[Remarks p repared for Fifth Annual Conference on Governance of Emerging Technologies: Law, Policy & Ethics at Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, May 18, 2017.]

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What are we to make of this peculiar new term “permissionless innovation,” which has gained increasing currency in modern technology policy discussions? And how much relevance has this notion had—or should it have—on those conversations about the governance of emerging technologies? That’s what I’d like to discuss here today.

Uncertain Origins, Unclear Definitions

I should begin by noting that while I have written a book with the term in the title, I take no credit for coining the phrase “permissionless innovation,” nor have I been able to determine who the first person was to use the term. The phrase is sometimes attributed to Grace M. Hopper, a computer scientist who was a rear admiral in the United States Navy. She once famously noted that, “It’s easier to ask forgiveness than it is to get permission.”

“Hopper’s Law,” as it has come to be known in engineering circles, is probably the most concise articulation of the general notion of “permissionless innovation” that I’ve ever heard, but Hopper does not appear to have ever used the actual phrase anywhere. Moreover, Hopper was not necessarily applying this notion to the realm of technological governance, but was seemingly speaking more generically about the benefit of trying new things without asking for the blessing of any number of unnamed authorities or overseers—which could include businesses, bosses, teachers, or perhaps even government officials.

Today, however, we most often hear the “permissionless innovation” used in discussions about the governance of information technologies as well as a wide variety of emerging technologies. Unfortunately, scholars and advocates who have suggested that permissionless innovation should serve as the governing lodestar in these areas do not always precisely define what they mean by the term.

None of them seem to be suggesting, however, that permissionless innovation is synonymous with anarchy. To the contrary, many of them are quick to note that governments will continue to have a role to play. It is even rare to see advocates of permissionless innovation in these varied contexts calling for the abolition of any laws, programs, or agencies.

Instead, it seems to be the case that most of those defenders of permissionless innovation are using the term as a sort of shorthand when what they really mean to say is something like: “give innovators a bit more breathing room,” or, “don’t rush to regulate.”

This is consistent with my own articulation of the term, which goes as follows:

“Permissionless innovation refers to the notion that experimentation with new technologies and business models should generally be permitted by default. Unless a compelling case can be made that a new invention will bring serious harm to society, innovation should be allowed to continue unabated and problems, if any develop, can be addressed later.”

Default Policy Positions

Framing the term in this fashion makes it clear that, as it pertains to technological governance, permissionless innovation is about setting our public policy defaults closer to green lights rather than red ones.

It switches the burden of proof to the opponents of ongoing technological change by asserting five things:

• First, technological innovation is the single most important determinant of long-term human well-being.
• Second, there is real value to learning through continued trial-and-error experimentation, resiliency, and ongoing adaptation to technological change.
• Third, constraints on new innovation should be the last resort, not the first. Innovation should be innocent until proven guilty.
• Fourth, as regulatory interventions are considered, policy should be based on evidence of concrete potential harm and not fear of worst-case hypotheticals.
• Fifth, and finally, where policy interventions are deemed needed, flexible, bottom-up solutions of an ex post (responsive) nature are almost always preferable to rigid, top-down controls of an ex ante (anticipatory) nature.

Shared Shortcomings of Both Visions

At least on the surface, that sort of governance vision stands in stark contrast to the “precautionary principle.” Defenders of the precautionary principle as the general default position in technology policy debates generally believe that new innovations should be curtailed or disallowed until their developers can prove that they will not cause any harm to individuals, groups, specific entities, cultural norms, or various existing laws, norms, or traditions.

That being said, I’d like to point out some of the shared shortcomings of both of these governance visions.

First, as with attempts to define the parameters of “permissionless innovation,” the precautionary principle is not always as rigid as its critics sometimes suggest. There are as many flavors of the precautionary principle as there are ice cream. Indeed, this is why many have criticized the precautionary principle not for what it says but rather for what it doesn’t say. It doesn’t tell us exactly how and when to apply precautionary measures, or how to evaluate the trade-offs associated with precaution.

This points the second and deeper underlying problem faced by advocates of both precautionary measures and permissionless innovation: Our collective inability to craft a widely-shared definition of what constitutes “technological harm” in various contexts. This is certainly not to suggest that no attempt has been made to do so. Rather, simply that we don’t seem to be any closer to concrete agreement about how or where to draw those lines.

Of course, let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that we can find bright-line answers to all these questions. After all, for many of these technological governance issues we are operating in the realm of “Level 3” or “Earth-level” systems, as Professors Allenby and Sarewitz refer to it in their book, The Techno-Human Condition. These are systems in which we deal with, as they say, “a context that is always shifting, and on meanings that are never fixed.”

That makes it even more challenging to define what we mean by “responsible innovation” or “socially desirable innovation” for purposes of determining optimal technology policy.

Risk Analysis through the Lens of Permissionless Innovation

For me, there are no easy ways out of this mess. But I do know two things for certain.

First, we must continue to refine and improve our risk analysis tools and techniques to make better determinations of when proposed interventions are sensible and cost-effective relative to the many trade-offs at work.

Again, I recognize the challenge of doing this when many of the issues and values in play are amorphous and metaphysical conflicts exist about how to even define some of these things. Most of the emerging technology policy issues I write about today, for example, involve some sort of privacy, safety, or security concern. In each case, however, very little consensus exists about what those terms even mean in varied contexts.

Nonetheless, the fact that benefit-cost analysis is hard should not serve as an excuse for failing to go through the exercise of attempting some sort of valuation of the many variables in play.

Soft Law Alternatives

The second thing I know for certain is that, due the combination of both definitional complexity regarding what constitutes technological harm, as well as the ever-accelerating pace of the so-called “pacing problem,” all roads lead back to soft law solutions instead of hard law remedies.

Last year, I had the pleasure of reading and reviewing Wendell Wallach’s new book and then having a nice conversation with him about it at Microsoft’s DC headquarters. The most interesting thing about our exchange was that, although we do not begin in the same place philosophically-speaking, we largely end up in the same place practically-speaking.

That is, there seemed to be some grudging acceptance on both our parts that “soft law” systems, multistakeholder processes, and various other informal governance mechanisms will need to fill the governance gap left by the gradual erosion of hard law.

Many other scholars, including many of you in this room, have discussed the growth of soft law mechanisms in specific contexts, but I believe we have probably failed to acknowledge the extent to which these informal governance models have already become the dominant form of technological governance, at least in the United States.

I’m currently co-authoring a very long study which documents how the Obama Administration came to rely quite heavily on multistakeholder processes, negotiated “best practices,” and industry codes of conduct as the primary governance mechanisms for a long list of emerging tech issues, including: driverless cars, commercial drones, big data, facial recognition, the Internet of Things and wearable technology, mobile medical applications, 3D printing, artificial intelligence, the Sharing Economy, and much more.

Most of these soft law processes were driven by the NTIA and FTC, but plenty of other agencies with an “N” or an “F” at the beginning of their name have undertaken some sort of soft law process, including NHTSA, the FDA, the FAA, and so on.

Now, I’m willing to bet that many of those involved in these processes who generally favor more anticipatory regulatory approaches would have preferred to start with hard law solutions to some of these issues. And I am equally certain that many of the innovators involved in those multistakeholder processes would have probably preferred not to have had to come to the table at all.

But at the end of the day, for the most part, all sides did come to the table and worked together in a good faith effort to find some rough consensus about what sort of informal guidelines would govern the future of innovation in these sectors.

The Worst of All Systems, Except All the Others

Plenty of questions remain about such soft law systems, and the irony is that defenders of both permissionless innovation and the precautionary principle will quite often be raising very similar concerns regarding the transparency, accountability, and enforceability of these systems.

But I’m inclined to believe that no matter where you sit on the permissionless vs. precautionary spectrum, and no matter what your reservations may be about it the new world of soft law governance that we find ourselves moving into, this is the future and the future is now.

Much as Churchill said of democracy being “the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time,” I think we are well on our way to a world in which soft law is the worst form of technological governance except for all those others that have been tried before.

Of course, the devil is always in the details and I suspect that we’ll have plenty of discuss and debate in that regard. Let’s get that conversation going.

This morning at the Newseum in Washington, DC, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton delivered remarks on Internet freedom and the future of global free speech and expression. [Transcript is here + video.] It will go down as a historic speech in the field of Internet policy since she drew a bold line in the cyber-sand regarding exactly where the United States stands on global online freedom. Clinton’s answer was unequivocal: “Both the American people and nations that censor the Internet should understand that our government is committed to helping promote Internet freedom.” “The Internet can serve as a great equalizer,” she argued. “By providing people with access to knowledge and potential markets, networks can create opportunities where none exist.”

Unfortunately, however, “the same networks that help organize movements for freedom… can also be hijacked by governments to crush dissent and deny human rights.”  Echoing Winston Churchill’s famous “iron curtain” speech, Sec. Clinton argued that “With the spread of these restrictive practices, a new information curtain is descending across much of the world.”  She noted that virtual walls are replacing traditional walls in many nations as repressive regimes seek to squash the liberties of their citizenry.  That’s why the Administration’s bold stand in favor of online freedom is so essential.

Importantly, Sec. Clinton made it clear that the Obama Administration is ready to commit significant resources to this effort. She said that, over the next year, the State Department plans to work with others to establish a standing effort to promote technology and will invite technologists to help advance the cause through a new “innovation competition” that will promote circumvention technologies and other technologies of freedom. Sec. Clinton also challenged private companies to stand up to censorship globally and challenge foreign governments when they demand controls on the free flow of information or digital technology.

That is particularly important because Secretary Clinton’s speech comes on the heels of the recent news that Google and at least 30 other Internet companies were the victims of cyberattacks in China, which raises profound questions about the future of online freedom and cybersecurity. Sec. Clinton’s remarks will make it clear to online operators that the U.S. government stands prepared to back them up when they challenge the censorial policies of repressive foreign regimes.

It’s also worth noting that, back in October, Secretary Clinton took a bold stand on global religious defamation policies, which are becoming a growing international concern from a free speech perspective. I praised her for that speech here and noted how important it was that Administration officials put issues such as freedom of religious worship and freedom of speech and expression front and center in future foreign diplomacy efforts. With today’s speech, Sec. Clinton and the Obama Administration have again risen to that challenge by making it clear that these issues will now be part of future diplomatic efforts and discussions.

At one point she joked that somewhere in the world a foreign government official was trying to censor her speech as she delivered it! But she’s right: Plenty of foreign government are still aggressively attempting to censor the Net and to repress digital technologies every second of the day. To put things in perspective, just yesterday, the OpenNet Initiative (ONI) reported that more than half a billion Internet users are being filtered worldwide. And if you want a country-by-country synopsis of just how bad things are, check out the amazing report, Access Denied: The Practice and Policy of Global Internet Filtering, which is compiled by several scholars involved in the ONI project.

To understand the profound (and somewhat ironical) historical significance of Sec. Clinton’s speech today, you need to remember that less than 15 years ago in this country we had a heated debate over whether American citizens should even be allowed to use encryption technology, or if the government should “hold the keys” to such technologies. Luckily, the “Clipper Chip” wars ended when Hillary’s husband and his Administration basically gave up in its efforts to pursue it further. Moreover, I can’t help but recall what Mrs. Clinton said after the White House sex scandal erupted back in 1998 and the details spread rapidly across the Internet: “We are all going to have to rethink how we deal with [the Internet], because there are all these competing values,” she said. “Without any kind of editing function or gatekeeping function, what does it mean to have the right to defend your reputation?”  It seems like Mrs. Clinton has come a long way, so much so that she is now defending technologies — and is apparently willing to even subsidize technologies — that will allow citizens to evade “gatekeepers” of all sorts.

I also appreciated Sec. Clinton’s quip that “once you’re on the internet, you don’t need to be a tycoon or a rock star to have a huge impact on society.”  She repeatedly argued in her speech that the Internet has empowered every man, woman, and child to be heard and to make a difference in this world.  Amen.  But those opportunities for each of us to make a difference can only be realized if governments worldwide are willing to let them happen. I’ve always generally agreed with John Gilmore’s famous quip that “the Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it.”  Nonetheless, I’m not a quixotic utopian when it comes to these things. I’m enough of a realist to understand that if governments put enough effort into the task, they can quash networks and silence a great deal of expression.  However, it’s a far more difficult undertaking today than it was in the past. The sheer volume and scope of online activity alone makes it an enormous undertaking.

Could we be on the verge of “the end of censorship” as I have wondered here before? Probably not any time soon, but thanks to the bold vision and steps that Secretary Clinton and Obama Administration announced today, we are a little bit closer.

Additional Reading / Listening:

• an NPR report about the issue this morning featuring Alec Ross, Sec. Clinton’s Senior Advisor for Innovation at the U.S. Department of State
• 21st Century Statecraft – Diplomacy in the Age of Facebook and Twitter – also w/ Alec Ross
• Freedom on the Net: A Global Assessment of Internet and Digital Media (Freedom House Publication)
• 2009 Report on International Religious Freedom
• Global Network Initiative Statement on U.S. Secretary of State Clinton’s Address on Internet Freedom
• Larry Magid (CNet.com) podcast on the speech
• thoughts from Craig Mundie, Chief Research and Strategy Officer at Microsoft
• more about the speech from New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Reuters, Ars Technica, Huffington Post,