President-elect Barack Obama will soon be naming Cass Sunstein, an old friend of his from their University of Chicago Law School days together, the new head the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA). OIRA oversees regulation throughout the U.S. government. Basically, Sunstein’s position is the equivalent of the federal regulatory czar.
Sunstein certainly possess excellent qualifications for the job. During his time at the University of Chicago and Harvard Law School, Sunstein has established himself as a leading liberal thinker in the field of law and economics. And, as I have joked in writing about him before, he is so insanely prolific that it seems every time I finish reading one of his new books a new title by him lands on my desk. I am quite convinced that both he and Richard Posner are actually cyborgs. I just don’t understand how two humans can compose words so rapidly!
Anyway, Professor Sunstein’s new position as head of OIRA gives him the ability influence federal regulatory decisions in both a procedural and substantive way. In terms of substance, it gives him an important platform to subtly “nudge” the regulatory philosophy and direction of the Obama Administration on many matters, including Internet policy. So, what has Professor Sunstein had to say about Internet policy in his recent work? Sunstein has developed his thinking about these issues primarily in his two recent books: Republic.com (2000) and Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge (2006). But he’s also had a few relevant things to say about Internet issues in his recent book with Richard Thaler, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
(2008).
There are 3 Internet policy-related things from his work that I’d like to focus on here because I find them all quite troubling. Continue reading →
A couple of quick follow-ups to my last post: first, a commenter points out that Career Builder is an example of a successful spin-off from a major media company. (Actually, from three media companies; I bet having ownership by multiple companies helped insulate the company from any one firm’s internal politics). So it appears that the spin-off model can work.
Second, the always-interesting Tom Lee points to the Washington Post’s online operation as an example of the spin-off model. This is a really interesting example because it’s closer to the core of the WaPo‘s business than Career Builder is to Gannett’s. And by all accounts, it was relatively successful. I’m pretty sure I’ve read multiple people comment that the Post is a local newspaper with a national website, which is precisely what you’d want a successful spin-off news organization to do.
The problem is that washingtonpost.com is nowhere close to being a free-standing organization. They get tremendous benefit from having access to content from the print
Post, and while I haven’t looked at their business model in any detail, I’d be willing to bet that there’s massive cross-subsidy going on. That makes it a better website, but the problem is that it relieves the web side of the business of the need to come up with new, lower-cost methods for generating news. Which means that if and when the print side hits an iceberg, the online side won’t be able to stand on its own.
Having recently read The Innovator’s Dilemma, it’s worth pointing out that the discussion Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias are having about the decline of newspapers is a classic illustration of the principles Clayton Christensen laid out a decade ago. Internet news is a classic disruptive technology. At its outset, it was simple, dirt cheap, and in many ways inferior to established journalism. But it improved over time, and once it began to rival traditional journalistic outfits in quality around the middle of this decade, the “dirt cheap” part of the equation began to dominate. When your competition can produce a roughly comparable product for a small fraction of the cost, your days are numbered.
But here’s the really important point that Christensen made that is often missed in these kinds of discussions: it’s often close to impossible for an organization built around an older technology to retool for a new, disruptive one because their cost structures just don’t allow it. The
New York Times is an expensive place to run. It’s got writers, editors, typesetters, delivery trucks, an ad sales force, a big building, travel budgets, and so forth. In order to recoup those costs, they have to make a certain amount of revenue per unit of output. The institutional structure of the New York Times makes it almost impossible for it to produce news the way TPM Muckraker or Ars Technica do. The need to make payroll and cover their rent makes it almost mandatory for them to focus on their traditional core competencies because even as those markets shrink they still offer better margins than the emerging businesses.
Matt’s suggestion of launching NYTList a decade ago illustrates the point well. It’s true that in the long run this probably would have made the
Times more money. But in the short run this would have been a truly wrenching transition. At a time when other papers were enjoying fat margins from their classified business, the Times would find more and more of its classified customers switching to the new version. It would have had to start laying off the classified staff and trimming other parts of the budget to cover the lost revenue. And it would have been a huge gamble. It was far from obvious in 2000 that Craigslist would be as big as it has become. So yes, theoretically an enlightened NYT manager could have foreseen the growth of Craig’s List and countered it. But in practice doing so would have required super-human foresight and determination, and an extremely deferential board of directors.
Christensen’s conclusion is that the only way to avoid this grim fate is to spin off an independent subsidiary that can pursue new markets without worrying about fat profit margins or cannibalization of existing product lines. GM’s spin-off of Saturn in the 1980s is a good example of this model. This is still an extremely difficult thing to pull off. It takes a CEO with the foresight to see what’s coming
and the political capital within the firm to shield the spin-off from the parent company’s politics. I’m not aware of any high-profile newspaper firms that attempted this, but I’m not sure we can really blame the newspaper managers. It’s a really hard thing to pull off. Christensen was only able to find a handful of firms—in any industry—that pulled it off successfully, and the CEOs who did it almost all said that it was one of the most difficult things they did as managers.
Companies are not big people. They change much more slowly than individual people do. And anyone suggesting that a firm should do things in a new way—even the guy at the top—is going to face strong pressures from traditionalists who want to continue doing things the old way. And in the short run, the traditionalists are almost always right. The old way of doing things is almost always going to be more profitable in the short run. So although I think those who predicted the newspaper industry’s decline are entitled to a certain amount of smugness, I think it’s absolutely not fair excoriate the managers who failed to move more decisively to address the problem. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it’s easy to come up with scenarios that would have turned out better. But from an
ex ante perspective, these trends were far from clear, and the people making the decisions were under tremendous pressure to continue the status quo.
“Damn their lies and trust your eyes. Dig every kind of fox!” I here sing one for the freedom to mix it up as you and your honey alone see fit:
http://www.youtube.com/v/JTcHzGbBoe0&hl=en&fs=1
“Hapa” means “mixed race” in Hawaiian. Skin-tone mash ups have profoundly enriched my life, first with the Honolulu Hapa herself and then with our own little hapas. Honolulu Hapa celebrates coloring across the lines, knocks racism, and gives a shout-out to Loving v. Virginia, 88 U.S. 1 (1967)—the case where the U.S. Supreme Court struck down anti-miscegenation laws as unconstitutional restraints on personal liberty.
As with the prior four songs I’ve posted in this recent series (Take Up the Flame, Sensible Khakis, Nice to Be Wanted, and Hello, Jonah,), Honolulu Hapa comes with a Creative Commons license that allows pretty liberal use by all but commercial licensees, who have to pay a tithe to one of my favorite causes. Honolulu Hapa aims to help Creative Commons, an organization that helps all of us to mix—and remix—it up. Unlike those other songs, however, Honolulu Hapa adds a special ‘unrestricted use” term effective on June 12, Loving Day.
With
Honolulu Hapa, I conclude my recent series of freedom-loving music videos. Like it or not, though, I’ve got more music-making plans. Next, I’ll record some good studio versions of those (and perhaps some other) songs. Eventually, I’d like to release a fundraising CD, one that might help out some good causes. Silly? Yeah, I guess so. But it does add another data point in support of my hypothesis: Freedom has more fun.
[Crossposted at Agoraphilia and Technology Liberation Front.]
Man, I’d love to bring one of these mobile phone jamming devices into the movie theater with me. I’m getting tired of all the rude jackasses who don’t mute their phone, or even take calls, during the middle of movies. Of course, as this WSJ article notes, such devices violate FCC rules and would disrupt all sorts of beneficial uses. (The company is apparently trying to get them authorized for use in prisons to disable smuggled-in phones from being used and creating problems).
Oh well. I guess I’ll just have to keep throwing popcorn at those idiots in the theater until they shut their pie holes.
