What explains the rebirth of analog era media? Many people (including me!) predicted that vinyl records, turntables, broadcast TV antennas and even printed books seemed destined for the dustbin of technological history. We were so wrong, as I note in this new oped that has gone out through the Tribune Wire Service.

“Many of us threw away our record collections and antennas and began migrating from physical books to digital ones,” I note. “Now, these older technologies are enjoying a revival. What explains their resurgence, and what’s the lesson?”

I offer some data about the rebirth of analog era media as well as some possible explanations for their resurgence. “With vinyl records and printed books, people enjoy making a physical connection with the art they love. They want to hold it in their hands, display it on their wall and show it off to their friends. Digital music or books don’t satisfy that desire, no matter how much more convenient and affordable they might be. The mediums still matter.”

Read more here. Meanwhile, my own personal vinyl collection continues to grow without constraint! …

Last Friday I attended a fascinating conference hosted by the Duke Law School’s Center for Innovation Policy about television regulation and competition. It’s remarkable how quickly television competition has changed and how online video providers are putting pressure on old business models.

I’ve been working on a project about competition in technology, communications, and media and one chart that stands out is one that shows increasing competition in pay television, below. Namely, that cable providers have lost nearly 15 million subscribers since 2002. Cable was essentially the only game in town in 1990 for pay television (about 100% market share). Yet today, cable’s market share approaches 50%. This competitive pressure accounts for some cable companies trying to merge in recent years.

Much of this churn by subscribers was to satellite providers but it’s the “telephone” companies providing TV that’s really had a competitive impact in recent years. Telcos went from about 0% market share in 2005 to 13% in 2014. This new competition can be tied to Congress finally allowing telephone companies to provide TV in 1996. However, these new services didn’t really get started until a decade ago when 1) digital and IP technology improved, and 2) the FCC made it clear by deregulating DSL ISPs that telephone companies could expect a market return for investing in fiber broadband nationwide.

UPDATE:

And below is market share data going back ten more years to 1994 using FCC data, which uses a slightly different measurement methodology (hence the kink around 2003-2004). I’ve also omitted market share of Home Satellite Dish (those large dishes you sometimes see in rural areas). Though HSD has negligible market share today, it had a few million subscribers in the mid-1990s. I may add HSD later.

Congress is considering reforming television laws and solicited comment from the public last month. On Friday, I submitted a letter encouraging the reform effort. I attached the paper Adam and I wrote last year about the current state of video regulations and the need for eliminating the complex rules for television providers.

As I say in the letter, excerpted below, pay TV (cable, satellite, and telco-provided) is quite competitive, as this chart of pay TV market share illustrates. In addition to pay TV there is broadcast, Netflix, Sling, and other providers. Consumers have many choices and the old industrial policy for mass media encourages rent-seeking and prevents markets from evolving.

Dear Chairman Upton and Chairman Walden:

Thank you for the opportunity to respond to the Committee’s December 2014 questions on video regulation.

…The labyrinthine communications and copyright laws governing video distribution are now distorting the market and therefore should be made rational. Congress should avoid favoring some distributors at the expense of free competition. Instead, policy should encourage new entrants and consumer choice.

The focus of the committee’s white paper on how to “foster” various television distributors, while understandable, was nonetheless misguided. Such an inquiry will likely lead to harmful rules that favor some companies and programmers over others, based on political whims. Congress and the FCC should get out of “fostering” the video distribution markets completely. A light-touch regulatory approach will prevent the damaging effects of lobbying for privilege and will ensure the primacy of consumer choice.

Some of the white paper’s questions may actually lead policy astray. Question 4, for instance, asks how we should “balance consumer welfare and the rights of content creators” in video markets. Congress should not pursue this line of inquiry too far. Just consider an analogous question: how do we balance consumer welfare and the interests of content creators in literature and written content? The answer is plain: we don’t. It’s bizarre to even contemplate.

Congress does not currently regulate the distribution markets of literature and written news and entertainment. Congress simply gives content producers copyright protection, which is generally applicable. The content gets aggregated and distributed on various platforms through private ordering via contract. Congress does not, as in video, attempt to keep competitive parity between competing distributors of written material: the Internet, paperback publishers, magazine publishers, books on tape, newsstands, and the like. Likewise, Congress should forego any attempt at “balancing” in video content markets. Instead, eliminate top-down communications laws in favor of generally applicable copyright laws, antitrust laws, and consumer protection laws.

As our paper shows, the video distribution marketplace has changed drastically. From the 1950s to the 1990s, cable was essentially consumers’ only option for pay TV. Those days are long gone, and consumers now have several television distributors and substitutes to choose from. From close to 100 percent market share of the pay TV market in the early 1990s, cable now has about 50 percent of the market. Consumers can choose popular alternatives like satellite- and telco-provided television as well as smaller players like wireless carriers, online video distributors (such as Netflix and Sling), wireless Internet service providers (WISPs), and multichannel video and data distribution service (MVDDS or “wireless cable”). As many consumers find Internet over-the-top television adequate, and pay TV an unnecessary expense, “free” broadcast television is also finding new life as a distributor.

The New York Times reported this month that “[t]elevision executives said they could not remember a time when the competition for breakthrough concepts and creative talent was fiercer” (“Aiming to Break Out in a Crowded TV Landscape,” January 11, 2015). As media critics will attest, we are living in the golden age of television. Content is abundant and Congress should quietly exit the “fostering competition” game. Whether this competition in television markets came about because of FCC policy or in spite of it (likely both), the future of television looks bright, and the old classifications no longer apply. In fact, the old “silo” classifications stand in the way of new business models and consumer choice.

Therefore, Congress should (1) merge the FCC’s responsibilities with the Federal Trade Commission or (2) abolish the FCC’s authority over video markets entirely and rely on antitrust agencies and consumer protection laws in television markets. New Zealand, the Netherlands, Denmark, and other countries have merged competition and telecommunications regulators. Agency merger streamlines competition analyses and prevents duplicative oversight.

Finally, instead of fostering favored distribution channels, Congress’ efforts are better spent on reforms that make it easier for new entrants to build distribution infrastructure. Such reforms increase jobs, increase competition, expand consumer choice, and lower consumer prices.

Thank you for initiating the discussion about updating the Communications Act. Reform can give America’s innovative telecommunications and mass-media sectors a predictable and technology neutral legal framework. When Congress replaces industrial planning in video with market forces, consumers will be the primary beneficiaries.

Sincerely,

Brent Skorup Research Fellow, Technology Policy Program Mercatus Center at George Mason University

I’ve spent a lot of time here through the years trying to identify the factors that fuel moral panics and “technopanics.” (Here’s a compendium of the dozens of essays I’ve written here on this topic.) I brought all this thinking together in a big law review article (“Technopanics, Threat Inflation, and the Danger of an Information Technology Precautionary Principle”) and then also in my new booklet, “Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom.”

One factor I identify as contributing to panics is the fact that “bad news sells.” As I noted in the book, “Many media outlets and sensationalist authors sometimes use fear-based tactics to gain influence or sell books. Fear mongering and prophecies of doom are always effective media tactics; alarmism helps break through all the noise and get heard.”

In line with that, I want to highly recommend you check out this excellent new oped by John Stossel of Fox Business Network on “Good News vs. ‘Pessimism Porn‘.”  Stossel correctly notes that “the media win by selling pessimism porn.” He says:

Are you worried about the future? It’s hard not to be. If you watch the news, you mostly see violence, disasters, danger. Some in my business call it “fear porn” or “pessimism porn.” People like the stuff; it makes them feel alive and informed. Of course, it’s our job to tell you about problems. If a plane crashes — or disappears — that’s news. The fact that millions of planes arrive safely is a miracle, but it’s not news. So we soak in disasters — and warnings about the next one: bird flu, global warming, potential terrorism. I won Emmys hyping risks but stopped winning them when I wised up and started reporting on the overhyping of risks. My colleagues didn’t like that as much.

He continues on to note how, even though all the data clearly proves that humanity’s lot is improving, the press relentlessly push the “pessimism porn.” He argues that “time and again, humanity survived doomsday. Not just survived, we flourish.” But that doesn’t stop the doomsayers from predicting that the sky is always set to fall. In particular, the press knows they can easily gin up more readers and viewers by amping up the fear-mongering and featuring loonies who will be all too happy to play the roles of pessimism porn stars. Of course, plenty of academics, activists, non-profit organizations and even companies are all too eager to contribute to this gloom-and-doom game since they benefit from the exposure or money it generates.

The problem with all this, of course, is that it perpetuates societal fears and distrust. It also sometimes leads to misguided policies based on hypothetical worst-case thinking. As I argue in my new book, which Stossel was kind enough to cite in his essay, if we spend all our time living in constant fear of worst-case scenarios—and premising public policy upon them—it means that best-case scenarios will never come about.

Facts, not fear, should guide our thinking about the future.

______________________

Related Reading:

• Journalists, Technopanics & the Risk Response Continuum (July 15, 2012)
• How & Why the Press Sometimes “Sells Digital Fear” (April 8, 2012)
• danah boyd’s “Culture of Fear” Talk (March 26, 2012)
• Prophecies of Doom & the Politics of Fear in Cybersecurity Debates (Aug. 8., 2011)
• Cybersecurity Threat Inflation Watch: Blood-Sucking Weapons! (March 22, 2012)

Aereo’s antenna system is frequently characterized perjoratively as a Rube Goldberg contraption, including in the Supreme Court oral arguments. Funny enough, Preston Padden, a veteran television executive, has characterized the legal system producing over-the-air broadcast television–Aereo’s chief legal opponents–precisely the same way. It’s also ironic that Aereo is in a fight for its life over alleged copyright violations since communications law diminishes the import of copyright law and makes copyright almost incomprehensible. Larry Downes calls the legal arguments for and against Aereo a “tangled mess.” David Post at the Volokh Conspiracy likewise concluded the situation is “pretty bizarre, when you think about it” after briefly exploring how copyright law interacts with communications law.

I agree, but Post actually understates how distorted the copyright law becomes when TV programs pass through a broadcaster’s towers, as opposed to a cable company’s headend. In particular, a broadcaster, which is mostly a passive transmitter of TV programs, gains more control over the programs than the copyright owners. It’s nearly impossible to separate the communications law distortions from the copyright issues, but the Aereo issue could be solved relatively painlessly by the FCC. It’s unfortunate copyright and television law intertwine like this because a ruling adverse to Aereo could potentially–and unnecessarily–upend copyright law.

This week I’ve seen many commentators, even Supreme Court justices, mischaracterize the state of television law when discussing the Aereo case. This is a very complex area and below is my attempt to lay out some of the deeper legal issues driving trends in the television industry that gave rise to the Aereo dispute. Crucially, the law is even more complex than most people realize, which benefits industry insiders and prevents sensible reforms.

The FCC, and Congress to a lesser extent, has gone to great lengths to protect broadcasters from competition from other television distributors, as the Copyright Office has said. There is nothing magical about free broadcast television. It’s simply another distribution platform that competes with several other TV platforms, including cable, satellite, IPTV (like AT&T U-Verse), and, increasingly, over-the-top streaming (like Netflix and Amazon Prime Instant Video).

Hundreds of channels and thousands of copyrighted programs are distributed by these non-broadcast distributors (mostly) through marketplace negotiations.

Strange things happen to copyrights when programs are delivered via the circuitous route 1) through a broadcast tower and 2) to a cable/satellite operator. Namely, copyright owners, by law, lose direct control over their intellectual property when local broadcasters transmit it. At that point, regulators, not copyright holders, determine the nature of bargaining and the prices paid.

Distribution of non-local broadcast programming

Right away, an oddity arises. Copyright treatment of local broadcasts differs from distant (non-local) broadcasts. Cable and satellite companies have never paid copyright royalties for signals from a local broadcast. (This is one reason the broadcast lawyer denied that Aereo is a cable company during Supreme Court oral arguments–Aereo merely transmits local broadcast signals.) But if a cable or satellite company retransmits signals from a non-local (“distant”) broadcaster, the company pays the Copyright Office for a copyright license. However, this license is not bargained for with the copyright holder; it is a compulsory license. Programmers are compelled to license their program and in return receive the price set by the panel of Copyright Office officials.

The Copyright Office has asked Congress for over 30 years to eliminate the compulsory license system for distant broadcasts. There are few major distant broadcasters carried by cable companies but the most popular is WGN, a Chicago broadcaster that is carried on many cable systems across the country. The programmers complain they’re underpaid and the Copyright Office has the impossible task of deciding a fair price for a compulsory copyright license. Alleged underpayment is partly why TBS, in 1998, converted from a distant broadcast network to a pure cable network, where TBS could bargain with cable and satellite companies directly.

Distribution of local broadcast programming

Yet things get even stranger when you examine how local broadcasts are treated. Copyright is, as best as I can tell, a nullity when a program is broadcast by a local broadcaster and then retransmitted by a cable company. Until 1992, no payments passed from cable companies to either the broadcaster or copyright holder of broadcast programs. Congress made the retransmission of locally-broadcasted programs royalty-free. Cable companies captured the free over-the-air signals and sold those channels along with cable channels to subscribers.

Why would broadcasters and programmers stand for this? They tolerated this for decades because the FCC requires broadcasts to be “free”–that is, funded by ads. Local broadcasters and programmers benefited from cable distribution because cable TV reaches more viewers that broadcasters can’t reach.

Then in 1992, as cable TV grew, Congress decided to rebalance the competitive scales. Congress created a new property right that ensured local broadcasters got paid by cable companies–the retransmission right. Congress did not require a copyright royalty payment. So cable (and later satellite) still didn’t pay copyright royalties for local broadcasts. The “retransmission right” is held by, not the copyright owner, but the owner of the broadcast tower. This is a bizarre situation where, as the Copyright Office says, Congress accords a “licensee of copyrighted works (broadcasters) greater proprietary rights than the owner of copyright.”

Welcome to the bizarro world of broadcast television that Aereo finds itself. On the bright side, perhaps the very public outcry over Aereo means the laws that permitted Aereo’s regulatory arbitrage will be scrutinized and rationalized. In the short term, I’m hoping the Supreme Court, as Downes mentions, punts the case to a lower court for more fact-finding. Aereo is a communications law case disguised as a copyright case. These issues really need to be before the FCC for a determination about what is a “cable operator” and an “MVPD.” A finding that Aereo is either one would end this copyright dispute.

Some recent tech news provides insight into the trajectory of broadband and television markets. These stories also indicate a poor prognosis for a net neutrality. Political and ISP opposition to new rules aside (which is substantial), even net neutrality proponents point out that “neutrality” is difficult to define and even harder to implement. Now that the line between “Internet video” and “television” delivered via Internet Protocol (IP) is increasingly blurring, net neutrality goals are suffering from mission creep.

First, there was the announcement that Netflix, like many large content companies, was entering into a paid peering agreement with Comcast, prompting a complaint from Netflix CEO Reed Hastings who argued that ISPs have too much leverage in negotiating these interconnection deals.

Second, Comcast and Apple discussed a possible partnership whereby Comcast customers would receive prioritized access to Apple’s new video service. Apple’s TV offering would be a “managed service” exempt from net neutrality obligations.

Interconnection and managed services are generally not considered net neutrality issues. They are not “loopholes.” They were expressly exempted from the FCC’s 2010 (now-defunct) rules. However, net neutrality proponents are attempting to bring interconnection and managed services to the FCC’s attention as the FCC crafts new net neutrality rules. Net neutrality proponents have an uphill battle already, and the following trends won’t help.

1. Interconnection becomes less about traffic burden and more about leverage.

The ostensible reason that content companies like Netflix (or third parties like Cogent) pay ISPs for interconnection is because video content unloads a substantial amount of traffic onto ISPs’ last-mile networks.

Someone has to pay for network upgrades to handle the traffic. Typically, the parties seem to abide by the equity principle that whoever is sending the traffic–in this case, Netflix–should bear the costs via paid peering. That way, the increased expense is incurred by Netflix who can spread costs across its subscribers. If ISPs incurred the expense of upgrades, they’d have to spread costs over its subscriber base, but many of their subscribers are not Netflix users.

That principle doesn’t seem to hold for WatchESPN, which is owned by Disney. WatchESPN is an online service that provides live streams of ESPN television programming, like ESPN2 and ESPNU, to personal computers and also includes ESPN3, an online-only livestream of non-marquee sports. If a company has leverage in other markets, like Disney does in TV programming markets, I suspect ISPs can’t or won’t charge for interconnection. These interconnection deals are non-public but Disney probably doesn’t pay ISPs for transmitting WatchESPN traffic onto ISPs’ last-mile networks. The existence of a list of ESPN’s “Participating Providers” indicates that ISPs actually have to pay ESPN for the privilege of carrying WatchESPN content.

Netflix is different from WatchESPN in significant ways (it has substantially more traffic, for one). However, it is a popular service and seems to be flexing its leverage muscle with its Open Connect program, which provided higher-quality videos to participating ISPs. It’s plausible that someday video sources like Netflix will gain leverage, especially as broadband competition increases, and ISPs will have to pay content companies for traffic, rather than the reverse. When competitive leverage is the issue, antitrust agencies, not the FCC, have the appropriate tools to police business practices.

2. The rise of managed services in video.

Managed services include services ISPs provide to customers like VoIP and video-on-demand (VOD). They are on data streams that receive priority for guaranteed quality assurance since customers won’t tolerate a jittery phone call or movie stream. Crucially, managed services are carried on the same physical broadband network but are on separate data streams that don’t interfere with a customer’s Internet service.

The Apple-Comcast deal, if it comes to fruition, would be the first major video offering provided as a managed service. (Comcast has experimented with managed services affiliated with Xbox and TiVo.) Verizon is also a potential influential player since it just bought an Intel streaming TV service. Future plans are uncertain but Verizon might launch a TV product that it could sell outside of the FiOS footprint with a bundle of cable channels, live television, and live sports.

Net neutrality proponents decry managed services as exploiting a loophole in the net neutrality rules but it’s hardly a loophole. The FCC views managed services as a social good that ISPs should invest in. The FCC’s net neutrality advisory committee last August released a report and concluded that managed services provide “considerable” benefits to consumers. The report went on to articulate principles that resemble a safe harbor for ISPs contemplating managed services. Given this consensus view, I see no reason why the FCC would threaten managed services with new rules.

3. Uncertainty about what is “the Internet” and what is “television.”

Managed services and other developments are blurring the line between the Internet and television, which makes “neutrality” on the Internet harder to define and implement. We see similar tensions in phone service. Residential voice service is already largely carried via IP. According to FCC data, 2014 will likely be the year that more people subscribe to VoIP service than plain-old-telephone service. The IP Transition reveals the legal and practical tensions when technology advances make the FCC’s regulatory silos–“phone” and “Internet”–anachronistic.

Those same technology changes and legal ambiguity are carrying over into television. TV is also increasingly carried via IP and it’s unclear where “TV” ends and “Internet video” begins. This distinction matters because television is regulated heavily while Internet video is barely regulated at all. On one end of the spectrum you have video-on-demand from a cable operator. VOD is carried over a cable operator’s broadband lines but fits under the FCC’s cable service rules. On the other end of the spectrum you have Netflix and YouTube. Netflix and YouTube are online-only video services delivered via broadband but are definitely outside of cable rules.

In the gray zone between “TV” and “Internet video” lies several services and physical networks that are not entirely in either category. These services include WatchESPN and ESPN3, which are owned by a cable network and are included in traditional television negotiations but delivered via a broadband connection.

IPTV, also, is not entirely TV nor Internet video. AT&T’s UVerse, Verizon’s FiOS, and Google Fiber’s television product are pure or hybrid IPTV networks that “look” like cable or satellite TV to consumers but are not. AT&T, Verizon, and Google voluntarily assent to many, but not all, cable regulations even though their service occupies a legally ambiguous area.

Finally, on the horizon, are managed video and gaming services and “virtual MSOs” like Apple’s or Verizon’s video products. These are probably outside of traditional cable rules–like program access rules and broadcast carriage mandates–but there is still regulatory uncertainty.

Broadband and video markets are in a unique state of flux. New business models are slowly emerging and firms are attempting to figure out each other’s leverage. However, as phone and video move out of their traditional regulatory categories and converge with broadband services, companies face substantial regulatory compliance risks. In such an environment, more than ever, the FCC should proceed cautiously and give certainty to firms. In any case, I’m optimistic that experts’ predictions will be borne out: ex ante net neutrality rules are looking increasingly rigid and inappropriate for this ever-changing market environment.

Related Posts

1. Yes, Net Neutrality is a Dead Man Walking. We Already Have a Fast Lane.
2. Who Won the Net Neutrality Case?
3. If You’re Reliant on the Internet, You Loathe Net Neutrality.

There are few things more likely to get constituents to call their representative than TV programming blackouts, and the increase in broadcasting disruptions arising from licensing disputes in recent years means Congress may be forced to once again fix television and copyright laws. As Jerry Brito explains at Reason, the current standoff between CBS and Time Warner Cable is the result of bad regulations, which contribute to more frequent broadcaster blackouts. While each type of TV distributor (cable, satellite, broadcasters, telcos) is both disadvantaged and advantaged through regulation, broadcasters are particularly favored. As the US Copyright Office has said, the rule at issue in CBS-TWC is “part of a thicket of communications law requirements aimed at protecting and supporting the broadcast industry.”

But as we approach a damaging tipping point of rising programming costs and blackouts, Congress’ potential rescuer–Aereo–appears on the horizon, possibly buying more time before a major regulatory rewrite. Aereo, for the uninitiated, is a small online company that sets up tiny antennas in certain cities to capture broadcast television station signals–like CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox, the CW, and Univision–and streams those signals online to paying customers, who can watch live or record the local signals captured by their own “rented” Aereo antenna. Broadcasters hate this because the service deprives them of lucrative retransmission fees and unsuccessfully sued to get Aereo to cease operations.

Let’s back up. Broadcast television is–as my colleague Tom Hazlett says–the “killer app of 1952.” It’s an old technology featuring a few dozen channels that hasn’t fared well with the rise of subscription television offering hundreds of channels–Comcast, Dish, U-Verse, and others. Only about 10% to 15% of households rely on rabbit ears antennas to receive free broadcast TV, while the rest have a subscription.

I’m doubtful Congress will step in and make online distributors like Aereo pay for retransmission. While the laws tilt in broadcasters’ favor, Aereo gives cable and satellite companies additional leverage since–if they have a protracted fight with a broadcaster–they can direct their customers to Aereo. TWC is, in fact, doing this in its current dispute with CBS. Since customers have an online option, no one needs to miss NFL preseason football or the latest How I Met Your Mother. Aereo is not an ideal solution, but it gives a cable or satellite provider another bargaining weapon.

For several reasons, I think Congress may allow Aereo to proceed. First, with the variety of print, online, and television options consumers face today, broadcast programming is no longer a sacred cow. Congress, the FCC, and the tech and telecom industries are anxious to get more broadcasters off the air to make room for spectrum-hungry mobile technologies. That is the precise purpose of the pending incentive auctions. Broadcasters are a powerful group with compelling arguments for the status quo–they provide high-demand local news, sports, and weather, for instance–but many people are beginning to realistically imagine life without them.

Second, the primary political justification for protecting local broadcasters–local ownership and diversity–has “virtually vanished” because of industry consolidation in the 1990s and 2000s, as Harold Feld from Public Knowledge notes. It was easier in the past to defend these regulatory carve-outs for broadcasters when locally-owned operations were the beneficiaries, but today many broadcasters are owned by large media companies.

Finally, in the dynamic video marketplace, Congress may be hesitant to impose more regulations on new video technologies. Protecting a 1950s technology by enforcing 1990s laws on today’s Internet services makes little sense. Already, television laws passed in the 1990s look terribly dated and give Congress and the FCC headaches. Rewriting television and copyright laws is a huge task involving many powerful industries seeking protection from disruptive law changes. With the House and Senate controlled by different parties, this makes a grand compromise even less likely.

So Aereo and other antenna rental services represent some relief for regulators since it gives cable and satellite providers a little more leverage. The service is only in a few cities but is quickly expanding. If consumers adopt the service during future disputes, a semblance of equilibrium may return when subscription services bargain with broadcasters. For that reason, Congress may want to sit back and see how it plays out.

CBS and Time Warner Cable have been embroiled in a heated contractual battle over the past week that has resulted in viewers in some major markets losing access to CBS programming. When disputes like these go nuclear and signal blackouts occur, it is inevitable that some folks will call for policy interventions since nobody likes it when the content they love goes dark.

While some policy responses are warranted in this matter, policymakers should proceed with caution. Heated contractual negotiations are a normal part of any capitalist marketplace. We shouldn’t expect lawmakers to intervene to speed up negotiations or set content prices because that would disrupt the normal allocation of programming by placing a regulatory thumb too heavily on one side of the scale. This is why I am somewhat sympathetic to CBS in this fight. In an age when content creators struggle to protect their copyrighted content and get compensation for it, the last thing we need is government intervention that undermines the few distribution schemes that actually work well.

On the other hand, Time Warner Cable deserves sympathy here, too, since CBS currently enjoys some preexisting regulatory benefits. As I noted in this 2012 Forbes oped, “Toward a True Free Market in Television Programming,” many layers of red tape still encumber America’s video marketplace and prevent a truly free market in video programming from developing. The battle here revolves around the “retransmission consent” rules that were put in place as part of the Cable Act of 1992 and govern how video distributors carry signals from TV broadcasters, which includes CBS.

But those “retrans” rules are not the only part of the regulatory mess here. There are many related federal rules that tip the scales toward broadcasters and content creators, such as the requirement that video distributors carry broadcast signals even if they don’t want to (“must carry”); rules that prohibit distributors from striking deals with broadcasters outside their local communities (“network non-duplication” and “syndicated exclusivity” rules); regs specifying where broadcast channels appear on the cable channel lineup; and prohibitions against carrying sporting events on cable when the local stadium doesn’t sell all its seats on game day (“sports blackout rule”).

As they say on TV.. ” But Wait, There’s More!” Working in the favor of video distributors are the compulsory licensing requirements of the Copyright Act of 1976, which essentially forced a “duty to deal” upon broadcasters. Broadcasters have to let cable operators and other video distributors retransmit local stations, though the system at least ensures they get compensated for it. As I noted in my old Forbes essay, along with must carry rules, “Compulsory licensing is the original sin of video marketplace regulation. We could have avoided most of the regulatory mess of the past quarter century if Congress had simply left these rights and contractual negotiations alone. Once Congress forced broadcasters to share their programming, however, marketplace manipulation was off and rolling.”

Of course, the more primal and problematic intervention came decades before in the 1920s and ’30s when the government decided to nationalize spectrum management. Once mandates instead of markets where chosen as the primary allocation agent, America was off and running with a grand experiment in spectrum central planning. We’re still living with the results today. The very fact that spectrum is licensed and can only be used and sold for very narrow purposes as detailed in meticulous FCC regulations is a sign of just how far-removed we are from a pure free market here.

The question now is, what are we going to do about this fine mess? And is there any chance we can get it done?

The problem in this debate is that there are multiple layers of interventions that have built up over the years and created constituencies that are wedded to their preservation. Broadcasters, networks, independent content creators, big cable companies, small cable companies, satellite companies, sports leagues, and viewing consumers themselves — they all have conflicting interests and a stake in how this debate turns out. In his 2012 Mercatus Center working paper, “Consumer Welfare and TV Program Regulation,” media economist Bruce M. Owen noted that “What distinguishes TV programs from other mass media content, including both traditional print and new online media, is the extreme eagerness of Washington to engage in efforts to prevent markets from working freely, often in response to interest group pressures and opportunities for political advantage and with almost complete indifference to the welfare of consumers.”

As a result, if you talk to almost anyone involved in this debate, they will all insist that only their very specific reforms are the ones that can or should be implemented. Consequently, comprehensive reform will be challenging precisely because of all the conflicting interests and layers of law and regulation that must be eradicated.

But at least there is a blueprint for how to get the job done right. Many times here before I have written about “The Next Generation Television Marketplace Act,” which was floated last session by Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) and then-Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC). It proposed wiping off the books all the archaic rules outlined above. Alas, the bill never went anywhere in the last Congress and now that Sen. DeMint has left to lead the Heritage Foundation, there is no supporter in the Senate this session. Instead, we have some lawmakers floating bad ideas like S.912, the “Television Consumer Freedom Act of 2013,” which just proposes more regulatory gaming of an already over-gamed system.

We instead need policy reforms like the old DeMint-Scalise bill that clean up the regulatory mess of the past. But there just isn’t much appetite for such a house-cleaning. Most parties affected by these rules want very specific outcomes and deregulation won’t give them any such guarantees. After all, there will still be blackouts after deregulation. And the cost of some content may continue to go up in response to demand. And there will still be fights over sports programming. And there’s no certainty that all local broadcasters or small video distributors will survive. And so on, and so on.

But it is also true that a deregulatory environment is more likely to lead to even more experimentation and innovation with new business models, technologies, and methods of content creation and delivery. We already see much innovation in this marketplace despite all the red tape that exists. Just look at what’s been going on recent years with alternative video delivery platforms, including: Netflix, Hulu, XBox Live, Vudu, Roku, Redbox, Boxee, Amazon, Apple TV, Aereo, Google Chromecast, and so on. And don’t forget the strides that the old broadcast and cable giants have made here, too. CBS is actually a pretty good model for how content can be re-purposed online in creative ways on a firm’s own digital platform. Likewise, cable companies like Time Warner Cable are slowly but surely adapting to consumers’ demand for video to be delivered to multiple devices.

Of course, there there will always be hiccups along the road to video nirvana. Some regulatory activists seemingly expect that all content can be delivered effortless and cheaply to consumers without giving a thought in the world to just how complicated it is to get that content financed and distributed in the first place. Great content and great delivery platforms don’t just happen by magic or the good intentions of activists or policymakers. Those platforms happen because new markets and monetization mechanisms develop to facilitate them. If we cut back the regulatory deadwood in our modern information marketplace, we’d likely get even more experimentation and innovation that would likely produce all new ways of financing, creating, and delivering content to consumers. But we’ll never know unless we are willing to embrace change and kill all those old regulatory weeds that continue to grow in our information garden.

Alas, if Congress can’t muster the courage to do that, then lawmakers ought to at least consider asking the broadcasters to return all that juicy spectrum they are sitting on. After all, the current retrans racket gives the broadcasters an increasingly lucrative revenue stream when they deliver content on cable and satellite systems (in addition to the advertising revenues they already receive). No good reason exists to give them preferential treatment relative to any other cable channel out there today. Don’t forget, there are all sorts of garden-variety cable carriage disputes that happen outside the regulated retrans system today. (Remember last year’s big spats between AMC vs. Dish and Viacom vs. DirecTV?) There are no special rules that either side can rely on in those instances. So why should special rules be applied to other content companies simply because some of their properties are broadcast channels? Answer: they shouldn’t.

But if no other reforms occur and if companies like CBS still want to be more like a cable mega-channel — albeit, a very handsomely compensated cable channel — then by all means go for it. In the meantime, however, they can return all that spectrum for re-auction for some better purpose. In fact, back early 2009, CBS Corp. President and CEO Les Moonves told an investor conference that moving all CBS network programming to cable and satellite platforms would be “a very interesting proposition.” I agree! But, absent other reforms, it might be time to make that “interesting proposition” a mandatory one.

The Mercatus Center at George Mason University has just released a new paper by Brent Skorup and me entitled, “A History of Cronyism and Capture in the Information Technology Sector.” In this 73-page working paper, which we hope to place in a law review or political science journal shortly, we document the evolution of government-granted privileges, or “cronyism,” in the information and communications technology marketplace and in the media-producing sectors. Specifically, we offer detailed histories of rent-seeking and regulatory capture in: the early history of the telephony and spectrum licensing in the United States; local cable TV franchising; the universal service system; the digital TV transition in the 1990s; and modern video marketplace regulation (i.e., must-carry and retransmission consent rules, among others.

Our paper also shows how cronyism is slowly creeping into new high-technology sectors.We document how Internet companies and other high-tech giants are among the fastest-growing lobbying shops in Washington these days. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, lobbying spending by information technology sectors has almost doubled since the turn of the century, from roughly $200 million in 2000 to $390 million in 2012.  The computing and Internet sector has been responsible for most of that growth in recent years. Worse yet, we document how many of these high-tech firms are increasingly seeking and receiving government favors, mostly in the form of targeted tax breaks or incentives.

We argue that the creeping cronyism could have two major negative ramifications. First, it could dull entrepreneurialism and competition in this highly innovative sector since time and resources spent on influencing politicians and capturing regulators cannot be spent competing and innovating in the marketplace. Cronyism will also negatively impact consumer welfare by denying consumers more and better products and services. Additionally, consumers might end up paying higher prices or higher taxes due to government privileges for industry.

Second, cronyism also raises the specter of greater government control of the Internet and of the digital economy. When policymakers dispense favors, they usually expect something in return. They also become accustomed to having greater informal powers over the sector receiving favors, and contribute to DC’s infamous “revolving door” problem.

High-tech America’s recent embrace of Washington could take it down the familiar path followed by the agriculture, telecommunications, and automotive sectors (among many others), with government becoming both protector and punisher of industry. Today’s dynamic tech industries will increasingly come under the “Mother, may I?” permission-based regulatory regime that encumbered the older information technology sectors.

Finally, this paper offers strategies for stalling and diminishing the cronyism already taking root in the high-tech sector. We suggest several targeted reforms to limit or undo cronyism. Generally speaking, however, we note that, as economist David R. Henderson argued in an earlier Mercatus Center report, “There is only one way to end, or at least to reduce, the amount of cronyism, and that is to reduce government power.”

The paper can be downloaded from the Mercatus website, SSRN, or Scribd. The Scribd version is embedded down below. (Also, here’s some coverage of the paper over at the Washington Post’s “Wonkblog” from our old colleague Tim Lee. Here’s more coverage from Bloomberg Businessweek and the San Francisco Chronicle. And here’s a U.S. News oped that Brent and I wrote condensing our paper into just 600 words. Finally, a short 3-minute video of me discussing the problem of tech cronyism is also embedded below.)

A History of Cronyism and Capture in the Information Technology Sector [Thierer and Skorup – July 2013] by Adam Thierer

Gina Keating, author of Netflixed: The Epic Battle for America’s Eyeballs, discusses the startup of Netflix and their competition with Blockbuster.

Keating begins with the history of the company and their innovative improvements to the movie rental experience. She discusses their use of new technology and marketing strategies in DVD rental, which inspired Blockbuster to adapt to the changing market.

Keating goes on to describe Netflix’s transition to internet streaming and Blockbuster’s attempts to retain their market share.

Download

Related Links

• Netflixed: The Epic Battle for America’s Eyeballs, Keating
• Gina Keating’s New Book about the Rise of Netflix, Babayan
• ‘Netflixed,’ Book by Gina Keating, Describes CEO Reed Hastings As a Nasty Boss’ Liedtke

As noted here last week, as part of their Marginal Revolution University online courses, Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok have been rolling out several classes on “Economics of the Media.” I think TLF readers will be interested in checking out their lessons on “Bundling” and “Cable TV Regulation” since these are topics we have frequently discussed here over the years. I’ve embedded those two presentations below, but please go the MRU site and watch all the videos in their media economics course when you get a chance. They are excellent.

When the smoke cleared and I found myself half caught-up on sleep, the information and sensory overload that was CES 2013 had ended.

There was a kind of split-personality to how I approached the event this year. Monday through Wednesday was spent in conference tracks, most of all the excellent Innovation Policy Summit put together by the Consumer Electronics Association. (Kudos again to Gary Shapiro, Michael Petricone and their team of logistics judo masters.)

The Summit has become an important annual event bringing together legislators, regulators, industry and advocates to help solidify the technology policy agenda for the coming year and, in this case, a new Congress.

I spent Thursday and Friday on the show floor, looking in particular for technologies that satisfy what I coined the The Law of Disruption: social, political, and economic systems change incrementally, but technology changes exponentially.

What I found, as I wrote in a long post-mortem for Forbes, is that such technologies are well-represented at CES, but are mostly found at the edges of the show–literally.

In small booths away from the mega-displays of the TV, automotive, smartphone, and computer vendors, in hospitality suites in nearby hotels, or even in sponsored and spontaneous hackathons going on around town, I found ample evidence of a new breed of innovation and innovators, whose efforts may yield nothing today or even in a year, but which could become sudden, overnight market disrupters.

Increasingly, it’s one or the other, which is saying something all by itself. For one thing, how do incumbents compete with such all or nothing innovations?

That, however, is a subject for another day.

For now, consider again the policy implications of such dramatic transformations. As those of us sitting in room N254 debated the finer points of software patents, IP transition, copyright reform, and the misapplication of antitrust law to fast-changing technology industries (increasingly, that means ALL industries), just a few feet away the real world was changing under our feet.

The policy conference was notably tranquil this year, without such previous hot-button topics as net neutrality, SOPA, or the lack of progress on spectrum reform to generate antagonism among the participants. But as I wrote at the conclusion of last year’s Summit, at CES, the only law that really matters is Moore’s Law. Technology gets faster, smaller, and cheaper, not just predictably but exponentially.

As a result, the contrast between what the regulators talk about and what the innovators do gets more dramatic every year, accentuating the figurative if not the literal distance between the policy Summit and the show floor. I felt as if I had moved between two worlds, one that follows a dainty 19th century wind-up clock and the other that marks time using the Pebble watch, a fully-connected new timepiece funded entirely by Kickstarter.

The lesson for policymakers is sobering, and largely ignored. Humility, caution, and a Hippocratic-like oath of first-do-no-harm are, ironically, the most useful things regulators can do if, as they repeat at shorter intervals, their true goal is to spur innovation, create jobs, and rescue American entrepreneurialism.

The new wisdom is simple, deceptively so. Don’t intervene unless and until it’s clear that there is demonstrable harm to consumers (not competitors), that there’s a remedy for the harm that doesn’t make things, if only unintentionally, worse, and that the next batch of innovations won’t solve the problem more quickly and cheaply.

Or, as they say to new interns in the Emergency Room, “Don’t just do something. Stand there.”

That’s a hard lesson to learn for those of us who think we’re actually surgical policy geniuses, only to find increasingly we’re working with blood-letting and leeches.  And no anesthesia.

In some ways, it’s the opposite of an approach that Adam Thierer calls the Technology Precautionary Principle. Instead of panicking when new technologies raise new (but likely transient) issues, first try to let Moore’s Law sort it out, until and if it becomes crystal clear that it can’t. Instead of a hasty response, opt for a delayed response. Call it the Watchful Waiting Principle.

Not as much fun as fuming, ranting, and regulating at the first sign of chaos, of course, but far more helpful.

That, in any case, is the thread of my dispatches from Vegas:

1. “Telcos Race Toward an all-IP Future,” CNET
2. “At CES, Companies Large and Small Bash Broken Patent System, Forbes
3. “FCC, Stakeholders Align on Communications Policy—For Now,” CNET
4. “The Five Most Disruptive Technologies at CES 2013, Forbes

Ryan Radia recently posted an impassioned and eminently reasonable defense of copyright with which I generally agree, especially since he acknowledges that “our Copyright Act abounds with excesses and deficiencies[.]” However, Ryan does this in the context of defending broadcaster rights against internet retransmitters, such as ivi and Aereo, and I have a bone to pick with that. He writes,

[Copyright] is why broadcasters may give their content away for free to anybody near a metropolitan area who has an antenna and converter box, while simultaneously preventing third parties like ivi from distributing the same exact content (whether free of charge or for a fee). At first, this may seem absurd, but consider how many websites freely distribute their content on the terms they see fit. That’s why I can read all the Techdirt articles I desire, but only on Techdirt’s website. If copyright protection excluded content distributed freely to the general public, creators of popular ad-supported content would soon find others reproducing their content with fewer ads.

I think what Ryan is missing is that copyright is not why broadcasters give away their content for free over the air. The real reason is that they are required to do so as a condition of their broadcast license. In exchange for free access to one of the main inputs of their business–spectrum–broadcasters agree to make their signal available freely to the public. Also, the fact that TV stations broadcast to metro areas (and not regionally or nationally) is not the product of technical limitations or business calculus, but because the FCC decided to only offer metro-sized licenses in the name of “localism.” That’s not a system I like, but it’s the system we have.

So, if what the public gets for giving broadcasters free spectrum is the right to put up an antenna and grab the signals without charge, why does it matter how they do it? To me a service like Aereo is just an antenna with a very long cable to one’s home, just like the Supreme Court found about CATV systems in Fortnightly. What broadcasters are looking to do is double-dip. They want free spectrum, but then they also want to use copyright to limit how the public can access their over-the-air signals. To address Ryan’s analogy from above, Techdirt is not like a broadcaster because it isn’t getting anything from the government in exchange for a “public interest” obligation.

Ideally, of course, spectrum would be privatized. In that world I think we’d see little if any ad-supported broadcast TV because there are much better uses for the spectrum. If there was any broadcast TV, it would be national or regional as there is hardly any market for local content. And the signal would likely be encrypted and pay-per-view, not free over-the-air. In such a world the copyright system Ryan favors makes sense, but that’s not the world we live in. As long as the broadcasters are getting free goodies like spectrum and must-carry, their copyright claims ring hollow.

We’ve said it here before too may times to count: When it comes to the future of content and services — especially online or digitally-delivered content and services — there is no free lunch. Something has to pay for all that stuff and increasingly that something is advertising.  But not just any type of advertising — targeted advertising is the future. We see that again today with Skype’s announcement that it is rolling out an advertising scheme as well as in this Wall Street Journal story (“TV’s Next Wave: Tuning In to You“) about how cable and satellite TV providers are ramping up their targeted advertising efforts.

No doubt, we’ll soon hear the same old complaints and fears trotted out about these developments.  We’ll hear about how “annoying” such ads are or how “creepy” they are.  Yet, few will bother detailing what the actual harm is in being delivered more tailored or targeted commercial messages.  After all, there’s actually a benefit to receiving ads that may be of more interest to us. Much traditional advertising was quite “spammy” in that it was sent to the mass market without a care in the world about who might see or hear it. But in a diverse society, it would be optimal if the ads you saw better reflected your actual interests / tastes. And that’s a primary motivation for why so many content and service providers are turning to ad targeting techniques. As Skype noted in its announcement today: “We may use non-personally identifiable demographic data (e.g. location, gender and age) to target ads, which helps ensure that you see relevant ads. For example, if you’re in the US, we don’t want to show you ads for a product that is only available in the UK.”  Similarly, the Journal article highlights a variety of approaches that television providers are using to better tailor ads to their viewers.

Some will still claim it’s too “creepy.” But, as I noted in my recent filing to the Federal Trade Commission on its new privacy green paper:

If harm is reduced to “creepiness” or even “annoyance” and “unwanted solicitations” as some advocate, it raises the question whether the commercial Internet as we know it can continue to exist.  Such an amorphous standard leaves much to the imagination and opens the door to creative theories of harm that are sure to be exploited.  In such a regime, harm becomes highly conjectural instead of concrete. This makes credible cost-benefit analysis virtually impossible since the debate becomes purely about emotion instead of anything empirical. … Importantly, nothing in the Commission’s proceeding has thus far demonstrated that online data collection and “tracking” represent a clear harm to consumers per se, or that any “market failure” exists here. Such a showing would be difficult since using data to deliver more tailored advertising to consumers can provide important benefits to the public..

I’ve already noted one possible benefit to consumers: ads that are more relevant to them and, therefore, potentially less “annoying.” But the far more important benefits would be (1) keeping costs for content and services reasonable, and/or (2) just keeping that content flowing or those services in business. I go into more detail about both of these potential benefits in my FTC filing, but the reasoning here is pretty straightforward.  Again, advertising is the great subsidizer of the press, media, content, and online services. The reason we already have access to some much great content and so many great (and often free) online services is because of advertising.

But the market for content and services is becoming more cut-throat competitive every day. There’s simply so much stuff to choose from that both the content/service providers and the advertisers are being forced to evolve and change their business models. Locking them into to yesterday’s (or even today’s) advertising and marketing methods limits their ability to respond to competitive pressures and concoct more innovate models going forward.  Targeting will clearly be part of the mix, and if it can help companies continue to provide their content and services to the public — or, better yet, provide them at a more competitive price — then policymakers must take those potential benefits into account when considering privacy regulations, even if some feel such ads are “creepy.”  Again, it’s unclear how “creepiness” is a harm and, even if it is, it has to be stacked against the many potential benefits or more targeted forms of advertising.  There’s no guarantee those methods will succeed, of course, but they should at least be given a chance.

Again, read my FTC comments for more detail.  And let’s say it once more, with feeling: There is no free lunch!

___

Addendum: I just noticed this follow-up Wall Street Journal blog post by Jessica E. Vascellaro on “Calculating the Benefit of a Targeted TV Ads,” which concludes by noting that: “A test of targeted TV ads by Comcast in 2009 found that homes receiving targeted advertising tuned away from the commercials 32% less of the time than homes that received non-targeted ads.” Stated differently, those consumers seeing targeted ads found them 32% less “annoying”! And, again, more effective advertising means more dollars for content and services.

That also reminded me of this eMarketer article I saw last month on how “Targeting Boosts Low Facebook Click Rates.” It noted that:

Just as not all advertisers are created equal, neither are all ads. Facebook’s self-serve ad targeting platform provides marketers with a wide variety of options for narrowing down the audience for their campaigns and targeting them appropriately. And according to data from BLiNQ Media, targeting can provide a dramatic increase in ad effectiveness. Clickthrough rates for campaigns run through the company’s platform were 7.5 times higher for ads targeted with demographic characteristics or interest information gleaned from profiles than for ads that were not targeted.

Indeed, not all advertising is created equal, and more targeted forms of advertising could create more value for content creators, services providers, and consumers. If it’s given a chance, that is.

Loyal readers know of my generally bullish, optimistic outlook regarding the Internet’s impact on society, economy, and even politics. On that last front, columnist Peggy Noonan has a nice piece in today’s Wall Street Journal entitled, “The Internet Helps Us Get Serious.” Serious about politics and political rhetoric, she means. Speaking about how politicians are addressing the current fiscal crisis in the U.S., Noonan argues:

One way to change minds about the current crisis is through information. We all know this, and we all know about the marvelous changes in technology that allow for the spreading of messages that are not necessarily popular with gatekeepers and establishments. But there’s something new happening in the realm of political communication that must be noted. Speeches are back. They have been rescued and restored as a political force by the Internet.

She then makes the point that I always stress when debating Net pessimists: You have to measure progress against the yardstick of the past and ask yourself if we really better off in a world of information scarcity. Noonan does that beautifully when she notes:

In the past quarter-century or so, the speech as a vehicle of sustained political argument was killed by television and radio. Rhetoric was reduced to the TV producer’s 10-second soundbite, the correspondent’s eight-second insert. The makers of speeches (even the ones capable of sustained argument) saw what was happening and promptly gave up. Why give your brain and soul to a serious, substantive statement when it will all be reduced to a snip of sound? They turned their speeches into soundbite after soundbite, applause line after applause line, and a great political tradition was traduced. But the Internet is changing all that. It is restoring rhetoric as a force. When Gov. Mitch Daniels made his big speech—a serious, substantive one—two weeks ago, Drudge had the transcript and video up in a few hours. Gov. Chris Christie’s big speech was quickly on the net in its entirety. All the CPAC speeches were up. TED conference speeches are all over the net, as are people making speeches at town-hall meetings. I get links to full speeches every day in my inbox and you probably do too.

And Noonan debunks the argument skeptics like Cass Sunstein and others have made about the atomization of the audience or fracturing of the public’s attention:

People in politics think it’s all Facebook and Twitter now, but it’s not. Not everything is fractured and in pieces, some things are becoming more whole. People hunger for serious, fleshed-out ideas about what is happening in our country. … A funny thing about politicians is that they’re all obsessed with “messaging” and “breaking through” and “getting people to listen.” They’re convinced that some special kind of cleverness is needed, that some magical communications formula exists and can be harnessed if only discovered. They should settle down, survey the technological field and get serious. They should give pertinent, truthful, sophisticated and sober-minded speeches. Everyone will listen. They’ll be all over the interwebs.

Amen, sister.

PFF today released the fifth installment in our ongoing series on “The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media.” This series of papers explores various tax and regulatory proposals that would have government play an expanded role in supporting the press, journalism, or other media content. In the latest essay, Berin Szoka, Ken Ferree, and I discuss proposals for direct subsidies for failing media outlets and out-of-work journalists.

We argue taxpayer support for failing outlets and unemployed journalists implicates significant First Amendment concerns. On the whole, subsidies can make “journalists and media operators more dependent upon the State; compromise press independence and diminish public trust in the free press; and result in government discrimination in the politically inescapable dilemma of determining eligibility for subsidies.” Such an agenda would also entail huge cost to taxpayers—initially about $35 billion per year according to advocates—and would represent “a massive wealth transfer from one class of speakers to another…”

We warn that calls for seemingly beneficent bailouts “to save” the media and journalism may actually be driven by those who have something more nefarious in mind: a “post-corporate” world shorn of media capitalists, and “such radicalism must be rejected if we hope to sustain a truly free press and uphold America’s proud tradition of keeping a high and tight wall of separation between Press and State.”

The ideas within these and other essays in the series will be worked into a major PFF filing in the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) proceeding on the “Future of Media” on May 7. The paper may be viewed online here and I’ve attached it down below in a Scribd reader.

Wrong Way to Reinvent Media Part 5 – Media Bailouts [Thierer Szoka Ferree – PFF] http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf

As I’ve mentioned here previously, PFF has been rolling out a new series of essays examining proposals that would have the government play a greater role in sustaining struggling media enterprises, “saving journalism,” or promoting more “public interest” content. We’re releasing these as we get ready to submit a big filing in the FCC’s “Future of Media” proceeding (deadline is May 7^th).  Here’s a podcast Berin Szoka and I did providing an overview of the series and what the FCC is doing.

In the first installment of the series, Berin and I critiqued an old idea that’s suddenly gained new currency: taxing media devices or distribution systems to fund media content. In the second installment, I took a hard look at proposals to impose fees on broadcast spectrum licenses and channeling the proceeds to a “public square channel” or some other type of public media or “public interest” content.

In our latest essay, “The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 3: Media Vouchers,” Berin and I consider whether it is possible to steer citizens toward so-called “hard news” and get them to financially support it through the use of “news vouchers” or “public interest vouchers”?  We argue that using the tax code to “nudge” people to support media — while less problematic than direct subsidies for the press — will likely raise serious issues regarding eligibility and be prone to political meddling.  Moreover, it’s unlikely the scheme will actually encourage people to direct more resources to hard news but instead just become a method of subsidizing other content they already consume.

I’ve attached the entire essay down below.

The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 3: Media Vouchers

by Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka*

PFF Progress on Point 17.4 [PDF]

Should the government play a greater role in the media sector in the name of sustaining struggling media enterprises, “saving journalism,” or promoting public media?  In this ongoing series of essays, we’ve been analyzing proposals that would have public policymakers use taxes, subsidies, or regulations to accomplish those objectives.

Part 1 of this series examined proposals to fund media content via a tax on consumer electronics, broadband service, or cell phone bills.^[1] Part 2 critiqued proposals to impose fees on broadcast spectrum licenses and channeling the proceeds to a “public square channel” or some other type of public media or “public interest” content.^[2] Other essays in this series will address proposals to tax private advertising revenues to support public media; expand postal subsidies; directly subsidize out-of-work journalists; and to prop up or bail out failing media entities.  A wrap-up essay will then focus on some potentially constructive policy reforms that could assist media enterprises without a massive infusion of state support or regulation of the press.

In this installment, we will consider whether it is possible to steer citizens toward so-called “hard news” (“serious” journalism)—and get them to financially support it—through the use of “news vouchers” or “public interest vouchers”?  We will argue that using the tax code to nudge people to support media—while less problematic than direct subsidies for the press—will likely raise serious issues regarding eligibility and be prone to political meddling.  Moreover, it’s unlikely the scheme will actually encourage people to direct more resources to hard news but instead just become a method of subsidizing other content they already consume.

Funding Hard News is Hard

Funding “hard news” has always been challenging.  Financing a team of dedicated local beat reporters, investigative journalists, national desks, foreign bureaus, and all the associated production facilities and support staff is an extremely expensive undertaking.[3] And, for all that trouble and expense, hard news rarely turns a healthy profit.  Often it has been considered a “loss leader” for media companies and has been cross-subsidized by other types of content or services.[4] This is why “bundling” has been such a popular model for many media operations such as newspapers, magazines, and cable television.  By tying news production to other types of content or services, media operators have been able to sustain the production of hard news, despite its general unprofitability on its own.

It’s worth recalling that a business model to sustain hard news production and dissemination on a mass scale really only developed mid-way through our Republic.  The early history of media in this country was characterized by the “partisan press” due to the heavy reliance on a patronage model and direct association with political parties and figures. This changed with the rise of large daily newspapers in the mid-1800s and then broadcast radio and television in the early half of the 20 ^th century.[5] Media providers were able to cross-subsidize news production independent of private or political patronage thanks to three things: (1) high-speed printing presses or broadcast facilities, (2) geographic-based market and pricing power, and (3) the widespread advertising base that was made possible by (1) and (2).

Over just the past 15-20 years, we’ve seen this traditional model upended.  Increased competition and technological/platform proliferation are placing an enormous strain on traditional media operations and business models. Schumpeterian “creative destruction” is at work in a serious, and for many, painful, way.

This is what is keeping the Federal Communications Commission,[6] the Federal Trade Commission,[7] some in Congress,[8] and many media worrywarts up at night: the fear that, as traditional financing mechanisms falter (advertising, classifieds, subscription revenues, etc.), many traditional news-gathering efforts and institutions will disappear.  And that’s leading to calls for government intervention or assistance of some sort to prop up struggling entities or directly subsidize the hard news that many of them have traditionally provided but may not be able to for much for longer.

Can Vouchers “Nudge” Citizens to Support Hard News?

One much-discussed proposal would create a “public interest voucher” or what Robert W. McChesney & John Nichols, authors of the new book The Death and Life of American Journalism, call a “Citizenship News Voucher.”^[9] This is a variant on the “artistic freedom voucher,” an idea first put forward in 2003 by economist Dean Baker as an alternative to copyright law as a means of incentivizing artistic creation.[10] The regulatory activist group Free Press, which McChesney founded, has also endorsed a news voucher scheme.[11]

The idea is fairly straightforward: give every American a voucher (McChesney and Nichols propose $200) to support the non-profit news entities of their choice by listing those entities on their tax return.  (If half of all adult Americans actually used their voucher, that would cost at least $20 billion/year.[12])  They assume this would be an efficient way of channeling money to hard news providers while avoiding the serious concerns that arise when government officials or agencies are the ones providing or steering the subsidies.  McChesney and Nichols go so far as to call their tax-and-redistribute proposal “a libertarian’s dream,” since “people can support whatever political viewpoint they prefer or do nothing at all.”[13]

McChesney and Nichols seem to be building on the approach popularized by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein in their highly influential 2008 book Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness.^[14] Based on behavioral economics studies, Thaler and Sunstein argue that both government and private actors must inevitably make decisions about “choice architecture” and that, by setting defaults, incentives and rules smartly, “choice architects” can and should improve private decision-making—but only where they can do so without blocking, fencing-off or significantly burdening choices.^[15] While their proposal might not qualify as a nudge in the strict sense defined by Thaler and Sunstein, the essential similarity between the concepts lies in trying to restructure the choices Americans make about media consumption by changing how they spend money on media—with the declared goal of “improving” both media consumption and the media itself (by “freeing it” of supposedly evil corporate influences).

Problems with the News Voucher Proposal

While nudges might be less objectionable in circumstances where it’s objectively evident what’s really “good” for us, the same can hardly be said for media consumption.  “Nudging” consumers towards better media choices isn’t based on clear science about, say, eating better or getting more exercise, but on highly subjective decisions about what kind of information consumption is really good for individuals, communities, and polities.  For policymakers to imagine that they can steer the public’s tastes or behavior in more desirable directions through law (including media subsidy schemes) is a profoundly elitist enterprise.^[16] In the case of “news vouchers,” the hope is that the public can be encouraged to at least channel some additional support to news-gathering activities and institutions.  The problem, however, is that some people just don’t much like being “nudged” by officials from afar and they’ll often take steps to evade such paternalism—however ostensibly “libertarian” it might be.  And it could lead to a host of unintended consequences, discussed further below.[17]

As a general matter, it simply isn’t possible to make consumers choose the “right” media in an age of information abundance.^[18] With so many voices competing for our attention, it’s impossible make people watch, listen, or read if they don’t want to.  That’s especially true with hard news, which has never netted major ratings.  As Ellen P. Goodman of the Rutgers-Camden School of Law has noted: “Given the proliferation of consumer filtering and choice, these kinds of interventions are of questionable efficacy.  Consumers equipped with digital selection and filtering tools are likely to avoid content they do not demand no matter what the regulatory efforts to force exposure.”[19] As Goodman rightly argues, “regulation cannot, in a liberal democracy, force viewers to consume media products they do not think they want in the name of the public interest.”[20] There’s no reason to believe this situation has ever been different or will ever change:  Writing in 1922, famed journalist Walter Lippmann noted that, “it is possible to make a rough estimate only of the amount of attention people give each day to informing themselves about public affairs,” but “the time each day is small when any of us is directly exposed to information from our unseen environment.”[21]

McChesney and Nichols’ effort to sell this scheme as “a libertarian’s dream” is a huge stretch.  There aren’t too many libertarians—or anyone else for that matter—who favor sending more money to the federal government only to win back the right to spend it on “qualifying media entities.”  And regarding their claim that “people can support whatever political viewpoint they prefer or do nothing at all,” well, people are already free to do whatever they want with their money when it comes to media products!  Why do we need to send money to Washington first and then have policymakers tell us how we can spend it?  This seems like a needless nudge—and one that would likely result in government bureaucracy taking a cut of the money or meddling in media markets.

Analogies to educational vouchers don’t work because we long ago decided to treat education as a public good and force everyone to pay for it.  “Voucherization” may make sense as a more efficient and “libertarian” way to fund such traditional public goods, when we absolutely have to force people to spend money on certain goods or services.  While McChesney and Nichols claim that the time has come for the government to fund media as such a public good, most people probably wouldn’t agree, since the private provision of media services has worked quite well for some time—being funded by a mix of advertising and subscription revenues for centuries.  They repeatedly claim that era is over (with little substantiation) but, in reality, it is their policies that would end private, for-profit media by taxing and regulating it to death.[22]

Second, what counts as a “qualifying media entity,” and how will the IRS make that call?  Can just any outlet that purports to gather and report “news” draw support from this new federal program?  McChesney and Nichols aren’t clear: They want the IRS to “determine eligibility—according to universal standards that err on the side of expanding rather than constraining the number of serious sources covering and commenting on issues of the day.”[23] They specify only that the entity must be a non-profit (though not necessarily a federally-recognized 501(c)(3)); not accept advertising; “do exclusively media content”; “cannot be part of a larger organization or have any non-media operations”; and that everything the medium produces must be made available immediately upon publication on the Internet and made available for free to all.”[24] But, anticipating objections about the dangers of political meddling, they also insist that “the government will not evaluate the content to see that the money is going toward journalism.  Our assumption is that these criteria will effectively produce that result, and if there is some slippage so be it.”[25] The only mechanism they can suggest for reducing fraud and ensuring “seriousness” is that, “for a medium to receive funds it would have to get commitments for at least $20,000 worth of vouchers” (100 full donations of the $200 voucher).[26]

But will policymakers really let citizens redeem their vouchers on The National Inquirer or People magazine?  How about the satirical The Onion or Jon Stewart’s Daily Show?  “This is a risk we are more than willing to take,” McChesney and Nichols say since they are “operating on a gut instinct that people will use their vouchers to fund serious media while reaching into their pockets to pay for copies of The National Inquirer at the supermarket checkout.”^[27] Of course, it’s always easier to take such risks when you are playing with other people’s money!  (Nearly half of all Americans don’t pay any Federal income taxes,[28] so their $200 news voucher is definitely coming out of someone else’s tax bill.)

But it’s naïve to believe this idea is going to change the face of journalism in any serious way.  Most people will spend their vouchers on whatever media outlets and content they are currently consuming, which probably isn’t what McChesney and Nichols (or most policymakers) would prefer.  “The program may not develop exactly the type of journalism our greatest thinkers believe is necessary,” McChesney and Nichols admit.[29] But the real question is: What sort of demands will policymakers begin making if the voucher program ends up channeling money into media entities that don’t measure up to their standards or desires?  Qualification criteria would inevitably become the tool of political meddling.

The Inevitable Strings & the Political/Constitutional Paradox

This raises a fourth concern: How long will it be before government starts attaching more strings to the vouchers?  To borrow a recent headline from The Wall Street Journal, how long will it be before the “Economic Policy ‘Nudge’ Gives Way to a Shove?”^[30] Although, in theory, the news voucher idea lets consumers figure out how to steer the funds, it’s unlikely much of those funds would go toward hard news, civic-minded or “high brow” content if consumers were actually free to choose.  How do we know this?  Because we already know what consumers choose today—and those “poor” choices are part of the supposed “problem” to be solved by media vouchers.  Once people start redirecting taxpayer dollars to content that the elites and policymakers don’t like, the nudge will become a shove and more interventions will follow in the form of “voucher guidance and compliance” hearings, rules, etc.

But the pressure for strings won’t just come from the top down because, as Thomas Jefferson famously put it in the 1786 Virginia Act for Establishing Religious Freedom, “to compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves, is sinful and tyrannical.”[31] That is, we naturally—and rightly—resent subsidizing speech that is antithetical to our own values.  McChesney and Nichols dismiss this natural (presumably bourgeois?) indignation by saying, “people will have to accept that some of the vouchers are going to go to media that they detest.”^[32] In one sense, they are dead wrong: People won’t just accept that.  They may accept subtle, indirect subsidies, but the more clear it becomes that they are being forced to pay for media they detest—and that could scarcely be more clear than with a refundable tax credit “voucher”—they will protest and demand that certain viewpoints, or at least kinds of content, be deemed out of bounds.

But in another sense, McChesney and Nichols are probably correct: For such a scheme to work, it probably can’t come with any content strings, because this is probably what the First Amendment would require.  Yet they don’t actually explain that point, stopping only to say that we all just have to become more tolerant of “dissent”— i.e., subsidize those who disagree with us!  In this sense, news vouchers therefore would likely fall prey to a common paradox faced by proposals for the government to subsidize speech: What’s politically feasible is unconstitutional and what’s constitutional is politically impossible.  Specifically, the kinds of eligibility restrictions necessary to push a voucher scheme through Congress would probably cause the courts to strike down the whole scheme.  Even if the courts were willing to strike down only the eligibility provisions as “severable” from the rest of the scheme, the whole scheme would likely die in the very next federal budget if the courts require the funding of “offensive” or “frivolous” content.  Understanding why this is the case requires a brief overview of key First Amendment case law.

In general, “when the Government appropriates public funds to establish a program it is entitled to define the limits of that program.”^[33] Thus, in its 1991 Rust v. Sullivan decision, the Supreme Court upheld a law forbidding federal funding for family planning services to go to abortion counseling.^[34] But the Supreme Court later clarified that such viewpoint discrimination is permissible only “[w]hen the government disburses public funds to private entities to convey a governmental message.”^[35] By contrast, where subsidies are “designed to facilitate private speech,” government may not discriminate against viewpoints it does not like.^[36] Thus, the government may not fund legal services but bar funding for defendants trying to amend or otherwise challenge existing welfare law.^[37]

The First Amendment prohibits not only such viewpoint discrimination but content discrimination as well.  In 2003, the Supreme Court held that the University of Virginia could not exclude religious groups from drawing on the University’s Student Activity Fund, even though the Fund’s eligibility requirements did not discriminate against any particular religion.^[38] Yet in 1995, the Court had upheld another content restriction: a requirement that the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) “take into consideration general standards of decency and respect for the diverse beliefs and values of the American public” when making grants to “help create and sustain not only a climate encouraging freedom of thought, imagination, and inquiry but also the material conditions facilitating the release of . . . creative talent.”^[39] The Court concluded, in an 8-1 majority, that the “’decency and respect’ criteria do not silence speakers by expressly threaten[ing] censorship of ideas.”^[40] This decision rested largely on the fact that “Educational programs are central to the NEA’s mission” and “it is well established that ‘decency’ is a permissible factor where ‘educational suitability’ motivates its consideration.”^[41] The Court left the door open to future First Amendment challenges to the statute “as applied,” such as “[i]f the NEA were to leverage its power to award subsidies on the basis of subjective criteria into a penalty on disfavored viewpoints.”^[42]

What explains these starkly different outcomes is that the Court decided that the University of Virginia’s Student Activity Fund constituted a “limited public forum”^[43] intended to “encourage a diversity of views from private speakers,” but the NEA did not.  The University had funded all speech except “religious editorial viewpoints” from its Student Activities Fund, into which every student paid a $14 mandatory fee each semester.  By contrast, the NEA made only a limited number of grants through a “competitive process” according to principles of inherently content-based principles of “excellence” as well as “geographic, ethnic, and esthetic diversity.”  Thus, it was permissible, in principle, for the NEA to exclude “indecent” content.

The Supreme Court’s decision in U.S. v. American Library Association, Inc. (2003) also suggests that content restrictions regarding Citizen News Vouchers would be struck down.  The Court held that the First Amendment did not bar Congress from requiring in the Children’s Internet Protection Act (CIPA) that “a public library may not receive federal assistance to provide Internet access unless it installs software to block images that constitute obscenity or child pornography, and to prevent minors from obtaining access to material that is harmful to them.”^[44] Critically, the Court held that libraries were not public fora:

A public library does not acquire Internet terminals in order to create a public forum for Web publishers to express themselves, any more than it collects books in order to provide a public forum for the authors of books to speak. It provides Internet access, not to “encourage a diversity of views from private speakers” … but for the same reasons it offers other library resources: to facilitate research, learning, and recreational pursuits by furnishing materials of requisite and appropriate quality.^[45]

But what is the purpose of the news voucher scheme if not to “encourage a diversity of views from private speakers?”  Indeed, this is precisely how McChesney and Nichols attempt to sell their scheme—as a “libertarian’s dream.”  But, paradoxically, the more “libertarian” and broader subsidies for speech are, the more likely the political/constitutional paradox mentioned above is to arise.

The Citizenship News Voucher Fund proposed by McChesney and Nichols strongly resembles the University of Virginia’s Student Activity Fund:  In both cases, consumers are taxed to finance a fund that is, in theory, available to any entity that meets certain basic eligibility criteria.  No attempt is made in either case to ensure the quality of content or activities being funded.  Indeed, McChesney and Nichols explicitly reject such oversight of voucher spending and insist that taxpayers must accept that much of the fund will simply be wasted on media that falls well short of the “hard” or “serious” news they’re trying to save.  (By contrast, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, whose budget McChesney and Nichols propose increasing nine-fold to fund more public media,[46] more closely resembles the NEA as a selective grant-maker.)

Also distinguishing the Court’s decision upholding CIPA’s content-based restrictions is the fact that both Justice Kennedy in his concurrence and Justice Souter in his dissent (joined by Justice Ginsburg) agreed that First Amendment problems could be solved to the extent that adults could opt-out of filtering.^[47] But with news vouchers, the government either restricts the eligibility of certain publications to receive vouchers depending on their eligibility or it does not.

Furthermore, unlike with CIPA or the NEA, the Citizenship News Voucher wouldn’t be related to educational settings, so it’s not even clear a “decency” requirement like that Congress imposed on the NEA’s grant-making could be imposed on voucher eligibility.[48] Magazines like Playboy offer a mix of pornography and thoughtful commentary on the news, proving that there is a market for such combination of journalism and controversial entertainment and photography.  Going even further, “Naked News” is a daily show whose buxom anchors strip while delivering the news.^[49] Why wouldn’t millions of Americans, especially younger men, use their voucher for such content?  Who’s going to draw the line between porn-spiced news and “serious” content?

The typical taxpayer will be outraged by having to subsidize some media outlet, whether because of its objectionable viewpoint or indecent or unserious content.  He will fiercely resist being compelled “to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors,” as Jefferson put it.  Good luck getting even the most “tolerant” gay voters, for example, to accept being taxed to pay for fundamentalist Christian perspectives on the news—or vice versa!  McChesney and Nichols don’t actually say anything about the First Amendment, but do recognize that, for their program to be accepted, the American people will have to swallow the “hard pill” of accepting that “some of the vouchers are going to go to media that they detest” and “embrace dissent in reality and not just rhetoric.”^[50] They seem to think this “hard pill” is a benefit of their scheme because it would teach us all to be more tolerant of “dissent.”  That’s easy for an endowed professor at a taxpayer-funded university and avowed neo-Marxist like Robert McChesney to say, but it’s not likely to fly with most Americans.  Disputes over “qualifying entity” eligibility will only add new rancor to the Culture Wars (over sex, abortion, religion, politics, etc.).

Realistically, it would likely take years for a news voucher bill to make its way through Congress, and if it ever did pass, it would likely be tied up in the courts for years, requiring at least one visit to the Supreme Court.  If any content strings are included, the law could well lead to the same kind of ordeal as with the 1998 Child Online Protection Act, which spent nearly 9 years in litigation and went up to the Supreme Court twice.^[51] Yet somehow McChesney and Nichols imagine their proposal will save media today at this critical moment of technological transition.

Down with Copyright, Down with Capitalism?

There’s another problematic caveat to the McChesney-Nichols variant of the news voucher idea: They would disallow any copyright protection or advertising support for an entity who receives voucher funds.  That’s an effort by the authors to steer even more media activity away from the commercial sphere and toward what might be thought of as a “public option” for the press—what McChesney and Nichols euphemistically (and repeatedly) call “post-corporate” media.

Let’s not forget that McChesney has argued (during an interview on the Canadian-based “Socialist Project”) that “the ultimate goal is to get rid of the media capitalists,” and that, “unless you make significant changes in the media, it will be vastly more difficult to have a revolution.”  So, it’s important to keep his true intentions in mind when he starts claiming to have found “a libertarian’s dream” of a solution to what ails America’s media sector.^[52] It sounds more like a central planner’s dream.  The true “libertarian’s dream” would be to leave Americans free to make their own choices about media without additional meddling from the State, and to look to innovation to fund media through a combination of advertising, sponsorship, subscriptions and micropayments.

Related PFF Publications

• The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 2: Broadcast Spectrum Taxes to Subsidize Public Media , Adam Thierer, Progress on Point 17.2, March 2010.
• The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 1: Taxes on Consumer Electronics, Mobile Phones & Broadband, Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, PFF Progress on Point 17.1, March 2010.
• Testimony at FCC’s Hearing on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era”, Adam Thierer, March 2010.
• Public Option for Press Should Get the Red Pen, Adam Thierer, The Daily Caller, Jan. 2010.
• Chairman Leibowitz’s Disconnect on Privacy Regulation & the Future of News, Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, Progress Snapshot 6.1, Jan. 13, 2010.
• Socializing Media in Order to Save It, Adam Thierer, City Journal, March 2009.
• A Manifesto for Media Freedom, Adam Thierer and Brian Anderson, 2008.
• Media Ownership Proceedings, W. Kenneth Ferree, Testimony before the Federal Communications Commission, Nov. 3, 2009.
• Media Myths: Making Sense of the Debate over Media Ownership, Adam Thierer, June 2005.

[1] Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 1: Taxes on Consumer Electronics, Mobile Phones & Broadband, PFF Progress on Point 17.1, March 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/2010/pop17.1-the_wrong_way_to_reinvent_media.pdf.

[2] Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 2: Broadcast Spectrum Taxes to Subsidize Public Media, Progress on Point 17.2, March 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/2010/pop17.2-wrong_way_part_2.pdf

[3] “Until now, the iron core of news has been somewhat sheltered by an economic model that was able to provide extra resources beyond what readers—and advertisers—would financially support. This kind of news is expensive to produce, especially investigative reporting.” Alex S. Jones, Losing the News: The Future of the News that Feeds Democracy (2009) at 4.

[4] “For a long time, publishers have used news as a ‘loss leader,’ a product sold below costs to create other sales.” The Media Consortium, The Big Thaw: Charting a New Future for Journalism, July 2009, at 36, www.themediaconsortium.org/thebigthaw.

[5] James T. Hamilton notes that, “nonpartisan reporting emerged as a commercial product in American newspaper markets in the 1870s.  Before that time, many papers openly proclaimed association with a particular political party.”  James T. Hamilton, All the News That’s Fit to Sell (2004), at 3.

[6] The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently kicked off a new “Future of Media” effort with a workshop on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era.” See Federal Communications Commission, FCC Launches Examination of the Future of Media and Information Needs of Communities in a Digital Age, FCC Public Notice, GN Docket No. 10-25, Jan. 21, 2010, at 2, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DA-10-100A1.pdf

[7] The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has hosted two workshops asking “How Will Journalism Survive the Internet Age?” www.ftc.gov/opp/workshops/news/index.shtml

[8] Both the Senate and House of Representatives have held hearings about “the future of journalism,” and Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD) recently introduced the “Newspaper Revitalization Act,” which would allow newspapers to become nonprofit organizations in an effort to help them stay afloat—but also curtail their political editorializing.  See http://cardin.senate.gov/news/record.cfm?id=310392.

[9] Robert W. McChesney & John Nichols, The Death and Life of American Journalism (2010) at 201-206. McChesney discussed this idea in more detail when he spoke at the recent FTC event on saving journalism.  Robert W. McChesney, Rejuvenating American Journalism: Some Tentative Policy Proposals, Presentation to FTC Workshop on Journalism, March 10, 2010, www.ftc.gov/opp/workshops/news/mar9/docs/mcchesney.pdf

[10] Dean Baker, The Artistic Freedom Voucher: An Internet Age Alternative to Copyrights, Nov. 5, 2003, www.cepr.net/documents/publications/ip_2003_11.pdf.

[11] Free Press, Saving the News: Toward a National Journalism Strategy, May 2009, at 36, www.freepress.net/files/saving_the_news.pdf.

[12] McChesney & Nichols, supra note 9 at 205.

[13] Id. at 204.

[14] Richard H. Thaler & Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (2008).

[15] They define choice architecture as follows:  “A structure designed by a choice architect(s) to improve the quality of decisions made by homo sapiens. Often invisible, choice architecture is the specific user-friendly shape of an organization’s policy or physical building when homo sapiens come into contact with it. Examples of choice architecture include a voter ballot, a procedure for handling well-meaning people who forget a deadline, or a skyscraper.”  Nudge Glossary of Terms, www.nudges.org/glossary.cfm.

[16] See Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, What Unites Advocates of Speech Controls & Privacy Regulation?, Progress on Point 16.19, Aug. 11, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/2009/pop16.19-unites-speech-and-privacy-reg-advocates.pdf.

[17] As Glen Whitman notes in challenging such “nudging”: “the new paternalism carries a serious risk of expansion. Following its policy recommendations places us on a slippery slope from soft paternalism to hard. This would be true even if policymakers — including legislators, judges, bureaucrats, and voters — were completely rational. But the danger is especially great if policymakers exhibit the same cognitive biases attributed to the people they’re trying to help.”  Glen Whitman, The Rise of the New Paternalism, Cato Unbound, April 5, 2010, www.cato-unbound.org/2010/04/05/glen-whitman/the-rise-of-the-new-paternalism.

[18] Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Why Expansion of the FCC’s Public Interest Regulatory Regime is Unwise, Unneeded, Unconstitutional, and Unenforceable, Testimony Before the Federal Communications Commission Hearing on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era,” March 4, 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/testimony/2010/2010-03-04-Thierer_Remarks_at_FCC_Hearing.pdf.

[19] Ellen P. Goodman, “Proactive Media Policy in an Age of Content Abundance,” in Philip M. Napoli, ed., Media Diversity and Localism: Meaning and Metrics (2007) at 370, 374.

[20] Id.

[21] Walter Lippmann, Public Opinion (1922), at 53, 57.

[22] For example, among other things, McChesney and Nichols call for a 5% tax on consumer electronics, a 3% tax on monthly ISP & cell phone bills, a 2% sales tax on advertising, and a 7% tax on broadcasters.  See McChesney & Nichols, supra note 9 at 209-11.

[23] Id. at 202.

[24] Id.

[25] Id.

[26] Id.

[27] Id. at 205.

[28] http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/UploadedPDF/1001289_who_pays.pdf

[29] McChesney & Nichols, supra note 9 at 205.

[30] Jonathan Weisman, Economic Policy ‘Nudge’ Gives Way to a Shove, Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704869304575103980232739138.html.

[31] http://religiousfreedom.lib.virginia.edu/sacred/vaact.html

[32] McChesney & Nichols, supra note 9 at 205.

[33] Rust v. Sullivan, 500 U.S. 173, 194 (1991).

[34] Id. (emphasis added).

[35] Rosenberger v. Rector and Visitors of Univ. of Va., 515 U.S. 819, 833 (1995) (emphasis added).

[36] Legal Services Corp. v. Velazquez, 531 US 533, 542 (2001).  The Court in Rosenberger noted:

even in the provision of subsidies, the Government may not “ai[m] at the suppression of dangerous ideas,” Regan v. Taxation with Representation of Wash., 461 U.S. 540, 550 (1983), and if a subsidy were “manipulated” to have a “coercive effect,” then relief could be appropriate. See Arkansas Writers’ Project, Inc. v. Ragland, 481 U.S. 221, 237 (1987) (Scalia, J., dissenting); see also Leathers v. Medlock, 499 U.S. 439, 447 (1991) (“[D]ifferential taxation of First Amendment speakers is constitutionally suspect when it threatens to suppress the expression of particular ideas or viewpoints”). In addition…, a more pressing constitutional question would arise if Government funding resulted in the imposition of a disproportionate burden calculated to drive “certain ideas or viewpoints from the marketplace.” Simon & Schuster, Inc. v. Members of N. Y. State Crime Victims Bd., 502 U.S. 105, 116 (1991).

Id. at 587.

[37] 531 U.S. at 542.

[38] Rosenberger v. Rector and Visitors of Univ. of Va., 515 U.S. 819, 833 (1995).  The University’s rule prohibited funding of any group that “primarily promotes or manifests a particular belie[f] in or about a deity or an ultimate reality.”

[39] National Endowment for the Arts v. Finley, 524 U.S. 569, 574 (1998).

[40] 524 U.S. at 583 (quoting R. A. V. v. St. Paul, 505 U.S. 377 (1992) (internal quotations omitted).

[41] Id. at 584 (citing  Board of Ed., Island Trees Union Free School Dist. No. 26 v. Pico, 457 U.S. 853, 871 (1982); see also Bethel School Dist. No. 403 v. Fraser, 478 U.S. 675, 683 (1986)).

[42] Id. at 587.

[43] 515 U.S. 819 (1995).

[44] U.S. v. American Library Association, Inc., 539 U.S. 194 (2003).  See generally Robert Corn-Revere, United States v. American Library Association: A Missed Opportunity for the Supreme Court to Clarify Application of First Amendment Law to Publicly Funded Expressive Institutions, Cato Supreme Court Rev. 105, 2003, www.cato.org/pubs/scr2003/publiclyfunded.pdf.

[45] Id. at 207 (quoting Rosenberger, 515 U.S. at 834).

[46] McChesney & Nichols, supra note 9 at 192, 199.

[47] “If, on the request of an adult user, a librarian will unblock filtered material or disable the Internet software filter without significant delay, there is little to this case.” American Library Association, 539 U.S. at 214 (Kennedy, J. concurring).  Justice Souter agreed that it would ‘‘tak[e] the curse off the statute for all practical purposes’’ if adult patrons could obtain an unblocked Internet terminal ‘‘simply for the asking,’’ but doubted this would actually happen in practice.  Id. at 232.

[48] Cf. Rosenberger, 515 U.S. at 584 (“Educational programs are central to the NEA’s mission.… And it is well established that ‘decency’ is a permissible factor where ‘educational suitability’ motivates its consideration.”).

[49] See www.nakednews.com.

[50] Id. at 205.

[51] See Adam Thierer, Closing the Book on COPA?, Technology Liberation Front, Jan. 21, 2009, http://techliberation.com/2009/01/21/closing-the-book-on-copa/.

[52] Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Free Press, Robert McChesney & the “Struggle” for Media, Aug. 10, 2009, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2009/08/free_press_robert_mcchesney_the_struggle_for_media.html

Wrong Way to Reinvent Media Part 3 – Media Vouchers [Thierer & Szoka – PFF] http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf

As mentioned last week, in a new series of essays, PFF scholars will be examining proposals that would have the government play a greater role in sustaining struggling media enterprises, “saving journalism,” or promoting more “public interest” content. With many traditional media operators struggling, and questions being raised about how journalism in particular will be supported in the future, Washington policymakers are currently considering what role government can and should play in helping media providers reinvent themselves in the face of tumultuous technological change wrought by the Digital Revolution. We will be releasing 6 or 7 essays on this topic leading up to our big filing in the FCC’s “Future of Media” proceeding (deadline is May 7^th).  And here’s a podcast Berin Szoka and I did providing an overview of the series.

In the first installment of the series, Berin and I critiqued an old idea that’s suddenly gained new currency: taxing media devices or distribution systems to fund media content. In the second installment, “The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 2: Broadcast Spectrum Taxes to Subsidize Public Media,” I discuss proposals to impose a tax on broadcast spectrum licenses to funnel money to public media projects or other “public interest” content or objectives. Such a tax would be fundamentally unfair to broadcasters, who are struggling for their very survival in the midst of unprecedented marketplace turmoil.  Moreover, such a tax is unnecessary in light of the many other sources of “public interest” programming available today. Finally, even if the government creates or subsidizes wonderful, civic- and culturally-enriching content, there’s no way to force people to consume it.  Nor should government force such media choices upon the public. There’s no good reason for government to be socially-engineering media choices through taxes.

I’ve attached the entire essay down below.

The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 2: Broadcast Spectrum Taxes to Subsidize Public Media

PFF Progress on Point 17.2 [PDF]

by Adam Thierer*

In an ongoing series of essays, we‘re discussing proposals to have the government play a greater role in the media sector in the name of sustaining struggling enterprises or “saving journalism.”  Washington policymakers are currently considering what, if any, role government can and should play in assisting media operators, supporting journalism, or expanding public media.  For example, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently kicked off a new “Future of Media” effort with a workshop on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era.” Likewise, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has hosted two workshops on “How Will Journalism Survive the Internet Age?”  Meanwhile, the Senate has already held hearings about “the future of journalism,” and Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD) recently introduced the “Newspaper Revitalization Act,” which would allow newspapers to become nonprofit organizations in an effort to help them stay afloat—but also curtail their political editorializing.

Part 1 of this series examined proposals to fund media content via a tax on consumer electronics, broadband service, or cell phone bills.^[1] Other essays will address proposals to tax private advertising revenues to support public media; directly subsidize out-of-work journalists; expand postal subsidies; and to prop up or bail out failing media entities.  A wrap-up essay will then focus on some potentially constructive policy reforms that could assist media enterprises without a massive infusion of state support or regulation of the press.

This essay will discuss proposals to impose a tax on broadcast spectrum licenses to funnel money to public media projects or other “public interest” content or objectives.^[2] Such a tax would be fundamentally unfair to broadcasters, who are struggling for their very survival in the midst of unprecedented marketplace turmoil.  Moreover, such a tax is unnecessary in light of the many other sources of “public interest” programming available today. Finally, even if the government creates or subsidizes wonderful, civic- and culturally-enriching content, there’s no way to force people to consume it.  Nor should government force such media choices upon the public. There’s no good reason for government to be socially-engineering media choices through taxes.

Why the “Public Interest” Regulatory Regime Can’t Continue

There’s always been a bit of mythology surrounding so-called “public interest” regulation of broadcasting in America.^[3] Those who advocate expansive regulatory obligations for licensed radio and television operators typically claim they’re directing the content or character of broadcasting toward a nobler end—a sort of noblesse oblige for the Information Age.  At times, their rhetoric takes on a fairy-tale quality as lawmakers and regulatory advocates speak of “the public interest” in reverential and fantastic terms, all the while deftly evading any attempt to define the term.  Indeed, while public interest regulation has been considered the cornerstone of communications and media policy since the 1930s, at no time during these seven decades has the term been adequately defined.[4]

Former FCC Commissioner Glen Robinson has argued that the public interest standard “is vague to the point of vacuousness, providing neither guidance nor constraint on the agency’s action.”^[5] And Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase argued 50 years ago that “The phrase… lacks any definite meaning.  Furthermore, the many inconsistencies in commission decisions have made it impossible for the phrase to acquire a definite meaning in the process of regulation.”^[6]

And that is still true today.  Simply put, the public interest standard is not really a “standard” at all since it has no fixed meaning; the definition of the phrase has shifted with the political winds to suit the whims of those in power at any given time.[7] Nonetheless, the public interest regulatory regime remains with us and continues to apply to licensed broadcast radio and television operators.

Regardless of the rationale used to advance public interest regulation—public spectrum ownership, licensing, scarcity,^[8] pervasiveness,^[9] or “public enlightenment”—it is hard to explain why we have singled out broadcasters for unique regulatory obligations while operators of other media platforms have been given a free pass.  Such regulatory asymmetry is more difficult to justify today in light of rising competition for many new platforms and players.^[10] And it is difficult to believe that Congress or the FCC could concoct a constitutionally-defensible rationale for extending “public interest” regulation to new media platforms.^[11] Indeed, efforts to do so for both old (newspapers, print) and new (Internet, video games) media have failed when tested in the courts.  And, practically speaking, even if expansion of the old regime was desirable, it would be exceedingly difficult to do so in light of the sheer scale and volume of new media that would need to be covered.^[12]

Spending Money Instead of Imposing Mandates?

The combination of these factors has forced many traditional public interest regulatory advocates to reconsider the wisdom—or at least the practicality—of the old broadcasting regime.  One alternative that has received increasing attention in recent years would see broadcasters largely relieved of their public interest obligations and charged instead an annual fee for their use of the airwaves.  The proceeds from such a spectrum fee or tax would then be used to subsidize a variety of programs or content.  For example:

• Henry Geller, a former FCC general counsel, first advocated such a spectrum fee scheme as a method of financing more public broadcasting programming.^[13]
• Likewise, Charles Firestone, executive director of the Aspen Institute’s Communications and Society Program, has argued that the scheme could fund “educational programs for children, free political spots on an equal opportunities basis, public service announcements, or other programming that the Government wants.”[14]
• American Enterprise Institute scholar Norman Ornstein has advocated that the money be spent on a “Public Square” channel to “focus on local and national politics, policy issues, debates, campaigns, and other vital issues.”^[15]
• Elsewhere, along with Paul Taylor, Ornstein has said the money raised from such fees might be spent to ensure greater election coverage or to subsidize political advertising.^[16]
• Leonard Downie, Jr., Vice President at Large of The Washington Post, and Michael Schudson, a Professor at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, have advocated the creation of a “Fund for Local News” that “would make grants for advances in local news reporting and innovative ways to support it.”^[17] The Fund would make grants to news organizations through “Local News Fund Councils” and would be financed by “fees paid by radio and television licensees, or proceeds from auctions of telecommunications spectrum, or new fees imposed on Internet service providers.”^[18]
• Most recently, Robert W. McChesney and John Nichols, authors of the new book The Death and Life of American Journalism, have proposed a 7% tax on broadcasters, which they estimate would generate $3-6 billion annually.  They would use it to fund some combination of all of the above items and far more, including welfare for journalists.^[19]

A Spectrum Tax as a Regulatory Reparations Policy

We might think of spectrum tax proposals as a sort of reparations policy for the regulatory sins of the past.  That is, broadcast spectrum fees are typically pitched as a way to “repay the public” for use of the spectrum that broadcasters obtained originally at no charge.  As Charles Firestone explains, in theory, the spectrum fee proposal:

provides a specific dollar value to the trade-off that has traditionally marked the public trusteeship theory of broadcast regulation. That is, for the initial grant and/or exclusive use of a valuable frequency, protected against interference or encroachment by governmental enforcement mechanisms, the broadcaster serves the needs and interests of the local audience service area.[20]

But like the “public interest” standard itself, spectrum taxes are also an idea whose time has passed.^[21] Broadcast spectrum fees make little sense today, even if the notion might have made some sense two or three decades ago as a method of monetizing public interest obligations.

First, using spectrum fees as a reparations policy today fails to “punish” those who originally got their spectrum free-of-charge.  The vast majority of broadcast spectrum licenses have traded hands in the secondary market for lucrative sums.  In many cases, those television and radio properties have traded hands numerous times.  Thus, the current spectrum-holders who would be taxed are generally not the beneficiaries of any “windfall,” but have instead paid competitive market prices for the spectrum they use that should be roughly commensurate with the economic value of that spectrum (at least for the limited range of uses allowed by the FCC).

Second, although broadcasting remains an important medium, its once-supreme relevance has eroded significantly over the past three decades.  Even Norm Ornstein, a defender of broadcast spectrum fees, has noted that “Over-the-air broadcasting is a dinosaur.  It’s not going to last very long.”^[22] Although that might be hyperbole, it’s certainly true that whatever weight the broadcast medium might have had in the past, that is now ancient history.

For most of the past century, broadcasting was a fairly stable industry that did not witness business model-shattering types of changes.  As its very name implies, broadcasting attracted broad audiences.  Consequently, returns were stable, even substantial at times.  Today, however, stability has given way to volatility.  The entire media marketplace is in a state of seemingly constant upheaval.  Long-standing industry players are shedding assets or even disappearing as underdogs rapidly enter the sector and become big dogs overnight.  This has become a textbook example of Schumpeterian “creative destruction” in action.^[23]

Consider what this has meant for broadcasters in terms of audience share and advertising revenues.  Start with broadcast television.  The television audience has grown increasingly fragmented since the 1950s.  The top shows on TV during that era ( e.g., “I Love Lucy”) garnered 40-50% of the viewing audience.  By the 1970s, the top broadcast TV shows (e.g., “All in the Family”) were pulling in roughly 30% of the audience.  Today, however, with so many other media options vying for our increasingly scarce attention, the top shows on television (e.g., “American Idol”) are lucky to break 15% and most shows rarely break single digits.

The “problem” is growing competition for eyeballs.  Broadcasters face a growing array of rivals: cable and satellite multi-channel distributors; DVDs and Netflix; VOD and online video; video game platforms; and much more.  According to Nielsen Media Research, the “Big 3” networks of the past (ABC, CBS, NBC), which held 90% of the primetime market in 1980, control only 30% share today.  In terms of total day shares, cable blew past broadcast television at the turn of the century and never looked back.  The advertising situation is equally bleak for television broadcasters.  According to McCann Erickson Worldwide, broadcast television’s overall share of media advertising revenues dipped below 20% back in 1990 and continues to fall steadily, standing at approximately 15% today.

Unsurprisingly, the financial outlook for the broadcast TV sector is bleak.  “Almost all the indicators for local TV are pointing down,” notes the Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism in its annual State of the News Media report.  It continues:

Revenue, too, was in a free fall.  Ad revenue is always lower in a year without federal elections or the Olympics, but the drop in 2009 was especially severe even with the unexpected bounty of political spending on health care legislation.  Revenues were estimated to have fallen by 22% from the year before.  The last two non-election years, by contrast, recorded much smaller declines: 5% in 2005 and 6% in 2007.  Looking ahead, most market analysts project revenues to grow only slightly, in the 3%-to-5% range in 2010, but that is hardly taken as good news given that it is a year that will include both the off-year elections and winter Olympic games.^[24]

In light of the recent turmoil, some major network television executives are now thinking about doing what was unthinkable just a decade ago: casting off their local broadcast affiliates and repurposing their content on alternative media platforms ( e.g., cable, satellite, Internet). For example, in early 2009, CBS Corp. President and CEO Les Moonves told an investor conference that moving all CBS network programming to cable and satellite platforms would be “a very interesting proposition.”^[25] If television networks start following their audience in the continuing mass exodus to alternative distribution platforms, how would local broadcast affiliates pay for a new federal spectrum fee? Even if that scenario does not develop, local television broadcasters face an uncertain future, and likely declining revenues for some time to come.

The situation for broadcast radio operators is even grimmer.  The competition for our ears has never been more intense with satellite radio, non-commercial radio, iPods and MP3 players, online radio, downloadable music, podcasting, etc. with terrestrial broadcasters for audience share.  As a result, radio operators have seen their audiences dwindle and their revenues nose-dive. According to Arbitron, time spent listening to radio has dropped for every age demographic they’ve measured for the past decade.  And BIA Financial Network notes that while the radio revenue growth rate ran between 7% and 14% during the late 1990s, the industry hasn’t seen growth above 3% since 2002 and in recent years growth has rarely broken 1%.  Furthermore, the Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism reports that:^[26]

• Total radio revenue was down 18% in 2009 from 2008, according to the Radio Advertising Bureau.
• Local and national radio advertising—the biggest sources of revenue for radio—were both down and projected to continue falling at least through 2011.  There was growth in online advertising, but not enough to make up for the loss of on-air advertising.
• National and local advertising fell by 20% and 19% respectively in 2009 compared to 2008.  Local advertising has always been radio’s lifeblood.
• Online advertising revenue saw a 13% increase in 2009, but represented only 3% of industry advertising revenue and was not enough to offset the losses in other categories.
• Off-air revenues, such as billboards and concert sponsorships, fell 9% in 2009 compared to 2008, to 1.3 billion.  While these revenues currently make up only a small part of radio revenue, the continued decline of national and local advertising may add to their importance.

Again, can struggling radio broadcasters absorb the added burden of a new national spectrum tax in light of their precarious situation? Indeed, it’s numbers like these that usually leads intervention-minded analysts to advocate subsidies, not taxes, for some struggling media entities!

Where Would the Money Go?

Questions also surround the pool of funds that would be amassed through the creation of a broadcast spectrum fee.  Given the declining fortunes of the broadcast industry, it seems unlikely the fee would generate as much revenue as some proponents might imagine. Let’s assume, however, that the spectrum levy netted respectable sums.  How would those funds be used?

America’s recent experience with spectrum auction proceeds suggests that Congress would first look to use a spectrum fee to pay for federal spending priorities or pay off past budget deficits instead of channeling those funds to new “public square” or “public interest” initiatives.  But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume Congress honored a pledge to use the broadcast fee only for its intended purpose.  What exactly counts as a “public square” or “public interest” initiative, and who would be in charge of it?

Some proponents of a spectrum fee seem to long for a world in which everything looks or sounds like a combination of National Public Radio, the Public Broadcasting Service, and cable “public access” channels.  But regardless of the quality of such networks or the programming on them, the viewing and listening public has shown a clear desire for programming of a very different nature.  While critics might lament what they regard as the “low-brow” entertainment or supposedly lower-quality news seen or heard on some commercial networks or stations, there is no denying that citizens tune in to commercial programs in very large numbers.  Whether regulatory advocates care to admit it, supply and demand are at work in America’s media marketplace and citizens vote with their eyes and ears all the time.  Media scholar Ben Compaine, co-author of Who Owns the Media?, focuses on the real issue here, choice:

If large segments of the public choose to watch, read, or listen to content from a relatively small number of media companies, that should not distract policy makers from the key word there: choose. … It may indeed be that at any given moment 80 percent of the audience is viewing or reading or listening to something from the 10 largest media players.  But that does not mean it is the same 80 percent all the time, or that it is cause for concern.^[27]

Commenting on efforts to make the modern media landscape look more like PBS or NPR, Compaine notes: “Content might well be different.  But it wouldn’t necessarily be better.… This might work only in a … world of enforced equality, where no democracy of content was allowed, where the voice of the audience was not heard.”^[28] He notes that PBS is instructive in this regard since, even in the days when it only had three primary rivals, it could rarely get the attention of more than 2% of the total TV audience.  And as television journalist Jeff Greenfield has noted, “[W]hen you no longer need the skills of a safecracker to find PBS in most markets, you have to realize that the reason people aren’t watching is that they don’t want to.”^[29]

Simply put, in a world of unlimited options and freedom of media choice, there’s just no way to force the audience to tune in.^[30] Absent truly repressive measures to limit choice or alter consumer media consumption patterns, it will be impossible for policymakers to force the masses to pay attention to what they want them to see or hear in an age of abundant media content and unrestricted choice.  “[R]egulation cannot, in a liberal democracy, force viewers to consume media products they do not think they want in the name of the public interest,” argues Ellen P. Goodman of the Rutgers-Camden School of Law.^[31]

Our Many “Public Squares”

More importantly, there seems to be little need for a new spectrum fee for “public interest” content or a “public square” channel in light of the explosion of civic-oriented and culturally enriching programming on both traditional and new media platforms.  In essence, we now have many “public square” channels.

For example, the growth of news channels and programs (CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Current TV, many financial news networks, and more) and international news outlets (BBC America, CNN International, etc.) has been well-documented.  Most notable in this regard is the stunning success of the cable industry’s C-SPAN network and its sister properties.^[32] But these cable news channels and programs are also a growing force online as well.  “Like their television programs, the major cable news channels’ websites attracted record viewership in 2008, driven in a large part by the political and economic news of the year,” reports the Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism.^[33] Moreover, these cable news sites “have also evolved into true multimedia destinations.  All now feature video archives, RSS feeds and features for accessing the sites on mobile devices.  They all offer live streaming content.”^[34] Meanwhile, C-SPAN recently created the C-SPAN Video Library,[35] which archives 23 years worth (1987-on) of fully searchable (and free) video content, including: 161,000 overall hours of programming; 56,600 hours of House & Senate floor activity; and, 20,152 hours of House & Senate committee hearings.[36]

Americans have many other ways of finding important news and civic information online.  The 2008 presidential election serves as a dramatic illustration of how voters have become better informed and how candidates have exciting new ways to connect with them.  The Pew Internet & American Life Project found that “some 74% of Internet users—representing 55% of the entire adult population—went online in 2008 to get involved in the political process or to get news and information about the election.”^[37] And President Barack Obama’s unprecedented use of new media tools during 2008 is often credited with helping to propel him into the White House.  Millions of Americans made their views known about various issues on sites such as Obama’s Change.gov website.  Wired reported that “Obama’s online success dwarfed [Senator John McCain’s], and proved key to his winning the presidency.”^[38]

Volunteers used Obama’s website to organize a thousand phone-banking events in the last week of the race—and 150,000 other campaign-related events over the course of the campaign.  Supporters created more than 35,000 groups clumped by affinities like geographical proximity and shared pop-cultural interests.  By the end of the campaign, myBarackObama.com chalked up some 1.5 million accounts.  And Obama raised a record-breaking $600 million in contributions from more than three million people, many of whom donated through the web.^[39]

Four years earlier, Joe Trippi, former campaign manager of Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential campaign and the author of The Revolution Will Not Be Televised: Democracy, The Internet, and The Overthrow of Everything, had noted that the Dean campaign’s heavy use of new, interactive media and communications technologies was, “a sneak preview of coming attractions—the interplay between new technologies and old institutions.  The end result will be massive communities completely redefining our politics, our commerce, our government, and the entire public fabric our culture.”^[40] He concluded: “what we are seeing—at its core—is a political phenomenon, a democratic movement that proceeds from our civic lives and naturally spills over in the music we hear, the clothes we buy, the causes we support.”^[41] President Obama’s campaign certainly seems to have been proof of that.

Of course, all this comes in addition to the stunning proliferation of user-generation media such as blogs, discussion boards, listservs, social networking sites, Twitter, You Tube, and so on.  Dan Gillmor, author of We the Media: Grassroots Journalism By the People, For the People, notes just how profound the impact of new media and citizen journalism will be:

Tomorrow’s news reporting and production will be more of a conversation, or a seminar.  The lines will blur between produces and consumers, changing the role of both in ways we’re only beginning to grasp now.  The communications network itself will be a medium for everyone’s voice, not just the few who can afford to buy multimillion-dollar printing presses, launch satellites, or win the government’s permission to squat on the public’s airwaves.^[42]

Likewise, in its recent State of the News Media 2010 report, the Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism reported that “Citizen journalism at the local level is expanding rapidly and brimming with innovation.”^[43] The report also noted that:

highly promising citizen and alternative sites are emerging daily.  Imaginative news formats, partnerships, formats, technological capabilities and passionate supporters of journalism values offer significant reasons for optimism as journalism continues its mission to inform citizens, make their lives better and nurture democratic processes.^[44]

Conclusion

In light of these developments, it’s hard to take seriously the charge that “deliberative democracy” is somehow on the decline in America and that the imposition of a spectrum fee to create a government-controlled “public square channel” or more “public interest” content in general would actually change the constitution of news, culture, or civic engagement in any significant way.  And even if government creates or subsidizes wonderful, civic- and culturally-enriching content, there’s no way to force people to consume it.

Finally, regardless of how spectrum fee proceeds might be spent, the proposal raises fundamental fairness issues for broadcasters.  Indeed, it is doubly insulting for them.  Not only has public broadcasting and non-commercial media been siphoning off more and more market share in recent years, but this proposal would impose a new tax on private broadcasters to fund those competitors (or some other media outlets) at a time when broadcasters are struggling for their very existence.  If Congress imposed a spectrum fee on broadcasters, it would essentially be signing a death warrant for the medium.  It’s hard to see how that’s in “the public interest.”

Related PFF Publications

• The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part 1: Taxes on Consumer Electronics, Mobile Phones & Broadband, Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, PFF Progress on Point 17.1, March 2010.
• Testimony at FCC’s Hearing on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era”, Adam Thierer, March 2010.
• Public Option for Press Should Get the Red Pen, Adam Thierer, The Daily Caller, Jan. 2010.
• Chairman Leibowitz’s Disconnect on Privacy Regulation & the Future of News, Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, Progress Snapshot 6.1, Jan. 13, 2010.
• Socializing Media in Order to Save It, Adam Thierer, City Journal, March 2009.
• A Manifesto for Media Freedom, Adam Thierer & Brian Anderson, 2008.
• Media Ownership Proceedings, W. Kenneth Ferree, Testimony before the Federal Communications Commission, Nov. 3, 2009.
• Media Myths: Making Sense of the Debate over Media Ownership, Adam Thierer, June 2005.

[2] This essay is condensed from a chapter that appeared in a new book from Congressional Quarterly Press. See: Resolved, Broadcasters Should be Charged a Spectrum Fee to Finance Programming in the Public Interest, Pro: Norm Ornstein, Con: Adam Thierer, in Richard J. Ellis and Michael Nelson, Debating Reform: Conflicting Perspectives on How to Fix the American Political System (2010) at 53-69.

[3] See generally Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Myths: Understanding the Debate over Media Ownership (2005) at 85-104, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/books/050610mediamyths.pdf.

[4] Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Why Expansion of the FCC’s Public Interest Regulatory Regime is Unwise, Unneeded, Unconstitutional, and Unenforceable, Testimony Before the Federal Communications Commission Hearing on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era,” March 4, 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/testimony/2010/2010-03-04-Thierer_Remarks_at_FCC_Hearing.pdf.

[5] Glen O. Robinson, The Federal Communications Act: An Essay on Origins and Regulatory Purpose, in A Legislative History of the Communications Act of 1934 3, 14 (Max D. Paglin ed., 1989). Likewise, Lawrence J. White has noted that, “The ‘public interest’ is a vague, ill-defined concept. Under the ‘public interest’ banner the Congress and the FCC have established far too many protectionist, anticompetitive, anti-innovative, inflexible, output-limiting regulatory regimes and have unnecessarily infringed on the First Amendment rights of broadcasters.” See Lawrence J. White, Spectrum for Sale, The Milken Institute Review (June 2001) at 38. See also William T. Mayton, The Illegitimacy of the Public Interest Standard at the FCC, 38 Emory Law Journal 715, 716 (1989).

[6] Ronald H. Coase, The Federal Communications Commission, 2 J. L. & Econ. 1, 8–9 (1959). Even supporters of broadcast regulation such as Paul Taylor and Norman Ornstein admit that, “neither in the 1927 [Radio] Act nor in the 1934 [Communications] Act, nor subsequently, did Congress define clearly what actions by broadcasters would represent managing their stations in the public interest.” Paul Taylor & Norman Ornstein, New America Foundation, A Broadcast Spectrum Fee for Campaign Finance Reform, Spectrum Series Working Paper No. 4, (2002) at 6.

[7] See Adam Thierer, Media Myths: Making Sense of the Debate over Media Ownership (2005) at 85-104; www.pff.org/issues-pubs/books/050610mediamyths.pdf; Adam Thierer, Is the Public Served by the Public Interest Standard? The Freeman, Vol. 46, No. 9, Sept. 1996, at 618-20, www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/is-the-public-served-by-the-public-interest-standard; William T. Mayton, The Illegitimacy of the Public Interest Standard at the FCC, 38 Emory Law Journal, 1989, at 715-69.

[8] See John W. Berresford, Federal Communications Commission, The Scarcity Rationale for Regulating Traditional Broadcasting: An Idea Whose Time Has Passed, FCC Media Bureau, Staff Research Paper No. 2005-2, (March 2005) www.fcc.gov/ownership/materials/already-released/scarcity030005.pdf. Berresford refers to the scarcity rationale as “outmoded,” “based on fundamental misunderstandings of physics and economics,” and “no longer valid.”

[9] Adam Thierer, Why Regulate Broadcasting : Toward a Consistent First Amendment Standard for the Information Age, 15 CommLaw Conspectus (Summer 2007) at 431-482; http://commlaw.cua.edu/articles/v15/15_2/Thierer.pdf.

[10] See Adam Thierer & Grant Eskelsen, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Metrics: The True State of the Modern Media Marketplace, Summer 2008, www.pff.org/mediametrics.

[11] Thierer, supra note 4.

[12] Id. at 7-12.

[13] “By taking some modest fee from commercial broadcasters for their use of the public spectrum in lieu of the public trustee obligation, noncommercial television could be adequately funded to deliver high-quality public service programming.” Henry Geller, Geller to FCC: Scrap the Rules, Try a Spectrum Fee, Current.org, Oct. 30, 2000, www.current.org/why/why0020geller.shtml. Also see Henry Geller, Promoting the Public Interest in the Digital Era, Federal Communications Law Journal, Vol. 55, No. 3, 2003, www.law.indiana.edu/fclj/pubs/v55/no3/Geller.pdf.

[14] Charles M. Firestone, The Aspen Institute, The Spectrum Check Off Alternative to Public Interest Regulation of Broadcasters, www.aspeninstitute.org/policy-work/communications-society/papers-interest/-spectrum-check-alternative-public-interest-regul

[15] See Ornstein supra 2 at 61. Also see Remarks of Norman Ornstein at George Mason University event, The Gore Commission, 10 Years Later: The Public Interest Obligations of Digital TV Broadcasters in Perfect Hindsight, Oct. 3, 2008, www.iep.gmu.edu/documents/Ornstein.doc.

[16] Paul Taylor and Norman Ornstein, New America Foundation, A Broadcast Spectrum Fee for Campaign Finance Reform, Spectrum Series Working Paper #4, June 2002, www.newamerica.net/files/IssueBrief5.FreeAirTime.TaylorOrnstein.pdf.

[17] Leonard Downie, Jr. & Michael Schudson, The Reconstruction of American Journalism, Columbia Journalism Review, Oct. 20, 2009, at 92, available at www.scribd.com/doc/21268382/Reconstruction-of-Journalism.

[18] Id.

[19] See Robert W. McChesney & John Nichols, The Death and Life of American Journalism (2010) at 209-10.

[20] Firestone, supra note 14.

[21] Adam Thierer and Wayne Crews, Cato Institute, Just Don’t Do It: The Digital Opportunities Investment Trust (DO IT) Fund, Cato TechKnowledge, No. 35, May 6, 2002, www.cato.org/tech/tk/020506-tk.html

[22] Quoted in Neil Hickey, TV’s Big Stick: Why the Broadcast Industry Gets What it Wants in Washington, Columbia Journalism Review, September/October 2002, p. 53.

[23] See Thierer & Eskelsen, supra note 7.

[24] Pew Project For Excellence in Journalism, Local TV, The State of the News Media 2010, March 2010, www.stateofthemedia.org/2010/local_tv_summary_essay.php.

[25] Michael Grotticelli, Local TV Stations Face Uncertain Future, Broadcast Engineering, Feb. 23, 2009, http://broadcastengineering.com/news/local-stations-face-uncertain-future-0223.

[26] Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism, Audio – Traditional Broadcast and Broadcast Online, The State of the News Media 2010, March 2010, www.stateofthemedia.org/2010/audio_traditional_broadcast.php.

[27] Ben Compaine, Domination Fantasies, Reason, Jan. 2004, at 33, http://reason.com/archives/2004/01/01/domination-fantasies

[28] Id.

[29] Quoted in Thomas G. Krattenmaker and Lucas A. Powe, Jr., Regulating Broadcast Programming (1994) at 314.

[30] Ellen P. Goodman of the Rutgers-Camden School of Law argues: “Given the proliferation of consumer filtering and choice, these kinds of interventions are of questionable efficacy. Consumers equipped with digital selection and filtering tools are likely to avoid content they do not demand no matter what the regulatory efforts to force exposure.” Ellen P. Goodman, “Proactive Media Policy in an Age of Content Abundance,” in Philip M. Napoli, ed., Media Diversity and Localism: Meaning and Metrics (2007) at 370, 374.  And there is no reason to believe this situation has ever been different or will ever change. Writing in 1922, famed journalist Walter Lippmann noted that, “it is possible to make a rough estimate only of the amount of attention people give each day to informing themselves about public affairs,” but “the time each day is small when any of us is directly exposed to information from our unseen environment.” Walter Lippmann, Public Opinion (1922), p. 53, 57.

[31] Id. at 374.

[32] Importantly, many people fail to realize that C-SPAN is a private, non-profit company that is provided as a public service by cable industry contributions. It receives no government or taxpayer contributions. From 1979-2009, total license fees paid by cable & satellite companies to support C-SPAN totaled $922 million. See Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, C-SPAN, Civic-Minded Programming & Public Interest Regulation, PFF Blog, March 2, 2010, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2010/03/c-span_civic-minded_programming_public_interest_re.html

[33] Cable TV, in State of the News Media 2009, www.stateofthemedia.org/2009/narrative_cabletv_digitaltrends.php?media=7&cat=6/#key6

[34] Id.

[35] www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary

[36] See Thierer, supra note 28. See also Brian Stelter, C-Span Puts Full Archives on the Web, New York Times, March 15, 2010,  www.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/arts/television/16cspan.html

[37] Aaron Smith, The Internet’s Role in Campaign 2008, The Pew Internet & American Life, April 15, 2009, www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2009/6–The-Internets-Role-in-Campaign-2008.aspx

[38] Sarah Lai Stirland, Propelled by Internet, Barack Obama Wins Presidency, Wired.com, Nov. 4, 2008,  www.wired.com/threatlevel/2008/11/propelled-by-in

[39] Id.

[40] Joe Trippi, The Revolution Will Not Be Televised: Democracy, The Internet, and The Overthrow of Everything (2004), at 203. [emphasis original].

[41] Id.

[42] Dan Gillmor, We the Media: Grassroots Journalism By the People, For the People (2004), at xiii.

[43] Pew Project For Excellence in Journalism, Introduction, State of the News Media 2010, March 2010,   www.stateofthemedia.org/2010/overview_intro.php

[44] Pew Project For Excellence in Journalism, Community Journalism, State of the News Media 2010, March 2010,  www.stateofthemedia.org/2010/specialreports_community_journalism.php

Wrong Way to Reinvent Media Part 2 – Broadcast Spectrum Taxes [Thierer- PFF] http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf

By Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka

As we mentioned yesterday, in a new series of essays, we will be examining proposals being put forward today that would have the government play a greater role in sustaining struggling media enterprises, “saving journalism,” or promoting more “public interest” content. With many traditional media operators struggling, and questions being raised about how journalism in particular will be supported in the future, Washington policymakers are currently considering what role government can and should play in helping media providers reinvent themselves in the face of tumultuous technological change wrought by the Digital Revolution. We will be releasing 6 or 7 essays on this topic leading up to our big filing in the FCC’s “Future of Media” proceeding (deadline is May 7^th).

In the first installment of our series, we will critique an old idea that’s suddenly gained new currency: taxing media devices or distribution systems to fund media content. We argue that such media income redistribution is fundamentally inconsistent with American press traditions, highly problematic under the First Amendment, difficult to implement in a world of media abundance and platform convergence, and likely to cause serious negative side effects.  Bottom line: Don’t tax our iPhones or broadband to subsidize media!

We’ve attached the entire text of the piece below. (Installment #2, on broadcast spectrum taxes to subsidize public media, will be released next week.)

The Wrong Way to Reinvent Media, Part I: Taxes on Consumer Electronics, Mobile Phones & Broadband

by Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka*

PFF Progress on Point 17.1 [PDF]

With many traditional media operators struggling, and questions being raised about how journalism in particular will be supported in the future,[1] Washington policymakers are currently considering what role government can and should play in helping media providers reinvent themselves in the face of tumultuous technological change wrought by the Digital Revolution. For example, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently kicked off a new “Future of Media” effort with a workshop on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era.” Likewise, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has hosted two workshops asking “How Will Journalism Survive the Internet Age?”  Meanwhile, the Senate has already held hearings about “the future of journalism,” and Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD) recently introduced the “Newspaper Revitalization Act,” which would allow newspapers to become tax-exempt non-profits in an effort to help them stay afloat.

In a series of forthcoming essays leading up to the May 7 filing deadline for the FCC’s “Future of Media” proceeding, we will discuss and critique some of the leading proposals being put forward that would have the government play a greater role in sustaining struggling media enterprises, “saving journalism,” or promoting more “public interest” content.

In this essay, we discuss an old idea that‘s gained new currency: taxing media  devices or distribution systems to fund media content. We argue that such media income redistribution is fundamentally inconsistent with American press traditions, highly problematic under the First Amendment, difficult to implement in a world of media abundance and platform convergence, and likely to cause serious negative side effects.

The BBC Model: Taxing Devices

Taxing devices to subsidize media content has never gained much traction here in the U.S., but it’s been used by some foreign governments for many decades.  Most famously, taxes on radios, eventually replaced by taxes on televisions, have sustained the BBC in the U.K. since its inception as the world’s first national broadcasting system in 1922. According to the most recent BBC annual report, the annual “fee” was raised to £142.50/year (currently $213.43) as of April 2009.  Failure to pay the fee is, of course, a crime and punished with stiff fines up to £1000 ($1497.75)—and radio emissions from unlicensed televisions can be detected by government vans that rove Britain’s streets looking for violators.  The revenue generated by the tax is then allocated among various BBC media products, with most of it going to the BBC 1 and BBC 2 television channels.

The U.S. has taken a different approach.  We’ve not embedded a tax in the cost of new media devices to pay for the content delivered over those devices.  (Of course, that’s at least partially because we’ve had a strong tradition of free markets in media ever since we revolted against the Brits and mercantilism, their system of state-directed economic planning!)  Generally speaking, private media operators have been expected to pay their own way in this country and not look to government for direct support.

America has had some indirect subsidies in the form of reduced postal rates for print media, as well as tax treatment for advertising.  And taxpayer dollars have been channeled to the CPB/PBS/NPR regime, of course.  But such public subsidy is small potatoes when compared to private media in the U.S.  For example, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting’s 2010 budget is just $400 million.[2] While many look to CPB to fund children’s programming (among its many other activities), its entire budget is no more than a quarter of the total amount of U.S. advertising revenue produced by children’s programming from food and beverages products alone: $1.6 billion in 2006 by the FTC’s most conservative estimates.[3] That comparison illustrates the vital importance of advertising to media,[4] but subscriptions, direct sales, and private patronage have also been major economic engines of media in United States.

But the idea of more direct government support for media (and journalism, in particular) has always been lurking out there.  There’s long been a small but vociferous crowd of academics and policymakers advocating huge increases in government spending on non-commercial or public media.  And some of them have even toyed with a tax on technology to cross-subsidize the media content that flows over those devices or networks.  Most recently, Robert W. McChesney and John Nichols, authors of the new book The Death and Life of American Journalism, have proposed a 4-part tax plan to raise money ($18-21 billion) for a massive $35 billion/year “public works” program for the press (with the remainder coming from other sources):[5]

• a 5% tax on consumer electronics (they estimate it would bring in $4 billion/year)
• a 3% tax on monthly ISP & cell phone bills (estimated $6 billion/year)
• a 2% sales tax on advertising (estimated $5 to $6 billion/year)
• a 7% tax on broadcasters (estimated $3-6 billion/year)

Similarly, Leonard Downie, Jr., Vice President at Large of The Washington Post, and Michael Schudson, a Professor at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, have advocated the creation of a “Fund for Local News” that “would make grants for advances in local news reporting and innovative ways to support it.”[6] The Fund would make grants to news organizations through “Local News Fund Councils” and would be financed by “fees paid by radio and television licensees, or proceeds from auctions of telecommunications spectrum, or new fees imposed on Internet service providers.”[7] (Note: Proposals to impose fees on radio and television licensees will be discussed in a subsequent installment of this PFF series.  But for purposes of this installment, we reference the Downie & Schudson plan because of its call for fees on ISPs as one method of financing media going forward.)

More Platforms, More Taxes

McChesney and Nichols don’t go into a lot of detail about their tax proposals, but the consumer electronics tax they favor appears to be based on the 1967 Carnegie Commission Report, which called for a 5% tax on all new television purchases—a variant on Britain’s annual licensing fee.  But instead of just taxing “televisions”—which would be very difficult in a world of technological convergence where consumers can “watch television” on any number of devices (PCs, mobile phones, portable gaming devices, portable media players, etc.)—they apparently want to tax all consumer electronic devices.  Thus, they seem to recognize the reality of convergence but their answer is to just tax everything!

The British themselves have struggled with technological change: In 1971, the radio fee first introduced in 1922 was abolished, and in 1972, so was the BBC’s radio monopoly, with commercial radio stations being allowed to compete with BBC Radio for the first time.  One might argue that abolishing the radio tax and relying on a single tax (on televisions) to fund the BBC’s television programming (67% of BBC spending) as well as BBC radio (17%) was simply more efficient—since most consumers had a television as well as a radio.  Indeed, actually implementing any media device tax in the U.S. could prove very difficult, since countering evasion would require imposing sales taxes on online retailers ranging from Amazon.com to TigerDirect.com to countless small operators who sell TVs, DVD players, cell phones, and a wide variety of other gadgets.  So much for the Internet sales tax moratorium!

But the evasion problem is a real one. The BBC estimates an 8.7% evasion rate, and it’s not clear how much more (or less) of a problem evasion might be when the tax is imposed at the point of sale (as McChesney and Nichols propose) rather than every year (as in Britain).  But clearly, the problem can’t be solved simply by trying to tax all consumer electronics:  The higher the tax rate, the more likely a black market will develop for discounted devices—with all the problems that generally come with black markets, such as funding organized crime. Whenever someone proposes a single-digit tax rate for anything, it’s worth remembering that the federal income tax started out at 1-7% back in 1913—and, well, we all know how that turned out!  (Top rates rose to 67-73% during World War I, fell again to the mid-20s under Coolidge, then jumped again to 63% by 1933 and didn’t fall below 50% till 1986!)  Maybe McChesney and Nichols realize how ugly black markets would get if tax rates on devices rise in the future—and perhaps that’s why they’re trying to spread the pain around by taxing broadband and wireless service, advertising and broadcasting, too.  But, as discussed next, that’s another problem with the plan.

Taxation’s Negative Disincentives

Taxes distort markets and human behavior.  Long ago, Chief Justice John Marshall taught us that “the power to tax is the power to destroy.”  As the late Clarence B. Carson noted in an article of the same name:

Any level of taxation will make some undertakings unprofitable or submarginal. In practice, any increase in taxes will drive some people out of business, prevent them from going into business, or make it difficult or impossible for them to sustain themselves by whatever they are doing.[8]

This helps us understand why raising taxes on mobile phones and broadband bills would be particularly foolish way of supporting media:  it will distort beneficial behavior by both providers and consumers of communications conduit.

The FCC just recently reported that cost is a major factor for many households who decide not to buy broadband service (even though it’s available).  Why, after the FCC spent 13 months producing a 376-page, Congressionally mandated National Broadband Report on ways to increase the utilization and affordability of broadband, would we want to do anything to boost broadband bills, even in the name of “saving journalism”?  Increased taxes on broadband bills might discourage some broadband providers from rolling out innovative new services as rapidly as planned.  And once the new service tax is passed along to consumers—as all business taxes inevitably are—they might be less likely to adopt broadband, or might even cancel existing service.  How would that benefit media and journalism?

The same goes for mobile phones. CTIA—The Wireless Association estimates that wireless users already pay an average 15% tax (local state and federal) on their cell phone bills.  Moreover, if there is one thing we can count on, it’s that taxes inevitably rise once they get on the books, whatever the intention of their initial architects.  That‘s especially true when the tax creates a new class of subsidy recipients who have a vested interest in keeping the scheme alive and growing. Thus, what starts out as 3-5% tax on phones, broadband, and consumer electronics, will likely grow to be much higher over time.  Pretty soon the FCC will look like the massively inefficient Department of Agriculture, doling out subsides to everybody and his brother who qualifies for media industry corporate welfare.

How Will the Government Spend Your Money?

But the more interesting question about such a media tax may be on the  payout side of the scheme.  Herein lies a fundamental difference between the BBC model and what McChesney and Nichols are proposing: The BBC fees have always been used to fund BBC content only, not for all media.  True, the BBC once held monopolies in radio and television, but those monopolies died long ago, and when they did, the British did not share fee revenue with the BBC’s competitors.  Instead, commercial radio and television in the UK have had to rely on subscription and advertising revenues, just as in the US.  Thus, the British model does not answer a profoundly difficult question: Even if we assume government could create a reasonably effective media tax collection regime, who would qualify for a cut of the money?

In an age of user-generated content and a wide variety of hybrid media products, it would seem that defining eligibility criteria for the subsidy might be significantly more challenging than it was in the past. Would blogs qualify?  What about live reporting via Twitter or photo-journalism via Flickr?  Who gets to decide what qualifies as news worth subsidizing, as opposed to mere opinions or aggregation?  Similarly, the “Fund for Local News” and “Local News Fund Councils” favored by Downie and Schudson would be doubly problematic.  They propose that, “The criteria for grants should be journalistic quality, local relevance, innovation in news reporting, and the capacity of the news organization, small or big, to carry out the reporting.”[9] But, again, who determines “journalistic quality” and “the capacity… to carry out the reporting” or even what constitutes “local” news?

Beyond such practical problems, determining eligibility raises profound First Amendment questions because, as the Supreme Court has held, “in the realm of private speech or expression, government regulation may not favor one speaker over another.”[10] The Court has also held that “Both tax exemptions and tax deductibility are a form of subsidy that is administered through the tax system.”[11] Thus, the government may not pick preferred classes of speakers for subsidies, just as it may not single out disfavored classes for penalties.  For example, a state university may not selectively deny funding to a gay and lesbian students association, because, as the Eighth Circuit has held:

a public body that chooses to fund speech or expression must do so even-handedly, without discriminating among recipients on the basis of their ideology.  The University need not supply funds to student organizations; but once having decided to do so, it is bound by the First Amendment to act without regard to the content of the ideas being expressed.  This will mean, to use Holmes’s phrase, that the taxpayers will occasionally be obligated to support not only the thought of which they approve, but also the thought that they hate. That is one of the fundamental premises of American law.[12]

And there’s also a First Amendment-related concern here associated with the potentially—if subtly—coercive effects of subsidies on the independent editorial discretion of news-gatherers.  Downie and Schudson insist they “understand the complexity of establishing a workable grant selection system and the need for strict safeguards to shield news organizations from pressure or coercion from state councils or anyone in government.”^[13] Yet they hope political pressure can, somehow, be kept to a minimum.  Likewise, McChesney and Nichols largely dismiss such concerns about undue political influence on subsidized entities—even though they cite several examples of politicians attempting to use the purse strings to influence PBS and NPR funding over the past four decades![14]

Regardless, these scholars fail to account for the fact that, going forward, political pressure would likely grow in proportion to dependence of media entities upon such public subsidy and the overall amount of those subsidies.  After all, we’re talking about taxpayer funding for the press on an unprecedented scale here.  Moreover, the more visible these subsidies become—especially then the funding goes to highly controversial media content or outlets ( e.g., involving pornography, vulgarity, politics, religion, abortion, homosexuality)—the more likely the public and politicians are to clamor for rules on who gets what.  We’ve already seen a microcosm of that concern with National Endowment for the Arts funding for controversial art and culture in the past.  Now imagine media subsidies on the scale that McChesney and Nichols envision coupled with Downie and Schudson’s “Local News Fund Councils” sorting out competing claims and concerns.  Media funding will quickly become a political circus—and another front in the ongoing Culture Wars.

Here’s another concern: Will this scheme lead to more or less media competition?  It would be misguided to argue that such a tax system couldn’t fund some quality journalism and even entertainment.  After all, there’s some wonderful stuff on the BBC.  But without having run the numbers for all countries, there seems to be a correlation between the level of government investment in media and the overall number of media outlets at the public’s disposal.  When visiting Europe, one is struck by how even the largest European countries have so few choices compared to what we have here in the States, and that’s true across media (video, audio, print, online).  Could that be because government spending / investment in media has had a crowding-out effect on private media?  That possibility is at least worth considering as some look to broaden public support for media here in the U.S. Government simply doesn’t have a very good track record of creating innovative, competitive businesses and markets.

How the Death of Private, For-Profit Media Becomes a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Which leads to a final concern: There’s just a gut-level discomfort many of us would have with the idea of government imposing even more taxes on us to support industries or interests we might find distasteful or not deserving of corporate welfare.  It’s one thing to say that the government should play a role at the margin funneling some money into public broadcasting efforts via the CPB for limited purposes, but it’s quite another to suggest that this should be the new model upon which all media should rest.  That’s essentially what McChesney and Nichols propose in their book, on the grounds that “the old order is collapsing” and private media is dead.

Of course, it’s virtually a self-fulfilling prophecy that private media operators will fail if you impose a smorgasbord of new tax burdens on them and related devices and distribution channels—and then channel the money to “public media” competitors!  As will be discussed in a future installment in this series of essays, taxing advertising is particularly harmful because those taxes come straight out of the advertising revenues upon which most publishers depend for their lifeblood.

But raising prices of innovative consumer electronics like readers ( e.g., Amazon’s Kindle, Barnes & Noble’s Nook, Sony’s Reader or Apple’s iPad) and the wireless broadband services that connect them isn’t such a bright idea either at a time when traditional publishers are hoping that new media distribution and consumption technologies will also allow them to experiment with new business models (like selling subscriptions for magazines or newspapers tailored for these devices).  Unlike the British annual license fee, a tax imposed at the point of purchase would discourage users from buying new devices.  This, in turn would slow adoption of new technologies and retard innovation in a market that has seen consumers move increasingly towards replacing their old devices every few years, due to the constant increased in processing power and functionality made possible by Moore’s Law.

Taken together, these tax proposals are a sure-fire way to achieve McChesney’s true radical end: the destruction of private, commercial media and journalism.  Let’s not forget, after all, that McChesney has argued (during this interview with the Canadian-based “Socialist Project”) that “the ultimate goal is to get rid of the media capitalists,” and that, “unless you make significant changes in the media, it will be vastly more difficult to have a revolution.”[15] And in his book with Nichols, he concludes by noting that “We have responded in a time of crisis not with tinkering reforms but with revolution.”[16]

Indeed they have!  But such radicalism must be rejected if we hope to sustain a truly free press and uphold America’s proud tradition of keeping a high and tight wall of separation between Press and State.  Americans would do well remember to remember the (other) Golden Rule: “Whoever Has the Gold, Makes the Rules!”[17] The more control politicians have over funding media, the more control they will inevitably have over media itself.

Related PFF Publications

• Testimony at FCC’s Hearing on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era ,” Adam Thierer, March 2010.
• Public Option for Press Should Get the Red Pen, Adam Thierer, The Daily Caller, Jan. 2010.
• Chairman Leibowitz’s Disconnect on Privacy Regulation & the Future of News, Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, Progress Snapshot 6.1, Jan. 13, 2010.
• Socializing Media in Order to Save It, Adam Thierer, City Journal, March 2009.
• A Manifesto for Media Freedom , Adam Thierer & Brian Anderson, 2008.
• Media Ownership Proceedings, W. Kenneth Ferree, Testimony before the Federal Communications Commission, Nov. 3, 2009.
• Media Myths: Making Sense of the Debate over Media Ownership, Adam Thierer, June 2005.

[1] The Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism reports that: “The numbers for 2009 reveal just how urgent these questions are becoming. Newspapers, including online, saw ad revenue fall 26% during the year, which brings the total loss over the last three years to 43%. Local television ad revenue fell 22% in 2009, triple the decline the year before. Radio also was off 22%. Magazine ad revenue dropped 17%, network TV 8% (and news alone probably more). Online ad revenue over all fell about 5%, and revenue to news sites most likely also fared much worse. Only cable news among the commercial news sectors did not suffer declining revenue last year.” Pew Project For Excellence in Journalism, Introduction, The State of the News Media 2010, March 2010, www.stateofthemedia.org/2010/overview_intro.php.

[2] Corporation for Public Broadcasting, FY 2010 Operating Budget, www.cpb.org/aboutcpb/leadership/board/resolutions/090915_fy10OperatingBudget.pdf.

[3] See FTC’s 2008 report, Marketing Food to Children and Adolescents: A Review of Industry Expenditures, Activities, and Self-Regulation, at ES-1-2, www.ftc.gov/os/2008/07/P064504foodmktingreport.pdf.

[4] Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, The Hidden Benefactor: How Advertising Informs, Educates & Benefits Consumers, PFF Progress Snapshot 6.5, Feb. 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2010/ps6.5-the-hidden-benefactor.html.

[5] Robert W. McChesney & John Nichols, The Death and Life of American Journalism (2010) at 210-11.

[6] Leonard Downie, Jr. & Michael Schudson, The Reconstruction of American Journalism, Columbia Journalism Review, Oct. 20, 2009, at 92, available at www.scribd.com/doc/21268382/Reconstruction-of-Journalism.

[7] Id.

[8] Clarence B. Carson, The Power to Tax is the Power to Destroy, The Freeman, Vol. 26, No. 10, Oct. 1976, www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/the-power-to-tax-is-the-power-to-destroy.

[9] Downie & Schudson, supra note 6 at. 93.

[10] Rosenberger, 515 U.S. 819, 828 (1995).

[11] Regan v. Taxation with Representation of Washington, 461 U.S. 540, 544 (1983).

[12] Gay & Lesbian Students Assoc, 850 F.2d 361, 362 (8th Cir. 1988).

[13] Id.

[14] McChesney & Nichols, supra note 5 at 193-99.

[15] Socialist Project, Media Capitalism, the State and 21st Century Media Democracy Struggles: An Interview with Robert McChesney, The Bullet, Socialist Project, E-Bulletin No. 246, Aug. 9, 2009, www.socialistproject.ca/bullet/246.php.

[16] Id.

[17] The Big Apple, Golden Rule (“He Who Has the Gold Makes the Rules”), June 13, 2009,  www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/golden_rule_he_who_has_the_gold_makes_the_rules.

Wrong Way to Reinvent Media Part 1 – Media Taxes [Thierer & Szoka – PFF] http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf

By Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka

In a series of upcoming essays, we will be examining proposals being put forward today that would have the government play a greater role in sustaining struggling media enterprises, “saving journalism,” or promoting more “public interest” content. The reason we’re working up this multi-part series is because, with many traditional media operators struggling, and questions being raised about how journalism in particular will be supported in the future, Washington policymakers are currently considering what role government can and should play in helping media providers reinvent themselves in the face of tumultuous technological change wrought by the Digital Revolution.

For example, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently kicked off a new “Future of Media” effort with a workshop on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era.” (The  filing deadline for the FCC’s “Future of Media” proceeding is May 7^th).  Likewise, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has hosted two workshops asking “How Will Journalism Survive the Internet Age?”  Meanwhile, the Senate has already held hearings about “the future of journalism,” and Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD) recently introduced the “Newspaper Revitalization Act,” which would allow newspapers to become tax-exempt non-profits in an effort to help them stay afloat.

Thus, in light of Washington’s sudden interest in the future of media and journalism, we will be taking a hard look at several issues and proposals that are being floated today, including:

• Taxes on media devices, mobile phones, or broadband bills to channel money to media enterprises / content;
• Taxes / fees on broadcasters to funnel support to their public sector competitors or to public interest programs;
• “News vouchers” or “public interest vouchers” that would encourage citizens to channel support to media providers;
• Taxes on private advertising to subsidize non-commercial / public media content;
• Expanded postal subsidies for media mail; and
• Targeted welfare programs for out-of-work journalists or corporate welfare in the form of bailouts for failing media enterprises.

You won’t be surprised to hear that we are generally quite skeptical of most of these ideas, but we promise to give each one serious consideration.  We’ll kick things off tomorrow with our essay on why taxing media devices or distribution systems to fund media content is not a particularly good idea.

Today I am testifying at an FCC hearing on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era.” [Speaker lineup here.] The purpose of the workshop is to explore:

• A brief history and overview of policies involving “public interest” requirements for commercial media and telecommunications companies;
• The state of local commercial broadcast TV and radio news and information; and
• The impact of media convergence and the emergence of the Internet, mobile technologies, and digital media on FCC media policy.

In my remarks, I focused on “Why Expansion of the FCC’s Public Interest Regulatory Regime is Unwise, Unneeded, Unconstitutional, and Unenforceable.” Down below I have attached my written remarks.

Why Expansion of the FCC’s Public Interest Regulatory Regime is Unwise, Unneeded, Unconstitutional, and Unenforceable

by Adam Thierer

I.       Introduction

Thank you for inviting me here today for this FCC workshop on “Serving the Public Interest in the Digital Era.” I have been asked to discuss “the impact of media convergence and the emergence of the Internet, mobile technologies, and digital media on FCC media policy”^[1] on the FCC’s “public interest” regulatory regime.

In my remarks, I will outline both the normative and practical cases against the expansion of “public interest” notions and corresponding regulatory requirements. I will argue that such considerations counsel that the Commission exercise extreme caution as it looks to revise regulations that govern America’s media marketplace.

II.     The Normative Case against Expansion of Public Interest Regulation

A.     The Inherent Ambiguity of “the Public Interest” Notion

The normative case against expansion of public interest regulation begins with the fact that this notion has always been haunted by an inherent ambiguity that is fundamentally at odds with America’s First Amendment tradition. Indeed, while public interest regulation has been considered the cornerstone of communications and media policy since the 1930s, at no time during these seven decades has the term been adequately defined.

Former FCC Commissioner Glen Robinson has argued that the public interest standard “is vague to the point of vacuousness, providing neither guidance nor constraint on the agency’s action.”^[2] And Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase argued 50 years ago that “The phrase… lacks any definite meaning. Furthermore, the many inconsistencies in commission decisions have made it impossible for the phrase to acquire a definite meaning in the process of regulation.”^[3]

And that is still true today. Simply put, the public interest standard is not really a “standard” at all since it has no fixed meaning; the definition of the phrase has shifted with the political winds to suit the whims of those in power at any given time.

B.      None Dare Call it Elitism

Still, many policymakers continue to prop up public interest notions and regulations in the belief that they are directing the content or character of media toward a nobler end. At times, their rhetoric takes on a fairy-tale quality as lawmakers and regulators speak of the public interest in reverential and fantastic terms, again, all the while deftly evading any attempt to define the term.

But the fundamental problem here is that public interest proponents assume that their values or objectives—which, in their opinion, are consistent with the needs and desires of the public—should ultimately triumph within the public policy arena. Simply stated, what motivates much public interest regulation is a simple desire by some here in Washington to tell the American people what’s best for them.

Worse yet, how the term has been interpreted and applied by the FCC has often depended on the ideological disposition of whatever party is in charge at the time.  As Ford Rowan, author of Broadcast Fairness, once noted: “Many liberals want regulation to make broadcasting do wonderful things; many conservatives want regulation to restrain broadcasting from doing terrible things.”^[4] Consequently, during periods of liberal rule, the “public interest” has been seen as a method of politically engineering more “educational” and “community-based” programming. By contrast, in the hands of conservative appointees, the public interest has been seen as an instrument to curb “indecent” speech.

Few have dared to call this elitism—but I will.^[5] What else should we call it when a five unelected officials here at the FCC sit in judgment of acceptable media content and dictate media marketplace outcomes? The viewing and listening public, however, has a broad array of interests and desires that cannot be easily gauged by this agency. As media scholar Benjamin Compaine has rightly noted, “[i]n democracies, there is no universal ‘public interest.’ Rather there are numerous and changing ‘interested publics.’”^[6]

Perhaps what some are afraid to ask is this: Does the public really want to watch what some policymakers and regulatory advocates consider to be more “culturally enriching” or “civic-minded” content, or would they rather tune into something else? Given the choice, many viewers will opt for what many public interest regulatory supporters would consider to be “low-brow” offerings over the programming that policymakers feel the masses should be consuming. Public interest supporters may bemoan the lack of civic spirit, or claim that this represents the end of our culture as we know it, but these are voluntary choices made by the citizenry that must be respected by government officials. In particular, government should not censor Americans’ choice of content through open-ended public interest regulatory rationales.^[7]

C.      There’s More “Public Internet” Content Than Ever Before, But You Can’t Force Citizens to Consume It

Generally speaking, however, the media marketplace traditionally has reflected what the public on average really wants to see and hear. And that’s even truer today. Viewers and listeners are being offered a stunning array of diverse media inputs and options. Just because the American people sometimes make choices that policymakers find distasteful, it does not mean that citizens don’t have good choices at their disposal.

For example, we are blessed to be living in the golden age of children’s video programming.^[8] As I have documented in my ongoing PFF special report on Parental Controls & Online Child Protection [9] and in other filings to the Commission,[10] there’s never been more educational and enriching kids programming available to families than there is today. Similarly, consider the stunning diversity of programming available thanks to the 500-plus channel universe of multichannel video options now at our disposal.[11] Almost every conceivable interest or hobby is now covered by a video network.^[12]

And is there really any shortage political programming or “civic-minded” content from which to choose?  C-SPAN alone covers more activity in the course of a week than most of us probably came into contact with in our entire lives just 30 years ago. Consider these data points.[13] In the 2009 calendar year, C-SPAN provided the following amount of first run programming across their three channels:

• 8,438 overall hours of programming;
• 2,709 hours of House & Senate floor activity; and,
• 1,222 hours of House & Senate committee hearings.

Moreover, C-SPAN recently created the C-SPAN Video Library,[14] which archives 23 years worth (1987-on) of fully searchable (and free) video content, including:

• 161,000 overall hours of programming;
• 56,600 hours of House & Senate floor activity; and,
• 20,152 of House & Senate committee hearings.

Importantly, many people fail to realize that C-SPAN is a private, non-profit company that is provided as a public service by cable industry contributions. It receives no government or taxpayer contributions. From 1979-2009, total license fees paid by cable & satellite companies to support C-SPAN totaled $922 million.

And let’s not forget about what the Internet has made available to us. It has given us unprecedented access to public affairs information—local, state, national, and international.

But, again, you can’t make people watch, listen, or read if they don’t want to. “Today, the scarce resource is attention, not programming,” notes Ellen P. Goodman of the Rutgers-Camden School of Law. “Given the proliferation of consumer filtering and choice, these kinds of interventions are of questionable efficacy. Consumers equipped with digital selection and filtering tools are likely to avoid content they do not demand no matter what the regulatory efforts to force exposure.”^[15]

Absent truly repressive measures to limit choice or alter consumer media consumption patterns, it will be impossible for policymakers to force the masses to pay attention to what they want them to see or hear in an age of abundant media content and unrestricted choice. “[R]egulation cannot, in a liberal democracy, force viewers to consumer media products they do not think they want in the name of the public interest,” argues Goodman.[16] (This dilemma creates additional practical problems for proposals to expand public interest regulation, which will be discussed in Sec. II below.)

D.     Returning to First Principles

Yet now we face the prospect of this arbitrary regulatory regime being expanding to cover more platforms and speech.^[17] But, instead of first looking to expand regulation, we should use this as an opportunity to return to first principles—especially in light of the dubious constitutionality of the FCC’s existing public interest regulatory regime.^[18]

We should begin by recalling that, from the time of the republic’s founding, public interest regulation has never been applied to newspapers, magazines, pamphlets, or books. Instead, the First Amendment has reigned supreme.[19] And when policymakers attempted to apply such public interest obligations to print media, those edicts were ruled flatly unconstitutional.^[20]

The characteristics of broadcast radio and television, however, were considered sufficiently unique to justify a different regulatory approach and second-class citizenship status in terms of First Amendment rights.  Scarcity, of course, was the lynchpin of the regulatory regime imposed on the broadcast industry, and it yielded calls for public interest regulation of the medium. But whatever one thinks of the scarcity rationale for differential treatment of broadcasting—and, personally, I don’t believe it was ever a legitimate excuse for diminished First Amendment treatment—that era of scarcity is clearly over.^[21] We now live in an age of information abundance—even information overload.^[22] We have more media options and diversity at our disposal today than ever before, and generally at falling prices.^[23] And yet, at the Commission, it continues to be business as usual.

The courts, however, have acknowledged that the situation on the ground has changed, and changed radically. When policymakers have sought to expand broadcast-like regulatory requirements to newer media platforms in recent years, the Courts have pushed back. That has particularly been the case for the Internet^[24] and video game content.^[25] The jurisprudential Twilight Zone will live in today—in which we classify services and determine free speech rights based on technical characteristics or functional features—makes no sense and can’t last for much longer for reasons discussed next.[26]

III.  The Practical Case against Expansion of Public Interest Regulation

Let’s look beyond these normative concerns and instead focus on the practical considerations associated with any effort to expand the horizons of public interest regulation.

A.     The Scale & Volume Problem

As the title of this particular panel quite rightly noted, we now live in an age of media and technological convergence.^[27] All bits are coming together.^[28] Because convergence is now upon us, media can be distributed instantaneously across numerous platforms. Thus, a regulatory attack on one type of media outlet or technology might necessitate an attack on many other media outlets if it has any hope of being effective.

But how will this work? If we are to achieve regulatory parity in an age of convergence, we must come to grips with the sheer scale of the task at hand. The modern mediasphere is massive—and growing rapidly. Consider some statistics about online media activity:

• 1.73 billion Internet users worldwide as of Sept 2009; an 18% increase from the previous year.^[29]
• 81.8 million .COM domain names at the end of 2009; 12.3 million .NET names & 7.8 million .ORG names.^[30]
• 234 million websites as of Dec 2009; 47 million were added in 2009.^[31] In 2006, Internet users in the United States viewed an average of 120.5 Web pages each day.^[32]
• There are roughly 26 million blogs on the Internet^[33] and even back in 2007, there were over 1.5 million new blog posts every day (17 posts per second).^[34]
• In December 2009, 86% of the total U.S. online population viewed video content.^[35] The average online viewer watched 187 videos (up 95 percent from the previous year), while the average video length viewed grew from 3.2 to 4.1 minutes.^[36] The majority of online video viewing (52%) occurred at video sites ranked outside of the top 25, suggesting the increased fragmentation of online video and the emergence of sites in the “long tail.”^[37]
• YouTube reports that 20 hours of video are uploaded to the site every minute,^[38] and 1 billion videos are served up daily by YouTube, or 12.2 billion videos viewed per month.^[39]
• For video hosting site Hulu, as of Nov 2009, 924 million videos were viewed per month in the U.S.^[40]
• Developers have created over 140,000 apps for the Apple iPhone and iPod and iPad and made them available in the Apple App Store.^[41] Customers in 77 countries can choose apps in 20 categories, and users have downloaded over three billion apps since its inception in July 2008.^[42] Apple’s iTunes Store has a catalog of 12 million songs, over 55,000 TV episodes, and 8,500 movies. It has sold more than 10 billion songs.^[43]
• Social networking giant Facebook reports that each month, its 400+ million users upload more than 3 billion photos, and create over 3.5 million events. More than 3 billion pieces of content (web links, news stories, blog posts, notes, photos, etc.) are shared each week. There are also more than 3 million active Pages on the site.^[44]
• There are 10 million edits made to Wikipedia every seven weeks.^[45]

• Twitter users send out 50 million tweets per day, an average of 600 tweets per second.^[46]
• 4 billion photos hosted by Flickr as of Oct 2009.^[47]

Even in “traditional” media sectors, the scale and volume problem is formidable: [48]

• 565 cable TV channels^[49]
• over 2,200 broadcast TV stations ^[50]
• over 13,000 broadcast radio stations ^[51]
• over 20,000 magazines ^[52]
• over 276,000 books ^[53]

In sum, the mediasphere is bigger than ever and it begs the question how the FCC plans to wrap its public interest regulatory tentacles around all of it if analog era regulations are to cover digital era content, platforms, and technologies.

B.      The Definitional Problem: Who’s Covered (or Subsidized?)

Another intractable problem associated with expansion of public interest regulation will arise once policymakers are forced to define who or what counts as a “media entity” or a “journalist” in today’s wide-open media world. And this will be a problem whether public officials are regulating media entities or subsidizing them.

For example, will bloggers be regulated or, conversely, eligible for public media subsidies? Will foreign-owned news entities be regulated or be eligible for support?  What’s the public interest standard that applies to MySpace or Facebook? Are YouTube, Hulu, and Vimeo, and Joost “just like TV stations” and, therefore, regulated like one? There may well be rational ways to make cuts along these lines, but they could raise constitutional questions. Government preferences among speakers or classes of speakers are prior restraints, constitutional sins of the highest order.

Further, it would be just these sorts of choices that would open the door to the most abusive government intrusion into the production of journalism.  It is not hard to imagine that government regulators, even with the best of intentions and acting in the utmost good faith, would, perhaps unconsciously, favor speakers and classes of speakers to whom they felt the closest affinity.  And, because Administrations come and go, as do members of Congress, no particular class of speakers would ever be truly safe — no story would be reported without at least a glance by the author over her shoulder to make sure that she had not offended the “wrong” person.  This is not an approach consistent with a free press reporting to a free people.

C.      Expanded Regulation Will Kneecap Media Providers As They Are Struggling to Reinvent Themselves

Meanwhile, this inquiry comes at a time when many traditional media providers are fighting for their very existence. Audiences are fragmenting. Advertisers are fleeing. Revenues are shrinking.  And yet, again, here we are toying with the idea of expanding regulatory burdens while the media marketplace is experiencing unprecedented upheaval and gut-wrenching creative destruction.

And if the FCC’s intends to simply continue to impose public interest regulations on the narrow set of media operations they currently control—broadcast television and radio—that’s tantamount to the FCC signing a death warrant for those media operators. But, as noted below, any proposal to “spread the pain around” by burdening everyone equally is a recipe for even greater economic catastrophe, and it wouldn’t likely pass constitutional muster in the courts anyway.

This all begs the question: Do traditional media providers really have too much power, or do they actually have too little.  Indeed, the viability of traditional media operators is increasingly in doubt since they lack pricing power and the ability to control when, where, and how their content is delivered and consumed. They no longer have protected geographic markets or “protectable scarcity.” Meanwhile, advertising—the traditional lifeblood of the media sector^[54]—is increasingly being subjected to new scrutiny and regulation here in Washington.^[55] And copyright infringement has also made monetization more challenging and placed strains on many operators.  Regardless, with traditional media operators in such serious trouble, now certainly isn’t the time to impose new rules and red tape that could hamstring their ability to respond to new competitive pressures.

Perhaps the most destructive set of ideas floating around today are those that would essentially burn the village in order to save it. For example, some regulatory advocates have toyed with ideas like “public interest vouchers,”[56] broadcast spectrum taxes,[57] expanded ownership restrictions or forced media divestiture plans,[58] or even taxes on commercial advertising,^[59] consumer electronics, cell phone providers, and ISPs.[60] In each case, the cure would be worse than the disease that ails the body. We’re not going to get a more diverse media marketplace in this country by forcing private media providers to fund their non-commercial or public-subsidized competitors.  While some of these proposals are well-intentioned and aimed at addressing perceived deficiencies in the market for “public interest” content, there are better ways for policymakers to achieve that goal.

IV.  Using Existing Public Platforms to Promote Preferred Content Through a “Public Interest Portal”

Most obviously, support for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) could be expanded. However, that should be achieved without skimming funds off of commercial advertising budgets or through “fees” on private media operators. Enhanced support for CPB and non-commercial media in general should be derived from general treasury funds, not special levies on commercial media operators.

If the FCC believes something more must be done to create—or drive citizens to—“public interest” or civic-minded content, the best approach would be for the agency to work with other federal and state entities and leverage existing government platforms and resources to accomplish this task.

Consider how federal agencies are already doing so in an effort to promote Internet safety and security. A dozen federal agencies and several private child safety organizations have collaborated^[61] to create the OnGuardOnline.gov website, which “provides practical tips from the federal government and the technology industry to help you be on guard against Internet fraud, secure your computer, and protect your personal information.”^[62] Among other things, the effort includes a “Stop-Think-Click” promotion that recommends “Seven Practices for Safer Computing.” In October 2009, OnGuardOnline also released a new online safety resource called Net Cetera: Chatting with Kids about Being Online . [63] This 54-page document, which is being widely distributed by the government (both online and offline), is an outstanding resource for parents and kids.

In a similar vein, the FCC could work with several other agencies to create a massive “Public Interest Portal” that aggregates and promotes the sort of the public interest programming and content that policymakers hope will gain more widespread distribution—whether produced by traditional programmers, niche professionals, or amateurs. The collaborating agencies might even be able to create a downloadable widget or toolbar for use on any web browser that could enable citizens to instantaneously access a wide variety of public interest content. Many organizations already offer similar portals for children’s content. (Examples include: KidZui,[64] Glubble,[65] Browser Buddy,^[66] KidRocket,^[67] KIDO’Z,^[68] Noodle Net,^[69] Hoopah Kidview Computer Explorer^[70] and Peanut Butter PC.^[71]) There’s no reason that model couldn’t be significantly expanded by the FCC and other government agencies if they put their resources behind it.

The success of this approach, of course, is by no means guaranteed since, as noted above, it is impossible to force a free people to consume content they do not demand.  Nonetheless, it would allow the government to at least accomplish the objective it has long sought to achieve through affirmative regulation of commercial media providers: increasing the availability and practical accessibility of public interest programming. Moreover, this approach would have the advantage of not raising serious constitutional objections or burdening commercial media operators with onerous new regulatory requirements or fees. If, however, policymakers reject this approach on the grounds that citizens would still “tune in” to other types of programming first, it would confirm the fundamental elitism that some of us have long suspected truly animates most “public interest” regulatory efforts.

V.    Conclusion: Regulate Up or Deregulate Down?

In light of the considerations addressed above, we must ask: To achieve regulatory parity, should we regulate up or deregulate down? To the extent that technological convergence leads to policy convergence, it should be done in the latter direction. In a world in which scarcity has been overthrown by abundance, we should strike the balance in favor of greater media freedom and stronger First Amendment protections for all speech however it is delivered. [72]

It is vital that the outmoded public interest rationales undergirding the broadcast regulatory regime be discarded, not only to spare broadcasters from more unfair, asymmetrical regulatory restrictions, but also to ensure that this contorted vision of the First Amendment is not extended to other media platforms.[73] While some policymakers and media critics propose extending the broadcast regulatory regime to cover new media outlets and digital technologies,^[74] if America is to have a consistent First Amendment in the Information Age, such efforts should be halted and the public interest regulatory regime should be relegated to the ash heap of history.

There are better ways for the Commission and Congress to accomplish “public interest” goals other than by regulating as if it’s still 1934.

[2] Glen O. Robinson, The Federal Communications Act: An Essay on Origins and Regulatory Purpose, A Legislative History of the Communications Act of 1934 3, 14 (Max D. Paglin ed., 1989). Likewise, Lawrence J. White has noted that, “The ‘public interest’ is a vague, ill-defined concept. Under the ‘public interest’ banner the Congress and the FCC have established far too many protectionist, anticompetitive, anti-innovative, inflexible, output-limiting regulatory regimes and have unnecessarily infringed on the First Amendment rights of broadcasters.” See Lawrence J. White, Spectrum for Sale, The Milken Inst. Rev. (June 2001) at 38. See also William T. Mayton, The Illegitimacy of the Public Interest Standard at the FCC, 38 Emory L. J. 715, 716 (1989).

[3] Ronald H. Coase, The Federal Communications Commission, 2 J. L. & Econ. 1, 8–9 (1959). Even supporters of broadcast regulation such as Paul Taylor and Norman Ornstein admit that, “neither in the 1927 [Radio] Act nor in the 1934 [Communications] Act, nor subsequently, did Congress define clearly what actions by broadcasters would represent managing their stations in the public interest.” Paul Taylor & Norman Ornstein, New America Foundation, A Broadcast Spectrum Fee for Campaign Finance Reform, Spectrum Series Working Paper No. 4, (2002) at 6.

[4] Ford Rowan, Broadcast Fairness (Longham, 1984), p. 39.

[5] See Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, What Unites Advocates of Speech Controls & Privacy Regulation?, Progress on Point 16.19, Aug. 11, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/2009/pop16.19-unites-speech-and-privacy-reg-advocates.pdf. On occasion, even public interest regulatory advocates have admitted this. “One of the dangers in evaluating the media in a public interest framework is that it can easily take on an elitist tone.” David Croteau and William Hoynes, The Business of Media: Corporate Media and the Public Interest (2001) at 151.

[6] Benjamin M. Compaine, The Myths of Encroaching Global Media Ownership, Open Democracy.net, Nov. 6, 2001, at 5, www.opendemocracy.net/content/articles/PDF/87.pdf

[7] See Harry Kalven, Jr., Broadcasting, Public Policy and the First Amendment, J. L. & Econ. 15, 19 (1967) (“The mandate to grant licenses that serve the public [interest]… does not constitute the FCC the moral proctor of the public or the den mother of the audience.”)

[8] Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, We Are Living in the Golden Age of Children’s Programming, Progress Snapshot 5.6, July 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2009/pdf/ps5.6-childrens-television-golden-age.pdf.

[9] Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Parental Controls and Online Child Protection: A Survey of Tools and Methods, Version 4.0 (2008) (“PFF Parental Controls Report”), www.pff.org/parentalcontrols.

[10] Comments of The Progress & Freedom Foundation and the Electronic Frontier Foundation In the Matter of Empowering Parents and Protecting Children in an Evolving Media Landscape, Federal Communications Commission, MB Docket No. 09-194, Feb 24, 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/filings/2010/2010-02-24-PFF-EFF_Response_to_FCC_Empowering_Parents_Protecting_Children_NOI_MB_09-194.pdf; Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Comments in the Matter of Implementation of the Child Safe Viewing Act; Examination of Parental Control Technologies for Video or Audio Programming, Federal Communications Commission, MB Docket No. 09-26, April 15, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/filings/2009/041509-%5BFCC-FILING%5D-Adam-Thierer-PFF-re-FCC-Child-Safe-Viewing-Act-NOI-%28MB-09-26%29.pdf.

[11] The number of channels available on multichannel video distribution platforms skyrocketed from just 70 in 1990 to 565 in 2006, the last year for which the FCC has released data. Federal Communications Commission, Thirteenth Annual Video Competition Report, MB Docket No. 06-189, Nov. 27, 2007, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-07-206A1.pdf.

[12] For an up-to-date list, see National Cable & Telecommunications Association, Cable Networks, www.ncta.com/Organizations.aspx?type=orgtyp2&contentId=2907, or Wikipedia, List of United States Cable and Satellite Television Networks,  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cable_and_satellite_television_networks.

[13] All C-SPAN data confirmed by Peter Kiley, Vice President, C-SPAN Networks. Also see: Marking 30 Years. Covering Washington Like No Other, www.c-span.org/30Years/default.aspx.

[14] www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary

[15] Ellen P. Goodman, “Proactive Media Policy in an Age of Content Abundance,” in Philip M. Napoli, ed., Media Diversity and Localism: Meaning and Metrics (2007) at 370, 374.  And there is no reason to believe this situation has ever been different or will ever change. Writing in 1922, famed journalist Walter Lippmann noted that, “it is possible to make a rough estimate only of the amount of attention people give each day to informing themselves about public affairs,” but “the time each day is small when any of us is directly exposed to information from our unseen environment.” Walter Lippmann, Public Opinion (1922), p. 53, 57.

[16] Id., at 374.

[17] Among the expanded public interest responsibilities regulatory advocates promote: Controls on speech (indecent or “excessively violent” content); expanding coverage of political campaigns, debates and developments; free (or lower-cost) campaign ad time; expanded “educational” or cultural programming (especially aimed at children); and expanded coverage of community affairs and public service announcements.

[18] See Randolph J. May, The Public Interest Standard: Is It Too Indeterminate to Be Constitutional? 53 Fed. Comm. L. Jour. (May 2001) at 427-68, www.law.indiana.edu/fclj/pubs/v53/no3/may.pdf.

[19] Jonathan Emord, Freedom, Technology and the First Amendment (1991).

[20] Miami Herald v. Tornillo, 418 U.S. 241(1974).

[21] Even FCC officials have acknowledged this. See John W. Berresford, Federal Communications Commission, The Scarcity Rationale for Regulating Traditional Broadcasting: An Idea Whose Time Has Passed, FCC Media Bureau Staff Research Paper No. 2005-2, (March 2005) www.fcc.gov/ownership/materials/already-released/scarcity030005.pdf. Berresford refers to the scarcity rationale as “outmoded,” “based on fundamental misunderstandings of physics and economics,” and “no longer valid.”

[22] See Adam Thierer and Grant Eskelsen, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Metrics: The True State of the Modern Media Marketplace (Summer 2008), www.pff.org/mediametrics; Adam Thierer, The Media Cornucopia, 17 City Journal 2 (Spring 2007) at 84-89, www.city-journal.org/html/17_2_media.html.

[23] See Benjamin M. Compaine, The Media Monopoly Myth: How New Competition is Expanding Our Sources of Information and Entertainment, New Millennium Research Council (2005) www.newmillenniumresearch.org/archive/Final_Compaine_Paper_050205.pdf.

[24] Reno v. American Civil Liberties Union, 521 US 844, 874 (1997); American Civil Liberties Union v. Gonzales, 478 F.Supp.2d 775, 795 (E.D.Pa. 2007).

[25] See, e.g., Video Software Dealers Association v. Schwarzenegger, 556 F.3d 950, 965-967 (9th Cir. 2009); Entertainment Software Ass’n v. Blagojevich, 469 F.3d 641, 652 (7th Cir. 2006); Interactive Digital Software Association, et. al. v. St. Louis County, et. al., 329 F.3d 954 (8 Cir. 2003); American Amusement Machine Association, et al. v. Kendrick, et al., 244 F.3d 572 (7th Cir. 2001); Entertainment Software Ass’n v. Granholm, 426 F Supp 2d 646 (E.D. Mich. 2006); Video Software Dealers Association, et. al. v. Maleng, et. al., 325 F. Supp.2d 1180 (W.D. Wa. 2004).  See generally Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Fact and Fiction in the Debate Over Video Game Regulation, Progress on Point 13.7, March 2006, at 13-18 www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/pop13.7videogames.pdf (discussing cases striking down state video game laws); Henry Cohen, Constitutionality of Proposals to Prohibit the Sale or Rental to Minors of Video Games with Violent or Sexual Content or Strong Language, Congressional Research Service, U.S. Library of Congress (Jan. 12, 2006), http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metacrs9144/m1/1/high_res_d/.

[26] Adam Thierer, Why Regulate Broadcasting : Toward a Consistent First Amendment Standard for the Information Age, Catholic University Law School, 15 CommLaw Conspectus (Summer 2007) at 431-482; http://commlaw.cua.edu/articles/v15/15_2/Thierer.pdf. Randy May as referred to these artificial distinctions as “techno-functional constructs.” Randolph J. May, Charting a New Constitutional Jurisprudence for the Digital Age, Engage (Oct. 2008) at 109.

[27] Henry Jenkins, founder and director of the MIT Comparative Media Studies Program and author of Convergence Culture: Where Old and New Media Collide, defines convergence as “the flow of content across multiple media platforms, the cooperation between multiple media industries, and the migratory behavior of media audiences who will go almost anywhere in search of the kinds of entertainment experiences they want.” Henry Jenkins, Convergence Culture: Where Old and New Media Collide (2006) at 2.

[28] Nicholas Negroponte, Being Digital (1995).

[29] Royal Pingdom, Internet 2009 in Numbers, Jan. 22, 2010, http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/01/22/internet-2009-in-numbers.

[30] Id.

[31] Id.

[32] Gavin O’Malley, Comcast Taps Hispanic Web Portal, MediaPost News, Online Media Daily, March 8, 2006, www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=40714

[33] Royal Pingdom, supra 29.

[34] David Sifry, The State of the Live Web, April 2007, www.sifry.com/alerts/archives/000493.html

[35] comScore, The 2009 U.S. Digital Year in Review – A Recap of the Year in Digital Marketing 10, Feb. 2010, http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/2/comScore_Releases_2009_U.S._Digital_Year_in_Review.

[36] Id.

[37] Id. at 12.

[38] Ryan Junee, Zoinks! 20 Hours of Video Uploaded Every Minute!, Broadcasting Ourselves: The Official YouTube Blog, May 20, 2009, http://youtube-global.blogspot.com/2009/05/zoinks-20-hours-of-video-uploaded-every_20.html

[39] Royal Pingdom, supra 29.

[40] Royal Pingdom, supra 29.

[41] Apple, 140,000 apps at your fingertips. From day one., www.apple.com/ipad/app-store.

[42] Press Release, Apple, Apple’s App Store Downloads Top Three Billion (Jan. 5, 2010), www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/01/05appstore.html.

[43] Press Release, Apple, iTunes Store Tops 10 Billion Songs Sold (Feb. 25, 2010), www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/02/25itunes.html.

[44] Facebook, Statistics, www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics (last accessed Mar. 2, 2010).

[45] Katalaveno, Edit growth measured in time between every 10,000,000^th edit, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Katalaveno/TBE (last accessed Mar. 2, 2010).

[46] Twitter Blog, Measuring Tweets, Feb. 22, 2010, http://blog.twitter.com/2010/02/measuring-tweets.html.

[47] Royal Pingdom, supra 29.

[48] Statistics derived from various sources, but all can be found in Adam Thierer and Grant Eskelsen, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Metrics: The True State of the Modern Media Marketplace (Summer 2008), www.pff.org/mediametrics.

[49] Federal Communications Commission, Thirteenth Annual Video Competition Report, MB Docket No. 06-189, Nov. 27, 2007, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-07-206A1.pdf.

[50] Central Intelligence Agency, The World Fact Book, United States, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html (data is from 2006).

[51] Id.

[52] Magazine Publishers of America, Magazines: The Medium of Action, A Comprehensive Guide and Handbook 2009/10, at 8, www.magazine.org/ASSETS/088C8564EB9E4E978A69B183881AEF58/MPA-Handbook-2009.pdf.

[53] Bowker, Bowker Reports U.S. Book Production Flat in 2007, May 28, 2008, www.bowker.com/index.php/press-releases/526.

[54] “Advertising is the mother’s milk of all the mass media,” Wall Street Journal technology columnist Walt Mossberg has noted. Walter Mossberg, Now You See ‘Em…, SmartMoney.com, June 15, 2000, available at http://web.archive.org/web/20061124235126/http://www.smartmoney.com/mossberg/index.cfm?story=20000615; And Harold L. Vogel, author of Entertainment Industry Economics, the definitive textbook for media market analysts, has noted, “Advertising is the key common ingredient in the tactics and strategies of all entertainment and media company business models. Indeed, it might further be said that advertising has substantively subsidized the production and delivery of news and entertainment throughout the last century.” Harold L. Vogel, Entertainment Industry Economics (Cambridge University Press, 7^th Edition, 2007) at 46.

[55] Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka, The Hidden Benefactor: How Advertising Informs, Educates & Benefits Consumers, Feb. 22, 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2010/ps6.5-the-hidden-benefactor.html; Berin Szoka & Adam Thierer, Targeted Online Advertising: What’s the Harm & Where Are We Heading?, Progress on Point 16.2, April 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/2009/pop16.2targetonlinead.pdf; Berin Szoka & Adam Thierer, Behavioral Advertising Industry Practices Hearing: Some Issues that Need to be Discussed, PFF Blog, June 18, 2009, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2009/06/behavioral_advertising_industry_practices_hearing.html

[56] For example, Robert McChesney and John Nichols advocate a “Citizenship News Voucher” that would give every American adult a $200 voucher to donate money to the non-profit news medium of their choice. Of course, a number of restrictions would apply to eligible entities, including a ban on accepting advertising as a condition of receiving support from the program. Robert W. McChesney & John Nichols, The Death and Life of American Journalism (2010) at 201-6.

[57] For a recent debate on the question of broadcast spectrum taxes, see: Resolved, Broadcasters Should be Charged a Spectrum Fee to Finance Programming in the Public Interest, Pro: Norm Ornstein, Con: Adam Thierer, in Richard J. Ellis and Michael Nelson, Debating Reform: Conflicting Perspectives on How to Fix the American Political System (2010) at 53-69. Also see McChesney & Nichols, supra 56 at 209-10.

[58] For example, Free Press calls for “government incentives to encourage local ownership and media divestiture.” They want to prevent private media operators from attaining greater scale at the exact time they probably need to do so. Instead, they would subsidize those media entities who went non-commercial and disaggregated to become more atomistic. Comments of Free Press In the Matter of News Media Workshops: From Town Crier to Bloggers: How Will Journalism Survive the Internet Age? Federal Trade Commission, Project No. P091200, Nov. 6, 2009, at 21, www.ftc.gov/os/comments/newsmediaworkshop/544505-00027.pdf.

[59] Free Press advocates channeling more money to public media by affixing “a small tax” on private commercial advertising. Comments of Free Press In the Matter of News Media Workshops: From Town Crier to Bloggers: How Will Journalism Survive the Internet Age? Federal Trade Commission, Project No. P091200, Nov. 6, 2009, at 18, www.ftc.gov/os/comments/newsmediaworkshop/544505-00027.pdf.

[60] McChesney & Nichols, supra 56 at 210-11. They advocate a 5% tax on consumer electronics and a 3% tax on monthly cell phone bills to channel money into a massive new “public works” program for the press.

[61] www.onguardonline.gov/about-us/overview.aspx

[62] www.onguardonline.gov/default.aspx

[63] www.onguardonline.gov/pdf/tec04.pdf

[64] www.kidzui.com

[65] www.glubble.com

[66] www.buddybrowser.com

[67] http://kidrocket.org

[68] www.kidoz.net

[69] www.noodlenet.com

[70] www.hoopah.com

[71] www.peanutbuttersoftware.com

[72] Brian C. Anderson & Adam D. Thierer, A Manifesto for Media Freedom (2008).

[73] See Adam Thierer, Why Regulate Broadcasting : Toward a Consistent First Amendment Standard for the Information Age, Catholic University Law School, 15 CommLaw Conspectus (Summer 2007) at 431-482; http://commlaw.cua.edu/articles/v15/15_2/Thierer.pdf; Adam Thierer, FCC v. Fox and the Future of the First Amendment in the Information Age, Engage (Feb. 2009) www.fed-soc.org/doclib/20090216_ThiererEngage101.pdf.

[74] See Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Thinking Seriously about Cable and Satellite Censorship: An Informal Analysis of S. 616, The Rockefeller-Hutchison Bill (2005) www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/pop12.6CableCensorship.pdf; Robert Corn-Revere, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Can Broadcast Indecency Regulations Be Extended to Cable Television and Satellite Radio? (2005) www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/pop12.8indecency.pdf.

Adam Thierer (PFF) Remarks at FCC Hearing on Public Interest in Digital Era (3-4-10) http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf

I testified this morning in the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s Subcommittee on Communications, Technology, and the Internet at a hearing titled, “An Examination of the Proposed Combination of Comcast and NBC Universal.” Among those testifying were Comcast Chairman and CEO Brian L. Roberts, and NBC Universal President and CEO Jeff Zucker.  Down below I have attached my brief remarks (we only had 5 minutes), but see the Scribd doc at the very bottom to also see the embedded charts. I also wrote a paper about the proposed deal back in December entitled, “A Brief History of Media Merger Hysteria: From AOL-Time Warner to Comcast-NBC” as well as this editorial for Forbes.

____________

Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee, thank you for inviting me here today. My name is Adam Thierer and I am the President of The Progress & Freedom Foundation (PFF).

Although we are still early in this process, there has already been a great deal of hand-wringing and even some dire predictions about the pending merger of Comcast and NBC Universal. I hope to put this proposed marriage in some historical context and explain why the deal certainly won’t have the detrimental impact some critics fear, and also explain why it might even be one potential model for how to sustain traditional media going forward.

Beware Media Merger Hysteria

First, let’s remember that we’ve been here before. Paranoid predictions of a media apocalypse have accompanied the announcements of many previous media mergers, from AOL-Time Warner to News Corp.-DirecTV to XM-Sirius.[i] In these cases and almost all others, however, the “sky is falling” claims proved to be greatly overstated.[ii] The only “harm” that one could reasonably claim came from those mergers was not to consumers or content providers, but to the merging firms themselves and their shareholders. That’s because many mergers simply fail to create the sort of synergies and benefits originally hoped for and consequently die of natural causes over time.

Other firms, however, have found ways to make deals work and deliver important new services that previously were unimaginable or simply too expensive to offer alone.[iii] Regardless, the point here is that we’ll never know what works unless we permit marketplace experimentation with new and innovative business models.

“Gatekeeper” Myths: Why Restricting Content Options is Economic Suicide

Second, the fear that Comcast-NBCU will act as a “gatekeeper” over video content is also largely overblown—especially in light of the preemptive concessions they have already made on program access and carriage. But it’s important to realize that the merger will only marginally affect vertical integration in the cable marketplace. Currently, the percentage of cable channels owned by video distributors is in the single digits, and even after this merger it will only be in the teens.[iv] (See Exhibit 1) Stated differently, the vast majority of cable channels will be independent of Comcast-NBCU control.

More importantly, it’s hard to believe the new firm would restrict its content to just Comcast-owned distribution networks since they would be losing the eyeballs, advertisers, and revenues that would accompany the carriage of their content on other video platforms. Likewise, it would make little sense for the firm to block new or competing channels on their own platform since they would incur the wrath of the programmers and the viewing public alike. And those channels will likely quickly find a home elsewhere, which could incentivize subscribers to switch video service providers. (See Exhibits 2-6)

Indeed, the great thing about the modern media marketplace is that there is always another place for consumers to turn to find what they want. Comcast faces increasingly robust competition in the video programming marketplace from satellite and telco providers, as well as from Internet-based video providers.^[v] (See Exhibit 7) And NBC Universal’s stable of programming, while impressive, is a mere trickle in an ocean of content that consumers can choose from.^[vi]

Meanwhile, many consumers are increasingly “cutting the cable cord” altogether and instead getting the video they want from a bewildering array of online video services.[vii] Netflix, Hulu, Joost, Roku, Apple, the Sony PlayStation Store, the Microsoft Xbox store, and others offer traditional TV fare while sites like YouTube, Vimeo and Justin.TV offer a mix of professional and amateur content.

In sum, there has never been so much competition for our eyes and ears, and audiences and advertising dollars have become increasingly fragmented as a result.[viii] (See Exhibits 8-10)

What Future for Broadcasting & Local News in Turbulent Times?

Finally, we need to realize that the ongoing digital revolution is upending many traditional media business models—especially advertising supported over-the-air broadcasting—and that alliances like Comcast-NBCU may be one blueprint for how traditional media operators can evolve and compete going forward.  With both the FCC and FTC currently investigating whether journalism is in trouble and what it might take to “save the news,” many media economists and industry analysts seem to agree that at least some degree of consolidation or collaboration might be necessary.

Consider last week’s news that NBC Universal saw quarterly profits plunge by a whopping 30% in the fourth quarter of 2009.[ix] This is indicative of the general downturn the entire media sector has been experiencing as of late.  Why not then let Comcast help NBCU try to get back on track rather than force them to make it on their own in a radically uncertain future?  And it goes without saying that Comcast might be better positioned to protect NBC Universal’s copyrighted content from digital piracy, at least over its own pipes.

Those who are concerned about the future of broadcasting and local news should remember that news—and local broadcast news in particular—isn’t cheap. Unless we want to embark on a massive government subsidization scheme to bailout traditional media providers, Congress and regulatory officials must be willing to grant private media operators the flexibility to restructure their business affairs so they can continue to provide important public needs while also turning a profit.[x] That can’t happen unless we allow media markets to evolve and let operators experiment with new business models and ownership structures.[xi] Although there are no guarantees, creator/distributor alliances like Comcast-NBCU may be one model that helps firms create, extend, and then also monetize their media content.  But, again, regulatory flexibility is crucial so we can figure out what works and what doesn’t.

Thank you again for inviting me here to testify.

[ii] Adam Thierer, A Media Morality Play, Forbes, Dec. 15, 2009, www.forbes.com/2009/12/14/media-merger-antitrust-opinions-contributors-adam-thierer.html

[iii] A good example: Disney’s seamless and successful integration of ABC Television Group (ABC + Disney cable properties), Walt Disney Studios, the Walt Disney Internet Group, its many ESPN properties, and its parks and resorts.

[iv] 2006 is the last for which the FCC has made data available, but as of that time the overall number of national programming networks available in America stood at 565 channels. That is up from just 70 channels in 1990, an astonishing increase in program choices.  The FCC noted that, “Of the 565 networks, 84 (14.9 percent) were vertically integrated, or affiliated, with at least one cable operator.” Federal Communications Commission, FCC Adopts 13^th Annual Report to Congress on Video Competition and Notice of Inquiry for the 14^thAnnual Report, Nov. 27, 2007, at 4, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-278454A1.pdf What that summary fails to mention, however, is that vertical integration has fallen steadily since the FCC’s first Annual Video Competition Report was issued, when over 50 percent of all channels were affiliated with a cable operator. Indeed, the video marketplace exhibits less vertical integration than ever before. As far as vertically integrated industries go, no impartial observer would conclude that this industry is being controlled by “gatekeeper,” pay TV platforms, as some critics suggest. Most new pay TV channels today are independently owned and offer an unprecedented diversity of programming options. This trend is a strong sign of how healthy and vibrantly competitive this marketplace is today. Finally, these numbers do not take into account the split between Time Warner Entertainment and Time Warner Cable, which represented a significant portion of the 15% of vertically owned channels before 2006. That is the percentage of cable channels owned by video distributors is in the single digits today.

[v] Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Video Competition in a Digital Age, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Communications, Technology and the Internet, U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Oct. 22, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/testimony/2009/10-22-09-thierer-testimony-video-competition-digital-age.pdf

[vi] Adam Thierer, The Media Cornucopia, City Journal, Vol. 17, No. 2, Spring 2007, at 84-89, www.city-journal.org/html/17_2_media.html

[vii] See generally The Progress & Freedom Foundation, “Cutting the Video Cord,” PFF Blog Ongoing Series, http://blog.pff.org/archives/ongoing_series/cutting_the_video_cord/

[viii] Adam Thierer and Grant Eskelsen, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Metrics: The True State of the Modern Media Marketplace, PFF Special Report, Summer 2008), www.pff.org/mediametrics

[ix] David B. Wilkerson, NBC Quarterly Profit Plunges 30%, MarketWatch, Jan. 22, 2010.

[x] W. Kenneth Ferree, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Another Naïve Proposal for Government Entanglement with the Fourth Estate, PFF Blog, Feb. 1, 2010, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2010/02/another_naive_proposal_for_government_entanglement.html;  Adam Thierer, Socializing Media in Order to Save It, City Journal, March 27, 2009, www.city-journal.org/2009/eon0327at.html; Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Public Option for Press Should Get the Red Pen, Progress Snapshot 6.4, Jan. 25, 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2010/ps6.4-OP-ED-for-Daily-Caller-A-Public-Option-for-the-Press.html

[xi] W. Kenneth Ferree, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Ownership Proceedings, Testimony before the Federal Communications Commission, Nov. 3, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/testimony/2009/11-03-09-ferree-media-ownership-testimony.pdf; Adam Thierer, Media Myths: Making Sense of the Debate over Media Ownership (The Progress & Freedom Foundation, 2005), www.pff.org/issues-pubs/books/050610mediamyths.pdf

Testimony of Adam Thierer – House Hearing about Comcast-NBC Merger 2-4-10 http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf

Free Press, the radical regulatory activist group founded by Marxist media scholar Robert W. McChesney, has never seen a media or technology regulation they don’t like, but their latest effort to have the feds halt innovation is shocking even by their standards. According to The Washington Post:

Free Press and other public advocacy groups are sending letters Monday to the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission calling for a probe of the “TV Everywhere” plan by cable, satellite and phone companies that brings television shows and movies to computers and devices, but only for those that subscribe to both television and high-speed Internet services.

Think about this. “TV Everywhere” is still in its cradle, having only just been launched recently. It will give multichannel video distributors a chance to find their footing as millions of consumers continue to “cut the video cord.”  And it would provide consumers with ubiquitous access to content over the Internet while also ensuring that content creators are compensated for their programming.

OK, so what’s wrong with all this again? Why would we want federal antitrust officials throw a wrecking ball into this innovative new business model?

What’s so galling about this is that Free Press and these other “media reformista” groups are constantly harping about how struggling media operators need to “change their business models,” and yet those groups would tie the hands of media creators and distributors at every juncture. No liberalization of old rules would be allowed if Free Press had their way, and new regulations would be layered on prophylactically to disallow any future marketplace evolution or innovation.

So, what is the Free Press alternative if no private restructuring or innovation is to be allowed?  Can you say “public option for the press“? Free Press has proposed an industrial policy for journalism and for “saving the news” that includes over $50 billion in subsidies for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and other bureaucracies, a “journalism jobs program” for that would be part of AmeriCorps, a variety of new tax incentives for struggling media operations or individuals who support favored institutions, and an assortment of government incentives to encourage local ownership and media divestiture (by handing over control to smaller operators or minority-owned groups). And in an essay Robert McChesney penned with John Nichols of The Nation last year, the price tag for their proposed “press infrastructure project” was over $60 billion.

Hmmm, let’s see… we could spend $50-$60 billion for a state-subsidized press, or we could allow private marketplace experimentation with innovative new media business models.  I would hope the choice would be an easy one.

PFF has just released the transcript of an excellent panel discussion I moderated last week entitled, “Let’s Make a Deal: Broadcasters, Mobile Broadband, and a Market in Spectrum.”  As I’ve mentioned here before, one of the hottest issues in DC right now is the question of broadcast TV spectrum reallocation.  Blair Levin, who serves as the Executive Director of the Omnibus Broadband Initiative at the Federal Communications Commission, recently raised the possibility of reallocating a portion of broadcast television spectrum for alternative purposes, namely, mobile broadband. Such a “cash-for-spectrum” swap would give mobile broadband providers to spectrum they need to roll out next generation wireless broadband networks while making sure broadcaster receive compensation for any spectrum they hand over.  The FCC just recently released a public notice on “Data Sought on Users of Spectrum,” (NBP Public Notice # 26) that looks into the matter. “This inquiry,” the agency says,” takes into account the value that the United States puts on free, over-the-air television, while also exploring market-based mechanisms for television broadcasters to contribute to the broadband effort any spectrum in excess of that which they need to meet their public interest obligations and remain financially viable.” Meanwhile, the House Energy and Commerce Communications Subcommittee is set to hold a hearing on the issue next Tuesday.

PFF’s panel discussion on this issue featured an all-star cast of characters, including opening remarks by Blair Levin, and a terrific discussion ensued. [You can hear the full audio from the event here.]  Down below I have highlighted some of the major points each speaker made during the discussion and also embedded the complete transcript in a Scribd reader.  Also, just a reminder that my PFF colleague Barbara Esbin and I authored a short paper on this issue recently: “An Offer They Can’t Refuse: Spectrum Reallocation That Can Benefit Consumers, Broadcasters & the Mobile Broadband Sector.”

• Blair Levin, Executive Director of the FCC’s Omnibus Broadband Initiative, began the discussion by describing how additional spectrum will be needed to expand wireless broadband and why spectrum currently held by broadcasters would be a good option.  In addition to identifying spectrum that has the technical qualities to support broadband, he explained, “You also would look at things like where there’s an economic gap between the current use and potential wireless use.  You would want to look at bands where maybe there are regulations which constrain the market mechanism.  You also might want to look at bands where you can have a meaningful reallocation of spectrum while, nonetheless, preserving current uses.”
• Coleman Bazelon, Principal at The Brattle Group, presented findings from his recent paper on the value of spectrum currently held by broadcasters if it was reallocated to commercial mobile or wireless broadband uses. “This analysis shows that there are significant gains from reallocating the broadcast band, and I think the takeaway should be that there are significant gains, not that its $42 billion or $51 billion, but that its tens and tens of billions of dollars,” Bazelon stated.
• David Donovan, President of the Association for Maximum Service Television, Inc., questioned the estimates of the additional value of broadcast spectrum that could be gained if it was auctioned for other uses.  “If you are valuing over the air television broadcasting and its importance to the American public, using a snapshot based on an auction valuation at a particular point in time is really highly inappropriate,” he stated. “The business model of broadcasting is heavily regulated. … and that defines, of course, the value, just like heavy zoning defines the price of land.”
• Kostas Liopiros, Principal of The Sun Fire Group, discussed the technical feasibility of using various blocks of spectrum for wireless broadband use.  “Only additional spectrum can produce the required gains of capacity in the future, but if the gains capacities are oriented towards wireless broadband, for national wireless broadband capability, you need to focus on the right type of spectrum,” he explained.
• John Hane, Counsel in the Communications Practice Group of Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP, warned of the legal difficulties of modifying broadcast licenses.  “Extinguishing licenses requires a hearing, potentially hundreds of them, each one affecting one or more Congressional districts.”  Although the FCC is able to modify a license without the licensee’s consent, he continued, “that is a very long and complicated process with an uncertain time frame.  If there really is a spectrum crisis, the stick approach …is not going to solve it very fast.”
• Paul Gallant, Senior Vice President of Concept Capital, discussed the possible effects of Congress involvement in auction of broadcast spectrum.  If broadcasters are reluctant to modifying their business model, Gallant explained, it might be beneficial for them to have Congress involved in such a deal.  However, he warned that Congressional involvement could also result in uncertainty for the broadcasters.  “It is not clear, if Congress does pass a bill, whether broadcasters come out better or worse than they would if they had worked something out with the FCC.  The main reason is there is tremendous budget pressure in Congress today.  They are looking for new sources of revenue,” Gallant explained.
• Andrew Jay Schwartzman, President and CEO of Media Access Project, expressed that he was resistant to the idea of auctioning spectrum.  “It isn’t property,” He stated.  “They favor incumbents.  They’re rigged.  They don’t generate the revenues that OMB and Congress seem to think they will.” He also warned of the possible impact of auctions on innovation. “Auctions lock in existing technology and near-term foreseeable technology. The people who are able and willing to bid are basing it on technology that they know they can generate and that does not allow the spectrum to be used in better ways coming down the road.”

Transcript of Dec 1 PFF Event on Broadcaster TV Spectrum Reallocation [PFF – Thierer] http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=23980532&access_key=key-wdpoolnrm5gxq1xu7c6&page=1&version=1&viewMode=list

I’ve just released a new PFF white paper looking at the hysteria that has often accompanied major media mergers and then taking a look at the marketplace reality years after the fact.  Here‘s the PDF, but I have also pasted the entire thing down below.

_____________________________

A Brief History of Media Merger Hysteria: From AOL-Time Warner to Comcast-NBC

by Adam Thierer

Although the pending union of Comcast and NBC Universal has not yet made it to the altar, Chicken Little-esque wails about the marriage have already begun in earnest. For example, the pro-regulatory media organization Free Press has already set up a website to complain about the deal.[1] And Jeff Chester, executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy, has called it “an unholy marriage.”[2] The fever only promises to spread once the deal is formally announced, and a lengthy fight over the deal is expected at the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and whichever antitrust agency reviews the deal.[3]

But reality tends to play out somewhat less dramatically than the script penned by the media worrywarts. It’s worth looking back at some of the more prominent examples of media merger hysteria in recent years to understand why such panic is unwarranted, and why a deal between Comcast and NBC Universal is unlikely to lead to the sort of problems that the pessimists suggest.[4]

AOL-Time Warner: From the “New Totalitarianism” to Digital Divorce Court in Less Than a Decade

When the mega-merger between media giant Time Warner and Internet superstar AOL was announced in early 2000, the marriage was greeted with a cacophony of righteous indignation and apocalyptic predictions.  When referring to the dangers of the deal, syndicated columnist Norman Solomon, a longtime associate of the media watch group Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting, summoned the ghost of Aldous Huxley when he and referred to the transaction in terms of “servitude,” “ministries of propaganda,” and “new totalitarianisms.”[5] Similarly, USC Professor of Communications Robert Scheer wondered if the merger represented “Big Brother” and claimed, “Diversity is out, niches are gone, it’s Skippy peanut butter time. AOL is the Levitown of the Internet, mom and apple pie, ‘50s boredom, conformity and dullness as a virtue: A Net nanny reigning in potentially restless souls.”[6]

Such pessimistic predictions proved wildly overblown. To say that the merger failed to create the sort of synergies (and profits) that were originally hoped for would be an epic understatement.[7] The titles of two popular books about the deal summed up the firm’s troubles: One was entitled Fools Rush In (by Nina Munk) and the other, There Must Be a Pony in Here Somewhere (by Kara Swisher and Lisa Dickey).[8]

The numbers were mind-boggling. By April 2002, just two years after the deal was struck, AOL-Time Warner had already reported a staggering $54 billion loss.^[9] By January 2003, losses had grown to $99 billion.^[10] By September 2003, Time Warner decided to drop AOL from its name altogether and the deal continued to slowly unravel from there.^[11] In a 2006 interview with the Wall Street Journal, Time Warner President Jeffrey Bewkes famously declared the death of “synergy” and went so far as to call synergy “bullsh*t”!^[12] In early 2008, Time Warner decided to shed AOL’s dial-up service^[13] and now is set to spin off AOL entirely.[14] Looking back at the deal, Fortune magazine senior editor at large Allan Sloan called it the “turkey of the decade”:

The day the deal was announced, Jan. 10, 2000, Time Warner closed at the equivalent of $184.50 a share. After almost 10 years of travail, the $184.50 has shrunk to about $42.25, consisting of one Time Warner share and a quarter of a Time Warner Cable share. The 77 percent decline is triple the decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index over the same period.[15]

And the Time Warner-AOL split wasn’t the end of this messy divorce process. In 2008, Time Warner Cable and Time Warner Entertainment decided to split.^[16] Time Warner has even spun off some of its oldest properties. In 2006, it announced that it was putting 18 of the 50 magazines in its Time magazine division up for sale.^[17]

As is always the case, these divestitures and down-sizing efforts garnered little attention compared with the hullaballoo and hysteria that accompanied the announcement of the deal back in 2000.^[18]

News Corp/DirecTV: Murdoch’s “Digital Death Star” Blows Up

No media industry personality attracts more attention (or angst) than News Corp. Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch. The popular leftist blog The Daily Kos has likened him to “a fascist Hitler antichrist.”[19] And CNN founder Ted Turner once compared the popularity of the News Corp.’s Fox News Channel to the rise of Adolf Hitler prior to World War II.^[20] Alternatively, Murdoch has been accused of being a Marxist.[21] Meanwhile, Karl Frisch, a Senior Fellow at Media Matters for America, speaks of Murdoch’s “evil empire”^[22] and a recent MSNBC poll has asked people to vote on the question: “Is Rupert Murdoch evil?”[23] In 2003, when asked by talk show host Chris Matthews, “Would you break up [News Corp.-owned] Fox?” then Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean answered, “On ideological grounds, absolutely yes.”^[24] And in their book Our Media, Not Theirs, John Nichols and Robert McChesney took the Murdoch-as-evil-overlord storyline to its logical extreme when they suggested Hollywood was on to something by scripting a media tycoon like Murdoch as the bad guy in a James Bond movie: “No wonder conspiracy theories are so popular in America; no wonder, when the makers of James Bond movies look for believable villains these days, they eschew Eurotrash bad guys for more credibly threatening villains such as the Rupert Murdoch-like media baron of 1997’s Tomorrow Never Dies.”^[25]

These Murdochian fears came to a head in 2003 when News Corp. announced it was pursuing a takeover of satellite television operator DirecTV.  Paranoid predictions of a pending media apocalypse followed.  A group of regulatory activists filed joint comments to the FCC claiming that if News Corp. and DirecTV were allowed to merge, “the result will be unprecedented concentration within all aspects of the television marketplace, as well as increased prices for consumers of cable and satellite television.”[26] Similarly, then-FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein worried that the deal would “result in unprecedented control over local and national media properties in one global media empire. Its shockwaves will undoubtedly recast our entire media landscape.” He continued; “With this unprecedented combination, News Corp. could be in a position to raise programming prices for consumers, harm competition in video programming and distribution markets nationwide, and decrease the diversity of media voices.”[27]

Not to be outdone, full-time media fussbudget Jeff Chester predicted that Murdoch would use this “Digital Death Star” as the base of a nefarious scheme to conquer the media universe:

Murdoch will use DirecTV as a ‘death star’ to force his programming on cable companies by threatening a price war unless they give Fox favorable access. Since News Corp will control cable TV’s principal multichannel competitor, it will easily create new channels—unlike anyone else in the TV business.  Rather than engage in open combat and competition, cable powerbrokers such as Comcast and AOL-Time Warner will likely accommodate Murdoch and add his new channels to their own services. Imagine Fox News on steroids. Worse, with DirecTV’s capacity to ‘spotbeam’ channels to serve distinct communities, localized versions of Fox programs could be available in major cities across the nation.[28]

Imagine the horror of new, “spotbeamed” local media competition!  However, unlike the destruction of the planet Alderaan by the Death Star in Star Wars,[29] no one was harmed in the making of the News Corp-DirecTV marriage.  Indeed, the rebels would get the best of Darth Murdoch since his “Digital Death Star” was abandoned just three years after construction.  In December 2006, News Corp. decided to divest the company to Liberty Media Corporation in an effort to win back more controlling News Corp. stock.^[30]

Ironically, many of the same groups that had vociferously protested the original News Corp-DirecTV deal again found reason to complain when the deal was being undone! The FCC’s failure to implement various restrictions as part of the license transfer, they claimed, would “result in continuing control by News Corp. over content distribution, harming competition in both the programming and distribution markets, reducing consumer choice and raising cable prices.”^[31] Unsurprisingly, little mention was made of the previous round of pessimistic predictions or whether there had ever been any merit to the lugubrious lamentations of the media critics.

Sirius-XM: “Merger to Monopoly” or Prelude to Bankruptcy?

Some of the most entertaining and wrong-headed predictions about the future of the media marketplace often come from media moguls themselves. For example, back in 2003, when he was still President and Chief Operating Officer of Viacom, Mel Karmazin said in reference to Microsoft, AOL Time Warner, and Comcast: “I can’t imagine being a competitor with any of these guys.”[32] Just six years later, however, plenty of others are competing with those companies. Microsoft finds itself in a heated war with Google on all fronts, AOL-Time Warner has fallen apart, and Comcast is squaring off against telco (e.g., Verizon’s FiOS and AT&T U-Verse) and online video competitors (e.g., YouTube, Hulu) that were unfathomable in 2003—not to mention the traditional satellite TV competitors they still face. Meanwhile, Karmazin abandoned Viacom and is now struggling to find a way to make subscription-based satellite radio survive the ongoing digital music bloodbath caused by the rise of online music services and a little thing called the iPod.

Of course, hysteria ran rampant when Sirius and XM were merging, too.  Critics called it a “merger to monopoly” and predicted a variety of coming calamities.[33] National Association of Broadcasters Vice President Dennis Wharton described the merger as a “monopoly platform for offensive programming” that would be “anti-consumer.”^[34] Mr. Wharton later remarked that the merged firms “will raise prices, won’t improve their technology and will limit their offerings.”^[35] A coalition of six non-profits claimed that the merger was “perhaps the worst offense against the basic principle that competition is the consumer’s best friend” and, if approved, “a tsunami of mergers could ripple through the digital space at the worst possible moment.”^[36] They predicted that “once the competition is eliminated, prices will rise over time,” “innovation will slow to the pace preferred by the monopolist and consumers will be much worse off in the long run.”^[37] Another coalition argued that the new company would “abuse consumers, artists and other input suppliers in the satellite radio market.”[38]

In the end, the merger took an astonishing 500-plus days for the FCC to finally approve[39] and was conditioned with a lengthy set of “voluntary concessions” to supposedly rectify these potential harms—including pricing constraints that could limit the firm’s ability to cover costs and pay down debt over time.

Unsurprisingly, things haven’t turned out so well for Sirius XM. When the merger was finally approved by the FCC in August 2008, Commissioner Copps dissented vigorously on various grounds but specifically insisted that, “We must assume that the marketplace can support two financially viable competitors.”[40] Unfortunately for Commissioner Copps—as well as Sirius XM—it’s not even clear that the market can sustain one satellite radio provider. The company’s stock went into freefall following completion of the deal and, at one point, its stock fell below 10 cents per share. The company flirted with bankruptcy in February of this year as “satellite radio failed to win over many younger listeners, and competition from other sources slowed subscriber growth.”[41] In March 2009, Karmazin orchestrated a cash-for-stock swap with Liberty Media to get a $530 million lifeline and avoid bankruptcy.[42] But even with the cash infusion Sirius XM faces an uncertain future with stiff competition.[43] “Sirius is girding for slower growth than in the past,” notes Olga Kharif of Business Week, “and analysts remain concerned about the company’s ability to control costs.”[44] Former stockbroker and RealMoney.com contributor Tim Melvin predicts the overleveraged company “will disappear from the landscape. The subscribers will go to another tech or entertainment company in bankruptcy proceedings. Subscription radio just does not have that much appeal to most people.”[45]

Whether Melvin’s dour forecast for satellite radio proves accurate remains to be seen. What’s clear, however, is that the fears bandied about by critics when the Sirius-XM deal was pending have not come to pass.

Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal Quest

In 2007, Rupert Murdoch announced his desire to purchase The Wall Street Journal.  Once again, a great deal of hand-wringing ensued. “This takeover is bad news for anyone who cares about quality journalism and a healthy democracy,” argued Robert McChesney. “Giving any single company—let alone one controlled by Rupert Murdoch—this much media power is unconscionable.”[46] And FCC Commissioner Copps warned that “It will create a single company with enormous influence over politics, art and culture across the nation and especially in the New York metropolitan area.”[47]

Today, however, the Journal keeps humming along and continues to produce some of the finest journalism on the planet. Meanwhile, “politics, art and culture” seem largely unaffected by the deal—either in New York or the nation.

And the deal certainly hasn’t made Murdoch or News Corp. any richer. “His purchase of The Wall Street Journal is widely seen as one of the worst moves of his career,” notes Michael Wolff of Vanity Fair.[48] News Corp. has already taken a whopping $3 billion write-down on the deal.  Considering the $5 billion price tag Murdoch paid two years ago, one wonders if he’ll hold on to this property any longer than he did DirecTV.

Comcast-NBC Universal: Debunking the Fears Preemptively

No doubt we’ll soon be hearing many of these same apocalyptic predictions about the Comcast-NBC deal. Free Press has said the new entity “will have an incentive to prioritize NBC shows over other local and independent voices and programs, making it even harder to find alternatives on the cable dial.”[49] And Free Press Executive Director Josh Silver has called for the Obama Administration to block the deal saying “it would further starve Americans of [media] diversity.”[50] Even competitors are complaining. Liberty Media Corp. Chairman John Malone, which owns DirecTV, has suggested that they might push the government to reject the deal.[51] Many other rivals will likely join that bandwagon.

These critics will likely raise vertical integration fears and claim that Comcast will act as a “gatekeeper” by limiting the ability of independent voices to get a slot on cable distribution systems, or by withholding NBC-Universal content from other platforms and providers. But there’s little historical evidence that suggests this will be a problem. As the adjoining exhibit illustrates, the overall number of video programming channels available in America has skyrocketed, from just 70 channels in 1990 to 565 channels in 2006, the last year for which the FCC has made data available.

More importantly—and despite claims to the contrary—vertical integration in the video marketplace has plummeted over the past two decades. While many more cable and satellite networks are available today than ever before, the greatest share of the growth in the multichannel video marketplace has come from independently owned video networks. Since 1990, the number of cable-owned or affiliated channels has increased slightly, but it pales in comparison with the growth of independently owned and operated video networks. In real terms, therefore, the percentage of the overall video marketplace controlled (i.e., owned and operated) by cable companies has plummeted—from 50% in 1990 to just 14.9% in 2006. Moreover, in the wake of the Time Warner Cable and Time Warner Entertainment divorce, vertical integration in the cable sector has probably fallen into the single digits. Even if the merger of Comcast and NBC-Universal results in slight increase in industry vertical integration, it almost certainly will not surpass 20 percent.  Consequently, as far as vertically integrated industries go, it is impossible to conclude that this market could be characterized as being controlled by “gatekeepers.”

It is difficult to imagine that Comcast would buck these trends and begin restricting independent options on its systems or withhold its content from others.  Video distributors don’t make money by restricting choice. Consumers would flock to alternative video providers and media services if Comcast played such games. The great thing about the modern media marketplace is that there is always another place for consumers to turn to find something they want.[52] Sports programming could be an exception to the rule, and is the one issue that Comcast may need to bargain over with FCC regulators or antitrust officials since they own regional sports networks that other video distributors want access to.^[53] But traditional concerns about access to over-the-air broadcast signals (namely, the NBC local broadcast television properties) shouldn’t be as much of an issue today as it was the past.  Frankly, local broadcasters need all the eyeballs they can get these days. Thus, it’s unlikely that Comcast would try to withhold those stations from other video distributors, especially since a great deal of NBC programming is already available through other means. And intense competition exists for some of the most important news and informational services that NBC offers, such as local news, weather, and traffic.

Overall, therefore, it’s hard to see the case for the FCC rejecting the deal. Regulators need to be forward-looking about what is driving this deal.  This deal isn’t about protecting old markets but instead about building new ones. “The real motivation behind this deal,” argues Mike Berkley, former CEO of SplashCast Media, “is survival.”

Comcast understands that the price point for distributing TV into homes is going to fall dramatically in the coming years. Comcast’s 3 distribution products, Voice – TV – Internet, are collapsing into just one, single product: Internet. This poses a huge threat to Comcast’s top line. As such, Comcast is hedging through diversification into content, moving up the media value chain. Comcast will be looking to replace lost revenue in distribution with revenue from content (advertising, subscriptions, etc).[54]

Similarly, Wall Street Journal business columnist Holman Jenkins points out that Comcast is scrambling to find a way to rework their business model as the era of set-top box-delivered video slowly gives way to a world of ubiquitously available online video:

This would be a merger, after all, of two businesses that seem headed toward some combination of the fates of newspapers, music CDs and the old wireline telephone business. Customers want the product for free. Comcast’s lifeblood, the $100-a-month cable bill and the $50-a-month broadband bill, increasingly look like duplicative expenses. And so on. True, the number of households that have actually dropped their cable subscriptions in favor of subsisting on TV streamed or downloaded from the Internet is not yet large. But for the Roberts family and its Comcast property, their worst fears lurk just around the corner—being reduced to a “dumb pipe,” subject to commodity pricing while somebody else (Google) makes all the money. Yet an escape route is vexingly hard to envision. Time Warner and Comcast have been talking up plans to make their respective cable lineups available by computer—as long as you keep paying your cable bill. This is a stopgap, especially appealing to anyone who owns two homes but wants to pay only one cable bill. Never mind, too, that hundreds of shows are already available online for free, via Web sites operated by none other than Comcast and the TV networks themselves.[55]

In light of such technological upheaval and marketplace uncertainty, it’s important that regulators proceed cautiously when reviewing this deal or future deals.

Conclusion: Let Markets Evolve

The point here is not that media mergers are inherently good or always make sense. Indeed, as the examples discussed above illustrate, mergers sometimes prove to be huge blunders.[56] But the hysteria sometimes heard before media mergers are consummated rarely bears any relationship to reality once the deals move forward. Media markets are extremely dynamic and prone to disruptive change and technological leap-frogging. Mergers are often one response to that turbulence.

But mergers are no panacea, and they often fail to produce the “synergies” hoped for. A 2004 survey by McKinsey & Co. found that “Nearly 70 percent of the mergers in our database failed to achieve the revenue synergies estimated by the acquirer’s management.”[57] Perhaps, therefore, the best argument for blocking media mergers is not their potentially pernicious effect on markets or consumers, but rather to save the merging firms (and their stockholders) from a miserable marriage!

On the other hand, experimenting with alternative business models and ownership structures is an important part of any dynamic market, because markets are not static but represent and ongoing processes of entrepreneurial “discovery.”[58] Thus, policymakers would be wise to avoid micro-managing mergers and instead let things run their course.  Sometimes collaboration makes a great deal of sense, especially when the significant costs of providing a media service becomes impossible absent a partnership. Indeed, federal officials and agencies are currently exploring how (or whether) journalism can survive an era of seeming perpetual media upheaval.[59] Healthy media companies certainly must be part of the answer and new ownership arrangements might be part of the solution.

Given how difficult it is to predict the future course of events in this chaotic sector, humility—not hubris—is the sensible disposition when it comes to media merger policy. At a minimum, policymakers should insist that ongoing debates are governed by facts instead of fanaticism, because, if the past decade is any guide, discussions about media mergers have been more often rooted in hyperbolic rhetoric and unsubstantiated hysteria.

[1] www.freepress.net/comcast

[2] Quoted in Cecilia Kang, Public Interest Groups Rail against a Comcast and NBC Merger, Washington Post, Post Tech Blog, Nov. 9, 2009, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/posttech/2009/11/for_example_were_advancing_tv.html

[3] “For regulators, a deal like this is a gift; an occasion to impose their will upon needy companies that would otherwise be outside their regulatory reach.” Craig Moffett, Bernstein Research, Comcast: Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory? Oct. 23, 2009, at 14.

[4] Cecilia Kang, A New Kind of Company, A New Kind of Challenge for Feds, Washington Post, Nov. 26, 2009, at 1, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/26/AR2009112602500.html

[5] Norman Soloman, AOL Time Warner: Calling The Faithful To Their Knees, Jan. 2000, www.fair.org/media-beat/000113.html

[6] Robert Scheer, Confessions of an E-Columnist, Jan. 14, 2000, Online Journalism Review, www.ojr.org/ojr/workplace/1017966109.php

[7] Looking back at the deal almost ten years later, AOL co-founder Steve Case said, “The synergy we hoped to have, the combination of two members of digital media, didn’t happen as we had planned.” Quoted in Thomas Heath, The Rising Titans of ’98: Where Are They Now?, Washington Post, Nov. 30, 2009, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/29/AR2009112902385.html?sub=AR

[8] Nina Munk, Fools Rush In: Steve Case, Jerry Levin, and the Unmaking of AOL Time Warner (New York: Harper Business, 2004); Kara Swisher and Lisa Dickey, There Must Be a Pony in Here Somewhere: The AOL Time Warner Debacle and the Quest for a Digital Future (New York: Crown Business, 2003).

[9] Frank Pellegrini, What AOL Time Warner’s $54 Billion Loss Means, April 25, 2002, Time Online, www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,233436,00.html

[10] Jim Hu, AOL Loses Ted Turner and $99 billion, CNet News.com, Jan. 30, 2004, http://news.cnet.com/AOL-loses-Ted-Turner-and-99-billion/2100-1023_3-982648.html

[11] Jim Hu, AOL Time Warner Drops AOL from Name, CNet News.com, Sept. 18, 2003, http://news.cnet.com/AOL-Time-Warner-drops-AOL-from-name/2100-1025_3-5078688.html

[12] Matthew Karnitschnig, After Years of Pushing Synergy, Time Warner Inc. Says Enough, Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2006, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114921801650969574.html

[13] Geraldine Fabrikant, Time Warner Plans to Split Off AOL’s Dial-Up Service, New York Times, Feb. 7, 2008, www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/business/07warner.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1209654030-ZpEGB/n3jS5TGHX63DONHg

[14] John Letzing, AOL, On The Verge Of Independence, Weighs On Parent, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091104-718782.html

[15] Allan Sloan, ‘Cash for . . .’ and the Year’s Other Clunkers, Washington Post, Nov. 17, 2009, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/16/AR2009111603775.html

[16] Tim Arango, Time Warner Spinning Off Cable Unit, New York Times, April 30, 2008, www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/30warner-web.html?ref=technology

[17] Carolyn Pritchard, Time Inc. to Sell 18 Magazine Titles, MarketWatch, Sept. 12, 2006,  www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B94967C37%2D9B4A%2D4C1A%2D8AC0%2D64904C1267A1%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw&rss=1

[18] “Break-ups and divestitures do not generally get front-page treatment,” notes Ben Compaine, author of Who Owns the Media?  See Ben Compaine, Domination Fantasies, Reason, Jan. 2004, p. 28, www.reason.com/news/show/29001.html

[19] www.dailykos.com/story/2009/9/7/778254/-Rupert-Murdoch-is-a-Fascist-Hitler-Antichrist

[20] Jim Finkle, Turner Compares Fox’s Popularity to Hitler, Broadcasting & Cable, Jan. 25, 2005, www.broadcastingcable.com/CA499014.html

[21] Ian Douglas, Rupert Murdoch is a Marxist, Telegraph.Co.UK, Nov. 9, 2009,  http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/iandouglas/100004169/rupert-murdoch-is-a-marxist

[22] Karl Frisch, Fox Nation: The Seedy Underbelly of Rupert Murdoch’s Evil Empire? MediaMatters.org, June 2, 2009, http://mediamatters.org/columns/200906020036

[23] www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19817142/

[24] Dean Vows to ‘Break Up Giant Media Enterprises,’ The Drudge Report, Dec. 2, 2003, www.drudgereport.com/dean1.htm; Bill McConnell, Dean Threatens to Break Up Media Giants, Broadcasting & Cable, Dec. 3, 2003, www.broadcastingcable.com/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleID=CA339546.

[25] John Nichols and Robert W. McChesney, Our Media, Not Theirs: The Democratic Struggle against Corporate Media (New York: Seven Stories Press, 2002) at 31.

[26] Consumers Union, Consumer Federation of America, Center for Digital Democracy, and Media Access Project, Comments In the Matter of News Corporation/Fox Entertainment Group Merger with Hughes Electronics Corporation/DirecTV, MB Docket No. 03-124, July 1, 2003, www.consumersunion.org/pdf/0701-DirecTV.pdf

[27] Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Jonathan S. Adelstein, Re:  General Motors Corporation and Hughes Electronics Corporation, Transferors, and The News Corporation Limited, Transferee, MB Docket No. 03-124, Jan. 14, 2004, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-03-330A6.doc

[28] Jeff Chester, Rupert Murdoch’s Digital Death Star, AlterNet, May 20, 2003, www.alternet.org/story/15949

[29] Destruction of Alderaan, Wookieepedia: The Star Wars Wiki, http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Destruction_of_Alderaan

[30] News Corporation and Liberty Media Corporation Sign Share Exchange Agreement, News Corp Press Release, Dec. 22, 2006, www.newscorp.com/news/news_322.html.  A frustrated Murdoch referred to DirecTV as a “turd bird” just before he sold it off. See Jill Goldsmith, Murdoch Looks to Release Bird, Variety, Sept. 14, 2006, www.variety.com/article/VR1117950090.html?categoryid=1236&cs=1

[31] Consumers Union, Consumer Federation of America, Free Press, and Media Access Project, Comments In the Matter of Authority to Transfer Control of DirecTV, MB Docket No. 07-18, March 23, 2007, www.mediaaccess.org/file_download/177

[32] Richard Linnett, Media Rivals Backslap at Cable Conference, AdAge.com, June 10, 2003.

[33] Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Michael J. Copps, Applications for Consent to the Transfer of Control of Licenses, XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., Transferor, to Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., Transferee, MB Docket No. 07-57, Aug. 5, 2008, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-08-178A3.pdf

[34] Dennis Wharton, National Association of Broadcasters, NAB Statement in Response to Sirius/XM Proposed Merger, Feb. 19, 2007, www.nab.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Search&template=/CM/HTMLDisplay.cfm&ContentID=8258.

[35] Peter Whoriskey and Kim Hart, Justice Dept. Approves XM-Sirius Radio Merger, The Washington Post, Mar. 25, 2008, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/24/AR2008032401645.html.

[36] The XM-Sirius Merger: Monopoly or Competition from New Technologies: Hearing Before the Senate Committee on the Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights, 3 & 6 (March 20, 2007) (statement of Common Cause et. al), www.hearusnow.org/fileadmin/sitecontent/2007_-_0320_Public_Interest_GroupsStatement-_Senate_Judiciary.pdf

[37] Id. at 6.

[38] Common Cause, Consumer Federation of America, Consumers Union, Free Press, Comments in the Matter of Consolidated Application for Authority To Transfer Control of XM Radio Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., MB Docket No. 07-57July 9, 2007, at 1, www.hearusnow.org/fileadmin/sitecontent/xm-sirius_comments.pdf

[39] James Gattuso, Day 505: The XM-Sirius Circus Is Finally Over, Technology Liberation Front Blog, Aug. 7, 2008, http://techliberation.com/2008/08/07/day-505-the-xm-sirius-circus-is-finally-over

[40] Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Michael J. Copps, Applications for Consent to the Transfer of Control of Licenses, XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., Transferor, to Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., Transferee, MB Docket No. 07-57, Aug. 5, 2008, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-08-178A3.pdf

[41] Andrew Ross Sorkin & Zachery Kouwe, Sirius XM Prepares for Possible Bankruptcy, New York Times, Feb. 10, 2009,  www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/technology/companies/11radio.html

[42] Jon Birger, Mel Karmazin Fights to Rescue Sirius, Fortune.com, March 16, 2009, http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/13/technology/birger_sirius.fortune/index.htm

[43] Former stockbroker and RealMoney.com contributor Tim Melvin worries about the “significant competition for the company going forward” He notes:

Most of the younger people I know have iPod docks in their vehicles for listening to music. Smartphones are bringing music and podcasts to mobile consumers. E-reading machines have wireless connections that can eventually deliver content on a subscription or pay-per-use basis. I really do not need the sports channels from Sirius if I can watch and listen to the games I want on my phone. As time goes by, satellite radio will be viewed as a stepping-stone technology that was replaced by smartphones and other portable media devices.

Tim Melvin, Sirius’ Hopes Keep Slipping Away, The Street.com, Nov. 10, 2009, www.thestreet.com/story/10624757/1/sirius-hopes-keep-slipping-away.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI

[44] Olga Kharif, Sirius XM: The Good and Bad Earnings News, Business Week, Nov. 5, 2009, www.businessweek.com/technology/content/nov2009/tc2009115_002716.htm

[45] Melvin, supra 39.

[46] Robert McChesney, Murdoch’s Deal for the Journal: Yet Another Blow for Journalism, Free Press Press Release, July 30, 2007, www.freepress.net/release/260

[47] Michael Copps, Letter to FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, Oct. 25, 2007, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-277576A1.pdf

[48] Michael Wolff, Rupert to Internet: It’s War! Vanity Fair, Nov. 2009, at 112.

[49] www.freepress.net/comcast

[50] Josh Silver, Too Big to Block? Why Obama Must Stop the Comcast-NBC Merger, Huffington Post, Nov. 13, 2009, www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-silver/too-big-to-block-why-obam_b_356826.html

[51] www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/11/19/afx7143505.html

[52] Adam Thierer and Grant Eskelsen, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Metrics: The True State of the Modern Media Marketplace, Summer 2008, www.pff.org/mediametrics

[53] However, experience with regulation of sports programming suggests that FCC meddling has had negative unintended consequences.  See W. Kenneth Ferree, Competition in the Sports Programming Marketplace, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet, House Committee on Energy and Commerce, March 5, 2008, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/testimony/2008/030508ferreetestimony.pdf; Barbara Esbin, Unable to Watch the Big Game? Testimony before the National Conference of State Legislatures Communications, Financial Services and Interstate Commerce Committee, Apr. 25, 2008, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/testimony/2008/080425esbinNCSLpresentation.pdf

[54] Mike Berkley, The Comcast-NBC Deal is a Defensive Move by Comcast. It’s about Survival, TV News Stream, Nov. 16, 2009, http://tvnewsstream.com/the-comcast-nbc-deal-is-a-defensive-move-by-c

[55] Holman Jenkins, The Economics of Jay Leno, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 18, 2009, at A17, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704431804574541684183772504.html

[56] Chris O’Brien, Beware the Hype Around Mergers, MercuryNews.com, Nov. 12, 2009, www.mercurynews.com/chris-obrien/ci_13756963?nclick_check=1

[57] Scott A. Christofferson, Robert S. McNish & Diane L. Sias, Where Mergers Go Wrong, McKinsey on Finance, Winter 2004, at 2, http://westportcapital.com/library/McKinsey_Where_Mergers_Go_Wrong.pdf.  The authors noted that, “acquirers face an obvious challenge in coping with an acute lack of reliable information. They typically have little actual data about the target company, limited access to its managers, suppliers, channel partners, and customers, and insufficient experience to guide synergy estimation and benchmarks.”

[58] See, e.g., Israel M. Kirzner, Competition, Regulation, and the Market Process: An “Austrian” Perspective, Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 18, 1982, www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa018.html

[59] For example, congressional hearings have been held on this topic and the Federal Trade Commission is holding a workshop on December 1^st and 2^nd asking, “Will Journalism Survive the Internet Age?” www.ftc.gov/opp/workshops/news/index.shtml

In a recent PFF paper I argued that “We Are Living in the Golden Age of Children’s Programming,” and showed how, despite incessant complaints by many policymakers:

the overall market for family and children’s programming options continues to expand quite rapidly. Thirty years ago, families had a limited number of children’s television programming options at their disposal on broadcast TV. Today, by contrast, there exists a broad and growing diversity of children’s television options from which families can choose.

I then documented there and in my book, Parental Controls & Online Child Protection:

• the many excellent family- or child-oriented networks available on cable, telco, and satellite television today;
• the growing universe of religious / spiritual television networks;
• the many family or educational programs that traditional TV broadcasters offer; or
• the massive market for interactive computer software or Internet websites for children.

And every time I turn around I find another great show, service, or site for families to choose from.  Earlier today I highlighted the excellent new online video search service, Clicker.com, which is essentially a “TV Guide for the Internet.”  It is absolutely awesome and I highly recommend you play with it. You’ll be instantly hooked if you are TV junkie.

Better yet, Clicker.com offers a wonderful compendium of kid- and family-oriented video programming options. Although the site is still fairly new, you can already find 660 shows and almost 5,000 unique episodes of kids programming there.  A lot of it is just good ‘ol fashion couch potato fare ranging from the old (The Jetsons, Fat Albert, The Flintstones, etc) to the new stuff that you’d find on various cable channels today.  But there’s also plenty of wonderful educational programming to be found on Clicker including shows like Arthur, Sesame Street (over 1,000 episodes), Martha Speaks, The Electric Company, Animal Exploration with Jarod Miller, Jonathan Bird’s Blue World, Postcards From Buster, Science on Brain Pop, Technology on Brain Pop, and more.

Although my kids aren’t really into TV, as they grow older, I bet they’ll be watching a lot more programming via services like Clicker.  Currently, my kids enjoy watching snippets of video via kid-oriented online search portals like KidZui and Glubble.  Such online walled gardens offer a safe place for parents to find terrific online content for their kids.   Bottom line: compared to the miserable state of affairs some of us faced growing up in the 1970s, kids and parents have never had it better in terms of the video programming options at their disposal.

Anyway, some of “kid-vid” issues — including potential expansion of the Children’s Television Act of 1990 — could be up for discussion in the FCC’s new proceeding, “Empowering Parents and Protecting Children in an Evolving Media Landscape” (MB Docket 09-194).  The FCC just tweeted about it here and I posted my thoughts on where the agency might be heading in this proceeding in this post last month.

Around this time last year, a relative 20 years my senior was asking me what I was writing about and I mentioned how I’d been collecting anecdotes and stats for what was becoming our “Cutting the Video Cord” series here.  That series has documented how the Internet and new digital media options are displacing traditional video distribution channels.  We’ve been exploring what that means for consumers, regulators and the media itself.

I asked this relative of mine if they spent any time watching their favorite shows, or even movies, online or through alternative means than just their cable or satellite subscription.  He said he didn’t because of the lack of an easy way to find all their favorite shows quickly.  Specifically, he lamented the lack of a good “TV Guide” for online video. I explained to him that, for most of us 40 and under, our “TV Guide” was called “a search engine”!  It’s pretty easy to just pop in any show name or topic into your preferred search engine and then click on “Video” to see what you get back.  Nonetheless, I had to concede that random searching for video wouldn’t necessarily be the way everyone would want to go about it.  And it wouldn’t necessarily organize the results in way viewers would find useful–grouping things thematically by genre or offering the sort of related programming you might be interested in seeing.

Well, good news, such a service now exists. Katherine Boehret of the Wall Street Journal brought “Clicker.com” to my attention in her column last night, a terrific new (and free) video search service:

… Clicker [is] a free Web site that aims to be the TV Guide for all full episodes available to watch on the Web. It searches over 1,200 sources, so it can index some 400,000 episodes from 7,000 shows. Results include television programs as well as “Web originals,” or shows that are native to the Internet and are of broadcast quality. Clicker either plays the video on its site or links you to where this content is shown on another hosting site—like NBC or Hulu. If a show isn’t available online, Clicker tells you so you don’t have to keep hunting all over for it.

I played around with Clicker quite a bit last night and this morning and can safely say that I will be spending a lot of my free time there in coming months and years, as will a lot of other folks I suspect. It’s a great way to search a broad array of websites for the very best video content on the Net.  I’m a car nut and used Clicker to quickly pull up some of my favorite programs as well as several I had never heard of before.  The player will allow you to fire up many of those videos right away, or at least direct you to the site where the content is housed to watch it there immediately.  The playlist feature allows you to create a customized “TV Guide” for you and your own family.  Very cool.

Anyway, when we add Clicker to all the other great online video services out there today, it’s even harder for me to understand the amount of time Washington regulators and lawmakers spend obsessing about crusty old TV regulatory issues.  It just doesn’t make any sense.

It’s truly amazing how fast mobile broadband demand is expanding. A couple of things caught my eye yesterday that really drove that home.  First, I was reading Bernstein Research’s weekly (subscription-only) newsletter and Craig Moffett, one of America’s top media and communications analysts, summarized the growing mobile bandwidth crunch as follows:

To fully grasp the challenge facing wireless providers as we make the transition from wireless voice to wireless data, it is helpful to put some ballpark numbers around current usage levels. Today, the average voice-only customer consumes something like 50 megabytes of data every month. For that, they pay about $40, or about $0.80 per megabyte. That’s 70% of wireless industry revenues. Text messaging generates another $10 per month for a minuscule amount of data (in fact, arguably no throughput at all, since text messaging travels in a signaling band rather than in the carrier band itself). Let’s call it $1,000 per megabyte. That’s another 15% of industry revenues. On a blended basis, then, that’s $1.00 per megabyte for 85% of industry revenues. And then there’s the iPhone. By some estimates, the average iPhone user consumes as much as 800 megabytes per month. Take out their 50 Mb for voice and you’re looking at 750 Mb of data… for an additional $30. For the mathematically challenged, that’s a princely sum of… wait for it… four cents per megabyte. Worse, we noted that the FCC’s wireless net neutrality policies posed the risk of “bandwidth arbitrage,” where low bandwidth services (at $1.00 per megabyte) would be replaced with free or almost free applications that ride on $0.04 per megabyte data plans, and where carriers’ hands would be tied to prevent it. Taking a business that is currently getting $1.00 per megabyte down to just $0.04 per megabyte is, well, hard. And lest anyone think that this threat is idle fear-mongering, Google’s acquisition last week of Gizmo5, a wireless VoIP specialist, should give one pause.

Those are stunning numbers. And then I saw this new filing by CTIA listing some other statistics about growing mobile broadband demand:

According to the FCC’s most recent data, there were over 59 million mobile wireless high speed lines.

In addition, mobile wireless broadband growth continues to outpace every other broadband platform, with net additions between December 2007 and June 2008 greater than those of DSL and cable modem combined.

Mobile data and Internet traffic will increase 66 times between 2008 and 2013;

By 2010, “mobile broadband penetration will surpass fixed penetration globally.”

The simple task of watching a YouTube video consumes 100 times the bandwidth of a voice call.

The mobile data traffic footprint of a single mobile subscriber in 2015 could very well be 450 times what it was in 2005.

These projections are consistent with mobile broadband providers’ experiences to date. For example, AT&T noted that its wireless data traffic has increased nearly 5,000 percent in the past quarters and other carriers have likewise reported dramatic increases. Similarly, since T-Mobile began offering its G1 smartphone, customers of that device use, on average, 50 times the data of the average T-Mobile customer.

For these reasons, CTIA and others are calling on the federal government to find more spectrum to meet these growing mobile broadband needs.  The question is: Where to find it?  The military is one answer, but good luck getting them to budge and return any of their current spectrum holdings for reallocation.  Thus, as Barbara Esbin and I noted in a recent PFF paper, a lot of people are turning to the broadcast TV sector and hoping to find a way to make a cash-for-spectrum deal with them to get some (or all) of their spectrum back. But it may be unlikely many broadcasters will be willing to hand back their spectrum for alternative uses, even if the cash offer was generous.  Plus, Congress would have to bless any such deal, which raises another set of sticky political issues.

PFF will be hosting a debate about these issues on Tuesday, December 1st at 9am at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.  The event is called, “Let’s Make a Deal: Broadcasters, Mobile Broadband, and a Market in Spectrum.”  Seating is limited, so reserve your spot now by RSVPing here. We’ve got a terrific lineup for the event, including:

• Blair Levin, Executive Director, Omnibus Broadband Initiative, Federal Communications Commission
• Coleman Bazelon, Principal, The Brattle Group
• David Donovan, President, Association for Maximum Service Television, Inc.
• Paul Gallant, Senior Vice President, Washington Research Group
• John Hane, Counsel, Communications Practice Group, Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP
• Kostas Liopiros, Principal, The Sun Fire Group

As I noted in a recent paper with my PFF colleague Barbara Esbin (“An Offer They Can’t Refuse: Spectrum Reallocation That Can Benefit Consumers, Broadcasters & the Mobile Broadband Sector“) an official at the Federal Communications Commission (Blair Levin) recently suggested that it might be possible to craft a grand bargain whereby television broadcasters get cash for some (or all) of their current spectrum if they return it to the FCC for reallocation and auction.  Such a deal could, eventually, open up significant amounts of prime spectrum for next-generation mobile broadband and data services.

Is such a deal feasible and in the best interests of broadcasters?  Is the arrangement necessary to encourage growth in broadband penetration consistent with the goals of the Recovery Act?  Will Congress go along with the deal, or would it be blocked as contrary to “the public interest?” Alternatively, would lawmakers back the deal but seek a significant cut of the auction proceeds, leaving less available for broadcasters?  These and other policy issues will be discussed at “ Let’s Make a Deal:  Broadcasters, Mobile Broadband, and a Market in Spectrum,” a congressional seminar hosted by The Progress & Freedom Foundation. The event will be held Tuesday, December 1st from 9:00am to 11:00am in the Holeman Lounge, 13th Floor, at the National Press Club, 529 14th Street, NW in Washington, DC.

Panelists confirmed so far for the event include:

• Blair Levin, Executive Director, Omnibus Broadband Initiative, Federal Communications Commission
• Coleman Bazelon, Principal, The Brattle Group
• David Donovan, President, Association for Maximum Service Television
• Kostas Liopiros, Principal, The Sun Fire Group
• John K. Hane, Counsel, Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP
• and 1 or 2 more to come!

I will be moderating the event.  Those interested in attending can register here.  Should be a spirited debate.

Along with my colleague Barbara Esbin, the Director of PFF’s Center for Communications and Competition Policy, I have just released a new paper on discussing the possibility of reallocating a portion of broadcast television spectrum for alternative purposes, namely, mobile broadband. As I discussed here before, Blair Levin, the Executive Director of the FCC’s Omnibus Broadband Initiative, has been suggesting that it might be possible to craft a grand bargain whereby broadcasters get cash for some (or all) of their current spectrum allocations if they return spectrum to the FCC for reallocation and re-auction, likely to mobile broadband services.

In our paper, “An Offer They Can’t Refuse: Spectrum Reallocation That Can Benefit Consumers, Broadcasters & the Mobile Broadband Sector,” [PDF] Barbara and I argue that:

the benefits of such a deal could be enormous for wireless broadband providers, developers of digital technologies, and consumers.  Expanding the pool of spectrum available for next-generation wireless broadband offerings will ensure that innovative new networks, devices, and services are made available to the public on a timely basis.  Ultimately, that will mean more high-speed choices for consumers, especially those in rural areas harder to reach with high-speed wireline networks.  Finally, more generally, anything that moves us in the direction of a freer market in spectrum is a good thing. But fairness to broadcasters lies at the heart of this spectrum reallocation plan. If a deal can’t be structured that broadcasters would find acceptable, they should not be forced to come to the table. When we speak of an offer they can’t refuse, we mean one so attractive that no rational businessperson or investor would pass it up. It is essential broadcasters be willing partners in the deal, and be full participants in the process of shaping its contours.

Read the entire thing here, or below the fold as a Scribd document.

Broadcast TV Spectrum Reallocation (Thierer & Esbin – PFF) http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=22365493&access_key=key-2cs1sry5qv9xd3x6d5bv&page=1&version=1&viewMode=list