government – Technology Liberation Front https://techliberation.com Keeping politicians' hands off the Net & everything else related to technology Fri, 16 Jun 2023 13:27:15 +0000 en-US hourly 1 6772528 New Report: Do We Need Global Government to Address AI Risk? https://techliberation.com/2023/06/16/new-report-do-we-need-global-government-to-address-ai-risk/ https://techliberation.com/2023/06/16/new-report-do-we-need-global-government-to-address-ai-risk/#comments Fri, 16 Jun 2023 13:27:15 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77138

Can we advance AI safety without new international regulatory bureaucracies, licensing schemes or global surveillance systems? I explore that question in my latest R Street Institute study, “Existential Risks & Global Governance Issues around AI & Robotics.” (31 pgs)  My report rejects extremist thinking about AI arms control & stresses how the “realpolitik” of international AI governance is such that things cannot and must not be solved through silver-bullet gimmicks and grandiose global government regulatory regimes.

The report uses Nick Bostrom’s “vulnerable world hypothesis” as a launching point and discusses how his five specific control mechanisms for addressing AI risks have started having real-world influence with extreme regulatory proposals now being floated. My report also does a deep dive into the debate about a proposed global ban on “killer robots” and looks at how past treaties and arms control efforts might apply, or what we can learn from them about what won’t work.

I argue that proposals to impose global controls on AI through a worldwide regulatory authority are both unwise and unlikely to work. Calls for bans or “pauses” on AI developments are largely futile because many nations will not agree to them. As with nuclear and chemical weapons, treaties, accords, sanctions and other multilateral agreements can help address some threats of malicious uses of AI or robotics. But trade-offs are inevitable, and addressing one type of existential risk sometimes can give rise to other risks.

A culture of AI safety by design is critical. But there is an equally compelling interest in ensuring algorithmic innovations are developed and made widely available to society. The most effective solution to technological problems usually lies in more innovation, not less. Many other multistakeholder and multilateral efforts can help AI safety. Final third of my study is devoted to a discussion of that. Continuous communication, coordination, and cooperation—among countries, developers, professional bodies and other stakeholders—will be essential.

My new report on concludes with a plea to reject fatalism and fanaticism when discussing global AI risks. It’s worth recalling what Bertrand Russell said in 1951 about how only global government could save humanity. He predicted, “[t]he end of human life, perhaps of all life on our planet,” before the end of the century unless the world unified under “a single government, possessing a monopoly of all the major weapons of war.” He was very wrong, of course, and thank God he did not get his wish because an effort to unite the world under one global government would have entailed different existential risks that he never bothered seriously considering. We need to reject extremist global government solutions as the basis for controlling technological risk.

Three quick notes.

First, this new report is the third in a trilogy of major R Street Institute s tudies on bottom-up, polycentric AI governance. If you only read one, make it this: “Flexible, Pro-Innovation Governance Strategies for Artificial Intelligence.” 

Second, I wrapped up this latest report a few months ago, before the Microsoft and OpenAI floated new comprehensive AI regulatory controls. So, for an important follow-up to this report, please read: “Microsoft’s New AI Regulatory Framework & the Coming Battle over Computational Control.”

Finally, if you’d like to hear me discuss many of the findings from these new reports and essays at greater length, check out my recent appearance on TechFreedom’s “Tech Policy Podcast,” with Corbin K. Barthold. We do a deep dive on all these AI governance trends and regulatory proposals.

As always, all my writing on AI, ML and robotics can be found here and my most recent things are found below.

Additional Reading :

]]> https://techliberation.com/2023/06/16/new-report-do-we-need-global-government-to-address-ai-risk/feed/ 4 77138 Podcast: “Who’s Afraid of Artificial Intelligence?” https://techliberation.com/2023/06/12/podcast-whos-afraid-of-artificial-intelligence/ https://techliberation.com/2023/06/12/podcast-whos-afraid-of-artificial-intelligence/#comments Mon, 12 Jun 2023 17:30:32 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77136

This week, I appeared on the Tech Freedom Tech Policy Podcast to discuss “Who’s Afraid of Artificial Intelligence?” It’s an in-depth, wide-ranging conversation about all things AI related. Here’s a summary of what host what Corbin Barthold and I discussed:

  1. The “little miracles happening every day” thanks to AI

  2. Is AI a “born free” technology?

  3. Potential anti-competitive effects of AI regulation

  4. The flurry of joint letters

  5. new AI regulatory agency political realities

  6. the EU’s Precautionary Principle tech policy disaster

  7. The looming “war on computation” & open source

  8. The role of common law for AI

  9. Is Sam Altman breaking the very laws he proposes?

  10. Do we need an IAEA for AI or an “AI Island”

  11. Nick Bostrom’s global control & surveillance model

  12. Why “doom porn” dominates in academic circles

  13. Will AI take all the jobs?

  14. Smart regulation of algorithmic technology

  15. How the “pacing problem” is sometimes the “pacing benefit”

 

]]> https://techliberation.com/2023/06/12/podcast-whos-afraid-of-artificial-intelligence/feed/ 5 77136 No Goldilocks Formula for Content Moderation in Social Media or the Metaverse, But Algorithms Still Help https://techliberation.com/2022/09/13/no-goldilocks-formula-for-content-moderation-in-social-media-or-the-metaverse-but-algorithms-still-help/ https://techliberation.com/2022/09/13/no-goldilocks-formula-for-content-moderation-in-social-media-or-the-metaverse-but-algorithms-still-help/#comments Tue, 13 Sep 2022 17:48:00 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77041

[Cross-posted from Medium.]

In an age of hyper-partisanship, one issue unites the warring tribes of American politics like no other: hatred of “Big Tech.” You know, those evil bastards who gave us instantaneous access to a universe of information at little to no cost. Those treacherous villains! People are quick to forget the benefits of moving from a world of Information Poverty to one of Information Abundance, preferring to take for granted all they’ve been given and then find new things to complain about.

But what mostly unites people against large technology platforms is the feeling that they are just too big or too influential relative to other institutions, including government. I get some of that concern, even if I strongly disagree with many of their proposed solutions, such as the highly dangerous sledgehammer of antitrust breakups or sweeping speech controls. Breaking up large tech companies would not only compromise the many benefits they provide us with, but it would undermine America’s global standing as a leader in information and computational technology. We don’t want that. And speech codes or meddlesome algorithmic regulations are on a collision course with the First Amendment and will just result in endless litigation in the courts.

There’s a better path forward. As President Ronald Reagan rightly said in 1987 when vetoing a bill to reestablish the Fairness Doctrine, “History has shown that the dangers of an overly timid or biased press cannot be averted through bureaucratic regulation, but only through the freedom and competition that the First Amendment sought to guarantee.” In other words, as I wrote in a previous essay about “The Classical Liberal Approach to Digital Media Free Speech Issues,” more innovation and competition are always superior to more regulation when it comes to encouraging speech and speech opportunities.

Can Government Get Things Just Right?

But what about the accusations we hear on both the left and right about tech companies failing to properly manage or moderate online content in some fashion? This is not only a concern for today’s most popular social media platforms, but it is a growing concern for the so-called Metaverse, where questions about content policies already surround activities and interactions on AR and VR systems.

The problem here is that different people want different things from digital platforms when it comes to content moderation. As I noted in a column for The Hill late last year:

there is considerable confusion in the complaints both parties make about “Big Tech.” Democrats want tech companies doing more to limit content they claim is hate speech, misinformation, or that incites violence. Republicans want online operators to do less, because many conservatives believe tech platforms already take down too much of their content.

Thus, large digital intermediaries are expected to make all the problems of the world go away through a Goldilocks formula whereby digital platforms will get content moderation “just right.” It’s an impossible task with billions of voices speaking. Bureaucrats won’t do a better job refereeing these disputes, and letting them do so will turn every content spat into an endless regulatory proceeding.

What Algorithms Can and Cannot Do to Help

But we should be clear on one thing: These disputes will always be with us because every media platform in history has had some sort of content moderation policies, even if we didn’t call them that until recently. Creating what used to just be called guidelines or standards for information production and dissemination has always been a tricky business. But the big difference between the old and new days comes down to three big problems:

#1- the volume problem: There’s just a ton of content online to moderate today compared to the past.

#2- the subjectivity problem: Content moderation always involves “eye of the beholder” questions, but now there’s even more of those problems because of Problem #1.

#3- the crafty adversaries problem: There are a lot of people bound and determined to get around any rules or restrictions platforms impose, and they’ll find creative ways to do so.

These problems are nicely summarized in an excellent new AEI report by Alex Feerst on, “The Use of AI in Online Content Moderation.” This is the fifth in a series of new reports from the AEI’s Digital Platforms and American Life project. The goal of the project is to highlight how the “democratization of knowledge and influence comes with incredible opportunities but also immense challenges. How should policymakers think about the digital platforms that have become embedded in our social and civic life?” Various experts have been asked to sound off on that question and address different challenges. The series kicked off in April with an essay I wrote on “Governing Emerging Technology in an Age of Policy Fragmentation and Disequilibrium.” More studies are coming.

In Feerst’s new report, the focus is squarely on the issue of algorithmic content moderation policies and procedures. Feerst provides a brilliant summary of how digital media platforms currently utilize AI to assist their content moderation efforts. He notes:

The short answer to the question “why AI” is scale — the sheer never-ending vastness of online speech. Scale is the prime mover of online platforms, at least in their current, mainly ad-based form and maybe in all incarnations. It’s impossible to internalize the dynamics of running a digital platform without first spending some serious time just sitting and meditating on the dizzying, sublime amounts of speech we are talking about: 500 million tweets a day comes out to 200 billion tweets each year. More than 50 billion photos have been uploaded to Instagram. Over 700,000 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every day. I could go on. Expression that would previously have been ephemeral or limited in reach under the existing laws of nature and pre-digital publishing economics can now proliferate and move around the world. It turns out that, given the chance, we really like to hear ourselves talk.

So that’s the scale/volume problem in a nutshell. Algorithmic systems are absolutely going to be needed to help do some sifting and sorting, therefore.

What Do You Want to Do about Man-Boobs?

But then we immediately run into the subjectivity problem that pervades so many content moderation issues. When it comes to topics like hate speech, “There will be as many opinions as there are people. Three well-meaning civic groups will agree on four different definitions of hate speech,” Feerst notes.

Indeed, these eye-of-the-beholder judgment calls are ubiquitous and endlessly frustrating for content moderators. Let me tell you a quick story I told a Wall Street Journal reporter who asked me in 2019 why I gave up helping tech companies figure out how to handle these content moderation controversies. I had spent many years trying to help companies and trade associations figure this stuff out because I had been writing about these challenges since the late 1990s. But then finally I gave up. Why? Because of man boobs. Yes, man boobs. Here’s the summary of my story from that WSJ article:

Adam Thierer, a senior research fellow at the right-leaning Mercatus Center at George Mason University, says he used to consult with Facebook and other tech companies. The futility of trying to please all sides hit home after he heard complaints about a debate at YouTube over how much skin could be seen in breast-feeding videos.

While some argued the videos had medical purposes, other advisers wondered whether videos of shirtless men with large mammaries should be permitted as well. “I decided I don’t want to be the person who decides on whether man boobs are allowed,” says Mr. Thierer.

No, seriously. This has been one of the many crazy problems that content moderators have had to deal with. There are scumbag dudes with large mammaries who not only salaciously jiggle them around on camera for the world to see, but then even put whipped cream on their own boobs and lick it off. Now, if a woman does that and posts it on almost any mainstream platform, it’ll get quickly flagged (probably by an algorithmic filter) and probably immediately blocked. But if a dude with man boobs does the same thing, shouldn’t the policy be the same? Well, in our still very sexist world of double standards, policies can vary on that question. And I didn’t want any part of trying to figure out an answer to that question (and others like it), so I largely got out of the business of helping companies do so. Not even King Solomon could figure out a fair resolution to some of this stuff.

Algorithms can only help us so much here because, at some point, humans must tell the machines what to flag or block using some sort of subjective standard that will lead to all sorts of problems later. This is one reason why Feerst reminds us of another important rule here: “Don’t confuse a subjectivity problem for an accuracy problem, especially when you’re using automation technology.” As he notes:

If the things we’re doing are controversial among humans and it’s not even clear that humans judge them consistently, then using AI is not going to help. It’s just going to allow you to achieve the same controversial outcomes more quickly and in greater volume. In other words, if you can’t get 50 humans to agree on whether a particular post violates content rules, whether that content rule is well formulated, or whether that rule should exist, then why would automating this process help?

So Many Troublemakers (Sometimes Accidental)

The man boobs moderation story also reminds us that the crafty adversary problem will always haunt us, too. There are just so many bastards out there looking to cause trouble for whatever reason. “There will never be ‘set it and forget it’ technologies for these issues,” Feerst argues. “At best, it’s possible to imagine a state of dynamic equilibrium — eternal cops and robbers.”

That is exactly right. It’s a never-ending learning/coping process, as I noted in my earlier paper in the AEI series: “There is no Goldilocks formula that can get things just right” when it comes to many tech governance issues, especially content moderation issues. Muddling through is the new normal. And the exact same process is now unfolding for Metaverse content moderation. Algorithmic moderation helps us weed out the worst stuff and gives us a better chance of letting humans — with their limited time and resources — deal with the hardest problems (and problem-makers) out there.

Sometimes the content infractions may even be accidental. Here’s another embarrassing story involving me. I was asked last year to sit in on a VR meeting about content moderation in the Metaverse. I was wearing my headset and sitting at a virtual table with about 8 other people in the room. Back in my real-world office, I had my coffee mug sitting far to the right of me on a side table. After about 45 minutes of discussion, I realized that every time I reached way over to my right to grab my coffee mug in the real-world, my virtual self’s hand was reaching over and touching the crotch of the guy sitting next to me in the Metaverse! It looked like I was fondling the dude virtually! What a nightmare. I’m surprised someone didn’t report me for virtual harassment. I would have had to plead the coffee mug defense and throw myself on the mercy of the Meta-Court judge or jury.

Ok, so that’s a funny story, but you can imagine little mistakes like this happening all throughout the Metaverse as we slowly figure out how to interact normally in new virtual environments. We’ll have to rely on users and algorithms flagging some of the worst behaviors and then have humans evaluate the tough calls to the best of their abilities. But let’s not be fooled into thinking that humans can handle all these questions because the task at hand is too overwhelming and expensive for many platform operators. “Ten thousand employees here, ten thousand ergonomic mouse pads there, and pretty soon we’re talking about real money,” Feerst notes. “This is what the cost of running a platform looks like, once you’ve internalized the harmful and inexorable externalities we’ve learned about the hard way over the past decade.”

The Problem with “Explainability”

The key takeaway here is that content moderation at scale is messy, confusing, and unsatisfying. Do platforms need to be more transparent about how their algorithms work to do this screening? Yes, they do. But perfect transparency or “explainability” is impossible.

It’s hard to perfectly explain how algorithms work for the same reason it’s hard for your car mechanic to explain to you exactly how your car engine works. Except it’s even harder with algorithmic systems. As Feerst notes:

AI outputs can be hard to explain. In some cases, even the creators or managers of a particular product are no longer sure why it is functioning a particular way. It’s not like the formula to Coca-Cola; it’s constantly evolving. Requirements to “disclose the algorithm” may not help much if it means that companies will simply post a bunch of not especially meaningful code.

And if explainability was mandated by law, it’d instantly be gamed by still other troublemakers out there. A mandate to make AI perfectly transparent is an open invitation to every scam artist in the world to game platforms with new phishing attacks, spammy scams, and other such nonsense. Again, this is the “crafty adversaries” problem at work. Endless cat-and-mouse or, as Feerst says “eternal cops and robbers.”

So, in sum, content moderation — including algorithmic content moderation — is a nightmarishly difficult task, and there is no Goldilocks formula available to us that will help us get things just right. It’ll always just be endless experimentation and iteration with lots and lots of failures along the way. Learning by doing and constantly refining our systems and procedures is the key to helping us muddle through.

And if you think government will somehow figure this all out through some sort of top-down regulatory regime, ask yourself how well that worked out for Analog Era efforts to create “community standards” for broadcast radio and television. And then multiply that problem by a zillion. It cannot be done without severely undermining free speech and innovation. We don’t want to go down that path.

____________

Additional Reading

· “Again, We Should Not Ban All Teens from Social Media”

· “The Classical Liberal Approach to Digital Media Free Speech Issues”

· “AI Eats the World: Preparing for the Computational Revolution and the Policy Debates Ahead”

· “Left and right take aim at Big Tech — and the First Amendment“

· “When It Comes to Fighting Social Media Bias, More Regulation Is Not the Answer“

· “FCC’s O’Rielly on First Amendment & Fairness Doctrine Dangers“

· “Conservatives & Common Carriage: Contradictions & Challenges“

· “The Great Deplatforming of 2021“

· “A Good Time to Re-Read Reagan’s Fairness Doctrine Veto“

· “Sen. Hawley’s Radical, Paternalistic Plan to Remake the Internet“

· “How Conservatives Came to Favor the Fairness Doctrine & Net Neutrality“

· “Sen. Hawley’s Moral Panic Over Social Media“

· “The White House Social Media Summit and the Return of ‘Regulation by Raised Eyebrow’“

· “The Not-So-SMART Act“

· “The Surprising Ideological Origins of Trump’s Communications Collectivism“

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/09/13/no-goldilocks-formula-for-content-moderation-in-social-media-or-the-metaverse-but-algorithms-still-help/feed/ 2 77041 Podcast: What’s Wrong with Industrial Policy? https://techliberation.com/2022/02/18/podcast-whats-wrong-with-industrial-policy/ https://techliberation.com/2022/02/18/podcast-whats-wrong-with-industrial-policy/#comments Fri, 18 Feb 2022 15:54:29 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76954

I recently joined Rep. Dan Crenshaw on his Hold These Truths podcast to discuss, “What’s Wrong with Industrial Policy.” We chatted for 25 minutes about a wide range of issues related to the the growing push for grandiose industrial policy schemes in the US, including the massive new 3,000-page, $350 billion “COMPETES Act” legislation that recently passed in the House and which will soon be conferenced with a Senate bill that already passed.

On the same day this podcast was released this week, I also had a new op-ed appear in  The Hill on “The Coming Industrial Policy Hangover.” In both that essay and the podcast with Rep. Crenshaw, I stress that, beyond all the other problems with these new industrial policy measures, no one is talking about the fiscal cost of it all. As I note:

In the rush to pass legislation, we’ve barely heard a peep about the $250-$350 billion price tag. This follows a massive splurge of recent government borrowing, which led to the U.S. national debt hitting another lamentable new record: $30 trillion. China already owns over $1 trillion of that debt, making one wonder if we’re really countering China by adopting a massive, new and unfunded industrial policy that they will end up financing indirectly.

Read my oped for more details and for a deeper dive of what’s wrong with the bills, see my earlier essay here on “Thoughts on the America COMPETES Act: The Most Corporatist & Wasteful Industrial Policy Ever.”

Additional Reading from Adam Thierer on Industrial Policy:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/02/18/podcast-whats-wrong-with-industrial-policy/feed/ 1 76954 New Mercatus Center Report on Industrial Policy https://techliberation.com/2021/11/17/new-mercatus-center-report-on-industrial-policy/ https://techliberation.com/2021/11/17/new-mercatus-center-report-on-industrial-policy/#comments Wed, 17 Nov 2021 21:21:29 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76921

The Mercatus Center has just released a new special study that I co-authored with Connor Haaland entitled, “Does the United States Need a More Targeted Industrial Policy for High Tech?” With industrial policy reemerging as a major issue — and with Congress still debating a $250 billion, 2,400-page industrial policy bill — our report does a deep dive into the history various industrial policy efforts both here and abroad over the past half century. Our 64-page survey of the historical record leads us to conclude that, “targeted industrial policy programs cannot magically bring about innovation or economic growth, and government efforts to plan economies from the top down have never had an encouraging track record.”

We zero in on the distinction between general versus targeted economic development efforts and argue that:

whether we are referring to federal, state, or local planning efforts—the more highly tar­geted development efforts typically involve many tradeoffs that are often not taken into consider­ation by industrial policy advocates. Downsides include government steering of public resources into unproductive endeavors, as well as more serious problems, such as cronyism and even corruption.

We also stress the need to more tightly define the term “industrial policy” to ensure rational evaluation is even possible. We argue that, “industrial policy has intentionality and directionality, which distinguishes it from science policy, innovation policy, and economic policy more generally.” We like the focus definition used by economist Nathaniel Lane, who defines industrial policy as “intentional political action meant to shift the industrial structure of an economy.”

Our report examines the so-called “Japan model” of industrial policy that was all the rage in intellectual circles a generation ago and then compares it to the Chinese and European industrial policy efforts of today, which many pundits claim that the US needs to mimic. We find problems with those models and argue that:

America’s goal should not be to “imitate China” or “copy its playbook” when it comes to targeted industrial policy and technological governance of AI and other high-tech sectors. Europe’s approach, although not as heavy-handed, is also not a good model. Not only would the Chinese and European approaches potentially undermine the permissionless innovation ethos that made America’s tech companies become global powerhouses, but expanded industrial policy efforts would entail massive state bets on risky ventures using taxpayer resources.

We discuss the public choice dynamics surrounding many industrial development efforts and note that, “what is often described as “industrial policy” is in reality nothing more than industrial politics.” We highlight how many of the largest industrial policy programs have been prone to highly inefficient contracting procedures and massive cost overruns. Sometimes outright corruption even becomes a problem with some of the largest programs. But that’s not the only cost. Sometimes, in their effort to promote specific industrial outputs or outcomes, government undermines the very innovation they hope to spur.

When governments repress the entrepreneurial spirit of their most innovative creators and companies, this is bound to have negative ramifications for long-term competitiveness and economic growth. Heavy-handed industrial policy schemes can contribute to this sort of repression as the state gains more levers of control over private companies.

We note how that has certainly been the case in the European Union, where “countries have adopted a highly precautionary regulatory model for new digital sectors that shuns risk-taking and focuses on maximizing other values at the expense of disruptive change. This approach has resulted in fewer national champions, and it has cost Europe in terms of global competitive advantage,” we note. We also highlight the long string of failed European industrial policy programs.

Ours is not a doctrinaire analysis; we take a pragmatic approach to the evaluation of industrial policy programs and proposals. Some of them may succeed based simply on the reality that “if government officials roll the proverbial industrial policy dice enough times, some bets are bound to pay off, at least indirectly.” But any serious analysis of these efforts, we argue, must fully weigh the trade-offs associated with the potential tax and compliance burdens associated with funding them to begin with.

But we admit that, “industrial policy will always be with us to some extent, given the sheer size of government and the many existing programs already devoted to economic development or high-tech initiatives.” Toward that end, we wrap up the paper with a variety of high-level recommendations about industrial policy. We highlight how:

The priority should be generalized economic development over targeted development efforts. The most important thing that policymakers can do to boost economic opportunities is to create a legal and regulatory environment that is conducive to entrepreneurship, investment, innovation, and free trade.  [. . . ] government should focus on setting the table for entrepreneurial activity instead of trying to determine everything on the plate. To put this differently, policymakers need to avoid the “fun stuff” and focus on “boring” issues that often get neglected.

We apply these insights to the ongoing debate over regional economic development and the specific effort currently underway at the federal level to encourage “regional innovation hubs,” as federal and state lawmakers look to create “the next Silicon Valley” elsewhere.

In terms of our nation’s overall investment in R&D, we note that “[t]he United States has the most vibrant venture capital (VC) market in the world, and this market helps support risky ventures without gambling with taxpayer dollars.” While some bemoan the fact that private enterprise provides the bulk of R&D expenditures in the US – and that amount is increasing relative to governmental sources – this is actually something that should be celebrated. The strength of private-funded R&D helps set the US apart and make investment markets nimbler and more responsive to real-world needs. Moreover, global unicorn growth in the US continues at a healthy clip. From 2010 to mid-2021, the US created 53 percent of global unicorns, compared with 20 percent for China. These facts are often overlook in industrial policy debates.

While our paper is comprehensive, admittedly, there are some things we leave out of the analysis or do not spend as much time discussing. For example, there is a never-ending debate about the relationship between national security and industrial policy that raises many hard questions. A nation needs military hardware to defend itself, and almost every program to provide weapons and military equipment in the US involve private contracting to get them. These are the biggest industrial policy programs at all, but we don’t spend a lot of time focus on them in our paper because that would have taken us far afield.

We have a short section on these issues that notes how “defense-related programs have also been prone to highly inefficient contracting procedures and massive cost overruns.” Many of these programs remain vital, however, and must find a way to make them more efficient and cost-effective. But there are still other issues related to national security and industrial policy that raise hard questions, including: export or import controls, trade restrictions, and more. These continue to be challenging issues and I personally hope to revisit some of them in upcoming essays.

With Congress still trying to finalize its mega industrial policy bill, our paper is relevant to the short-term debate over these issues. But our hope is that this paper offers a big-picture, long-term framework for thinking through the challenges associated with industrial policy issues both here and abroad.

Here is the outline of the paper and, again, you can find it at this link. (The report can also be found on SSRN & Research Gate).

  1. Introduction: Definitional Challenges 5
  2. Calls for Expanding Industrial Policy to Boost High-Tech Innovation 8
  3. Some (Quickly Forgotten) Recent History 11
  4. The Romantic View of Industrial Policy vs. Reality 15
  5. The Challenge of Creating “National Champions”: Europe’s Failures 20
  6. Adverse Effects of State-Led Promotion: The China Model Examined 23
  7. Where Does Real Competitive Advantage Come From? 27
  8. Industrial Policy Did Not Give Us the Internet and the iPhone 33
  9. Evaluating Other Industrial Policy Efforts 39
  10. Using Competitions and Prizes to Encourage Innovation More Efficiently 46
  11. Conclusion: Generality Is Better Than Targeting

Additional Reading:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2021/11/17/new-mercatus-center-report-on-industrial-policy/feed/ 1 76921 Skeptical Takes on Expansive Industrial Policy Efforts https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/skeptical-takes-on-expansive-industrial-policy-efforts/ https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/skeptical-takes-on-expansive-industrial-policy-efforts/#comments Mon, 15 Mar 2021 17:09:11 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76845

[Last updated 3/25/22]

Industrial Policy is a red-hot topic once again with many policymakers and pundits of different ideological leanings lining up to support ambitious new state planning for various sectors — especially 5G, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors. A remarkably bipartisan array of people and organizations are advocating for government to flex its muscle and begin directing more spending and decision-making in various technological areas. They all suggest some sort of big plan is needed, and it is not uncommon for these industrial policy advocates to suggest that hundreds of billions will need to be spent in pursuit of those plans.

Others disagree, however, and I’ll be using this post to catalog some of their concerns on an ongoing basis. Some of the criticisms listed here are portions of longer essays, many of which highlight other types of steps that governments can take to spur innovative activities. Industrial policy is an amorphous term with many definitions of a broad spectrum of possible proposals. Almost everyone believes in  some form of industrial policy if you define the term broadly enough. But, as I argued in a September 2020 essay “On Defining ‘Industrial Policy‘,” I believe it is important to narrow the focus of the term such that we can continue to use the term in a rational way. Toward that end, I believe a proper understanding of industrial policy refers to targeted and directed efforts to plan for specific future industrial outputs and outcomes.

The collection of essays below is merely an attempt to highlight some of the general concerns about the most ambitious calls for expansive industrial policy, many of which harken back to debates I was covering in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when I first started a career in policy analysis. During that time, Japan and South Korea were the primary countries of concern cited by industrial policy advocates. Today, it is China’s growing economic standing that is fueling calls for ambitious state-led targeted investments in “strategic” sectors and technologies. To a lesser extent, grandiose European industrial policy proposals are also prompting new US counter-proposals.

All this activity is what has given rise to many of the critiques listed below. If you have suggestions for other essays I might add to this list, please feel free to pass them along. FYI: There’s no particular order here.

Scott Lincicome and Huan Zhu, “Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary,” Cato Institute Working Paper, June 16, 2021.

[I]ndustrial policy – properly defined – has an extensive and underwhelming history in the United States, featuring high costs (seen and unseen), failed objectives, and political manipulation. Surely, not every U.S. industrial policy effort has ended in disaster, but facts here and abroad argue strongly against new government efforts to boost “critical” industries and workers and thereby fix alleged market failures. Such efforts warrant intense skepticism – skepticism that today is unfortunately in short supply.

Adam Thierer, “Industrial Policy as Casino Economics,” The Hill, July 12, 2021.

While some government investments will always be necessary, policymakers engaging in casino economics means bad industrial policy bets and taxpayer money squandered on risky ventures best made by private actors. We need to keep Uncle Sam’s gambling habits in check.

Adam Thierer, “Thoughts on the America COMPETES Act: The Most Corporatist & Wasteful Industrial Policy Ever,” Technology Liberation Front, January 26, 2022.

As far as industrial policy measures go, the COMPETES Act is one of the most ambitious and expensive central planning efforts in American history. It represents the triumph of top-down, corporatist, techno-mercantilist thinking over a more sensible innovation policy rooted in bottom-up competition, entrepreneurialism, private investment, and free trade.

Adam Thierer & Connor Haaland, “Does the US Need a More Targeted Industrial Policy for AI & High-Tech?” Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Special Study, November 2021.

This paper considers how both the recent history of high-tech industrial policy efforts at the national and international level—as well as some state and local economic development efforts in the United States—might better inform the wisdom of proposed efforts for AI or other high-tech sectors. That history is spotted with some limited successes alongside a long string of costly failures. We explore the reasons for those failures and recommend that the US refocus on the policy prerequisites that helped give rise to the computing and internet revolutions: a more generalized approach to economic development rooted in light-touch regulation and taxation of emerging technology.

Samuel Gregg, “Can America Build A Broad-Based Economy?”  Law & Liberty, March 1, 2022

Of course, if a government decides to put enough money and resources behind a given industrial policy, it will likely produce some results. Yet the same is true of the gambler. If she stays in the casino long enough and spends enough money, she will win a few hands of cards. But the odds are that she will also lose a great deal of money, especially if she is as inept a gambler as the government is maladroit at identifying industry trends or entrepreneurial opportunities. Moreover, just as a compulsive gambler’s behavior will have numerous negative effects on her family’s well-being, so too does industrial policy risk inflicting wider damage upon a nation’s economy and political system. The harms range from gross misallocations of resources to the rampant cronyism and rent-seeking that seems inseparable from industrial policy (which, I again note, its advocates studiously avoid discussing), to name just a few.

Phil Gramm & Mike Solon, “Peace Through Strength Requires Economic Freedom,” Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2022.

The America Competes Act is the House’s effort to outdo the Chinese Communist Party’s latest five-year plan. The 2,900-page bill would make an old Soviet commissar blush.  [. . . ] America’s success in the world economy has never depended on industrial policy or government subsidies. It has come from the relative absence of government planning and subsidies. This is hardly news. The U.S. government provided support for the efforts of Samuel Langley, the greatest aviation expert of the 1890s, in his effort to make America first in powered flight. His manned Aerodrome flopped into the Potomac River. It was the Wright brothers, two unsubsidized but determined bicycle makers from Dayton, Ohio, who flew at Kitty Hawk, N.C., and changed the world.

Scott Lincicome, “Moving Fast and Breaking Things,” Capitolism, February 2, 2022.

Adam Thierer, “The Coming Industrial Policy Hangover,”  The Hill, February 16, 2022.

In the rush to pass legislation, we’ve barely heard a peep about the $250-$350 billion price tag. This follows a massive splurge of recent government borrowing, which led to the U.S. national debt hitting another lamentable new record: $30 trillion. China already owns over $1 trillion of that debt, making one wonder if we’re really countering China by adopting a massive, new and unfunded industrial policy that they will end up financing indirectly.

Podcast: “What’s Wrong with Industrial Policy,” Hold These Truths with Rep. Dan Crenshaw, February 16, 2022.

Tad DeHaven and Adam Thierer, “ The Military-Industrial Complex Offers a Cautionary Tale for Industrial Policy Planning,” Discourse, March 25, 2022.

Wayne Crews, “What To Do Instead Of The America COMPETES Act,” Forbes, February 2, 2022.

All this spending and expansion of the federal government, atop which our leaders would lay the America COMPETES Act and doubtless its own accompanying guidebook, has massive, ignored regulatory effects. Trillions in government spending (”investment”) have altered and will alter the entire trajectory and competitive environment of industries engaged in large-scale enterprises and transactions. This removes vast swaths of business activity from free competitive enterprise altogether, and creates displacements and distortions such that the restoration of free enterprise becomes a near-impossible disentanglement. The result is, after 100 years of big government and seduction of and fusion with big business, the greatest endeavors—from infrastructure to artificial intelligence, from smart cities to space—now consist of “partnerships” with governments rather than free enterprise, at scales and at costs so gigantic they can only be ignored.

Adam Thierer, “‘Japan Inc.’ and Other Tales of Industrial Policy Apocalypse,” Discourse, June 28, 2021.

Perhaps the most ironic indictment of industrial policy punditry lies in the way all the earlier books and essays about Japanese planning not only failed to forecast the many flops associated with it, but also did not foresee China as a potential future economic juggernaut. [. . .] What might that tell us about the ability of experts to predict the future course of countries and economies?

Adam Thierer, “Can Government Reproduce Silicon Valley Everywhere?”  Technology Liberation Front, September 12, 2021.

government efforts to artificially try to create regional innovation hubs in a top-down, technocratic fashion will almost certainly persist. As they do, some will argue that this time will be different! Perhaps, but it is more likely that the past is prologue; these new hubs will likely cause federal politicians to jockey for position to have their regions named one of the winners and get a big cut of all the new high-tech pork being served up by Washington.

Weifeng Zhong, “Beijing Can’t Make Sense of Biden’s China Strategy. Can Biden?” Washington Examiner, July 01, 2021.

America is not China, and it would be a fatal mistake to equate competing with China with imitating what China does. Doing so would risk the advantageous U.S. position as the world’s chief innovator, whose ideas are turned into products by vibrant private sectors both domestically and internationally.

Mike Watson, “Industrial Policy in the Real World,” National Affairs, Summer 2021.

Given the nature of industrial policymaking in the United States, there’s little reason to believe future attempts at industrial planning will result in a more coherent, rational, or strategic allocation of resources than they have in the past. [. . .] In short, industrial policy in the United States cannot be steered by a small group of enlightened individuals, because a small group of enlightened individuals will never be at the helm. Indeed, in some sense, there is no single “helm” to speak of.
 

Samuel Gregg, “Industrial Policy Mythology Confronts Economic Reality,” Law & Liberty, September 3, 2021.

If prizes in policy debates were given out for persistence, those advocating for more widespread use of industrial policy in America would be first in line. No matter how many times it is pointed out that they don’t understand the nature and workings of comparative advantage; or avoid acknowledging how industrial policy fosters rampant cronyism and corruption; or highlight what they consider examples of countries in which industrial policy has been employed successfully (only to have it demonstrated that it didn’t quite work out the way they suggested), they don’t give up.

Elizabeth Nolan Brown, “If This Is How America COMPETES, We’re Going to Lose,” Reason, January 26, 2022.

the bill can’t simply address one main issue or a few critical needs. Instead, it tries to insert the government into every aspect of all sorts of industries and markets and pretend that bureaucrats can solve complex social and cultural issues.

Chang-Tai Hsieh, “Countering Chinese Industrial Policy Is Counterproductive,” Project Syndicate, September 15, 2021.

US political leaders have long tried to counter Chinese industrial policy. And now they seem to have decided that the best way to do that is to emulate it. But their agenda betrays a profound lack of understanding of the unique challenge posed by China’s coupling of an authoritarian political regime with a dynamic market economy.

Adam Thierer, “Industrial Policy Advocates Should Learn from Don Lavoie,” Discourse, November 5, 2021.

“In light of the inherent deficiencies of central planning,” Lavoie said, “it might be argued that the U.S. should instead try to reduce current government interference with the competitive process to the absolute minimum consistent with other political goals.” It remains wise advice for today’s policymakers.
Image

Anne O. Krueger, “America’s Muddled Industrial Policy,” CGTN, June 25, 2021.

Governments have a poor track record of identifying “winners” – be it a company or a category of technology – whereas private companies have proved better at transforming new discoveries into new products or cost savings. That is why the U.S. state traditionally has stuck to funding basic research.

Eric Boehm, “Massive Subsidies Won’t Solve the Semiconductor Supply Chain Crisis,” Reason, January 28, 2022.

Tracy C. Miller, “The Case for Limiting Government Semiconductor Subsidies,” The Hill, June 26, 2021.

Without the subsidies, firms would be more cautious about building or expanding foundries. If long-term production capacity is truly insufficient, high prices and anticipated profits give firms the right incentives to build or expand and satisfy demand at cost-covering prices.

Scott Lincicome, “The ‘Endless Frontier’ and American Industrial Policy,” Cato Institute Blog, May 26, 2021.

U.S. industrial policy has a long history of struggling to overcome political pressures, just as public choice predicts, and the EFA is no different. None of this means that all legislating is bad, or that politicians don’t at least occasionally vote in the national interest. Instead, the public choice framework simply adds another hurdle—along with things like the “knowledge problem,” seen and unseen costs, and misaligned incentives—to designing and implementing commercial policies specifically intended to beat the admittedly messy and imperfect situation that the market generates. It’s imperative that we understand these risks before supporting policies that, while they might look good on paper, could easily morph into a counterproductive boondoggle—one we’ve seen countless times with respect to U.S. industrial policy.

Daniel W. Drezner, “Is the United States capable of industrial policy in 2021?” Washington Post, June 14, 2021.

To believe that the United States can pursue a high-caliber industrial policy, however, requires assuming a more competent state than I have seen in the past decade.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, “The Nicest Thing I Can Write About Supply Chain Policy,” The Daily Dish, June 10, 2021.

Nevertheless, the Senate just passed a provision for $50 billion to subsidize chip fabrication – something the president had requested – and the House will doubtlessly concur. That might seem like an industry victory, but wait until it realizes that the administration will assume it gives it the right to insist on union jobs, micromanage the design of chips, and dictate the pricing and distribution of the products. Good luck with that. As the definitive volume on policy analysis (Benjamin Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanack) put it, “He that lieth down with dogs shall rise up with fleas.”

Lipton Matthews, “Industrial Policy—a.k.a. Central Planning—Won’t Make America Great,” Mises Wire, November 5, 2021.

Although industrial policy is in vogue, the evidence suggests that it is not necessary for long-term development. Moreover, despite the popularity of industrial policy in China, America remains the world’s economic power, and by following China, it may lose this vaunted position.

Richard Beason, “Japanese Industrial Policy: An Economic Assessment,” National Foundation for American Policy, November 2021.

There is no evidence to support the claim that Japanese industrial policy during the 1955-1990 period enhanced growth rates by sector, industries with economies of scale (greater efficiency when produced in increased amounts), productivity growth or “competitiveness.” The reality of the political process and government spending priorities makes it very difficult for such policies to be effective. Furthermore, even if political pressures had not intervened, it seems questionable to suggest that government policymakers would be better than actual market participants in determining the most efficient allocation of resources to produce the best economic outcomes.

Douglas Irwin, “ Memo to the Biden administration on how to rethink industrial policy,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 2020.

The challenge for policymakers is to identify such industries without succumbing to the notion that every industry is vital to some public objective. For example, the goal of “economic security” is so broadly defined and open-ended that virtually every domestic producer could claim the need for government support on that basis. The risk is that ill-conceived government programs will encourage corrupt behavior in which industries benefit themselves without contributing to national welfare.

Jim Pethokoukis, “Will Biden’s embrace of industrial policy pay off?” AEI Blog, January 15, 2021.

The history of such efforts in advanced capitalist economies gives ample reason for skepticism about the effectiveness of such top-down government planning, from Japanese economic stagnation to the now-mothballed Concorde supersonic jet to France’s failed attempt to create a thriving tech sector. The Internet might seem like the exception that negates the rule, but what turned out to be a successful partnership of government and entrepreneurs didn’t arise out of some master plan from Washington. And what do even the smartest plans look like when filtered through the dodgy quality of American governance? Maybe as an excuse for cronyism and protectionism.

Adam Thierer & Connor Haaland, “Should the U.S. Copy China’s Industrial Policy?” Discourse, March 11, 2021.

America needs to embrace its already vibrant venture capital market, the benefits of basic science and prize competitions, and a light-touch regulatory approach instead of gambling taxpayer dollars on grandiose industrial policy schemes that would likely become boondoggles.

Connor Haaland & Adam Thierer, “Can European-Style Industrial Policies Create Tech Supremacy?” Discourse, February 11, 2021.

Thus far, however, the Europeans don’t have much to show for their attempts to produce home-grown tech champions. Despite highly targeted and expensive efforts to foster a domestic tech base, the EU has instead generated a string of industrial policy failures that should serve as a cautionary tale for U.S. pundits and policymakers, who seem increasingly open to more government-steered innovation efforts.

Phil Levy & Christine McDaniel, “ Does the U.S. Need a Vigorous Industrial Policy?” Discourse, February 16, 2021.

we are certainly hearing new enthusiasm these days about industrial policy. It seems to have proponents or converts on both sides of the aisle. This either means that a new consensus has emerged, or it means that the term is being used so loosely that it has lost its original meaning. I’ll go with the latter; it now means different things to different people.

Wall Street Journal columnist Greg Ip discussing why “ The traditional skepticism toward industrial policy is well deserved.”

The traditional skepticism toward industrial policy is well deserved. Once Washington starts writing checks for semiconductors, other industries may get in line with the outcome determined more by political clout than economic merit. As in shipbuilding, the targeted companies may end up in perpetual need of federal protection and unable to compete internationally

David Ignatius, “The U.S. is quietly mobilizing its economy against China,” Washington Post, March 4, 2021.

The industrial policy the AI commission recommends could unlock talent and innovation. But if officials aren’t careful, government intervention could also afflict our best companies with the dead weight and dysfunction of our broken political system. We need government to spawn brainpower, not bureaucracy.

Veronique de Rugy, “Support for Industrial Policy is Growing,” AIER, January 18, 2020.

Looking at the federal government today tells me that the problems surrounding R&D programs in the past continue today, and will continue tomorrow, because they are simply a consequence of the normal functioning of government. It is hard to wish these problems away, even in the face of the private sector’s “imperfections.” Those arguing for more funding in R&D should proceed with caution.
This bill is proposing to give money with risk-averse restrictions to a risk-averse organization (the NSF) to be dispersed among other risk-averse organizations (Universities) into a system with increasingly risk-averse incentives. Note that I’m not saying “it’s all fubar’d lets burn it to the ground!” but I am suggesting that instead of slamming on the accelerator, we should be asking “what would a tune-up and an oil change look like instead?”

Ryan Bourne, “Do Oren Cass’s Justifications for Industrial Policy Stack Up?”  Cato Commentary, August 15, 2019.

Oren Cass asserts that markets cannot generally allocate resources efficiently by industry. Yet he provides no meaningful metrics to show this is the case, nor shows why his policies would deliver better outcomes. His two main claims about the benefits of a manufacturing sector — “stable employment” and “strong productivity growth” — are directly contradictory. A plethora of evidence suggests as countries’ get richer due to automation and technological improvements, they demand relatively more services, and so the industrial sector declines in employment terms.
Scott Lincicome, “ Manufactured Crisis: ‘Deindustrialization, Free Markets, and National Security,” Cato Policy Analysis No. 907, January 27, 2021.
This skepticism—mostly absent from Washington—is indeed warranted: analyses of the U.S. manufacturing sector and the relationship between trade and national security, as well as the United States’ long and checkered history of security‐​related protectionism, undermine the theoretical justifications for imposing protectionism and industrial policy in the name of national defense. Instead, open trade, freer markets, and global interdependence will in almost all cases produce better outcomes in terms of national security and, most importantly, preventing wars and other forms of armed conflict.
Matthew Lau, “Trudeau government’s ‘industrial policy’ creates all the wrong incentives,” Toronto Sun, March 16, 2021.
]]> https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/skeptical-takes-on-expansive-industrial-policy-efforts/feed/ 4 76845 The Case for Sanctuary Cities in Many Different Contexts https://techliberation.com/2020/01/02/the-case-for-sanctuary-cities-in-many-different-contexts/ https://techliberation.com/2020/01/02/the-case-for-sanctuary-cities-in-many-different-contexts/#respond Thu, 02 Jan 2020 22:09:42 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76644

[Cross-posted to Medium.]

The spread of “sanctuary cities”—local governments that resist federal laws or regulations in some fashion, and typically for strongly-held moral reasons—is one of the most interesting and controversial governance developments of recent decades. Unfortunately, the concept receives only a selective defense from people when it fits their narrow political objectives, such as sanctuary movements for immigration and gun rights.

But there is broader case to be made for sanctuaries in many different contexts as a way to encourage experiments in alternative governance models and just let people live lives of their choosing. The concept faces many challenges in practice, however, and I remain skeptical that sanctuary cities will ever scale up and become a widespread governance phenomenon. There’s just too much for federal officials to lose and they likely will crush any particular sanctuary movement that gains serious steam.

Sanctuary Cities as Political Civil Disobedience

First, let’s think about what local officials are really doing when they declare themselves a sanctuary. (Because they can be formed by city, county, or state governments, I will just use “sanctuaries” as a shorthand throughout this essay.)

Academics use the term “rule departure” when referencing “deliberate failures, often for conscientious reasons, to discharge the duties of one’s office.” [Joel Feinberg, “Civil Disobedience in the Modern World,” in Humanities in Society, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1979, p 37.] In this sense, sanctuary cities could be viewed as a type of collective civil disobedience by public officials because these governance arrangements are typically defended on moral grounds and represent an active form of resistance to policies imposed by higher-ups.

Rule departure and political civil disobedience can be carried out by individual government officials or entire governing bodies. Back in the 1970s, for example, some judges refused to convict Vietnam-era “draft dodgers,” even though laws made it clear that they were supposed to be punished. And, although it is rare, juries have sometimes nullified laws that they find unconscionable.

When a legislature engages in rule departure, it is often in opposition to federal policies that local officials feel is unfair or unethical. They may even declare themselves in a sort of open rebellion against a very specific directive and steadfastly refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of the policies being imposed from above. This is how modern sanctuaries developed. In my forthcoming book, Evasive Entrepreneurs & the Future of Governance, I discuss a couple of prominent recent examples.

When state lawmakers refuse to enforce federal marijuana restrictions because officials in those states favor decriminalization that represents rule departure between levels of government. Similarly, in May 2018, Vermont became the first state to legalize the importation prescription drugs from Canada in an attempt to gain access to lower-priced drugs for its citizens. That policy departed from federal law, which tightly controls the importation of drugs into the US.

Rule departures by city and county governments can be even more daring and far-reaching in effect.  After the Trump Administration took office and announced more restrictive immigration policies, many mayors and local officials promptly announced that they would become sanctuary cities and not follow federal immigration reporting requirements. The number of immigration-related sanctuary cities, counties, and even entire states has grown steadily since then. [The Center for Immigration Studies keeps a running list.]

Even more controversial is the rise of the “Second Amendment sanctuary” movement that resists state or federal firearm restrictions. Virginia cities and counties have been particularly aggressive in declaring themselves gun sanctuaries, but the movement is nationwide and growing fast. Interestingly, the leaders of this movement include many local officials, including some sheriffs, who actively oppose immigration-related sanctuary cities. Conversely, most of the local officials who favor immigration sanctuaries oppose Second Amendment sanctuaries. The only thing unifying officials on either side is a commitment to engage in rule departure for moral reasons.

But here’s the question I want to explore: Why not give both these sanctuary movements (and many others) a chance, regardless of what motivates them?

A Sanctuary for Me, But Not for Thee

Of course, there are few issues that divide the Left and the Right more bitterly these days than immigration and guns, and neither side will accept the moral case for rule departure when the other side is promoting it. Stated differently, while each side will make strong moral claims in favor of rule departure for their pet issue, their defense will not extend to the underlying act of rule departure or political civil disobedience more generally.

And that’s a shame. There is a good case to be made not just for greater localized decision-making and policy experimentation, but also for letting people lives of their own choosing in different governance arrangements.

The idea that we could ever have of one single utopia has always been a silly notion for a simple reason: People are just very different. What would make more sense, the late philosopher Robert Nozick once argued, is a governance arrangement that was truly fit for a pluralistic society. In his 1974 book, Anarchy, State, and Utopia, Nozick made the case for a regime in which citizens could potentially take advantage of many different utopias to better fit their preferred governance arrangements. “Utopia is a framework for utopias, a place where people are at liberty to join together voluntarily to pursue and attempt to realize their own vision of the good life in the ideal community but where no one can impose his own utopian vision upon others,” he said.

I’ve always found this “utopia of utopias” vision enormously compelling in theory but somewhat unrealistic in practice. It is appealing precisely because it rejects any effort to define utopia in a monolithic fashion. A true utopia would reject one-size-fits-all governance schemes and instead promote a framework for optimizing an individual’s ability to choose their preferred governance arrangement (hopefully among many options). “There is no reason to think that there is one community which will serve as ideal for all people,” Nozick noted, “and much reason to think that there is not.”

Indeed, it is likely that my preferred utopia is not yours. What’s my particular sanctuary look like? Adam Smith argued in 1755 that all that was needed for lifting civilization up “from the lowest barbarism” to “the highest degree of opulence” is “peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice; all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things.” More recently, Emily Chamlee-Wright, president of the Institute for Humane Studies, elaborated on this vision when she identified the core elements of a good society as, “a pluralistic and tolerant society in which intellectual and economic progress are the norm, and where individuals and communities flourish in a context of openness, peaceful and voluntary cooperation, and mutual respect.”

That pretty much sums up the utopia or sanctuary I’d like to live in. More concretely, my perfect sanctuary would combine elements of all the real-world sanctuary cities described above. It would give immigrants safe haven and allow everyone to carry firearms openly while also ignoring federal marijuana restrictions and drug importation rules! Moreover, drones would zip through the air delivering goods (regardless of what the FAA said), driverless cars would occupy the roads (regardless of what the DOT said), and citizens with serious illnesses would be more free to try alternative treatments (regardless of what the FDA said).

Of course, I also appreciate that many other people would prefer to live in sanctuaries where government plays are a far more active role. Might it be possible for us all to agree to live peacefully in our separate utopias, yet also remain part of some loosely unified federation? What would help make that model work, Nozick argued, was some sort of minimal state above all the utopias that ensured peace and free movement of people, goods, and information among them. So, you pick your utopia and I’ll pick mine, but let us agree to be free to trade with each other and move to other utopias if we are not satisfied.

That remains a beautiful governance vision to me, and, if nothing else, I hope others would appreciate the potential benefits associated with experimentation in government administration. In his 1970 book, Exit, Voice and Loyalty, the economist and political theorist Albert Hirschman discussed the interplay between “voice” and “exit”—for businesses, organizations, and even governments—and argued that, “exit has an essential role to play in restoring quality performance of government, just as in any organization.”

Sanctuaries represent a form of localized collective voice (opposing specific policy choices made by higher-ups) combined with the implicit threat of some sort of exit. “The chances for voice to function effectively as a recuperation mechanism,” Hirschman argued, “are appreciably strengthened if voice is backed up by the threat of exit, whether it is made openly or whether the possibility of exit is merely well understood to be an element in the situation by all concerned.” I doubt any cities, counties, or states are going to try to completely exit the American republic over the issues that led them to form sanctuaries. Nonetheless, sanctuaries— and even the very threat to form one—can still act as a sort of relief valve that allow citizens to push back against over-zealous edicts from above, while also potentially giving citizens the chance to “shop around” for better jurisdictional governance arrangements.

Haven’t We Already Tried This?

Practically speaking, however, a utopia of utopias must have some limits or else it breaks down under the weight of endless splintering, border disputes, and even the threat of violence. As the Wall Street Journal editorial board argued in a recent essay about sanctuary cities, an atomistic patchwork of breakaway sub-governments could lead to discord and “lawlessness.” And that was in an editorial about Second Amendment sanctuary cities, which the Journal is more ideologically predisposed to favor!

But this is not a completely unfounded concern. Think about American history. Many people forget that America’s current constitution is not our nation’s first. The Articles of Confederation were formulated by the 13 original colonies as they fought for their independence from Great Britain. The Articles were a dismal failure, however, and did not even last a decade. America’s Founders abandoned the Articles because the sole governing agent—Congress—lacked any real power. It couldn’t do much to sustain itself or an army to defend the new nation, which the Articles treated as more of just a collection of territories in “a firm league of friendship with each other.”

More importantly, because states retained all the real power under the Articles, trade skirmishes broke out among them and Congress was virtually powerless to do anything about it. The so-called “league of friendship” threatened to degenerate into endless commercial and political conflicts among loosely joined state sovereigns. The situation grew intolerable and by 1789 the Articles were discarded in favor of a new Constitution that opted for a more tightly integrated union, which would guarantee some basic rights and also help ensure that commerce and people could move freely across state borders.

The durability of this framework remains a remarkable achievement and, in some ways, could be viewed as a more workable “utopia of utopias” than what the Articles of Confederation proposed. Yet, while plenty of people still play up the benefits of devolution and local control, American federalism has been increasingly neutered over the past century. The federal government came to take on more and more authority over even the most trivial parochial matters. States and localities must now beg for freedoms from federal restrictions, but they usually cave fairly quickly and fall in line with federal demands at the mere threat of federal lawmakers just denying them a few grants. Political kickbacks, it turns out, is a remarkably simple way to get subordinate bodies to fall in line and comply with top-down edicts.

Does a Broader Sanctuary Movement Have Any Hope?

Which is why it is remarkable that the sanctuary city movement is still alive at all. It might be because, as George Mason University law professor Ilya Somin has suggested, many Democrats fell back in love with federalism following the election of Donald Trump. Devolution and local control suddenly sounds a lot more appealing to many Dems when it becomes a way to resist federal restrictions on immigration and marijuana decontrol, among other issues.

It could still be the case that these sanctuary movements will be brought to heel in coming years. Current sanctuary efforts provide a good litmus test for just how much real-world policy experimentation federal officials are willing to tolerate. To the extent any particular sanctuary effort gained meaningful momentum and posed a serious challenge to federal power in some fashion, I believe it would likely be crushed eventually. While plenty of politicians provide lip service to the idea “reinventing government” and enhancing local decision-making, the reality is that if we ever had anything approximating actual entrepreneurial government administration in this country, the feds would likely move quickly to snuff it out.

If the Supreme Court took action to limit semi-rebellious efforts like these, it would also discourage future sanctuary city experiments. But it is more likely that, as suggested above, federal officials would just double-down on the “power of the purse” to intimidate state officials into complying—and then presumably force governors and state legislatures to do the dirty work of cracking down on cities and counties that won’t comply with federal demands. President Trump has already tapped this playbook to threaten immigration sanctuaries with Executive Order 13768 of January 25, 2017, which sought to “[e]nsure that jurisdictions that fail to comply with applicable Federal law do not receive Federal funds.” Lower courts have pushed back, however, and a bit of a stalemate has ensued.

If things got really ugly, one could imagine President Trump or a future Democratic president calling in the National Guard to deal with sanctuaries that really pushed the limits on immigration, guns, or anything else disfavored by the powers that be. God help us if we get to that point. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail.

A Dream Deferred

In the meantime, I will persist in making the case for sanctuaries and other forms of experimental government—including charter cities and special economic zones—more generally. I remain a bit of a dreamer and will continue to defend alternative governance visions based on the benefits associated with political decentralization, policy experimentation, and citizen choice. I continue to long for Nozick’s noble vision of, “a society in which utopian experimentation can be tried, different styles of life can be lived, and alternative visions of the good can be individually or jointly pursued.”

Alas, I am also a political realist and I recognize it is highly quixotic to believe that this governance framework will carry the day in the short-term. Selective morality will prevail instead. That is, most people will loudly proclaim the moral imperative of sanctuaries only when it fits their ideological priors, while equally vociferously decrying creative governance alternatives when they do not align with their political values. In the end, both sides will only succeed in crushing the broader dream of more decentralized communities of common interest, simply because a lot pf people just cannot tolerate giving others a little zone of freedom in this world.

And so a “utopia of utopias” will likely remain a dream deferred.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2020/01/02/the-case-for-sanctuary-cities-in-many-different-contexts/feed/ 0 76644 The Entrepreneurial State, Some Brief Comments https://techliberation.com/2019/10/16/the-entrepreneurial-state-some-brief-comments/ https://techliberation.com/2019/10/16/the-entrepreneurial-state-some-brief-comments/#respond Wed, 16 Oct 2019 14:16:50 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76620

Economist Mariana Mazzucato has a full spread in the Wired UK humbling suggesting that she “has a plan to fix capitalism.” The plan is an outgrowth of her 2013 book The Entrepreneurial State , which contends that government involvement in research and development (R&D), loans, and other business subsidies are the true drivers of innovation, not the private sector. Her plan is simple: governments need to do better on funding innovation.  

It goes without saying that the government is massively involved in innovation and for good reason. Open any introductory economics text and you’re likely to see an argument for why. Private actors are short sighted and often fail to plan for the long term by investing in R&D that will lead to technological progress. Basic research also might lead to advances or products outside of the company’s niche. Knowing that they won’t be able to capture all of the gains from research, private entities will choose a lower level of investment than is optimal, leading to a market failure. Governments solve this market failure by allocating resources to expanding scientific and technological knowledge.    

While Mazzucato might be finding an audience with policy makers in the UK and doers in Silicon Valley, innovation economists are a little more wary of her state first theory of innovation. Here are some things worth considering when reading her work:

  1. Innovation and invention are distinct concepts. Bringing a product to market (innovation) involves very different skill sets than ideation (invention). In the 1950s and 1960s, large companies were deeply involved in basic research, but today, businesses have shifted toward their competitive advantage, which lies in supply chain management, marketing, and customer acquisition. As I noted in 2014 of this change: “Increasingly, however, firms are becoming flexible assemblies, connecting skills, capacities, and funding from sources around the world. In this regard, US firms continue to dominate in business model and process innovation.”
  2. A key chapter in this book dissected all of the patents that went into the iPhone. It is unclear if Mazzucato has a theory as to why Apple, not Nokia, RIM or Motorola, became the innovator in the smartphone space. All had access to the same government supported patents, but it was Apple that sparked the revolution. Apple practically commercialized an idea that had been out there for some time. 
  3. Mazzucato’s work aims to bash the Great Man Theory of Innovation, which is needed, but puts in its place the Great State Theory of Innovation. As Artir explains in beautiful detail: “The State was one more actor, like IBM, Bell Labs, Sony, Goodenough, Brody, or Lechner.” 
  4. Mazzucato chides companies for appropriating so much of the total value of government investment, but as William Nordhaus calculated, innovators only capture 2.2 percent of the total surplus . Consumers are the real beneficiaries.
  5. Is Mazzucato sampling on the dependent variable ?     

There is a lot more out there if you want to read up. For starters, I would check out:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2019/10/16/the-entrepreneurial-state-some-brief-comments/feed/ 0 76620 Socialize Journalism in Order to Save It? https://techliberation.com/2019/09/09/socialize-journalism-in-order-to-save-it/ https://techliberation.com/2019/09/09/socialize-journalism-in-order-to-save-it/#comments Mon, 09 Sep 2019 18:39:50 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76590

Originally published on 9/9/19 at The Bridge as, “Beware Calls for Government to ‘Save the Press‘”
—– by Adam Thierer & Andrea O’Sullivan Anytime someone proposes a top-down, government-directed “plan for journalism,” we should be a little wary. Journalism should not be treated like it’s a New Deal-era public works program or a struggling business sector requiring bailouts or an industrial policy plan. Such ideas are both dangerous and unnecessary. Journalism is still thriving in America, and people have more access to more news content than ever before. The news business faces serious challenges and upheaval, but that does not mean central planning for journalism makes sense. Unfortunately, some politicians and academics are once again insisting we need government action to “save journalism.” Senator and presidential candidate Bernie Sanders (D-VT) recently penned an op-ed for the  Columbia Journalism Review that adds media consolidation and lack of union representation to the parade of horrors that is apparently destroying journalism. And a recent University of Chicago report warns that “digital platforms” like Facebook and Google “present formidable new threats to the news media that market forces, left to their own devices, will not be sufficient” to continue providing high-quality journalism. Critics of the current media landscape are quick to offer policy interventions. “The Sanders scheme would add layers of regulatory supervision to the news business,” notes media critic Jack Shafer. Sanders promises to prevent or rollback media mergers, increase regulations on who can own what kinds of platforms, flex antitrust muscles against online distributors, and extend privileges to those employed by media outlets. The academics who penned the University of Chicago report recommend public funding for journalism, regulations that “ensure necessary transparency regarding information flows and algorithms,” and rolling back liability protections for platforms afforded through Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. Both plans feature government subsidies, too. Sen. Sanders proposes “taxing targeted ads and using the revenue to fund nonprofit civic-minded media” as part of a broader effort “to substantially increase funding for programs that support public media’s news-gathering operations at the local level.” The Chicago plan proposed a taxpayer-funded $50 media voucher that each citizen will then be able to spend on an eligible media operation of their choice. Such ideas have been floated before and the problems are still numerous. Apparently, “saving journalism” requires that media be placed on the public dole and become a ward of the state. Socializing media in order to save it seems like a bad plan in a country that cherishes the First Amendment. Forcing taxpayers to fund media outlets will lead to endless political fights. Those fights will grow worse once government officials are forced to decide which outlets qualify as “high-quality news” that can receive the money. Finally, and most problematic, is the fact that government money often comes with strings attached, and that means political meddling with the free speech rights or editorial discretion of journalists and news organizations. Internet: Friend or Foe? Grand plans to “save journalism” are peculiar because they come at a time when citizens enjoy unprecedented access to a veritable cornucopia of media platforms and inputs. A generation ago, critics lamented life in a world of media scarcity; today they complain about “information overload.” But if you asked Americans whether the internet gives them more or less access to media, most would probably quickly respond that it is a no-brainer: The internet provides us with access to content than ever before. Whether it’s accessing traditional platforms like newspapers on their websites or broadcast media on YouTube or browsing new forms of internet-native content like social media reporting and podcasts, we suffer from no shortage of cheap and abundant data sources. The proliferation of smart devices means we can almost always plug in; so long as we have an internet connection, we can learn what’s going on in the world. Given the choice between the abundance of information we have today—messy as it can be—and an era when a handful of anchors delivered just a half-hour of news each evening on one of the Big Three (ABC, CBS, NBC) television networks, and when many communities lacked access to other major news sources, how many of us would actually roll back the clock? Nobody in small town America ever got to read the  New York Times, Wall Street Journal, or other national or global news sources before the internet came along. Despite this virtual ocean of news content for consumers, many in politics, academia, and the media fret that journalism’s best days are behind us. Many of their concerns are actually quite old, however. People were fretting about the “death of news” long before the internet came along. The corresponding policy suggestions were also proposed in the past. Now, as then, these “problems” may be misdiagnosed and the subsequent “solutions” are unlikely to be beneficial. The Long Death of Media Today, many are worried about the effect that Facebook and Google are having on the media landscape. It is true that the social media platforms currently earn around 60 percent of advertising revenues—income that traditional media outlets had traditionally relied upon to shore up subscription revenues. But as many media scholars point out, journalism has always been something of a fraught economic endeavor. Although it is tempting to reminisce over a “golden age” of well-funded journalism, where handsomely paid dirt-diggers held power to account and brought truth to the public, in reality, journalist platforms have long had to adapt and rely on innovative funding sources and business models to stay afloat. Market changes may make some outlets more profitable or sustainable in the short term, but the tendency is generally that journalism struggles to keep the press rolling. We should not, therefore, expect that policies can “fix” a journalism market that was never “fixable” to begin with. The economics of news production and dissemination remain challenging as ever and outlets will constantly need to reinvent themselves and their business models. Similar concerns about the viability of journalism accompanied the rise of yesterday’s technologies: radio, television, and even at-home printing were all at one point thought to be the death knell of traditional print journalism. Yet print has remained, in one form or the other, and outlets learned to use disruptive new technologies to augment their reporting and better serve their audiences. Consumers have more options than ever despite lawmakers’ failure to act on the policy solutions that were offered during previous predictions of the same “death of journalism.” Government Involvement Risks Dependence and Control Proposals to subsidize media, even through a seemingly “decentralized” channel of taxpayer-directed (and funded) vouchers, is tempting for many of those worried about the future of a free press. Ironically, introducing government funding into the provision of media actually increases the risk that the media will be compromised. Journalism subsidy proposals have been suggested for many years. Such plans inevitably invite greater government meddling with a free press. Consider the simple issue of determining which outlets should qualify for a government subsidy. After all, you can’t just allow people to hand out money to anyone. But if you allow a regulator to define eligible “journalists” or “news” you grant government greater power over the press. Controversies will ensue. Should, say, Alex Jones be allowed to receive journalism vouchers? His supporters would think so, and they would have a strong First Amendment argument on their side. What about outfits associated with foreign governments or terrorist-designated groups? Each iteration grants more opportunity for ideological conflict. And what if someone does not want their tax dollars to go to any platform at all? Should they be allowed to just get a tax rebate? Would this not defeat the entire purpose of the program? The political and legal complexities of this seemingly straightforward proposal quickly become clear. Nor are the dangers with government control of media strictly hypothetical. We have several decades of case studies in the form of old Federal Communications Commission (FCC) policies. Whether its merger reviews, media ownership rules, or the fairness doctrine, history shows that when political appointees are granted the power to dictate content control—no matter how roundabout—they will often succumb. Nor or this a partisan phenomenon; authorities in both political parties have taken advantage when they could. A “Solution” Should Not Exacerbate the Problem It Seeks to Overcome Although the internet has increased the content options for consumers, it has also generated new challenges for news providers. This is not a new phenomenon, nor is it insurmountable. It will take time and ingenuity, but innovative news outlets will learn to survive and thrive in this new environment. Patience is difficult, but it is a virtue. We should not allow our anxieties about the current state of a changing market to dictate policies that will ultimately cement government control of media content decisions. Soon enough, innovators will discover a new model that brings new sustainability for journalism for the next little while. And then, when that starts to wane, we’ll hear more calls for the government to get involved once again. It’s tempting, but ultimately self-defeating, and we should reject it now just as we have in the past.
]]> https://techliberation.com/2019/09/09/socialize-journalism-in-order-to-save-it/feed/ 4 76590 new Mercatus paper on “Public Policy for Virtual and Augmented Reality” https://techliberation.com/2017/09/25/new-mercatus-paper-on-public-policy-for-virtual-and-augmented-reality/ https://techliberation.com/2017/09/25/new-mercatus-paper-on-public-policy-for-virtual-and-augmented-reality/#comments Mon, 25 Sep 2017 17:26:15 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76192

The Mercatus Center at George Mason University has just released a new paper on,”Permissionless Innovation and Immersive Technology: Public Policy for Virtual and Augmented Reality,” which I co-authored with Jonathan Camp. This 53-page paper can be downloaded via the Mercatus website, SSRN or Research Gate.

Here is the abstract for the paper:

Immersive technologies such as augmented reality, virtual reality, and mixed reality are finally taking off. As these technologies become more widespread, concerns will likely develop about their disruptive social and economic effects. This paper addresses such policy concerns and contrasts two different visions for governing immersive tech going forward. The paper makes the case for permissionless innovation, or the general freedom to innovate without prior constraint, as the optimal policy default to maximize the benefits associated with immersive technologies. The alternative vision — the so-called precautionary principle — would be an inappropriate policy default because it would greatly limit the potential for beneficial applications and uses of these new technologies to emerge rapidly. Public policy for immersive technology should not be based on hypothetical worst-case scenarios. Rather, policymakers should wait to see which concerns or harms emerge and then devise ex post solutions as needed.

To better explain why precautionary controls on these emerging technologies would be such a mistake, Camp and I provide an inventory of the many VR, AR, and mixed reality applications that are already on the market–or soon could be–and which could provide society with profound benefits. A few examples include: 

  • Education and museums. Immersing users in virtual environments allows Google’s Expedition Pioneer Program to provide 360-degree video tours of famous landmarks and ruins, and museums are already using AR technology to provide interactive content.
  • Worker training and systems monitoring. VR industrial simulators such as ForgeFX are being used to train workers to master a variety of complex tasks, while AR systems can be leveraged to help farmers with crop management from afar.
  • Healthcare. CT scans and MRIs are being converted into 3-D models to perform surgery that was once thought impossible, and the world’s first VR medical training facility opened in London in November of 2016.
  • Engineering. Virtual modeling technology is being combined with VR to allow touring of unbuilt vehicles and buildings, lowering the costs of construction and design.
  • Military. The military has used VR for combat simulations, medic training, flight simulators, vehicle simulators, and even the treatment of PTSD.

And that just scratches the surface of some of the many exciting applications out there. The virtual sky is the limit with immersive tech — so long, that is, as we don’t derail these life-enriching technologies with misguided, fear-based public policy restrictions. Please read the paper for more details.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2017/09/25/new-mercatus-paper-on-public-policy-for-virtual-and-augmented-reality/feed/ 1 76192 Celebrating 20 Years of Internet Free Speech & Free Exchange https://techliberation.com/2017/06/22/celebrating-20-years-of-internet-free-speech-free-exchange/ https://techliberation.com/2017/06/22/celebrating-20-years-of-internet-free-speech-free-exchange/#comments Thu, 22 Jun 2017 14:47:15 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76149

[originally published on Plaintext on June 21, 2017.]

This summer, we celebrate the 20th anniversary of two developments that gave us the modern Internet as we know it. One was a court case that guaranteed online speech would flow freely, without government prior restraints or censorship threats. The other was an official White House framework for digital markets that ensured the free movement of goods and services online.

The result of these two vital policy decisions was an unprecedented explosion of speech freedoms and commercial opportunities that we continue to enjoy the benefits of twenty years later.

While it is easy to take all this for granted today, it is worth remembering that, in the long arc of human history, no technology or medium has more rapidly expanded the range of human liberties — both speech and commercial liberties — than the Internet and digital technologies. But things could have turned out much differently if not for the crucially important policy choices the United States made for the Internet two decades ago.

First, on June 26, 1997, the Supreme Court handed down its landmark decision in Reno v. ACLU, which struck down the Communications Decency Act’s provisions seeking to regulate online content under the old broadcast media standard. The Court concluded that there was “no basis for qualifying the level of First Amendment scrutiny that should be applied to this medium” and rejected the congressional effort to pigeonhole this exciting new medium into the archaic censorship regimes of the past.

The Reno decision was tremendously important in protecting online speakers from the chilling effect of government “indecency” regulations. The decision also set a strong legal precedent and was cited in countless subsequent decisions involving not only online speech, but also efforts to regulate video game content.

Second, in July 1997, the Clinton Administration released The Framework for Global Electronic Commerce, a document that outlined the US government’s new policy approach toward the Internet and the emerging digital economy. The Framework was a bold vision statement that endorsed comprehensive online freedom of exchange, saying that “the private sector should lead [and] the Internet should develop as a market driven arena not a regulated industry.” The Administration rejected a restrictive regulatory regime for commercial activities and instead recommended reliance on civil society, contractual negotiations, voluntary agreements, and industry self-regulation.

To “avoid undue restrictions on electronic commerce,” the vision statement recommended that “parties should be able to enter into legitimate agreements to buy and sell products and services across the Internet with minimal government involvement or intervention.” But, “[w]here governmental involvement is needed, its aim should be to support and enforce a predictable, minimalist, consistent and simple legal environment for commerce.”

Taken together, the Reno decision and the Clinton Administration’s Framework acted as a Magna Carta moment for the Internet and digital technologies. It signaled that “permissionless innovation” would become America’s governance stance toward online speech and commerce.

As I defined it in a book on the subject, permissionless innovation, “refers to the notion that experimentation with new technologies and business models should generally be permitted by default. Unless a compelling case can be made that a new invention will bring serious harm to society, innovation should be allowed to continue unabated and problems, if any develop, can be addressed later.” The primary advantage of permissionless innovation as a governance disposition is that it sends a clear green light to citizens telling them they are at liberty to pursue their own interests and passions, free from the suffocating grip of prior restraints on free speech and free exchange.

But the Reno decision and the Clinton Administration’s Framework are not the only critical policy decisions that helped enshrine permissionless innovation as the lodestar of online policy in the US. In the mid-1990s, the Clinton Administration made the decision to allow open commercialization of the Internet, which was previously just the domain of government agencies and university researchers. Even more crucially, when Congress passed and President Bill Clinton signed into law the Telecommunications Act of 1996, lawmakers made it clear that traditional analog-era communications and media regulatory regimes would generally not be applied to the Internet.

The Telecom Act also included an obscure provision known as “Section 230,” which immunized online intermediaries from onerous liability for the content and communications that traveled over their networks. Section 230 was hugely important in that it let online speech and commerce flourish without the constant threat of frivolous lawsuits looming overhead. Internet scholar David Post has argued that “it is impossible to imagine what the Internet ecosystem would look like today without [Section 230]. Virtually every successful online venture that emerged after 1996 — including all the usual suspects, viz. Google, Facebook, Tumblr, Twitter, Reddit, Craigslist, YouTube, Instagram, eBay, Amazon — relies in large part (or entirely) on content provided by their users, who number in the hundreds of millions, or billions,” he notes. It is unlikely that the vibrant marketplace of online speech and commerce we enjoy today could have existed without the protections afforded by Section 230.

Finally, in 1998, another important legislative development occurred when Congress passed the Internet Tax Freedom Act, which blocked all levels of government in the US from imposing discriminatory taxes on the Internet. That made it clear that the Net would not be milked as a “cash cow” the way previous communications systems had been.

So, let’s recap how policymakers generally got policy right for the Internet in the mid-1990s by enshrining permissionless innovation as the law of the land:

  • The Executive Branch set the tone for online freedom by fully privatizing the underlying network and then establishing a governance vision based upon minimal government interference with online speech and exchange.
  • The Legislative Branch generally endorsed the Clinton Administration’s vision for the Internet and digital technologies by ensuring that new policies would not be based upon the failed regulatory and tax policies of the past.
  • The Judicial Branch upheld the centrality of the First Amendment in the Information Age and made it clear that this new medium for speech would be granted the strongest protection against government encroachments on freedom of speech and expression.

The combined effect of these wise, bipartisan policy decisions was that the Net and digital tech were “born free” instead of being born into regulatory captivity. We continue to enjoy the fruits of these freedoms today as citizens here in the US and across the world take advantage of the unprecedented ability to connect and communicate to pursue their passions and interests as they see fit.

There’s still more work to be done, however. Online platforms and digital technologies continue to come under attack from regulatory activists both here and abroad. Many governments continue to push back against these online speech and commercial freedoms, meaning we’ll need to redouble our efforts to highlight and defend the benefits of preserving these important victories.

Finally, as the underlying drivers of the Digital Revolution continue to spread into other segments of the economy, these freedoms will come into conflict with older top-down regulatory regimes for automobiles, aviation, medical technology, finance, and much more. This will create an epic conflict of governance visions between the Internet’s permissionless innovation model versus the precautionary, command-and-control regulatory regimes of the industrial age. We already see tension at work in policy deliberations over the Internet of Things, “big data,” driverless cars, commercial drones, robotics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, virtual reality, the sharing economy, and others.

If policymakers hope to preserve and extend the benefits of the hard-fought victories of the Internet’s past twenty years, they will need to restate and reinvigorate their commitment to permissionless innovation to help spur the next great technological revolutions in these and other fields.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2017/06/22/celebrating-20-years-of-internet-free-speech-free-exchange/feed/ 1 76149 Nominees for The Best & Worst Tech Policy Essays of 2014 https://techliberation.com/2014/12/15/nominees-for-the-best-worst-tech-policy-essays-of-2014/ https://techliberation.com/2014/12/15/nominees-for-the-best-worst-tech-policy-essays-of-2014/#comments Mon, 15 Dec 2014 19:34:54 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74083

Over the course of the year, I collect some of my favorite (and least favorite) tech policy essays and put them together in an end-of-year blog post so I will remember notable essays in the future. (Here’s my list from 2013.) Here are some of the best tech policy essays I read in 2014 (in chronological order).

  • Joel Mokyr – “The Next Age of Invention,” City Journal, Winter 2014. (An absolutely beautiful refutation of the technological pessimism that haunts our age. Mokry concludes by noting that, “technology will continue to develop and change human life and society at a rate that may well dwarf even the dazzling developments of the twentieth century. Not everyone will like the disruptions that this progress will bring. The concern that what we gain as consumers, viewers, patients, and citizens, we may lose as workers is fair. The fear that this progress will create problems that no one can envisage is equally realistic. Yet technological progress still beats the alternatives; we cannot do without it.” Mokyr followed it up with a terrific August 8 Wall Street Journal oped, “What Today’s Economic Gloomsayers Are Missing.“)
  • Michael Moynihan – “ Can a Tweet Put You in Prison? It Certainly Will in the UK ,”  The Daily Beast , January 23, 2014. (Great essay on the right and wrong way to fight online hate. Here’s the kicker: “There is a presumption that ugly ideas are contagious and if the already overburdened police force could only disinfect the Internet, racism would dissipate. This is arrant nonsense.”)
  • Hanni Fakhoury –  “ The U.S. Crackdown on Hackers Is Our New War on Drugs,” Wired , January 23, 2014. (“We shouldn’t let the government’s fear of computers justify disproportionate punishment. . . . It’s time for the government to learn from its failed 20th century experiment over-punishing drugs and start making sensible decisions about high-tech punishment in the 21st century.”)
  • Carole Cadwalladr – “Meet Cody Wilson, Creator of the 3D-gun, Anarchist, Libertarian,” Guardian/Observer, February 8, 2014. (Entertaining profile of one of the modern digital age’s most fascinating characters. “There are enough headlines out there which ask: Is Cody Wilson a terrorist? Though my favourite is the one that asks: ‘Cody Wilson: troll, genius, patriot, provocateur, anarchist, attention whore, gun nut or Second Amendment champion.’ Though it could have added, ‘Or b) all of the above?'”)

And my nominees for Worst Tech Policy Essays of 2014 go to:

 

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/12/15/nominees-for-the-best-worst-tech-policy-essays-of-2014/feed/ 1 74083 The Debate over the Sharing Economy: Talking Points & Recommended Reading https://techliberation.com/2014/09/26/the-debate-over-the-sharing-economy-talking-points-recommended-reading/ https://techliberation.com/2014/09/26/the-debate-over-the-sharing-economy-talking-points-recommended-reading/#comments Fri, 26 Sep 2014 15:40:11 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74792

The sharing economy is growing faster than ever and becoming a hot policy topic these days. I’ve been fielding a lot of media calls lately about the nature of the sharing economy and how it should be regulated. (See latest clip below from the Stossel show on Fox Business Network.) Thus, I sketched out some general thoughts about the issue and thought I would share them here, along with some helpful additional reading I have come across while researching the issue. I’d welcome comments on this outline as well as suggestions for additional reading. (Note: I’ve also embedded some useful images from Jeremiah Owyang of Crowd Companies.)

1) Just because policymakers claim that regulation is meant to protect consumers does not mean it actually does so.

  1. Cronyism/ Rent-seeking: Regulation is often “captured” by powerful and politically well-connected incumbents and used to their own benefit. (+ Lobbying activity creates deadweight losses for society.)
  2. Innovation-killing: Regulations become a formidable barrier to new innovation, entry, and entrepreneurism.
  3. Unintended consequences: Instead of resulting in lower prices & better service, the opposite often happens: Higher prices & lower quality service. (Example: Painting all cabs same color destroying branding & ability to differentiate).

2) The Internet and information technology alleviates the need for top-down regulation & actually does a better job of serving consumers.

  1. Ease of entry/innovation in online world means that new entrants can come in to provide better options and solve problems previously thought to be unsolvable in the absence of regulation.
  2. Informational empowerment: The Internet and information technology solves old problem of lack of consumer access to information about products and services. This gives them monitoring tools to find more and better choices. (i.e., it lowers both search costs & transaction costs). (“To the extent that consumer protection regulation is based on the claim that consumers lack adequate information, the case for government intervention is weakened by the Internet’s powerful and unprecedented ability to provide timely and pointed consumer information.” – John C. Moorhouse)
  3. Feedback mechanisms (product & service rating / review systems) create powerful reputational incentives for all parties involved in transactions to perform better.
  4. Self-regulating markets: The combination of these three factors results in a powerful check on market power or abusive behavior. The result is reasonably well-functioning and self-regulating markets. Bad actors get weeded out.
  5. Law should evolve: When circumstances change dramatically, regulation should as well. If traditional rationales for regulation evaporate, or new technology or competition alleviates need for it, then the law should adapt.

3) Sharing economy has demonstrably improved consumer welfare. It provides:

  1. more choices / competition
  2. more service innovation / differentiation
  3. better prices
  4. higher quality services  (safety & cleanliness /convenience / peace of mind)
  5. Better options & conditions for workers

4) If we need to “level the (regulatory) playing field,” best way to do so is by “deregulating down” to put everyone on equal footing; not by “regulating up” to achieve parity.

  1. Regulatory asymmetry is real: Incumbents are right that they are at disadvantage relative to new sharing economy start-ups.
  2. Don’t punish new innovations for it: But solution is not to just roll the old regulatory regime onto the new innovators.
  3. Parity through liberalization: Instead, policymakers should “deregulate down” to achieve regulatory parity. Loosen old rules on incumbents as new entrants challenge status quo.
  4. “Permissionless innovation” should trump “precautionary principle” regulation: Preemptive, precautionary regulation does not improve consumer welfare. Competition and choice do better. Thus, our default position toward the sharing economy should be “innovation allowed” or permissionless innovation.
  5. Alternative remedies exist: Accidents will always happen, of course. But insurance, contracts, product liability, and other legal remedies exist when things go wrong. The difference is that ex post remedies don’t discourage innovation and competition like ex ante regulation does. By trying to head off every hypothetical worst-case scenario, preemptive regulations actually discourage many best-case scenarios from ever coming about.

5) Bottom line = Good intentions only get you so far in this world.

  1. Just because a law was put on the books for noble purposes, it does not mean it really accomplished those goals, or still does so today.
  2. Markets, competition, and ongoing innovation typically solve problems better than law when we give them a chance to do so.

[P.S. On 9/30, my Mercatus Center colleague Matt Mitchell posted this excellent follow-up essay building on my outline and improving it greatly.]

Sharing Economy Taxonomy-001

Why People Use Sharing Services Source: Jeremiah Owyang, Crowd Companies

Additional Reading

]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/09/26/the-debate-over-the-sharing-economy-talking-points-recommended-reading/feed/ 2 74792 Patrick Byrne on online retailers accepting Bitcoin https://techliberation.com/2014/04/22/byrne/ https://techliberation.com/2014/04/22/byrne/#comments Tue, 22 Apr 2014 10:00:25 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74423

Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock.com, discusses how Overstock.com became one of the first online retail stores to accept Bitcoin. Byrne provides insight into how Bitcoin lowers transaction costs, making it beneficial to both retailers and consumers, and how governments are attempting to limit access to Bitcoin. Byrne also discusses his project DeepCapture.com, which raises awareness for market manipulation and naked short selling, as well as his philanthropic work and support for education reform.

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]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/04/22/byrne/feed/ 1 74423 Ladar Levison on Lavabit https://techliberation.com/2014/02/04/levison/ https://techliberation.com/2014/02/04/levison/#respond Tue, 04 Feb 2014 11:00:18 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74240

Ladar Levison, founder of encrypted email service Lavabit, discusses recent government action that led him to shut down his firm. When it was suspected that NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden used Lavabit’s email service, the FBI issued a National Security Letter ordering Levison to hand over SSL keys, jeopardizing the privacy of Lavabit’s 410,000 users. Levison discusses his inspiration for founding Lavabit and why he chose to suspend the service; how Lavabit was different from email services like Gmail; developments in his case and how the Fourth Amendment has come into play; and his involvement with the recently-formed Dark Mail Technical Alliance.

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]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/02/04/levison/feed/ 0 74240 Anupam Chander on free speech and cyberlaw https://techliberation.com/2013/11/12/anupam-chander-on-free-speech-and-cyberlaw/ https://techliberation.com/2013/11/12/anupam-chander-on-free-speech-and-cyberlaw/#respond Tue, 12 Nov 2013 11:00:03 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=73785

Anupam Chander, Director of the California International Law Center and Martin Luther King, Jr. Hall Research Scholar at the UC Davis School of Law, discusses his recent paper with co-author Uyen P. Lee titled The Free Speech Foundations of Cyberlaw. Chander addresses how the first amendment promotes innovation on the Internet; how limitations to free speech vary between the US and Europe; the role of online intermediaries in promoting and protecting the first amendment; the Communications Decency Act; technology, piracy, and copyright protection; and the tension between privacy and free speech.

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]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/11/12/anupam-chander-on-free-speech-and-cyberlaw/feed/ 0 73785 Thomas Rid on cyber war https://techliberation.com/2013/09/03/thomas-rid/ https://techliberation.com/2013/09/03/thomas-rid/#respond Tue, 03 Sep 2013 22:59:03 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=73525

Thomas Rid, author of the new book Cyber War Will Not Take Place discusses whether so-called “cyber war” is a legitimate threat or not. Since the early 1990s, talk of cyber war has caused undue panic and worry and, despite major differences, the military treats the protection of cyberspace much in the same way as protection of land or sea. Rid also covers whether a cyber attack should be considered an act of war; whether it’s correct to classify a cyber attack as “war” considering no violence takes place; how sabotage, espionage and subversion come into play; and offers a positive way to view cyber attacks — have such attacks actually saved millions of lives?

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]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/09/03/thomas-rid/feed/ 0 73525 Jerry Ellig on the Universal Service Fund https://techliberation.com/2013/07/30/jerry-ellig/ https://techliberation.com/2013/07/30/jerry-ellig/#comments Tue, 30 Jul 2013 10:00:06 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=45321

Jerry Ellig, senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, discusses the the FCC’s lifeline assistance benefit funded through the Universal Service Fund (USF). The program, created in 1997, subsidizes phone services for low-income households. The USF is not funded through the federal budget, rather via a fee from monthly phone bills — reaching an all-time high of 17% of telecomm companies’ revenues last year. Ellig discusses the similarities between the USF fee and a tax, how the fee fluctuates, how subsidies to the telecomm industry have boomed in recent years, and how to curb the waste, fraud and abuse that comes as a result of the lifeline assistance benefit.

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]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/07/30/jerry-ellig/feed/ 3 45321 video: Mediaite’s “Privacy, Security and The Digital Age” Event https://techliberation.com/2013/07/24/video-mediaites-privacy-security-and-the-digital-age-event/ https://techliberation.com/2013/07/24/video-mediaites-privacy-security-and-the-digital-age-event/#comments Wed, 24 Jul 2013 18:02:06 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=45278

It was my pleasure last night to take part in an hour-long conversation on “Privacy, Security, and the Digital Age,” which was co-sponsored by Mediaite and the Koch Institute. The discussion focused on a wide range of issues related to government surveillance powers, Big Data, and the future of privacy. It opened with dueling remarks from former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton and Ben Wizner of the ACLU. You can view their respective remarks here.

I then sat on a panel that included Atlantic Media CTO Tom Cochrane and Michael R. Nelson, who is affiliated with with Bloomberg Government and Georgetown University. The entire session was expertly moderated by Andrew Kirell of Mediaite. He did an amazing job facilitating the discussion. Anyway, the videos for my panel are below, split into two parts.  My comments focused heavily on the importance of separating the government uses of data from private sector uses and explaining the need to create a high and tight firewall between State and Industry when it comes to information sharing. I also argued that we will never get a handle on government-related privacy concerns until we get control of the scope of government power. I used the example of the drug war and our government’s constantly-expanding militaristic activities both abroad and here at home. So long as government is expanding without any rational, constitutional constraint, we are going to have serious surveillance and privacy problems. (See this essay, “It’s About Power, not Privacy,” by my colleague Eli Dourado for more on that theme.)

]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/07/24/video-mediaites-privacy-security-and-the-digital-age-event/feed/ 1 45278 FCC Commish Ajit Pai on Protectionism & Cronyism in the Tech Sector https://techliberation.com/2013/07/11/fcc-commish-ajit-pai-on-protectionism-cronyism-in-the-tech-sector/ https://techliberation.com/2013/07/11/fcc-commish-ajit-pai-on-protectionism-cronyism-in-the-tech-sector/#comments Thu, 11 Jul 2013 13:20:05 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=45129

Ajit Pai FCCAjit Pai, a Republican commissioner at the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), had an outstanding op-ed in the L.A. Times yesterday about state and local efforts to regulate private taxi or ride-sharing services such as Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar. “Ever since Uber came to California,” Pai notes, “regulators have seemed determined to send Uber and companies like it on a one-way ride out of the Golden State.” Regulators have thrown numerous impediments in their way in California as well as in other states and localities (including here in Washington, D.C.). Pai continues on to discuss how, sadly, “tech start-ups in other industries face similar burdens”:

For example, Square has created a credit card reader for mobile devices. Small businesses love Square because it reduces costs and is convenient for customers. But some states want a piece of the action. Illinois, for example, has ordered Square to stop doing business in the Land of Lincoln until it gets a money transmitter license, even though the money flows through existing payment networks when Square processes credit cards. If Square had to get licenses in the 47 states with such laws, it could cost nearly half a million dollars, an extraordinary expense for a fledgling company.

He also notes that “Obstacles to entrepreneurship aren’t limited to the tech world”:

Across the country, restaurant associations have tried to kick food trucks off the streets. Auto dealers have used franchise laws to prevent car company Tesla from cutting out the middleman and selling directly to customers. Professional boards, too, often fiercely defend the status quo, impeding telemedicine by requiring state-by-state licensing or in-person consultations and even restricting who can sell tooth-whitening services.

What’s going on here? It’s an old and lamentable tale of incumbent protectionism and outright cronyism, Pai notes:

These are just the latest chapters in an old economic story. Incumbents have long promoted regulation in the name of protecting consumers when their actual goal is to block new entrants and stifle competition. As Milton Friedman observed, “The pressure on the legislature to license an occupation rarely comes from the members of the public … the pressure invariably comes from members of the occupation itself.”

Indeed, this is exactly the sort of cronyist nightmare that Brent Skorup and I documented in our new Mercatus Center report, “A History of Cronyism and Capture in the Information Technology Sector.” Our 73-page working paper outlines the evolution of government-granted privileges in America’s information and communications technology marketplace and in the media-producing sectors. Sadly, there are all too many examples of special interests seeking to commandeer the levers of government power to distort market outcomes and head off disruptive forms of innovation or new competition.

“Consumer protection is important,” Pai notes, “and rules to ensure safety and to deter fraud are necessary. But many regulations aren’t about safeguarding consumers; they’re about entrenching incumbents (at consumers’ expense), and they’re typically created by the very agencies that are supposed to oversee those incumbents.” he correctly observes.

The costs of cronyism can be significant. In our paper, Skorup and I note that when companies seek and receive favors from government, it can dull entrepreneurialism and competition in this highly innovative sector since time and resources spent on influencing politicians and capturing regulators cannot be spent competing and innovating in the marketplace. Every dollar spent trying to influence government is a dollar that could have been better spent trying to develop the next iPhone or other innovative gadget or service. Thus, cronyism can negatively impact consumer welfare by denying consumers more and better products and services. Additionally, consumers might end up paying higher prices or higher taxes due to government privileges for industry.

Worse yet, cronyism also raises the specter of greater government control of the Internet and of the digital economy. When policymakers dispense favors, they usually expect something in return. Just ask the agriculture and transportation sectors how their experience with favor-seeking has worked out. Yes, they have often received the special favors and benefits they sought, but along with the goodies came a litany of demands from lawmakers and regulators about how to run their businesses.

At the end of the day, it all goes back to the consumer and how they get screwed in this process. As Pai eloquently puts it:

Heavy-handed regulations hurt the very consumers they’re supposed to help. Consumers fare best when the barriers to business entry are low, which helps ensure that the market — any market — becomes competitive and stays that way. …  Governments at all levels should guard against this tendency by prioritizing innovation and removing unnecessary regulations that burden risk-taking entrepreneurs.

Amen, brother! If only all government officials thought this way. I hope some of them at least take the time to read Commissioner Pai’s excellent essay.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/07/11/fcc-commish-ajit-pai-on-protectionism-cronyism-in-the-tech-sector/feed/ 2 45129 Adam Thierer on cronyism https://techliberation.com/2013/07/09/adam-thierer-on-cronyism/ https://techliberation.com/2013/07/09/adam-thierer-on-cronyism/#comments Tue, 09 Jul 2013 10:00:37 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=45126

Adam Thierer, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center discusses his recent working paper with coauthor Brent Skorup, A History of Cronyism and Capture in the Information Technology Sector. Thierer takes a look at how cronyism has manifested itself in technology and media markets — whether it be in the form of regulatory favoritism or tax privileges. Which tech companies are the worst offenders? What are the consequences for consumers? And, how does cronyism affect entrepreneurship over the long term?

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]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/07/09/adam-thierer-on-cronyism/feed/ 5 45126 DC’s Social Media Surveillance: Privacy vs. Customer Service Considerations https://techliberation.com/2012/11/29/dcs-social-media-surveillance-privacy-vs-customer-service-considerations/ https://techliberation.com/2012/11/29/dcs-social-media-surveillance-privacy-vs-customer-service-considerations/#respond Thu, 29 Nov 2012 19:51:19 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=42937

As I noted in an addendum to my previous post, less than an hour after I posted an essay about how the District of Columbia’s subsidy deal with LivingSocial was potentially set to unravel, I received a call from two representatives of the D.C. Mayor’s office asking me to clarify a few aspects of the deal. The tone and substance of the call was courteous and profession from the start and I told them I would be happy to post a quick update to my essay letting readers know of the points that they wanted stressed.

After I did so, however, I kept thinking how strange it was that I received such a quick response from the Mayor’s office about my little post. After all, I can’t imagine that the Technology Liberation Front is on the top of their morning reading list! I just figured that someone in the Mayor’s office probably had a Google Alert set up that caught it.  But then, as luck would have it, I was reading through the Wall Street Journal at lunch and came across a story entitled, “In D.C., Social-Media Surveillance Pays Off” by Sarah Portlock. She reports that:

The local government in the nation’s capital is paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to a startup to gather comments on Twitter, Facebook and other online message boards as well as the government’s own website. The data help form a letter grade for the bureaucracies that handle drivers licenses, building permits and the like. These social-media analytics services are already common for businesses such as restaurants and hotel chains that want to go beyond the comment cards most customers ignore. The D.C. experiment suggests governments are beginning to mirror the private sector in seeking real-time unvarnished feedback.

The D.C. government apparently has a 2-year $670,000 contract with newBrandAnalytics, Inc. to gather social media feedback and insights about the District.  So, I figure that’s how the folks in the D.C. Mayor’s office stumbled upon my little rant. I had posted a link to my essay on both Twitter and Google+ and they probably got an immediate report back about it.

In any event, that got me wondering about how people are going to respond to this sort of “surveillance” of social media sites and activities by governments.

I can imagine that some people will feel it’s “creepy” and suggest it violates some privacy norms. But the sort of “surveillance” happening here isn’t the typical “law-and-order” stuff. What we’re talking here about is really just the same sort of customer service efforts that many private sector companies undertake regularly. Like those private companies, the District is interested in getting feedback about how it’s doing its job. The Journal article quotes Nicholas Majett, head of the District’s Department of Consumer and Regulatory Affairs, saying: “Knowing that every day you’re going to get a report about how you’re doing, that actually puts you on your toes and makes sure you’re doing the best possible job.”

In that sense, I applaud the District’s effort to gather impressions and insights from social media sites and use them to improve their public service record. (Of course, I’m of the mind that the District government is doing far more than it needs to and that many of its licensing and regulatory processes, for example, should be completely abolished or privatized. I’m also not sure that the system is worth $670,000 of taxpayer money.)

About the only way I could imagine any of this raising privacy concerns is if the District was gathering these social media insights, matching them up with other databases they have access to, and then using that information to somehow intimidate citizens or deny them some sort of service. It’s always easy to conjure up privacy boogeyman stories like that, but until there is any evidence that social media insights are being used in some nefarious way, I’m not too worried about what the District is doing here.

Going forward, however, it will certainly be interesting to see what happens when government “customer service” efforts such as these grow more sophisticated and come into conflict with certain privacy expectations. While I’m not of the mind that you really have much of a reasonable expectation of privacy on Facebook, Google+ or Twitter, I can imagine that many people are going to be freaked out if they start getting regular emails, tweets, texts, or even phone calls from government officials responding to complaints that were written just moments prior on their favorite social media sites.

Of course, these efforts are also worth monitoring to see if they actually do anything to help improve government service / responsiveness. If these efforts can make my DMV experience even moderately more tolerable, I would probably consider them a success!

]]> https://techliberation.com/2012/11/29/dcs-social-media-surveillance-privacy-vs-customer-service-considerations/feed/ 0 42937 Cronyism: History, Costs, Case Studies and Solutions https://techliberation.com/2012/11/18/cronyism-history-costs-case-studies-and-solutions/ https://techliberation.com/2012/11/18/cronyism-history-costs-case-studies-and-solutions/#comments Sun, 18 Nov 2012 14:22:29 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=42807

Here’s a presentation I’ve been using lately for various audiences about “Cronyism: History, Costs, Case Studies and Solutions.” In the talk, I offer a definition of cronyism, explain its origins, discuss how various academics have traditionally thought about it, outline a variety of case studies, and then propose a range of solutions. Readers of this blog might be interested because I briefly mention the rise of cronyism in the high-tech sector. Brent Skorup and I have a huge paper in the works on that topic, which should be out early next year.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2012/11/18/cronyism-history-costs-case-studies-and-solutions/feed/ 1 42807 Copyright, Privacy, Property Rights & Information Control: Common Themes, Common Challenges https://techliberation.com/2012/04/10/copyright-privacy-property-rights-information-control/ https://techliberation.com/2012/04/10/copyright-privacy-property-rights-information-control/#comments Tue, 10 Apr 2012 14:47:23 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=40726

Andrew Orlowski of The Register (U.K.) recently posted a very interesting essay making the case for treating online copyright and privacy as essentially the same problem in need of the same solution: increased property rights. In his essay (“‘Don’t break the internet’: How an idiot’s slogan stole your privacy“), he argues that, “The absence of permissions on our personal data and the absence of permissions on digital copyright objects are two sides of the same coin. Economically and legally they’re an absence of property rights – and an insistence on preserving the internet as a childlike, utopian world, where nobody owns anything, or ever turns a request down. But as we’ve seen, you can build things like libraries with permissions too – and create new markets.” He argues that “no matter what law you pass, it won’t work unless there’s ownership attached to data, and you, as the individual, are the ultimate owner. From the basis of ownership, we can then agree what kind of rights are associated with the data – eg, the right to exclude people from it, the right to sell it or exchange it – and then build a permission-based world on top of that.”

And so, he concludes, we should set aside concerns about Internet regulation and information control and get down to the business of engineering solutions that would help us property-tize both intangible creations and intangible facts about ourselves to better shield our intellectual creations and our privacy in the information age. He builds on the thoughts of Mark Bide, a tech consultant:

For Bide, privacy and content markets are just a technical challenges that need to be addressed intelligently.”You can take two views,” he told me. “One is that every piece of information flowing around a network is a good thing, and we should know everything about everybody, and have no constraints on access to it all.” People who believe this, he added, tend to be inflexible – there is no half-way house. “The alternative view is that we can take the technology to make privacy and intellectual property work on the network. The function of copyright is to allow creators and people who invest in creation to define how it can be used. That’s the purpose of it. “So which way do we want to do it?” he asks. “Do we want to throw up our hands and do nothing? The workings of a civilised society need both privacy and creator’s rights.”  But this a new way of thinking about things: it will be met with cognitive dissonance. Copyright activists who fight property rights on the internet and have never seen a copyright law they like, generally do like their privacy. They want to preserve it, and will support laws that do. But to succeed, they’ll need to argue for stronger property rights. They have yet to realise that their opponents in the copyright wars have been arguing for those too, for years. Both sides of the copyright “fight” actually need the same thing. This is odd, I said to Bide. How can he account for this irony? “Ah,” says Bide. “Privacy and copyright are two things nobody cares about unless it’s their own privacy, and their own copyright.”

These are important insights that get at a fundamental truth that all too many people ignore today: At root, most information control efforts are related and solutions for one problem can often be used to address others. But there’s another insight that Orlowski ignores: Whether we are discussing copyright, privacy, online speech and child safety, or cybersecurity, all these efforts to control the free flow of digitized bits over decentralized global networks will be increasingly complex, costly, and riddled with myriad unintended consequences. Importantly, that is true whether you seek to control information flows through top-down administrative regulation or by assigning and enforcing property rights in intellectual creations or private information.

Let me elaborate a bit (and I apologize for the rambling mess of rant that follows).

Parallels in Debates over Copyright & Privacy Protection

In several essays here over the past few years I have attempted to draw parallels between the battles over protecting digital copyright and online privacy, as well as battle over online safety/speech and cybersecurity. Here are a few of those essays in case you’re interested in seeing the evolution of my thinking about this:

In those essays I have argued that a combination of selective morality and wishful thinking are at work in the information policy world these days. In essence, people hate Internet regulation… until they love it! Here’s how I summarized that fact during the debate over SOPA:

… conservatives rush out and breathlessly denounce each and every effort to impose Net neutrality regulation because of the danger of empowering an already over-zealous bunch of bumbling bureaucrats at the FCC. (And I agree with them.) Yet, with their next breath many conservatives praise SOPA even though it also empowers government to muck with the inner workings of the Internet. Some of those conservatives are also turning a blind eye to the growing appetite of the defense/security community to meddle with the Net’s architecture in the name of avoiding any number of non-catastrophes. Meanwhile, the liberals decry SOPA and want it stopped at all costs. There’s never been a copyright protection measure they liked, of course, but each time one pops up we hear them claim that our analog era Congress is not well-positioned to be designing industrial policy schemes for the Internet. (And I generally agree with them.) But most liberals do a complete 180 whenever online privacy or Net neutrality regulations are the subject of congressional inquiry. Suddenly, the cyber-oafs in Congress are considered veritable technocratic philosopher kings who we should trust to guard our cyber-freedoms to lead us to the digital promised land.

Again, it’s both selective morality and wishful thinking. It’s selective morality in that some folks think certain values are sacrosanct and deserving of a “by-any-means-necessary” enforcement attitude, yet they are often just as likely to denounce similar information control efforts when it comes to issues or values they don’t give a damn about.  And it is wishful thinking in that you can’t run around insisting that “information wants to be free” in some contexts but then express outrage when something that you want to bottle up turns out to “just want to be free” as well!

But the important takeaway here is that, consistent with what Orlowski argues, I believe that online copyright and privacy are essentially the same problem: It’s an information control problem.

Potential Costs of Control

Once you start thinking about Internet policy debates as a single issue — namely, information control — you can begin to investigate the potential costs of control in a somewhat more objective fashion. Of course, challenging issues remain:

  1. Which method of control should we choose? On one hand, there are many varieties of administrative regulation, technical infrastructure controls, and device mandates. On the other hand, there are property rights and liability / tort schemes. And there are many hybrid enforcement models, such as increasingly popular “co-regulation” models, government standard-setting, and “nudging” of system defaults. Each method will entail different costs and trade-offs.
  2. What metric(s) should we use when attempting to determine whether the benefits of control exceed the costs? Ask any advocate of information control about whether the costs might exceed the benefits of regulation for their pet issue and they will typically suggest that either (a) there are no costs or that (b) the benefits dwarf any costs that may exist. But all too often the benefits they identify are extremely subjective and amorphous in character (“privacy,” “safety,” and “security” are hard to quantify, after all) while the costs are very real and increasingly substantial.

In my view, these practical questions are increasingly the most interesting issues to explore in the field of cyberlaw and digital economics. We can debate the normative or ethical considerations until we’re all blue in the face and ready to rip each other’s heads off, but I am less and less interested in such squabbles. Instead, I keep coming back to the question of how we’ll go about controlling info flows and how much effort and resources it makes sense to expend in pursuit of each of the values identified above. Some of the specific considerations I find myself asking in every paper I write these days include:

(A) Will the proposed form of information control tie us up in the courts forever, lead to increasingly onerous and unworkable liability norms, and end up yielding outrageous litigation costs?

(B) Will the proposed form of information control require a significant increase in regulatory bureaucracy? How many levels of government will need to be involved in the proposed enforcement scheme? How many new offices and officials will need to be empowered in the hope of achieving some measure of control?

(C) What are the alternatives to the proposed form of information control? Are there less costly or less restrictive means of addressing the concern in question? For example, education and empowerment effort are often an effective way to address many online safety and digital privacy concerns. Can we use those methods in conjunction with social norms, public pressure, self-regulation, informal contracting, and other methods to address these and other concerns?

For me, the costs associated with the A & B are increasing so rapidly that I almost always default to C as the better approach. Importantly, although A & B will be less onerous or costly when the solution is of the increased property-ization variety than of the administrative regulation variety, that does not mean property rights-based solutions for information are costless. Indeed, I increasingly find myself concluding that C solutions are more cost-effective even compared to increased property rights.

Practical Advice Once You Accept the Increasing Costs & Complications of Control

At this point, readers may be thinking: “Wait a minute, this dude is just some kooky libertarian who doesn’t want any form of information control, so he’s just trying to rationalize anarchy here.” No, I’m not. I certainly favor less control across the board than most people, but I also understand that there are times, at the margin, when some forms of “control” are necessary. But my views on the wisdom of control are heavily influenced by the costs of control. The costs of control — broadly defined — are a key factor in every cost-benefit analysis I do related to the wisdom of Net regulation and information control methods — even when one of those methods is increased “property-ization.” And because I have come to believe that those costs are going up and that most information control efforts will not work well in practice, I have boiled down my advice on this front to two simple principles:

  1. Choose your info control battles wisely. Figure out where the most serious harms or threats lie and then target the info control solution accordingly and forget about the rest. For example, in child safety debates, that would mean going after child porn rings but leaving run-of-the-mill adult porn alone entirely. In copyright, it would mean nailing the largest commercial mass piracy sites but accepting a certain amount of casual sharing. In the field of personal info, it means singling out health and financial information and data for special protections and likely giving up on most other forms of info control. And so on. In essence, these are where the greatest potential harms lie that most people would consider intolerable. As you move further away from such issues, the case for control becomes harder and harder and the costs will almost certainly exceed the benefits.
  2. Have a good backup plan in mind when those info control plans fail anyway. That backup plan should generally be based on education, empowerment, coping strategies, and resiliency. Again, these are the “C” solutions mentioned above. [I developed this model more robustly in the second half of this recent paper.] This approach won’t be perfect but it will likely be what you’ll end up relying on anyway, so you better start thinking about plowing more resources into this alternative approach even while you’re trying to devise info control mechanisms.

Let me just say a brief word to my market-oriented friends who are dismayed by my inclusion of property rights in the mix of “information control” efforts. I’m a big believer in the importance of property rights in many contexts, but context does matter. More specifically, physicality matters. It is easy to create property rights in tangible goods and almost always right to do so. Property rights in intangible ideas and creations raise special issues, however. Because ideas are non-rivalrous and have public good qualities, it makes property-ization more complicated and less effective. Property rights in facts can also come into conflict with other values and more well-established rights, especially freedom of speech and expression.

On the privacy front, Eugene Volokh made this point in his famous 2000 law review article, “Freedom of Speech, Information Privacy, and the Troubling Implications of a Right to Stop People from Speaking About You,” when he noted that, “The difficulty[with] the right to information privacy — the right to control other people’s communication of personally identifiable information about you — is a right to have the government stop people from speaking about you. And the First Amendment (which is already our basic code of “fair information practices”) generally bars the government from “control[ling the communication] of information,” either by direct regulation or through the authorization of private lawsuits.” That doesn’t mean free speech values should always trump privacy values, but denying this tension is just plain silly. If you want to propertytize all personal information, then you better be prepared to explain how that plays out in practice. How far are you prepared to go to ban the dissemination of facts? Would you place prior restraint on the press to accomplish it? Would you ban a historian from writing a biographies that reveal intimate facts about the subject? Would you shut down all the online sites and services that rely on a certain amount of personal information to fuel their free offerings?

Likewise, copyright law was far more effective in the analog age when we were still pressing music on vinyl and plastic. As soon as digitization become widespread, it was pretty much game over for traditional copyright law and now we are off and running with all sorts of convoluted and increasingly costly regulatory regimes. It’s not that I don’t want these some of these schemes to work — I’ve been a long-time copyright defender — but, again, the practicality of control simply must be considered here. I am not will to “pay any price, bear any burden” in defense of protecting intellectual property rights even as I remain outraged by the staggering amount of free-riding at work every single second of the day on the Internet. So, adopting the framework I outlined about, we might try targeted solutions to go after the biggest of those freeloaders — commercial mass piracy hubs — but we should generally avoid the sort of ham-handed technical control methods we saw in SOPA and other fights, like the broadcast flag battle among others. But, generally speaking, property rights just aren’t going to work as well in this space going forward. I’ve come to believe that the best hope lies in massive consolidation of content and conduit. In other words, pipe and device owners need to buy out all the content-creating industries and just embed a small fee in their monthly services to cross-subsidize content. This is essentially a private collective licensing solution and it is not unprecedented. Nor is it perfect. It will be very leaky. Plenty of piracy will still take place. But it will probably offer creators a better chance of finding a sustainable revenue stream than the current system does. The old copyright system that served them and us so well is dying and they had better start thinking of alternatives like this. Of course, antitrust law may never allow it, so I could be wasting my breath here. (Just look at all the grief that antitrust officials both here and abroad are giving Apple and eBook sellers for working together even though that it probably the best scheme devised in recent memory to sustain publishing in an age of mass piracy. Policymakers should be encouraging more of that sort of thing, not punishing it.)

An Uncertain Future

So, to wrap up… I can imagine a future in which both heavy-handed, top-down info control efforts and property / liability solutions are failing almost universally because of the ubiquitous, instantaneous, quicksilver-like flow of information across decentralized digital networks. Some utopians will argue that such a world will be better in every way than the one we live in today. I do not share such hyper-optimism. While I believe that, on balance, the free flow if information generally benefits society, I also understand how it creates enormous angst and intractable challenges for many. It’s a world in which copyright is a hollow shell of its former self that offers creators very little protection for their expressive works. And it’s a world in which personal privacy is harder to safeguard with each passing day because no matter how hard we try to property-tize facts about ourselves, that enforcement model simply breaks down at some point or becomes socially and economically intolerable. As with copyright, efforts to property-tize personal information will lose the battle against data sharing. As computer scientist Ben Adida argued in his essay, “(Your) Information Wants to be Free,” “unfortunately, information replication doesn’t discriminate: your personal data, credit cards and medical problems alike, also want to be free. Keeping it secret is really, really hard.”

Indeed, and it is growing harder by the day. Contrary to what Orlowski suggests, therefore, this isn’t a simple engineering problem. I wish it were as easy as he suggests to build “permissions-based markets” because they could have real benefits for individuals and society. But it is most certainly not that simple. It is far more costly and complicated than ever to devise workable information control schemes on one hand and “permissions-based” property rights schemes on the other. In some cases, I might still be willing to try the latter, but unlike Orlowski, I just don’t place much faith in the success of the endeavor.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2012/04/10/copyright-privacy-property-rights-information-control/feed/ 616 40726 Event: “The Crisis in Journalism – What Should the Government Do?” https://techliberation.com/2010/02/09/event-the-crisis-in-journalism-what-should-the-government-do/ https://techliberation.com/2010/02/09/event-the-crisis-in-journalism-what-should-the-government-do/#comments Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:32:40 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=25665

I was just reading this interesting Broadcasting & Cable interview with Steven Waldman, senior advisor to FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski, who is heading up the FCC’s new effort on “The Future of Media and the Information Needs of Communities in a Digital Age.” The FCC’s Future of Media website says that “The goal of this project: to help ensure that all Americans have access to vibrant, diverse sources of news and information that will enable them to enrich their families, communities and democracy.” In the interview with B&C, Waldman promises that “we are not in the business of providing bailouts or encouraging bailouts to particular companies or industries,”and that “we can absolutely, definitively say that we have no plans to take over the media, and we have no plans to reinstitute the fairness doctrine while I am at it.” I’m certainly glad to hear that. As I’ve pointed out here many times before (1, 2, 3, 4), the prospect of greater government involvement in the news business raises profoundly troubling implications for an independent press and the First Amendment.

Anyway, I’ll be debating these issues with Mr. Waldman and others next week at this Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy event on, “The Crisis in Journalism: What Should the Government Do?”  It will be held on Wednesday, February 17, 2010 at 9:30am at the Newseum (Knight Conference Center) located at 555 Pennsylvania Ave here in Washington, DC.  Breakfast will be served. (You can RSVP please by emailing: cbpp@msb.edustrong>cbpp@msb.edu</strong)  Here’s the event description:

This round table discussion will bring together academics, government officials and industry leaders to consider the future of the journalism industry. Specifically, what does a future economic model for the journalism industry look like? What is the role of new media in modern journalism? How can news papers integrate web-based news into their business models? How can government entities, particularly the Federal Trade Commission and the Federal Communications Commission, help to form a sustainable 21st century model for journalism in the United States.

Mark MacCarthy of Georgetown Univ. will moderate the panel, which includes me, Steve Waldman, Andy Schwartzman of the Media Access Project, and Susan DeSanti, Director of Policy Planning at the Federal Trade Commission.  (The FTC has also been investigating whether journalism will survive the Internet age and what government should do about it.)

]]> https://techliberation.com/2010/02/09/event-the-crisis-in-journalism-what-should-the-government-do/feed/ 3 25665 Philly Muni Wi-Fi Fiasco Continues; Taxpayers to Pick Up Tab https://techliberation.com/2009/12/17/philly-muni-wi-fi-fiasco-continues-taxpayers-to-pick-up-tab/ https://techliberation.com/2009/12/17/philly-muni-wi-fi-fiasco-continues-taxpayers-to-pick-up-tab/#comments Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:30:48 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=24415

As we’ve noted here before in our ongoing series on “Problems in Public Utility Paradise,” municipal wi-fi experiments and local government fiber investments don’t have a very impressive track record. The Philadelphia experiment, which I have discussed here before many times, has been particularly instructive.  As Dan P. Lee documented in this spectacular Philadelphia magazine article last year, the city’s subsidized wi-fi system, Wireless Philadelphia, was a political and technical fiasco of the highest order right from the start. It unraveled fairly quickly after its 2005 launch and now, according to The Philadelphia Business Journal:

The city of Philadelphia said Wednesday it intends to purchase, for $2 million, the wireless network constructed by EarthLink Inc. to turn the entire city into a Wifi hotspot. The city said it intends to exercise an option in an agreement signed in August to buy the network from Network Acquisition Co. LLC, which took the network over from Atlanta-based EarthLink in June 2008. The city said the purchase will be the first in a series of steps to create a wireless network it will use to enhance public safety, improve government efficiency and provide Internet access in targeted public places. The city said creating that network will require it to spend nearly $17 million over its 2011 through 2015 fiscal years. The money would go to building out both the core fiber network it already owns and the wireless mesh network it intends to purchase from Network Acquisition Co…

In other words, taxpayers are stuck picking up the tab for this failed experiment and now have to hope that the city can somehow manage it into profitability. Well, good luck with that.  Even Karl Bode of Broadband Reports, someone who usually has nothing but nice things to say about Big Government high-tech projects and regulation, is forced to admit that the script for muni wi-fi paradise didn’t quite play out as expected:

Network Acquisition Corporation purchased the network from Earthlink back in 2008, when Earthlink bailed (and we really mean bailed) on their muni-fi ambitions. The buyers briefly tinkered with free access and claimed they’d expand the network, but ultimately wound up being only a stepping stone between Earthlink and Philadelphia control. Philadelphia’s use of Wi-Fi as a municipal efficiency and communications tool is a growing trend among cities, many of which found that broad, free Wi-Fi for all simply wasn’t sustainable.

Do you mean to say that there is no such thing as a free lunch?  I am shocked, shocked!  Well, actually, I’m not. Because back in 2005, I wrote a white paper entitled “Risky Business: Philadelphia’s Plan for Providing Wi-Fi Service,” and it began with the following question: “Should taxpayers finance government entry into an increasingly competitive, but technologically volatile, business market?”  In the report, I highlighted the significant risks involved here in light of how rapidly broadband technology and the marketplace was evolving. Moreover, I pointed to the dismal track record of previous municipal experiments in this field, which almost without exception ended in failure. I went on to argue:

Keeping these facts in mind, it hardly makes sense for municipal governments to assume the significant risks involved in becoming a player in the broadband marketplace. Even an investment in wi-fi along the lines of what Philadelphia is proposing, is a risky roll of the dice. [… ]  the nagging “problem” of technological change is especially acute for municipal entities operating in a dynamic marketplace like broadband. Their unwillingness or inability to adapt to technological change could leave their communities with rapidly outmoded networks, and leave taxpayers footing the bill.

I got a stunning amount of hate mail and cranky calls from people after I released this paper.  Everyone accused me of being a sock puppet for incumbent broadband providers or just not understanding the importance of the endeavor.  But as I told everyone at the time, I wasn’t out to block Philadelphia from conducting this experiment, I just didn’t think it had any chance of being successful.  And, again, I tried to point out what a shame it would be if taxpayers were somehow stuck picking up the tab.

And now that is what has happened.  Folks, I am not above saying it… I told you so!   Anybody want to place bets on how much this will cost Philly taxpayers before all is said and done?

At the rate they are going, it would be cheaper for the city to just give everyone a voucher to go buy service from a private broadband provider. It would make a lot more sense, and spur more real competition and investment.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2009/12/17/philly-muni-wi-fi-fiasco-continues-taxpayers-to-pick-up-tab/feed/ 2 24415 Net Neutrality, Slippery Slopes & High-Tech Mutually Assured Destruction https://techliberation.com/2009/10/23/net-neutrality-slippery-slopes-high-tech-mutually-assured-destruction/ https://techliberation.com/2009/10/23/net-neutrality-slippery-slopes-high-tech-mutually-assured-destruction/#comments Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:45:17 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=22825

by Berin Szoka & Adam Thierer, Progress Snapshot 5.11 (PDF)

Ten years ago, Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman lamented the “Business Community’s Suicidal Impulse:” the persistent propensity to persecute one’s competitors through regulation or the threat thereof. Friedman asked: “Is it really in the self-interest of Silicon Valley to set the government on Microsoft?” After yesterday’s FCC vote’s to open a formal “Net Neutrality” rule-making, we must ask whether the high-tech industry—or consumers—will benefit from inviting government regulation of the Internet under the mantra of “neutrality.”

The hatred directed at Microsoft in the 1990s has more recently been focused on the industry that has brought broadband to Americans’ homes (Internet Service Providers) and the company that has done more than any other to make the web useful (Google). Both have been attacked for exercising supposed “gatekeeper” control over the Internet in one fashion or another. They are now turning their guns on each other—the first strikes in what threatens to become an all-out, thermonuclear war in the tech industry over increasingly broad neutrality mandates. Unless we find a way to achieve “Digital Détente,” the consequences of this increasing regulatory brinkmanship will be “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) for industry and consumers.

New Fronts in the Neutrality Wars

The FCC’s proposed rules would apply to all broadband providers, including wireless, but not to Google or many other players operating in other layers of the Net who favor such broadband-specific rules. With this rulemaking looming, AT&T came after Google with letters to the FCC in late September and then another last week accusing the company of violating neutrality principles in their business practices and arguing that any neutrality rules that apply to ISPs should apply equally to Google’s panoply of popular services. In particular, AT&T accused Google of “search engine bias,” suggesting that only government-enforced neutrality mandates could protect consumers from Google’s supposed “monopolist” control.

The promise made yesterday by the FCC—to only apply neutrality principles to the infrastructure layer of the Net—is hollow and will ultimately prove unenforceable. The reality is that regulation always spreads. The march of regulation can sometimes be glacial, but it is, sadly, almost inevitable: Regulatory regimes grow but almost never contract. Indeed, in some ways, the prediction we made just three weeks ago is already coming true: The basic premise of neutrality regulation is already being proposed for other layers of the Internet—and not just by AT&T in retaliation. One need not agree with all of AT&T’s accusations to recognize that, whatever the FCC might say today, any large online intermediary with a popular platform potentially faces the threat of “network neutrality” mandates—because every platform is essentially a “network,” too. We’re not just talking about “search neutrality” (Google as well as Microsoft) but also about “device neutrality” (mobile handsets), “app neutrality” (Apple’s iTunes store, Facebook’s developers and Google’s Android mobile OS) and so on for social networking, email, instant messaging, online advertising, etc.

An open letter sent to FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski this week by 28 founders and CEOs of leading application providers—including Amazon, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Craigslist, Sony and Twitter—speaks generally about the need for the FCC to enforce a “guarantee of neutral, nondiscriminatory access by users.” While many of these signatories may have in mind ISPs as the network “gatekeepers” that need to be reined in by the FCC, the more successful among them are likely to find this letter used against them in the future—perhaps even by co-signatories—to advance a broad conception of what the government must do to ensure “openness” and “access” for platforms at all layers of the Internet.

Dumb Networks, Dumb Devices

The intellectual foundations for this regulatory creep have already been laid by groups like Free Press and Public Knowledge and law professors like Columbia’s Tim Wu, Harvard’s Jonathan Zittrain and Seton Hall’s Frank Pasquale. As originally conceived by Tim Wu in 2003, “network neutrality” is not unique to broadband networks: “the basic economic problem found in the network neutrality debate (a form of ‘platform exclusion’ or ‘vertical foreclosure’) can be found in many other markets.” Indeed, Wu’s popular Net Neutrality FAQ declares:

The promotion of network neutrality is no different than the challenge of promoting fair evolutionary competition in any privately owned environment, whether a telephone network, operating system, or even a retail store. Government regulation in such contexts invariably tries to help ensure that the short-term interests of the owner do not prevent the best products or applications becoming available to end-users.

Zittrain picked up where Wu left off in The Future of the Internet and How to Stop It—attacking, as the enemies of innovation, not ISPs but the supposedly “closed” platforms of Apple, TiVo and Microsoft’s Xbox. Zittrain warns that:

If there is a present worldwide threat to neutrality in the movement of bits, it comes not from restrictions on traditional Internet access that can be evaded using generative PCs, but from enhancements to traditional and emerging appliancized services that are not open to third-party tinkering.

Zittrain’s general solution is “API [Applications Programming Interface] neutrality:” If you create a platform (whether hardware or software) and begin allowing third-party contributions (“generativity”), you will lose all control over devices or applications that can run on that platform.

Those who offer open APIs on the Net in an attempt to harness the generative cycle ought to remain application-neutral after their efforts have succeeded, so all those who built on top of their interface can continue to do so on equal terms…. [N]etwork neutrality ought to be applied to the new platforms of Web services that, in turn, depend on Internet connectivity to function.

Clearly, if Zittrain and his allies have their way, the sort of neutrality mandates envisioned by the FCC or some Congressmen for ISPs will eventually cover companies such as Apple, Google, Facebook, Myspace, Twitter and Amazon—all singled out by Zittrain in a New York Times op-ed in July:

If the market settles into a handful of gated cloud communities whose proprietors control the availability of new code, the time may come to ensure that their platforms do not discriminate. Such a demand could take many forms, from an outright regulatory requirement to a more subtle set of incentives — tax breaks or liability relief — that nudge companies to maintain the kind of openness that earlier allowed them a level playing field on which they could lure users from competing, mighty incumbents.

Frank Pasquale agrees on the need to restrain all “the dominant players at all layers of online life,” but focuses on his demand for a Federal Search Commission to control supposedly “biased” search results. While the FCC wrings its hands over “managed services” offered by ISPs, search engines are increasingly offering their own value-added services by “blending” algorithmically-derived results with special features like maps, videos, books or music depending on what the search term suggests the user is interested in. “Artificially” ensuring that these features appear on the first page of search results is clearly non-neutral, and necessarily involves search engines making ”managed” decisions as to whose features to include. Yet such features also clearly benefit users—dramatically improving the usefulness of search engines and helping to sustain struggling business models like music retailing.

But one need not resort to the works of “ivory tower” academics to see the slippery slope we’re already tumbling down with the infinitely elastic principle of “neutrality.” The prospect of the FCC gradually transforming into a “Federal Information Commission” becomes more apparent when one reads the Wireless Innovation and Investment Notice of Inquiry recently released by the FCC:

As other approaches, such as cloud computing, evolve, will established standards or de facto standards become more important to the applications development process? For example, can a dominant cloud computing position raise the same competitive issues that are now being discussed in the context of network neutrality? Will it be necessary to modify the existing balance between regulatory and market forces to promote further innovation in the development and deployment of new applications and services?

One can imagine how some might use such language to accuse Google of being in “a dominant cloud computing position” such that “the context of network neutrality” will be applied to cloud service (like Google Voice) to “modify the existing balance between regulatory and market forces” through regulation. Indeed, that’s precisely what AT&T has suggested in recent letters (September 25 th and October 14 th) to the FCC.

AT&T’s partner Apple has already been the subject of such attacks for its decision to block the Google Voice app earlier this summer. The incident marked the beginning of open warfare between Google and AT&T/Apple. The FCC quickly jumped into the mix, first questioning how Apple manages its iTunes apps store for the iPhone, then questioning how Google runs its free Voice application. What legal authority the FCC has over either service is far from clear, but Apple seems to have gotten the message: It recently approved the Spotify music streaming app for the iPhone, which could be a serious competitive threat to the iTunes music store. This small incident highlights how easily regulators can impose their will through informal mechanisms like open-ended investigations even without clear authority to issue rules or bring enforcement actions. Yet none dare call it what it is: regulatory blackmail.

The Inevitability of Regulatory Capture

No doubt, other industry players will cheer on such regulatory harassment of the titans of tech—and maybe even demand more of it. Regulatory creep is driven by more than the self-interests of every bureaucracy to expand its own mission, budget and staff. As the Electronic Frontier Foundation has noted, “Experience shows that the FCC is particularly vulnerable to regulatory capture.” While lobbyists play an important role in defending business from government, all too many businesses naively look at government as a beast that can be tamed, trained, and turned to one’s own advantage, and often try to use the expanding regulatory apparatus to their own advantage or simply throw their competitors under the bus to save themselves. The result is a Hobbesian regulatory “war of all against all” within industry.

As Professor Alfred E. Kahn explained in his 2-volume opus, The Economics of Regulation, all regulation—however high-minded—is inevitably captured by special interests because:

When a commission is responsible for the performance of an industry, it is under never completely escapable pressure to protect the health of the companies it regulates, to assure a desirable performance by relying on those monopolistic chosen instruments and its own controls rather than on the unplanned and unplannable forces of competition. […] Responsible for the continued provision and improvement of service, [the regulatory commission] comes increasingly and understandably to identify the interest of the public with that of the existing companies on whom it must rely to deliver goods.

If Internet regulation follows the same course as other industries, the FCC and/or lawmakers will eventually indulge calls by all sides to bring more providers and technologies “into the regulatory fold.” Clearly, this process has already begun. Even before rules are on the books, the companies that have made America the leader in the Digital Revolution are turning on each other in a dangerous game of brinksmanship, escalating demands for regulation and playing right into the hands of those who want to bring the entire high-tech sector under the thumb of government—under an Orwellian conception of “Internet Freedom” that makes corporations the real Big Brother, and government, our savior.

Toward a Less MAD World: Digital Détente

Sincere defenders of real Internet Freedom—that is, freedom from government techno-meddling—recognize that there will always be disputes over how companies deal with each other online across all layers of the Internet. The question is not whether we need a technical coordinating mechanism for handling such disputes. Someone should mediate conflicts over alleged deviations from abstract neutrality principles. But should that arbitrator be an inherently political body like FCC? Or should we instead look to truly independent, apolitical arbitrators like the Internet Engineering Task Force or collaborative efforts like the Network Neutrality Squad? Such alternative dispute resolution mechanisms and fora need not have the power of law to be effective: The weight of their expert opinion, based on careful investigation of the facts, would likely resolve most disputes, because companies have strong reputational incentives to comply with reasoned rulings by truly neutral experts. And the white hot spotlight of public attention has a way of disciplining marketplace behavior as well.

Government would still have a role to play, of course, in enforcing antitrust laws where anticompetitive harm to consumers can be proven, and in enforcing the promises companies make to consumers. Ultimately, however, certain business models and technologies require non-neutral treatment, and the best remedy for concerns about non-neutrality is competition itself: In the high-tech sector more than any other, disruptive innovation makes it difficult for even the most successful companies to stay on top forever. Competitive entry—or even the threat of new entry—provides a powerful check on the power of so-called “gatekeepers,” but even more important is the prospect that today’s leaders will be tomorrow’s laggards: There’s little reason to think Google (search and advertising), Apple (smart phones and music) and Facebook (social networking) won’t someday find themselves playing catch-up, just as IBM (computers), Microsoft (desktop software and search), Friendster and MySpace (social networking), and Yahoo! and AOL (web portals) have had to do.

“Digital Détente” would require that all parties concede something and work constructively toward a more “peaceful” ( i.e., less regulatory) resolution. And yet, no Internet company wants to disarm unilaterally, foreswearing politics as a continuation of competition by other means. Only through multilateral disarmament could they break out of the current cycle of regulatory one-upmanship: If the companies in the Internet ecosystem could form a united front against increased government regulation and in favor of removing existing regulatory obstacles to competition, they could all return to their core competencies of creativity and innovation.

The alternative is a regulatory “nuclear winter”: high-tech titans turning their political fire on each other, catching innocent third parties in the cross-fire and bringing a dark cloud of government regulation over the entire Internet. Such increased regulation would stifle investment and innovation throughout the Internet ecosystem. Thus, it is consumers who will ultimately suffer most from the tech industry’s suicidal impulse, as their choices and digital lives are impoverished. For their sake, we hope all industry players will step back from the brink to avoid such high-tech mutually assured destruction.

http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=21520140&access_key=key-19drbeeuatgv35za6chl&page=1&version=1&viewMode=list]]> https://techliberation.com/2009/10/23/net-neutrality-slippery-slopes-high-tech-mutually-assured-destruction/feed/ 43 22825 Video from my Second Life Discussion about Government’s Place in Virtual Worlds https://techliberation.com/2009/10/09/video-of-my-second-life-discussion-about-governments-place-in-virtual-worlds/ https://techliberation.com/2009/10/09/video-of-my-second-life-discussion-about-governments-place-in-virtual-worlds/#comments Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:48:39 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=22402

I really enjoyed my Second Life appearance on “Government’s Place in Virtual Worlds and Online Communities,” which was hosted by Metanomics.  You can watch the entire segment on the Metanomics site.  But the folks at Metanomics have also posted 6 clips from the show at YouTube that highlight some of the topics we discussed.  Here’s the list of clips and the videos:

Part 1: Are the Feds about to Regulate Second Life & Virtual Worlds?

http://www.youtube.com/v/gbirOVrZ0bQ&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_profilepage&fs=1

Part 2: Global Communities, Local Values, Internet Governance & The Dangers of “Harmonization”

http://www.youtube.com/v/Ks62FvoOWh8&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_profilepage&fs=1

Part 3:  Virtual Child Pornography & Our Virtual Reality Future

http://www.youtube.com/v/Fvmc0bo6MFc&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_profilepage&fs=1

Part 4: Why Speech Controls & Privacy Regulations are Two Sides of the Same Coin

http://www.youtube.com/v/gSCgZE85U9E&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_profilepage&fs=1

Part 5: Privacy, Advertising, User Empowerment, and the “Free” Internet

http://www.youtube.com/v/yvb59cIjYkU&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_profilepage&fs=1

Part 6: Virtual World Self-Governance and a “Utopia of Utopias”

http://www.youtube.com/v/H4qEcfCCFCE&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_profilepage&fs=1

Finally, here’s some of the background material I referenced during the show:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2009/10/09/video-of-my-second-life-discussion-about-governments-place-in-virtual-worlds/feed/ 12 22402 Is Apple’s iPhone the End of Innovation? Hahn & Singer on Handset Exclusivity Fears https://techliberation.com/2009/09/27/is-apples-iphone-the-end-of-innovation-hahn-singer-on-handset-exclusivity-fears/ https://techliberation.com/2009/09/27/is-apples-iphone-the-end-of-innovation-hahn-singer-on-handset-exclusivity-fears/#comments Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:09:36 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=21803

In a week in which neutrality regulation is making a lot of news, I hope that Robert Hahn and Hal Singer’s terrific new study, “Why the iPhone Won’t Last Forever and What the Government Should Do to Promote its Successor” gets some attention. It provides a wonderful overview of how dynamically competitive the mobile marketplace has been over the past two decades and why critics are wrong to get worked up about the short-term “dominance” of Apple’s iPhone. Here’s the abstract of their paper:

Because of the overwhelming, positive response to the iPhone as compared to other smart phones, exclusive agreements between handset makers and wireless carriers have come under increasing scrutiny by regulators and lawmakers. In this paper, we document the myriad revolutions that have occurred in the mobile handset market over the past twenty years. Although casual observers have often claimed that a particular innovation was here to stay, they commonly are proven wrong by unforeseen developments in this fast-changing marketplace. We argue that exclusive agreements can play an important role in helping to ensure that another must-have device will soon come along that will supplant the iPhone, and generate large benefits for consumers. These agreements, which encourage risk taking, increase choice, and frequently lower prices, should be applauded by the government. In contrast, government regulation that would require forced sharing of a successful break-through technology is likely to stifle innovation and hurt consumer welfare.

“New technologies often seemingly emerge from nowhere, but also frequently lose their luster quickly,” Hahn and Singer go on to argue. As evidence they cite the recent examples of Second Life and MySpace, which were hyped as potentially become dominant providers in their respective areas just a few years ago, but now are subjected to intense competition. “[T]he the mobile handset market is subject to these same disruptive forces,” they argue:

an iconic handset emerges, is quickly crowned the “winner,” and soon thereafter is replaced by another technology that was not even conceived of at the time the “winner” was launched. Many iPhone-inspired smartphones, including the Blackberry Storm and the HTC G1, could unseat the iPhone in the smartphone segment. We argue that heavy-handed regulation of such dynamic markets is likely to reduce welfare on net. The cost of erring through regulatory intervention—for example, by restricting voluntary private agreements that promote risk taking—can be significant. Delaying the benefits associated with innovation in mobile handsets could cost consumers dearly. In sum, exclusive contracts between handset makers and wireless carriers benefit consumers by encouraging innovation by both handset makers and wireless service providers that are vying for market share, and by enabling some handset makers to remain viable. These benefits take the form of greater variety of choices in handsets, greatly enhanced capabilities, and a more affordable range of device options. Banning exclusive contracts could have the unintended consequence of reducing innovation, reducing options, raising prices, and potentially establishing market dominance for an incumbent handset maker.
Motorola MicroTAC flip phone

The End of Innovation?

In their excellent history of handset innovation over the past two decades, Hahn and Singer point out that there were many other “iconic” phones that some felt represented the end of the road in terms of innovation. I just love this quote they unearthed from a 1989 Fortune article about how the release of Motorola’s MicroTAC flip phone represented the apparent pinnacle of handset innovation: “Portable phones won’t get a lot smaller than this one. After all, they have to reach from your ear to your mouth.”

This highlights the myopia that sometimes accompanies technological forecasting and public policymaking.  We sometimes just can’t think “outside the box” and comprehend the ways in which technological devices or services might come along and leapfrog today’s market leaders. It gets back to the point I made in my recent book review of Gary Reback’s over-the-top ode to antitrust regulation, Free the Market:  Those who view markets through the lens of the a static competition, fixed-pie mentality always seem to live in fear of short term “market power” while those of us who believe in dynamic competition see markets in a constant state of flux and expect that sub-optimal market developments or configurations are exactly the spark that incentivizes new form of market entry, innovation, price competition, and so on.  And the real problem with that static competition mentality is that it often leads to knee-jerk regulatory responses.  Here’s how I put it in my recent debate with Larry Lessig:

What concerns me about the way Prof. Lessig approaches these issues in Code and in his subsequent work is that he is far too quick to declare the debate over by labeling short-term.. hiccups as sky-is-falling market failures. The end result of such myopic techno-pessimism is the inevitable call for governments to intervene and “do something” to correct supposed [market] failures.

In other words, have a little faith and some patience.  Apple’s iPhone is today’s hottest handset, but it’s hardly the end of innovation in this marketplace.  And we certainly don’t need handset regulation or “device neutrality” as a solution to this non-problem.  Read Hahn and Singer’s dynamite new paper for a better understanding of why that’s the case.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2009/09/27/is-apples-iphone-the-end-of-innovation-hahn-singer-on-handset-exclusivity-fears/feed/ 11 21803 Gary Reback’s Antitrust Love Letter https://techliberation.com/2009/09/20/gary-rebacks-antitrust-love-letter/ https://techliberation.com/2009/09/20/gary-rebacks-antitrust-love-letter/#comments Sun, 20 Sep 2009 17:18:54 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=21614

Reback book coverI recently finished reading Free the Market: Why Only Government Can Keep the Marketplace Competitive, a new book by noted antitrust agitator Gary L. Reback. Unsurprisingly, Reback, who led the antitrust jihad against Microsoft during the 1990s, has written a book that reads like an extended love letter to antitrust law. This man loves antitrust the way teenage girls love the Jonas Brothers — gushing, teary-eyed, ‘I-would-just-die-for-you’ sort of love.  In Reback’s world, antitrust seemingly has no costs, no downsides, no trade-offs.  It is our salvation and he serves as its high prophet. Everything good that happened in the world of high-tech over the past few decades?  Oh, you can thank Almighty Antitrust for that.  Anything bad that happened?  Well, then, clearly there just wasn’t enough antitrust enforcement!  That’s this book in a nutshell.

Think I’m kidding?  How about this gem of quote from pg. 247: “Antitrust enforcement spawned Silicon Valley’s software industry as well.”  Wow, who knew!  Of course, that’s utter poppycock and should be somewhat insulting to the many entrepreneurial men and women in the high-tech world who risked everything in an attempt to build a better mousetrap. In Reback’s view of things, however, none of those mousetraps would have ever gotten built without antitrust there to supposedly shelter them from wicked “monopolists” (read: any large company) already operating in the marketplace.   I’m sure many in Silicon Valley will also be surprised to hear Reback’s assertion that, “On closer examination, the Valley looks like one big public welfare project.” (p. 54)  Ah yes, the old myth that government gave us the Net we know and love today. Please. Like many others, Reback spins a revisionist history of how early ARPANET involvement and seed money somehow made the Internet great when, in reality, the Net was stuck in the digital dark ages until it was finally allowed to be commercialized in 1992.

What irks me most about this book, however, is Reback’s perpetuation of the myth that antitrust is somehow not a form of economic regulation.  I hear this tired old argument trotted out time and time again, even by many conservatives. Reback says, for example, that “Antitrust sets the rules of the road, so to speak, but doesn’t tell people where to drive.” By contrast, he argues, “Advocates of regulation want[] continuing government oversight and rule making to produce what would be the beneficial results of a free market… Neither approach works all the time, and decided between them remains difficult.” (p. 19)  Again, this “choice” is largely a fiction since, for many industries, we end up getting both!

But the even bigger fiction here is the suggestion that antitrust law doesn’t “tell people where to drive.”  It most certainly does. Hell, it practically redraws the entire map of where you can drive!  And it massively distorts markets in the process, just as regulation does.  As Wayne Crews noted in the opening lines of  his excellent 2001 Cato Institute white paper,”The Antitrust Terrible 10: Why the Most Reviled “Anti-competitive” Business Practices Can Benefit Consumers in the New Economy“:

Antitrust law is a form of economic regulation.  And like all economic regulation, it transfers wealth, often in response to special-interest urging… [I]n antitrust cases, the targeted companies’ rivals have a direct financial, as opposed to ethical, interest in the outcome. Assertions that antitrust law is in the public interest do not change the fact that the private motives of rivals, and even ambitious enforcers, are always lurking in the background.

Moreover, in his important 2001 study on “The Failure of Structural Remedies in Sherman Act Monopolization Cases,” economist Robert W. Crandall of the Brookings Institution noted:

An antitrust decree may be even counterproductive by establishing an inefficient market structure… A decree may also be ineffective because the government and the court fail to anticipate changes in technology or customer demand. ..
The ongoing costs of enforcing antitrust decrees can be very large. If an industry is changing rapidly, structural remedies may be difficult to enforce…  Most of the antitrust decrees in the leading cases analyzed below continued in effect for many years, even decades. In many cases, these decrees required the continual supervision by the lower court and often led to appeals to the higher courts.

So much for antitrust supposedly not being a form of economic regulation and not having substantial costs. Moreover, after surveying 95 major Section 2 Sherman Act cases won by the government or ending in consent decrees, Crandall concluded that there was “remarkably little evidence that these cases and the relief that emanated from them had a positive effect on competition and consumer welfare.”  Gary Reback is unmoved by such evidence, however. Instead, he just builds his narrative on the old myth of the robber barons that so many antitrust crusaders rely on, and which has long-since been discredited by serious economic historians.

Perhaps worst of all, in Reback’s world, there’s no such thing as too much litigation when it comes to antitrust enforcement:

“Just keep on suing them” is a time-honored American antitrust strategy of choice for dealing with dominant firms that choke vast sectors of the economy. The magnitude of the potential gain to society from opening multiple markets to competition more than offsets the somewhat uncertain likelihood of producing the right results by bold antitrust enforcement. (p. 246)

Again, no mention here of the deadweight loss to society associated with years and years of legal wrangling that accompanies such lawsuits.  Reback just sweeps all that under the rug — and why wouldn’t he as an antitrust lawyer!  But those costs on the economy and innovation are real.  There’s also no serious mention of how antitrust law has all too often been used as weapon by disgruntled marketplace competitors to hobble rivals using such legal tactics.  Reback gives the same lip service to antitrust being about “protecting consumers” as many other defenders do, but all too often his book — like antitrust law itself — sounds more like a defense of certain companies, industry sectors, or old ways of doing business.

Oh, and the earlier antitrust intervention and litigation comes the better!  That’s another favorite of Reback and the antitrust bar. Referring specifically to the Microsoft case, Reback argues that, “government intervention at an early stage of market development was less intrusive and more beneficial than waiting for a bad problem to get worse.”  (p. 185)  Where does one draw the line in terms of how early might be too early to intervene?  Reback never makes it clear because, as with so much else in the world of antitrust, it’s all an arbitrary guessing game.  We’ll let unelected bureaucrats and judges make those judgment calls and engage in a preemptive strike to establish a sensible industrial policy competition policy for high-tech markets.  After all, it’s not like these markets are fast-moving and prone to sudden disruptive change or anything!

Let’s be clear about something here.  What separates Mr. Reback from those of us here who are antitrust skeptics is not the question of whether “market power” sometimes exists within certain industry sectors.  There certainly are times when it does, but we differ over how to best deal with those problems.  To borrow from some remarks I made during a recent debate with Larry Lessig, what separates us is that those of us who are antitrust skeptics believe that market power concerns:

are ultimately better addressed by voluntary, spontaneous, bottom-up, marketplace responses than by coerced, top-down, governmental solutions. Moreover, the decisive advantage of the market-driven approach to correcting [market] failure comes down to the rapidity and nimbleness of those response(s).

Of course, this assumes we can agree on a definition of “market failure.” What concerns me about the way antitrust proponents come at things is that they are typically far too quick to declare short-term market fluctuations as sky-is-falling market failures.  The end result of such myopic thinking is the inevitable call for governments to intervene and “do something” to correct supposed market failures that will likely adjust in time.  Thus, we antitrust skeptics counsel patience over preemptive strikes.  Again, here’s how I put it in that debate with Prof. Lessig:

Let’s give those other forces — alternative platforms, new innovators, social norms, public pressure, etc. — a chance to work some magic. Evolution happens, if you let it. Moreover, if you are always running around crying “market failure!” and calling in the code cops, it creates perverse marketplace incentives by discouraging efforts to innovate or “route around” bad code or code failure. We don’t want the whole world sitting around waiting for government to regulate the mousetrap to improve it or even give everyone better access to it; we should want the world to be innovating to create better mousetraps! [But] one need not believe that the markets… are “perfectly competitive” to accept that they are “competitive enough” — or at least, better than regulatory alternatives.

I can think of no better example of this than the case of IBM in the 1970s and early 80s.  Back then, IBM was the big, bad dog of the computing world, with significant “market power” in mainframes — the only computers that really counted at the time.  And some folks at the time feared IBM might “leverage” that power into new fields. As a result, the Department of Justice opened an antitrust case against Big Blue in 1969 that would become a 13-year quagmire, with little to show for all the legal wrangling by the time the case was abandoned in 1982.  Here’s how CNet staff writer Rachel Konrad summarized the fiasco back in 2000:

In January 1969, the government began a sweeping antitrust investigation into IBM’s dominance and attempted to break it into smaller companies that would compete against one another. During the six most critical years of the trial, from 1975 to 1980, the parties called 974 witnesses and read 104,400 pages of transcripts, according to Emerson Pugh’s 1995 book “Building IBM: Shaping an Industry and Its Technology.”
The 13-year investigation, which required IBM to retain 200 attorneys at one point, fizzled in the early ’80s as the computing landscape shifted from mainframes to personal computers. The government abandoned the tainted effort entirely in 1982, as clones of the IBM PC eroded Big Blue’s dominance. But the company, still fearful of the watchful eye of the Justice Department, took pains to avoid the appearance of a monopoly long after it relinquished its hold on the market. People who worked for IBM in the ’80s and early ’90s said the company routinely fell victim to “pricing death strategy”–a reluctance to lower prices below cost, even on products that weren’t selling–to avoid what the government would call predatory pricing. By the mid-’80s, the company was in bad shape. The antitrust troubles, combined with ill-timed product failures such as the Future System, pinched revenues. The company began a nearly decade-long financial slide. In retrospect, the antitrust case against IBM seemed laughable.

IBM had become the victim of a classic “disruptive technology” paradigm shift that few could have foreseen in 1969.  As Peter Pitsch noted in his 1996 PFF book The  Innovation Age, “In 1981 the Department of Justice was still pressing their case against IBM while market forces were about to lay waste to the company.” Pitsch continued:

IBM certainly did not expect to see PCs erode the market share and profitability of its venerable mainframe computers, but the fall of the old “big iron” machines was rapid and spectacular. The revenue of IBM’s mainframe unit fell from roughly $9 billion in 1990 to an estimated $4.5 billion in 1994… [T]he parties destined to become players in the PC revolution were unknown when the PC was introduced, and the experts’ predictions of a much-ballyhooed computer face-off between IBM and AT&T never materialized. Innovative companies that did not exist at the beginning of the revolution rose rapidly. Few people had ever heard of a small company named Microsoft. Nor had they heard of Intel, Novell, Compaq, Dell, or Netscape.

Pitsch went on to summarize how IBM’s manufacturing capacity was slashed in the years that followed and also notes that, astonishingly, “ in the space of five years after 1987, IBM lost two thirds of its market value — more than $70 billion.”  In sum, new marketplace innovation and competition handled the short-term market power concern that antitrust regulators had about Big Blue.  Pitsch goes on to explain what the antitrust regulators missed:

A dominant firm can lose its “King of the Hill” status in two ways. First, if it does not continually improve, it will lose market share and profits to low-cost imitators. For example, the ability of low-end PC manufacturers to make IBM clones fostered robust price competition in the PC market. Second, today’s market leaders must worry that some established and well-financed competitor or possibly an upstart produce a technical breakthrough that will displace them. This situation reflects [the] fact that gains from innovation are so powerful and beneficial to consumers that they outweigh the higher prices dominant firms can charge. Indeed, attempts to eliminate these high profits by regulating prices would almost certainly disserve consumers even if the regulations dampened the incentives for innovation only slightly.

What Pitsch is talking about here is dynamic competition, not the static competition, fixed-pie mentality that Gary Reback and so many antitrust defenders espouse.  Those of us who believe in dynamic competition see markets in a constant state of flux and expect that sub-optimal market developments or configurations are exactly the spark that incentivizes new form of market entry, innovation, price competition, and so on. But the static competition crowd looks at the same situation outlined above and imagines that the only hope is to wheel in the wrecking ball of antitrust regulation.  Indeed, such dynamic thinking is completely alien — even outlandish — to passionate antitrust supporters like Reback.  Nonetheless, the last 30 or 40 years of economic literature on antitrust — and the work of “Chicago School” economists in particular — has illustrated that antitrust is not the pro-consumer nirvana that Reback makes it out to be.

But Reback considers just about everything the Chicago School taught us to be antitrust apostasy and he would like to erase four decades worth of economic literature and evidence that suggests antitrust law is a form of economic regulation and does have unintended consequences that often hurt consumer welfare.  His fairy tale narrative of antitrust as the savior of capitalism is utter rubbish, and his recommendations to expand antitrust enforcement wouldn’t “Free the Market” as he argues in his book’s shameful title, but would instead wrap it in chains.

In closing, I would just like to encourage everyone to go out right now and read R.W. Grant’s classic story about the madness of antitrust, “Tom Smith and His Incredible Bread Machine.”  Or, if you want a more serious treatment of the issue, then I highly recommend Dominick T. Armentano’s, Antitrust and Monopoly: Anatomy of a Policy Failure.  Oh, and just for kicks, you might want to read this Wall Street Journal story from earlier this week about how antitrust officials are being pressed by dairy farmers to open an antitrust investigation because some of them believe consolidation is responsible for the fact that milk prices have dropped 36% recently, the lowest level in three decades.  Only deep in the story do you read that: “Consumers are benefiting. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its monthly Consumer Price Index report released Wednesday that retail dairy prices in August were 10.4% lower than they were a year ago.”  Of course, once you realize that antitrust is more about protecting companies than protecting consumers you are not surprised that such information becomes an afterthought.

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