the organization’s policy efforts on media regulation, the Internet, and digital technology. Meanwhile, my work on child safety has spanned 4 think tanks, multiple blue ribbon child safety commissions, countless essays, dozens of filings and testimonies, and even a multi-edition book.

During this three-decade run, I’ve tried my hardest to find balanced ways of addressing some of the legitimate concerns that many conservatives have about kids, media content, and online safety issues. Raising kids is the hardest job in the world. My daughter and son are now off at college, but the last twenty years of helping them figure out how to navigate the world and all the challenges it poses was filled with difficulties. This was especially true because my daughter and son faced completely different challenges when it came to media content and online interactions. Simply put, there is no one-size-fits-all playbook when it comes to raising kids or addressing concerns about healthy media interactions.

Something Must Be Done!

My personal approach, as I summarized in my book on these issues, was to first and foremost do everything in my power to (a) keep an open mind about new media content and platforms, and (b) ensure an open line of ongoing communication with my kids about the issues they might be facing. Shutting down conversation or calling for others to come in and save the day were the worst two options, in my opinion. As I summarized in my book, “At the end of the day, there is simply no substitute for talking to our children in an open, loving, and understanding fashion about the realities of-this world, including the more distasteful bits.” This was my Parental Prime Directive, if you will. I just always wanted to make sure that my kids felt like they could talk to me about their issues, no matter how varied, horrible, or heart-breaking those problems might be.

When talking with other parents through the years, I’ve heard about their own unique concerns and struggles. Every family faces different challenges because no two kids or situations are alike. Moreover, the challenges can feel overwhelming in our modern world of information abundance, which is flush with ubiquitous communications and media options. Sometimes these parental frustrations can fester and grow into a sort of rage until you finally hear folks utter that famous phrase: Something must be done! And that “something” is often some sort of government regulation “for the children.”

Again, I get it. When all your best efforts to help or protect your kids don’t seem to work according to plan, it’s only natural to call for help. But there are very serious problems associated with calling on government for that help. When legislators and regulators are asked to play the role of National Nanny, it comes with all the same baggage that accompanies many other efforts by the government to intervene in our lives or control what people or organizations can say or do.

Conservative Contradictions

These are particularly sensitive issues for many conservatives, both because conservatives tend to have more heightened concerns about media content and online safety issues, and also because the steps they often recommend to address these issues can quickly come into conflict with their own first principles.

Let me run through six ways that support for media content controls and child safety regulations can sometimes run afoul of conservative principles.

1) It’s a rejection of personal responsibility

Again, I understand all too well how hard parenting can be. But that does not mean we should abdicate our parental responsibilities to the State. Conservatives have spent decades fighting government when it comes to broken schools and the supposed brainwashing many kids get in them. The rallying cry of conservatives has long been: Let us have a greater say in how we raise and educate our children because the State is failing us or betraying our values.

Thus, when conservatives suggest that the State should be making decisions for us as it pertains to anything the government says is a “child safety” issue, there is some serious cognitive dissonance going on there. In his humorous Devil’s Dictionary, Ambrose Bierce jokingly defined responsibility as, “A detachable burden easily shifted to the shoulders of God, Fate, Fortune, Luck or one’s neighbor. In the days of astrology it was customary to unload it upon a star.” For parental responsibility to actually mean something, it has to be more than a “detachable burden” that we unload upon government.

2) It’s an embrace of the administrative state & arbitrary rule by unelected bureaucrats

Beyond the classroom, conservatives have long been concerned about the specter of massive administrative agencies and armies of unelected bureaucrats controlling our lives from the shadows. I’ve spent decades working with conservative organizations and scholars trying to get the administrative state under some control to scale back its enormous power, arbitrary edicts, and costly burdens. Over-criminalization has become such a problem that, according to the Heritage Foundation, “regulatory offenses… have proliferated to the point that, literally, nobody knows how many federal criminal regulations exist today.” We’re all criminals of some sort in the eyes of the modern regulatory state.

Yet, when conservatives advocate the expansion of the administrative state through new “online safety” regulations, they are just making the over-criminalization problem worse, including by treating our own children as guilty parties for simply trying to access the primary media platforms of their generation and interact with their friends there. For example, calls to ban all teens from social media until they’re 18 would result in the most massive “forbidden fruit” nightmare in American history, with every teen suddenly becoming a criminal actor and working together to tunnel around bans using the same sort of VPNs and evasion technologies people in China and other repressive nations use to get around over-bearing speech policies. [See: “Again, We Should Not Ban All Teens from Social Media”]

Needless to say, all this regulation and bureaucratic empowerment would have massive negative externalities for online freedom more generally as the era of “permissionless innovation” is replaced by a new age of permission-slip regulation.

3) It’s a rejection of the First Amendment & free speech rights

Conservatives have spent many decades pushing for greater First Amendment-based freedoms as it pertains to religious liberty and or organizational/corporate speech issues. Thus, when conservatives seek to undermine free speech principles and jurisprudence in the name of child safety, it could undo everything conservatives have been fighting to accomplish in those other contexts.

Conservatives are understandably upset with some social media platforms for being too over-zealous with certain types of speech takedowns or de-platformings. But two wrongs don’t make a right, and they should not be calling on Big Government to be imposing its own editorial judgments in place of private actors. [See: “The Great Deplatforming of 2021“ and “When It Comes to Fighting Social Media Bias, More Regulation Is Not the Answer.“]

4) It’s a rejection of property rights and freedom more generally

Related to the previous two points, conservatives have long upheld the sanctity of property rights in many different contexts. This includes the property rights that private establishments enjoy under the Constitution to generally decide how to structure their operations, who they will do business with, and how they will do so. Private organizations and religious institutions possess not only free speech rights in this regard, but property and contractual rights, too.

But when it comes to “child safety” mandates, some conservatives would toss all this out the window and undermine those rights, replacing them with burdensome regulatory mandates that tell private parties how to conduct their affairs. Again, there’s a lot of cognitive dissonance going on here and it could have serious blowback for conservatives when the property / contractual rights of other people or organizations are undermined on similar grounds.

5) It’s an embrace of frivolous lawsuits & the trial lawyers that bring them

The last time I checked, trial lawyers were not exactly the most conservative-friendly constituency. For many decades, conservatives have looked to advance tort reform, limit junk science and frivolous lawsuits, and make sure that the courts don’t engage in excessive judicial activism.

Unfortunately, many of the child safety regulations being proposed today would empower the regulatory state and trial lawyers at the same time. Many of the bills being floated open the door to open-ended litigation and potentially punishing liability for private platforms — and not just against deep-pocketed “Big Tech” companies. The fact is, once conservatives open the litigation floodgates based on amorphous accusations of potential online safety harms, they will be empowering the tort bar (one of the biggest supporters of the Democratic Party, no less) to launch a legal jihad against any and every media platform out there. Good luck putting that genie back in the bottle once you unleash it.

6) It’s an embrace of the same moral panic arguments your parents leveled against you

How quickly we forget the accusations our own parents and others leveled against us as children. Remember when video games were going to make us a lost generation of murderous youth? Or when rap and rock-and-roll music were going to send us straight to hell? Today, those kids are all grown up and trying to tell us that they are fine but it’s this latest generation that is doomed. It’s just an endless generational cycle of moral panics. [See: “Why Do We Always Sell the Next Generation Short?” and “Confessions of a ‘Vidiot’: 50 Years of Video Games & Moral Panics”] Today’s conservatives need to remember that they, too, were once kids and somehow muddled through to adulthood.

The “3-E” Approach Is the Better Answer

At this point, some of the people who’ve read this far are screaming at the screen: “So, are you saying we should just do nothing!?”

Absolutely not. But it is important that we consider less onerous and more practical ways to address these challenging issues without falling prey to Big Government gimmicks that would undermine other important principles. We should start by acknowledging that there are no easy fixes or silver-bullet solutions. The plain truth of the matter is that the best solutions here can seem messy and unsatisfying to many because they require enormous ongoing efforts to mentor and assist our kids at a far deeper level than some folks are comfortable with.

For example, it is just insanely uncomfortable to have to speak with your kids about online bullying or harassment, pornography, violence in movies and games, hate speech, and so on. And I haven’t even mentioned the hardest things to talk to kids about: The daily news of the real world: wars, violence, tragic accidents, famines, etc. Honestly, the hardest conversations I’ve had to have with my kids were those about school shootings. By comparison, many other discussions about online content and interactions were much easier. To the extent that we’re attempting to measure and address negative media affects, I firmly believe that there a few things in this world more horrifying to kids — or harder to talk with them about — than the first 10 minutes of what’s on cable news each hour of the day.

Regardless, whether we’re talking about the potential “harms” or mass media or online content, we cannot pretend there exists a simple solution to any of it. Here’s the better approach.

I recently authored a study for the American Enterprise Institute on, “Governing Emerging Technology in an Age of Policy Fragmentation and Disequilibrium.” It was my attempt to sketch out a flexible, pragmatic, bottom-up set of governance principles for modern technology platforms and issues. In that report, I noted how “[t]he First Amendment constitutes a particularly high barrier to the use of hard law in the United States,” and that court challenges were likely to continue to block many of the regulatory efforts being floated today, just as been the case countless times before in recent decades. Thus, we need to have backup approaches to online safety beyond one-size-fits-all regulatory Hail Mary passes.

I have described that backup plan as the “3-E” approach or “layered approach” to online safety:

  • Empowerment of parents: Parental controls cannot solve all the world’s problems. It’s better to view them as helpful speed bumps or emergency alerts for when things are going badly for your child. In the old days, we placed a lot of faith in filtering, and that still has a role along with other tools that help place some reasonable limits not only on content but also overall consumption. But the best types of parental empowerment are those that force conversations between parents and kids by allowing reasonable monitoring to happen that is scaled by age (as in more limits for younger kids until they are gradually relaxed over time). And other carrot-and-stick tools and approaches are incredibly useful in helping parents place smart limits on youth activity and overall consumption.
  • Education of youth: Education is the strategy with the most lasting impact for online safety. Education and digital literacy provide skills and wisdom that can last a lifetime. Specifically, education can help teach both kids (and adults!) how to behave in — or respond to — a wide variety of situations. Building resiliency and encouraging healthy interactions is the goal.
  • Enforcement of existing laws: There are many sensible and straightforward laws already in place that address more concrete types of harm and harassment. And we have lots of laws pertaining to fraud and unfair and deceptive practices. Sometimes these rules can be challenging (and time-consuming) to enforce, but they constitute an existing backstop that can handle most worst-case scenarios when other less-restrictive steps fall short. And we should certainly tap these existing remedies before advancing unworkable new regulatory regimes.

I noted in my AEI study that, between 2000 and 2010, six major online-safety task forces or blue-ribbon commissions were formed to study online-safety issues and consider what should be done to address them. Each of them recommended some variant of the “3-E” approach as they encouraged a variety of best practices, educational approaches, and technological-empowerment solutions to address various safety concerns. Self-regulatory codes, private content-rating systems, and a wide variety of different parental-control technologies all proliferated during this period. Many multi-stakeholder initiatives and other organizations were also formed to address governance issues collaboratively. There are countless groups doing important work on this front today, including my old friends at the Family Online Safety Institute (FOSI) among many others.

These organizations push for a layered approach to online safety and work closely with educators, child development experts, and other academics and activists to find workable solutions to new online safety challenges as they arise. Their work is never done, and at times it can feel overwhelming. But, again, it’s the nature of the task at hand. We all must work together to continuously devise new and better approaches to addressing these challenges, because they will be endless. But let’s please not expect that we can unload these responsibilities on government and expect regulators to somehow handle it for us.

Do the Ends Justify the Means When it Comes to Media & Content Control?

I could be wasting my breath here because I’ve been attempting to appeal to conservative principles that may be rapidly disappearing from the modern conservative movement. Donald Trump radically disrupted everything in American politics, but especially the Republican Party. Many so-called national conservatives now live by Trump’s central operating principle: The ends justify the means. The ends are “owning the libs” in any way possible. And “the libs” include not only anyone on the Left of the political spectrum, but even those individuals and institutions that Trumpian conservatives believe are “the enemy” and controlled by “liberal interests.” By their definition, this now includes virtually all large media and technology companies and platforms. Thus, when we turn to the means, it’s increasingly the case that just about anything goes — including many traditional conservative principles.

To see how far we’ve come, recall what President Ronald Reagan said 35 years ago when vetoing an effort to reinstate the Fairness Doctrine. “History has shown that the dangers of an overly timid or biased press cannot be averted through bureaucratic regulation, but only through the freedom and compe­tition that the First Amendment sought to guarantee,” he said. At the time, President Reagan was confronted with some of the same arguments we hear today about media being too biased or conservatives not getting a fair shake. But he called upon his fellow conservatives to reject the idea that Big Government was the solution to such problems.

Unfortunately, Mr. Trump and some of his most loyal followers and even some major conservative groups today have largely given up on this logic and instead embraced regulation. While Trumpian conservatives love to decry everyone they oppose as “communists,” ironically it is this same group that is embracing a sort of communications collectivism as it pertains to modern media control. In the Trumpian worldview, media and tech platforms are useful only to the extent they carry out the will of the party — or at least the man on top of it.

These national conservatives have made a horrible miscalculation. Feeling aggrieved by Big Tech “bias,” or just feeling overwhelmed by things they don’t like about online platforms, they’ve decided that two wrongs make a right. In reality, two political wrongs never make a right, but they almost always combine to make government a lot bigger and more powerful.

It’s an incredibly naïve gamble almost certainly destined to fail, but they should ask themselves what it means if it works. This endless ratcheting effect will result in comprehensive state control of most channels of communications and information dissemination. Is this a game that you really think you can play better than the Lefties?

I’ll close by returning to one of Reagan’s favorite jokes. He always used to say that, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” I would suggest that an even scarier version of that line would be, “We’re from the government and we’re here to help you parent your kids.”

Don’t let it be you uttering that line.

______________

Additional Reading

· Adam Thierer, “Again, We Should Not Ban All Teens from Social Media”

· Adam Thierer, “Why Do We Always Sell the Next Generation Short?”

· Adam Thierer, “The Classical Liberal Approach to Digital Media Free Speech Issues”

· Adam Thierer, “Confessions of a ‘Vidiot’: 50 Years of Video Games & Moral Panics”

· Adam Thierer, “Left and right take aim at Big Tech — and the First Amendment“

· Adam Thierer, “When It Comes to Fighting Social Media Bias, More Regulation Is Not the Answer“

· Adam Thierer, “Ongoing Series: Moral Panics / Techno-Panics”

· Adam Thierer, “No Goldilocks Formula for Content Moderation in Social Media or the Metaverse, But Algorithms Still Help”

· Adam Thierer, “FCC’s O’Rielly on First Amendment & Fairness Doctrine Dangers“

· Adam Thierer, “Conservatives & Common Carriage: Contradictions & Challenges“

· Adam Thierer, “The Great Deplatforming of 2021“

· Adam Thierer, “A Good Time to Re-Read Reagan’s Fairness Doctrine Veto“

· Adam Thierer, “Sen. Hawley’s Radical, Paternalistic Plan to Remake the Internet“

· Adam Thierer, “How Conservatives Came to Favor the Fairness Doctrine & Net Neutrality“

· Adam Thierer, “Sen. Hawley’s Moral Panic Over Social Media“

· Adam Thierer, “The White House Social Media Summit and the Return of ‘Regulation by Raised Eyebrow’“

· Adam Thierer, “The Surprising Ideological Origins of Trump’s Communications Collectivism“

· Adam Thierer, Parental Controls & Online Child Protection: A Survey of Tools and Methods (2009).

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/09/20/6-ways-conservatives-betray-their-first-principles-with-online-child-safety-regulations/feed/ 3 77048 Dispatch from JMI’s “Tech & Innovation Summit” Panel on Progress Studies https://techliberation.com/2022/09/16/dispatch-from-jmis-tech-innovation-summit-panel-on-progress-studies/ https://techliberation.com/2022/09/16/dispatch-from-jmis-tech-innovation-summit-panel-on-progress-studies/#comments Fri, 16 Sep 2022 13:59:12 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77044

It was my pleasure this week to participate in a panel discussion about the future of innovation policy at the James Madison Institute’s 2022 Tech and Innovation Summit in Coral Gables, FL. Our conversation focused on the future of Progress Studies, which is one of my favorite topics. We were asked to discuss five major questions and below I have summarized some of my answers to them, plus some other thoughts I had about what I heard at the conference from others.

  1. What is progress studies and why is it so needed today?

In a sense, Progress Studies is nothing new. Progress studies goes back at least to the days of Adam Smith and plenty of important scholars have been thinking about it ever since. Those scholars and policy advocates have long been engaged in trying to figure out what’s the secret sauce that powers economic growth and human prosperity. It’s just that we didn’t call that Progress Studies in the old days.

The reason Progress Studies is important is because technological innovation has been shown to be the fundamental driver in improvements in human well-being over time.  When we can move the needle on progress, it helps individuals extend and improve their lives, incomes, and happiness. By extension, progress helps us live lives of our choosing. As Hans Rosling brilliantly argued, the goal of expanding innovation opportunities and raising incomes “is not just bigger piles of money” or more leisure time. “The ultimate goal is to have the freedom to do what we want.”

  1. What don’t policymakers get about progress?

Policymakers often fail to appreciate the connection between innovation policy defaults and actual real-world innovation outcomes. Here is the biggest no-duh statement ever uttered: If you discourage innovation by default, you’ll get a lot less of it. In other words, incentives matters if you hope to create a positive innovation culture. Innovation culture refers to the various social and political attitudes, policies and entrepreneurial activities that, taken together, influence the innovative capacity of a particular region.

Thus, when policymakers make the Precautionary Principle the legal default for innovative activities, it means that government has put a red light in front of entrepreneurs and treated them and their innovations as guilty until proven innocent.  That’s a sure-fire recipe for stagnation.

The better approach is to make Permissionless Innovation our policy default and treat entrepreneurs and innovations as innocent until proven guilty. When our policy defaults offer entrepreneurs more green lights instead of red ones, it encourages more experimentation with new and better ways of doing things. In turn, this spurs business formation, job creation, new industries and products, and broad-based economic growth.

But policymakers consistently ignore this fundamental reality about the connection between policy and progress.

  1. Can you think of any states or governments that are doing a good job of putting the insights of progress studies into practice?

This summer, I co-authored an essay about, “How Arizona Is Getting Innovation Culture Right,” and highlighted the many important reforms undertaken over the past eight years by Gov. Doug Ducey and the Arizona Legislature. Arizona has advanced several reforms that have helped the state get its innovation culture right both broadly and narrowly. Broadly speaking, the state took steps to minimize red tape burdens and streamline permitting process and occupational licensing mandates. They also promoted “right to earn a living” and “right to try” initiatives to broaden worker and patient opportunities.

In terms of more targeted reforms, Arizona took steps to clear the way for greater broadband rollout and encouraged experimentation with commercial drones and driverless cars. The state also helped pioneer the use of “regulatory sandboxes,” which grant innovators a temporary safe space free of excessive regulatory burdens so they can experiment with new products and services.

And then there’s the city of Miami. At the JMI event, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez delivered a keynote address and he identified 3 keys to attracting talent and building opportunity: (1) Keep taxes low, (2) keep people safe, and (3) focus on innovation. He’s following that script and making Miami a hotbed of entrepreneurial opportunity.

Mayor Suarez spoke of how he is embracing emerging technologies like blockchain to compete with the traditional geographic Goliaths of tech, like San Francisco and New York. There’s been a massive inflow of companies and investors as a result. The city has become #1 in tech job growth and the inflow of tech entrepreneurs. “It turns out that if you welcome people… they come,” he said. “They want to migrate to places that are on the cutting edge of technology” and find “pathways to prosperity.”

Miami and Arizona offer great models that other cities and states could follow if they hope to improve their own innovation culture.

  1. What is the difference between progress studies and industrial organization, or industrial policy, or “government planning, but for innovation”?

Many policymakers foolishly believe there exists a precise technocratic cocktail that can immediately unlock innovation through highly targeted interventions and spending initiatives. In reality, achieving consistent growth and prosperity requires more than Big Government gimmicks. It’s a long game.

Many politicians and pundits are often fond of using machine-like metaphors and insisting that they have the ability to “fine-tune” innovative outcomes or “dial-in” economic development according to a precise formula. This is how we end up trillions in debt without much to show for it. Most recently, we’ve witnessed an “orgy of spending” on industrial policy schemes at the federal level.

The better metaphor for thinking about a nation’s innovation culture might be a plant or garden. Two of the great Progress Studies thinkers are F. A. Hayek and Joel Mokyr. Hayek once suggested that policymakers should aim to “cultivate a growth by providing the appropriate environment, in the manner in which the gardener does this for his plants.”  And Mokyr has argued that technological innovation and economic progress must be viewed as “a fragile and vulnerable plant, whose flourishing is not only dependent on the appropriate surroundings and climate, but whose life is almost always short. It is highly sensitive to the social and economic environment and can easily be arrested by relatively small external changes.”

Thus, the technocratic industrial policy mindset is always looking for “sexy” initiatives that capture a lot of short-term media attention, but typically fail to produce meaningful innovations or lasting growth. What’s more important to long-term prosperity is that policymakers get the “boring” stuff right.

The building blocks of the “boring” general approach economic development is a mix of broadly applicable tax, spending, regulatory and legal rules that help create a stable innovation ecosystem. Again, it’s like Mayor Suarez’s 3-prong approach of low taxes, safe communities, and a welcoming embrace of entrepreneurialism. That’s the secret sauce that fuels long-term progress and a sustainable prosperity.

  1. Is there a disconnect between the theories of progress and the practice – in other words, is it a problem of governance forms?

Indeed, I already mentioned the difference between the Precautionary Principle and Permissionless Innovation and it’s always interesting to me how my scholars ignore the importance of these governance forms when thinking about how to advance progress. There exists an unfortunate tendency among many to either ignore or repeat the mistakes of the past. Having made significant economic and societal gains thanks to past technological progress, many pundits and policymakers come to take much of it for granted. Thus, Progress Studies requires a process of constant re-education to remind each new generation of what helped raise our living standards so dramatically over the past two centuries.

The dramatic growth in incomes, life expectancy, and human welfare were not the product of sheer luck but of important policy choices. The freedom to think, to innovate, and to trade are the three freedoms that gave us our modern riches. If our governance forms limit those foundational freedoms, our current welfare and future prosperity will suffer. This is the great lesson of Progress Studies.

Additional Reading from Adam Thierer on Progress Studies

 

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/09/16/dispatch-from-jmis-tech-innovation-summit-panel-on-progress-studies/feed/ 3 77044 Running List of My Research on AI, ML & Robotics Policy https://techliberation.com/2022/07/29/running-list-of-my-research-on-ai-ml-robotics-policy/ https://techliberation.com/2022/07/29/running-list-of-my-research-on-ai-ml-robotics-policy/#respond Fri, 29 Jul 2022 12:51:54 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77020

[last updated 4/3/2025 – Check my Medium page for latest posts]

This a running list of all the essays and reports I’ve already rolled out on the governance of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and robotics. Why have I decided to spend so much time on this issue? Because this will become the most important technological revolution of our lifetimes. Every segment of the economy will be touched in some fashion by AI, ML, robotics, and the power of computational science. It should be equally clear that public policy will be radically transformed along the way.

Eventually, all policy will involve AI policy and computational considerations. As AI “eats the world,” it eats the world of public policy along with it. The stakes here are profound for individuals, economies, and nations. As a result, AI policy will be the most important technology policy fight of the next decade, and perhaps next quarter century. Those who are passionate about the freedom to innovate need to prepare to meet the challenge as proposals to regulate AI proliferate.

There are many socio-technical concerns surrounding algorithmic systems that deserve serious consideration and appropriate governance steps to ensure that these systems are beneficial to society. However, there is an equally compelling public interest in ensuring that AI innovations are developed and made widely available to help improve human well-being across many dimensions. And that’s the case that I’ll be dedicating my life to making in coming years.

Here’s the list of what I’ve done so far. I will continue to update this as new material is released:

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021 (and earlier)

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/07/29/running-list-of-my-research-on-ai-ml-robotics-policy/feed/ 0 77020 Event Video on Algorithmic Auditing and AI Impact Assessments https://techliberation.com/2022/07/13/event-video-on-algorithmic-auditing-and-ai-impact-assessments/ https://techliberation.com/2022/07/13/event-video-on-algorithmic-auditing-and-ai-impact-assessments/#comments Wed, 13 Jul 2022 18:10:03 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77008

Upsides:

  • Audits and impact assessments can help ensure organizations live up their promises as it pertains to “baking in” ethical best practices (on issues like safety, security, privacy, and non-discrimination).
  • Audits and impact assessments are already utilized in other fields to address safety practices, financial accountability, labor practices and human rights issues, supply chain practices, and various environmental concerns.
  • Internal auditing / Institute of Internal Auditors (IIA) efforts could expand to include AI risks
  • Eventually, more and more organizations will expand their internal auditing efforts to incorporate AI risks because it makes good business sense to stay on top of these issues and avoid liability, negative publicity, or other customer backlash.
  • the International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP) trains and certifies privacy professionals through formal credentialing programs, supplemented by regular meetings, annual awards, and a variety of outreach and educational initiatives.
  • We should use similar model for AI and start by supplementing Chief Privacy Officers with Chief Ethical Officers.
  • This is how we formalize the ethical frameworks and best practices that have been formulated by various professional associations such as IEEE, ISO, ACM and others.
  • OECD — Framework for the Classification of AI Systems with the twin goals of helping “to develop a common framework for reporting about AI incidents that facilitates global consistency and interoperability in incident reporting,” and advancing “related work on mitigation, compliance and enforcement along the AI system lifecycle, including as it pertains to corporate governance.”
  • NIST — AI Risk Management Framework “to better manage risks to individuals, organizations, and society associated with artificial intelligence.”
  • These frameworks being developed through a consensus-driven, open, transparent, and collaborative process. Not through top-down regulation.
  • Many AI developers and business groups have endorsed the use of such audits and assessments. BSA|The Software Alliance has said that, “By establishing a process for personnel to document key design choices and their underlying rationale, impact assessments enable organizations that develop or deploy high-risk AI to identify and mitigate risks that can emerge throughout a system’s lifecycle.”
  • Developers can still be held accountable for violations of certain ethical norms and bast practices both through private and potentially even through formal sanctions by consumer protection agencies (Federal Trade Commission / comparable state offices / by state AGs).
  • EqualAI / WEF — “Badge Program for Responsible AI Governance”
  • field of algorithmic consulting continues to expand (ex: O’Neil Risk Consulting)

Downsides:

  • constitutes a harm or impact in any given context will often be a contentious matter.
  • Auditing algorithms is nothing like auditing an accounting ledger, where the numbers either add up or they don’t.
  • With algorithms there are no binary metrics that can quantify the correct amount of privacy, safety, or security in any given system.
  • E.U. AI act will be a disaster for AI innovation and investment
  • Proposed U.S. Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 would require that developers perform impact assessments and file them with the Federal Trade Commission. A new Bureau of Technology would be created inside the agency to oversee the process.
  • If enforced through a rigid regulatory regime and another federal bureaucracy, compliance with algorithmic auditing mandates would likely become a convoluted, time-consuming bureaucratic process. That would likely slow the pace of AI development significantly.
  • Academic literature on AI auditing / impact assessment ignores potential costs; Mandatory auditing and assessments are treated as a sort of frictionless nirvana when we already know that such a process would entire significant costs.
  • Some AI scholars suggest that NEPA should be model for AI impact assessments / audits.
  • NEPA assessments were initially quite short (sometimes less than 10 pages), but today the average length of these statements is more than 600 pages and include appendices that average over 1,000 pages on top of that.
  • NEPA assessments take an average of 4.5 years to complete and that, between 2010 and 2017, there were four assessments that took at least 17 years to complete.
  • Many important public projects never get done or take far too long to complete at considerably higher expenditure than originally predicted.
  • would create a number of veto points that opponents of AI could use to stop much progress in the field. This is the “vetocracy” problem.
  • We cannot wait years or even months for bureaucracies to eventually getting around to formally signing off on audits or assessments, many of which would be obsolete before they were even done.
  • “global innovation arbitrage” problem would kick in: Innovators and investors increasingly relocate to the jurisdictions where they are treated most hospitably.
  • Both parties already accuse digital technology companies of manipulating their algorithms to censor their views.
  • Whichever party is in power at any given time could use the process to politicize terms like “safety,” “security,” and “non-discrimination” to nudge or even force private AI developers to alter their algorithms to satisfy the desires of partisan politicians or bureaucrats.
  • FCC abused its ambiguous authority to regulate “in the public interest” and indirectly censor broadcasters through intimidation via jawboning tactics and other “agency threats.” or “regulation by raised eyebrow”
  • There are potentially profound First Amendment issues in play with the regulation of algorithms that have not been explored here but which could become a major part of AI regulatory efforts going forward.

Summary:

  • Auditing and impact assessments can be a part of a more decentralized, polycentric governance framework.
  • Even in the absence of any sort of hard law mandates, algorithmic auditing and impact reviews represent an important way to encourage responsible AI development.
  • But we should be careful about mandating such things due to the many unanticipated cost and consequences of converting this into a top-down, bureaucratic regulatory regime.
  • The process should evolve gradually and organically, as it has in many other fields and sectors.
]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/07/13/event-video-on-algorithmic-auditing-and-ai-impact-assessments/feed/ 3 77008 Again, We Should Not Ban All Teens from Social Media https://techliberation.com/2022/07/05/again-we-should-not-ban-all-teens-from-social-media/ https://techliberation.com/2022/07/05/again-we-should-not-ban-all-teens-from-social-media/#comments Wed, 06 Jul 2022 00:16:49 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77004

A growing number of conservatives are calling for Big Government censorship of social media speech platforms. Censorship proposals are to conservatives what price controls are to radical leftists: completely outlandish, unworkable, and usually unconstitutional fantasies of controlling things that are ultimately much harder to control than they realize. And the costs of even trying to impose and enforce such extremist controls are always enormous.

Earlier this year, The Wall Street Journal ran a response I wrote to a proposal set forth by columnist Peggy Noonan in which she proposed banning everyone under 18 from all social-media sites (“We Can Protect Children and Keep the Internet Free,” Apr. 15). I expanded upon that letter in an essay here entitled, “Should All Kids Under 18 Be Banned from Social Media?” National Review also recently published an article penned by Christine Rosen in which she also proposes to “Ban Kids from Social Media.” And just this week, Zach Whiting of the Texas Public Policy Foundation published an essay on “Why Texas Should Ban Social Media for Minors.”

I’ll offer a few more thoughts here in addition to what I’ve already said elsewhere. First, here is my response to the Rosen essay. National Review gave me 250 words to respond to her proposal:

While admitting that “law is a blunt instrument for solving complicated social problems,” Christine Rosen (“Keep Them Offline,” June 27) nonetheless downplays the radicalness of her proposal to make all teenagers criminals for accessing the primary media platforms of their generation. She wants us to believe that allowing teens to use social media is the equivalent of letting them operate a vehicle, smoke tobacco, or drink alcohol. This is false equivalence. Being on a social-media site is not the same as operating two tons of steel and glass at speed or using mind-altering substances. Teens certainly face challenges and risks in any new media environment, but to believe that complex social pathologies did not exist before the Internet is folly. Echoing the same “lost generation” claims made by past critics who panicked over comic books and video games, Rosen asks, “Can we afford to lose another generation of children?” and suggests that only sweeping nanny-state controls can save the day. This cycle is apparently endless: Those “lost generations” grow up fine, only to claim it’s the  next generation that is doomed! Rosen casually dismisses free-speech concerns associated with mass-media criminalization, saying that her plan “would not require censorship.” Nothing could be further from the truth. Rosen’s prohibitionist proposal would deny teens the many routine and mostly beneficial interactions they have with their peers online every day. While she belittles media literacy and other educational and empowerment-based solutions to online problems, those approaches continue to be a better response than the repressive regulatory regime she would have Big Government impose on society.

I have a few more things to say beyond these brief comments.

First, as I alluded to in my short response to Rosen, we’ve heard similar “lost generation” stories before. Rosen might as well be channeling the ghost of Dr. Fredric Wertham (author of Seduction of the Innocent), who in the 1950s declared comics books a public health menace and lobbied lawmakers to restrict teen access to them, insisting such comics were “the cause of a psychological mutilation of children.” The same sort of “lost generation” predictions were commonplace in countless anti-video game screeds of the 1990s. Critics were writing books with titles like Stop Teaching Our Kids to Kill and referring to video games as “murder simulators,” Ironically, just as the video game panic was heating up, juvenile crime rates were plummeting. But that didn’t stop the pundits and policymakers from suggesting that an entire generation of so-called “vidiots” were headed for disaster. (See my 2019 short history: “Confessions of a ‘Vidiot’: 50 Years of Video Games & Moral Panics“).

It is consistently astonishing to me how, as I noted in 2012 essay, “We Always Sell the Next Generation Short.” There seems to be a never-ending cycle of generational mistrust. “There has probably never been a generation since the Paleolithic that did not deplore the fecklessness of the next and worship a golden memory of the past,” notes Matt Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist.

For example, in 1948, the poet T. S. Eliot declared: “We can assert with some confidence that our own period is one of decline; that the standards of culture are lower than they were fifty years ago; and that the evidences of this decline are visible in every department of human activity.” We’ve heard parents (and policymakers) make similar claims about every generation since then.

What’s going on here? Why does this cycle of generational pessimism and mistrust persist? In a 1992 journal article, the late journalism professor Margaret A. Blanchard offered this explanation:

“[P]arents and grandparents who lead the efforts to cleanse today’s society seem to forget that they survived alleged attacks on their morals by different media when they were children. Each generation’s adults either lose faith in the ability of their young people to do the same or they become convinced that the dangers facing the new generation are much more substantial than the ones they faced as children.”

In a 2009 book on culture, my colleague Tyler Cowen also noted how, “Parents, who are entrusted with human lives of their own making, bring their dearest feelings, years of time, and many thousands of dollars to their childrearing efforts.” Unsurprisingly, therefore, “they will react with extreme vigor against forces that counteract such an important part of their life program.” This explains why “the very same individuals tend to adopt cultural optimism when they are young, and cultural pessimism once they have children,” Cowen says.

Building on Blanchard and Cowen’s observation, I have explained how the most simple explanation for this phenomenon is that many parents and cultural critics have passed through their “adventure window.” The willingness of humans to try new things and experiment with new forms of culture—our “adventure window”—fades rapidly after certain key points in life, as we gradually settle in our ways. As the English satirist Douglas Adams once humorously noted: “Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works. Anything that’s invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it. Anything invented after you’re thirty-five is against the natural order of things.”

There is no doubt social media can create or exacerbate certain social pathologies among youth. But pro-censorship conservatives wants to take the easy way out with a Big Government media ban for the ages.

Ultimately, it’s a solution that will not be effective. Raising children and mentoring youth is certainly the hardest task we face as adults because simple solutions rarely exist to complex human challenges–and the issues kids face are often particularly hard for many parents and adults to grapple with because we often fail to fully understand both the unique issues each generation might face, and we definitely fail to fully grasp the nature of each new medium that youth embrace.  Simplistic solution–even proposals for outright bans–will not work or solve serious problems.

An outright government ban on online platforms or digital devices is likely never going to happen due to First Amendment constraints, but even ignoring the jurisprudential barriers, bans won’t work for a reason that these conservatives never bother considering: Many parents will help their kids get access to those technologies and to evade restrictions on their use. Countless parents already do so in violation of COPPA rules, and not just because they worry that their kid won’t have access to what some other kids have. Rather, many parents (like me) both wanted to make sure I could more easily communicate with them, and also ensure that they could enjoy those technologies and use them to explore the world.

These conservatives might think some parents like me are monsters for allowing my (now grown) children to get on social media when they were teens. I wasn’t blind to the challenges, but recognized that sticking one’s head in the ground or hoping for divine intervention from the Nanny State was impractical and unwise. The hardest conversations I ever had with my kids were about the ugliness they sometimes experienced online, but those conversations were also countered by the many joys that I knew online interactions brought them. Shall I tell you about everything my son learned online before 13 about building model rockets or soapbox derby cars? Or the countless sites my daughter visited gathering ideas for her arts and crafts projects when, before the age of 13, she started hand-painting and selling jean jackets (eventually prompting her to pursue an art school degree)? Again, as I noted in my National Review response, Rosen’s prohibitionist proposal would deny teens these experiences and the countless other routine and entirely beneficial interactions that they have with their peers online every day.

There is simply no substitute for talking to your kids in the most open, understanding, and loving fashion possible. My #1 priority with my own children was not foreclosing all the new digital media platforms and devices at their disposal. That was going to be almost impossible. Other approaches are needed.

Yes, of course, the world can be an ugly place. I mean, have you ever watched the nightly news on television? It’s damn ugly. Shouldn’t we block youth access to it when scenes of war and violence are shown? Newspapers are full of ugliness, too. Should a kid be allowed to see the front page of the paper when it discusses or shows the aftermath of school shootings, acts of terrorism, or even just natural disasters? I could go on, but you get the point. And you could try to claim that somehow today’s social media environment is significantly worse for kids than the mass media of old, but you cannot prove it.

Of course you’ll have anecdotes, and many of them will again point to complex social pathologies. But I have entire shelves full of books on my office wall that made similar claims about the effects of books, the telephone, radio and television, comics, cable TV, every musical medium ever, video games, and advertising efforts across all these mediums. Hundreds upon hundreds of studies were done over the past half century about the effects of depictions of violence in movies, television, and video games. And endless court battles ensued.

In the end, nothing came out of it because the literature was inconclusive and frequently contradictory. After many years of panicking about youth and media violence, in 2020, the American Psychological Association issued a new statement slowly reversing course on misguided past statements about video games and acts of real-world violence. The APA’s old statement said that evidence “confirms [the] link between playing violent video games and aggression.”  But the APA has come around and now says that, “there is insufficient scientific evidence to support a causal link between violent video games and violent behavior.” More specifically, the APA now says: “Violence is a complex social problem that likely stems from many factors that warrant attention from researchers, policy makers and the public. Attributing violence to violent video gaming is not scientifically sound and draws attention away from other factors.”

This is exactly what we should expect to find true for youth and social media. Most of the serious scholars in the field already note studies and findings about youth and social media must be carefully evaluated and that many other factors need to be considered whenever evaluating claims about complex social phenomenon.

While Rosen belittles media literacy and other educational and empowerment-based solutions to online problems, those approaches continue to represent the best first-order response when compared to the repressive regulatory regime she would impose on society.

Finally, I want to just reiterate what I said in my brief  National Review response about the enormous challenges associated with mass criminalization or speech platforms. Rosen seems to image that all the costs and controversies will lie on the supply-side of social media. Just call for a ban and then magically all kids disappear from social media and the big evil tech capitalists eat all the costs and hassles. Nonsense. It’s the demand-side of criminalization efforts where the most serious costs lie. What do you really think kids are going to do if Uncle Sam suddenly does ban everyone under 18 from going on a “social media site,” whatever that very broad term entails? This will become another sad chapter in the history of Big Government prohibitionist efforts that fail miserably, but not before declaring mass groups of people criminals–this time including everyone under 18–and then trying to throw the book at them when they seek to avoid those repressive controls. There are better ways to address these problems than with such extremist proposals.

Additional Reading from Adam Thierer on Media & Content Regulation :

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/07/05/again-we-should-not-ban-all-teens-from-social-media/feed/ 1 77004 The Proper Governance Default for AI https://techliberation.com/2022/05/26/the-proper-governance-default-for-ai/ https://techliberation.com/2022/05/26/the-proper-governance-default-for-ai/#comments Thu, 26 May 2022 20:15:21 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76994

[This is a draft of a section of a forthcoming study on “A Flexible Governance Framework for Artificial Intelligence,” which I hope to complete shortly. I welcome feedback. I have also cross-posted this essay at Medium.]

Debates about how to embed ethics and best practices into AI product design is where the question of public policy defaults becomes important. To the extent AI design becomes the subject of legal or regulatory decision-making, a choice must be made between two general approaches: the precautionary principle or the proactionary principle.[1] While there are many hybrid governance approaches in between these two poles, the crucial issue is whether the initial legal default for AI technologies will be set closer to the red light of the precautionary principle (i.e., permissioned innovation) or to the green light of the proactionary principle (i.e., (permissionless innovation). Each governance default will be discussed.

The Problem with the Precautionary Principle as the Policy Default for AI

The precautionary principle holds that innovations are to be curtailed or potentially even disallowed until the creators of those new technologies can prove that they will not cause any theoretical harms. The classic formulation of the precautionary principle can be found in the “Wingspan Statement,” which was formulated at an academic conference that took place at the Wingspread Conference Center in Wisconsin in 1998. It read: “Where an activity raises threats of harm to the environment or human health, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically.”[2] There have been many reformulations of the precautionary principle over time but, as legal scholar Cass Sunstein has noted, “in all of them, the animating idea is that regulators should take steps to protect against potential harms, even if causal chains are unclear and even if we do not know that those harms will come to fruition.”[3] Put simply, under almost all varieties of the precautionary principle, innovation is treated as “guilty until proven innocent.”[4] We can also think of this as permissioned innovation.

The logic animating the precautionary principle reflects a well-intentioned desire to play it safe in the face of uncertainty. The problem lies in the way this instinct gets translated into law and regulation. Making the precautionary principle the public policy default for any given technology or sector has a strong bearing on how much innovation we can expect to flow from it. When trial-and-error experimentation is preemptively forbidden or discouraged by law, it can limit many of the positive outcomes that typically accompany efforts by people to be creative and entrepreneurial. This can, in turn, give rise to different risks for society in terms of forgone innovation, growth, and corresponding opportunities to improve human welfare in meaningful ways.

St. Thomas Aquinas once observed that if the sole goal of a captain were to preserve their ship, the captain would keep it in port forever. But that clearly is not the captain’s highest goal. Aquinas was making a simple but powerful point: There can be no reward without some effort and even some risk-taking. Ship captains brave the high seas because they are in search of a greater good, such as recognition, adventure, or income. Keeping ships in port forever would preserve their vessels, but at what cost?

Similarly, consider the wise words of Wilbur Wright, who pioneered human flight. Few people better understood the profound risks associated with entrepreneurial activities. After all, Wilbur and his brother were trying to figure out how to literally lift humans off the Earth. The dangers were real, but worth taking. “If you are looking for perfect safety,” Wright said, “you would do well to sit on a fence and watch the birds.” Humans would have never taken to the skies if the Wright brothers had not gotten off the fence and taken the risks they did. Risk-taking drives innovation and, over the long-haul, improves our well-being.[5] Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

These lessons can be applied to public policy by considering what would happen if, in the name of safety, public officials told captains to never leave port or told aspiring pilots to never leave the ground. The opportunity cost of inaction can be hard to quantify, but it should be clear that if we organized our entire society around a rigid application of the precautionary principle, progress and prosperity would suffer.

Heavy-handed preemptive restraints on creative acts can have deleterious effects because they raise barriers to entry, increase compliance costs, and create more risk and uncertainty for entrepreneurs and investors. Thus, it is the unseen costs—primarily in the form of forgone innovation opportunities—that makes the precautionary principle so problematic as a policy default. This is why scientist Martin Rees speaks of “the hidden cost of saying no” that is associated with the precautionary principle.[6]

The precise way the precautionary principle leads to this result is that it derails the so-called learning curve by limiting opportunities to learn from trial-and-error experimentation with new and better ways of doing things.[7] The learning curve refers to the way that individuals, organizations, or industries are able to learn from their mistakes, improve their designs, enhance productivity, lower costs, and then offer superior products based on the resulting knowledge.[8] In his recent book, Where Is My Flying Car?, J. Storrs Hall documents how, over the last half century, “regulation clobbered the learning curve” for many important technologies in the U.S., especially nuclear, nanotech, and advanced aviation.[9] Hall shows how society was denied many important innovations due to endless foot-dragging or outright opposition to change from special interests, anti-innovation activists, and over-zealous bureaucrats.

In many cases, innovators don’t even know what they are up against because, as many scholars have noted, “the precautionary principle, in all of its forms, is fraught with vagueness and ambiguity.”[10] It creates confusion and fear about the wisdom of taking action in the face of uncertainty. Worst case thinking paralyzes regulators who aim to “play it safe” at all costs. The result is an endless snafu of red tape as layer upon layer of mandates build up and block progress. The result is what many scholars now decry as a culture of “vetocracy,” which describes the many veto points within modern political systems that hold back innovation, development and economic opportunity.[11] This endless accumulation of potential veto points in the policy process in the form of mandates and restrictions can greatly curtail innovation opportunities. “Like sediment in a harbor, law has steadily accumulated, mainly since the 1960s, until most productive activity requires slogging through a legal swamp,” says Philip K. Howard, chair of Common Good.[12] “Too much law,” he argues, “can have similar effects as too little law,” because:

People slow down, they become defensive, they don’t initiate projects because they are surrounded by legal risks and bureaucratic hurdles. They tiptoe through the day looking over their shoulders rather than driving forward on the power of their instincts. Instead of trial and error, they focus on avoiding error.[13]

This is exactly why it is important that policymakers not get too caught up in attempts to preemptively resolve every potential hypothetical worst case scenarios associated with AI technologies. The problem with that approach was succinctly summarized by the political scientist Aaron Wildavsky when he noted, “If you can do nothing without knowing first how it will turn out, you cannot do anything at all.”[14] Or, as I have stated in a book on this topic, “living in constant fear of worst-case scenarios—and premising public policy on them—means that best-case scenarios will never come about.”[15]

This does not mean society should dismiss all concerns about the risks surrounding AI. Some technological risks do necessitate a degree of precautionary policy, but proportionality is crucial, notes Gabrielle Bauer, a Toronto-based medical writer. “Used too liberally,” she argues, “the precautionary principle can keep us stuck in a state of extreme risk-aversion, leading to cumbersome policies that weigh down our lives. To get to the good parts of life, we need to accept some risk.”[16] It is not enough to simply hypothesize that certain AI innovations might entail some risk. The critics need to prove it using risk analysis techniques that properly weigh both the potential costs and benefits.[17] Moreover, when conducting such analyses, the full range of trade-offs associated with preemptive regulation must be evaluated. Again, where precautionary constraints might deny society life-enriching devices or services, those costs must be acknowledged.

Generally speaking, the most extreme precautionary controls should only be imposed when the potential harms in question are highly probable, tangible, immediate, irreversible, catastrophic, or directly threatening to life and limb in some fashion.[18] In the context of AI and ML systems, it may be the case that such a test is satisfied already for law enforcement use of certain algorithmic profiling techniques. And that test is satisfied for so-called “killer robots,” or autonomous military technology.[19] These are often described as “existential risks.” The precautionary principle is the right default in these cases because it is abundantly clear how unrestricted use would have catastrophic consequences. For similar reasons, governments have long imposed comprehensive restrictions on certain types of weapons.[20] And although nuclear and chemical technologies have many important applications, their use must also be limited to some degree even outside of militaristic applications because they can pose grave danger if misused.

But the vast majority of AI-enabled technologies are not like this. Most innovations should not be treated the same a hand grenade or a ticking time bomb. In reality, most algorithmic failures will be more mundane and difficult to foresee in advance. By their very nature, algorithms are constantly evolving because programs and systems are being endlessly tweaked by designers to improve them. In his books on the evolution of engineering and systems design, Henry Petroski has noted that “the shortcomings of things are what drive their evolution.”[21] The normal state of things is “ubiquitous imperfection,” he notes, and it is precisely that reality that drives efforts to continuously innovate and iterate.[22]

Regulations rooted in the precautionary principle hope to preemptively find and address product imperfections before any harm comes from them. In reality, and as explained more below, it is only through ongoing experimentation that we find both the nature of failures and the knowledge to know how to correct them. As Petroski observes, “the history of engineering in general, may be told in its failures as well as in its triumphs. Success may be grand, but disappointment can often teach us more.”[23] This is particularly true for complex algorithmic systems, where rapid-fire innovation and incessant iteration are the norm.

Importantly, the problem with precautionary regulation for AI is not just that it might be over-inclusive in seeking to regulate hypothetical problems that never develop. Precautionary regulation can also be under-inclusive by missing problematic behavior or harms that no one anticipated before the fact. Only experience and experimentation reveal certain problems.

In sum, we should not presume that there is a clear preemptive regulatory solution to every problem some people raise about AI, nor should we presume we can even accurately identify all such problems that might come about in the future. Moreover, some risks will never be eliminated entirely, meaning that risk mitigation is the wiser approach. This is why a more flexible bottom-up governance strategy focused on responsiveness and resiliency makes more sense than heavy-handed, top-down strategies that would only avoid risks by making future innovations extremely difficult if not impossible.

The “Proactionary Principle” is the Better Default for AI Policy

The previous section made it clear why the precautionary principle should generally not be used as our policy default if we hope to encourage the development of AI applications and services. What we need is a policy approach that:

  • objectively evaluates the concerns raised about AI systems and applications;
  • considers whether more flexible governance approaches might be available to address them; and,
  • does so without resorting to the precautionary principle as a first-order response.

The proactionary principle is the better general policy default for AI because it satisfies these three objectives.[24] Philosopher Max More defines the proactionary principle as the idea that policymakers should, “[p]rotect the freedom to innovate and progress while thinking and planning intelligently for collateral effects.”[25] There are different names for this same concept, including the innovation principle, which Daniel Castro and Michael McLaughlin of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation say represents the belief that “the vast majority of new innovations are beneficial and pose little risk, so government should encourage them.”[26] Permissionless innovation is another name for the same idea. Permissionless innovation refers to the idea that experimentation with new technologies and business models should generally be permitted by default.[27]

What binds these concepts together is the belief that innovation should generally be treated as innocent until proven guilty. There will be risks and failures, of course, but the permissionless innovation mindset views them as important learning experiences. These experiences are chances for individuals, organizations, and all of society to make constant improvements through incessant experimentation with new and better ways of doing things.[28] As Virginia Postrel argued in her 1998 book, The Future and Its Enemies, progress demands “a decentralized, evolutionary process” and mindset in which mistakes are not viewed as permanent disasters but instead as “the correctable by-products of experimentation.”[29] “No one wants to learn by mistakes,” Petroski once noted, “but we cannot learn enough from successes to go beyond the state of the art.”[30] Instead we must realize, as other scholars have observed, that “[s]uccess is the culmination of many failures”[31] and understand “failure as the natural consequence of risk and complexity.”[32]

This is why the default for public policy for AI innovation should, whenever possible, be more green lights than red ones to allow for the maximum amount of trial-and-error experimentation, which encourages ongoing learning.[33] “Experimentation matters,” observes Stefan H. Thomke of the Harvard Business School, “because it fuels the discovery and creation of knowledge and thereby leads to the development and improvement of products, processes, systems, and organizations.”[34]

Obviously, risks and mistakes are “the very things regulators inherently want to avoid,”[35] but “if innovators fear they will be punished for every mistake,” Daniel Castro and Alan McQuinn argue, “then they will be much less assertive in trying to develop the next new thing.”[36] And for all the reasons already stated, that would represent the end of progress because it would foreclose the learning process that allows society to discover new, better, and safer ways of doing things. Technology author Kevin Kelly puts it this way:

technologies must be evaluated in action, by action. We test them in labs, we try them out in prototypes, we use them in pilot programs, we adapt our expectations, we monitor their alterations, we redefine their aims as they are modified, we retest them given actual behavior, we re-direct them to new jobs when we are not happy with their outcomes.[37]

In other words, the proactionary principle appreciates the benefits that flow from learning by doing. The goal is to continuously assess and prioritize risks from natural and human-made systems alike, and then formulate and reformulate our toolkit of possible responses to those risks using the most practical and effective solutions available. This should make it clear that the proactionary approach is not synonymous with anarchy. Various laws, government bodies, and especially the courts play an important role in protecting rights, health, and order. But policies need to be formulated such that innovators and innovation are given the benefit of the doubt and risks are analyzed and addressed in a more flexible fashion.

Some of the most effective ways to address potential AI risks already exist in the form of “soft law” and decentralized governance solution. These will be discussed at greater length below. But existing legal remedies include various common law solutions (torts, class actions, contract law, etc), recall authority possessed by many regulatory agencies, and various consumer protection policies. Ex post remedies are generally superior to ex ante prior restraints if we hope to maximize innovation opportunities. Ex ante regulatory defaults are too often set closer to the red light of the precautionary principle and then enforced through volumes of convoluted red tape.

This is what the World Economic Forum has referred to as a “regulate-and-forget” system of governance,[38] or what others call a “build-and-freeze model” or regulation.[39] In such technological governance regimes, older rules are almost never revisited, even after new social, economic, and technical realities render them obsolete or ineffective.[40] A 2017 survey of U.S. Code of Regulations by Deloitte consultants revealed that 68 percent of federal regulations have never been updated and that 17 percent have only been updated once.[41] Public policies for complex and fast-moving technologies like AI cannot be set in stone and forgotten like that if America hopes to remain on the cutting edge of this sector.

Advocates of the proactionary principle look to counter this problem not by eliminating all laws or agencies, but by bringing them in line with flexible governance principles rooted in more decentralized approaches to policy concerns.[42] As many regulatory advocates suggest, it is important to embed or “bake in” various ethical best practices into AI systems to ensure that they benefit humanity. But this, too, is a process of ongoing learning and there are many ways to accomplish such goals without derailing important technological advances. What is often referred to as “value alignment” or “ethically-aligned design” is challenged by the fact that humans regularly disagree profoundly about many moral issues.[43] “Before we can put our values into machines, we have to figure out how to make our values clear and consistent,” says Harvard University psychologist Joshua D. Greene.[44]

The “Three Laws of Robotics” famously formulated decades ago by Isaac Asimov in his science fiction stories continue to be widely discussed today as a guide to embedding ethics into machines.[45] They read:

  1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  2. A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.

What is usually forgotten about these principles, as AI expert Melanie Mitchell reminds us, is the way Asimov, “often focused on the unintended consequences of programming ethical rules into robots,” and how he made it clear that, if applied too literally, “such a set of rules would inevitably fail.”[46]

This is why flexibility and humility are essential virtues when thinking about AI policy. The optimal governance regime for AI can be shaped by responsible innovation practices and embed important ethical principles by design without immediately defaulting to a rigid application of the precautionary principle.[47] In other words, an innovation policy regime rooted in the proactionary principle can also be infused with the same values that animate a precautionary principle-based system.[48] The difference is that the proactionary principle-based approach will look to achieve these goals in a more flexible fashion using a variety of experimental governance approaches and ex post legal enforcement options, while also encouraging still more innovation to solve problems past innovations may have caused.

To reiterate, not every AI risk is foreseeable, and many risks and harms are more amorphous or uncertain. In this sense, the wisest governance approach for AI was recently outlined by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in its initial draft AI Risk Management Framework, which is a multistakeholder effort “to describe how the risks from AI-based systems differ from other domains and to encourage and equip many different stakeholders in AI to address those risks purposefully.”[49] NIST notes that the goal of the Framework is:

to be responsive to new risks as they emerge rather than enumerating all known risks in advance. This flexibility is particularly important where impacts are not easily foreseeable, and applications are evolving rapidly. While AI benefits and some AI risks are well-known, the AI community is only beginning to understand and classify incidents and scenarios that result in harm.[50]

This is a sensible framework for how to address AI risks because it makes it clear that it will be difficult to preemptively identify and address all potential AI risks. At the same time, there will be a continuing need to advance AI innovation while addressing AI-related harms. The key to striking that balance will be decentralized governance approaches and soft law techniques described below.

[Note: The subsequent sections of the study will detail how decentralized governance approaches and soft law techniques already are helping to address concerns about AI risks.]

Endnotes:

[1]     Adam Thierer, Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, 2nd ed. (Arlington, VA: Mercatus Center at George Mason University, 2016): 1-6, 23-38; Adam Thierer, Evasive Entrepreneurs & the Future of Governance (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2020): 48-54.

[2]     “Wingspread Statement on the Precautionary Principle,” January 1998, https://www.gdrc.org/u-gov/precaution-3.html.

[3]     Cass R. Sunstein, Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2005). (“The Precautionary Principle takes many forms. But in all of them, the animating idea is that regulators should take steps to protect against potential harms, even if causal chains are unclear and even if we do not know that those harms will come to fruition.”)

[4]     Henk van den Belt, “Debating the Precautionary Principle: ‘Guilty until Proven Innocent’ or ‘Innocent until Proven Guilty’?” Plant Physiology 132 (2003): 1124.

[5]     H.W. Lewis, Technological Risk (New York: WW. Norton & Co., 1990): x. (“The history of the human race would be dreary indeed if none of our forebears had ever been willing to accept risk in return for potential achievement.”)

[6]     Martin Rees, On the Future: Prospects for Humanity (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2018): 136.

[7]     Adam Thierer, “Failing Better: What We Learn by Confronting Risk and Uncertainty,” in Sherzod Abdukadirov (ed.), Nudge Theory in Action: Behavioral Design in Policy and Markets (Palgrave Macmillan, 2016): 65-94.

[8]     Adam Thierer, “How to Get the Future We Were Promised,” Discourse, January 18, 2022, https://www.discoursemagazine.com/culture-and-society/2022/01/18/how-to-get-the-future-we-were-promised.

[9]     J. Storrs Hall, Where Is My Flying Car? (San Francisco: Stripe Press, 2021)

[10]    Derek Turner and Lauren Hartzell Nichols, “The Lack of Clarity in the Precautionary Principle,” Environmental Values, Vol 13, No. 4 (2004): 449.

[11]    William Rinehart, “Vetocracy, the Costs of Vetos and Inaction,” Center for Growth & Opportunity at Utah State University, March 24, 2022, https://www.thecgo.org/benchmark/vetocracy-the-costs-of-vetos-and-inaction; Adam Thierer, “Red Tape Reform is the Key to Building Again,” The Hill, April 28, 2022, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3470334-red-tape-reform-is-the-key-to-building-again.

[12]    Philip K. Howard, “Radically Simplify Law,” Cato Institute, Cato Online Forum, http://www.cato.org/publications/cato-online-forum/radically-simplify-law.

[13]    Ibid.

[14]    Aaron Wildavsky, Searching for Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1989): 38.

[15]    Thierer, Permissionless Innovation, at 2.

[16]    Gabrielle Bauer, “Danger: Caution Ahead,” The New Atlantis, February 4, 2022, https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/danger-caution-ahead.

[17]    Richard B. Belzer, “Risk Assessment, Safety Assessment, and the Estimation of Regulatory Benefits” (Mercatus Working Paper, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Arlington, VA, 2012), 5, http://mercatus.org/publication/risk-assessment-safety-assessment-and-estimation-regulatory-benefits; John D. Graham and Jonathan Baert Wiener, eds. Risk vs. Risk: Tradeoffs in Protecting Health and the Environment, (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995).

[18]    Thierer, Permissionless Innovation, at 33-8.

[19]    Adam Satariano, Nick Cumming-Bruce and Rick Gladstone, “Killer Robots Aren’t Science Fiction. A Push to Ban Them Is Growing,” New York Times, December 17, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/robot-drone-ban.html.

[20]    Adam Thierer, “Soft Law: The Reconciliation of Permissionless & Responsible Innovation,” in Adam Thierer, Evasive Entrepreneurs & the Future of Governance (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2020): 183-240, https://www.mercatus.org/publications/technology-and-innovation/soft-law-reconciliation-permissionless-responsible-innovation.

[21]    Henry Petroski, The Evolution of Useful Things (New York: Vintage Books, 1994): 34.

[22]    Ibid., 27,

[23]    Henry Petroski, To Engineer is Human: The Role of Failure in Successful Design (New York: Vintage, 1992): 9.

[24]    James Lawson, These Are the Droids You’re Looking For: An Optimistic Vision for Artificial Intelligence, Automation and the Future of Work (London: Adam Smith Institute, 2020): 86, https://www.adamsmith.org/research/these-are-the-droids-youre-looking-for.

[25]    Max More, “The Proactionary Principle (March 2008),” Max More’s Strategic Philosophy, March 28, 2008, http://strategicphilosophy.blogspot.com/2008/03/proactionary-principle-march-2008.html.

[26]    Daniel Castro & Michael McLaughlin, “Ten Ways the Precautionary Principle Undermines Progress in Artificial Intelligence,” Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, February 4, 2019, https://itif.org/publications/2019/02/04/ten-ways-precautionary-principle-undermines-progress-artificial-intelligence.

[27]    Thierer, Permissionless Innovation.

[28]    Thierer, “Failing Better.”

[29]    Virginia Postrel, The Future and Its Enemies (New York: The Free Press, 1998): xiv.

[30]    Henry Petroski, To Engineer is Human: The Role of Failure in Successful Design (New York: Vintage, 1992): 62.

[31]    Kevin Ashton, How to Fly a Horse: The Secret History of Creation, Invention, and Discovery (New York: Doubleday, 2015): 67.

[32]    Megan McArdle, The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well is the Key to Success (New York: Viking, 2014), 214.

[33]    F. A. Hayek, The Constitution of Liberty (London: Routledge, 1960, 1990): 81. (“Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”)

[34]    Stefan H. Thomke, Experimentation Matters: Unlocking the Potential of New Technologies for Innovation (Harvard Business Review Press, 2003), 1.

[35]    Daniel Castro and Alan McQuinn, “How and When Regulators Should Intervene,” Information Technology and Innovation Foundation Reports, (February 2015): 2 http://www.itif.org/publications/how-and-when-regulators-should-intervene.

[36]    Ibid.

[37]    Kevin Kelly, “The Pro-Actionary Principle,” The Technium, November 11, 2008, https://kk.org/thetechnium/the-pro-actiona.

[38]    World Economic Forum, Agile Regulation for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Geneva: Switzerland: 2020): 4, https://www.weforum.org/projects/agile-regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution.

[39]    Jordan Reimschisel and Adam Thierer, “’Build & Freeze’ Regulation Versus Iterative Innovation,” Plain Text, November 1, 2017, https://readplaintext.com/build-freeze-regulation-versus-iterative-innovation-8d5a8802e5da.

[40]    Adam Thierer, “Spring Cleaning for the Regulatory State,” AIER, May 23, 2019, https://www.aier.org/article/spring-cleaning-for-the-regulatory-state.

[41]    Daniel Byler, Beth Flores & Jason Lewris, “Using Advanced Analytics to Drive Regulatory Reform: Understanding Presidential Orders on Regulation Reform,” Deloitte, 2017, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/public-sector/articles/advanced-analytics-federal-regulatory-reform.html.

[42]    Adam Thierer, Governing Emerging Technology in an Age of Policy Fragmentation and Disequilibrium, American Enterprise Institute (April 2022), https://platforms.aei.org/can-the-knowledge-gap-between-regulators-and-innovators-be-narrowed.

[43]    Brian Christian, The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2020).

[44]    Joshua D. Greene, “Our Driverless Dilemma,” Science (June 2016): 1515.

[45]    Susan Leigh Anderson, “Asimov’s ‘Three Laws of Robotics’ and Machine Metaethics,” AI and Society, Vol. 22, No. 4, (2008): 477-493.

[46]    Melanie Mitchell, Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2019): 126 [Kindle edition.]

[47]    Thomas A. Hemphill, “The Innovation Governance Dilemma: Alternatives to the Precautionary Principle,” Technology in Society, Vol. 63 (2020): 6, https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/teinso/v63y2020ics0160791x2030751x.html.

[48]    Adam Thierer, “Are ‘Permissionless Innovation’ and ‘Responsible Innovation’ Compatible?” Technology Liberation Front, July 12, 2017, https://techliberation.com/2017/07/12/are-permissionless-innovation-and-responsible-innovation-compatible.

[49]    The National Institute of Standards and Technology, “AI Risk Management Framework: Initial Draft,” (March 17, 2022): 1, https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework.

[50]    Ibid., at 5.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/05/26/the-proper-governance-default-for-ai/feed/ 4 76994 Should All Kids Under 18 Be Banned from Social Media? https://techliberation.com/2022/04/18/should-all-kids-under-18-be-banned-from-social-media/ https://techliberation.com/2022/04/18/should-all-kids-under-18-be-banned-from-social-media/#respond Mon, 18 Apr 2022 15:00:00 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76966

This weekend, The Wall Street Journal ran my short letter to the editor entitled, “We Can Protect Children and Keep the Internet Free.” My letter was a response to columnist Peggy Noonan’s April 9 oped, “Can Anyone Tame Big Tech?” in which she proposed banning everyone under 18 from all social-media sites. She specifically singled out TikTok, Youtube, and Instagram and argued “You’re not allowed to drink at 14 or drive at 12; you can’t vote at 15. Isn’t there a public interest here?”

I briefly explained why Noonan’s proposal is neither practical nor sensible, noting how it:

would turn every kid into an instant criminal for seeking access to information and culture on the dominant medium of their generation. I wonder how she would have felt about adults proposing to ban all kids from listening to TV or radio during her youth. Let’s work to empower parents to help them guide their children’s digital experiences. Better online-safety and media-literacy efforts can prepare kids for a hyperconnected future. We can find workable solutions that wouldn’t usher in unprecedented government control of speech.

Let me elaborate just a bit because this was the focus of much of my writing a decade ago, including my book, Parental Controls & Online Child Protection: A Survey of Tools & Methods, which spanned several editions. Online child safety is a matter I take seriously and the concerns that Noonan raised in her oped have been heard repeatedly since the earliest days of the Internet. Regulatory efforts were immediately tried. They focused on restricting underage access to objectionable online content (as well as video games), but were immediately challenged and struck down as unconstitutionally overbroad restrictions on free speech and a violation of the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

But practically speaking, most of these efforts were never going to work anyway. There was almost no way to bottle up all the content flowing in the modern information ecosystem without highly repressive regulation, and it was going to be nearly impossible to keep kids off the Internet altogether when it was the dominant communications and entertainment medium of their generation. The first instinct of every moral panic wave–from the waltz to comic books to rock or rap music to video games–has often been to take the easy way out by proposing sweeping bans on all access by kids to the content or platforms of their generation. It never works.

Nor should it. There is a huge amount of entirely beneficial speech, content, and communications that kids would be denied by such sweeping bans. That would make such ban highly counter-productive. But, again, usually such efforts just were not practically enforceable because kids are often better at the cat-and-mouse game than adults give them credit for. Moreover, imposing age limitations of speech or content are far more difficult than age-related bans on specific tangible products, like tobacco or other dangerous physical products.

Acknowledging these realities, most sensible people quickly move on from extreme proposals like flat bans of all kids using the popular media platforms and systems of the day. Over the past half century in the U.S., this has led to a flowering of more decentralized governance approach to kids and media that I have referred to as the “3E approach.” That stands for empowerment (of parents), education (of youth), and enforcement (of existing laws). The 3E approach includes a variety of mechanisms and approaches, including: self-regulatory codes, private content rating systems, a wide variety of different parental control technologies, and much more.

Over the past two decades, many multistakeholder initiatives and blue-ribbon commissions were created to address online safety issues in a holistic fashion. I summarized their conclusions in my 2009 report, “Five Online Safety Task Forces Agree: Education, Empowerment & Self-Regulation Are the Answer.” The crucial takeaway from all these task forces and commissions is that no silver-bullet solutions exist to hard problems. Child safety demands a vigilant but adaptive approach, rooted in a variety of best practices, educational approaches, and technological empowerment solutions to address various safety concerns. Digital literacy is particularly crucial to building wiser, more resilient kids and adults, who can work together to find constructive approaches to hard problems.

Importantly, our task here is never done. This is an ongoing and evolving process. Issues like underage access to pornography or violent content have been with us for a very long time and will never be completely “solved.” We must constantly work to improve existing online safety mechanisms while also devising new solutions for our rapidly evolving information ecosystem. Nothing should be off the table except the one solution that Noonan suggested in her essay. Just proposing outright bans on kids on social media or any other new media platform (VR will be next) is an unworkable and illogical response that we should dismiss fairly quickly. No matter how well-intentioned such proposals may be, moral panic-induced prohibitions on kids and media ultimately are not going to help them learn to live better, safer, and more enriching lives in the new media ecosystems of today or the future. We can do better.

 

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/04/18/should-all-kids-under-18-be-banned-from-social-media/feed/ 0 76966 Tech Policy, Unintended Consequences & the Failure of Good Intentions https://techliberation.com/2019/09/26/tech-policy-unintended-consequences-the-failure-of-good-intentions/ https://techliberation.com/2019/09/26/tech-policy-unintended-consequences-the-failure-of-good-intentions/#respond Thu, 26 Sep 2019 19:09:20 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76601

by Andrea O’Sullivan & Adam Thierer

This essay originally appeared on The Bridge on September 25, 2019.

It is quickly becoming one of the iron laws of technology policy that by attempting to address one problem (like privacy, security, safety, or competition), policymakers often open up a different problem on another front. Trying to regulate to protect online safety, for example, might give rise to privacy concerns, or vice versa. Or taking steps to address online privacy through new regulations might create barriers to new entry, thus hurting online competition.

In a sense, this is simply a restatement of the law of unintended consequences. But it seems to be occurring with greater regularity in the technology policy today, and it serves as another good reminder why humility is essential when considering new regulations for fast-moving sectors.

Consider a few examples.

Privacy vs security & competition 

Many US states and the federal government are considering data privacy regulations in the vein of the European Union’s wide-reaching General Data Privacy Regulation (GDPR). But as early experiences with the GDPR and various state efforts can attest, regulations aimed at boosting consumer privacy can often butt against other security and competition concerns.

Consider how the GDPR can be abused to undermine user security—and ultimately (and ironically) privacy itself. At this year’s Black Hat computer security conference, one researcher recently explained how the GDPR’s “right of access” provision—which mandates that companies give users their personal data—can be exploited by malicious actors to steal personally identifiable information. If a hacker is convincing enough, he or she can use “social engineering” to pose as the target and coax companies to divulge the information. Without GDPR’s mandated reporting infrastructure, such an attack would be much harder.

Nor are malicious actors even necessary for the GDPR to undermine security. In 2018, a customer requested their Alexa voice recordings from Amazon. The company sent the data to the wrong person in an apparent case of human error. If mighty Amazon cannot rise to the challenge of error-free GDPR compliance, what hope do smaller outfits have?

Perhaps the biggest story about the GDPR, however, has been its malign effects on competition. After all, the law earned its nickname—the “Google Data Protection Regulation”—for a reason. Titans like Google and Facebook have dominated European ad tech market since the advent of the GDPR because they can shoulder compliance risks in a way that smaller vendors cannot. More ad money has flowed to Google’s coffers as a result.

But the GDPR applies to far more than just ad tech. Ventures as varied as publishing and virtual tabletop dice rollers have been forced to shutter their digital doors rather than risk the wrath of European data authorities.

Similar stories emanate from the US. Illinois’ biometric privacy law, which governs the use of technologies like facial recognition and fingerprint scanning, led to the prohibition of Google’s Arts and Culture app which matched user-submitted photos with a classical work of art. If Google can’t hack it in the Land of Lincoln, how could a potential Google-slayer be expected to do so?

These are just the stories we hear about. A prematurely thwarted venture is unlikely to have a platform to voice their compliance problems. What is clear is that the data privacy laws enacted so far have had predictable negative impacts on security and competition, and that ill-defined “privacy fundamentalism” too often drives ill-fitting policies.

Safety vs. free speech & competition

Content moderation at scale is extremely challenging, especially as it relates to efforts to address “hate speech” and extremist viewpoints. On the one hand, free speech activists argue that onerous private content moderation policies can limit debate and punish certain viewpoints, particularly if a platform is a public default for expression. On the other hand, social justice activists contend that lax private standards can fuel the proliferation of conspiracy theories, radicalization, and violent rhetoric.

Recently, President Trump and some conservative lawmakers have been clamoring for greater regulatory controls of social media platforms in the name of “fairness” and countering supposed anti-conservative bias. Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), for example, have introduced a bill that would require platforms to submit their content moderation policies to regular regulatory audits. If a platform is deemed to be not “politically neutral,” it will lose its liability protections under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act.

This is reminiscent of the “fairness doctrine,” a long-standing Federal Communications Commission (FCC) policy that was a thinly-veiled attempt to influence the political content of broadcast programs. Conservatives rightly opposed such government involvement in content decisions in decades past, but with this new effort against technology platforms, many of them are repeating the mistakes of the past.

The history of the actual fairness doctrine serves as a cautionary tale here. Today the fairness doctrine is mostly remembered as an anti-conservative effort because of the attention paid to right-leaning talk radio. Former Kennedy administration official Bill Ruder admitted that their “massive strategy was to use the [fairness doctrine] to challenge and harass right-wing broadcasters, and hope that the challenges would be so costly to them that they would be inhibited and decide it was too costly to continue.”

But as testaments from previous broadcast leaders point out, the fairness doctrine was wielded against both “conservatives” and “liberals” depending on who was in power and what their objectives were. When the Nixon administration took office, they wielded the rule to muzzle broadcasters who criticized the White House. And the FCC also applied the doctrine against The Kingmen’s song “Louie Louie” for its suspiciously unintelligible lyrics.

The tension between policies to promote “safety” and government-protected rights to free speech can be literal, as well. Consider efforts to ban so-called “3-D printed guns.” Defense Distributed and other activists do not 3-D print and sell guns. Rather, they publish the schematics for others to print their own arms online. As with the encryption technologies we will discuss below, such code is probably First Amendment-protected speech, although the applications of the schematics may be considered “dual-use” (meaning with both civilian and military applications.) An outright ban on 3-D printed gun blueprints very clearly antagonizes the right to free speech in the US and could threaten innovation in other open source, peer-to-peer 3D-printed applications.

Safety vs. privacy & security

Efforts to promote “safety” can also too often backfire at the expense of privacy and security.

Perhaps the most dramatic and high-stakes illustration of this principle was the years-long legal drama that pitted law enforcement authorities against computer scientists in the so-called “Crypto Wars.” Although cryptographic technologies that conceal data for privacy or security have been around since the days of ancient Egypt—our own Founding Fathers are known to have communicated using ciphers—in the 20th century, they had mostly been limited to military and academic institutions.

The advent of public-key cryptography made these security techniques more accessible to the public for the first time. This was great news for information security: communications and devices could be made hardened to attacks, and people were given more privacy options. But law enforcement feared that criminals would use cryptography to cover their tracks. Thus, in the name of safety, law enforcement first tried banning cryptography as a dual use technology through munitions export controls. When that failed on First Amendment grounds, policymakers attempted to legislate “backdoors” into encryption protocols that would allow government access.

It is easy to see how outright bans or backdoors for encryption technologies could hurt privacy and security. Obviously, prohibiting the civilian use of a privacy and security technology limits privacy and security. But granting government access into encryption standards would ironically ultimately undermine safety as well. After all, if a government can get into an encryption standard, so might a malicious hacker. Although the “Crypto Wars” seemed settled in the 1990’s, these same debates have been cropping up again as more and more devices have default encryption technologies.

We can also think about mandated reporting requirements intended to promote public safety. Consider the “know your customer” rules imposed on financial institutions. To prevent ills like money laundering and financial fraud, banks and exchanges must keep detailed customer information on file. Yet this ostensibly “pro-safety” rule generates its own security and privacy risks. Banks must manage to responsibly store and protect this valuable customer data, lest their customers’ information get hacked and their identities stolen. This has sadly too often proven too tall an order, and third-party-managed personally identifiable information is exposed to outside parties all the time.

A similar problem arises with efforts to promote child safety online. Consider the debate over MySpace’s age verification efforts in the mid-2000s. Child safety advocates grew concerned over the risks facing children on new social media platforms. Young children lacking awareness of the dangers that could lurk online could unwittingly make friendships with predators posing as other children. So a movement grew to require these new platforms to verify age and identity with a government-provided identification card.

There were obvious technical problems. For starters, children that were young enough to fall under the age verification limit were unlikely to have a government-provided photo identification card. But beyond these simple administrative issues, there was the question of privacy and security. Could Myspace adequately protect the reams of sensitive data from outside breach? Might children actually be put more at danger should those items—which would likely include the children’s address—fall into the wrong hands? And should the government and social media platforms really be in the business of parenting to begin with? Might this actually create a “moral hazard” which leaves parents thinking that online spaces are safer than they actually are?

Tying it all together

In each of these instances, it probably seemed like there was no downside to newly proposed regulations. With time, however, the dynamic effects associated with those policies become evident, and often result in the opposite of what was intended, or the policies led to other problems that supporters did not originally envision.

The nineteenth-century French economic philosopher Frédéric Bastiat famously explained the importance of considering the many unforeseen, second-order effects of economic change and policy. Many pundits and policy analysts pay attention to only the first-order effects—what Bastiat called “the seen”—and ignore the subsequent and often “unseen” effects. Those unseen effects can have profound real-world consequences in the form of less technological innovation, diminished growth, fewer job opportunities, higher prices, diminished choices, and other costs.

Even when defenders of the failed interventions are forced to admit that their well-intentioned plans did not work out as planned, their response is typically of the  we-can-do-better variety. The result is usually just more regulation as one intervention begs another and another. As the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises taught us 70 years ago in his masterwork, Human Action:

“All varieties of interference with the market phenomena not only fail to achieve the ends aimed at by their authors and supporters, but bring about a state of affairs which—from the point of view of their authors’ and advocates’ valuations—is less desirable than the previous state affairs which they were designed to alter. If one wants to correct their manifest unsuitableness and preposterousness by supplementing the first acts of intervention with more and more of such acts, one must go farther and farther…”

The lesson is clear: paternalistic public policies may sound sensible on the surface, but as Milton Friedman taught us long ago, “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results. We all know a famous road that is paved with good intentions.”

]]> https://techliberation.com/2019/09/26/tech-policy-unintended-consequences-the-failure-of-good-intentions/feed/ 0 76601 Thoughts on FTC Economic Liberty Task Force Report & Occupational Licensing Reform https://techliberation.com/2018/09/25/thoughts-on-ftc-economic-liberty-task-force-report-occupational-licensing-reform/ https://techliberation.com/2018/09/25/thoughts-on-ftc-economic-liberty-task-force-report-occupational-licensing-reform/#respond Tue, 25 Sep 2018 19:47:37 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76385

Over at the Mercatus Center Bridge blog, Trace Mitchell and I just posted an essay entitled, “A Non-Partisan Way to Help Workers and Consumers,” which discusses the new Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) Economic Liberty Task Force report on occupational licensing.

We applaud the FTC’s calls for greater occupational licensing uniformity and portability, but regret the missed opportunity to address root problem of excessive licensing more generally. But while FTC is right to push for greater occupational licensing uniformity and portability, policymakers need to confront the sheer absurdity of licensing so many jobs that pose zero risk to public health & safety. Licensing has become completely detached from risk realities and actual public needs.

As the FTC notes, excessive licensing limits employment opportunities, worker mobility, and competition while also “resulting in higher prices, reduced quality, and less convenience for consumers.” These are unambiguous facts that are widely accepted by experts of all stripes. Both the Obama and Trump Administrations, for example, have been completely in league on the need for comprehensive  licensing reforms.

Trace and I argue that we need serious occupational reforms built on the idea of the “right to earn a living” that must pass this test: “All occupational regulations shall be limited to those demonstrably necessary and carefully tailored to fulfill legitimate public health, safety, or welfare objectives.”  Also, all licensing authorities should be put on the clock and be required, within one year, to reassess the wisdom of all existing licenses to ensure they meet that test. If not, they are repealed or reformed.

In recent testimony in Texas, our Mercatus Center colleague Matthew Mitchell has also discussed other reform options, including the “Occupational Board Reform Act,” which recently passed in Nebraska. The goal of the law is to “protect the fundamental right of an individual to pursue a lawful occupation;.” They key provision of the Act demands that state actors:

use the least restrictive regulation which is necessary to protect consumers from undue risk of present, significant, and substantiated harms that clearly threaten or endanger the health, safety, or welfare of the public when competition alone is not sufficient and which is consistent with the public interest;

That’s an excellent approach to reform and when combined with the Right to Earn a Living Act, policymakers can begin to reverse the protectionist, anti-competitive licensing schemes that encumber entrepreneurs and workers across the land.

In forthcoming work, I hope to more fully develop the connection between the right to earn a living, the need for comprehensive licensing reform, and the freedom to innovate more generally. In the meantime, hop over to The Bridge to read our new essay on how the FTC report helps advance this cause..

]]> https://techliberation.com/2018/09/25/thoughts-on-ftc-economic-liberty-task-force-report-occupational-licensing-reform/feed/ 0 76385 new Mercatus paper on “Public Policy for Virtual and Augmented Reality” https://techliberation.com/2017/09/25/new-mercatus-paper-on-public-policy-for-virtual-and-augmented-reality/ https://techliberation.com/2017/09/25/new-mercatus-paper-on-public-policy-for-virtual-and-augmented-reality/#comments Mon, 25 Sep 2017 17:26:15 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76192

The Mercatus Center at George Mason University has just released a new paper on,”Permissionless Innovation and Immersive Technology: Public Policy for Virtual and Augmented Reality,” which I co-authored with Jonathan Camp. This 53-page paper can be downloaded via the Mercatus website, SSRN or Research Gate.

Here is the abstract for the paper:

Immersive technologies such as augmented reality, virtual reality, and mixed reality are finally taking off. As these technologies become more widespread, concerns will likely develop about their disruptive social and economic effects. This paper addresses such policy concerns and contrasts two different visions for governing immersive tech going forward. The paper makes the case for permissionless innovation, or the general freedom to innovate without prior constraint, as the optimal policy default to maximize the benefits associated with immersive technologies. The alternative vision — the so-called precautionary principle — would be an inappropriate policy default because it would greatly limit the potential for beneficial applications and uses of these new technologies to emerge rapidly. Public policy for immersive technology should not be based on hypothetical worst-case scenarios. Rather, policymakers should wait to see which concerns or harms emerge and then devise ex post solutions as needed.

To better explain why precautionary controls on these emerging technologies would be such a mistake, Camp and I provide an inventory of the many VR, AR, and mixed reality applications that are already on the market–or soon could be–and which could provide society with profound benefits. A few examples include: 

  • Education and museums. Immersing users in virtual environments allows Google’s Expedition Pioneer Program to provide 360-degree video tours of famous landmarks and ruins, and museums are already using AR technology to provide interactive content.
  • Worker training and systems monitoring. VR industrial simulators such as ForgeFX are being used to train workers to master a variety of complex tasks, while AR systems can be leveraged to help farmers with crop management from afar.
  • Healthcare. CT scans and MRIs are being converted into 3-D models to perform surgery that was once thought impossible, and the world’s first VR medical training facility opened in London in November of 2016.
  • Engineering. Virtual modeling technology is being combined with VR to allow touring of unbuilt vehicles and buildings, lowering the costs of construction and design.
  • Military. The military has used VR for combat simulations, medic training, flight simulators, vehicle simulators, and even the treatment of PTSD.

And that just scratches the surface of some of the many exciting applications out there. The virtual sky is the limit with immersive tech — so long, that is, as we don’t derail these life-enriching technologies with misguided, fear-based public policy restrictions. Please read the paper for more details.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2017/09/25/new-mercatus-paper-on-public-policy-for-virtual-and-augmented-reality/feed/ 1 76192 DOT’s Driverless Cars Guidance: Will “Agency Threats” Rule the Future? https://techliberation.com/2016/09/20/dots-driverless-cars-guidance-will-agency-threats-rule-the-future/ https://techliberation.com/2016/09/20/dots-driverless-cars-guidance-will-agency-threats-rule-the-future/#comments Tue, 20 Sep 2016 21:12:15 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76082

Today, the U.S. Department of Transportation released its eagerly-awaited “Federal Automated Vehicles Policy.” There’s a lot to like about the guidance document, beginning with the agency’s genuine embrace of the potential for highly automated vehicles (HAVs) to revolutionize this sector and save thousands of lives annually in the process.

It is important we get HAV policy right, the DOT notes, because, “35,092 people died on U.S. roadways in 2015 alone” and “94 percent of crashes can be tied to a human choice or error.” (p. 5) HAVs could help us reverse that trend and save thousands of lives and billions in economic costs annually. The agency also documents many other benefits associated with HAVs, such as increasing personal mobility, reducing traffic and pollution, and cutting infrastructure costs.

I will not attempt here to comment on every specific recommendation or guideline suggested in the new DOT guidance document. I could nit-pick about some of the specific recommended guidelines, but I think many of the guidelines are quite reasonable, whether they are related to safety, security, privacy, or state regulatory issues. Other issues need to be addressed and CEI’s Marc Scribner does a nice job documenting some of them is his response to the new guidelines.

Instead of discussing those specific issues today, I want to ask a more fundamental and far-reaching question which I have been writing about in recent papers and essays: Is this guidance or regulation? And what does the use of informal guidance mechanisms like these signal for the future of technological governance more generally?

When Is “Voluntary” Really Mandatory?

The surreal thing about DOT’s new driverless car guidance is how the agency repeatedly stresses it “is not mandatory” and that the guidelines are voluntary in nature but then — often in the same paragraph or sentence — the agency hints how it might convert those recommendations into regulations in the near future. Consider this paragraph on pg. 11 of the DOT’s new guidance document:

The Agency expects to pursue follow-on actions to this Guidance, such as performing additional research in areas such as benefits assessment, human factors, cybersecurity, performance metrics, objective testing, and others as they are identified in the future. As discussed, DOT further intends to hold public workshops and obtain public comment on this Guidance and the other elements of the Policy. This Guidance highlights important areas that manufacturers and other entities designing HAV systems should be considering and addressing as they design, test, and deploy HAVs. This Guidance is not mandatory. NHTSA may consider, in the future, proposing to make some elements of this Guidance mandatory and binding through future regulatory actions. This Guidance is not intended for States to codify as legal requirements for the development, design, manufacture, testing, and operation of automated vehicles. Additional next steps are outlined at the end of this Guidance. [emphasis added.]

The agency continues on to request that “manufacturers and other entities voluntarily provide reports regarding how the Guidance has been followed,” but then notes how “[t]his reporting process may be refined and made mandatory through a future rulemaking.” (p. 15)

And so it goes throughout the DOT’s new “guidance” document. With one breath the DOT suggests that everything is informal and voluntary; with the next it suggests that some form of regulation could be right around the proverbial corner.

Agency Threats Are the Future of Technological Governance

What’s going on here? In essence, DOT’s driverless car guidance is another example of how “soft law” and “agency threats” are becoming the dominant governance models for fast-paced emerging technology.

As noted by Tim Wu, a proponent of such regimes, these agency threats can include “warning letters, official speeches, interpretations, and private meetings with regulated parties.” “Soft law” simply refers to any sort of informal governance mechanism that agencies might seek to use to influence private decision-making or in this case the future course of technological innovation.

The problem with agency threats, as my former Mercatus Center colleague Jerry Brito pointed out in a 2014 law review article, is that they are fundamentally undemocratic and represent a betrayal of the rule of law. The use of “threat regimes,” Brito argued, “places undue power in the hands of regulators unconstrained by predictable procedures.” Such regimes breed uncertainty by leaving decisions up to the whim of regulators who will be unconstrained by administrative procedures, legal precedents, and strict timetables. “[B]ecause it has no limiting principle,” Brito concluded, the agency threats model “leaves the regulatory process without much meaning” and “would obviously be ripe for abuse.”

The danger exists that we are witnessing gradual mission creep as the DOT’s “guidance” process slowly moves from being a truly voluntary self-certification process to something more akin to a pre-market approval process. Every “informal” request that DOT makes — even when those requests are just presented in the form of vague questions — opens the door to greater technocratic meddling in the innovation process by federal bureaucrats.

Coping with the Pacing Problem

Why are agencies like the DOT adopting this new playbook? In a nutshell, it comes down to the realization on their part that the “pacing problem” is now an undeniable fact of life.

I discussed the pacing problem at length in my recent review of Wendell Wallach’s important new book, A Dangerous Master: How to Keep Technology from Slipping beyond Our Control. Wallach nicely defined the pacing problem as “the gap between the introduction of a new technology and the establishment of laws, regulations, and oversight mechanisms for shaping its safe development.” “There has always been a pacing problem,” Wallach noted, but like other philosophers, he believes that modern technological innovation is occurring at an unprecedented pace, making it harder than ever to “govern” it using traditional legal and regulatory mechanisms.

Which is exactly why the DOT and whole lot of other agencies are now defaulting to soft law and agencies threat models as their old regimes struggle to keep up with the pace of modern technological innovation. As the DOT put it in its new guidance document: “The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities.” (p. 8)  More specifically, the agency notes that:

The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. To meet this challenge, we must rapidly build our expertise and knowledge to keep pace with developments, expand our regulatory capability, and increase our speed of execution. (p. 6)

Rarely has any agency been quite so blunt about how it is racing to get ahead of the pacing problem before it completely loses control of the future course of technological innovation.

But the DOT is hardly alone in its increased reliance on soft law governance mechanisms. In fact, I’m in the early research stages of a new paper about what soft law and agency threat models mean for the future of emerging technology and its governance. In that paper, I hope to document how many different agencies (FAA, FDA, FTC, FCC, NTIA, & DOT among others) are using some variant of soft law model to informally regulate the growing universe of emerging technologies out there today (commercial drones, connected medical devices, the Internet of Things, 3D printing, immersive technology, the sharing economy, driverless cars, and more.)

If nothing else, I would like to devise a taxonomy of soft law/agency threat models and then discuss the upsides and downsides of those models. If anyone has recommendations for additional reading on this topic, please let me know. The best thing I have seen on the issue is a 2013 book of collected essays on Innovative Governance Models for Emerging Technologies, edited by Gary E. Marchant, Kenneth W. Abbott and Braden Allenby. I’m surprised more hasn’t been written about this in law reviews or political science journals.

What Does It Mean for Innovation? And Accountable Government?

So, what does all this mean for the future of driverless cars, autonomous systems, and other emerging technologies? I think it’s both good and bad news.

The good news — at least from the perspective of those of us who want to see innovators freed up to experiment more without prior restraint — is that the technological genie is increasingly out of the bottle. Technology regulators are at an impasse and they know it. Their old regulatory regimes are doomed to always be one step behind the action. Thus, a lot of technological innovation is going to be happening before any blessing has been given to engage in those experiments.

The bad news is that the regulatory regimes of the future will become almost hopelessly arbitrary in terms of their contours and enforcement ceiling. Basically, in our new world of soft law and agency threats, you can tear up the Administrative Procedures Act and throw it out the window.  When regulatory agencies act in the future, they will do so in a sort of extra-legal Twilight Zone, where things are not always as they seem. Agencies will increasingly act like nagging nannies, constantly pressuring innovators to behave themselves. And sometimes that nagging will work, and sometimes it will even improve consumer welfare at the margin! It will work sometimes precisely because government still wields a mighty big hammer and no innovator wants to be nailed to the ground in the courts, or the court of public opinion for that matter. Thus, many — not all, but many — of those innovators will go along with whatever agencies like DOT suggests as “best practices” even if those guidelines are horribly misguided or have no force of law whatsoever. And because agencies know that many (perhaps most) innovators will fall in line with whatever “best practices” or “codes of conduct” that they concoct, it will reinforce the legitimacy of this model and become the new method of imposing their will on current or emerging technology sectors.

Again, agency threats won’t always work because some innovators will continue to engage in rough forms of “technological civil disobedience” and just ignore a lot of these informal guidelines and agency threats. Agencies will push back and seek to make an example of specific innovators (especially the ones with deep pockets) in order to send a message to every other innovator out there that they better fall in line or else!

But what that “or else!” moment or action looks like remains completely unclear. The problem with soft law is that, by its very nature, it is completely open-ended and fundamentally arbitrary. It is really just “ non-law law.” That’s the “legal regime” that will “govern” the emerging technologies of the present and the future.

Isn’t Soft Law Better Than the Alternative?

Now, here’s the funny thing about this messy, arbitrary, unaccountable world of soft law and agency threats: It is probably a hell of lot better than the old world we used to live in!

The old analog era regulatory systems were very top-down and command-and-control in orientation. These traditional regimes were driven by the desire of regulators to enforce policy priorities by imposing prior restraints on innovation and then selectively passing out permission slips to get around those rules.

As I noted in my latest book, the problem with those traditional regulatory systems is that they “tend to be overly rigid, bureaucratic, inflexible, and slow to adapt to new realities. They focus on preemptive remedies that aim to predict the future, and future hypothetical problems that may not ever come about. Worse yet, administrative regulation generally preempts or prohibits the beneficial experiments that yield new and better ways of doing things.” (Permissionless Innovation, p. 120)

For all the reasons I outlined in my book and other papers on these topics, “permissionless innovation” remains the superior policy default compared to precautionary principle-based prior restraints. But I am not so naïve as to expect that permissionless innovation will prevail in the policy world all of the time. Moreover, I am not one of those technological determinists who goes around saying that technology is an unstoppable force that relentlessly drives history, regardless of what policymakers say. I am more of a soft determinist who believes that technology often can be a major driver of history, but not without a significant shaping from other social, cultural, economic, and political forces.

Thus, as much as I worry about the new “soft law/agency threats” regime being arbitrary, unaccountable, and innovation-threatening, I know that the ideal of permissionless innovation will only rarely be our default policy regime. But I also don’t think we are going back the old regulatory regimes of the past and we absolutely wouldn’t want to anyway in light of the deleterious impacts those regimes had on innovation in practice.

The best bet for those of us who care about the freedom to innovate is to make sure that these soft law governance mechanisms have some oversight from Congress (unlikely) and the Courts (more likely) when agencies push too far with informal agency threats. Better yet, we can hope that the pace of technological change continues to accelerate and pressures agencies to only intervene to address the most pressing problems and then largely leaves the rest of the field wide open for continued experimentation with new and better ways of doing things.

But make no doubt about it, as today’s DOT guidance document for driverless cars makes clear, “agency threats” will increasingly shape the future of emerging technologies whether we like it or not.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2016/09/20/dots-driverless-cars-guidance-will-agency-threats-rule-the-future/feed/ 2 76082 Global Innovation Arbitrage: Driverless Cars Edition https://techliberation.com/2016/08/22/global-innovation-arbitrage-driverless-cars-edition/ https://techliberation.com/2016/08/22/global-innovation-arbitrage-driverless-cars-edition/#comments Mon, 22 Aug 2016 19:34:42 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76074

In previous essays here I have discussed the rise of “global innovation arbitrage” for genetic testing, drones, and the sharing economy. I argued that: “Capital moves like quicksilver around the globe today as investors and entrepreneurs look for more hospitable tax and regulatory environments. The same is increasingly true for innovation. Innovators can, and increasingly will, move to those countries and continents that provide a legal and regulatory environment more hospitable to entrepreneurial activity.” I’ve been working on a longer paper about this with Samuel Hammond, and in doing research on the issue, we keep finding interesting examples of this phenomenon.

The latest example comes from a terrific new essay (“Humans: Unsafe at Any Speed“) about driverless car technology by Wall Street Journal technology columnist L. Gordon Crovitz. He cites some important recent efforts by Ford and Google and he notes that they and other innovators will need to be given more flexible regulatory treatment if we want these life-saving technologies on the road as soon as possible. “The prospect of mass-producing cars without steering wheels or pedals means U.S. regulators will either allow these innovations on American roads or cede to Europe and Asia the testing grounds for self-driving technologies,” Crovitz observes. “By investing in autonomous vehicles, Ford and Google are presuming regulators will have to allow the new technologies, which are developing faster even than optimists imagined when Google started working on self-driving cars in 2009.” 

Alas, regulators at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration are more likely to continue to embrace a heavy-handed and highly precautionary regulatory approach instead of the sort of “permissionless innovation” approach to policy that could help make driverless cars a reality sooner rather than later. If regulators continue to take that path, it could influence the competitive standing of the U.S. in the race for global supremacy in this arena.

Crovitz cites a recent essay by innovation consultant Chunka Mui’s on this point: “The appropriate first-mover unit of innovation is not the car, or even the car company. It is the nation.” Mui uses the example of Singapore, where “the lead government agency [is] working to enhance Singapore’s position as a global business center” and has been inviting self-driving car developers to work with the island nation to avoid what Mui describes as “the tangled web of competition, policy fights, regulatory hurdles and entrenched interests governing the pace of driverless-car development and deployment in the U.S.”

That’s global innovation arbitrage in a nutshell and it would be a real shame if America was on the losing end of this competition. To make sure we’re not, Crovitz notes that U.S. policymakers need to avoid overly-precautionary “pre-market-approval steps” that “would give bureaucrats the power to pick which technologies can develop and which are banned. If that happens,” he notes, “the winner in the race to the next revolution in transportation is likelier to be Singapore than Detroit or Silicon Valley.”

Too true. Let’s hope that policymakers are listening before it’s too late.

 

Additional Reading:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2016/08/22/global-innovation-arbitrage-driverless-cars-edition/feed/ 1 76074 Wendell Wallach on the Challenge of Engineering Better Technology Ethics https://techliberation.com/2016/04/20/wendell-wallach-on-the-challenge-of-engineering-better-technology-ethics/ https://techliberation.com/2016/04/20/wendell-wallach-on-the-challenge-of-engineering-better-technology-ethics/#respond Wed, 20 Apr 2016 19:08:57 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76026

DM cover
On May 3rd, I’m excited to be participating in a discussion with Yale University bioethicist Wendell Wallach at the Microsoft Innovation & Policy Center in Washington, DC. (RSVP here.) Wallach and I will be discussing issues we write about in our new books, both of which focus on possible governance models for emerging technologies and the question of how much preemptive control society should exercise over new innovations.

Wallach’s latest book is entitled, A Dangerous Master: How to Keep Technology from Slipping beyond Our Control. And, as I’ve noted here recently, the greatly expanded second edition of my latest book, Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, has just been released.

Of all the books of technological criticism or skepticism that I’ve read in recent years—and I have read stacks of them!— A Dangerous Master is by far the most thoughtful and interesting. I have grown accustomed to major works of technological criticism being caustic, angry affairs. Most of them are just dripping with dystopian dread and a sense of utter exasperation and outright disgust at the pace of modern technological change.

Although he is certainly concerned about a wide variety of modern technologies—drones, robotics, nanotech, and more—Wallach isn’t a purveyor of the politics of panic. There are some moments in the book when he resorts to some hyperbolic rhetoric, such as when he frets about an impending “techstorm” and the potential, as the book’s title suggests, for technology to become a “dangerous master” of humanity. For the most part, however, his approach is deeper and more dispassionate than what is found in the leading tracts of other modern techno-critics.

Many Questions, Few Clear Answers

Wallach does a particularly good job framing the major questions about emerging technologies and their effect on society. “Navigating the future of technological possibilities is a hazardous venture,” he observes. “It begins with learning to ask the right questions—questions that reveal the pitfalls of inaction, and more importantly, the passageways available for plotting a course to a safe harbor.” (p. 7) Wallach then embarks on a 260+ page inquiry that bombards the reader with an astonishing litany of questions about the wisdom of various forms of technological innovation—both large and small. While I wasn’t about to start an exact count, I would say that the number of questions Wallach poses in the book runs well into the hundreds. In fact, many paragraphs of the book are nothing but an endless string of questions.

Thus, if there is a primary weakness with A Dangerous Master, it’s that Wallach spends so much time formulating such a long list of smart and nuanced questions that some readers may come away disappointed when they do not find equally satisfying answers. On the other hand, the lack of clear answers is also completely understandable because, as Wallach notes, there really are no simple answers to most of these questions.

Just Slow Down!

Moving on to substance, let me make clear where Wallach and I generally see eye-to-eye and where we part ways.

Generally speaking, we agree about the need to come up with better “soft governance” systems for emerging technologies, which might include multistakeholder process, developer codes of conduct, sectoral self-regulation, sensible liability rules, and so on. (More on those strategies in a moment.)

But while we both believe it is wise to consider how we might “bake-in” better ethics and norms into the process of technological development, Wallach seems much more inclined than me to expect that we will be able to pre-ordain (or potentially require?) all this happens before much of this experimentation and innovation actually moves forward. Wallach opens by asking:

Determining when to bow to the judgment of experts and whether to intervene in the deployment of a new technology is certainly not easy. How can government leaders or informed citizens effectively discern which fields of research are truly promising and which pose serious risks? Do we have the intelligence and means to mitigate the serious risks that can be anticipated? How should we prepare for unanticipated risks? (p. 6)

Again, many good questions here! But this really gets to the primary difference between Wallach’s preferred approach and my own: I tend to believe that many of these things can only be worked out through ongoing trial and error, the constant reformulation of the various norms that govern the process of innovation, and the development of sensible ex post solutions to some of the most difficult problems posed by turbulent technological change.

By contrast, Wallach’s generally attitude toward technological evolution is probably best summarized by the phrases: “Slow down!” and, “Let’s have a conversation about it first!” As he puts it in his own words: “Slowing down the accelerating adoption of technology should be done as a responsible means to ensure basic human safety and to support broadly shared values.” (p. 13)

But I tend to believe that it’s not always possible to preemptively determine which innovations to slow down, or even how to determine what those “shared values” are that will help us make this determination. More importantly, I worry that there are very serious potential risks and unintended consequences associated with slowing down many forms of technological innovation, which could improve human welfare in important ways. There can be no prosperity, after all, without a certain degree of risk-taking and disruption.

Getting Out Ahead of the Pacing Problem

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It’s not that Wallach is completely hostile to new forms of technological innovation or blind to the many ways those innovations might improve our lives. To the contrary, he does a nice job throughout the book highlighting the many benefits associated with various new technologies, or he is at least willing to acknowledge that there can be many downsides associated with efforts aimed at limiting research and experimentation with new technological capabilities.

Yet, what concerns Wallach most is the much-discussed issue from the field of the philosophy of technology, the so-called “pacing problem.” Wallach concisely defines the pacing problem as “the gap between the introduction of a new technology and the establishment of laws, regulations, and oversight mechanisms for shaping its safe development.” (p. 251) “There has always been a pacing problem,” he notes, but he is concerned that technological innovation—especially highly disruptive and potentially uncontrollable forms of innovation—is now accelerating at an absolutely unprecedented pace.

(Just as an aside for all the philosophy nerds out there…  Such a rigid belief in the “pacing problem” represents a techno-deterministic viewpoint that is, ironically, sometimes shared by technological skeptics like Wallach as well as technological optimists like Larry Downes and even many in the middle of this debate, like Vivek Wadhwa. See, for example, The Laws of Disruption by Downes and “Laws and Ethics Can’t Keep Pace with Technology” by Wadhwa. Although these scholars approach technology ethics and politics quite differently, they all seem to believe that the pace of modern technological change is so relentless as to almost be an unstoppable force of nature. I guess the moral of the story is that, to some extent, we’re all technological determinists now!)

Despite his repeated assertions that modern technologies are accelerating at such a potentially uncontrollable pace, Wallach nonetheless hopes we can achieve some semblance of control over emerging technologies before they reach a critical “inflection point.” In the study of history and science, an inflection point generally represents a moment when a situation and trend suddenly changes in a significant way and things begin moving rapidly in a new direction. These inflections points can sometimes develop quite abruptly, ushering in major changes by creating new social, economic, or political paradigms. As it relates to technology in particular, inflection points can refer to the moment with a particular technology achieves critical mass in terms of adoption or, more generally, to the time when that technology begins to profoundly transform the way individuals and institutions act.

Another related concept that Wallach discusses is the so-called “Collingridge dilemma,” which refers to the notion that it is difficult to put the genie back in the bottle once a given technology has reached a critical mass of public adoption or acceptance. The concept is named after David Collingridge, who wrote about this in his 1980 book, The Social Control of Technology. “The social consequences of a technology cannot be predicated early in the life of the technology,” Collingridge argued. “By the time undesirable consequences are discovered, however, the technology is often so much part of the whole economics and social fabric that its control is extremely difficult.”

On “Having a Discussion” & Coming Up with “a Broad Plan”

These related concepts of inflection points and the Collingridge dilemma constitute the operational baseline of Wallach’s worldview. “In weighing speedy development against long-term risks, speedy development wins,” he worries. “This is particularly true when the risks are uncertain and the perceived benefits great.” (p. 85)

Consequently, throughout his book, Wallach pleads with us to take what I will call Technological Time Outs. He says we need to pause at times so that we can have “a full public discussion” (p. 13) and make sure there is a “broad plan in place to manage our deployment of new technologies” (p. 19) to make sure that innovation happens only at “a humanly manageable pace” (p. 261) “to fortify the safety of people affected by unpredictable disruptions.” (p. 262) Wallach’s call for Technological Time Outs is rooted in his belief that “the accelerating pace [of modern technological innovation] undermines the quality of each of our lives.” (p. 263)

That is Wallach’s weakest assertion in the book and he doesn’t really offer much evidence to prove that the velocity of modern technological is hurting us rather than helping us, as many of us believe. Rather, he treats it as a widely accepted truism that necessitates some sort of collective effort to slow things down if the proverbial genie is about to exit the bottle, or to make sure those genies don’t get out of their bottles without a lot of preemptive planning regarding how they are to be released into the world. In the following passage on pg. 72, Wallach very succinctly summarizes his approach recommended throughout A Dangerous Master:

this book will champion the need for more upstream governance: more control over the way that potentially harmful technologies are developed or introduced into the larger society. Upstream management is certainly better than introducing regulations downstream, after a technology is deeply entrenched or something major has already gone wrong. Yet, even when we can access risks, there remain difficulties in recognizing when or determining how much control should be introduced. When does being precautionary make sense, and when is precaution an over-reaction to the risks? (p. 72)

Those who have read my Permissionless Innovation book will recall that I open by framing innovation policy debates in almost exactly the same way as Wallach suggests in that last line above. I argue in the first lines of my book that:

The central fault line in innovation policy debates today can be thought of as ‘the permission question.’  The permission question asks: Must the creators of new technologies seek the blessing of public officials before they develop and deploy their innovations? How that question is answered depends on the disposition one adopts toward new inventions and risk-taking, more generally.  Two conflicting attitudes are evident. One disposition is known as the ‘precautionary principle.’ Generally speaking, it refers to the belief that new innovations should be curtailed or disallowed until their developers can prove that they will not cause any harm to individuals, groups, specific entities, cultural norms, or various existing laws, norms, or traditions. The other vision can be labeled ‘permissionless innovation.’ It refers to the notion that experimentation with new technologies and business models should generally be permitted by default. Unless a compelling case can be made that a new invention will bring serious harm to society, innovation should be allowed to continue unabated and problems, if any develop, can be addressed later.

So, by contrasting these passages, you can see what I am setting up here is a clash of visions between what appears to be Wallach’s precautionary principle-based approach versus my own permissionless innovation-focused worldview.

How Much Formal Precaution?

But that would be a tad bit too simplistic because just a few paragraphs after Wallach makes the statement just above about “upstream management” being superior to ex post solutions formulated “after a technology is deeply entrenched,” Wallach begins slowly backing away from an overly-rigid approach to precautionary principle-based governance of technological processes and systems.

He admits, for example, that “precautionary measures in the form of regulations and governmental oversight can slow the development of research whose overall society impact will be beneficial,” (p. 26) and that can “be costly” and “slow innovation.” For countries, Wallach admits, this can have real consequences because “Countries with more stringent precautionary policies are at a competitive disadvantage to being the first to introduce a new tool or process.” (p. 74)

So, he’s willing to admit that what we might call a hard precautionary principle usually won’t be sensible or effective in practice, but he is far more open to soft precaution. But this is where real problems begin to develop with Wallach’s approach, and it presents us with a chance to turn the tables on him a bit and begin posing some serious questions about his vision for governing technology.

Much of what follows below are my miscellaneous ramblings about the current state of the intellectual dialogue about tech ethics and technological control efforts. I have discussed these issues at greater length in my new book as well as a series of essays here in past years, most notably: “On the Line between Technology Ethics vs. Technology Policy; “What Does It Mean to “Have a Conversation” about a New Technology?”; and, “Making Sure the “Trolley Problem” Doesn’t Derail Life-Saving Innovation.”

As I’ve argued in those and other essays, my biggest problem with modern technological criticism is that specifics are in scandalously short supply in this field! Indeed, I often find the lack of details in this arena to be utterly exasperating. Most modern technological criticism follows a simple formula:

TECHNOLOGY –>> POTENTIAL PROBLEMS –>> DO SOMETHING!

But almost all the details come in the discussion about the nature of the technology in question and the apparent many problems associated with it. Far, far less thought goes into the “DO SOMETHING!” part of the critics’ work. One reason for that is probably self-evident: There are no easy solutions. Wallach admits as much at many junctures throughout the book. But that doesn’t excuse the need for the critics to give us a more concrete blueprint for identifying and then potentially rectifying the supposed problems.

Of course, the other reason that many critics are short of specifics is because what they really mean when they quip how much we need to “have a conversation” about a new disruptive technology is that we need to have a conversation about stopping that technology.

Where Shall We Draw the Line between Hard and Soft Law?

But this is what I found most peculiar about Wallach’s book: He never really gives us a good standard by which to determine when we should look to hard governance (traditional top-down regulation) versus soft governance (more informal, bottom-up and non-regulatory approaches).

On one hand, he very much wants society to exercise greatly restraint and precaution when it comes to many of the technologies he and others worry about today. Again, he’s particularly concerned about the potential runaway development and use of drones, genetic editing, nanotech, robotics, and artificial intelligence. For at least one class of robotics—autonomous military robots—Wallach does call for immediate policy action in the form of an Executive Order to ban “killer” autonomous systems. (Incidentally, there’s also a major effort underway called the “Campaign to Stop Killer Robots” that aims to make such a ban part of international law through a multinational treaty.)

But Wallach also acknowledges the many trade-offs associated with efforts to preemptively controls on robotics and other technology. Perhaps for that reason, Wallach doesn’t develop a clear test for when the Precautionary Principle should be applied to new forms of innovation.

Clearly there are times when it is appropriate, although I believe it is only in an extremely narrow subset of cases. In the 2 nd Edition of my Permissionless Innovation book, I tried to offer a rough framework for when formal precautionary regulation (i.e., highly-restrictive policy defaults are necessary, such as operational restrictions, licensing requirements, research limitations, or even formal bans) might be necessary. I do not want to interrupt the flow of this review of Wallach’s book too much, so I have decided to just cut-and-paste that portion of Chapter 3 of my book (“When Does Precaution Make Sense?”) down below as an appendix to this essay.

The key takeaway of that passage from my book is that all of us who study innovation policy and the philosophy of technology—Wallach, myself, the whole darn movement—have done a remarkably poor job being specific about precisely when formal policy precaution is warranted. What is the test? All too often, we get lazy and apply what we might call an “I-Know-It-When-I-See-It” standard. Consider the possession of bazookas, tanks, and uranium. Almost all of us would agree that citizens should not be allowed to possess or use such things. Why? Well, it seems obvious, right? They just shouldn’t! But what is the exact standard we use to make that determination.

In coming years, I plan on spending a lot more time articulating a better test by which Precautionary Principle-based policies could be reasonably applied. Those who know me may be taken aback by what I just said. After all, I’ve spend many years explaining why Precautionary Principle-based thinking threatens human prosperity and should be rejected in the vast majority of cases. But that doesn’t excuse the lack of a serious and detailed exploration of the exact standard by which we determine when we should impose some limits on technological innovation.

Generally speaking, while I strongly believe that “permissionless innovation” should remain the policy default for most technologies, there certainly exists some scenarios where the threat of harm associated with a new innovation might be highly probable, tangible, immediate, irreversible, and catastrophic in nature. If so, that could qualify it for at least a light version of the Precautionary Principle. In a future paper or book chapter I’m just now starting to research, I hope to fuller develop those qualifiers and formulate a more robust test around them.

I would have very much liked to see Wallach articulate and defend a test of his own for when formal precaution would make sense. And, by extension, when should we default to soft precaution, or soft law and informal governance mechanisms for emerging technologies.

We turn to that issue next.

Toward Soft Governance & the Engineering of Better Technological Ethics

Even though Wallach doesn’t provide us with a test for determining when precaution makes sense or when we should instead default to soft governance, he does a much better job explaining the various models of soft law or informal governance that might help us deal with the potential negative ramifications of highly disruptive forms of technological change.

What Wallach proposes, in essence, is that we bake a dose of precautionary directly into the innovation process through a wide variety of informal governance/oversight mechanisms. “By embedding shared values in the very design of new tools and techniques, engineers improve the prospect of a positive outcome,” he claims. “The upstream embedding of shared values during the design process can ease the need for major course adjustments when it’s often too late.” (p. 261)

Wallach’s favored instrument of soft governance is what he refers to as “Governance Coordinating Committees” (GCCs). These Committees would coordinate “the separate initiatives by the various government agencies, advocacy groups, and representatives of industry” who would serve as “issue managers for the comprehensive oversight of each field of research.” (p. 250) He elaborates and details the function of GCCs as follows:

These committees, led by accomplished elders who have already achieved wide respect, are meant to work together with all the interested stakeholders to monitor technological development and formulate solutions to perceived problems. Rather than overlap with or function as a regulatory body, the committee would work together with existing institutions. (p. 250-51)

Wallach discussed the GCC idea in much greater detail in a 2013 book chapter he penned with Gary E. Marchant for a collected volume of essays on Innovative Governance Models for Emerging Technologies. (I highly recommend you pick up that book if you can afford it! Many terrific essays in that book on these issues.) In their chapter, Marchant and Wallach specify some of the soft law mechanisms we might use to instill a bit of precaution preemptively. These mechanisms include: “codes of conduct, statements of principles, partnership programs, voluntary programs and standards, certification programs and private industry initiatives.”

If done properly, GCCs could provide exactly the sort of wise counsel and smart recommendations that Wallach desires. In my book and many law review articles on various disruptive technologies, I have endorsed many of the ideas and strategies Wallach identifies. I’ve also stressed the importance of many other mechanisms, such as education and empowerment-based strategies that could help the public learn to cope with new innovations or use them appropriately. In addition, I’ve highlighted the many flexible, adaptive ex post remedies that can help when things go wrong. Those mechanisms include common law remedies such as product defects law, various torts, contract law, property law, and even class action lawsuits. Finally, I have written extensively about the very active role played by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and other consumer protection agencies, which have broad discretion to police “unfair and deceptive practices” by innovators.

Moreover, we already have a quasi-GCC model developing today with the so-called “multistakeholder governance” model that is often used in both informal and formal ways to handle many emerging technology policy issues.  The Department of Commerce (the National Telecommunications and Information Administration in particular) and the FTC have already developed many industry codes of conduct and best practices for technologies such as biometrics, big data, the Internet of Things, online advertising, and much more. Those agencies and others (such as the FDA and FAA) are continuing to investigate other codes or guidelines for things like advanced medical devices and drones, respectively. Meanwhile, I’ve heard other policymakers and academics float the idea of “digital ombudsmen,” “data ethicists,” and “private IRBs” (institutional review boards) as other potential soft law solutions that technology companies might consider. Perhaps going forward, many tech firms will have Chief Ethical Officers just as many of them today have Chief Privacy Officers or Chief Security Officers.

In other words, there’s already a lot of “soft law” activities going on in this space. And I haven’t even begun an inventory of the many other bodies or groups that already exist in each sector today that has set forth their own industry self-regulatory codes, but they exist in almost every field that Wallach worries about.

So, I’m not sure how much his GCC idea will add to this existing mix, but I would not be opposed to them playing the sort of coordinating “issue manager” role he describes. But I still have many questions about GCC’s, including:

  • How many of them are needed and how we will know which one is the definitive GCC for each sector or technology?
  • If they are overly formal in character and dominated by the most vociferous opponents of any particular technology, a real danger exists that a GCC could end up granting a small cabal a “heckler’s veto” over particular forms of innovation.
  • Alternatively, the possibility of “regulatory capture” could be a problem for some GCCs if incumbent companies come to dominate their membership.
  • Even if everything went fairly smoothly and the GCCs produced balanced reports and recommendations, future developers might wonder if and why they are to be bound by older guidelines.
  • And if those future developers choose not to play by the same set of guidelines, what’s the penalty for non-compliance?
  • And how are such guidelines enforced in a world where what I’ve called “global innovation arbitrage” is an increasing reality?

Challenging Questions for Both Hard and Soft Law

To summarize, whether we are speaking of “hard” or “soft” law approaches to technological governance, I am just not nearly as optimistic as Wallach seems to be that we will be able to find consensus on these three things:

(1) what constitutes “harm” in many of these circumstances;

(2) which “shared values” should prevail when “society” debates the shaping of ethics or guiding norms for emerging technologies but has highly contradictory opinions about those values (consider online privacy as a good example, where many people enjoy hyper-sharing while other demand hyper-privacy); and,

(3) that we can create a legitimate “governing body” (or bodies) that will be responsible for formulating these guidelines in a fair way without completely derailing the benefits of innovation in new fields and also remaining relevant for very long.

Nonetheless, as he and others have suggested, the benefit of adopting a soft law/informal governance approach to these issues is that it at least seeks to address these questions in more flexible and adaptive fashion. As I noted in my book, traditional regulatory systems “tend to be overly rigid, bureaucratic, inflexible, and slow to adapt to new realities. They focus on preemptive remedies that aim to predict the future, and future hypothetical problems that may not ever come about. Worse yet, administrative regulation generally preempts or prohibits the beneficial experiments that yield new and better ways of doing things.” ( Permissionless Innovation, p. 120)

So, despite the questions I have raised here, I welcome the more flexible soft law approach that Wallach sets forth in his book. I think it represents a far more constructive way forward when compared to the opposite “top-down” or “command-and-control” regulatory systems of the past. But I very much want to make sure that even these new and more flexible soft law approaches leave plenty of breathing room for ongoing trial-and-error experimentation with new technologies and systems.

Conclusion

In closing, I want to reiterate that not only did I appreciate the excellent questions raised by Wendell Wallach in A Dangerous Master, but I take them very seriously. When I sat down to revise and expand my Permissionless Innovation book last year, I decided to include this warning from Wallach in my revised preface: “The promoters of new technologies need to speak directly to the disquiet over the trajectory of emerging fields of research. They should not ignore, avoid, or superficially dampen criticism to protect scientific research.” (p. 28–9)

As I noted, in response to Wallach: “I take this charge seriously, as should others who herald the benefits of permissionless innovation as the optimal default for technology policy. We must be willing to take on the hard questions raised by critics and then also offer constructive strategies for dealing with a world of turbulent technological change.”

Serious questions deserve serious answers. Of course, sometimes those posing those questions fail to provide many answers of their own! Perhaps it is because they believe the questions answer themselves. Other times, it’s because they are willing to admit that easy answers to these questions typically prove quite elusive. In Wallach’s case, I believe it’s more the latter.

To wrap up, I’ll just reiterated that both Wallach and I share a common desire to find solutions to the hard questions about technological innovation. But the crucial question that probably separates his worldview and my own is this: Whether we are talking about hard or soft governance, how much faith should we place in preemptive planning vs. ongoing trial and error experimentation to solve technological challenges? Wallach is more inclined to believe we can divine these things with the sagacious foresight of “accomplished elders” and technocratic “issue managers,” who will help us slow things down until we figure out how to properly ease a new technology into society (if at all). But I believe that the only way we will find many of the answers we are searching for is by allowing still more experimentation with the very technologies that he and others seek to control the development of. We humans are outstanding problem-solvers and have the uncanny ability among all mammals to adapt to changing circumstances. We roll with the punches, learn from them, and become more resilient in the process. As I noted in my 2014 essay, “Muddling Through: How We Learn to Cope with Technological Change”:

we modern pragmatic optimists must continuously point to the unappreciated but unambiguous benefits of technological innovation and dynamic change. But we should also continue to remind the skeptics of the amazing adaptability of the human species in the face of adversity. [. . .] Humans have consistently responded to technological change in creative, and sometimes completely unexpected ways. There’s no reason to think we can’t get through modern technological disruptions using similar coping and adaptation strategies.

Will the technologies that Wallach fears bring about a “techstorm” that overwhelms our culture, our economy, and even our very humanity? It’s certainly possible, and we should continue to seriously discuss the issues that he and other skeptics raise about our expanding technological capabilities and the potential for many of them to do great harm. Because some of them truly could.

But it is equally plausible—in fact, some of us would say, highly probable—that instead of overwhelming us, we learn how to bend these new technological capabilities to our will and make them work for our collective benefit. Instead of technology becoming “a dangerous master,” we will instead make it our helpful servant, just as we have so many times before.

APPENDIX: When Does Precaution Make Sense?

[excerpt from chapter 3 of Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom. Footnotes omitted. See book for all references.]

But aren’t there times when a certain degree of precautionary policymaking makes good sense? Indeed, there are, and it is important to not dismiss every argument in favor of precautionary principle–based policymaking, even though it should not be the default policy rule in debates over technological innovation.

The challenge of determining when precautionary policies make sense comes down to weighing the (often limited) evidence about any given technology and its impact and then deciding whether the potential downsides of unrestricted use are so potentially catastrophic that trial-and-error experimentation simply cannot be allowed to continue. There certainly are some circumstances when such a precautionary rule might make sense. Governments restrict the possession of uranium and bazookas, to name just two obvious examples.

Generally speaking, permissionless innovation should remain the norm in the vast majority of cases, but there will be some scenarios where the threat of tangible, immediate, irreversible, catastrophic harm associated with new innovations could require at least a light version of the precautionary principle to be applied.  In these cases, we might be better suited to think about when an “anti-catastrophe principle” is needed, which narrows the scope of the precautionary principle and focuses it more appropriately on the most unambiguously worst-case scenarios that meet those criteria.

Precaution might make sense when harm is … Precaution generally doesn’t make sense for asserted harms that are …
Highly probable Highly improbable
Tangible (physical) Intangible (psychic)
Immediate Distant / unclear timeline
Irreversible Reversible / changeable
Catastrophic Mundane / trivial

 

But most cases don’t fall into this category. Instead, we generally allow innovators and consumers to freely experiment with technologies, and even engage in risky behaviors, unless a compelling case can be made that precautionary regulation is absolutely necessary.  How is the determination made regarding when precaution makes sense? This is where the role of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) and regulatory impact analysis is essential to getting policy right.  BCA represents an effort to formally identify the tradeoffs associated with regulatory proposals and, to the maximum extent feasible, quantify those benefits and costs.  BCA generally cautions against preemptive, precautionary regulation unless all other options have been exhausted—thus allowing trial-and-error experimentation and “learning by doing” to continue. (The mechanics of BCA are discussed in more detail in section VII.)

This is not the end of the evaluation, however. Policymakers also need to consider the complexities associated with traditional regulatory remedies in a world where technological control is increasingly challenging and quite costly. It is not feasible to throw unlimited resources at every problem, because society’s resources are finite.  We must balance risk probabilities and carefully weigh the likelihood that any given intervention has a chance of creating positive change in a cost-effective fashion.  And it is also essential to take into account the potential unintended consequences and long-term costs of any given solution because, as Harvard law professor Cass Sunstein notes, “it makes no sense to take steps to avert catastrophe if those very steps would create catastrophic risks of their own.”  “The precautionary principle rests upon an illusion that actions have no consequences beyond their intended ends,” observes Frank B. Cross of the University of Texas. But “there is no such thing as a risk-free lunch. Efforts to eliminate any given risk will create some new risks,” he says.

Oftentimes, after working through all these considerations about whether to regulate new technologies or technological processes, the best solution will be to do nothing because, as noted throughout this book, we should never underestimate the amazing ingenuity and resiliency of humans to find creative solutions to the problems posed by technological change.  (Section V discusses the importance of individual and social adaptation and resiliency in greater detail.) Other times we might find that, while some solutions are needed to address the potential risks associated with new technologies, nonregulatory alternatives are also available and should be given a chance before top-down precautionary regulations are imposed. (Section VII considers those alternative solutions in more detail.)

Finally, it is again essential to reiterate that we are talking here about the dangers of precautionary thinking as a public policy prerogative—that is, precautionary regulations that are mandated and enforced by government officials. By contrast, precautionary steps may be far more wise when undertaken in a more decentralized manner by individuals, families, businesses, groups, and other organizations. In other words, as I have noted elsewhere in much longer articles on the topic, “there is a different choice architecture at work when risk is managed in a localized manner as opposed to a society-wide fashion,” and risk-mitigation strategies that might make a great deal of sense for individuals, households, or organizations, might not be nearly as effective if imposed on the entire population as a legal or regulatory directive.

Finally, at times, more morally significant issues may exist that demand an even more exhaustive exploration of the impact of technological change on humanity. Perhaps the most notable examples arise in the field of advance medical treatments and biotechnology. Genetic experimentation and human cloning, for example, raise profound questions about altering human nature or abilities as well as the relationship between generations.

The case for policy prudence in these matters is easier to make because we are quite literally talking about the future of what it means to be human.  Controversies have raged for decades over the question of when life begins and how it should end. But these debates will be greatly magnified and extended in coming years to include equally thorny philosophical questions.  Should parents be allowed to use advanced genetic technologies to select the specific attributes they desire in their children? Or should parents at least be able to take advantage of genetic screening and genome modification technologies that ensure their children won’t suffer from specific diseases or ailments once born?

Outside the realm of technologically enhanced procreation, profound questions are already being raised about the sort of technological enhancements adults might make to their own bodies. How much of the human body can be replaced with robotic or bionic technologies before we cease to be human and become cyborgs?  As another example, “biohacking”—efforts by average citizens working together to enhance various human capabilities, typically by experimenting on their own bodies —could become more prevalent in coming years.  Collaborative forums, such as Biohack.Me, already exist where individuals can share information and collaborate on various projects of this sort.  Advocates of such amateur biohacking sometimes refer to themselves as “grinders,” which Ben Popper of the Verge defines as “homebrew biohackers [who are] obsessed with the idea of human enhancement [and] who are looking for new ways to put machines into their bodies.”

These technologies and capabilities will raise thorny ethical and legal issues as they advance. Ethically, they will raise questions of what it means to be human and the limits of what people should be allowed to do to their own bodies. In the field of law, they will challenge existing health and safety regulations imposed by the FDA and other government bodies.

Again, most innovation policy debates—including most of the technologies discussed throughout this book—do not involve such morally weighty questions. In the abstract, of course, philosophers might argue that every debate about technological innovation has an impact on the future of humanity and “what it means to be human.” But few have much of a direct influence on that question, and even fewer involve the sort of potentially immediate, irreversible, or catastrophic outcomes that should concern policymakers.

In most cases, therefore, we should let trial-and-error experimentation continue because “experimentation is part and parcel of innovation” and the key to social learning and economic prosperity.  If we froze all forms of technological innovation in place while we sorted through every possible outcome, no progress would ever occur. “Experimentation matters,” notes Harvard Business School professor Stefan H. Thomke, “because it fuels the discovery and creation of knowledge and thereby leads to the development and improvement of products, processes, systems, and organizations.”

Of course, ongoing experimentation with new technologies always entails certain risks and potential downsides, but the central argument of this book is that (a) the upsides of technological innovation almost always outweigh those downsides and that (b) humans have proven remarkably resilient in the face of uncertain, ever-changing futures.

In sum, when it comes to managing or coping with the risks associated with technological change, flexibility and patience is essential. One size most certainly does not fit all. And one-size-fits-all approaches to regulating technological risk are particularly misguided when the benefits associated with technological change are so profound. Indeed, “[t]echnology is widely considered the main source of economic progress”; therefore, nothing could be more important for raising long-term living standards than creating a policy environment conducive to ongoing technological change and the freedom to innovate.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2016/04/20/wendell-wallach-on-the-challenge-of-engineering-better-technology-ethics/feed/ 0 76026 The Failure of Good Intentions: Bike Helmet Laws Edition https://techliberation.com/2015/10/13/the-failure-of-good-intentions-bike-helmet-laws-edition/ https://techliberation.com/2015/10/13/the-failure-of-good-intentions-bike-helmet-laws-edition/#comments Tue, 13 Oct 2015 13:25:38 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=75862

One of my favorite themes, and not just in the field of tech policy, is the “Unintended Consequences of Well-Intentioned Regulations.” I believe that all laws and regulations have dynamic effects and that to fully appreciate the true impact of any particular public policy, you must always closely investigate the potential opportunity costs and unintended consequences associated with those policies. Because all too often laws and regulations are hastily put on the books with the very best of intentions in mind, only to later be shown to produce the opposite of what was intended.

Today’s case in point comes from a Wall Street Journal article by Rachel Bachman and it involves how the growing wave of cycling helmet laws are having a net negative impact on public health because they discourage ridership in the aggregate. Thus, those potential riders are then either (a) just less active overall or (b) driving their cars to get where they need to go. And both of those results are, ultimately, riskier than cycling without a helmet. For that reason, Bachman reports, cycling advocates “are pushing back against mandatory bike-helmet laws in the U.S. and elsewhere. They say mandatory helmet laws, particularly for adults, make cycling less convenient and seem less safe, thus hindering the larger public-health gains of more people riding bikes.” Supporting evidence comes from this 2012 paper in the journal Risk Analysis by Piet de Jong, a professor in the department of applied finance and actuarial studies at Sydney’s Macquarie University. His paper included an empirical model that showed how mandatory bike-helmet laws “have a net negative health impact.”

This strikes me as one of the very best examples of how to do dynamic benefit-cost analysis and show the full range of societal impacts associated with well-intentioned regulations. And it reminds me of the playground example I use in several of my papers: Laws and liability threats discouraged tall playground climbing structures in the ’80s and ’90s. As a result of those policies, kids have been shown to not only be less active on playgrounds over the past two decades, but even more interesting is the fact that some studies suggest this led to phobias and anxieties about heights later in life when those children became adults. Again, dynamic effects matter! In this case, social learning and resiliency was stunted when children lacked the ability to explore and push boundaries. In essence, it’s the “Boy in the Bubble” problem. [Read this 2012 law review article of mine for all the details on this particular case study.]

Of course, those of you who have read your Frédéric Bastiat have already identified these case studies as excellent examples of what the nineteenth-century French economic philosopher was talking about when he famously explained the importance of considering the many unforeseen, second-order effects of economic change and policy. Many pundits and policy analysts pay attention to only the first-order effects—what Bastiat called “the seen”—and ignore the subsequent and often “unseen” effects. In both these cases, policymakers were myopically obsessed with the short-term “seen” benefit of bike helmet laws or playground safety restrictions. At first blush, it probably seemed like their was no downside to such rules. Of course, a fuller exploration of the potential dynamic effects associated with those policies revealed the opposite effect: They discouraged public health in the aggregate.

Again, every action—especially political and regulatory action—has dynamic consequences. Paternalistic public policies may sound sensible on the surface, but as Milton Friedman taught us long ago, “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results. We all know a famous road that is paved with good intentions.”

[ Note: If you are interested in more examples like this, I encourage you to read, “The Unintended Consequences of Safety Regulation” by my Mercatus Center colleague Sherzod Abdukadirov.]

]]> https://techliberation.com/2015/10/13/the-failure-of-good-intentions-bike-helmet-laws-edition/feed/ 3 75862 Tech Policy Threat Matrix https://techliberation.com/2015/09/24/tech-policy-threat-matrix/ https://techliberation.com/2015/09/24/tech-policy-threat-matrix/#comments Thu, 24 Sep 2015 15:52:56 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=75757

On the whiteboard that hangs in my office, I have a giant matrix of technology policy issues and the various policy “threat vectors” that might end up driving regulation of particular technologies or sectors. Along with my colleagues at the Mercatus Center’s Technology Policy Program, we constantly revise this list of policy priorities and simultaneously make an (obviously quite subjective) attempt to put some weights on the potential policy severity associated with each threat of intervention. The matrix looks like this: [Sorry about the small fonts. You can click on the image to make it easier to see.]

 

Tech Policy Issue Matrix 2015

I use 5 general policy concerns when considering the likelihood of regulatory intervention in any given area. Those policy concerns are:

  1. privacy (reputation issues, fear of “profiling” & “discrimination,” amorphous psychological / cognitive harms);
  2. safety (health & physical safety or, alternatively, child safety and speech / cultural concerns);
  3. security (hacking, cybersecurity, law enforcement issues);
  4. economic disruption (automation, job dislocation, sectoral disruptions); and,
  5. intellectual property (copyright and patent issues).

I realize that some of these five categories could be sub-divided and refined. I also understand that these five groupings may not encapsulate the full range of potential policy issues out there, but I’ve tried to avoid having too many categories to keep this as conceptually tidy as is possible. However, I might need to add a separate category for civil rights and disabilities-related policy issues eventually. Likewise, “psychological considerations” might deserve its own category because they do not necessarily perfectly fit into either the privacy or safety buckets right now, even though that’s where I have them currently. For example, some privacy activists call for regulation of “big data” and large databases based on fears about how all that data collection makes people feel about themselves. I consider that a privacy-related concern now, but you could imagine that being in a separate category. Meanwhile, there’s long been calls to regulate various types of media content (music, movies, video games, online porn, etc) based on the psychological impact they have on children. Those “media effects” theories have always been considered a child safety issue, which is where I currently have them slotted, but they could probably be its own category that also included concerns about distraction and addiction (which could come to haunt VR technologies in the future).

Anyway, my colleagues and I use this current matrix to help us determine what we should be paying more attention to and what sort of scholarly outputs are needed to address regulatory threats on each front. Generally speaking, this is the portfolio of issues I try to stay on top of full-time at Mercatus as part of our ongoing “Permissionless Innovation” project.

Several people who have seen that matrix in my office tell me I should do something more with it, but I’m not really sure what that something would be. In any event, I thought it might make sense to post it here to give others a feel for the current set of emerging tech policy issues that interest us at Mercatus. I will try to upload new versions of the matrix as that giant whiteboard in my office morphs over time and the list of technologies and regulatory threats changes or grows.

Incidentally, I am often asked to explain the relative weights I’ve assigned to each potential regulatory threat, so I will try to justify some of those rankings here briefly. (Again, it’s all quite subjective and I’m always open to hearing the case for tweaking the rankings.)

  • Big Data / Online Marketing / the Internet of Things (IoT): Privacy is the #1 policy threat for these sectors. From a public policy perspective, what unifies these technologies is a growing concern about how expanding private sector data collection efforts could affect our privacy or reputations. We’ve already seen a flurry of legislative and regulatory activity here in the U.S. aimed at placing restrictions on data collection or use. And it goes without saying that other countries, especially in Europe, already impose a wide variety of controls on data collection in the name of privacy protection. There also exists a variety of closely-related security concerns here. But the rise of IoT technologies have introduced safety concerns into the mix in a major way, too. That’s especially true because of the large number of Big Data services and IoT devices that are health and medical related.  Taken together, this is the issue set I spend the majority of my time covering because the privacy and security implications of a data-driven economy already occupies the attention of countless regulatory activists and public policymakers across the globe. I think that will continue to be the case for many years to come.
  • Robotics: Safety concerns tend to be the biggest driver of calls for regulation of robotic and autonomous technology. For example, new laws and regulations are already being proposed for driverless cars based on fears about the hacking of connected vehicles. And commercial drones attract policy attention based on safety-related concerns such as whether a drone could strike an airplane, or even just fall on our heads. Proposals have been floated to mandate the equivalent of DRM for drones, which would force drone innovators to embed federally-approved technological controls into their systems designating where they are allowed to fly. Even if most of these concerns are overstated or are currently being dealt with, we can expect more safety-related policy proposals for robotic tech in coming years.  Economic concerns would be a close second here due to the increasing worry that robots will eat all our jobs. At least so far, however, that concern has tended to be more of an academic nature rather than a public policy consideration. And it remains unclear what the policy prescription would be in this regard without becoming a neo-Luddite, “smash-the-machines” sort of proposal. That could change in coming years, however. It all depends on the labor market situation over time. Meanwhile, academics are floating the idea of a Federal Robotics Commission to provide greater policy “expertise” in the form of yet another technocratic Beltway bureaucracy.
  • Additive manufacturing / 3D printing: Safety is probably the #1 concern here, although depending on what type of 3D-printed object we are talking about, it could be the case that intellectual property concerns will be a bigger driver of calls for regulatory intervention. A lot of the policy-related concerns around 3D printing today are being driven by worries over things like 3D-printed guns. That’s mostly a safety concern, of course. But it we are talking about the replication of branded commercial objects (3D-printed toys or other things, for example), then IP tends to be the bigger concern. The question of product liability also looms large here and it remains unclear how claims might be sorted out when there are fewer large, deep-pocketed intermediaries to go after in a world of decentralized production. Hopefully, those liability norms will be left to the courts and common law to sort out over time, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more calls for preemptive legislative interventions here in both directions: i.e., some will call legislators to impose greater liability on certain parties while others will push to immunize intermediaries from punishing forms of liability for the downstream actions of others (like a Sec. 230 norm for 3D printing).
  • Medical tech innovation: It goes without saying that traditional safety concerns will drive policy for advanced medical technologies, just as they have for earlier drugs, devices, and treatments. As software continues to “eat the world” and invade the world of health and medicine, regulators are increasingly going to be trying to figure out how to pigeonhole new technologies into old regulatory constructs. That’s why I have been watching how the FDA continues to deal with 3D-printed prosthetics and mobile medical apps on our smartphones. Eventually, the continuing decentralized democratization of 3D printing (driven by rapidly falling costs) will collide with old medical device regulatory realities and a century’s worth of FDA command-and-control style regulation. Oh my, what a fight that will be! And then chemical printers will become more widespread and this issue will get even more intense. The policy fight here is even more interesting because of all the thorny ethical issues pertaining to the rise of embeddable technology, biohacking, and genome innovation. I have a feeling that my policy portfolio will shift rapidly in this direction in coming years as the modern info-tech revolution spreads to the world of medicine and health. I already have two new papers coming out on these issues in the next few weeks.
  • Sharing economy: Economic disruption is clearly the big policy issue here. Specifically, many policymakers and incumbent industries aren’t very happy about new entrants coming into their sectors and offering consumers services without strictly complying with traditional regulations. But safety issues often pop up in these debates when regulators or advocates claim we can’t trust sharing economy operators. What’s particularly interesting about this space is how these policy battles are playing out at almost every level of government: federal, state, local, and international. At least thus far, sharing economy innovators tend to be winning most of those battles. But the fight continues.
  • Crypto & Bitcoin: I think safety would probably be the biggest issue here, in the sense that policymakers fear a world of unregulated crypto and decentralized blockchain applications are a world in which the “bad guys” will be able to use those technologies to harm the public in some fashion. We’ve heard this all before, of course, but (going all the way back to the Clipper Chip wars) you can always bank on law enforcement officials resorting to Chicken Little claims about terrorists and child predators thriving in a world of unregulated crypto. In many ways, this is the most important of all these policy fights because if the government can regulate crypto and blockchain technologies, it severely undermines the fabric of almost all the other technologies and platforms discussed herein. This is why the current debate over government-mandated “backdoors” is so important; it has profound ramifications for every other tech regulation debate that follows.
  • Immersive Tech (VR and augmented reality): This is an amorphous and evolving area that I am getting increasingly interested in, but the policy issues here have yet to come into clear focus. However, when Google Glass was launched, there was a brief technopanic of sorts over its privacy and security ramifications. Those concerns have subsided a bit as Google Glass has seemingly faded away (probably because of its high price point more than because of its privacy concerns), but I suspect that future iterations of augmented reality technologies will raise similar concerns. That will especially be true as more sophisticated biometric (and facial recognition) capabilities are integrated into them. Academics are already wondering how to enforce “notice and consent” privacy norms and rules in a world where everyone is wearing miniature body cams and heads-up displays in their sunglasses. I’m not sure it’s even possible, but that debate will continue and include all sorts of calls for technological controls. OK, that’s augmented reality, but what about virtual reality technologies? I think safety concerns could drive some policy proposals as critics grow concerned about the psychological implications of people (especially kids) spending more and more time in immersive virtual worlds. In that sense, we might see a replay of the earlier debate over violent video games and/or video game addition. But it remains to be seen.

Incidentally, I use this matrix and provide more context to it in my big presentation on “Permissionless Innovation & the Clash of Visions over Emerging Technologies.” [It’s embedded below.] And I discuss most of these issues in more detail in my book, Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom. I am in the process of finishing up the second edition of that book and will be expanding the case studies about the issues discussed above. Finally, I discussed many of these policy threats during my recent appearance on the Andreessen Horowitz podcast.

Update 10/2/15: For another take on various new technology trends and the potential policy issues they raise, check out this report from the World Economic Forum, Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact. The WEF report identifies 21 technology “shifts” and then groups them into six “mega-trend” categories. Almost all these issues are on my matrix above, but the WEF report provides some nice additional context on why each technology trend will be so disruptive.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2015/09/24/tech-policy-threat-matrix/feed/ 2 75757 Making Sure the “Trolley Problem” Doesn’t Derail Life-Saving Innovation https://techliberation.com/2015/01/13/making-sure-the-trolley-problem-doesnt-derail-life-saving-innovation/ https://techliberation.com/2015/01/13/making-sure-the-trolley-problem-doesnt-derail-life-saving-innovation/#comments Tue, 13 Jan 2015 18:07:16 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=75238

I want to highlight an important new blog post (“Slow Down That Runaway Ethical Trolley“) on the ethical trade-offs at work with autonomous vehicle systems by Bryant Walker Smith, a leading expert on these issues. Writing over at Stanford University’s Center for Internet and Society blog, Smith notes that, while serious ethical dilemmas will always be present with such technologies, “we should not allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good.” He notes that many ethical philosophers, legal theorists, and media pundits have recently been actively debating variations of the classic “Trolley Problem,” and its ramifications for the development of autonomous or semi-autonomous systems. (Here’s some quick background on the Trolley Problem, a thought experiment involving the choices made during various no-win accident scenarios.) Commenting on the increased prevalence of the Trolley Problem in these debates, Smith observes that:

Unfortunately, the reality that automated vehicles will eventually kill people has morphed into the illusion that a paramount challenge for or to these vehicles is deciding who precisely to kill in any given crash. This was probably not the intent of the thoughtful proponents of this thought experiment, but it seems to be the result. Late last year, I was asked the “who to kill” question more than any other — by journalists, regulators, and academics. An influential working group to which I belong even (briefly) identified the trolley problem as one of the most significant barriers to fully automated motor vehicles. Although dilemma situations are relevant to the field, they have been overhyped in comparison to other issues implicated by vehicle automation. The fundamental ethical question, in my opinion, is this: In the United States alone, tens of thousands of people die in motor vehicle crashes every year, and many more are injured. Automated vehicles have great potential to one day reduce this toll, but the path to this point will involve mistakes and crashes and fatalities. Given this stark choice, what is the proper balance between caution and urgency in bringing these systems to the market? How safe is safe enough?

That’s a great question and one that Ryan Hagemann and put some thought into as part of our recent Mercatus Center working paper, “Removing Roadblocks to Intelligent Vehicles and Driverless Cars.” That paper, which has been accepted for publication in a forthcoming edition of the Wake Forest Journal of Law & Policy, outlines the many benefits of autonomous or semi-autonomous systems and discusses the potential cost of delaying their widespread adoption. When it comes to “Trolley Problem”-like ethical questions, Hagemann and I argue that, “these ethical considerations need to be evaluated against the backdrop of the current state of affairs, in which tens of thousands of people die each year in auto-related accidents due to human error.” We continue on later in the paper:

Autonomous vehicles are unlikely to create 100 percent safe, crash-free roadways, but if they significantly decrease the number of people killed or injured as a result of human error, then we can comfortably suggest that the implications of the technology, as a whole, are a boon to society. The ethical underpinnings of what makes for good software design and computer-generated responses are a difficult and philosophically robust space for discussion. Given the abstract nature of the intersection of ethics and robotics, a more detailed consideration and analysis of this space must be left for future research. Important work is currently being done on this subject. But those ethical considerations must not derail ongoing experimentation with intelligent-vehicle technology, which could save many lives and have many other benefits, as already noted. Only through ongoing experimentation and feedback mechanisms can we expect to see constant improvement in how autonomous vehicles respond in these situations to further minimize the potential for accidents and harms. (p. 42-3)

None of this should be read to suggest that the ethical issues being raised by some philosophers or other pundits are unimportant. To the contrary, they are raising legitimate concerns about how ethics are “baked-in” to the algorithms that control autonomous or semi-autonomous systems. It is vital we continue to debate the wisdom of the choices made by the companies and programmers behind those technologies and consider better ways to inform and improve their judgments about how to ‘optimize the sub-optimal,’ so to speak. After all, when you are making decisions about how to minimize the potential for harm — including the loss of life — there are many thorny issues that must be considered and all of them will have downsides. Smith considers a few when he notes:

Automation does not mean an end to uncertainty. How is an automated vehicle (or its designers or users) to immediately know what another driver will do? How is it to precisely ascertain the number or condition of passengers in adjacent vehicles? How is it to accurately predict the harm that will follow from a particular course of action? Even if specific ethical choices are made prospectively, this continuing uncertainty could frustrate their implementation.

Again, these are all valid questions deserving serious exploration, but we’re not having this discussion in a vacuum. Ivory Tower debates cannot be divorced from real-world realities. Although road safety has been improving for many years, people are still dying at a staggering rate due to vehicle-related accidents. Specifically, in 2012, there were 33,561 total traffic fatalities (92 per day) and 2,362,000 people injured (6,454 per day) in over 5,615,000 reported crashes. And, to reiterate, the bulk of those accidents were due to human error.

That is a staggering toll and anything we can do to reduce it significantly is something we need to be pursuing with great vigor, even while we continue to sort through some of those challenging ethical issues associated with automated systems and algorithms. Smith argues, correctly in my opinion, that “a more practical approach in emergency situations may be to weight general rules of behavior: decelerate, avoid humans, avoid obstacles as they arise, stay in the lane, and so forth. … [T]his simplified approach would accept some failures in order to expedite and entrench what could be automation’s larger successes. As Voltaire reminds us, we should not allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good.”

Quite right. Indeed, the next time someone poses an an ethical thought experiment along the lines of the Trolley Problem, do what I do and reverse the equation. Ask them about the ethics of slowing down the introduction of a technology into our society that would result in a (potentially significant) lowering of the nearly 100 deaths and over 6,000 injuries that occur because of vehicle-related fatalities each day in the United States. Because that’s no hypothetical thought experiment; that’s the world we live in right now.

(P.S. The late, great political scientist Aaron Wildavsky crafted a framework for considering these complex issues in his brilliant 1988 book, Searching for Safety. No book has had a more significant influence on my thinking about these and other “risk trade-off” issues since I first read it 25 years ago. I cannot recommend it highly enough. I discussed Wildavsky’s framework and vision in my recent little book on “Permissionless Innovation.” Readers might also be interested in my August 2013 essay, “On the Line between Technology Ethics vs. Technology Policy,” which featured an exchange with ethical philosopher Patrick Lin, co-editor of an excellent collection of essays on Robot Ethics: The Ethical and Social Implications of Robotics. You should add that book to your shelf if you are interested in these issues.

 

]]> https://techliberation.com/2015/01/13/making-sure-the-trolley-problem-doesnt-derail-life-saving-innovation/feed/ 2 75238 My Writing on Internet of Things (Thus Far) https://techliberation.com/2015/01/05/my-writing-on-internet-of-things-thus-far/ https://techliberation.com/2015/01/05/my-writing-on-internet-of-things-thus-far/#comments Mon, 05 Jan 2015 16:55:41 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=75210

I’ve spent much of the past year studying the potential public policy ramifications associated with the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT). As I was preparing some notes for my Jan. 6th panel discussing on “Privacy and the IoT: Navigating Policy Issues” at this year’s 2015 CES show, I went back and collected all my writing on IoT issues so that I would have everything in one place. Thus, down below I have listed most of what I’ve done over the past year or so. Most of this writing is focused on the privacy and security implications of the Internet of Things, and wearable technologies in particular.

I plan to stay on top of these issues in 2015 and beyond because, as I noted when I spoke on a previous CES panel on these issues, the Internet of Things finds itself at the center of what we might think of a perfect storm of public policy concerns: Privacy, safety, security, intellectual property, economic / labor disruptions, automation concerns, wireless spectrum issues, technical standards, and more. When a new technology raises one or two of these policy concerns, innovators in those sectors can expect some interest and inquiries from lawmakers or regulators. But when a new technology potentially touches all of these issues, then it means innovators in that space can expect an avalanche of attention and a potential world of regulatory trouble. Moreover, it sets the stage for a grand “clash of visions” about the future of IoT technologies that will continue to intensify in coming months and years.

That’s why I’ll be monitoring developments closely in this field going forward. For now, here’s what I’ve done on this issue as I prepare to head out to Las Vegas for another CES extravaganza that promises to showcase so many exciting IoT technologies.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2015/01/05/my-writing-on-internet-of-things-thus-far/feed/ 2 75210 New Paper on Privacy & Security Implications of the Internet of Things & Wearable Technology https://techliberation.com/2014/11/21/new-paper-on-privacy-security-implications-of-the-internet-of-things-wearable-technology/ https://techliberation.com/2014/11/21/new-paper-on-privacy-security-implications-of-the-internet-of-things-wearable-technology/#comments Fri, 21 Nov 2014 15:23:31 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74973

IoT paperThe Mercatus Center at George Mason University has just released my latest working paper, “The Internet of Things and Wearable Technology: Addressing Privacy and Security Concerns without Derailing Innovation.” The “Internet of Things” (IoT) generally refers to “smart” devices that are connected to both the Internet and other devices. Wearable technologies are IoT devices that are worn somewhere on the body and which gather data about us for various purposes. These technologies promise to usher in the next wave of Internet-enabled services and data-driven innovation. Basically, the Internet will be “baked in” to almost everything that consumers own and come into contact with.

Some critics are worried about the privacy and security implications of the Internet of Things and wearable technology, however, and are proposing regulation to address these concerns. In my new 93-page article, I explain why preemptive, top-down regulation would derail the many life-enriching innovations that could come from these new IoT technologies. Building on a recent book of mine, I argue that “permissionless innovation,” which allows new technology to flourish and develop in a relatively unabated fashion, is the superior approach to the Internet of Things.

As I note in the paper and my earlier book, if we spend all our time living in fear of the worst-case scenarios — and basing public policies on them — then best-case scenarios can never come about. As the old saying goes: nothing ventured, nothing gained. Precautionary principle-based regulation paralyzes progress and must be avoided.  We instead need to find constructive, “bottom-up” solutions to the privacy and security risks accompanying these new IoT technologies instead of top-down controls that would limit the development of life-enriching IoT innovations.

The better alternative is to deal with concerns creatively as they develop, using a balanced, layered approach  involving many different solutions, including: educational efforts, technological empowerment tools, social norms, public and watchdog pressure, industry best practices and self-regulation, transparency, torts and products liability law, and targeted enforcement of existing legal standards as needed.

Generally speaking, patience, humility, and forbearance by policymakers is crucial to allowing greater innovation and consumer choice in this arena. Importantly, policymakers should not forget that societal and individual adaptation will play a role here, just as it has during so many other turbulent technological transformations.

This article can be downloaded on my Mercatus Center page, on SSRN, or at Research Gate. I am hoping to find a law or policy journal interested in publishing this paper soon. If you with a journal and are interested, please contact me. [UPDATE 12/3/14: This paper has been accepted for publication in the Richmond Journal of Law & Technology, Vol. 21, Issue 6 (2015).]

Finally, if you are interested in this topic, you might want to flip through these slides I prepared for a presentation on this topic that I made at the Federal Communications Commission in September:

Additional reading:
]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/11/21/new-paper-on-privacy-security-implications-of-the-internet-of-things-wearable-technology/feed/ 5 74973 New Paper: “Removing Roadblocks to Intelligent Vehicles and Driverless Cars” https://techliberation.com/2014/09/17/new-paper-removing-roadblocks-to-intelligent-vehicles-and-driverless-cars/ https://techliberation.com/2014/09/17/new-paper-removing-roadblocks-to-intelligent-vehicles-and-driverless-cars/#comments Wed, 17 Sep 2014 15:03:42 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74730

Driverless CarI’m pleased to announce that the Mercatus Center at George Mason University has just released my latest working paper, “Removing Roadblocks to Intelligent Vehicles and Driverless Cars.” This paper, which was co-authored with Ryan Hagemann, has been accepted for publication in a forthcoming edition of the Wake Forest Journal of Law & Policy.

In the paper, Hagemann and I explore the growing market for both “connected car” technologies as well as autonomous (or “driverless”) vehicle technology. We argue that intelligent-vehicle technology will produce significant benefits. Most notably, these technologies could save many lives. In 2012, 33,561 people were killed and 2,362,000 injured in traffic crashes, largely as a result of human error. Reducing the number of accidents by allowing intelligent vehicle technology to flourish would constitute a major public policy success. As Philip E. Ross noted recently at IEEE Spectrum, thanks to these technologies, “eventually it will be positively hard to use a car to hurt yourself or others.” The sooner that day arrives, the better.

These technologies could also have positive environmental impacts in the form of improved fuel economy, reduced traffic congestion, and reduced parking needs. They might also open up new mobility options for those who are unable to drive, for whatever reason. Any way you cut it, these are exciting technologies that promise to substantially improve human welfare.

Of course, as with any new disruptive technology, connected cars and driverless vehicles raise a variety of economic, social, and ethical concerns. Hagemann and I address some of the early policy concerns about these technologies (safety, security, privacy, liability, etc.) and we outline a variety of “bottom-up” solutions to ensure that innovation continues to flourish in this space. Importantly, we also argue that policymakers should keep in mind that individuals have gradually adapted to similar disruptions in the past and, therefore, patience and humility are needed when considering policy for intelligent-vehicle systems.

More generally, we note that the debate over intelligent vehicle technologies foreshadows many other tech policy debates to come in that it raises the larger question of what principle will guide the future of technological progress. Will “permissionless innovation” be our lodestar, allowing individuals to pursue a world of which they can, as of now, only dream? Or will “precautionary principle”-based reasoning prevail instead, driven by a desire to preserve the status quo?

To the maximum extent possible, we argue, policymakers should embrace permissionless innovation for intelligent vehicles. Creative minds–especially those most vociferously opposed to technological change–will always be able to concoct horrific-sounding scenarios about the future. Best-case scenarios will never develop if we are gripped by fear of the worst-case scenarios and try to preemptively plan for all of them with policy interventions.

This 55-page (double-spaced) working paper is available on the Mercatus Center website as well as SSRN, Research Gate, and Scribd. In coming weeks and months, we’ll be writing more about the themes addressed in this paper. Stay tuned, things are unfolding rapidly in this highly innovative arena.

 

Additional Reading

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/09/17/new-paper-removing-roadblocks-to-intelligent-vehicles-and-driverless-cars/feed/ 2 74730 Slide Presentation: Policy Issues Surrounding the Internet of Things & Wearable Technology https://techliberation.com/2014/09/12/slide-presentation-policy-issues-surrounding-the-internet-of-things-wearable-technology/ https://techliberation.com/2014/09/12/slide-presentation-policy-issues-surrounding-the-internet-of-things-wearable-technology/#comments Fri, 12 Sep 2014 16:04:09 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74721

On Thursday, it was my great pleasure to present a draft of my forthcoming paper, “The Internet of Things & Wearable Technology: Addressing Privacy & Security Concerns without Derailing Innovation,” at a conference that took place at the Federal Communications Commission on “Regulating the Evolving Broadband Ecosystem.” The 3-day event was co-sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute and the University of Nebraska College of Law.

The 65-page working paper I presented is still going through final peer review and copyediting, but I posted a very rough first draft on SSRN for conference participants. I expect the paper to be released as a Mercatus Center working paper in October and then I hope to find a home for it in a law review. I will post the final version once it is released. [UPDATE:The final version of this working paper was released on November 19, 2014.]

In the meantime, however, I thought I would post the 46 slides I presented at the conference, which offer an overview of the nature of the Internet of Things and wearable technology, the potential economic opportunities that exist in this space, and the various privacy and security challenges that could hold this technological revolution back. I also outlined some constructive solutions to those concerns. I plan to be very active on these issues in coming months.

Additional Reading

 

 

 

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/09/12/slide-presentation-policy-issues-surrounding-the-internet-of-things-wearable-technology/feed/ 3 74721 New Law Review Article: “Privacy Law’s Precautionary Principle Problem” https://techliberation.com/2014/06/16/new-law-review-article-privacy-laws-precautionary-principle-problem/ https://techliberation.com/2014/06/16/new-law-review-article-privacy-laws-precautionary-principle-problem/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2014 17:50:30 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74607

My latest law review article is entitled, “Privacy Law’s Precautionary Principle Problem,” and it appears in Vol. 66, No. 2 of the Maine Law Review. You can download the article on my Mercatus Center page, on the Maine Law Review website, or via SSRN. Here’s the abstract for the article:

Privacy law today faces two interrelated problems. The first is an information control problem. Like so many other fields of modern cyberlaw—intellectual property, online safety, cybersecurity, etc.—privacy law is being challenged by intractable Information Age realities. Specifically, it is easier than ever before for information to circulate freely and harder than ever to bottle it up once it is released.

This has not slowed efforts to fashion new rules aimed at bottling up those information flows. If anything, the pace of privacy-related regulatory proposals has been steadily increasing in recent years even as these information control challenges multiply.

This has led to privacy law’s second major problem: the precautionary principle problem. The precautionary principle generally holds that new innovations should be curbed or even forbidden until they are proven safe. Fashioning privacy rules based on precautionary principle reasoning necessitates prophylactic regulation that makes new forms of digital innovation guilty until proven innocent.

This puts privacy law on a collision course with the general freedom to innovate that has thus far powered the Internet revolution, and privacy law threatens to limit innovations consumers have come to expect or even raise prices for services consumers currently receive free of charge. As a result, even if new regulations are pursued or imposed, there will likely be formidable push-back not just from affected industries but also from their consumers.

In light of both these information control and precautionary principle problems, new approaches to privacy protection are necessary. We need to invert the process of how we go about protecting privacy by focusing more on practical “bottom-up” solutions—education, empowerment, public and media pressure, social norms and etiquette, industry self-regulation and best practices, and an enhanced role for privacy professionals within organizations—instead of “top-down” legalistic solutions and regulatory techno-fixes. Resources expended on top-down regulatory pursuits should instead be put into bottom-up efforts to help citizens better prepare for an uncertain future.

In this regard, policymakers can draw important lessons from the debate over how best to protect children from objectionable online content. In a sense, there is nothing new under the sun; the current debate over privacy protection has many parallels with earlier debates about how best to protect online child safety. Most notably, just as top-down regulatory constraints came to be viewed as constitutionally-suspect and economically inefficient, and also highly unlikely to even be workable in the long-run for protecting online child safety, the same will likely be true for most privacy related regulatory enactments.

This article sketches out some general lessons from those online safety debates and discusses their implications for privacy policy going forward.

Read the full article here [PDF].

Related Material:

 

Adam Thierer – Privacy Law’s Precautionary Problem (Maine Law Review, 2014) by Adam Thierer

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/06/16/new-law-review-article-privacy-laws-precautionary-principle-problem/feed/ 0 74607 video: Cap Hill Briefing on Emerging Tech Policy Issues https://techliberation.com/2014/06/12/video-cap-hill-briefing-on-emerging-tech-policy-issues/ https://techliberation.com/2014/06/12/video-cap-hill-briefing-on-emerging-tech-policy-issues/#comments Thu, 12 Jun 2014 15:53:33 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74611

I recently did a presentation for Capitol Hill staffers about emerging technology policy issues (driverless cars, the “Internet of Things,” wearable tech, private drones, “biohacking,” etc) and the various policy issues they would give rise to (privacy, safety, security, economic disruptions, etc.). The talk is derived from my new little book on “Permissionless Innovation,” but in coming months I will be releasing big papers on each of the topics discussed here.

Additional Reading:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/06/12/video-cap-hill-briefing-on-emerging-tech-policy-issues/feed/ 1 74611 The Problem with “Pessimism Porn” https://techliberation.com/2014/05/23/the-problem-with-pessimism-porn/ https://techliberation.com/2014/05/23/the-problem-with-pessimism-porn/#comments Fri, 23 May 2014 19:54:52 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74568

I’ve spent a lot of time here through the years trying to identify the factors that fuel moral panics and “technopanics.” (Here’s a compendium of the dozens of essays I’ve written here on this topic.) I brought all this thinking together in a big law review article (“Technopanics, Threat Inflation, and the Danger of an Information Technology Precautionary Principle”) and then also in my new booklet, “Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom.”

One factor I identify as contributing to panics is the fact that “bad news sells.” As I noted in the book, “Many media outlets and sensationalist authors sometimes use fear-based tactics to gain influence or sell books. Fear mongering and prophecies of doom are always effective media tactics; alarmism helps break through all the noise and get heard.”

In line with that, I want to highly recommend you check out this excellent new oped by John Stossel of Fox Business Network on “Good News vs. ‘Pessimism Porn‘.”  Stossel correctly notes that “the media win by selling pessimism porn.” He says:

Are you worried about the future? It’s hard not to be. If you watch the news, you mostly see violence, disasters, danger. Some in my business call it “fear porn” or “pessimism porn.” People like the stuff; it makes them feel alive and informed. Of course, it’s our job to tell you about problems. If a plane crashes — or disappears — that’s news. The fact that millions of planes arrive safely is a miracle, but it’s not news. So we soak in disasters — and warnings about the next one: bird flu, global warming, potential terrorism. I won Emmys hyping risks but stopped winning them when I wised up and started reporting on the overhyping of risks. My colleagues didn’t like that as much.

He continues on to note how, even though all the data clearly proves that humanity’s lot is improving, the press relentlessly push the “pessimism porn.” He argues that “time and again, humanity survived doomsday. Not just survived, we flourish.” But that doesn’t stop the doomsayers from predicting that the sky is always set to fall. In particular, the press knows they can easily gin up more readers and viewers by amping up the fear-mongering and featuring loonies who will be all too happy to play the roles of pessimism porn stars. Of course, plenty of academics, activists, non-profit organizations and even companies are all too eager to contribute to this gloom-and-doom game since they benefit from the exposure or money it generates.

The problem with all this, of course, is that it perpetuates societal fears and distrust. It also sometimes leads to misguided policies based on hypothetical worst-case thinking. As I argue in my new book, which Stossel was kind enough to cite in his essay, if we spend all our time living in constant fear of worst-case scenarios—and premising public policy upon them—it means that best-case scenarios will never come about.

Facts, not fear, should guide our thinking about the future.

______________________

Related Reading:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/05/23/the-problem-with-pessimism-porn/feed/ 3 74568 New Book Release: “Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom” https://techliberation.com/2014/03/25/new-book-release-permissionless-innovation-the-continuing-case-for-comprehensive-technological-freedom/ https://techliberation.com/2014/03/25/new-book-release-permissionless-innovation-the-continuing-case-for-comprehensive-technological-freedom/#respond Tue, 25 Mar 2014 15:06:28 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74314

book cover (small)I am pleased to announce the release of my latest book, “Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom.” It’s a short manifesto (just under 100 pages) that condenses — and attempts to make more accessible — arguments that I have developed in various law review articles, working papers, and blog posts over the past few years. I have two goals with this book.

First, I attempt to show how the central fault line in almost all modern technology policy debates revolves around “the permission question,” which asks: Must the creators of new technologies seek the blessing of public officials before they develop and deploy their innovations? How that question is answered depends on the disposition one adopts toward new inventions. Two conflicting attitudes are evident.

One disposition is known as the “precautionary principle.” Generally speaking, it refers to the belief that new innovations should be curtailed or disallowed until their developers can prove that they will not cause any harms to individuals, groups, specific entities, cultural norms, or various existing laws, norms, or traditions.

The other vision can be labeled “permissionless innovation.” It refers to the notion that experimentation with new technologies and business models should generally be permitted by default. Unless a compelling case can be made that a new invention will bring serious harm to society, innovation should be allowed to continue unabated and problems, if they develop at all, can be addressed later.

I argue that we are witnessing a grand clash of visions between these two mindsets today in almost all major technology policy discussions today.

The second major objective of the book, as is made clear by the title, is to make a forceful case in favor of the latter disposition of “permissionless innovation.” I argue that policymakers should unapologetically embrace and defend the permissionless innovation ethos — not just for the Internet but also for all new classes of networked technologies and platforms. Some of the specific case studies discussed in the book include: the “Internet of Things” and wearable technologies, smart cars and autonomous vehicles, commercial drones, 3D printing, and various other new technologies that are just now emerging.

I explain how precautionary principle thinking is increasingly creeping into policy discussions about these technologies. The urge to regulate preemptively in these sectors is driven by a variety of safety, security, and privacy concerns, which are discussed throughout the book. Many of these concerns are valid and deserve serious consideration. However, I argue that if precautionary-minded regulatory solutions are adopted in a preemptive attempt to head-off these concerns, the consequences will be profoundly deleterious.

The central lesson of the booklet is this: Living in constant fear of hypothetical worst-case scenarios — and premising public policy upon them — means that best-case scenarios will never come about. When public policy is shaped by precautionary principle reasoning, it poses a serious threat to technological progress, economic entrepreneurialism, social adaptation, and long-run prosperity.

Again, that doesn’t mean we should ignore the various problems created by these highly disruptive technologies. But how we address these concerns matters greatly. If and when problems develop, there are many less burdensome ways to address them than through preemptive technological controls. The best solutions to complex social problems are almost always organic and “bottom-up” in nature. Luckily, there exists a wide variety of constructive approaches that can be tapped to address or alleviate concerns associated with new innovations. These include:

  • education and empowerment efforts (including media literacy, digital citizenship efforts);
  • social pressure from activists, academics, and the press and the public more generally.
  • voluntary self-regulation and adoption of best practices (including privacy and security “by design” efforts); and,
  • increased transparency and awareness-building efforts to enhance consumer knowledge about how new technologies work.

Such solutions are almost always superior to top-down, command-and-control regulatory edits and bureaucratic schemes of a “Mother, May I?” (i.e., permissioned) nature. The problem with “top-down” traditional regulatory systems is that they often tend to be overly-rigid, bureaucratic, inflexible, and slow to adapt to new realities. They focus on preemptive remedies that aim to predict the future, and future hypothetical problems that may not ever come about. Worse yet, administrative regulation generally preempts or prohibits the beneficial experiments that yield new and better ways of doing things. It raises the cost of starting or running a business or non-business venture, and generally discourages activities that benefit society.

To the extent that other public policies are needed to guide technological developments, simple legal principles are greatly preferable to technology-specific, micro-managed regulatory regimes. Again, ex ante (preemptive and precautionary) regulation is often highly inefficient, even dangerous. To the extent that any corrective legal action is needed to address harms, ex post measures, especially via the common law (torts, class actions, etc.), are typically superior. And the Federal Trade Commission will, of course, continue to play a backstop here by utilizing the broad consumer protection powers it possesses under Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act, which prohibits “unfair or deceptive acts or practices in or affecting commerce.” In recent years, the FTC has already brought and settled many cases involving its Section 5 authority to address identity theft and data security matters. If still more is needed, enhanced disclosure and transparency requirements would certainly be superior to outright bans on new forms of experimentation or other forms of heavy-handed technological controls.

In the end, however, I argue that, to the maximum extent possible, our default position toward new forms of technological innovation must remain: “innovation allowed.” That is especially the case because, more often than not, citizens find ways to adapt to technological change by employing a variety of coping mechanisms, new norms, or other creative fixes. We should have a little more faith in the ability of humanity to adapt to the challenges new innovations create for our culture and economy. We have done it countless times before. We are creative, resilient creatures. That’s why I remain so optimistic about our collective ability to confront the challenges posed by these new technologies and prosper in the process.

If you’re interested in taking a look, you can find a free PDF of the book at the Mercatus Center website or you can find out how to order it from there as an eBook. Hardcopies are also available. I’ll be doing more blogging about the book in coming weeks and months. The debate between the “permissionless innovation” and “precautionary principle” worldviews is just getting started and it promises to touch every tech policy debate going forward.

Related Essays :

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/03/25/new-book-release-permissionless-innovation-the-continuing-case-for-comprehensive-technological-freedom/feed/ 0 74314 The Growing Conflict of Visions over the Internet of Things & Privacy https://techliberation.com/2014/01/14/the-growing-conflict-of-visions-over-the-internet-of-things-privacy/ https://techliberation.com/2014/01/14/the-growing-conflict-of-visions-over-the-internet-of-things-privacy/#comments Tue, 14 Jan 2014 20:32:44 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74086

When Google announced it was acquiring digital thermostat company Nest yesterday, it set off another round of privacy and security-related technopanic talk on Twitter and elsewhere. Fear and loathing seemed to be the order of the day. It seems that each new product launch or business announcement in the “Internet of Things” space is destined to set off another round of Chicken Little hand-wringing. We are typically told that the digital sky will soon fall on our collective heads unless we act preemptively to somehow head-off some sort of pending privacy or security apocalypse.

Meanwhile, however, a whole heck of lot of people are demanding more and more of these technologies, and American entrepreneurs are already engaged in heated competition with European and Asian rivals to be at the forefront of the next round Internet innovation to satisfy those consumer demands. So, how is this going to play out?

This gets to what becoming the defining policy issue of our time, not just for the Internet but for technology policy more generally: To what extent should the creators of new technologies seek the blessing of public officials before they develop and deploy their innovations? We can think of this as “the permission question” and it is creating a massive rift between those who desire more preemptive, precautionary safeguards for a variety of reasons (safety, security, privacy, copyright, etc.) and those of us who continue to believe that permissionless innovation should be the guiding ethos of our age. The chasm between these two worldviews is only going to deepen in coming years as the pace of innovation around new technologies (the Internet of Things, wearable tech, driverless cars, 3D printing, commercial drones, etc) continues to accelerate.

Sarah Kessler of Fast Company was kind enough to call me last night and ask for some general comments about Google buying Nest and she also sought out the comments of Marc Rotenberg of EPIC about privacy in the Internet of Things era more generally. Our comments provide a useful example of the divide between these two worldviews and foreshadow debates to come:

With an estimated 50 billion connected objects coming online by 2050, some see good reason to put policies in place that regulate the new categories of data they will collect about the people who use those products. “The basic problem with the Internet of Things, unless privacy safeguards are established up front, is that users will lose control over the data they generate,” Marc Rotenberg, the president of the Electronic Privacy Information Center, told Fast Company in an email. Others see the emerging category as a perfect reason to block omnibus attempts to regulate user data. “If we spend all of our time living in fear of hypothetical worst-case scenarios, then the best-case scenarios will never come about,” says Adam Thierer, a Senior Research Fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. “That’s the nature of how innovation works. You have to allow for risks and experimentation, and even accidents and failures, if you want to get progress.”

Last week, I wrote about this conflict of visions in my dispatch from the CES show and this topic is also the focus of my forthcoming eBook, “Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom.” To reiterate what I already said, my book will describe the future of the Internet of Things and all technology policy as a grand battle the “precautionary principle” and “permissionless innovation.” The “precautionary principle” refers to the belief that new innovations should be curtailed or disallowed until their developers can prove that they will not cause any harms to individuals, groups, specific entities, cultural norms, or various existing laws, norms, or traditions. The other worldview, “permissionless innovation,” refers to the notion that experimentation with new technologies and business models should generally be permitted by default. Unless a compelling case can be made that a new invention will bring serious harm to society, innovation should be allowed to continue unabated and problems, if they develop at all, can be addressed later.

While those adhering to the precautionary principle mindset tend to favor “top-down” legalistic approaches to solving those potential problems that might creep up, those of us who favor the premissionless innovation approach favor “bottom-up” solutions that evolve over time but do not interrupt the ongoing experimentation and innovation that consumers demand. What does a “bottom-up” approach mean in practice? Education and empowerment, social pressure, societal norms, voluntary self-regulation, and targeted enforcement of existing legal norms (especially through the common law) are almost always superior to top-down, command-and-control regulatory edits and bureaucratic schemes of a “Mother, May I” (i.e., permissioned) nature.

We really should not underestimate the power of norms and public pressure to “regulate” in this regard, perhaps even better than law, which tends to be too slow-moving to make much of a difference. In my book I spend a great deal of time talking about how other technological innovations have been shaped by social norms, public pressure, and press attention. That same will be true for the Internet of Things and various new technologies I discuss in my book. Others will gradually adapt to the new technological realities and integrate these new devices and services into their lives over time.

Perhaps, then, it will be the case that if Google does something particularly bone-headed with Nest that a public backlash will ensue. Or maybe some consumers will just reject Nest and look for other options, which is apparently what Rotenberg is doing according to the Fast Company article. Of course, as I noted in concluding the interview, others may act quite differently and accept Nest and other new Internet of Things technologies, even if there are some privacy or security downsides. As I told Sarah Kessler, while I was visiting the consumer electronics show last week, I heard it was freezing back here in DC. If I would have had Nest in my house, perhaps Google Now could have alerted me to the dangerously low temps in my house and suggested that I raise the temp remotely before my pipes froze. As I noted to Kessler:

“Would that have been creepy?” he says. “To me it would have been helpful. So for everything that people regard as a negative, I can usually find a positive. And if there’s that balance there, then it should be left to individuals to decide for themselves how to decide that balance.”

Finally, since I often get accused of being some sort of nihilist in these debates, I want to make it clear that ethics should influence all these discussions, but I prefer that we not impose ethics in a heavy-handed, inflexible way through preemptive, proscriptive regulatory controls. It makes more sense to wait and see how things play out before regulating to address harms, once we figure out which ones are real. (See the second and third essays listed below for more on ethics and technological innovation.) But we absolutely need to be engaging in robust societal discussions about digital ethics, digital citizenship, privacy and security by design, and sensible online etiquette. I’ve spent a lifetime writing about the power of that approach in the context of online child safety and I think it is equally applicable for privacy and security-related matters. In particular, we need to talk to our kids and our future technologists and innovators about smarter digital habits that respect the safety, security, and privacy of others. Those conversations can help us chart a more sensible path forward without sacrificing the many benefits that accompany the ongoing technological revolution we are blessed to be experiencing today.

Additional Reading:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/01/14/the-growing-conflict-of-visions-over-the-internet-of-things-privacy/feed/ 2 74086 CES 2014 Report: The Internet of Things Arrives, but Will Washington Welcome It? https://techliberation.com/2014/01/08/ces-2014-report-the-internet-of-things-arrives-but-will-washington-welcome-it/ https://techliberation.com/2014/01/08/ces-2014-report-the-internet-of-things-arrives-but-will-washington-welcome-it/#comments Wed, 08 Jan 2014 21:15:26 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74061

With each booth I pass and presentation I listen to at the 2014 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES), it becomes increasingly evident that the “Internet of Things” era has arrived. In just a few short years, the Internet of Things (IoT) has gone from industry buzzword to marketplace reality. Countless new IoT devices are on display throughout the halls of the Las Vegas Convention Center this week, including various wearable technologies, smart appliances, remote monitoring services, autonomous vehicles, and much more.

This isn’t vaporware; these are devices or services that are already on the market or will launch shortly. Some will fail, of course, just as many other earlier technologies on display at past CES shows didn’t pan out. But many of these IoT technologies will succeed, driven by growing consumer demand for highly personalized, ubiquitous, and instantaneous services.

But will policymakers let the Internet of Things revolution continue or will they stop it dead in its tracks? Interestingly, not too many people out here in Vegas at the CES seem all that worried about the latter outcome. Indeed, what I find most striking about the conversation out here at CES this week versus the one about IoT that has been taking place in Washington over the past year is that there is a large and growing disconnect between consumers and policymakers about what the Internet of Things means for the future.

When every device has a sensor, a chip, and some sort of networking capability, amazing opportunities become available to consumers. And that’s what has them so excited and ready to embrace these new technologies. But those same capabilities are exactly what raise the blood pressure of many policymakers and policy activists who fear the safety, security, or privacy-related problems that might creep up in a world filled with such technologies.

But at least so far, most consumers don’t seem to share the same worries. Instead, they are too busy shouting “More, More, More!” IoT technologies have generated enormous interest and every projection I’ve seen so far shows that explosive growth can be expected across all classes of devices. ABI Research estimates that there are more than ten billion wirelessly connected devices in the market today and more than thirty billion devices expected by 2020. Last year Cisco projected that by 2020 thirty-seven billion intelligent things will be connected and communicating but has now apparently revised that estimate upward to 40 or 50 billion. Thus, we are well on the way to a world where “everyone and everything will be connected to the network.”

Yet, it remains unclear what the IoT public policy landscape will look like in coming years and what disposition lawmakers and regulators will adopt toward these new amazing new technologies. Two distinct policy disposition are clashing over what approach should govern the future of innovation in this space.

I discussed this tension during a CES panel this morning on “The Internet of Things and the Home of the Future.” It featured outstanding opening remarks by FTC Commissioner Maureen K. Ohlhausen, who made the case for regulatory humility and focusing on how these new technologies can empower individuals in important new ways. “The Internet has evolved in one generation from a network of electronically interlinked research facilities in the United States to one of the most dynamic forces in the global economy, in the process reshaping entire industries and even changing the way we interact on a personal level,” she noted. “And the Internet of Things offers the promise of even greater progress ahead for consumers and competition.” I strongly encourage you to read Commissioner Ohlhausen’s entire speech. It is terrific and sets exactly the right tone for these discussions.

After Commissioner Ohlhausen spoke, we had a panel discussion that was expertly moderated by tech policy guru Larry Downes and which included remarks from Robert M. McDowell (Hudson Institute), Jeff  Hagins, (Smart Things), Robert Pepper (Cisco), Marc Rogers (Lookout), and me.

When I spoke, I described the future of the Internet of Things as a grand battle of two alternative worldviews: the “precautionary principle” and “permissionless innovation.” The “precautionary principle” refers to the belief that new innovations should be curtailed or disallowed until their developers can prove that they will not cause any harms to individuals, groups, specific entities, cultural norms, or various existing laws, norms, or traditions. The other worldview, “permissionless innovation,” refers to the notion that experimentation with new technologies and business models should generally be permitted by default. Unless a compelling case can be made that a new invention will bring serious harm to society, innovation should be allowed to continue unabated and problems, if they develop at all, can be addressed later.

I’ll soon be releasing a new eBook about this conflict of visions. The book will be called, “Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom” and it should be out in the next few weeks. In it, I will explain how precautionary principle thinking is increasingly creeping into modern information technology policy discussions, explain how that is dangerous and must be rejected, and argue that policymakers should instead unapologetically embrace and defend the permissionless innovation vision — not just for the Internet but also for all new classes of networked technologies and platforms.

This intellectual tension is already evident in debates over the Internet of Things. While we are still very early in this debate, we can expect rising calls for preemptive regulatory controls on IoT technologies based on various safety, security, and especially privacy rationales.  If the precautionary principle mentality wins out and trumps the permissionless innovation ethos that has already powered the first wave of the digital revolution, it will have profound ramifications.

As I’ll note in my forthcoming eBook, preserving and extending the permissionless innovation ethos to the Internet of Things is not about “protecting corporate profits” or assisting any particular technology, industry sector, or set of innovators. Rather, preserving an environment in which permissionless innovation can flourish is about ensuring that individuals as both citizens and consumers continue to enjoy the myriad benefits that accompany an open, innovative information ecosystem. More profoundly, this general freedom to innovate is essential for powering the next great wave of industrial innovation and rejuvenating our dynamic, high-growth economy. Even more profoundly, this is about preserving social and economic freedom more generally while rejecting the central-planning mentality and methods that throughout history have stifled human progress and prosperity.

Safety, security, and privacy problems will continue to persist, of course, and we should work to find practical, “bottom-up” solutions to them. As I detail in my eBook, education and empowerment, social pressure, societal norms, voluntary self-regulation, transparency efforts, and targeted enforcement of existing legal norms (especially through the common law) are almost always superior to “top-down,” command-and-control regulatory edits and bureaucratic schemes of a “Mother, May I” (i.e., permissioned) nature. Preemptive technological controls of that sort would limit new innovation in this space and sacrifice the many benefits that will flow to consumers from continued experimentation.

Those who advocate precautionary regulatory approaches to the Internet of Things should think through to consequences of preemptively prohibiting technological innovation and realize that not everyone shares their same values, especially pertaining to privacy, which is a highly subjective concept that is often difficult to legislate around. We should instead find ways work with together to seek out those practical, bottom-up solutions that will help individuals, institutions, and society learn how to better cope with technological change over time. Using this approach, we can embrace our dynamic future together without doing permanent damage to our innovative minds and economy.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/01/08/ces-2014-report-the-internet-of-things-arrives-but-will-washington-welcome-it/feed/ 1 74061 On Facebook, Teens & Privacy https://techliberation.com/2013/10/16/on-facebook-teens-privacy/ https://techliberation.com/2013/10/16/on-facebook-teens-privacy/#comments Wed, 16 Oct 2013 21:02:42 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=73684

Facebook announced some changes to its site today that will make it easier for teen users to share content with not just their friends but also the entire world. (More coverage at The Washington Post here.) No doubt, some privacy advocates will cry foul and rush to policymakers with requests for restrictions. Yet, it’s not clear to me what their case would be. There isn’t any COPPA issue here since we are talking about teens, and they aren’t covered by the law. Moreover, it seems entirely sensible to allow teens to make their voices heard more broadly via Facebook’s platform the same way they can via many other online sites and services. Teens have speech rights, too, after all.

On the other hand, this is another “teachable moment” that parents should take advantage of. When sites (especially larger sites like Facebook) change their policies and make it easier for our kids to share more about themselves and their feelings, that is always a great time to have another chat with them about acceptable online behavior. I’ve spent a lot of time here and elsewhere talking about the importance of “Netiquette,” or proper online etiquette in various social settings and situations. We need to talk to our kids and each other about being more savvy, sensible, respectful, and resilient media consumers and digital citizens. And schools and even governments have a role to play in pushing education and media literacy in pursuit of better “digital citizenship.”

The crucial lesson here — and this certainly has relevance to today’s Facebook announcement — is that we need to constantly be encouraging our kids to think about smarter online hygiene (sensible personal data use) and proper behavior toward others. We can, without using excessive fear tactics, do more to explain the potential perils of over-sharing information about ourselves and others while simultaneously encouraging kids to delete unnecessary online information occasionally and cover their digital footprints in other ways. These efforts and lessons should start at a young age and continue on well into adulthood through other means, including awareness campaigns and public service announcements.

For its part, Facebook is taking the sensible step of issuing multiple warnings to teens before they use the new tools now at their disposal to communicate to the world. Before they first post publicly, they’ll apparently see an inline pop-up box warning them they are a posting for a broader audience than just their friends. I can’t see what more Facebook should do to educate kids in this regard. I suppose they could issue endless warnings each and every time that teens go to post publicly, but then the pop-up overload would just become annoying and drive kids away entirely.

Facebook also offers a lot of ways for users to clamp down on their sharing, but it defeats the whole purpose of the site if you are cranking all those settings up to maximum restrictiveness because, by its very nature, Facebook is all about sharing. So, we shouldn’t expect Facebook to switch all those defaults over to a completely locked-down experience.

If you don’t like the fact that your teen shares a lot on Facebook, you probably need to ask yourself if you want them on Facebook at all. Personally, Facebook is just not for me (I stopped using it well over a year ago; just too much of a Digital Nudist Colony for my taste) and my kids haven’t expressed much interest in it yet (which is probably good since they are not yet 13!)  But if and when they do express interest (and are old enough to join), I will be happy to sit down with them, walk through the process of setting up a profile, and use the opportunity to talk to them in a open, understanding, and loving fashion about the ups and downs of digital life in a mass-sharing, hyper-transparent ecosystem like Facebook.

Honestly, as a parent, I don’t think Facebook is all that concerning from the perspective of safety, although it can at times be a bit more concerning when it comes to privacy. But many kids today aren’t even all that into Facebook and other social networking sites, viewing them as the spaces where old farts hang out. Today’s kids are more into visual media, texting, and services that let them instantaneously combine those services to rapidly create and share their lives and their feelings. My daughter and her friends walk around all day and night long filming each other and then creating silly mash-ups of the best moments before sharing them with each other and classmates. The potential for mistakes is always there and I am constantly talking to her about what she films, when she films, and who she shares the clips with. But in the end, she is being remarkably creative and enjoying herself immensely in the process. I want to encourage that since it is rewarding for both her and for me. I am very proud of what my kids can do with modern digital media and jealous that I did not have similar tools and opportunities when I was young! But I also want to make sure she understands the potential downsides and dangers of oversharing or inappropriate uses of modern video and texting technologies.

Patience and personal responsibility is always more sensible than panic. That’s something we should keep in mind when companies like Facebook and others role out new tools and features that our kids will gradually assimilate into their lives. Talk to them about it, help them make smart decisions, and constantly reinforce those positive messages.  But most of all, don’t panic!

]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/10/16/on-facebook-teens-privacy/feed/ 4 73684 California Eraser Button Passes https://techliberation.com/2013/09/26/california-eraser-button-passes/ https://techliberation.com/2013/09/26/california-eraser-button-passes/#comments Thu, 26 Sep 2013 14:32:09 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=73572

California’s continuing effort to make the Internet their own digital fiefdom continued this week with Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation that creates an online “Eraser Button” just for minors. The law isn’t quite as sweeping as the seriously misguided “right to be forgotten” notion I’ve critique here (1, 2, 3, 4) and elsewhere (5, 6) before. In any event, the new California law will:

require the operator of an Internet Web site, online service, online application, or mobile application to permit a minor, who is a registered user of the operator’s Internet Web site, online service, online application, or mobile application, to remove, or to request and obtain removal of, content or information posted on the operator’s Internet Web site, service, or application by the minor, unless the content or information was posted by a 3rd party, any other provision of state or federal law requires the operator or 3rd party to maintain the content or information, or the operator anonymizes the content or information. The bill would require the operator to provide notice to a minor that the minor may remove the content or information, as specified.

As always, the very best of intentions motivate this proposal. There’s no doubt that some digital footprints left online by minors could come back to haunt them in the future, and that concern for their future reputation and privacy is the primary motivation for the measure. Alas, noble-minded laws like these often lead to many unintended consequences, and even some thorny constitutional issues. I’d be hard-pressed to do a better job of itemizing those potential problems than Eric Goldman, of Santa Clara University School of Law, and Stephen Balkam, Founder and CEO of the Family Online Safety Institute, have done in recent essays on the issue.

Goldman’s latest essay in Forbes argues that “California’s New ‘Online Eraser’ Law Should Be Erased” and meticulously documents the many problems with the law. “The law is riddled with ambiguities,” Goldman argues, including the fact that:

First, it may not be clear when a website/app is “directed” to teens rather than adults. The federal law protecting kids’ privacy (Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act, or COPPA) only applies to pre-teens, so this will be a new legal analysis for most websites and apps. Second, the law is unclear about when the minor can exercise the removal right. Must the choice be made while the user is still a minor, or can a centenarian decide to remove posts that are over 8 decades old? I think the more natural reading of the statute is that the removal right only applies while the user is still a minor. If that’s right, the law would counterproductively require kids to make an “adult” decision (what content do they want to stand behind for the rest of their lives) when they are still kids. Third, the removal right doesn’t apply if the kids were paid or received “other consideration” for their content. What does “other consideration” mean in this context? If the marketing and distribution inherently provided by a user-generated content (UGC) website is enough, the law will almost never apply. Perhaps we’ll see websites/apps offering nominal compensation to users to bypass the law.

Goldman also notes that it is unclear why California should even have the right to be regulating the Internet in this fashion. It is his opinion that, “states categorically lack authority to regulate the Internet because the Internet is a borderless electronic network, and websites/apps typically cannot make their electronic packets honor state borders.” I’ve been moving in that direction for the past decade myself since patchwork policies for the Internet — regardless of the issue — can really muck up the free flow of both speech and commerce. I teased out my own concerns about this in my January essay on “The Perils of Parochial Privacy Policies” and argued that the a world of “50 state Internet Bureaus isn’t likely to help the digital economy or serve the long-term interests of consumers.”  Sadly, some privacy advocates seem to be cheering on this sort of parochial regulation anyway without thinking through those consequences. They are probably just happy to have another privacy law on the books, but as I always try to point out not just in this context but also in debates over online child safety, cybersecurity, and digital copyright protection, the ends rarely justify the means. I just don’t understand why more people who care about true Internet freedom aren’t railing against these stepped-up state efforts (especially the flurry of California activity) and calling it out for the threat that it is.

In an essay over on LinkedIn entitled, “Let’s Delete The ‘Eraser Button,'” Stephen Balkam points out another mystery about the new California law: “It’s unclear why this law was even proposed when there exists a range of robust reporting mechanism across the Internet landscape.” Indeed, in this particular case it seems like much of the law is redundant and unnecessary. “What this bill should have been about is education and awareness, about taking responsibility for our actions and using the tools that already exist across the social media landscape,” Balkam says. “Here are three key actions that can already be taken:

Delete – you can take down or delete postings, comments and photos that you have put up on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and most of the other platforms. Report – anyone can report abusive comments or inappropriate content by others about you or other people and, in many cases, have them removed. Request – you can ask that you be untagged from a photo or that a posting or photo be removed that has been uploaded by someone else. In addition there are in-line privacy settings on many of the leading social media sites, so that you or your teen can choose who sees what.”

Balkam is exactly right. The tools are already there; it’s the education and awareness that are lacking. As I have pointed out countless times here before, there is no need for preemptive regulatory approaches when less-restrictive and potentially equally effective remedies already exist. We just need to do a better job informing users about the existence of those tools and methods and then explain how to take advantage of them. Just adding more layers of law — especially parochial regulation — is not going to make that happen magically. Worse yet, in the process, such laws open the barn door to far more creative and meddlesome forms of state-based Internet regulation that should concern us all.

And now for the really interesting question that I have no answer to: Will anyone step up and challenge this law in court?

]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/09/26/california-eraser-button-passes/feed/ 2 73572 Planning for Hypothetical Horribles in Tech Policy Debates https://techliberation.com/2013/08/06/planning-for-hypothetical-horribles-in-tech-policy-debates/ https://techliberation.com/2013/08/06/planning-for-hypothetical-horribles-in-tech-policy-debates/#comments Tue, 06 Aug 2013 20:10:28 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=45362

do not panicIn a recent essay here “On the Line between Technology Ethics vs. Technology Policy,” I made the argument that “We cannot possibly plan for all the ‘bad butterfly-effects’ that might occur, and attempts to do so will result in significant sacrifices in terms of social and economic liberty.” It was a response to a problem I see at work in many tech policy debates today: With increasing regularity, scholars, activists, and policymakers are conjuring up a seemingly endless parade of horribles that will befall humanity unless “steps are taken” to preemptive head-off all the hypothetical harms they can imagine. (This week’s latest examples involve the two hottest technopanic topics du jour: the Internet of Things and commercial delivery drones. Fear and loathing, and plenty of “threat inflation,” are on vivid display.)

I’ve written about this phenomenon at even greater length in my recent law review article, “Technopanics, Threat Inflation, and the Danger of an Information Technology Precautionary Principle,” as well as in two lengthy blog posts asking the questions, “Who Really Believes in ‘Permissionless Innovation’?” and “What Does It Mean to ‘Have a Conversation’ about a New Technology?” The key point I try to get across in those essays is that letting such “precautionary principle” thinking guide policy poses a serious threat to technological progress, economic entrepreneurialism, social adaptation, and long-run prosperity. If public policy is guided at every turn by the precautionary mindset then innovation becomes impossible because of fear of the unknown; hypothetical worst-case scenarios trump all other considerations. Social learning and economic opportunities become far less likely under such a regime. In practical terms, it means fewer services, lower quality goods, higher prices, diminished economic growth, and a decline in the overall standard of living.

Indeed, if we live in constant fear of the future and become paralyzed by every boogeyman scenario that our creative little heads can conjure up, then we’re bound to end up looking as silly as this classic 2005 parody from The Onion, “Everything That Can Go Wrong Listed.” It joked that “A worldwide consortium of scientists, mathematicians, and philosophers is nearing the completion of the ambitious, decade-long project of cataloging everything that can go wrong.” The goal of the project was to create a “catalog of every possible unfortunate scenario” such that, “every hazardous possibility will be known to man.” Here was the hilarious fake snippet of the imaginary page 55,623 of the project:

snippet of Onion list of everything that can go wrong

I loved the story’s concluding quote from obviously fake Popular Science writer Brian Dyce, who said:

“Within a decade, laypeople might be able to log onto the Internet or go to their public library and consult volumes listing the myriad things that could go wrong,” Dyce said. “It could prove a very valuable research tool or preventative stopgap. For example, if you’re shopping for a car, you can prepare yourself by boning up on the 98,627 bad things that could happen during the purchasing process. This project could have deep repercussions on the way people make decisions, and also the amount of time they spend locked in their bedrooms.”

So, in the spirit of keeping people locked in their bedrooms, cowering in fear of hypothetical horribles, I have started a list of things we must all live in fear of and plan for! (I actually pulled most of these from articles and essays in my Evernote files that I tagged with the words “fear,” “panic.” and “dread.” I have collected more things than I can count.)  Anyway, please feel free to add your own suggestions down below in the comments.

  • Without beefed-up cybersecurity regulations, we’ll face an “electronic Pearl Harbor.”
  • Without pervasive NSA & law enforcement snooping, we face “the next 9/11.”
  • An unfiltered Internet experience will lead the next generation to become nymphomaniacs and sex-starved freaks.
  • Social networking sites are a “predators’ playground” where sex perverts prey on children.
  • Twitter and texting will lead to the end of reading and/or long-form writing.
  • Personalized digital services will lead to an online echo-chamber (“filter bubbles”) and potentially even the death of deliberative democracy.
  • Robots are going to take all our jobs and then turn us into their slaves.
  • 3D printing will destroy manufacturing jobs and innovation.
  • Strong crypto will just let the bad guys hide their secrets and nefarious plots from us.
  • Bitcoin will just lead to every teenager buying illegal drugs online.
  • Hackers will hijack my car’s electronic systems and force it to drive off a bridge with me inside.
  • Hackers are just going to remotely hack all those new medical devices I might use and give me a heart attack or aneurism.
  • Hackers are just going to remotely hack my home and all its “smart devices” and then shut down all my stuff or spy on me.
  • Geolocation technology is only going to empower perverts and stalkers to harass women.
  • Targeted online ads just brainwash us into buying things we don’t need and will lead to massive discrimination.
  • Big Data and the “quantified self” movement are just going to lead to massive social and economic discrimination.
  • Violent video games are teaching our kids to be killers and will lead to a massive spike in murders and violent crime.
  • Facebook is a “monopoly” and “public utility” from which there is no escape if you want to have an online existence.
  • Google Glass will mean everybody will just take pictures of me naked in the gym locker room.
  • Wearable technology will lead to a massive peer-to-peer Panopticon.
  • Commercial drones are going to fall from the sky and kill us (if they don’t zap us with lasers or death rays first).

Hey, it could all happen, right?!  Therefore, as The Onion proposed, we must “catalog every possible unfortunate scenario” such that “every hazardous possibility will be known to man” and then plan, plan, PLAN, P-L-A-N accordingly!

Alternatively, we could realize that, again and again, humans have shown the remarkable ability to gradually adapt to new technologies and assimilate them into their lives through trial-and-error experimentation, the evolution of norms, and the development of coping mechanisms. It’s called resiliency. It happens. We live, we learn, we move on.

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