china – Technology Liberation Front https://techliberation.com Keeping politicians' hands off the Net & everything else related to technology Thu, 03 Apr 2025 23:20:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 6772528 Self-Inflicted Technological Suicide https://techliberation.com/2023/01/26/self-inflicted-technological-suicide/ https://techliberation.com/2023/01/26/self-inflicted-technological-suicide/#comments Fri, 27 Jan 2023 00:26:11 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77077

The Wall Street Journal has run my response to troubling recent opeds by President Biden (“Republicans and Democrats, Unite Against Big Tech Abuses“) and former Trump Administration Attorney General William Barr (“Congress Must Halt Big Tech’s Power Grab“) in which they both called for European-style regulation of U.S. digital technology markets.

“The only thing Europe exports now on the digital-technology front is regulation,” I noted in my response, and that makes it all the more mind-boggling that Biden and Barr want to go down that same path. “[T]he EU’s big-government regulatory crusade against digital tech: Stagnant markets, limited innovation and a dearth of major players. Overregulation by EU bureaucrats led Europe’s best entrepreneurs and investors to flee to the U.S. or elsewhere in search of the freedom to innovate.”

Thus, the Biden and Barr plans for importing European-style tech mandates, “would be a stake through the heart of the ‘permissionless innovation’ that made America’s info-tech economy a global powerhouse.” In a longer response to the Biden oped that I published on the R Street blog, I note that:

“It is remarkable to think that after years of everyone complaining about the lack of bipartisanship in Washington, we might get the one type of bipartisanship America absolutely does not need: the single most destructive technological suicide in U.S. history, with mandates being substituted for markets, and permission slips for entrepreneurial freedom.”

What makes all this even more remarkable is that they calls for hyper-regulation come at a time when China is challenging America’s dominance in technology and AI. Thus, “new mandates could compromise America’s lead,” I conclude. “Shackling our tech sectors with regulatory chains will hobble our nation’s ability to meet global competition and undermine innovation and consumer choice domestically.”

Jump over to the WSJ to read my entire response (“EU-Style Regulation Begets EU-Style Stagnation“) and to the R Street blog for my longer essay (“President Biden Wants America to Become Europe on Tech Regulation“).

]]> https://techliberation.com/2023/01/26/self-inflicted-technological-suicide/feed/ 1 77077 Revisionist Histories of America’s Digital Revolution https://techliberation.com/2022/12/11/revisionist-histories-of-americas-digital-revolution/ https://techliberation.com/2022/12/11/revisionist-histories-of-americas-digital-revolution/#comments Sun, 11 Dec 2022 16:15:09 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77068

Everywhere you look in tech policy land these days, people decry China as a threat to America’s technological supremacy or our national security. Many of these claims are well-founded, while others are somewhat overblown. Regardless, as I argue in a new piece for National Review this week, “America Won’t Beat China by Becoming China.” Many pundits and policymakers seem to think that only a massive dose of central planning and Big Government technocratic bureaucracy can counter the Chinese threat. It’s a recipe for a great deal of policy mischief.

Some of these advocates for a ‘let’s-be-more-like-China’ approach to tech policy also engage in revisionist histories about America’s recent success stories in the personal computing revolution and internet revolution. As I note in my essay, “[t]he revisionists instead prefer to believe that someone high up in government was carefully guiding this decentralized innovation. In the new telling of this story, deregulation had almost nothing to do with it.” In fact, I was asked by  National Review to write this piece in response to a recent essay by Wells King of American Compass, who has penned some rather remarkable revisionist tales of government basically being responsible for all the innovation in digital tech sectors over the past quarter century. Markets and venture capital had nothing to do with it by his reasoning. It’s what Science writer Matt Ridley correctly labels “innovation creationism,” or the notion that it basically takes a village to raise an innovator.

Perhaps the best example of this sort of twisted logic was President Barack Obama’s infamous 2012 “you didn’t build that” speech, which was widely mocked by many conservatives at the time as being completely off the mark. The conservative critics rightly lambasted Obama for underplaying the role of markets, entrepreneurs, and private investors as the primary engine of America’s remarkably innovative economy. Unfortunately, however, many of today’s “national conservatives” are borrowing Obama’s twisted revisionist vision and, worse yet, fabricating entirely new nonsensical ‘it-takes-a-village’ narratives that go well beyond it.

In my essay, I explain why innovation creationism about the internet and the Digital Revolution gets the story of the past quarter century horribly wrong. The tech revisionist misidentify and overplay the role government played in this arena and they also ignore the many mistakes our government and other governments (especially in Europe) have made when trying to technocratically plan tech systems. As I conclude in my essay,

America’s world-leading digital-technology companies and technologies were not the product of intentional design or bureaucratic initiatives. Corporatism and central planning should be rejected as the basis for U.S. technology policy. And regardless of whether they happen to be trendy right now, economically illiterate arguments like King’s should be relegated to the ash heap of history.

Jump over to  National Review to read the entire essay.  And here’s a list of some of my other recent writing on industrial policy:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/12/11/revisionist-histories-of-americas-digital-revolution/feed/ 2 77068 AI Eats the World: Preparing for the Computational Revolution and the Policy Debates Ahead https://techliberation.com/2022/09/12/ai-eats-the-world-preparing-for-the-computational-revolution-and-the-policy-debates-ahead/ https://techliberation.com/2022/09/12/ai-eats-the-world-preparing-for-the-computational-revolution-and-the-policy-debates-ahead/#comments Mon, 12 Sep 2022 23:52:26 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77039

[Cross-posted from Medium.]

The Coming Computational Revolution

Thomas Edison once spoke of how electricity was a “field of fields.” This is even more true of AI, which is ready to bring about a sweeping technological revolution. In Carlota Perez’s influential 2009 paper on “Technological Revolutions and Techno-economic Paradigms,” she defined a technological revolution “as a set of interrelated radical breakthroughs, forming a major constellation of interdependent technologies; a cluster of clusters or a system of systems.” To be considered a legitimate technological revolution, Perez argued, the technology or technological process must be “opening a vast innovation opportunity space and providing a new set of associated generic technologies, infrastructures and organisational principles that can significantly increase the efficiency and effectiveness of all industries and activities.” In other words, she concluded, the technology must have “the power to bring about a transformation across the board.”

Expanding Our Skillset

Thus, AI (and AI policy) is multi-dimensional, amorphous, and ever-changing. It has many layers and complexities. This will require public policy analysts and institutions to reorient their focus and develop new capabilities.

Mapping the AI Policy Terrain: Broad vs. Narrow

Beyond talent development, the other major challenge is issue coverage. How can we cover all the AI policy bases? There are two general categories of AI concerns, and supporters of free markets need to be prepared to engage on both battlefields.

Confronting the Formidable Resistance to Change

Finally, free-market analysts and organizations must prepare to defend the general concept of progress through technological change as AI becomes a central social, economic, and legal battleground — both domestically and globally. Every technological revolution involves major social and economic disruptions and gives rise to intense efforts to defend the status quo and block progress. As Perez concludes, “the profound and wide-ranging changes made possible by each technological revolution and its techno-economic paradigm are not easily assimilated; they give rise to intense resistance.”

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/09/12/ai-eats-the-world-preparing-for-the-computational-revolution-and-the-policy-debates-ahead/feed/ 3 77039 Why the Future of AI Will Not Be Invented in Europe https://techliberation.com/2022/08/01/why-the-future-of-ai-will-not-be-invented-in-europe/ https://techliberation.com/2022/08/01/why-the-future-of-ai-will-not-be-invented-in-europe/#comments Mon, 01 Aug 2022 18:28:40 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77016

For my latest column in The Hill, I explored the European Union’s (EU) endlessly expanding push to regulate all facets of the modern data economy. That now includes a new effort to regulate artificial intelligence (AI) using the same sort of top-down, heavy-handed, bureaucratic compliance regime that has stifled digital innovation on the continent over the past quarter century.

The European Commission (EC) is advancing a new Artificial Intelligence Act, which proposes banning some AI technologies while classifying many others under a heavily controlled “high-risk” category. A new bureaucracy, the European Artificial Intelligence Board, will be tasked with enforcing a wide variety of new rules, including “prior conformity assessments,” which are like permission slips for algorithmic innovators. Steep fines are also part of the plan. There’s a lengthy list of covered sectors and technologies, with many others that could be added in coming years. It’s no wonder, then, that the measure has been labelled the measure “the mother of all AI laws” and analysts have argued it will further burden innovation and investment in Europe.

As I noted in my new column, the consensus about Europe’s future on the emerging technology front is dismal to put it mildly. The International Economy journal recently asked 11 experts from Europe and the U.S. where the EU currently stood in global tech competition. Responses were nearly unanimous and bluntly summarized by the symposium’s title: “The Biggest Loser.” Respondents said Europe is “lagging behind in the global tech race,” and “unlikely to become a global hub of innovation.” “The future will not be invented in Europe,” another analyst bluntly concluded.

That’s a grim assessment, but there is no doubt that European competitiveness is suffering today and that excessive regulation plays a fairly significant role in causing it. As I noted in my column, “the EU’s risk-averse culture and preference for paperwork compliance over entrepreneurial freedom” had serious consequences for continent-wide innovation.  I note in my recent column how:

After the continent piled on layers of data restrictions beginning in the mid-1990s, innovation and investment suffered. Regulation grew more complex with the 2018 General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which further limits data collection and use. As a result of all the red tape, the EU came away from the digital revolution with “the complete absence of superstar companies.” There are no serious European versions of Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple or Amazon. Europe’s leading providers of digital technology services today are American-based companies.

Let’s take a look at a few numbers that illustrate what’s happened in Europe’s tech sector over the past quarter century. Here’s an old KPGM breakdown of market caps for public Internet companies over an important 20 year period, from 1995 to 2015, when the digital technology marketplace was taking shape. Besides the remarkable amount of churn over that period (with only Apple appearing on both lists), the other notable thing is the complete absence of any European companies in 2015.

Next, here’s a chart I constructed using CB Insights data for global unicorns ($billion valued companies) from 2010 up through early 2022. It shows how the U.S. dominates fully half the list with China having a 16% share, but all of the European Union’s firms equal just a 9 percent slice of the world’s share.

If you want to see a per capita breakdown of VC investment by country, here’s a handy Crunchbase News chart. While the U.S. is geographically much larger than Europe, a breakdown of VC funding on a per capita basis reveals that only Estonia ($915B) and Sweden ($700B) have startup investment on par with America ($808B). No other European country has even half as much per capita VC investment as the U.S., and most don’t even have a quarter as much.

As we enter the “age of AI,” what will the EU’s same regulatory model for mean for AI, machine learning, and robotics in Europe? We do have some early data on that, too. Here’s a breakdown of AI-related VC activity and AI unicorn in 2021 from the recent State of AI Report 2021, with European countries already trailing far behind:

Also, here’s some data on recent AI investment by region from the latest Stanford “AI Index Report 2022” which again highlights a gap that is only growing larger:

It’s important to listen to what actual AI innovators across the Atlantic have to say about the new EU regulatory efforts. Just last month, the UK-based Coalition for a Digital Economy (Coadec), an advocacy group for Britain’s technology-led startups, published a report entitled, “What do AI Startups Want from Regulation?” Coadec surveyed its members to gauge their feelings about the EU’s proposed approach to AI regulation, as well as the UK’s. 76% of those startups said that their business model would be either negatively affected or become infeasible if the UK were to echo the EU by making AI developers liable, and an equal percentage said they had varying concerns about whether it’s technically even feasible to make their datasets “free of errors,” as the EU looks set to demand. Respondents also said they feared that the new AI Act would be particularly burdensome to small and mid-size entrepreneurs because they cannot afford to deal with the costly compliance hassles like the larger competitors they face. This would end of being a replay of the burdens they faced from GDPR, which decimated small businesses. “The experience of GDPR demonstrated how unclear, complex and expensive regulations drove many startups out of business, and disproportionately impact startups that survived–GDPR compliance cost startups significantly more than it did the Tech Giants,” the Coadec report concluded.

At least those UK-based innovators might be in a slightly better position post-Brexit with the British government now looking to chart a different–and much less burdensome–governance approach for digital technologies. In fact, the UK government recently released a major policy document on “Establishing a Pro-Innovation Approach to Regulating AI,” which makes a concerted effort to distinguish its approach from the EU’s. “We will ask that regulators focus on high risk concerns rather than hypothetical or low risks associated with AI,” the report noted. “We want to encourage innovation and avoid placing unnecessary barriers in its way.” This is consistent with what the UK government has been saying on technology governance more generally. For example, in recent report advocating for Innovation Friendly Regulation, the UK government’s Regulatory Horizons Council argued that, when it comes to the regulation of emerging technologies like AI, “it is also necessary to consider the risk that the intervention itself poses.” “This would include the potential impact on benefits from a particular innovation that might be foregone; it would also include the potential creation of a ‘chilling effect’ on innovation more generally,” the Council concluded. Clearly, this approach to technology policy stands in stark contrast to the EU’s heavy-handed model. So, there is a chance that at least some innovators based in the UK can escape the EU’s regulatory hell.

What about AI innovators stuck on the European continent? What are they saying about the regulations they will soon face? The European DIGITAL SME Alliance, which is the largest network of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the European ICT sector, represents roughly 45,000 digital SMEs. In comments to the EC about the impact of the law, the Alliance highlighted how costly the AI Act’s conformity assessments and other regulations will be for smaller innovators. “This may put a burden on AI innovation” the Alliance argued, because smaller developers have limited financial and human resources of SMEs.” “[A] regulation that requires SMEs to make these significant investments, will likely push SMEs out of the market,” the group noted. “This is exactly the opposite of the intention to support a thriving and innovative AI ecosystem in Europe.” Moreover, “SMEs will not be able to pass on these costs to their customers in the final customer end pricing,” the Alliance correctly noted because, “[t[he market is global and highly competitive. Therefore, customers will choose cheaper solutions and Europe risks to be left behind in technology development and global competition.”

In March, the Alliance also hosted a forum on “The European AI Act and Digital SMEs,” which featured comments from some operators in this space. Some speakers were quite timid and you could sense that they might have feared pushing back too aggressively against the European Commission so as not to get on the bad side of regulators before the rules go into effect. But Mislav Malenica, Founder & CEO Mindsmiths didn’t pull any punches in his remarks. His company Mindsmiths is trying to build autonomous support systems in many different fields, but their ability to innovate and compete globally will be severely curtailed by the EU AI Act, he argued.

I usually don’t spend time transcribing people’s comments from events, but I went back and watched Malenica’s multiple times because his remarks are so powerful and I wanted to make sure others hear what he was saying. [Malenica’s opening comments during the event run from 42:29 to 49:34 of the video and then he has more to say during Q&A beginning at the 1:27:28 of the video.] Here’s a quick summary of a few of Malenica’s key points (listed chronologically):

  • “I’m not sure we are doing everything we can do actually to create an environment that’s innovation friendly.”
  • “we see a lot of uncertainty. We see fear.”
  • “basically we won’t be able to get funding here.”
  • while reading through the AI Act, he notes, “I don’t see start-ups being mentioned anywhere, and startups are the main vehicles of innovation.” […] “I find it very arrogant”
  • if AI Act becomes law, “what we’ll do in Europe is we’ll create a new market and that’s the AI markets based on fear,” and in how to just build products that avoid the wrath of government or lawsuits.
  • “we are really stifling innovation” and that means Europeans will have to import autonomous products from foreign companies instead of making them there.

Later, during in the Q&A period, Malenica notes how his first virtual currency startup had to use half it’s investment capital just dealing with regulatory compliance issues, and most venture capitalists wouldn’t get behind launching in Europe because of such legal hassles. He reflects upon what this mean for other innovators going forward as the EU prepares to expand their regulatory regime for AI sectors:

  • “I don’t think we’re missing talent. That’s just a consequence” of all the regulation. “We are missing a sense that you have opportunities here. If you the opportunities here, then the talent will come, the funding will come, and so on because people see that they’ll be able to make money, they’ll be able to build companies, and so on.”
  • “If we now take a look at the 10 biggest companies market capitalizations in the world, we’ll see that none of them comes actually from Europe” with U.S. tech companies dominating the list. “So, we missed that wave completely.” Why? “Because we didn’t inspire anyone to take action,” and that is about to happen for AI.
  • “We need to decide if we are going to be a land of opportunities, or will we be just consumers of other people’s tech, the same we are right now” for digital software and services.
  • “We’re already finding excuses for the loss” of the AI market, he argues.

Malenica’s comments are extraordinarily demoralizing if you care about innovation. Now, I’m an American and one way to look at this dismal situation is that, by hobbling its own startups and existing AI innovators, Europe is doing the U.S. another favor by essentially taking itself out of the running in next great global tech race. Europe’s actions may also mean that America gains many of their best and brightest if they come to the U.S. when looking to create the next great algorithmic service or application because they can’t do so in the EU. This is exactly what happened over the past few decades for Internet startups, Malenica noted.

But that’s dismal news in another sense. Europe is filled with brilliant innovators, highly-skilled talent, world-class educational institutions, and even many venture capitalists looking to invest in this arena. Unfortunately, the continent’s suffocating regulatory approach makes it nearly impossible for digital technology innovators to have a fighting chance. Through their heavy-handed policies, European officials have essentially declared their innovators “guilty until proven innocent.” And that means that Europeans and the rest of the world are being deprived of many important life-enriching and life-saving AI applications that those innovators could create. Technological innovation is not a zero-sum game that only one country can “win.” Innovation drives growth and prosperity and lifts all boats as its benefits spread throughout the world. When European innovators prosper, people all over the world prosper along with them.

Is there any chance the European Commission softens its stance toward emerging technologies and looks to adopt a more flexible governance approach that instead treats AI innovators as innocent until proven guilty? I think it is extremely unlikely that will happen because, as Malenica noted, European technology policy is too rooted in fear of disruption and extreme risk-aversion. EU officials are forgetting that the most important lesson from the history of technological innovation is there can be no progress without some risk-taking and corresponding disruption. My favorite quote about the relationship between risk-taking and human progress comes from Wilbur Wright who, along with his brother, helped pioneer human flight. “If you are looking for perfect safety,” Wright said, “you would do well to sit on a fence and watch the birds.” European policymakers are essentially forcing their best and brightest innovators to sit on the fence and watch the rest of the world fly right past them on the digital technology and AI front. The ramifications for the continent will be disastrous. Regardless, as I noted in concluding my recent Hill column, Europe’s approach to AI “shouldn’t be the model the U.S. follows if it hopes to maintain its early lead in AI and robotics. America should instead welcome European companies, workers and investors looking for a more hospitable place to launch bold new AI innovations.”

Alas, European officials appear ready to ignore the deleterious impact of their policies on innovation and competition and instead make regulation their leading export to the world. In fact, the European Commission will soon open a San Francisco office to work more closely with Silicon Valley companies affected by EU tech regulation. European leaders have basically surrendered on the idea of home-grown innovation and are now plowing all their energies into regulating the rest of the world’s largest digital technology companies, most of which are headquartered in the United States. It’s no wonder, then, that The Economist magazine concludes that, “Europe is the free-rider continent” that “has piggybacked on innovation from elsewhere, keeping up with rivals, not forging ahead.” Instead, “the cuddly form of capitalism embraced in Europe has markedly failed to create world-beating companies,” the magazine argues.

European officials want us to believe that they are somehow doing the world a favor by being its global tech regulator, when instead the are simply solidifying the power of the largest digital tech companies, who are the only ones with enough resources–mainly in the form of massive legal compliance teams–to live under the EU’s innovation-crushing regulations. Sadly, many US policymakers hate our own home-grown tech companies so much now, that they are willing to let this happen. In a better world, those American lawmakers would stand up to European officials looking to bully tech innovators and we would reject the innovation-killing recipe that the EU is cooking up for AI markets and expects the rest of the world to eat.

Additional Reading on AI & Robotics:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/08/01/why-the-future-of-ai-will-not-be-invented-in-europe/feed/ 3 77016 Running List of My Research on AI, ML & Robotics Policy https://techliberation.com/2022/07/29/running-list-of-my-research-on-ai-ml-robotics-policy/ https://techliberation.com/2022/07/29/running-list-of-my-research-on-ai-ml-robotics-policy/#respond Fri, 29 Jul 2022 12:51:54 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=77020

[last updated 4/3/2025 – Check my Medium page for latest posts]

This a running list of all the essays and reports I’ve already rolled out on the governance of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and robotics. Why have I decided to spend so much time on this issue? Because this will become the most important technological revolution of our lifetimes. Every segment of the economy will be touched in some fashion by AI, ML, robotics, and the power of computational science. It should be equally clear that public policy will be radically transformed along the way.

Eventually, all policy will involve AI policy and computational considerations. As AI “eats the world,” it eats the world of public policy along with it. The stakes here are profound for individuals, economies, and nations. As a result, AI policy will be the most important technology policy fight of the next decade, and perhaps next quarter century. Those who are passionate about the freedom to innovate need to prepare to meet the challenge as proposals to regulate AI proliferate.

There are many socio-technical concerns surrounding algorithmic systems that deserve serious consideration and appropriate governance steps to ensure that these systems are beneficial to society. However, there is an equally compelling public interest in ensuring that AI innovations are developed and made widely available to help improve human well-being across many dimensions. And that’s the case that I’ll be dedicating my life to making in coming years.

Here’s the list of what I’ve done so far. I will continue to update this as new material is released:

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021 (and earlier)

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/07/29/running-list-of-my-research-on-ai-ml-robotics-policy/feed/ 0 77020 Podcast: What’s Wrong with Industrial Policy? https://techliberation.com/2022/02/18/podcast-whats-wrong-with-industrial-policy/ https://techliberation.com/2022/02/18/podcast-whats-wrong-with-industrial-policy/#comments Fri, 18 Feb 2022 15:54:29 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76954

I recently joined Rep. Dan Crenshaw on his Hold These Truths podcast to discuss, “What’s Wrong with Industrial Policy.” We chatted for 25 minutes about a wide range of issues related to the the growing push for grandiose industrial policy schemes in the US, including the massive new 3,000-page, $350 billion “COMPETES Act” legislation that recently passed in the House and which will soon be conferenced with a Senate bill that already passed.

On the same day this podcast was released this week, I also had a new op-ed appear in  The Hill on “The Coming Industrial Policy Hangover.” In both that essay and the podcast with Rep. Crenshaw, I stress that, beyond all the other problems with these new industrial policy measures, no one is talking about the fiscal cost of it all. As I note:

In the rush to pass legislation, we’ve barely heard a peep about the $250-$350 billion price tag. This follows a massive splurge of recent government borrowing, which led to the U.S. national debt hitting another lamentable new record: $30 trillion. China already owns over $1 trillion of that debt, making one wonder if we’re really countering China by adopting a massive, new and unfunded industrial policy that they will end up financing indirectly.

Read my oped for more details and for a deeper dive of what’s wrong with the bills, see my earlier essay here on “Thoughts on the America COMPETES Act: The Most Corporatist & Wasteful Industrial Policy Ever.”

Additional Reading from Adam Thierer on Industrial Policy:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/02/18/podcast-whats-wrong-with-industrial-policy/feed/ 1 76954 Thoughts on the America COMPETES Act: The Most Corporatist & Wasteful Industrial Policy Ever https://techliberation.com/2022/01/26/thoughts-on-the-competes-act-the-most-corporatist-wasteful-industrial-policy-ever/ https://techliberation.com/2022/01/26/thoughts-on-the-competes-act-the-most-corporatist-wasteful-industrial-policy-ever/#comments Wed, 26 Jan 2022 19:37:24 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76942

On Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, posted the text of the “America Creating Opportunities for Manufacturing, Pre-Eminence in Technology and Economic Strength Act of 2022,” or “The America COMPETES Act.” As far as industrial policy measures go, the COMPETES Act is one of the most ambitious and expensive central planning efforts in American history. It represents the triumph of top-down, corporatist, techno-mercantilist thinking over a more sensible innovation policy rooted in bottom-up competition, entrepreneurialism, private investment, and free trade.

Unprecedented Planning & Spending

First, the ugly facts: The full text of the COMPETES Act weighs in at a staggering 2,912 pages. A section-by-section “summary” of the measure takes up 109 pages alone. Even the shorter “fact sheet” for the bill is 20 pages long. It is impossible to believe that anyone in Congress has read every provision of this bill. It will be another case of having “to pass the bill so you can find out what’s in it,” as Speaker Pelosi once famously said about another mega-measure.

Of course, a mega bill presents major opportunities for lawmakers to sneak in endless gobs of pork and unrelated policy measures they can’t find any other way to get through Congress. The Senate already passed a similar 2,600-page companion measure last summer, “The U.S. Innovation and Competition Act.” Lawmakers loaded up that measure with so much pork and favors for special interests that Sen. John N. Kennedy (R-La.) labelled the effort an “orgy of spending porn.” Like that effort, the new COMPETES Act includes $52 billion to boost domestic semiconductor production as well as $45 billion in grants and loans to address supply chain issues.

But there are billions allocated for other initiatives, as well as countless provisions addressing other technologies and sectors. The list is seemingly endless and includes: 5G mobile networks, biometrics, quantum information science, “the development of safe and trustworthy artificial intelligence and data science,” cybersecurity literacy, drone security, microelectronics, electronic waste, genomics, isotope development, and the Large Hadron Collider and high intensity lasers, among many other things. The measure also proposes a broad array of Green New Deal-esque efforts focused on things like: biometrology, climate and Earth modeling, deforestation and overfishing / “driftnet” fishing matters, marine mammal research, solar energy, bioenergy, the creation of a National Engineering Biology Research and Development Initiative and a Regional Clean Energy Innovation Program at the Department of Energy, clean water programs, a national clean energy incubator program, and helium conservation, again among many other things. There are even provisions addressing the trading of shark fins and almost 70 pages of provisions on coral reef conservation.

A Sweeping Macroeconomic Planning Exercise

There are more sweeping macroeconomic provisions and mandates in the bill. For example, the COMPETES Act would create a new “national supply chain database,” as well as a Supply Chain Resiliency and Crisis Response Office in the Department of Commerce, while also requiring the Director of White House Office of Science & Technology Policy to develop and submit to Congress a 4-year comprehensive national S&T strategy. The measure also includes trade adjustment assistance for workers, firms, and farmers and even provisions dealing with currency undervaluation. There are also many provisions addressing drug manufacturing and medical supply chain issues. There are even proposed expansions of federal antitrust power. (Apparently, once America’s grandiose industrial policies magically create global powerhouses in every sector, we’ll need expanding antitrust action to tear them all down and start all over again! Meanwhile, perhaps the greatest irony of the new industrial policy efforts is that, while lawmakers are falling all over themselves to shower corporate America with hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars, policymakers are simultaneously on a regulatory and antitrust jihad against many successful tech companies with bills that would break them up or destroy their business models.)

Perhaps most radically, the measure includes a 25-page section proposing a sweeping new “National Critical Capabilities Review” process to oversee outbound investments. Covington lawyers noted that, if such a regulatory regime is enacted, “the United States would become the first major Western advanced economy to adopt a broad-gauged outbound investment screening process, raising the prospect of a new era in national security-based reviews and restrictions of international investment flows.”

Finally, the COMPETES Act includes a huge assortment of other national security and foreign policy-related provisions, most of which focus on countering China in some fashion. “There’s a lot of Cold War-style influence mongering happening here,” says Reason’s Elizabeth Nolan Brown, including programs that sound like they could have been concocted by the CIA, such as the bill’s “Countering China’s Educational and Cultural Diplomacy in Latin America” initiative. But there is also a lot of language here addressing other regions or countries, including: Oceania, Africa, the Arctic, the Middle East, Iran, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and others.

The relationship of most of these provisions to U.S. industrial competitiveness is tenuous to say the least. Nonetheless, those provisions take up a huge amount of space in this nearly 3,000-page industrial policy measure and may end up complicating its passage.

A Chicken in Every Pot

The inclusion of “Regional Technology and Innovation Hubs” in the bill deserves special attention. The Act proposes $7 billion over four years to fund 10 different innovation hubs and it includes many provisions about how and where money will be spent. It’s hard to see how spreading $7 billion across 10 hubs is actually going to result in much once every special interest gets their cut of the action, but proposals like these are all the rage these days. It’s the equivalent of policymakers promising a high-tech chicken in every pot, or a Silicon Valley in every state.

In a two-part series for Discourse, I documented the problems associated with the many previous government efforts to create innovation hubs, tech clusters, or science parks. The government’s  track record in this regard is long and lamentable. Instead of following a time-tested approach getting the broad innovation policy environment right through a “generalized” approach to economic growth and development, most policymakers took unwise shortcuts and tried using “targeted” development schemes that were incredibly risky and ended up squandering a huge amount of taxpayer resources.

But all those failed past efforts probably won’t stop this high-tech pork barrel effort from rolling forward in some fashion. The proposed new regional hub effort comes on top of an announcement last July by the Commerce Department that the agency plans to allocate $1 billion in pandemic recovery funds to create or expand “regional industry clusters” as part of the administration’s new “Build Back Better Regional Challenge.” The agency’s list of possible winning funding ideas includes an “artificial intelligence corridor” and a “climate-friendly electric vehicle cluster.” And there are many other federal and state programs throwing money at the idea of hub or “cluster” formation, or even just highly cronyist efforts to attract a single big tech firm. (Anyone remember the Foxconn fiasco in Wisconsin?)

As Matt Mitchell and I have noted, this growing trend represents the collision of federal industrial policy and long-standing state-based economic development efforts. Regardless of how well-intentioned they may be, it is highly unlikely these new tech pork barrel efforts will produce better results than the long string of earlier federal and state failures.

Secondary Effects & Unforeseeable Costs

A bill this big presents many other big opportunities for corporations and other special interests. It’s no wonder that many companies, trade associations, and other special interests are lining up to support this effort. In a recent study co-authored with Connor Haaland (“Does the US Need a More Targeted Industrial Policy for AI & High-Tech”), we outlined “the way rent-seeking and cronyism often become chronic problems for highly targeted, big-budget industrial policy efforts.” Those problems will grow exponentially if the COMPETES Act passes. Everyone expects a cut of the action when Washington starts showering sectors with money.

But there’s a bigger problem associated with the everything-and-the-kitchen-sink approach to such a massive industrial policy bill.  All the ambiguities associated with a monster measure like this means that agency bureaucrats will be left to fill in all the details for many years to come. It is folly of the highest order to believe that all these agencies will work together in a tightly coordinated and consistent way to advance industrial policy efforts or address “strategic objectives.” Anyone currently following the fight between the FAA and FCC over the rollout of 5G wireless networks will know what I am talking about. Moreover, delegating broad authority and big money to all these agencies just further reinforces the rent-seeking instincts of special interests, who will rush to their respective regulatory masters with hat in hand. This presents agencies with an added policy lever to blackmail companies into doing what they want without any new regulations even being issued.

And then there is the final consideration: where will all the money come from for this grand exercise in technocratic central planning? The Senate bill costs an estimated $250 billion. To be clear, that’s A QUARTER TRILLION DOLLARS. We’re talking big money, and chances are that the final price tag for the House’s COMPETES Act will be even higher. Does the money to fund all this profligate spending just fall like manna from industrial policy heaven? No, it will come out the pockets of the American taxpayer and American companies (who will just pass the bill along to consumers). This will have dynamic effects on growth and innovation that are almost never discussed in industrial policy debates. Here’s how Connor Haaland and I put it in our big study:

“First, a dollar spent pursuing one objective is a dollar that could have been invested differently, and potential better. Second, the very act of imposing taxes to cover these state gambits results in costs and distortions that must be accounted for. Some of these costs are deadweight losses associated with taxes and tax collection more generally. But this points to a third lesson: The true potential costs associated with industrial policy programs also need to account for the negative secondary effects of rent-seeking, bureaucracy, and the many other downsides of the political system, included cost overruns and corruption.”

As the old saying goes: There is no free lunch.

Conclusion: There Is a Better Way

Some advocates of the COMPETES Act label it a “competitiveness bill” or an “innovation initiative.” It takes a great deal of hubris to pretend that that the economy is just a giant machine to be manipulated and that policymakers can easily “dial in” the desired innovation results through massive bills and expanded bureaucracy.

Lawmakers and bureaucrats are not going to allocate capital more efficiently than private innovators and investors. Nor are they going to be able to “shore up supply chains” or create tech hubs in every city just by sprinkling a little magical industrial policy pixie dust thinly across the entire nation.

We should not try to compete with China by becoming China. Nor do we need to. Markets and supply chains recover from setbacks faster than governments can. This week, the White House reiterated its support for industrial policy efforts to strengthen supply chains and extend subsidies to the semiconductors industry. But, assuming the COMPETES Act passes, it’ll take years to get all the planning and spending going. When government spins those proverbial dials, it does so very slowly and extremely inefficiently. Meanwhile, the same day the White House was making these announcements, it was also touting that $80 billion in private investment has been announced by the US semiconductor industry recently. Just last week, Intel announced it plans to invest at least $20 billion in two new chip-making facilities in Ohio. Scott Lincicome and Ilana Blumsack have documented the many other private initiatives underway by the semiconductor industry to expand domestic manufacturing capacity, as well as efforts by foreign firms like Samsung to invest here to take advantage of our skilled workforce and vibrant capital market. This is all happening despite the fact that Congress is still debating an industrial policy measure that may end up being too bloated to even achieve successful passage this session.

Does government have any role to play? It certainly does. Most current industrial policy proposals fail to understand that the most important thing that policymakers can do is to clean up decades of earlier failed industrial policy efforts. Industrial policies in fields like energy, aviation, space, communications and other sectors skewed markets in unnatural and inefficient ways by favoring specific technologies and companies over others. This is because industrial policy all too often devolves into the business of picking winners and losers. This is not always done in a formal way or even with clear intent. Rather, when government is throwing around billions and engaging in casino economics by placing big bets, a lucky few will win at the expense of others.

Of course, not all government support is as wasteful or corporatist in character. “Basic” R&D efforts are certainly more defensible than most “applied” or “targeted” efforts. “When government is supporting basic R&D,” Connor Haaland and I have noted, “the chances of wasting scarce resources on risky investments can be minimized to some degree, at least as compared with highly targeted applied R&D investments in unproven technologies and firms.”

And then there are all of the education and training efforts governments can undertake. If lawmakers were smart, they would have just limited their efforts to the sort of things found in Titles III, V, and VI of the COMPETES Act, which relates to boosting STEM education, high-tech workforce training, improving National Science Foundation research efforts, and funding various other federal science agencies and labs, that conduct more basic research. And more flexible immigration policies are also essential.

Meanwhile, government defense spending isn’t going to dry up anytime soon and it continues to represent an indirect form of industrial policy given the trillions of dollars that are spread around through the so-called “military-industrial complex.” That certainly doesn’t mean America should be greatly expanding its already bloated defense budgets in the name of expanding industrial policy. Yet, for better or worse, government is always going to be spending a lot of money on defense priorities and it gives it a chance to address whatever “strategic” needs it has.

But the current industrial policy behemoth advancing in Congress represents a misguided effort at domestic retrenchment and a collapse into a lamentable sort of techno-mercantilism thinking that happens every quarter century or so. In my paper with Haaland as well as a separate essay, I have documented just how misguided the “Japan panic” of the 1980s and 90s was. One policymaker and pundit after another lined up to breathlessly proclaim the end of America if we failed to adopt a grandiose industrial policy to counter Japan. Of course, that industrial policy approach ended up being such a disaster that even the Japanese government itself declared in a 2000 report that “the Japanese model was not the source of Japanese competitiveness but the cause of our failure.”

Moreover, it is worth noting what happened with the Internet and digital technology in the U.S. versus the rest of the world in the 1990s and beyond. America essentially put a policy firewall between the emerging digital technology sector and the old industrial policy regime we had for analog sectors and technologies, like broadcasting and wireline telephony. And thank God we did! America’s digital technology sector thrived, and U.S.-headquartered tech companies became household names across the globe. Meanwhile, the Europeans have spent 20 years crafting one misguided industrial policy scheme after another to equal America’s accomplishments. Despite highly targeted and expensive efforts to foster a domestic digital tech base, the EU has instead generated a string of industrial policy failures that Haaland and I documented in detail here.

Corporatism, cronyism, and profligate pork-barrel spending were not the sources of America’s competitive advantage in digital technology, and top-down planning did not make our digital technology companies global powerhouses.  Instead, we got our innovation culture right for digital technology. First and foremost, our the default regulatory policy for the digital economy was permissionless innovation. No one had to ask anyone for the right to develop all those new digital technologies and online platforms. The Clinton Administration’s 1997 “Framework for Global Electronic Commerce” announced that “governments should encourage industry self-regulation and private sector leadership where possible” and “avoid undue restrictions on electronic commerce.” Second, investors saw that positive policy ecosystem developing and moved quickly to shower entrepreneurs in this sector with unprecedented private venture capital investment. Third, education and career opportunities in these sectors expanded accordingly. Real-time “learning by doing” took place as millions of people learned new digital skillsets on the fly. Kids learned how to code before anyone could even teach them how to type. Most importantly, talented immigrants and foreign investors then came here to take advantage of all this, allowing America to steal away the best and brightest from the rest of the world.

This constitutes one of the greatest capitalist success stories in human history, and it all happened without targeted, technocratic, top-down industrial policy planning. This is the more principled and less costly vision for innovation policy America needs today to counter China and the rest of the world. There is absolutely no reason that we can’t apply this same vision to aviation, space, semiconductors, energy, nanotech, AI, and many other sectors of importance.

Additional Reading from Adam Thierer on Industrial Policy:

Other critical essays on industrial policy:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2022/01/26/thoughts-on-the-competes-act-the-most-corporatist-wasteful-industrial-policy-ever/feed/ 2 76942 New Mercatus Center Report on Industrial Policy https://techliberation.com/2021/11/17/new-mercatus-center-report-on-industrial-policy/ https://techliberation.com/2021/11/17/new-mercatus-center-report-on-industrial-policy/#comments Wed, 17 Nov 2021 21:21:29 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76921

The Mercatus Center has just released a new special study that I co-authored with Connor Haaland entitled, “Does the United States Need a More Targeted Industrial Policy for High Tech?” With industrial policy reemerging as a major issue — and with Congress still debating a $250 billion, 2,400-page industrial policy bill — our report does a deep dive into the history various industrial policy efforts both here and abroad over the past half century. Our 64-page survey of the historical record leads us to conclude that, “targeted industrial policy programs cannot magically bring about innovation or economic growth, and government efforts to plan economies from the top down have never had an encouraging track record.”

We zero in on the distinction between general versus targeted economic development efforts and argue that:

whether we are referring to federal, state, or local planning efforts—the more highly tar­geted development efforts typically involve many tradeoffs that are often not taken into consider­ation by industrial policy advocates. Downsides include government steering of public resources into unproductive endeavors, as well as more serious problems, such as cronyism and even corruption.

We also stress the need to more tightly define the term “industrial policy” to ensure rational evaluation is even possible. We argue that, “industrial policy has intentionality and directionality, which distinguishes it from science policy, innovation policy, and economic policy more generally.” We like the focus definition used by economist Nathaniel Lane, who defines industrial policy as “intentional political action meant to shift the industrial structure of an economy.”

Our report examines the so-called “Japan model” of industrial policy that was all the rage in intellectual circles a generation ago and then compares it to the Chinese and European industrial policy efforts of today, which many pundits claim that the US needs to mimic. We find problems with those models and argue that:

America’s goal should not be to “imitate China” or “copy its playbook” when it comes to targeted industrial policy and technological governance of AI and other high-tech sectors. Europe’s approach, although not as heavy-handed, is also not a good model. Not only would the Chinese and European approaches potentially undermine the permissionless innovation ethos that made America’s tech companies become global powerhouses, but expanded industrial policy efforts would entail massive state bets on risky ventures using taxpayer resources.

We discuss the public choice dynamics surrounding many industrial development efforts and note that, “what is often described as “industrial policy” is in reality nothing more than industrial politics.” We highlight how many of the largest industrial policy programs have been prone to highly inefficient contracting procedures and massive cost overruns. Sometimes outright corruption even becomes a problem with some of the largest programs. But that’s not the only cost. Sometimes, in their effort to promote specific industrial outputs or outcomes, government undermines the very innovation they hope to spur.

When governments repress the entrepreneurial spirit of their most innovative creators and companies, this is bound to have negative ramifications for long-term competitiveness and economic growth. Heavy-handed industrial policy schemes can contribute to this sort of repression as the state gains more levers of control over private companies.

We note how that has certainly been the case in the European Union, where “countries have adopted a highly precautionary regulatory model for new digital sectors that shuns risk-taking and focuses on maximizing other values at the expense of disruptive change. This approach has resulted in fewer national champions, and it has cost Europe in terms of global competitive advantage,” we note. We also highlight the long string of failed European industrial policy programs.

Ours is not a doctrinaire analysis; we take a pragmatic approach to the evaluation of industrial policy programs and proposals. Some of them may succeed based simply on the reality that “if government officials roll the proverbial industrial policy dice enough times, some bets are bound to pay off, at least indirectly.” But any serious analysis of these efforts, we argue, must fully weigh the trade-offs associated with the potential tax and compliance burdens associated with funding them to begin with.

But we admit that, “industrial policy will always be with us to some extent, given the sheer size of government and the many existing programs already devoted to economic development or high-tech initiatives.” Toward that end, we wrap up the paper with a variety of high-level recommendations about industrial policy. We highlight how:

The priority should be generalized economic development over targeted development efforts. The most important thing that policymakers can do to boost economic opportunities is to create a legal and regulatory environment that is conducive to entrepreneurship, investment, innovation, and free trade.  [. . . ] government should focus on setting the table for entrepreneurial activity instead of trying to determine everything on the plate. To put this differently, policymakers need to avoid the “fun stuff” and focus on “boring” issues that often get neglected.

We apply these insights to the ongoing debate over regional economic development and the specific effort currently underway at the federal level to encourage “regional innovation hubs,” as federal and state lawmakers look to create “the next Silicon Valley” elsewhere.

In terms of our nation’s overall investment in R&D, we note that “[t]he United States has the most vibrant venture capital (VC) market in the world, and this market helps support risky ventures without gambling with taxpayer dollars.” While some bemoan the fact that private enterprise provides the bulk of R&D expenditures in the US – and that amount is increasing relative to governmental sources – this is actually something that should be celebrated. The strength of private-funded R&D helps set the US apart and make investment markets nimbler and more responsive to real-world needs. Moreover, global unicorn growth in the US continues at a healthy clip. From 2010 to mid-2021, the US created 53 percent of global unicorns, compared with 20 percent for China. These facts are often overlook in industrial policy debates.

While our paper is comprehensive, admittedly, there are some things we leave out of the analysis or do not spend as much time discussing. For example, there is a never-ending debate about the relationship between national security and industrial policy that raises many hard questions. A nation needs military hardware to defend itself, and almost every program to provide weapons and military equipment in the US involve private contracting to get them. These are the biggest industrial policy programs at all, but we don’t spend a lot of time focus on them in our paper because that would have taken us far afield.

We have a short section on these issues that notes how “defense-related programs have also been prone to highly inefficient contracting procedures and massive cost overruns.” Many of these programs remain vital, however, and must find a way to make them more efficient and cost-effective. But there are still other issues related to national security and industrial policy that raise hard questions, including: export or import controls, trade restrictions, and more. These continue to be challenging issues and I personally hope to revisit some of them in upcoming essays.

With Congress still trying to finalize its mega industrial policy bill, our paper is relevant to the short-term debate over these issues. But our hope is that this paper offers a big-picture, long-term framework for thinking through the challenges associated with industrial policy issues both here and abroad.

Here is the outline of the paper and, again, you can find it at this link. (The report can also be found on SSRN & Research Gate).

  1. Introduction: Definitional Challenges 5
  2. Calls for Expanding Industrial Policy to Boost High-Tech Innovation 8
  3. Some (Quickly Forgotten) Recent History 11
  4. The Romantic View of Industrial Policy vs. Reality 15
  5. The Challenge of Creating “National Champions”: Europe’s Failures 20
  6. Adverse Effects of State-Led Promotion: The China Model Examined 23
  7. Where Does Real Competitive Advantage Come From? 27
  8. Industrial Policy Did Not Give Us the Internet and the iPhone 33
  9. Evaluating Other Industrial Policy Efforts 39
  10. Using Competitions and Prizes to Encourage Innovation More Efficiently 46
  11. Conclusion: Generality Is Better Than Targeting

Additional Reading:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2021/11/17/new-mercatus-center-report-on-industrial-policy/feed/ 1 76921 Keeping Uncle Sam out of the Industrial Policy Casino https://techliberation.com/2021/07/16/keeping-uncle-sam-out-of-the-industrial-policy-casino/ https://techliberation.com/2021/07/16/keeping-uncle-sam-out-of-the-industrial-policy-casino/#comments Fri, 16 Jul 2021 19:01:32 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76898

Financial Help for Gamblers: How to Get Find ReliefIn my latest column for The Hill, I consider that dangers of government gambling our tax dollars on risky industrial policy programs. I begin by noting:

Roll the dice at a casino enough times, and you are bound to win a few games. But knowing the odds are not in your favor, how much are you willing to risk losing by continuing to gamble? This is the same issue governments confront when they gamble taxpayer dollars on industrial policy efforts, which can best be described as targeted and directed efforts to plan for specific future industrial outputs and outcomes. Throwing enough money at risky ventures might net a few wins, but at what cost? Could those resources have been better spent? And do bureaucrats really make better bets than private investors?

I continue on to note that, while the US is embarking on a major new industrial policy push, history does not provide us with a lot of hope regarding Uncle Sam’s betting record when he starts rolling those industrial policy dice. “How much tolerance should the public have for government industrial policy gambling?” I ask. I continue on:

Generally speaking, “basic” support (broad-based funding for universities and research labs) is wiser than “applied” (targeted subsidies for specific firms or sectors). With basic R&D funding, the chances of wasting resources on risky investments can be contained, at least as compared to highly targeted investments in unproven technologies and firms.

I also argue that “The riskiest bets on new technologies and sectors are better left to private investors,” and note how, “America’s venture capital industry remains the envy of the world because it continues to power world-beating advanced technology.” Accordingly, I conclude:

While some government investments will always be necessary, policymakers engaging in casino economics means bad industrial policy bets and taxpayer money squandered on risky ventures best made by private actors. We need to keep Uncle Sam’s gambling habits in check.

Read the whole thing here. And here’s a list of more of my recent writing on industrial policy:

]]> https://techliberation.com/2021/07/16/keeping-uncle-sam-out-of-the-industrial-policy-casino/feed/ 2 76898 Remembering the ‘Japan Inc.’ Industrial Policy Scare of the 1980s & 1990s https://techliberation.com/2021/06/29/remembering-the-japan-inc-industrial-policy-scare-of-the-1980s-1990s/ https://techliberation.com/2021/06/29/remembering-the-japan-inc-industrial-policy-scare-of-the-1980s-1990s/#respond Tue, 29 Jun 2021 16:12:22 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76892

Discourse magazine has just published my latest essay, “‘Japan Inc.’ and Other Tales of Industrial Policy Apocalypse.” It is a short history of the hysteria surrounding the growth of Japan in the 1980s and early 1990s and its various industrial policy efforts. I begin by noting that, “American pundits and policymakers are today raising a litany of complaints about Chinese industrial policies, trade practices, industrial espionage and military expansion. Some of these concerns have merit. In each case, however, it is easy to find identical fears that were raised about Japan a generation ago.” I then walk through many of the leading books, opeds, movies, and other things from that past era to show how that was the case.

“Hysteria” is not too strong a word to use in this case. Many pundits and politicians were panicking about the rise of Japan economically and more specifically about the way Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) was formulating industrial policy schemes for industrial sectors in which they hoped to make advances. This resulted in veritable “MITI mania” here in America. “U.S. officials and market analysts came to view MITI with a combination of reverence and revulsion, believing that it had concocted an industrial policy cocktail that was fueling Japan’s success at the expense of American companies and interests,” I note. Countless books and essays were being published with breathless titles and predictions. I go through dozens of them in my essay. Meanwhile, the debate in policy circles and Capitol Hill even took on an ugly racial tinge, with some lawmakers calling the the Japanese “leeches.” and suggesting the U.S. should have dropped more atomic bombs on Japan during World War II. At one point, several members of Congress gathered on the lawn of the U.S. Capitol in 1987 to smash Japanese electronics with sledgehammers.

All this hysteria about Japan and MITI bore little semblance to reality. In fact, as I note in the essay, the MITI industrial planning model fell apart after it made a host of horrible bad bets and the stock market tanked in the late 1980s. Corruption also became a huge problem within many state-led efforts. A 2000 report by the Policy Research Institute within Japan’s Ministry of Finance concluded that “the Japanese model was not the source of Japanese competitiveness but the cause of our failure.” MITI was renamed the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry at about the same time, and its mission shifted more toward market-oriented reforms.

Industrial policy came to be viewed as a bit of a joke in America after that, but now it is back with a vengeance, thanks largely to the rise of Chinese economic power. Thus, because “we hear echoes from the Japan Inc. era debates in today’s policy discussions about China and industrial policy planning,” I end my essay with some lessons from the ‘Japan Inc.’ era for today’s industrial policy debates:

This similarity demonstrates the first lesson we can learn from the previous era: It is important to separate serious geopolitical and economic analysis from breathless fear-mongering and borderline xenophobia. The former has a serious place in policy discussions; the latter needs to be called out and shunned. After all, there are many legitimate worries about rising Chinese power, particularly when it involves Chinese Communist Party efforts to squash human rights domestically or to engage in industrial espionage, trade mercantilism and military adventurism abroad. Separating serious matters from trivial or imaginary ones is crucial, especially to help keep peace between nations. Avoiding hysteria is especially pertinent today with a wave of anti-Asian sentiment and attacks on the rise in the U.S. A second lesson from the Japan Inc. experience relates to today’s renewed interest in industrial policy: Forecasting the future of nations and economies—and trying to plan for it—is a tricky business. A huge range of variables affects global competitiveness and technological advancement. A nonexhaustive list of some of the most important factors would include legal and political stability, physical and intellectual property rights, tax burdens, competition policy, trade and investment laws, monetary policy, research and development efforts, and even demographic factors and access to certain natural resources. Understanding how these and other factors all work together is an inexact science. When targeted industrial policy mechanisms are added to the mix, it becomes even harder to untangle which variables are making the most difference. Both in the past and today, a less visible group of scholars has suggested that an embrace of entrepreneurialism and free trade was the fundamental factor driving Japanese economic expansion in the past and China’s amazing growth today. Openness to markets, they say, drove the enormous economic expansions—which also happened during times of much-needed catch-up modernization in both countries. But these perspectives have usually been shouted out of the room by louder voices, who either bombastically blast or praise industrial policy mechanisms as the prime mover in the economic rejuvenation of both nations. We need to tamp down on the magical thinking that governments can easily achieve technological innovation and economic growth by simply spinning a few industrial policy gauges. A few big bets may pay off, but that doesn’t justify governments engaging in casino economics regularly. History more often shows that grandiose industrial policy schemes simply result in cost overruns, cronyism and even corruption.

I also conclude by noting that:

Perhaps the most ironic indictment of industrial policy punditry lies in the way all the earlier books and essays about Japanese planning not only failed to forecast the many flops associated with it, but also did not foresee China as a potential future economic juggernaut. Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were mentioned as potential Asian challengers, but no one gave China much consideration. What might that tell us about the ability of experts to predict the future course of countries and economies? It is a reminder of the wisdom of another great Yogi Berra quote: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

You can read the entire piece, as well as several others listed below, over at Discourse.

Recent writing on industrial policy:
]]> https://techliberation.com/2021/06/29/remembering-the-japan-inc-industrial-policy-scare-of-the-1980s-1990s/feed/ 0 76892 Skeptical Takes on Expansive Industrial Policy Efforts https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/skeptical-takes-on-expansive-industrial-policy-efforts/ https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/skeptical-takes-on-expansive-industrial-policy-efforts/#comments Mon, 15 Mar 2021 17:09:11 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76845

[Last updated 3/25/22]

Industrial Policy is a red-hot topic once again with many policymakers and pundits of different ideological leanings lining up to support ambitious new state planning for various sectors — especially 5G, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors. A remarkably bipartisan array of people and organizations are advocating for government to flex its muscle and begin directing more spending and decision-making in various technological areas. They all suggest some sort of big plan is needed, and it is not uncommon for these industrial policy advocates to suggest that hundreds of billions will need to be spent in pursuit of those plans.

Others disagree, however, and I’ll be using this post to catalog some of their concerns on an ongoing basis. Some of the criticisms listed here are portions of longer essays, many of which highlight other types of steps that governments can take to spur innovative activities. Industrial policy is an amorphous term with many definitions of a broad spectrum of possible proposals. Almost everyone believes in  some form of industrial policy if you define the term broadly enough. But, as I argued in a September 2020 essay “On Defining ‘Industrial Policy‘,” I believe it is important to narrow the focus of the term such that we can continue to use the term in a rational way. Toward that end, I believe a proper understanding of industrial policy refers to targeted and directed efforts to plan for specific future industrial outputs and outcomes.

The collection of essays below is merely an attempt to highlight some of the general concerns about the most ambitious calls for expansive industrial policy, many of which harken back to debates I was covering in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when I first started a career in policy analysis. During that time, Japan and South Korea were the primary countries of concern cited by industrial policy advocates. Today, it is China’s growing economic standing that is fueling calls for ambitious state-led targeted investments in “strategic” sectors and technologies. To a lesser extent, grandiose European industrial policy proposals are also prompting new US counter-proposals.

All this activity is what has given rise to many of the critiques listed below. If you have suggestions for other essays I might add to this list, please feel free to pass them along. FYI: There’s no particular order here.

Scott Lincicome and Huan Zhu, “Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary,” Cato Institute Working Paper, June 16, 2021.

[I]ndustrial policy – properly defined – has an extensive and underwhelming history in the United States, featuring high costs (seen and unseen), failed objectives, and political manipulation. Surely, not every U.S. industrial policy effort has ended in disaster, but facts here and abroad argue strongly against new government efforts to boost “critical” industries and workers and thereby fix alleged market failures. Such efforts warrant intense skepticism – skepticism that today is unfortunately in short supply.

Adam Thierer, “Industrial Policy as Casino Economics,” The Hill, July 12, 2021.

While some government investments will always be necessary, policymakers engaging in casino economics means bad industrial policy bets and taxpayer money squandered on risky ventures best made by private actors. We need to keep Uncle Sam’s gambling habits in check.

Adam Thierer, “Thoughts on the America COMPETES Act: The Most Corporatist & Wasteful Industrial Policy Ever,” Technology Liberation Front, January 26, 2022.

As far as industrial policy measures go, the COMPETES Act is one of the most ambitious and expensive central planning efforts in American history. It represents the triumph of top-down, corporatist, techno-mercantilist thinking over a more sensible innovation policy rooted in bottom-up competition, entrepreneurialism, private investment, and free trade.

Adam Thierer & Connor Haaland, “Does the US Need a More Targeted Industrial Policy for AI & High-Tech?” Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Special Study, November 2021.

This paper considers how both the recent history of high-tech industrial policy efforts at the national and international level—as well as some state and local economic development efforts in the United States—might better inform the wisdom of proposed efforts for AI or other high-tech sectors. That history is spotted with some limited successes alongside a long string of costly failures. We explore the reasons for those failures and recommend that the US refocus on the policy prerequisites that helped give rise to the computing and internet revolutions: a more generalized approach to economic development rooted in light-touch regulation and taxation of emerging technology.

Samuel Gregg, “Can America Build A Broad-Based Economy?”  Law & Liberty, March 1, 2022

Of course, if a government decides to put enough money and resources behind a given industrial policy, it will likely produce some results. Yet the same is true of the gambler. If she stays in the casino long enough and spends enough money, she will win a few hands of cards. But the odds are that she will also lose a great deal of money, especially if she is as inept a gambler as the government is maladroit at identifying industry trends or entrepreneurial opportunities. Moreover, just as a compulsive gambler’s behavior will have numerous negative effects on her family’s well-being, so too does industrial policy risk inflicting wider damage upon a nation’s economy and political system. The harms range from gross misallocations of resources to the rampant cronyism and rent-seeking that seems inseparable from industrial policy (which, I again note, its advocates studiously avoid discussing), to name just a few.

Phil Gramm & Mike Solon, “Peace Through Strength Requires Economic Freedom,” Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2022.

The America Competes Act is the House’s effort to outdo the Chinese Communist Party’s latest five-year plan. The 2,900-page bill would make an old Soviet commissar blush.  [. . . ] America’s success in the world economy has never depended on industrial policy or government subsidies. It has come from the relative absence of government planning and subsidies. This is hardly news. The U.S. government provided support for the efforts of Samuel Langley, the greatest aviation expert of the 1890s, in his effort to make America first in powered flight. His manned Aerodrome flopped into the Potomac River. It was the Wright brothers, two unsubsidized but determined bicycle makers from Dayton, Ohio, who flew at Kitty Hawk, N.C., and changed the world.

Scott Lincicome, “Moving Fast and Breaking Things,” Capitolism, February 2, 2022.

Adam Thierer, “The Coming Industrial Policy Hangover,”  The Hill, February 16, 2022.

In the rush to pass legislation, we’ve barely heard a peep about the $250-$350 billion price tag. This follows a massive splurge of recent government borrowing, which led to the U.S. national debt hitting another lamentable new record: $30 trillion. China already owns over $1 trillion of that debt, making one wonder if we’re really countering China by adopting a massive, new and unfunded industrial policy that they will end up financing indirectly.

Podcast: “What’s Wrong with Industrial Policy,” Hold These Truths with Rep. Dan Crenshaw, February 16, 2022.

Tad DeHaven and Adam Thierer, “ The Military-Industrial Complex Offers a Cautionary Tale for Industrial Policy Planning,” Discourse, March 25, 2022.

Wayne Crews, “What To Do Instead Of The America COMPETES Act,” Forbes, February 2, 2022.

All this spending and expansion of the federal government, atop which our leaders would lay the America COMPETES Act and doubtless its own accompanying guidebook, has massive, ignored regulatory effects. Trillions in government spending (”investment”) have altered and will alter the entire trajectory and competitive environment of industries engaged in large-scale enterprises and transactions. This removes vast swaths of business activity from free competitive enterprise altogether, and creates displacements and distortions such that the restoration of free enterprise becomes a near-impossible disentanglement. The result is, after 100 years of big government and seduction of and fusion with big business, the greatest endeavors—from infrastructure to artificial intelligence, from smart cities to space—now consist of “partnerships” with governments rather than free enterprise, at scales and at costs so gigantic they can only be ignored.

Adam Thierer, “‘Japan Inc.’ and Other Tales of Industrial Policy Apocalypse,” Discourse, June 28, 2021.

Perhaps the most ironic indictment of industrial policy punditry lies in the way all the earlier books and essays about Japanese planning not only failed to forecast the many flops associated with it, but also did not foresee China as a potential future economic juggernaut. [. . .] What might that tell us about the ability of experts to predict the future course of countries and economies?

Adam Thierer, “Can Government Reproduce Silicon Valley Everywhere?”  Technology Liberation Front, September 12, 2021.

government efforts to artificially try to create regional innovation hubs in a top-down, technocratic fashion will almost certainly persist. As they do, some will argue that this time will be different! Perhaps, but it is more likely that the past is prologue; these new hubs will likely cause federal politicians to jockey for position to have their regions named one of the winners and get a big cut of all the new high-tech pork being served up by Washington.

Weifeng Zhong, “Beijing Can’t Make Sense of Biden’s China Strategy. Can Biden?” Washington Examiner, July 01, 2021.

America is not China, and it would be a fatal mistake to equate competing with China with imitating what China does. Doing so would risk the advantageous U.S. position as the world’s chief innovator, whose ideas are turned into products by vibrant private sectors both domestically and internationally.

Mike Watson, “Industrial Policy in the Real World,” National Affairs, Summer 2021.

Given the nature of industrial policymaking in the United States, there’s little reason to believe future attempts at industrial planning will result in a more coherent, rational, or strategic allocation of resources than they have in the past. [. . .] In short, industrial policy in the United States cannot be steered by a small group of enlightened individuals, because a small group of enlightened individuals will never be at the helm. Indeed, in some sense, there is no single “helm” to speak of.
 

Samuel Gregg, “Industrial Policy Mythology Confronts Economic Reality,” Law & Liberty, September 3, 2021.

If prizes in policy debates were given out for persistence, those advocating for more widespread use of industrial policy in America would be first in line. No matter how many times it is pointed out that they don’t understand the nature and workings of comparative advantage; or avoid acknowledging how industrial policy fosters rampant cronyism and corruption; or highlight what they consider examples of countries in which industrial policy has been employed successfully (only to have it demonstrated that it didn’t quite work out the way they suggested), they don’t give up.

Elizabeth Nolan Brown, “If This Is How America COMPETES, We’re Going to Lose,” Reason, January 26, 2022.

the bill can’t simply address one main issue or a few critical needs. Instead, it tries to insert the government into every aspect of all sorts of industries and markets and pretend that bureaucrats can solve complex social and cultural issues.

Chang-Tai Hsieh, “Countering Chinese Industrial Policy Is Counterproductive,” Project Syndicate, September 15, 2021.

US political leaders have long tried to counter Chinese industrial policy. And now they seem to have decided that the best way to do that is to emulate it. But their agenda betrays a profound lack of understanding of the unique challenge posed by China’s coupling of an authoritarian political regime with a dynamic market economy.

Adam Thierer, “Industrial Policy Advocates Should Learn from Don Lavoie,” Discourse, November 5, 2021.

“In light of the inherent deficiencies of central planning,” Lavoie said, “it might be argued that the U.S. should instead try to reduce current government interference with the competitive process to the absolute minimum consistent with other political goals.” It remains wise advice for today’s policymakers.
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Anne O. Krueger, “America’s Muddled Industrial Policy,” CGTN, June 25, 2021.

Governments have a poor track record of identifying “winners” – be it a company or a category of technology – whereas private companies have proved better at transforming new discoveries into new products or cost savings. That is why the U.S. state traditionally has stuck to funding basic research.

Eric Boehm, “Massive Subsidies Won’t Solve the Semiconductor Supply Chain Crisis,” Reason, January 28, 2022.

Tracy C. Miller, “The Case for Limiting Government Semiconductor Subsidies,” The Hill, June 26, 2021.

Without the subsidies, firms would be more cautious about building or expanding foundries. If long-term production capacity is truly insufficient, high prices and anticipated profits give firms the right incentives to build or expand and satisfy demand at cost-covering prices.

Scott Lincicome, “The ‘Endless Frontier’ and American Industrial Policy,” Cato Institute Blog, May 26, 2021.

U.S. industrial policy has a long history of struggling to overcome political pressures, just as public choice predicts, and the EFA is no different. None of this means that all legislating is bad, or that politicians don’t at least occasionally vote in the national interest. Instead, the public choice framework simply adds another hurdle—along with things like the “knowledge problem,” seen and unseen costs, and misaligned incentives—to designing and implementing commercial policies specifically intended to beat the admittedly messy and imperfect situation that the market generates. It’s imperative that we understand these risks before supporting policies that, while they might look good on paper, could easily morph into a counterproductive boondoggle—one we’ve seen countless times with respect to U.S. industrial policy.

Daniel W. Drezner, “Is the United States capable of industrial policy in 2021?” Washington Post, June 14, 2021.

To believe that the United States can pursue a high-caliber industrial policy, however, requires assuming a more competent state than I have seen in the past decade.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, “The Nicest Thing I Can Write About Supply Chain Policy,” The Daily Dish, June 10, 2021.

Nevertheless, the Senate just passed a provision for $50 billion to subsidize chip fabrication – something the president had requested – and the House will doubtlessly concur. That might seem like an industry victory, but wait until it realizes that the administration will assume it gives it the right to insist on union jobs, micromanage the design of chips, and dictate the pricing and distribution of the products. Good luck with that. As the definitive volume on policy analysis (Benjamin Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanack) put it, “He that lieth down with dogs shall rise up with fleas.”

Lipton Matthews, “Industrial Policy—a.k.a. Central Planning—Won’t Make America Great,” Mises Wire, November 5, 2021.

Although industrial policy is in vogue, the evidence suggests that it is not necessary for long-term development. Moreover, despite the popularity of industrial policy in China, America remains the world’s economic power, and by following China, it may lose this vaunted position.

Richard Beason, “Japanese Industrial Policy: An Economic Assessment,” National Foundation for American Policy, November 2021.

There is no evidence to support the claim that Japanese industrial policy during the 1955-1990 period enhanced growth rates by sector, industries with economies of scale (greater efficiency when produced in increased amounts), productivity growth or “competitiveness.” The reality of the political process and government spending priorities makes it very difficult for such policies to be effective. Furthermore, even if political pressures had not intervened, it seems questionable to suggest that government policymakers would be better than actual market participants in determining the most efficient allocation of resources to produce the best economic outcomes.

Douglas Irwin, “ Memo to the Biden administration on how to rethink industrial policy,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 2020.

The challenge for policymakers is to identify such industries without succumbing to the notion that every industry is vital to some public objective. For example, the goal of “economic security” is so broadly defined and open-ended that virtually every domestic producer could claim the need for government support on that basis. The risk is that ill-conceived government programs will encourage corrupt behavior in which industries benefit themselves without contributing to national welfare.

Jim Pethokoukis, “Will Biden’s embrace of industrial policy pay off?” AEI Blog, January 15, 2021.

The history of such efforts in advanced capitalist economies gives ample reason for skepticism about the effectiveness of such top-down government planning, from Japanese economic stagnation to the now-mothballed Concorde supersonic jet to France’s failed attempt to create a thriving tech sector. The Internet might seem like the exception that negates the rule, but what turned out to be a successful partnership of government and entrepreneurs didn’t arise out of some master plan from Washington. And what do even the smartest plans look like when filtered through the dodgy quality of American governance? Maybe as an excuse for cronyism and protectionism.

Adam Thierer & Connor Haaland, “Should the U.S. Copy China’s Industrial Policy?” Discourse, March 11, 2021.

America needs to embrace its already vibrant venture capital market, the benefits of basic science and prize competitions, and a light-touch regulatory approach instead of gambling taxpayer dollars on grandiose industrial policy schemes that would likely become boondoggles.

Connor Haaland & Adam Thierer, “Can European-Style Industrial Policies Create Tech Supremacy?” Discourse, February 11, 2021.

Thus far, however, the Europeans don’t have much to show for their attempts to produce home-grown tech champions. Despite highly targeted and expensive efforts to foster a domestic tech base, the EU has instead generated a string of industrial policy failures that should serve as a cautionary tale for U.S. pundits and policymakers, who seem increasingly open to more government-steered innovation efforts.

Phil Levy & Christine McDaniel, “ Does the U.S. Need a Vigorous Industrial Policy?” Discourse, February 16, 2021.

we are certainly hearing new enthusiasm these days about industrial policy. It seems to have proponents or converts on both sides of the aisle. This either means that a new consensus has emerged, or it means that the term is being used so loosely that it has lost its original meaning. I’ll go with the latter; it now means different things to different people.

Wall Street Journal columnist Greg Ip discussing why “ The traditional skepticism toward industrial policy is well deserved.”

The traditional skepticism toward industrial policy is well deserved. Once Washington starts writing checks for semiconductors, other industries may get in line with the outcome determined more by political clout than economic merit. As in shipbuilding, the targeted companies may end up in perpetual need of federal protection and unable to compete internationally

David Ignatius, “The U.S. is quietly mobilizing its economy against China,” Washington Post, March 4, 2021.

The industrial policy the AI commission recommends could unlock talent and innovation. But if officials aren’t careful, government intervention could also afflict our best companies with the dead weight and dysfunction of our broken political system. We need government to spawn brainpower, not bureaucracy.

Veronique de Rugy, “Support for Industrial Policy is Growing,” AIER, January 18, 2020.

Looking at the federal government today tells me that the problems surrounding R&D programs in the past continue today, and will continue tomorrow, because they are simply a consequence of the normal functioning of government. It is hard to wish these problems away, even in the face of the private sector’s “imperfections.” Those arguing for more funding in R&D should proceed with caution.
This bill is proposing to give money with risk-averse restrictions to a risk-averse organization (the NSF) to be dispersed among other risk-averse organizations (Universities) into a system with increasingly risk-averse incentives. Note that I’m not saying “it’s all fubar’d lets burn it to the ground!” but I am suggesting that instead of slamming on the accelerator, we should be asking “what would a tune-up and an oil change look like instead?”

Ryan Bourne, “Do Oren Cass’s Justifications for Industrial Policy Stack Up?”  Cato Commentary, August 15, 2019.

Oren Cass asserts that markets cannot generally allocate resources efficiently by industry. Yet he provides no meaningful metrics to show this is the case, nor shows why his policies would deliver better outcomes. His two main claims about the benefits of a manufacturing sector — “stable employment” and “strong productivity growth” — are directly contradictory. A plethora of evidence suggests as countries’ get richer due to automation and technological improvements, they demand relatively more services, and so the industrial sector declines in employment terms.
Scott Lincicome, “ Manufactured Crisis: ‘Deindustrialization, Free Markets, and National Security,” Cato Policy Analysis No. 907, January 27, 2021.
This skepticism—mostly absent from Washington—is indeed warranted: analyses of the U.S. manufacturing sector and the relationship between trade and national security, as well as the United States’ long and checkered history of security‐​related protectionism, undermine the theoretical justifications for imposing protectionism and industrial policy in the name of national defense. Instead, open trade, freer markets, and global interdependence will in almost all cases produce better outcomes in terms of national security and, most importantly, preventing wars and other forms of armed conflict.
Matthew Lau, “Trudeau government’s ‘industrial policy’ creates all the wrong incentives,” Toronto Sun, March 16, 2021.
]]> https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/skeptical-takes-on-expansive-industrial-policy-efforts/feed/ 4 76845 Should the US Follow China’s Lead on Industrial Policy? https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/should-the-us-follow-chinas-lead-on-industrial-policy/ https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/should-the-us-follow-chinas-lead-on-industrial-policy/#comments Mon, 15 Mar 2021 14:02:34 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76849

In our latest feature for Discourse magazine, Connor Haaland and I explore the question, “Should the U.S. Copy China’s Industrial Policy?” We begin by noting that:

Calls for revitalizing American industrial policy have multiplied in recent years, with many pundits and policymakers suggesting that the U.S. should consider taking on Europe and China by emulating their approaches to technological development. The goal would be to have Washington formulate a set of strategic innovation goals and mobilize government planning and spending around them.

We continue on to argue that what most of these advocates miss is that:

China’s targeting efforts are often antithetical to both innovation and liberty, and involve plenty of red tape and bureaucracy. China has become a remarkably innovative country for many reasons, including its greater tolerance for risk-taking, even as the Chinese Communist Party continues to pump resources into strategic sectors. But most Chinese innovation is permissible only insomuch as it furthers the party’s objectives, a strategy the U.S. obviously wouldn’t want to copy.

We discuss the problems associated with some of those Chinese efforts as well as proposed US responses, like the recently released 756 page report from the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. The report takes an everything-and-the-kitchen-sink approach to state direction for new AI-related efforts and spending. While that report says the government now must “drive change through top-down leadership” in order to “win the AI competition that is intensifying strategic competition with China,” we argue that there could be some serious pitfalls with top-down, high price tag approaches.

Jump over to the  Discourse site to read the full essay, as well as our previous essay, which asked, “Can European-Style Industrial Policies Create Tech Supremacy?” These two essay build on the research Connor and I have been doing on global artificial intelligence policies in the US, China, and the EU. In a much longer forthcoming white paper, we explore both the regulatory and industrial policy approaches for AI being adopted in the US, China, and the EU. Stay tuned for more.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2021/03/15/should-the-us-follow-chinas-lead-on-industrial-policy/feed/ 3 76849 The End of Permissionless Innovation? https://techliberation.com/2021/01/10/the-end-of-permissionless-innovation/ https://techliberation.com/2021/01/10/the-end-of-permissionless-innovation/#comments Sun, 10 Jan 2021 21:24:12 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76823

Time magazine recently declared 2020 “The Worst Year Ever.” By historical standards that may be a bit of hyperbole. For America’s digital technology sector, however, that headline rings true. After a remarkable 25-year run that saw an explosion of innovation and the rapid ascent of a group of U.S. companies that became household names across the globe, politicians and pundits in 2020 declared the party over. “We now are on the cusp of a new era of tech policy, one in which the policy catches up with the technology,” says Darrell M. West of the Brookings Institution in a recent essay, “The End of Permissionless Innovation.” West cites the House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee’s October report on competition in digital markets—where it equates large tech firms with the “oil barons and railroad tycoons” of the Gilded Age—as the clearest sign that politicization of the internet and digital technology is accelerating. It is hardly the only indication that America is set to abandon permissionless innovation and revisit the era of heavy-handed regulation for information and communication technology (ICT) markets. Equally significant is the growing bipartisan crusade against Section 230, the provision of the 1996 Telecommunications Act that shields “interactive computer services” from liability for information posted or published on their systems by users. No single policy has been more important to the flourishing of online speech or commerce than Sec. 230 because, without it, online platforms would be overwhelmed by regulation and lawsuits. But now, long knives are coming out for the law, with plenty of politicians and academics calling for it to be gutted. Calls to reform or repeal Sec. 230 were once exclusively the province of left-leaning academics or policymakers, but this year it was conservatives in the White House, on Capitol Hill and at the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) who became the leading cheerleaders for scaling back or eliminating the law. President Trump railed against Sec. 230 repeatedly on Twitter, and most recently vetoed the annual National Defense Authorization Act in part because Congress did not include a repeal of the law in the measure. Meanwhile, conservative lawmakers in Congress such as Sens. Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz have used subpoenas, angry letters and heated hearings to hammer digital tech executives about their content moderation practices. Allegations of anti-conservative bias have motivated many of these efforts. Even Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas questioned the law in a recent opinion. Other proposed regulatory interventions include calls for new national privacy laws, an “Algorithmic Accountability Act” to regulate artificial intelligence technologies, and a growing variety of industrial policy measures that would open the door to widespread meddling with various tech sectors. Some officials in the Trump administration even pushed for a nationalized 5G communications network in the name of competing with China. This growing “techlash” signals a bipartisan “Back to the Future” moment, with the possibility of the U.S. reviving a regulatory playbook that many believed had been discarded in history’s dustbin. Although plenty of politicians and pundits are taking victory laps and giving each other high-fives over the impending end of the permissionless innovation era, it is worth considering what America will be losing if we once again apply old top-down, permission slip-oriented policies to the technology sector.

Permissionless Innovation: The Basics

As an engineering principle, permissionless innovation represents the general freedom to tinker and develop new ideas and products in a relatively unconstrained fashion. As I noted in a recent book on the topic, permissionless innovation can also describe a governance disposition or regulatory default toward entrepreneurial activities. In this sense, permissionless innovation refers to the idea that experimentation with new technologies and innovations should generally be permitted by default and that prior restraints on creative activities should be avoided except in those cases where clear and immediate harm is evident. There is an obvious relationship between the narrow and broad definitions of permissionless innovation. When governments lean toward permissionless innovation as a policy default, it is likely to encourage freewheeling experimentation more generally. But permissionless innovation can sometimes occur in the wild, even when public policy instead tends toward its antithesis—the precautionary principle. As I noted in my latest book, tinkerers and innovators sometimes behave evasively and act to make permissionless innovation a reality even when public policy discourages it through precautionary restraints. To be clear, permissionless innovation as a policy default has not meant anarchy. Quite the opposite, in fact. In the United States, over the past 25 years, no major federal agencies that regulate technology or laws that do so were eliminated. Indeed, most agencies grew bigger. But in spite of this, entrepreneurs during this period got more green lights than red ones, and innovation was treated as innocent until proven guilty. This is how and why social media and the sharing economy developed and prospered here and not in other countries, where layers of permission slips prevented such innovations from ever getting off the drawing board. The question now is, how will the shift to end permissionless innovation as a policy default in the U.S. affect innovative activity here more generally? Economic historians Deirdre McCloskey and Joel Mokyr teach us that societal and political attitudes toward growth, risk-taking and entrepreneurialism have a powerful connection with the competitive standing of nations and the possibility of long-term prosperity. If America’s innovation culture sours on the idea of permissionless-ness and moves toward a precautionary principle-based model, creative minds will find it harder to experiment with bold new ideas that could help enrich the nation and improve the well-being of the citizenry—which is exactly why America discarded its old top-down regulatory model in the first place.

Why America Junked the Old Model

Perhaps the easiest way to put some rough bookends on the beginning and end of America’s permissionless innovation era is to date it to the birth and impending death of Sec. 230 itself. The enactment in 1996 of the Telecommunications Act was important, not only because it included Sec. 230, but also because the law created a sort of policy firewall between the old and new worlds of ICT regulation. The old ICT regime was rooted in a complex maze of federal, state and local regulatory permission slips. If you wanted to do anything truly innovative in the old days, you typically needed to get some regulator’s blessing first—sometimes multiple blessings. The exception was the print sector, which enjoyed robust First Amendment protection from the time of the nation’s founding. Newspapers, magazines and book publishers were left largely free of prior restraints regarding what they published or how they innovated. The electronic media of the 20th century were not so lucky. Telephony, radio, television, cable, satellite and other technologies were quickly encumbered with a crazy quilt of federal and state regulations. Those restraints include price controls, entry restrictions, speech restrictions and endless agency threats. ICT policy started turning the corner in the late 1980s after the old regulatory model failed to achieve its mission of more choice, higher quality and lower prices for media and communications. Almost everyone accepted that change was needed, and it came fast. The 1990s became a whirlwind of policy and technological change. In the mid-1990s, the Clinton administration decided to allow open commercialization of the internet, which, until then, had mostly been a plaything for government agencies and university researchers. But it was the enactment of the 1996 telecommunications law that sealed the deal. Not only did the new law largely avoid regulating the internet like analog-era ICT, but, more importantly, it included Sec. 230, which helped ensure that future regulators or overzealous tort lawyers would not undermine this wonderful new resource. A year later, the Clinton administration put a cherry on top with the release of its Framework for Global Electronic Commerce. This bold policy statement announced a clean break from the past, arguing that “the private sector should lead [and] the internet should develop as a market-driven arena, not a regulated industry.” Permissionless innovation had become the foundation of American tech policy.

The Results

Ideas have consequences, as they say, and that includes ramifications for domestic business formation and global competitiveness. While the U.S. was allowing the private sector to largely determine the shape of the internet, Europe was embarking on a very different policy path, one that would hobble its tech sector. America’s more flexible policy ecosystem proved to be fertile ground for digital startups. Consider the rise of “unicorns,” shorthand for companies valued at $1+ billion. “In terms of the global distribution of startup success,” notes the State of the Venture Capital Industry in 2019, “the number of private unicorns has grown from an initial list of 82 in 2015 to 356 in Q2 2019,” and fully half of them are U.S.-based. The United States is also home to the most innovative tech firms. Over the past decade, Strategy& (PricewaterhouseCooper’s strategy consulting business) has compiled a list of the world’s most innovative companies, based on R&D efforts and revenue. Each year that list is dominated by American tech companies. In 2013, 9 of the top 10 most innovative companies were based in the U.S., and most of them were involved in computing, software and digital technology. Global competition is intensifying, but in the most recent 2018 list, 15 of the top 25 companies are still U.S.-based giants, with Amazon, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Oracle and Cisco leading the way. Meanwhile, European digital tech companies cannot be found on any such list. While America’s tech companies are household names across the European continent, most people struggle to name a single digital innovator headquartered in the EU. Permissionless innovation crushed the precautionary principle in the trans-Atlantic policy wars. European policymakers have responded to the continent’s digital stagnation by doubling down on their aggressive regulatory efforts. The EU closed out 2020 with two comprehensive new measures (the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act), while the U.K. simultaneously pursued a new “online harms” law. Taken together, these proposals represent “the biggest potential expansion of global tech regulation in years,” according to The Wall Street Journal. The measures will greatly expand extraterritorial control over American tech companies. Having decimated their domestic technology base and driven away innovators and investors, EU officials are now resorting to plugging budget shortfalls with future antitrust fines on U.S.-based tech companies. It has essentially been a lost quarter century for Europe on the information technology front, and now American companies are expected to pay for it.

Republicans Revive ‘Regulation-By-Raised-Eyebrow’

In light of the failure of Europe’s precautionary principle-based policy paradigm, and considering the threat now posed by the growing importance of various Chinese tech companies, one might think U.S. policymakers would be celebrating the competitive advantages created by a quarter century of American tech dominance and contemplating how to apply this winning vision to other sectors of the economy. Alas, despite its amazing run, business and political leaders are now turning against permissionless innovation as America’s policy lodestar. What is most surprising is how this reversal is now being championed by conservative Republicans, who traditionally support deregulation. President Trump also called for tightening the screws on Big Tech. For example, in a May 2020 Executive Order on “Preventing Online Censorship,” he accused online platforms of “selective censorship that is harming our national discourse” and suggested that “these platforms function in many ways as a 21st century equivalent of the public square.” Trump and his supporters put Google, Facebook, Twitter and Amazon in their crosshairs, accusing them of discriminating against conservative viewpoints or values. The irony here is that no politician owes more to modern social media platforms than Donald Trump, who effectively used them to communicate his ideas directly to the American people. Moreover, conservative pundits now enjoy unparalleled opportunity to get their views out to the wider world thanks to all the digital soapboxes they now can stand on. YouTube and Twitter are chock-full of conservative punditry, and the daily list of top 10 search terms on Facebook is dominated consistently by conservative voices, where “the right wing has a massive advantage,” according to Politico. Nonetheless, conservatives insist they still don’t get a fair shake from the cornucopia of new communications platforms that earlier generations of conservatives could have only dreamed about having at their disposal. They think the deck is stacked against them by Silicon Valley liberals. This growing backlash culminated in a remarkable Senate Commerce Committee hearing on Oct. 28 in which congressional Republicans hounded tech CEOs and called for more favorable treatment of conservatives, and threatened social media companies with regulation if conservative content was taken down. Liberal lawmakers, by contrast, uniformly demanded the companies do more to remove content they felt was harmful or deceptive in some fashion. In many cases, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were talking about the exact same content, putting the companies in the impossible position of having to devise a Goldilocks formula to get the content balance just right, even though it would be impossible to make both sides happy. In the broadcast era, this sort of political harassment was known as the “regulation-by-raised-eyebrow” approach, which allowed officials to get around First Amendment limitations on government content control. Congressional lawmakers and regulators at the FCC would set up show trial hearings and use political intimidation to gain programming concessions from licensed radio and television operators. These shakedown tactics didn’t always work, but they often resulted in forms of soft censorship, with media outlets editing content to make politicians happy. The same dynamic is at work today. Thus, when a firebrand politician like Sen. Josh Hawley suggests “we’d be better off if Facebook disappeared,” or when Sohrab Ahmari, the conservative op-ed editor at the New York Post, calls for the nationalization of Twitter, they likely understand these extreme proposals won’t happen. But such jawboning represents an easy way to whip up your base while also indirectly putting intense pressure on companies to tweak their policies. Make us happy, or else! It is not always clear what that “or else” entails, but the accumulated threats probably have some effect on content decisions made by these firms. Whether all this means that Sec. 230 gets scrapped or not shouldn’t distract from the more pertinent fact: few on the political right are preaching the gospel of permissionless innovation anymore. Even tech companies and Silicon Valley-backed organizations now actively distance themselves from the term. Zachary Graves, head of policy at Lincoln Network, a tech advocacy organization, worries that permissionless innovation is little more than a “legitimizing facade for anarcho-capitalists, tech bros, and cynical corporate flacks.” He lines up with the growing cast of commentators on both the left and right who endorse a “Tech New Deal” without getting concrete about what that means in practice. What it likely means is a return to a well-worn regulatory playbook of the past that resulted in innovation stagnation and crony capitalism.

A More Political Future

Indeed, as was the case during past eras of permission slip-based policy, our new regulatory era will be a great boon to the largest tech companies. Many people advocate greater regulation in the name of promoting competition, choice, quality and lower prices. But merely because someone proclaims that they are looking to serve the public interest doesn’t mean the regulatory policies they implement will achieve those well-intentioned goals. The means to the end—new rules, regulations and bureaucracies—are messy, imprecise and often counterproductive. Fifty years ago, the Nobel prize-winning economist George Stigler taught us that, “as a rule, regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefits.” In other words, new regulations often help to entrench existing players rather than fostering greater competition. Countless experts since then have documented the problem of regulatory capture in various contexts. If the past is prologue, we can expect many large tech firms to openly embrace regulation as they come to see it as a useful way of preserving market share and fending off pesky new rivals, most of whom will not be able to shoulder the compliance burdens and liability threats associated with permission slip-based regulatory regimes. True to form, in recent congressional hearings, Facebook head Mark Zuckerberg called on lawmakers to begin regulating social media markets. The company then rolled out a slick new website and advertising campaign inviting new rules on various matters. It is always easy for the king of the hill to call for more regulation when that hill is a mound of red tape of their own making—and which few others can ascend. It is a lesson we should have learned in the AT&T era, when a decidedly unnatural monopoly was formed through a partnership between company officials and the government.

Image Credit: Infrogmation/Wikimedia Commons

Many independent telephone companies existed across America before AT&T’s leaders cut sweetheart deals with policymakers that tilted the playing field in its favor and undermined competition. With rivals hobbled by entry restrictions and other rules, Ma Bell went on to enjoy more than a half century of stable market share and guaranteed rates of return. Consumers, by contrast, were expected to be content with plain-vanilla telephone services that barely changed. Some of us are old enough to remember when the biggest “innovation” in telephony involved the move from rotary-dial phones to the push-button Princess phone, which, we were thrilled to discover, came in multiple colors and had a longer cord. In a similar way, the impending close of the permissionless innovation era signals the twilight of technological creative destruction and its replacement by a new regime of political favor-seeking and logrolling, which could lead to innovation stagnation. The CEOs of the remaining large tech companies will be expected to make regular visits to the halls of Congress and regulatory agencies (and to all those fundraising parties, too) to get their marching orders, just as large telecom and broadcaster players did in the past. We will revert to the old historical trajectory, which saw communications and media companies securing marketplace advantages more through political machinations than marketplace merit.

Will Politics Really Catch Up?

While permissionless innovation may be falling out of favor with elites, America’s entrepreneurial spirit will be hard to snuff out, even when layers of red tape make it riskier to be creative. If for no other reason, permissionless innovation still has a fighting chance so long as Congress struggles to enact comprehensive technology measures. General legislative dysfunction and profound technological ignorance are two reasons that Congress has largely become a non-actor on tech policy in recent years. But the primary limitation on legislative meddling is the so-called pacing problem, which refers to the way technological innovation often outpaces the ability of laws and regulations to keep up. “I have said more than once that innovation moves at the speed of imagination and that government has traditionally moved at, well, the speed of government,” observed former Federal Aviation Administration head Michael Huerta in a 2016 speech.

DNA sequencing machine. Image Credit: Assembly/Getty Images

The same factors that drove the rise of the internet revolution—digitization, miniaturization, ubiquitous mobile connectivity and constantly increasing processing power—are spreading to many other sectors and challenging precautionary policies in the process. For example, just as “Moore’s Law” relentlessly powers the pace of change in ICT sectors, the “Carlson curve” now fuels genetic innovation. The curve refers to the fact that, over the past two decades, the cost of sequencing a human genome has plummeted from over $100 million to under $1,000, a rate nearly three times faster than Moore’s Law. Speed isn’t the only factor driving the pacing problem. Policymakers also struggle with metaphysical considerations about how to define the things they seek to regulate. It used to be easy to agree what a phone, television or medical tracking device was for regulatory purposes. But what do those terms really mean in the age of the smartphone, which incorporates all of them and much more? “‘Tech’ is a very diverse, widely-spread industry that touches on all sorts of different issues,” notes tech analyst Benedict Evans. “These issues generally need detailed analysis to understand, and they tend to change in months, not decades.” This makes regulating the industry significantly more challenging than it was in the past. It doesn’t mean the end of regulation—especially for sectors already encumbered by many layers of preexisting rules. But these new realities lead to a more interesting game of regulatory whack-a-mole: pushing down technological innovation in one way often means it simply pops up somewhere else. The continued rapid growth of what some call “the new technologies of freedom”—artificial intelligence, blockchain, the Internet of Things, etc.—should give us some reasons for optimism. It’s hard to put these genies back in their bottles now that they’re out. This is even more true thanks to the growth of innovation arbitrage—both globally and domestically. Creators and capital now move fluidly across borders in pursuit of more hospitable innovation and investment climates. Recently, some high-profile tech CEOs like Elon Musk and Joe Lonsdale have relocated from California to Texas, citing tax and regulatory burdens as key factors in their decisions. Oracle, America’s second-largest software company, also just announced it is moving its corporate headquarters from Silicon Valley to Austin, just over a week after Hewlett Packard Enterprise said it too is moving its headquarters from California to Texas—in this case, Houston. “Voting with your feet” might actually still mean something, especially when it is major tech companies and venture capitalists abandoning high-tax, over-regulated jurisdictions.

Advocacy Remains Essential

But we shouldn’t imagine that technological change is inevitable or fall into the trap of thinking of it as a sort of liberation theology that will magically free us from repressive government controls. Policy advocacy still matters. Innovation defenders will need to continue to push back against the most burdensome precautionary policies, while also promoting reforms that protect entrepreneurial endeavors. The courts offer us great hope. Groups like the Institute for Justice, the Goldwater Institute, the Pacific Legal Foundation and others continue to litigate successfully in defense of the freedom to innovate. While the best we can hope for in the legislative arena may be perpetual stalemate, these and other public interest law firms are netting major victories in courtrooms across America. Sometimes court victories force positive legislative changes, too. For example, in 2015, the Supreme Court handed down North Carolina State Board of Dental Examiners v. Federal Trade Commission, which held that local government cannot claim broad immunity from federal antitrust laws when it delegates power to nongovernmental bodies, such as licensing boards. This decision made much-needed occupational licensing reform an agenda item across America. Many states introduced or adopted bipartisan legislation aimed at reforming or sunsetting occupational licensing rules that undermine entrepreneurship. Even more exciting are proposals that would protect citizens’ “right to earn a living.” This right would allow individuals to bring suit if they believe a regulatory scheme or decision has unnecessarily infringed upon their ability to earn a living within a legally permissible line of work. Meanwhile, there have been ongoing state efforts to advance “right to try” legislation that would expand medical treatment options for Americans tired of overly paternalistic health regulations. Perhaps, then, it is too early to close the book on the permissionless innovation era. While dark political clouds loom over America’s technological landscape, there are still reasons to believe the entrepreneurial spirit can prevail.
]]> https://techliberation.com/2021/01/10/the-end-of-permissionless-innovation/feed/ 2 76823 Europe’s New AI Industrial Policy https://techliberation.com/2020/02/20/europes-new-ai-industrial-policy/ https://techliberation.com/2020/02/20/europes-new-ai-industrial-policy/#comments Thu, 20 Feb 2020 19:37:48 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76667

The race for artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy is on with governments across the globe looking to take the lead in the next great technological revolution. As they did before during the internet era, the US and Europe are once again squaring off with competing policy frameworks.

In early January, the Trump Administration announced a new light-touch regulatory framework and then followed up with a proposed doubling of federal R&D spending on AI and quantum computing. This week, the European Union Commission issued a major policy framework for AI technologies and billed it as “a European approach to excellence and trust.”

It seems the EU basically wants to have its cake and eat it too by marrying up an ambitious industrial policy with a precautionary regulatory regime. We’ve seen this show before. Europe is doubling down on the same policy regime it used for the internet and digital commerce. It did not work out well for the continent then, and there are reasons to think it will backfire on them again for AI technologies.

An Ambitious Industrial Policy Vision

The new EU framework includes a lot of catchphrases and proposals that are an industrial policy lover’s dream. In an attempt to create “an ecosystem of excellence” and ensure the “human-centric development if AI,” it identifies a variety of existing or new industrial planning efforts, including: Digital Innovation Hubs, Enterprise Resource Planning, the Digital Europe Programme, the Key Digital Technology Joint Undertaking, and broad-based public private partnerships. This is all part of an official “Coordinated Plan” prepared together with the Member States “to foster the development and use of AI in Europe.”

To accomplish that, the Commission says it will “facilitate the creation of excellence and testing centres” that will “concentrate in sectors where Europe has the potential to become a global champion.” The Commission also wants to give special consideration to growing small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs) is establishing these plans.

Again, it’s an ambitious industrial policy vision, and one that will be accompanied by a wide variety of (yet-to-be-determined) regulatory enactments to shape the development and use of AI. But if that approach really works, why aren’t European digital companies global leaders today? Instead, firms based mostly in the US have risen to become household names across the globe. Regulation had an influence on that result because American firms enjoyed a policy regime that was rooted in “permissionless innovation,” which generally allows experimentation by default and addresses concerns by using more flexible, ex post remedies. By contrast, Europe’s internet policy approach was rooted in the precautionary principle, or the notion that innovation is essentially guilty until proven innocent. New technologies are to be subjected to prior constraints—or what the new European Commission white paper calls “prior conformity assessments”—before being allow into the wild.

Precautionary Regulation Dominates

Despite losing that last round of the innovation wars, the new EU white paper makes it clear that Europe will keep using a precautionary approach. What does that mean for AI regulation? The problem here begins with defining what is a “high-risk” AI application requiring prior restraints. The white paper defines it in a somewhat circular fashion, saying that, “an AI application should be considered high-risk where…(it) is employed in a sector where, given the characteristics of the activities typically undertaken, significant risks can be expected to occur” and is “used in such a manner that significant risks are likely to arise.” Instead of providing legal certainty, this definition clarifies almost nothing and will require future regulatory inquires to determine the full scope and nature of AI controls.

There’s also a lot of talk in the proposal about preemptively addressing “risks for fundamental rights,” which is understandable. AI innovations can raise various safety, security, and privacy concerns that deserve to be taken seriously. But what about the risk of not having access to important AI innovations at all? What about the risk of losing out on life-enriching—and in many cases life-saving—innovations because, instead of “building trust,” the regulatory regime builds the exact opposite: fear of innovating.

Entrepreneurs and investors respond to incentives. Before building or investing in a new technology, they want to know how long it will take to get that good or service launched—assuming they can get approval at all. Every innovator and investor factors such political risk into their business plans. When the potential costs of product launch overwhelm the likely benefits, they will abandon innovative efforts or look to engage in them elsewhere.

The EU says “the race for global leadership is ongoing,” and claims that, “Europe offers significant potential, knowledge and expertise” through its efforts to make the continent an AI innovation hub. Indeed, some of the best AI researchers are in Europe, and there are plenty of brilliant people brimming with entrepreneurial enthusiasm about creating world-class AI applications. But all that knowledge and enthusiasm do not matter much if the regulatory deck is stacked against innovation from the start.

And Even More Expansive Regulation Down the Road

Beyond the precautionary approach in that document, the EU’s accompanying white paper on safety and liability implications of AI leaves open the possibility of an expansion in preemptive regulatory requirements. “Additional obligations may be needed for manufacturers to ensure that they provide features to prevent the upload of software having an impact on safety during the lifetime of the AI products,” the document notes. Moreover, if an ongoing AI software update “modifies substantially the product in which it is downloaded, the entire product might be considered as a new product and compliance with the relevant safety product legislation must be reassessed at the time the modification is performed.”

That sort of regulatory regime may sound quite sensible at first blush. In practice, however, it means that every conceivable tweak to an algorithm requires costly and complex regulatory approval. If traditional computer software had required regulatory approval before any new modifications could be made, most consumers would still be stuck with an aol.com email address and Windows 95 as an operating system.

What the European Commission proves with its new AI policy framework is that it is easy to talk a big game about planning for an innovative future, but it is an entirely different thing to actually bring one about. The European approach will have clear competitive effects, or more specifically, anti-competitive effects. As is already the case with the EU’s regulatory approach to the data economy and GDPR in particular, regulatory compliance costs continue to skyrocket and small and mid-size enterprises struggle to cope. This means that only firms operating the largest digital platforms are able to shoulder these burdens, leaving consumers without as many competitive, low-cost choices as they might otherwise enjoy. Not even generous government support for SMEs will be able to counter-balance the costly entry barriers associated with over-regulation.

Solidifying Market Power of Existing Giants?

This is why it is so ironic how worried the EU is about the market power of Google, Facebook and other US-based tech giants: the regulatory burden now helps those firms maintain their market dominance. Over-regulation by the EU undermined both home-grown and international investment and competition that might challenge those existing players. With each addition layer of AI regulation that now gets piled on top of the Europe’s existing regulatory burden, the prospects for creative destruction decrease, as do the chances for life-enriching innovations to ever make it to consumers.

While the European Commission will, no doubt, insist that they are implementing this new AI regime with the very best of intentions in mind, there is no escaping the fact that regulation involves complex trade-offs and unforeseeable consequences. The consequences in this case are likely a bit easier to predict, however: By smothering new AI applications in layers of red tape, we can expect fewer innovations and less competition.

Despite all the talk of boosting SMEs, perhaps the EU will eventually become more like China and unabashedly support larger home-grown firms to make sure they are part of the global AI race. China has already made waves on this front with its 2017 “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan,” an audacious industrial policy plan which seeks “to build China’s first-mover advantage in the development of AI [and] to accelerate the construction of an innovative nation and global power in science and technology.” The document is as much a manifesto about geopolitical power as it is about technological governance. And it does not try to hide China’s authoritarian impulse to meticulously plan every facet of daily life under the auspices of promoting global technological leadership. China’s AI manifesto even concludes with a section on “public opinion guidance” that creepily insists the country will, “Fully use all kinds of traditional media and new media to quickly propagate new progress and new achievements in AI, to let the healthy development of AI become a consensus in all of society, and muster the vigor of all of society to participate in and support the development of AI.”

The new European AI industrial policy framework does not go as far as China’s, not only because the continent is obviously more open and democratic by nature, but also because the EU is a collection of many countries and cultures that will never be able to speak as coherently and forcefully with one voice on all technological governance matters. In fact, the EU’s new governance framework explicitly leaves room for more tailored AI regulation by individual member states.

Conclusion

This leaves Europe stuck between the polar opposites of China and the US when it comes to AI governance. China’s meticulously detailed, highly centralized, state-driven approach stands in stark contrast to the more bottom-up, adaptive American approach which insists that regulators, “must avoid a precautionary approach that holds AI systems to such an impossibly high standard that society cannot enjoy their benefits.”

The US approach also leans heavily on “soft law,” or informal governance mechanisms that are not as burdensome as precautionary regulatory controls. Soft law can include a wide variety of tools and methods for addressing policy concerns, including multistakeholder initiatives, best practices and standards, agency workshops and guidance documents, educational efforts, and much more. These are the governance tools the dominated for the internet and digital platforms for that past twenty years in the US, and they will likely continue to be the primary governance mechanisms for artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, and other emerging tech sectors.

The EU probably thinks it has found the Goldilocks formula and gotten AI policy just right by falling between China and the US on the governance spectrum. It is more likely, however, that European policymakers will be unable to resist the urge to over-plan and micro-manage AI markets until they are once again left wondering how they got stuck trying to regulate market leaders that are headquartered oceans away from them. With the US once again adopting a more flexible approach, we could see a replay of the Web Wars, with innovators and investors putting their efforts behind AI launches in the US instead of Europe. Meanwhile, China will likely attract far more global venture capital for AI and robotics launches than they did for digital platforms. This could really put the squeeze on Europe.

Only time will tell. But, to paraphrase Yoda, when it comes to global artificial intelligence governance, one thing is clear: Begun the AI war has.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2020/02/20/europes-new-ai-industrial-policy/feed/ 1 76667 For air taxis, the government can literally make money out of thin air https://techliberation.com/2019/02/19/for-air-taxis-the-government-can-literally-make-money-out-of-thin-air/ https://techliberation.com/2019/02/19/for-air-taxis-the-government-can-literally-make-money-out-of-thin-air/#comments Tue, 19 Feb 2019 15:17:11 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76456

Every week, it seems, there is a news story about another air taxi startup or test flight. Another signal of the industry’s development is that at a House Transportation and Infrastructure hearing last week, Eric Fanning, the President and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, devoted most of his testimony to urging lawmaker action on air taxi (also called vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and, colloquially, flying cars) policy and infrastructure.

The technology is exciting but federal officials are interested in whether the air taxi industry will be a drain on taxpayers. Using government estimates of the air taxi industry and current tax rates for infrastructure-based industries like wireless and oil extraction, I estimate that the air taxi industry could deposit tens of billions of dollars into the US Treasury annually. Hopefully the hundreds of air taxi “vertiports” required are privately funded as well.

Air Taxi Market Size

In November, I published a Wall Street Journal piece about the rapid development and promise of the air taxi industry. Some people inquired as to the potential size of the air taxi market and government revenue. I wasn’t aware of any estimates at the time. Nevertheless, I estimated that the US market could one day reach $200 billion in revenue annually–about the size of the current US aviation market and the US wireless broadband market.

Other analyst and government estimates are now coming out, turns out, my estimates were on the conservative side. For instance, a NASA-funded study (.pdf) estimated that, at the upper limit, the US market could approach $500 billion annually, which is nearly the size of the US auto market. That would require tens of thousands of air taxis serving over 10 million passengers per day.

Experts at McKinsey, NASA, and JP Morgan Chase estimate that the global air taxi market could be anywhere from $615 billion to $3 trillion annually by 2040. Given the potential for this industry, other countries are moving quickly to commercialize air taxis. A German consultancy, Roland Berger, predicts there will be 3,000 commercial air taxis by 2025. The drone expert at the World Economic Forum believes Chinese companies are far ahead when it comes to autonomous air taxi service. That said, the operator of the Frankfurt airport announced a partnership with an eVTOL company recently, and the powerful Japanese trade and industry ministry has convened a 25-member private-public council to develop air taxis. Japanese regulators intend to make Japan the birthplace of urban air taxi service.

Private or Public Funding of Vertiports?

A key decision for US lawmakers is whether the hundreds of vertiports in the US will be privately funded and operated or will, like today’s airports, receive subsidies and public operation. A NASA study estimates that each major US city could support on average about 200 “vertiports.” That would be a major drain on taxpayers if publicly funded.

My working paper on the subject of air taxi traffic management contemplates entirely private funding of urban vertiports and infrastructure. It also proposes that the government auction aerial corridors to air taxi operators. Private infrastructure and the auction of exclusive aerial corridors, in my view, is the safest and most fiscally responsible way to develop the American air taxi market.

However, the FAA and NASA’s plans are unclear on whether air taxi infrastructure will be funded by taxpayers or funded privately. There’s a good chance the FAA and NASA will import the norms and regulations for traditional aviation–open access airspace and public funding of shared airports–into the urban air mobility market. I think that would create an anticompetitive market and be an unnecessary drain on taxpayers.

Government Revenue From the Air Taxi Industry

How much government revenue could be generated by the air taxi industry? We can look to other assets that are auctioned by government for analogues: spectrum and offshore oil sites. There is no “spectrum tax,” but wireless taxes and fees resemble a de facto tax on cellular spectrum. The Tax Foundation puts government (federal, state, and local) wireless taxes and fees at around 9% of annual wireless revenues. For oil leases on federal property, there is a government royalty amounting to about 12.5% of oil revenue.

With these figures in mind, let’s assume that government taxes and fees will one day amount to about 10% of air taxi revenues. Supposing that the US air taxi market will one day fall between my conservative estimate, $200 billion annually, and NASA’s best-case estimate, $500 billion annually, the air taxi industry could one day generate about $20 billion to $50 billion in tax revenue annually. That doesn’t include the auction revenues of aerial corridors, if implemented. If spectrum auctions and offshore oil leases are the best comparison, the auction of aerial corridors could return another $100 billion to the US Treasury.

These are tentative estimates. Market size estimates vary widely, and much depends on whether a workable regulatory framework develops. In any case, like aviation 100 years ago, it’s an exciting area to watch.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2019/02/19/for-air-taxis-the-government-can-literally-make-money-out-of-thin-air/feed/ 2 76456 Emerging Tech Export Controls Run Amok https://techliberation.com/2018/11/28/emerging-tech-export-controls-run-amok/ https://techliberation.com/2018/11/28/emerging-tech-export-controls-run-amok/#comments Wed, 28 Nov 2018 16:55:53 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76421

By Adam Thierer & Jennifer Huddleston Skees

“ He’s making a list and checking it twice. Gonna find out who’s naughty and nice .”

With the Christmas season approaching, apparently it’s not just Santa who is making a list. The Trump Administration has just asked whether a long list of emerging technologies are naughty or nice — as in whether they should be heavily regulated or allowed to be developed and traded freely.

If they land on the naughty list, these technologies could be subjected to complex export control regulations, which would limit research and development efforts in many emerging tech fields and inadvertently undermine U.S. innovation and competitiveness. Worse yet, it isn’t even clear there would be any national security benefit associated with such restrictions.  

From Light-Touch to a Long List

Generally speaking, the Trump Administration has adopted a “light-touch” approach to the regulation of emerging technology and relied on more flexible “soft law” approaches to high-tech policy matters. That’s what makes the move to impose restrictions on the trade and usage of these emerging technologies somewhat counter-intuitive. On November 19, the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security launched a “ Review of Controls for Certain Emerging Technologies .” The notice seeks public comment on “criteria for identifying emerging technologies that are essential to U.S. national security, for example because they have potential conventional weapons, intelligence collection, weapons of mass destruction, or terrorist applications or could provide the United States with a qualitative military or intelligence advantage.”

The Commerce Department has long sought to control the use of such technologies through a combination of methods, including formal export controls. The process for establishing such controls was clumsily cobbled together over time, so Congress passed the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 (ECRA) to formalize these regulations. ECRA requires that the President formulate an interagency process to coordinate these rules with the goal of creating, “a regular and robust process to identify the emerging and other types of critical technologies of concern, as defined in United States foreign direct investment laws, and regulate their release to foreign persons as warranted regardless of the nature of the underlying transaction.” As part of this process, the Commerce Department is to create a list “of foreign persons and end-uses that are determined to be a threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States . . .  and to whom exports, reexports, and transfers of items are controlled.”

Sweeping Breadth

That is what prompted the Trump Administration’s recent Emerging Technologies notice, which includes is a remarkably sweeping list of technologies that the Commerce Department is considering for the exports controls list. The list has 14 major categories:

(1) Biotechnology

(2) Artificial intelligence

(3) Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) technology

(4) Microprocessor technology

(5) Advanced computing technology

(6) Data analytics technology

(7) Quantum information and sensing technology

(8) Logistics technology

(9) Additive manufacturing / 3D printing

(10) Robotics

(11) Brain-computer interfaces

(12) Hypersonics

(13) Advanced materials

(14) Advanced surveillance technologies

The Department’s 14-category list also includes over 40 itemized examples of specific applications. For example, the “artificial intelligence” category alone includes a list of 11 applied types of AI, from AI cloud technologies and chipsets to neural networks to speech and audio processing.

The breadth of this list is remarkable in that it touches almost every emerging technology sector imaginable. It might have been easier for the Commerce Department to simply list those emerging technologies that will not be subject to review for potential export controls. It is an “everything-but-the-kitchen-sink” approach to emerging technology policy oversight and regulation that could clearly have far reaching consequences beyond national security.

There are some obvious dangers with such an open-ended review and it is important to remember these technologies have many beneficial applications as well as any potential risks.

Threatening Beneficial Uses

First, the potential export regulations create the danger of negative spillover effects that could undermine beneficial uses of each technology listed . All of the technologies listed have already been used in many ways that benefit both consumers and businesses. Limitations on their export could limit their availability or prevent improvements due to concerns that such broad interpretations of restrictions could limit the market.

For example, the regulation of AI mentioned above would not only address concerns about how AI might be used in weapons, but could even undermine the export of technology that has become a part of our everyday lives such as Siri in iPhones and Amazon’s Alexa. While the department claims that it seeks to “avoid negatively impacting U.S. leadership in the science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing sectors,” it is unlikely that any but the most narrowly tailored rules could actually avoid having a negative impact on innovation in the named technologies .

The more general purpose a technology the more difficult it will be to control the potential impact on the beneficial uses of the technology as well as the negative impacts. In fact, in some cases such as AI and robotics it can even be difficult to define what the technology is, because it is typically the applications and not the technology more generally that is being discussed and regulated. In many cases, the anti-export regulations would or could at least signal to entrepreneurial innovators that their time is better spent on other technologies or that their work should be taken elsewhere and risks the U.S. falling behind other countries in these important innovative areas.  

Undermining International Competitiveness

Second, the inquiry could undermine U.S. competitiveness by encouraging more offshoring in a world of innovation arbitrage opportunities . With our increasingly connected global economy and specifically the more mobile nature of many emerging technologies, it is becoming easier for innovators who find themselves subjected to onerous regulations in one country to move their research and development efforts to another. This is sometimes referred to as “ innovation arbitrage .”

While the U.S. remains a leader in attracting innovators, this scenario has already played out several times. For example, Amazon moved its drone testing program to the UK rather than test in the US due in large part to FAA regulations regarding drones. Similarly, 23andme also initially took its direct-to-consumer genetic testing abroad after the FDA threatened to shut down their product.

Heavily regulating the export of general applications of these technologies could actually backfire and encourage innovators to take their research to countries like China where they do not face such regulations. R. David Edelman, the director of the Project on Technology, the Economy, and National Security at MIT, has noted that while the inquiry might be “intended to help US companies be more competitive,” the reality is that “it would almost certainly give Chinese companies that don’t face those same restrictions a sizable advantage in the playing field.”

Moreover, if export controls undermine domestic innovation and competitiveness in this fashion and benefit developers in other countries, it means the U.S. will have less of a say over the ethical development of many important technologies. Bloomberg contributor Noah Smith observes that , when it comes to the global race for hegemony in genetic sciences, China is poised to take the lead. “If the U.S. shies away from developing genetic-engineering technology, these riches will flow to China, or to whatever other countries seize the technological edge,” he notes. That would be problematic not just from a competitive perspective, but also from an ethical perspective, because America would have less of a say in guiding the development of these important but controversial technologies. “Dystopian outcomes are also less likely with the U.S. at the helm,” Smith believes.

Limiting or Ending Technologies Consumers Already Enjoy

Third, the inquiry could pose a threat to everyday consumer technologies that are already widely distributed . The most interesting thing about the technologies listed in the notice is that many of them have moved well beyond the “emerging” phrase of development. They are already out in the wild and being used by people every day.

For example, among the AI technologies listed in the notice are “speech and audio processing (e.g., speech recognition and production)” as well as, “natural language processing (e.g., machine translation).” We already enjoy a great many services such as those today, including Siri and Alexa. Meanwhile, there are technologies already on the market that help disabled and autistic children communicate and interact with their peers using AI and robotics.

For example, the KASPAR robot helps children with such disabilities learn social skills to interact with their peers and teach conversational skills. Similarly, technology that translates apparently nonverbal sounds and other methods of communication into speech via apps and other technology with various voices that others can understand could be subject to development ending regulations or be unable to help children in other countries if the proposed export restrictions are phrased too broadly. Not only might new restrictions limit the development of new technologies, it could even limit or eliminate those that we have already embraced and improved the lives of many.

Risk to Research & Open-Source Efforts

Fourth, the expansion of export controls for many of the technologies listed in the inquiry opens the door to widespread policing of open source coding and communications , but offers no explanation of how that would even work. A large number of the technologies on the Commerce Department list have both commercial and non-commercial applications. Innovation scholars use terms like “ free innovation ” and “social entrepreneurialism” to describe innovative efforts that are undertaken by individuals or groups of people to pursue a broader array of social goals or values beyond just profit-seeking.

A prominent example of social entrepreneurs engaging in free innovation involves the use of 3D printers and open source designs to voluntarily create prosthetics for children with limb deficiencies. What happens to collaborative, non-commercial innovations like that if export controls are suddenly imposed on additive manufacturing technologies by the Department of Commerce? If one participant is based outside the US, is that sufficient to subject such collaboration to export controls? What, exactly, would be subjected to controls? The 3D printers? The open source blueprints? The website hosting such information? It is difficult to imagine how such regulation would work in practice but it is easy to imagine the effect it would have if pursued: It would create a massive chilling effect on many beneficial forms of innovation and simultaneously threaten freedom of speech and academic research.

This same problem could play out in many other technology fields listed in the Commerce Department notice, including: robotics, speech recognition, biotechnology, and genetic engineering, among many others often engage in open and cross-border collaboration for open source development. Free innovation and social entrepreneurialism are expanding rapidly in these and other emerging technology arenas. Thus, export control regulation can no longer hinge on going after “deep-pocketed” corporations looking to sell physical systems. To be truly effective, regulations will need to cover bottom-up, “grassroots” innovation. But that move will have profound ramifications for the freedom to freely tinker with or even freely research important technologies and technological processes.

Dubious National Security Benefits

There’s a final danger associated with this effort: it might not help advance America’s national security objectives , and could even hinder them.

To the extent that ECRA and this new Department of Commerce effort lead to heightened scrutiny for the many dozens of technologies identified, it could undermine research and development efforts in many of those fields. It could do so directly (by formally limiting or forbidding domestic R&D efforts) or indirectly (by incentivizing many domestic emerging tech innovators to move their operations offshore, or discouraging foreign developers from setting up shop here). Not only would such actions risk the US losing its lead in innovation, it could actually result in such regulations backfiring from a national security perspective.  

At the end of the day, the problem here is that Congress is failing to clearly identify what is “essential to the national security of the United States.” ECRA just passes the buck on that thorny question to the Commerce Department for a laundry list of emerging technologies. By soliciting public input, the best hope here is that experts in these various emerging technology sectors will step forward and identify the trade-offs associated with inclusion of most of these technologies on the export controls list. Hopefully, the list would then be narrowed the much smaller class of applied technologies that have a very real, immediate, and clearly catastrophic potential for harm to the national security interests of the nation. That would have been the better way to begin this process, but Congress and the Administration have instead adopted the opposite approach here and now we must hope that they are willing to significantly pare back the list of technologies even being considered for inclusion.

Back to the Crypto Wars?

In a sense, this debate was foreshadowed by the debate in the late 1990s over export controls for encryption technologies. As encryption emerged , law enforcement and national security agencies were concerned about its potential use by bad actors to hide or destroy evidence or information by using encrypted devices or services and sought to require backdoors to be able to access encrypted data and to restrict the export of certain types of encryption and certain encrypted devices. Such requirements, as the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation’s Daniel Castro and Alan McQuinn pointed out, would actually reduce the security of everyday Americans to cyber attacks, negatively impact U.S. businesses’ global competitiveness, and reduce the competitiveness and innovation of the technology sector not only in encryption but in related fields as well.

Luckily, many of these concerns were avoided and encryption restrictions have been narrowly tailored. Recent tensions between the FBI and tech companies like Apple illustrate that this debate is far from settled. Now it seems that the Commerce Department’s proposed restrictions could create the same vulnerabilities more broadly for a great number of emerging technologies.

“Soft Law” & Next Steps

In some ways this move to regulate technologies via export restrictions shows the dark side of the growing trend of “soft law.” Soft law, as we discuss in more detail in our forthcoming paper , includes regulatory actions such as guidance documents, working groups, sandboxing, and many other informal regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms are often used to regulate emerging technologies in the absence of formal actions or because the traditional policymaking apparatus cannot keep pace with the rapid evolution of technology. In many cases soft law has been used to accelerate technological development that otherwise might have been limited by traditional hard law.

But where soft law thrives in the vacuum left by a lack of formal delegation and regulation, this inaction also poses risks. Agencies like the Commerce Department could extend amorphous powers over emerging technologies without the expertise to fully understand the way such regulations might negatively affect beneficial technological developments, which are typically hard to predict in advance.

A smarter approach to export controls for emerging technologies begins with a rational assessment of:

  1. a more robust evaluation of what really constitutes a tangible, immediate, irreversible, and catastrophic harm to the national security interests of the United States;
  2. the practicality of proposed controls for any emerging technologies considered for inclusion on the list;
  3. the wisdom of placing technologies on the list which already have been developed or marketed overseas (or appear poised to be); and,
  4. the potential unintended consequences that any new export controls might have on the innovative potential of American creators and companies, the future of research in important sectors, the free flow of knowledge regarding peaceful applications, and the competitive standing of the United States relative to other countries.
  5. whether catastrophic concerns about emerging technologies might be better addressed through multilateral accords or agreements aimed at achieving global consensus regarding inappropriate use and applications (as has been done in chemical weapon treaties and nuclear non-proliferation efforts).

Several specific technologies may still qualify for inclusion on the export controls list after such an evaluation, but it will start with a more limited approach and then expand as necessary. Such an approach assumes that in general purpose technology is not a threat until proven otherwise. By inverting the process in this fashion, the Administration wouldn’t be treating every emerging technology under the sun as guilty until proven innocent; innovations would be allowed to flourish naturally until the potential for harm is well-documented.

Unfortunately, the Commerce Department’s proposed approach does just the opposite and risks minimizing the benefits of these emerging technologies while doing little to advance national security interests in a meaningful way.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2018/11/28/emerging-tech-export-controls-run-amok/feed/ 2 76421 Nationalizing 5G networks? Why that’s a bad idea. https://techliberation.com/2018/01/29/nationalizing-5g-networks-why-thats-a-bad-idea/ https://techliberation.com/2018/01/29/nationalizing-5g-networks-why-thats-a-bad-idea/#comments Mon, 29 Jan 2018 17:49:39 +0000 https://techliberation.com/?p=76227

There was a bold, bizarre proposal published by Axios yesterday that includes leaked documents by a “senior National Security Council official” for accelerating 5G deployment in the US. “5G” refers to the latest generation of wireless technologies, whose evolving specifications are being standardized by global telecommunications companies as we speak. The proposal highlights some reasonable concerns–the need for secure networks, the deleterious slowness in getting wireless infrastructure permits from thousands of municipalities and counties–but recommends an unreasonable solution–a government-operated, nationwide wireless network.

The proposal to nationalize some 5G equipment and network components needs to be nipped in the bud. It relies on the dated notion that centralized government management outperforms “wasteful competition.” It’s infeasible and would severely damage the US telecom and Internet sector, one of the brightest spots in the US economy. The plan will likely go nowhere but the fact it’s being circulated by administration officials is alarming.

First, a little context. In 1927, the US nationalized all radiofrequency spectrum, and for decades the government rations out dribbles of spectrum for commercial use (though much has improved since liberalization in the 1990s). To this day all spectrum is nationalized and wireless companies operate at sufferance. What this new document proposes is to make a poor situation worse.

In particular, the presentation proposes to re-nationalize 500 MHz of spectrum (the 3.7 GHz to 4.2 GHz band, which contains mostly satellite and government incumbents) and build wireless equipment and infrastructure across the country to transmit on this band. The federal government would act as a wholesaler to the commercial networks (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Sprint, etc.), who would sell retail wireless plans to consumers and businesses.

The justification for nationalizing a portion of 5G networks has a national security component and an economic component: prevent Chinese spying and beat China in the “5G race.”

The announced goals are simultaneously broad and narrow, and at severe tension.

The plan is broad in that it contemplates nationalizing part of the 5G equipment and network. However, it’s narrow in that it would nationalize only a portion of the 5G network (3.7 GHz to 4.2 GHz) and not other portions (like 600 MHz and 28 GHz). This undermines the national security purpose (assuming it’s even feasible to protect the nationalized portion) since 5G networks interconnect. It’d be like having government checkpoints on Interstate 95 but leaving all other interstates checkpoint-free.

Further, the document author misunderstands the evolutionary nature of 5G networks. 5G for awhile will be an overlay on the existing 4G LTE network, not a brand-new parallel network, as the NSC document assumes. 5G equipment will be installed on 4G LTE infrastructure in neighborhoods where capacity is strained. As Sherif Hanna, director of the 5G team at Qualcomm, noted on Twitter, in fact, “the first version of the 5G [standard]…by definition requires an existing 4G radio and core network.”

https://twitter.com/sherifhanna/status/957891843533946880

The most implausible idea in the document is a nationwide 5G network could be deployed in the next few years. Environmental and historic preservation review in a single city can take longer than that. (AT&T has battled NIMBYs and local government in San Francisco for a decade, for instance, to install a few hundred utility boxes on the public right-of-way.) The federal government deploying and maintaining hundreds of thousands 5G installations in two years from scratch is a pipe dream. And how to pay for it? The “Financing” section in the document says nothing about how the federal government will find tens of billions of dollars for nationwide deployment of a government 5G network.

The plan to nationalize a portion of 5G wireless networks and deploy nationwide is unwise and unrealistic. It would permanently damage the US broadband industry, it would antagonize city and state officials, it would raise serious privacy and First Amendment concerns, and it would require billions of new tax dollars to deploy. The released plan would also fail to ensure the network security it purports to protect. US telecom companies are lining up to pay the government for spectrum and to invest private dollars to build world-class 5G networks. If the federal government wants to accelerate 5G deployment, it should sell more spectrum and redirect existing government funding towards roadside infrastructure. Network security is a difficult problem but nationalizing networks is overkill.

Already, four out of five [update: all five] FCC commissioners have come out strongly against this plan. Someone reading the NSC proposal would get the impression that the US is sitting still while China is racing ahead on 5G. The US has unique challenges but wireless broadband deployment is probably the FCC’s highest priority. The Commission is aware of the permitting problems and formed the Broadband Deployment Advisory Committee in part for that very purpose (I’m a member). The agency, in cooperation with the Department of Commerce, is also busy looking for more spectrum to release for 5G.

Recode is reporting that White House officials are already distancing the White House from the proposal. Hopefully they will publicly reject the plan soon.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2018/01/29/nationalizing-5g-networks-why-thats-a-bad-idea/feed/ 2 76227 Jack Schinasi on global privacy regulation https://techliberation.com/2014/01/21/schinasi/ https://techliberation.com/2014/01/21/schinasi/#respond Tue, 21 Jan 2014 15:01:15 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=74128

Jack Schinasi discusses his recent working paper, Practicing Privacy Online: Examining Data Protection Regulations Through Google’s Global Expansion published in the Columbia Journal of Transnational Law. Schinasi takes an in-depth look at how online privacy laws differ across the world’s biggest Internet markets — specifically the United States, the European Union and China. Schinasi discusses how we exchange data for services and whether users are aware they’re making this exchange. And, if not, should intermediaries like Google be mandated to make its data tracking more apparent? Or should we better educate Internet users about data sharing and privacy? Schinasi also covers whether privacy laws currently in place in the US and EU are effective, what types of privacy concerns necessitate regulation in these markets, and whether we’ll see China take online privacy more seriously in the future.

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]]> https://techliberation.com/2014/01/21/schinasi/feed/ 0 74128 Book Review: Ronald Deibert’s “Black Code: Inside the Battle for Cyberspace” https://techliberation.com/2013/07/16/book-review-ronald-deiberts-black-code-inside-the-battle-for-cyberspace/ https://techliberation.com/2013/07/16/book-review-ronald-deiberts-black-code-inside-the-battle-for-cyberspace/#comments Tue, 16 Jul 2013 13:01:57 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=45184

Black Code coverRonald J. Deibert is the director of The Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and the author of an important new book, Black Code: Inside the Battle for Cyberspace, an in-depth look at the growing insecurity of the Internet. Specifically, Deibert’s book is a meticulous examination of the “malicious threats that are growing from the inside out” and which “threaten to destroy the fragile ecosystem we have come to take for granted.” (p. 14) It is also a remarkably timely book in light of the recent revelations about NSA surveillance and how it is being facilitated with the assistance of various tech and telecom giants.

The clear and colloquial tone that Deibert employs in the text helps make arcane Internet security issues interesting and accessible. Indeed, some chapters of the book almost feel like they were pulled from the pages of techno-thriller, complete with villainous characters, unexpected plot twists, and shocking conclusions. “Cyber crime has become one of the world’s largest growth businesses,” Deibert notes (p. 144) and his chapters focus on many prominent recent examples, including cyber-crime syndicates like Koobface, government cyber-spying schemes like GhostNet, state-sanctioned sabotage like Stuxnet, and the vexing issue of zero-day exploit sales.

Deibert is uniquely qualified to narrate this tale not just because he is a gifted story-teller but also because he has had a front row seat in the unfolding play that we might refer to as “How Cyberspace Grew Less Secure.” Indeed, he and his colleagues at The Citizen Lab have occasionally been major players in this drama as they have researched and uncovered various online vulnerabilities affecting millions of people across the globe. (I have previously reviewed and showered praise on a couple important books that Deibert co-edited with scholars from The Citizen Lab and Harvard’s Berkman Center, including: Access Controlled: The Shaping of Power, Rights, and Rule in Cyberspace and Access Denied: The Practice and Policy of Global Internet Filtering. They are truly outstanding resources worthy of your attention.)

Black Code’s Many Meanings

So, what is “black code” and why should we be worried about it? Deibert uses the term as a metaphor for many closely related concerns. Most generally it includes “that which is hidden, obscured from the view of the average Internet user.” (p. 6) More concretely, it refers to “the criminal forces that are increasingly insinuating themselves into cyberspace, gradually subverting it from the inside out.” (p. 7) “Those who take advantage of the Internet’s vulnerabilities today are not just juvenile pranksters or frat house brats,” Deibert notes, “they are organized criminal groups, armed militants, and nation states.” (p. 7-8) Which leads to the final way Deibert uses the term “black code.” It also, he says, “refers to the growing influence of national security agencies, and the expanding network of contractors and companies with whom they work.” (p. 8)

Deibert is worried about the way these forces and factors are working together to undermine online stability and security, and even delegitimize liberal democracy itself. His thesis is probably most succinctly captured in this passage from Chapter 7:

We live in an era of unprecedented access to information, and many political parties campaign on platforms of transparency and openness. And yet, at the same time, we are gradually shifting the policing of cyberspace to a dark world largely free from public accountability and independent oversight. In entrusting more and more information to third parties, we are signing away legal protections that should be guaranteed by those who have our data. Perversely, in liberal democratic countries we are lowering the standards around basic rights to privacy just as the center of cyberspace gravity is shifting to less democratic parts of the world. (p. 130-1)

What Deibert is grappling with in this book is the same fundamental problem that has long plagued the Internet: How do you preserve the benefits associated with the most open and interconnected “network of networks” the world has ever known while also remedying the various vulnerabilities and pathologies created by that same openness and interconnectedness?  Deibert acknowledges this problem, noting:

Ever since the Internet emerged from the world of academia into the world of the rest of us, its growth trajectory has been shadowed by a grey economy that thrives on opportunities for enrichment made possible by an open, globally connected infrastructure. (p. 141)

The Paradox of the Net’s Open, Interconnected Nature

Again, paradoxically, this inherent instability and vulnerability is due precisely to the Net’s open and globally interconnected nature. And many governments are looking to exploit that fact. “These unfortunate by-products of an open, dynamic network are exacerbated by increasing assertions of state power,” Deibert notes. (p. 233)

More generally, this uncomfortable fact—that the Net’s open, interconnected nature leads to both enormous benefits as well as huge vulnerabilities—isn’t just true for criminal online activity or the cyber-espionage activities that various nation-states are pursuing today. It is equally true for everything online today. There is a sort of yin and the yang to the Net that is simply undeniable and completely unavoidable. For one issue after another we find that the Net’s greatest blessing—its open, interconnected nature—is also its greatest curse.

For example, as I noted here recently in my review of Abraham H. Foxman and Christopher Wolf ‘s new book, Viral Hate: Containing Its Spread on the Internet, the open and interconnected Internet gives us “the most widely accessible, unrestricted communications platform the world has ever known” but also  means we have to tolerate a great many imbeciles “who use it to spew insulting, vile, and hateful comments.” The same is true for other types of online speech and content: You have access to an abundance of informational riches, but there’s also no avoiding all the garbage out there now, too.

Similarly, as I noted in my essay, “Privacy as an Information Control Regime: The Challenges Ahead,” the open and interconnected Internet has given us historically unparalleled platforms for social interaction and commerce. But that same openness and interconnectedness has left us with a world of hyper-exposure and a variety of privacy and surveillance threats—not just from governments and large corporations, but also from each other.

And then there’s the never-ending story of digital copyright. On one hand, the open and globally interconnected network or networks has provided us with an amazing platform for sharing knowledge, art, and expression. On the other hand, as I noted in this essay on “The Twilight of Copyright,” creators of expressive works have less security than ever before in terms of how they can control and monetize their artistic and scientific inventions.

I could go on and on—as I did in my essays on “Copyright, Privacy, Property Rights & Information Control: Common Themes, Common Challenges” and “When It Comes to Information Control, Everybody Has a Pet Issue & Everyone Will Be Disappointed”—but the moral of the story is pretty clear: The Internet giveth and the Internet taketh away. Openness and interconnectedness offer us enormous benefits but also force us to confront major risks as the price of admission to this wonderful network.

Will the Whole System Collapse?

The uncomfortable question that Deibert’s book tees up for discussion is: When will this balance get completely out of whack in terms of online security? Or, has it already? In some portions of the text, he hints that may already be the case. Consider this passage in Chapter 11 in which Deibert discusses whether the Chicken Little-ism of digital security worry-warts like Eugene Kaspersky and Richard Clarke is warranted:

Eugene Kaspersky, Richard Clarke, and others may sound like broken records or self-serving fear mongers, but there is no denying the evolving cyberspace ecosystem around us: we are building a digital edifice for the entire planet, and it sits above us like a house of cards. We are wrapping ourselves in expanding layers of digital instructions, protocols, and authentication mechanisms, some them open scrutinized, and regulated, but many closed, amorphous, and poised for abuse, buried in the black arts of espionage, intelligence gathering, and cyber and military affairs. Is it only a matter of time before the whole system collapses? (p. 186)

That sounds horrific, but is it really the case that the entire system really about to collapse? And, if so, what are we going to do about it?

This raises a small problem with Deibert’s book. He does such a nice job itemizing and describing these security vulnerabilities that by the time the reader wades through 230 pages and nears the end of the book, they are left in a highly demoralized state, searching for some hope and a concrete set of practical solutions. Unfortunately, they won’t find an abundance of either in Deibert’s brief closing chapter, “Toward Distributed Security and Stewardship in Cyberspace.”

Don’t get me wrong; I agree with the general thrust of Deibert’s framework, which I describe below. The problem is that it is highly aspirational in nature and lacks specifics. Perhaps that is simply because there are no easy answers here. Digital security is damn hard and, as with most other online pathologies out there, no silver-bullet solutions exist.

Deibert notes that some government officials will seek to exploit those vulnerabilities—many of which they created themselves—to expand their authority over the Internet. “Faced with mounting problems and pressures to do something, too many policy-makers are tempted by extreme solutions,” he notes. (p. 234) He worries about “a movement towards clamp down” that would be “antithetical to the principles of liberal democratic government” by undermining checks and balances and accountability. (p. 235) In turn, this will undermine the “mixed common-pool resource” that is the current Internet.

Deibert’s alternative cyber security strategy to counter the push to “clamp down” is based on three interrelated notions or components:

  1. Principles of restraint or “mutual restraint”: “Securing cyberspace requires a reinforcement, rather than a relaxation, of restraint on power, including checks and balances on governments, law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and on the private sector,” he argues. (p. 239)
  2. “Distributed security”: “The Internet functions precisely because of the absence of centralized control, because of thousands of loosely coordinated monitoring mechanisms,” Deibert notes. “While these decentralized mechanisms are not perfect and can occasionally fail, they form the basis of a coherent distributed security strategy. Bottom-up, ‘grassroots’ solutions to the Internet’s security problems are consistent with principles of openness, avoid heavy-handedness, and provide checks and balances against the concentrations of power,” he observes. (p. 240)
  3. “Stewardship” which Deibert defines as “an ethic of responsible behavior in regard to shared resources” and which, he argues, “would moderate the dangerously escalating exercise of state power in cyberspace by defining limits and setting thresholds of accountability and mutual restraint.” (p. 243)

Again, as an aspirational vision statement this all generally sounds fairly sensible, but the details are lacking. I think Deibert would have been wise to spend a bit more time developing this alternative “bottom-up” vision of how online security should work and bolstering it with case studies.

Digital Security without Top-Down Controls

Luckily, as my Mercatus Center colleague Eli Dourado noted in an important June 2012 white paper, distributed security and stewardship strategies are already working reasonably well today. Dourado’s paper, “Internet Security Without Law: How Service Providers Create Order Online,” documented the many informal institutions that enforce network security norms on the Internet and shows how cooperation among a remarkably varied set of actors improves online security without extensive regulation or punishing legal liability. “These informal institutions carry out the functions of a formal legal system—they establish and enforce rules for the prevention, punishment, and redress of cybersecurity-related harms,” Dourado noted.

For example, a diverse array of computer security incident response teams (CSIRTs) operates around the globe and share their research and coordinate their responses to viruses and other online attacks. Individual Internet service providers (ISPs), domain name registrars, and hosting companies, work with these CSIRTs and other individuals and organizations to address security vulnerabilities. A growing market for private security consultants and software providers also competes to offer increasingly sophisticated suites of security products for businesses, households, and governments.

A great deal of security knowledge is also “crowd-sourced” today via online discussion forums and security blogs that feature contributions from experts and average users alike. University-based computer science and cyberlaw centers (like Citizen Lab) and experts have also helped by creating projects like “Stop Badware,” which originated at Harvard University but then grew into a broader non-profit organization with diverse financial support.

Dourado continues on in his paper to show how these informal, bottom-up efforts to coordinate security responses offer several advantages over top-down government solutions, such as administrative regulation or punishing liability regimes.

Dourado’s description of the ideal approach to online security is entirely consistent with Deibert’s vision in Black Code. In fact, Deibert notes, “It is important to remind ourselves that in spite of the threats, cyberspace runs well and largely without persistent disruption. On a technical level, this efficiency is founded on open and distributed networks of local engineers who share information as peers,” he observes. (p. 240) That is exactly right, but I wish Deibert would have spent more time discussing how this system works in practice today and how it can be tweaked and improved to head off the heavy-handed and very costly top-down solutions that we both dread.

Toward Resiliency

But there’s one other thing I wish Deibert would have explored in the book: resiliency, or how we have adapted to various cyber-vulnerabilities over time.

For example, in another recent Mercatus Center study entitled “Beyond Cyber Doom: Cyber Attack Scenarios and the Evidence of History,” Sean Lawson, an assistant professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Utah, has stressed the importance of resiliency as it pertains to cybersecurity and concerns about “cyberwar.” “Research by historians of technology, military historians, and disaster sociologists has shown consistently that modern technological and social systems are more resilient than military and disaster planners often assume,” he writes. “Just as more resilient technological systems can better respond in the event of failure, so too are strong social systems better able to respond in the event of disaster of any type.”

More generally, as I noted in my recent law review article on “technopanics” and “threat inflation” in information technology policy debates:

while it is certainly true that “more could be done” to secure networks and critical systems, panic is unwarranted because much is already being done to harden systems and educate the public about risks. Various digital attacks will continue, but consumers, companies, and others organizations are learning to cope and become more resilient in the face of those threats.

What Professor Lawson and I are getting at in our respective articles is that the ability of organizations, institutions, and individuals to bounce back from adversity is a frequently unheralded feature of various systems and that it deserves more serious study. (See Andrew Zolli and Ann Marie Healy’s nice book, Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back, for more on this general topic). In the context of online security, what is most remarkable to me is not that the Internet suffers from vulnerabilities due to its open and interconnected nature; it’s that we don’t suffer far more damage as a result.

This gets us back to that very profound question that Deibert poses in Black Code: “Is it only a matter of time before the whole system collapses?” The better question, I think, is: why hasn’t the system already collapsed? Perhaps the answer is, because things haven’t gotten bad enough yet. But I believe that the more realistic answer is that: individuals and institutions often learn how to cope and become resilient in the face of adversity. This is partially the case online because of the stewardship and distributed, decentralized security we already see at work today that makes digital life tolerable.

But it has to be something more than that. After all, many of the security problems that Deibert describes in his book are quite serious and already affect millions of us today. How, then, are we getting by right now? Again, I think the answer has to be that adaptation and resiliency are at work on many different levels of online life.

Consider, for example, how we have learned to deal with spam, viruses, online porn, various online advertising and privacy concerns, and so on. Our adaptation to these threats and annoyances has not been perfectly smooth, of course. No doubt, some people would still like “something to be done” about these things. But isn’t it remarkable how we have, nonetheless, carried on with online commerce and interactive social life even as these problems have persisted?

Conclusion

Going forward, therefore, perhaps there are some reasons for hope. Perhaps the various generic strategies that Deibert outlines in his book, coupled with the remarkable ability of humans to roll with the punches and adapt, will help us come out of this just fine (or at least reasonably well).

Of course, it could also be the case that these security concerns just multiply and that the Internet then morphs into sometime quite different than the interconnected “network of networks” we know today. As I noted in my 2009 essay on “Internet Security Concerns, Online Anonymity, and Splinternets,” we might be moving toward a world with more separate dis­connected digital networks and online “gated communities.” This could take place spontaneously over time and be driven by corporations seeking to satisfy the demand of some consumers for safer and more secure online experiences. As I noted in my review of Jonathan Zittrain’s book, The Future of the Internet, I am actually fine with some of that. I think we can live in a hybrid world of “walled gardens” alongside of the “Wild West” open Internet, so long as this occurs in a spontaneous, organic, bottom-up fashion. [For a more extensive discussion, see my book chapter, “The Case for Internet Optimism, Part 2 – Saving the Net From Its Supporters.”]

If, however, this “splintering” of the Net is done from the top-down through intentional (or even incidental) government action, then it is far more problematic. We already see signs, for example, that Russia is pushing even more strongly in that direction in the wake of the NSA leaks. (See “N.S.A. Leaks Revive Push in Russia to Control Net,” New York Times, July 14.) The Russians have been using amorphous security concerns to push for greater Internet control for some time now. Of course, China has been there for years. So have many Middle Eastern countries. Of course, there’s no guarantee that their respective “splinternets” are, or would be, any more secure than today’s Internet, but it sure would make those networks far more susceptible to state control and surveillance. If that’s our future, then it certainly is a dismal one.

Anyway, read Ron Deibert’s Black Code for an interesting exploration of these and other issues. It’s an excellent contribution to field of Internet policy studies and a book that I’ll be recommending to others for many years to come.

Additional resources:

Other books you should read alongside “Black Code” (links are for my reviews of each book):

]]> https://techliberation.com/2013/07/16/book-review-ronald-deiberts-black-code-inside-the-battle-for-cyberspace/feed/ 2 45184 Perry Keller on the relationship between the state and the media https://techliberation.com/2012/10/23/perry-keller-on-the-relationship-between-the-state-and-the-media/ https://techliberation.com/2012/10/23/perry-keller-on-the-relationship-between-the-state-and-the-media/#respond Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:00:33 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=42659

Perry Keller, Senior Lecturer at the Dickson Poon School of Law at King’s College London, and author of the recently released paper “Sovereignty and Liberty in the Internet Era,” discusses how the internet affects the relationship between the state and the media. According to Keller, media has played a formative role in the development of the modern state and, as it evolves, the way in which the state governs must change as well. However, that does not mean that there is a one-size-fits-all solution. In fact, as Keller demonstrates using real-world examples in the U.S., U.K., E.U., and China, the ways in which new media is governed can differ radically based upon the local legal and cultural environment.

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]]> https://techliberation.com/2012/10/23/perry-keller-on-the-relationship-between-the-state-and-the-media/feed/ 0 42659 Even Chinese Communists Understand the Fundamental “Law of Disruption” https://techliberation.com/2011/09/08/even-chinese-communists-understand-the-fundamental-law-of-disruption/ https://techliberation.com/2011/09/08/even-chinese-communists-understand-the-fundamental-law-of-disruption/#comments Thu, 08 Sep 2011 18:05:31 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=38311

I’ve reviewed many tech policy books here over the years, but have only found myself in agreement with a couple of titles. One of my favorites is “The Laws of Disruption” by fellow TLF co-blogger Larry Downes.  [My short review is here]  Larry does a terrific job documenting the technological forces (or “laws” as he calls them) that our reshaping the modern economy.

The fundamental law of disruption he identifies is: ” Technology changes exponentially, but social, economic, and legal systems change incrementally.” Downes says this law is “a simple but unavoidable principle of modern life” and that it will have profound implications for the way businesses, government, and culture evolve going forward. “As the gap between the old world and the new gets wider,” he argues, “conflicts between social, economic, political, and legal systems” will intensify and “nothing can stop the chaos that will follow.”  He’s exactly right and I’ll be elaborating on that “law” in more detail in a new paper with Jerry Brito as well as in my next book, which I’m finishing up currently.

Anyway, with Larry’s “law” in mind, I couldn’t help but laugh out loud when I was reading this Reuter‘s summary of a recent editorial from the People’s Daily, the main newspaper of China’s ruling Communist Party. The commentary lambasted the Internet, social networking technologies, and online culture. It contained this gem of quote that proves the Chinese government has a firm grasp of the Law of Disruption: “We have failed to take into sufficient account just how much the Internet is a double-edged sword, and have a problem of allowing technology to advance while administration and regulation lag.”

So, the Chinese certainly get it. Regrettably, they are not about to stop trying to control the Internet, social networking platforms, or digital technology. In fact, the editorial also noted that, “Unless administration is vigorous, criminal forces, hostile forces, terrorist organizations and others could manipulate public sentiment by manufacturing bogus opinion on the Internet, damaging social stability and national security.” Ah yes, all the old “safety and security” bogeymen. If we don’t have control, the sky will fall! Lots of people think that these days, not just Chinese commies. That pessimistic Chicken Littlism is exactly what my next book aims to debunk.

Instead of living in a state of denial about the Law of Disruption or, worse yet, actively ignoring by seeking to slow or control technological change, we should instead be embracing it and finding ways to cope and adjust to the new realities of a world ubiquitous connectivity and information abundance. Progress depends on it.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2011/09/08/even-chinese-communists-understand-the-fundamental-law-of-disruption/feed/ 4 38311 China Renews Google’s License https://techliberation.com/2010/07/09/china-renews-googles-license/ https://techliberation.com/2010/07/09/china-renews-googles-license/#comments Fri, 09 Jul 2010 20:57:07 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=30278

Today, China renewed Google’s license to do business in the country, reports The Washington Post. The announcement means that Google will maintain its presence in the country for the foreseeable future. Google will likely meet criticism, but this is good news nonetheless for Chinese Internet users.

The rapidly unfolding Google-China saga has made headline after headline since January, when Google announced that it had suffered an intrusion originating in China. In March, after months of internal debate and heavy public criticism, Google shut down its China-based search engine Google.cn, redirecting all queries to its Hong Kong-based Google.com.hk site. Late last month, Google reactivated some of its China-based services and has continued to operate in China, albeit on a limited basis.

Operating in China has long been a headache for Google, due to the Chinese government’s notorious disregard for Internet freedom, embodied by its infamous “Great Firewall of China.” China surveils all Internet traffic that traverses its borders and attempts to block its citizens from accessing information sources which the government considers unfavorable. China also gleans data from its network to identify and retaliate against political dissidents.

Human rights advocates have long derided Google and other U.S. tech companies, such as Microsoft and Yahoo, for doing business in China. China requires all search engines operating in the country to censor a broad range of information, like photos of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Critics contend that complying with the Chinese government’s oppressive demands is unethical and that facilitating censorship and suppression is morally unacceptable on its face.

Such criticisms, however principled, miss the forest for the trees. If Google were to cease its Chinese operations entirely, the result would be one less U.S. Internet firm accessible to Chinese citizens. While Google is the worldwide search leader, in the Chinese search market Google lags behind Baidu, a search company based in China. Baidu’s market share increased after Google shut down its China-based search site. If Google were to pull out of China entirely, chances are Baidu would pick up many more users.

Why is this troubling? Because Baidu has a long history of complying with the Chinese government’s demands, and has never publicly repudiated the regime’s oppressive practices.

American firms that operate in China do so begrudgingly, often repudiating the state’s human rights violations and, at times, even pushing back when they believe the government has gone too far. Google in particular has struggled over the ethical dilemma posed by China. Before 2005, Google had not formally entered the Chinese market at all, partially on human rights grounds. And after its servers were hacked from within China in late 2009, Google was reportedly on the verge of pulling out of China entirely.

The complicity of U.S. tech firms in China’s oppressive practices has also spurred attacks from politicians looking to score political points. At a recent hearing, Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) accused Microsoft of “enabling tyranny” in China. And Senator Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) is pushing for federal legislation to regulate the practices of U.S. companies that do business in non-democratic nations.

Such saber-rattling will only make problems worse. Undermining the autonomy of private U.S. corporations to make their own business decisions only discourages constructive business engagement with China. Worse, American politicians’ lambasting of China actually emboldens the Chinese regime, which plays upon nationalist sentiments to garner public support.

American businesses, on the other hand, are in a far better position to criticize Chinese censorship. Google and Microsoft are household names in China. And it is far more difficult for the Chinese government to demonize American technology firms than the U.S. government.

Yes, China has a horrendous human rights record, but it isn’t the only nation in the world whose government routinely tramples human rights. In the flawed world we live in, to expect businesses to operate only in nations that truly respect their citizens’ human rights is wishful thinking. Neither Google nor any other American company enjoys facilitating Chinese oppression. But given the available alternatives, is pulling out really a superior option? Is relegating Chinese citizens to patronizing solely Chinese firms actually conducive to improving human rights?

In the long run, disengaging China will not encourage its government to grant greater political freedoms to its people. Commerce between the U.S. and China facilitates wealth creation and opens up new economic opportunities in both countries. In China, that new wealth, along with corresponding new opportunities, help expand the country’s middle class, bringing subsistence farmers into cities and, thus, closer to the global economy.

For China to become a politically and economically freer nation, a sizable middle class is a crucial factor. While Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo may not seem to be making China any freer now, they can only help in the long run.

Today, China renewed Google’s license to do business in the country, reports The Washington Post. The announcement means that Google will maintain its presence in the country for the foreseeable future. Google will likely meet criticism, but this is good news nonetheless for Chinese Internet users.

The rapidly unfolding Google-China saga has made headline after headline since January, when Google announced that it had suffered an intrusion originating in China. In March, after months of internal debate and heavy public criticism, Google shut down its China-based search engine Google.cn, redirecting all queries to its Hong Kong-based Google.com.hk site. Late last month, Google reactivated some of its China-based services and has continued to operate in China, albeit on a limited basis.

Operating in China has long been a headache for Google, due to the Chinese government’s notorious disregard for Internet freedom, embodied by its infamous “Great Firewall of China.” China surveils all Internet traffic that traverses its borders and attempts to block its citizens from accessing information sources which the government considers unfavorable. China also gleans data from its network to identify and retaliate against political dissidents.

Human rights advocates have long derided Google and other U.S. tech companies, such as Microsoft and Yahoo, for doing business in China. China requires all search engines operating in the country to censor a broad range of information, like photos of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Critics contend that complying with the Chinese government’s oppressive demands is unethical and that facilitating censorship and suppression is morally unacceptable on its face.

Such criticisms, however principled, miss the forest for the trees. If Google were to cease its Chinese operations entirely, the result would be one less U.S. Internet firm accessible to Chinese citizens. While Google is the worldwide search leader, in the Chinese search market Google lags behind Baidu, a search company based in China. Baidu’s market share increased after Google shut down its China-based search site. If Google were to pull out of China entirely, chances are Baidu would pick up many more users.

Why is this troubling? Because Baidu has a long history of complying with the Chinese government’s demands, and has never publicly repudiated the regime’s oppressive practices.

American firms that operate in China do so begrudgingly, often repudiating the state’s human rights violations and, at times, even pushing back when they believe the government has gone too far. Google in particular has struggled over the ethical dilemma posed by China. Before 2005, Google had not formally entered the Chinese market at all, partially on human rights grounds. And after its servers were hacked from within China in late 2009, Google was reportedly on the verge of pulling out of China entirely.

The complicity of U.S. tech firms in China’s oppressive practices has also spurred attacks from politicians looking to score political points. At a recent hearing, Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) accused Microsoft of “enabling tyranny” in China. And Senator Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) is pushing for federal legislation to regulate the practices of U.S. companies that do business in non-democratic nations.

Such saber-rattling will only make problems worse. Undermining the autonomy of private U.S. corporations to make their own business decisions only discourages constructive business engagement with China. Worse, American politicians’ lambasting of China actually emboldens the Chinese regime, which plays upon nationalist sentiments to garner public support.

American businesses, on the other hand, are in a far better position to criticize Chinese censorship. Google and Microsoft are household names in China. And it is far more difficult for the Chinese government to demonize American technology firms than the U.S. government.

Yes, China has a horrendous human rights record, but it isn’t the only nation in the world whose government routinely tramples human rights. In the flawed world we live in, to expect businesses to operate only in nations that truly respect their citizens’ human rights is wishful thinking. Neither Google nor any other American company enjoys facilitating Chinese oppression. But given the available alternatives, is pulling out really a superior option? Is relegating Chinese citizens to patronizing solely Chinese firms actually conducive to improving human rights?

In the long run, disengaging China will not encourage its government to grant greater political freedoms to its people. Commerce between the U.S. and China facilitates wealth creation and opens up new economic opportunities in in both countries. In China, that new wealth, along with corresponding new opportunities, help expand the country’s middle class, bringing subsistence farmers into cities and, thus, closer to the global economy.

For China to become a politically and economically freer nation, a sizable middle class is a crucial factor. While Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo may not seem to be making China any freer now, they can only help in the long run.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2010/07/09/china-renews-googles-license/feed/ 9 30278 How Scott Cleland and the Zodiac Killer are Alike https://techliberation.com/2010/03/30/how-scott-cleland-and-the-zodiac-killer-are-alike/ https://techliberation.com/2010/03/30/how-scott-cleland-and-the-zodiac-killer-are-alike/#comments Wed, 31 Mar 2010 03:08:41 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=27749

Ever since he’s been blogging, Scott Cleland’s blogging has been in overdrive. However, anyone willing to look behind the curtain of his latest post will discover that many of the attributes of Scott Cleland are attributes that are shared by the Zodiac Killer.

  • First, Scott Cleland, like the Zodiac Killer, has a face. Eyes, nose, mouth—they’re all there. They are alike in this respect—Scott Cleland and the Zodiac Killer are both, unrepentantly, people with faces.
  • Second, Scott Cleland, like the Zodiac Killer, speaks English. We know this from his blog posts—which are written in English—the same language the Zodiac killer used during his murderous spree in the San Francisco Bay Area between December 1968 and October 1969.
  • Third, delving more deeply into the language of the Zodiac Killer and Scott Cleland, both use articles like “the”; “a”; and “an”. An equal propensity to use prepositions inhabits the writing styles of Scott Cleland and the Zodiac Killer.
  • Fourth, like the top suspect in the Zodiac Killer case, DNA evidence does not implicate Scott Cleland. Diabolically, he has done nothing to indicate his participation in these crimes.

(Dropping the imitative send-up) Scott’s recent post implicating Google as similar to China is probably best described as conflation, a logical fallacy in which similarities between two distinct entities collapse them together.

Scott has many similarities to the Zodiac Killer, but lacks the one that matters: he never killed anybody.

Likewise, Google has many similarities with the Chinese government—all organizations do—but it lacks the one that matters: Google makes no claim to exclusive power to initiate force. That is the hallmark of government which is what makes government so dangerous. Related: Unlike China, Google never killed anybody.

In the struggle between Google and China, there is no moral equivalency. China oppresses a billion people. Google enlightens.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2010/03/30/how-scott-cleland-and-the-zodiac-killer-are-alike/feed/ 8 27749 Ethan Zuckerman on internet censorship and the limits of circumvention https://techliberation.com/2010/03/08/ethan-zuckerman-on-internet-censorship-and-the-limits-of-circumvention/ https://techliberation.com/2010/03/08/ethan-zuckerman-on-internet-censorship-and-the-limits-of-circumvention/#respond Mon, 08 Mar 2010 20:21:10 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=26920

Just a heads up that on my weekly tech policy podcast, Surprisingly Free Conversations, we’ve just posted an interview with Ethan Zuckerman of Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet & Society. He recently published an excellent blog post on the limits to internet censorship circumvention technologies, and that’s the topic of our discussion. Ethan writes,

So here’s a provocation: We can’t circumvent our way around internet censorship. I don’t mean that internet censorship circumvention systems don’t work. They do – our research tested several popular circumvention tools in censored nations and discovered that most can retrieve blocked content from behind the Chinese firewall or a similar system. (There are problems with privacy, data leakage, the rendering of certain types of content, and particularly with usability and performance, but the systems can circumvent censorship.) What I mean is this – we couldn’t afford to scale today’s existing circumvention tools to “liberate” all of China’s internet users even if they all wanted to be liberated.

You can listed to this episode here, and you can subscribe to the show on iTunes or RSS.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2010/03/08/ethan-zuckerman-on-internet-censorship-and-the-limits-of-circumvention/feed/ 0 26920 Misdirected Blame on Internet Companies for Failures in International Affairs & China https://techliberation.com/2010/03/03/misdirected-blame-on-internet-companies-for-failures-in-international-affairs-china/ https://techliberation.com/2010/03/03/misdirected-blame-on-internet-companies-for-failures-in-international-affairs-china/#comments Wed, 03 Mar 2010 18:47:48 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=26682

“With a few notable exceptions, the tech industry seems unwilling to regulate itself. I will introduce legislation that will require Internet companies to take reasonable steps to protect human rights, or face civil and criminal liability.” – Senator Dick Durbin, as reported by the Washington Post.

We hear you, Sen. Durbin. The practices of many nations toward free speech and political dissidents are terribly wrong. But we respectfully and strongly disagree with your statements at yesterday’s Senate Judiciary hearing on global Internet freedom and the rule of law.

The growth of IT companies throughout the world has been an enormous boon to free speech and human rights. Although these technologies present new challenges, particularly when taken together with widely varying laws, they are doing far more good than harm, everywhere that they are deployed.

But if you attended the hearing and knew nothing about the Internet, you’d think that American online companies doing business in China and elsewhere were pure evil – as if they were the ones with the power to not comply with – or change — the criminal laws of other nations.

In particular, Facebook and Twitter were called out for not joining the Global Network Initiative (GNI). The product of more than two years of study and development by companies and public interest groups, the Initiative offers a set of guiding principles for global IT companies doing business in an increasingly global environment.

But while the GNI exposes online companies to new scrutiny, it doesn’t provide any protection from aggressive governments. And at a price tag of $200,000, the GNI isn’t cheap. How effective will it be, really, at changing the practices of totalitarian nations? This is the real goal, and it seems that the best way to achieve this is through diplomacy among governments, not by deputizing online companies to be our State Department.

Which brings us to the real question (first raised in this NY Times LTE): In a China with no American content or online services, will the goals of free speech and civil rights be better served? We’re right to focus on the human rights abuses of other nations and how online companies can better promote free expression, but let’s place the object of the scorn where it truly belongs.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2010/03/03/misdirected-blame-on-internet-companies-for-failures-in-international-affairs-china/feed/ 5 26682 The Irony of Mandatory Filtering in China vs. the U.S. https://techliberation.com/2009/09/15/the-irony-of-mandatory-filtering-in-china-vs-the-u-s/ https://techliberation.com/2009/09/15/the-irony-of-mandatory-filtering-in-china-vs-the-u-s/#comments Tue, 15 Sep 2009 20:31:58 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=21538

“Schools in Beijing are quietly removing the Green Dam filter, which was required for all school computers in July, due to complaints over problems with the software,” notes this Reuters report. Even though China backed down on their earlier requirement to have the Green Dam filter installed on all computers, according to Reuters “schools were still ordered by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to install the web filter, which Chinese officials said would block pornography and other unhealthy content.”  The Reuters article mentions a notice carried on the home page of one Beijing high school that reads: “We will remove all Green Dam software from computers in the school as it has strong conflicts with teaching software we need for normal work.”  The article also cites a school technology director, who confirmed that the software had been taken off most computers, as saying “It has seriously influenced our normal work.”

Ironically, many educators and librarians in the United States can sympathize since they currently live under similar requirements.  Under the Children’s Internet Protection Act (CIPA) of 2000, publicly funded schools and libraries must implement a mandatory filtering scheme or run the risk of losing their funding. As the Federal Communications Commission summarizes:

[CIPA] imposes certain types of requirements on any school or library that receives funding for Internet access or internal connections from the E-rate program… Schools and libraries subject to CIPA may not receive the discounts offered by the E-rate program unless they certify that they have an Internet safety policy and technology protection measures in place. An Internet safety policy must include technology protection measures to block or filter Internet access to pictures that are: (a) are obscene, (b) child pornography, or (c) harmful to minors (for computers that are accessed by minors).

Of course, nobody wants kids viewing porn in schools, but CIPA has been know the block far more than that and has become a real pain for many educators, librarians, and school administrators who have to occasionally get around these filters to teach their students about legitimate subjects. Anyway, I just find it ironic that some American lawmakers have been making a beef about mandatory Internet filtering by the Chinese when we have our own mandatory filtering regime right here in the states. For example, back in late June, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke and U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk sent a joint letter to their Chinese counterparts “urging China to revoke a proposed rule (Circular 226) that would mandate that all computers produced and sold in China pre-install a widely-criticized Chinese Internet filtering program called Green Dam.”  Meanwhile, a congressional resolution was introduced by Rep. David Wu (H.Res. 590) “expressing grave concerns about the sweeping censorship, privacy, and cybersecurity implications of China’s Green Dam filtering software, and urging U.S. high-tech companies to promote the Internet as a tool for transparency, freedom of expression, and citizen empowerment around the world.”

These policymakers are correct to fear government-directed filtering schemes, but why isn’t anyone mentioning the filtering mandates we already have on the books right here in the United States?

]]> https://techliberation.com/2009/09/15/the-irony-of-mandatory-filtering-in-china-vs-the-u-s/feed/ 11 21538 What Unites Advocates of Speech Controls & Privacy Regulation? https://techliberation.com/2009/08/11/what-unites-advocates-of-speech-controls-privacy-regulation/ https://techliberation.com/2009/08/11/what-unites-advocates-of-speech-controls-privacy-regulation/#comments Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:31:04 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=20255

What Unites Advocates of Speech Controls & Privacy Regulation? [pdf]

by Adam Thierer & Berin Szoka The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Progress on Point No. 16.19

Anyone who has spent time following debates about speech and privacy regulation comes to recognize the striking parallels between these two policy arenas. In this paper we will highlight the common rhetoric, proposals, and tactics that unite these regulatory movements. Moreover, we will argue that, at root, what often animates calls for regulation of both speech and privacy are two remarkably elitist beliefs:

  1. People are too ignorant (or simply too busy) to be trusted to make wise decisions for themselves (or their children); and/or,
  2. All or most people share essentially the same values or concerns and, therefore, “community standards” should trump household (or individual) standards.

While our use of the term “elitism” may unduly offend some understandably sensitive to populist demagoguery, our aim here is not to launch a broadside against elitism as Time magazine culture critic William H. Henry once defined it: “The willingness to assert unyieldingly that one idea, contribution or attainment is better than another.”[1] Rather, our aim here is to critique that elitism which rises to the level of political condescension and legal sanction. We attack not so much the beliefs of some leaders, activists, or intellectuals that they have a better idea of what it in the public’s best interest than the public itself does, but rather the imposition of those beliefs through coercive, top-down mandates.

That sort of elitism—elitism enforced by law—is often the objective of speech and privacy regulatory advocates. Our goal is to identify the common themes that unite these regulatory movements, explain why such political elitism is unwarranted, and make it clear how it threatens individual liberty as well as the future of free and open Internet. As an alternative to this elitist vision, we advocate an empowerment agenda: fostering an environment in which users have the tools and information they need to make decisions for themselves and their families.

I. The Elitism of Speech Regulation

First, consider how those two elitist beliefs identified above are on display when lawmakers or regulatory advocates make efforts to control speech or content.[2] Calls to regulate free speech are often premised on the belief that something must be done to “protect The Children.”[3] Personal and parental responsibility [4] are regarded as inadequate safeguards [5] since some parents will inevitably fall down on the job by not adequately shielding their children’s eyes and ears from potentially objectionable (or supposedly harmful) speech. Therefore, government must regulate content that is indecent, profane, excessively violent, and so on. The definition of those things is then left to unelected bureaucrats and judges to make on our behalf.

But it’s not just about “The Children.” Some regulatory advocates believe that even the choices made by consenting adults must be disregarded because some people fail to understand the supposedly destructive nature of the speech they are consuming. Government must act to protect people from making what some regulatory advocates regard as destructive or even immoral choices that could bring harm to them or their loved ones.

In sum, regulatory advocates are essentially saying that people cannot be trusted or left to their own devices and, therefore, government must intervene and establish a baseline “community standard” on behalf of the entire citizenry to tell them what‘s best for them.[6] Even if those citizens have tools and information at their disposal to make sensible decisions about objectionable content, that’s not good enough because they might not do the job properly. Government must do it for them!

II. The Elitism of Privacy Regulation

This same mentality motivates calls for privacy regulations. Those who call for government interventions to “protect privacy” often claim that people too willingly surrender personal information about themselves and that they don’t understand the adverse consequences of those actions.[7] Alternatively, regulatory advocates claim that advertising and marketing efforts are inherently “manipulative” and that people do not realize they are being duped into surrendering personal information or into buying products or services they supposedly don’t need.[8] Of course, those regulatory advocates rarely pause to explain to us how it is that they were not also duped and manipulated by the same things—again revealing their deeply-rooted elitism! (As discussed below, this makes it clear how the psychological phenomenon of “third-person effect hypothesis” is driving much of this debate.)

“Protecting The Children” is also used as a rhetorical cover for regulation here, but not as often in debates over speech controls.[9] Instead, regulatory advocates mostly focus on adults who are presumed not to know what is in their own best interest—necessitating paternalistic government intervention on their behalf.

III. Intellectual Schizophrenia on Both the Left & Right

What is particularly interesting about all this is the way these two issues expose a sort of intellectual schizophrenia at work on both the Left and Right of the political spectrum. Left-leaning policymakers and intellectuals typically decry censorship efforts (except where “commercial speech,” “hate speech” and “bias” are at issue), but are quick to rally around proposals to layer privacy regulations on the Internet. The opposite is often true of many on the Right of the political spectrum: They typically declare privacy regulations to be paternalistic and antithetical to free enterprise (or perhaps just erosive of efforts to legislate morality),[10] but in the next breath advocate controls on content they find objectionable.

Few on either side stop to consider the relationship between speech and privacy. In fact, they are but two sides of the same coin. After all, what is your “right to privacy” but a right to stop me from observing you and speaking about you?[11] “Protecting privacy,” therefore, typically means restricting speech rights in the process. Advocates of privacy regulation often insist that the use, processing and collection of information are “conduct” unprotected by the First Amendment, but in fact, the First Amendment broadly protects the gathering and distribution of information as part of the process of communication (“speech”).[12] Similarly, attempts to “clean up” speech or “protect The Children,” often require regulations that would betray the privacy of adults by expanding the role of government, and impose serious burdens on businesses and markets—such as age verification mandates [13] or extensive data retention requirements.[14]

IV. Common Tactics & Regulatory Mechanisms

The two movements also share common political tactics and regulatory approaches. Privacy advocates generally favor “opt-in” mandates as the federal “baseline standard” for any website collecting information about users, especially their browsing habits (regardless of whether the information is “personally identifiable”). In other words, the law would create a property right in such “personal information” (ironically, many advocates of this approach criticize or reject intellectual property.) In a similar vein, many advocates of speech controls push for mandatory parental control tools or restrictive default settings.[15] That is, if government won’t censor speech outright, regulatory advocates want lawmakers to at least (1) require that media, computing and communications devices be shipped to market with parental controls embedded or included (as proposed in Australia and with China’s “Green Dam” filter),[16] and possibly, (2) that such controls be defaulted to their most restrictive position—forcing users to opt-out of the controls later if they want to consume media rated above a certain threshold.

More sophisticated advocates of speech controls and privacy regulation will likely argue that their paternalism is less elitist or intrusive because they merely want to “nudge” the public into making “better” decisions. Economist Richard Thaler and legal scholar Cass Sunstein (director of President Obama’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, responsible for analyzing most new federal regulations) popularized this approach with their 2008 book Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness. Based on behavioral economics studies, they argue that both government and private actors must inevitably make decisions about “choice architecture” and that, by setting defaults, incentives and rules smartly, “choice architects” can and should improve decision-making without blocking, fencing-off or significantly burdening choices.[17]

In this regard, Sunstein and Thaler’s approach parallels the work of Lawrence Lessig, one of the most influential Internet policy thinkers. Lessig has argued that the “architecture” of “code” (how software is written) “regulates” all online activities and requires government oversight and intervention to keep in check. Otherwise, he warned ominously a decade ago, “Left to itself, cyberspace will become a perfect tool of control.”[18] Lessig’s hyper-pessimistic predictions have proven unwarranted, however. Far from fostering a world of “perfect control,” code and cyberspace have proven remarkably difficult to regulate, but nonetheless has generally benefited consumers and citizens without centralized direction.[19] Still, Lessig, Sunstein, and others of this ilk persist in their advocacy of “nudges” of many varieties to impose their will on cyberspace through mandates from above.

But while it might be possible to define “better decisions” and argue that poor choice architecture leads people to choose things they clearly don’t want in contexts like investment decisions and mortgages, how can elites know what other people really want in highly subjective contexts like privacy and speech? Should they rely on opinion polls—the highly subjective results of which depend heavily on “choice architecture” of question-crafting—to guess what the right default should be?[20] Was the Chinese proposal to mandate deployment of “Green Dam” just a harmless “nudge” because users weren’t barred from uninstalling the filtering software that must accompany their computers (i.e., “opting-out”)? The problem becomes even more difficult where trade-offs among competing values are inevitable. For example, data collection about Internet users raises privacy concerns for some but benefits all, creating more funding for “free” content (i.e., speech) and services users prefer by making more valuable the advertising that supports online publishers. In short, regulations of speech and privacy are likely to be pure paternalism, even when billed as “libertarian paternalism as Thaler and Sunstein label their approach.[21]

What might be called “regulatory blackmail” is also a time-honored tradition among both advocates of speech controls and privacy regulation. When censorship advocates have previously been impeded by the First Amendment, they have worked behind the scenes with lawmakers or regulatory agencies to use indirect pressure and strong-arming tactics to extract “voluntary concessions” from companies or others.[22] For example, in 2004, the FCC strong-armed radio giant Clear Channel into agreeing to a “voluntary” consent decree that involved taking Howard Stern off the air.[23] Similarly, in 2008, XM and Sirius Satellite Radio finally agreed to set aside 4% of their system capacity for use by politically favored racial minorities (a kind of speech control) as a “voluntary condition” of their merger—after the FCC had sat on their application for nearly 16 months.[24] This race-based preference would have been unconstitutional if the FCC had imposed it directly.[25] While the FTC has been far less prone to such abuse and actually plays a key role in holding companies to their promises, its current Chairman, Jon Leibowitz, has hung the “regulatory sword of Damocles” over the heads of the online advertising industry, threatening them with a “day of reckoning” if he doesn’t get what he wants from industry self-regulatory efforts.”[26] The sword could actually fall if the FTC turns self-regulation into the European model of “co-regulation,” where the government steers and industry simply rows.[27]

V. The Crisis Mentality that Drives Regulation

Speech and privacy regulatory advocates share another trait in common: an affinity for the use of a crisis mentality as a method of spurring political action. In his 1995 book The Vision of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Basis for Social Policy, political philosopher and economist Thomas Sowell formulated a model that he argued drives ideological crusades to expand government power over our lives and economy. “The great ideological crusades of the twentieth-century intellectuals have ranged across the most disparate fields,” noted Sowell. But what they all had in common, he argued, was “their moral exaltation of the anointed above others, who are to have their different views nullified and superseded by the views of the anointed, imposed via the power of government.”[28] These government-expanding crusades shared several key elements, which Sowell identified as follows:

  1. Assertion of a great danger to the whole society, a danger to which the masses of people are oblivious.
  2. An urgent need for government action to avert impending catastrophe.
  3. A need for government to drastically curtail the dangerous behavior of the many, in response to the prescient conclusions of the few.
  4. A disdainful dismissal of arguments to the contrary as either uninformed, irresponsible, or motivated by unworthy purposes.

We see this model at work on a daily basis today with our government’s various efforts to reshape our economy, but the model is equally applicable to debates over speech controls and privacy regulation. In particular, the various “technopanics”[29] we have witnessed in recent years fit this model. For example, consider how this model plays out in the debate over online social networking:

  1. Assertion of a great danger to the whole society [online sexual predators], a danger to which the masses of people are oblivious.
  2. An urgent need for government action [such as mandatory online age verification [30] or the Deleting Online Predators Act [31]] to avert impending catastrophe.
  3. A need for government to drastically curtail the dangerous behavior of the many [must stop kids and adults from being online together on same sites], in response to the prescient conclusions of the few [some state Attorneys General].[32]
  4. A disdainful dismissal of arguments to the contrary as either uninformed, irresponsible, or motivated by unworthy purposes [child safety researchers and others are told that their research is meaningless or offbase].[33]

We also see this model in play in other debates, such as efforts to regulate “excessively violent” video games and television programming.[34] And consider how this model plays out on the privacy front:

  1. Assertion of a great danger to the whole society [amorphous privacy violations], a danger to which the masses of people are oblivious.
  2. An urgent need for government action [“baseline federal privacy regulation”] to avert impending catastrophe.
  3. A need for government to drastically curtail the dangerous behavior of the many [anyone who shares information online], in response to the prescient conclusions of the few [a handful of privacy advocacy groups].
  4. A disdainful dismissal of arguments to the contrary as either uninformed, irresponsible, or motivated by unworthy purposes [any suggestion that privacy concerns are being overblown and that most information-sharing is socially beneficial is dismissed out-of-hand].

Worse yet, regulatory intervention in these cases simply begets more and more intervention to correct the inevitable failures of, or dissatisfaction with, previous interventions.[35] Thus, the “crisis” cycle never ends.

VI. Third-Person Effect Hypothesis as an Explanation

Something more profound than simple political elitism seems to be at work here, however. A phenomenon psychologists refer to as the “third-person effect hypothesis” can explain many calls for government intervention, especially in the media world.[36] Simply stated, speech and privacy critics sometimes seem to only see and hear in media or communications what they want to see and hear—or what they don’t want to see or hear. When they encounter perspectives or preferences that are at odds with their own, they are more likely to be concerned about the impact of those things on others throughout society and come to believe that government must “do something” to correct those perspectives. Many people desire regulation because they think it will be good for others, not necessarily for themselves. The regulation they desire has a very specific purpose in mind: “re-tilting” speech or market behavior in their desired direction.

The third-person effect hypothesis was first formulated by W. Phillips Davison in a seminal 1983 article:

In its broadest formulation, this hypothesis predicts that people will tend to overestimate the influence that mass communications have on the attitudes and behavior of others. More specifically, individuals who are members of an audience that is exposed to a persuasive communication (whether or not this communication is intended to be persuasive) will expect the communication to have a greater effect on others than on themselves.[37]

Davison used this hypothesis to explain how media critics on both the Left and Right seemed to simultaneously find “bias” in the same content or reports when they couldn’t possibly both be correct. In reality, their own personal preferences were biasing their ability to fairly evaluate that content. Davison’s article prompted further research by many other psychologists, social scientists, and public opinion experts to test just how powerful this phenomenon was in explaining calls for censorship and other social phenomena.[38] In these studies, third-person effect has been shown to be the primary explanation for why many people fear—or even want to ban—various types of speech or expression, including news,[39] misogynistic rap lyrics,[40] television violence,[41] video games,[42] and pornography.[43] In each case, the subjects surveyed expressed strong misgivings about allowing others to see or hear too much of the speech or expression in question, but greatly discounted the impact of that speech on themselves. Such studies thus reveal the strong paternalistic instinct behind proposals to regulate speech. As Davison notes:

Insofar as faith and morals are concerned… it is difficult to find a censor who will admit to having been adversely affected by the information whose dissemination is to be prohibited. Even the censor’s friends are usually safe from the pollution. It is the general public that must be protected. Or else, it is youthful members of the general public, or those with impressionable minds.[44]

It’s easy to see how this same phenomenon is at work in debates about privacy. Regulatory advocates imagine their preferences are “correct” (right for everyone) and that the masses are being duped by external forces beyond their control or comprehension, even though the advocates themselves are somehow immune from the brain-washing and privy to some higher truth that the hoi polloi simply cannot fathom. Again, this is Sowell’s “Vision of the Anointed” at work.

Consider the flare-up in 2004 over the introduction of Gmail, Google’s free email service. At a time when Yahoo! mail (then as now the leading webmail provider) offered customers less than 10 megabytes of email storage, Gmail offered an astounding gigabyte of storage that would grow over time (now over 7 GB). Rather than charging some users for more storage or special features, Google paid for the service by showing advertisements next to each email “contextually” targeted to keywords in that email—a far more profitable form of advertising than “dumb banner” ads previously used by other webmail providers.[45] Self-appointed (or, to extend Sowell’s framework, “self-anointed”) privacy advocates howled that Google was going to “read users’ email,” and led a crusade to ban such algorithmic contextual targeting.[46] Thierer responded to these critics by pointing out that the service was purely voluntary and noted:

you don’t speak for me and a lot of other people in this world who will be more than happy to cut this deal with Google. So do us a favor and don’t ask the government to shut down a service just because you don’t like it. Privacy is a subjective condition and your value preferences are not representative of everyone else’s values in our diverse nation. Stop trying to coercively force your values and choices on others. We can decide these things on our own, thank you very much.[47]

Interestingly, however, the frenzy of hysterical indignation about Gmail was followed by a collective cyber-yawn: Users increasingly understood that algorithms, not humans, were doing the “reading” and that, if they didn’t like it, they didn’t have to use it. Today, nearly 150 million of people around the world use Gmail, and it has a steadily growing share of the webmail market. Even though cyber-consumers have embraced the service, some privacy advocates persist in their effort to shut down Gmail. They appear determined to stop at nothing to impose their will on others—the essence of political elitism—even if that means cutting off free email service for 150 million people![48]

A similar debate has played out more recently regarding targeted online advertising in general. Advertising on search engines is, much like Gmail, targeted “contextually” based on search terms entered by users and most advertising on other websites is based on the nature of content on a site or page. But certain data is collected about users as they browse to make that advertising more effective—by measuring its performance, reducing fraud, preventing over-exposure, etc. Some privacy advocates have insisted that industry self-regulation of such practices (even if enforced by the FTC) is inadequate and have called for preemptive regulation. They are even more offended by “behavioral advertising” which allows publishers whose content would have little value as the basis for contextually targeting advertising on their own sites to compete for more highly valued advertising by showing ads to users based on other sites they’ve visited. In both cases, data collection can increase the funding available to publishers to produce more of the content and services preferred by users, thus conferring an enormous indirect benefit on users, but also directly benefits users by increasing the relevance of the advertising they see.[49] For some of the more extreme advocates of privacy regulation, however, there are no trade-offs, only absolutist “solutions:” To them, privacy is so obviously desirable that they feel at ease in deciding what’s best for everyone else. Such absolutists often respond with righteous indignation and conspiratorial fulmination when challenged to identify the harm against which they’re protecting consumers, while disdainfully dismissing all talk of the benefits of online advertising as self-serving industry propaganda.[50]

VII. The Principled Alternative: Trust People & Empower Them

There is an alternative to this elitist mentality: freedom and personal responsibility. Individuals should be permitted to live a life of their own, even if they sometimes make mistakes or choices that are at odds with what elites think is best for them. [51]

Of course, the world isn’t perfect. In an ideal world, adults would be fully empowered to tailor speech and privacy decisions to their own values and preferences. Specifically, in an ideal world, adults (and parents) would have (1) the information necessary to make informed decisions and (2) the tools and methods necessary to act upon that information. Importantly, those tools and methods would give them the ability to not only block the things they don’t like—objectionable content, annoying ads or the collection of data about them—while also finding the things they want.

Achieving that ideal is likely impossible, but the good news is that we are moving closer to it with each passing day. Citizens have more tools and methods at their disposal than ever before which enable them to make decisions for themselves and their families. And this is true for both parental controls [52] and privacy controls.[53]

Of course, some speech and privacy elitists will argue that we can’t trust empowerment tools ( e.g., filters, rating systems, or other controls) that are created by companies or other affected parties. But rather than trying to enhance those tools and educate users about how to use them, these elitists skip right past user empowerment and channel their energies into regulations that would impose a top-down, one-size-fits all standard on all adults and families—or even into trying to craft the perfect “nudge” that will help users make what elites believe to be the “right” decisions. Of course, these tools can, and should, be improved. Those groups worried about speech/content and privacy issues should focus on how we might drive such protections from the bottom-up by empowering individuals instead of government bureaucrats. The goal in both cases should be a “let-a-thousand-flowers-bloom” approach, which offers diverse tools and strategies for our diverse citizenry.[54] We need not accept “one-size-fits” all approaches, whether they be regulatory mandates or “nudges,” based on the presumption that elites know best.

Finally, it is vital not to lose sight of what’s ultimately at stake here. If regulatory approaches trump the empowerment agenda we have described, the future of a free and open Internet—indeed, as technology converges, the future of all media—is at risk.[55] By imposing technological solutions from the top-down that can never keep pace with technological change, regulation necessarily forecloses freedom and innovation.[56] By contrast, individual empowerment allows innovation to flourish. The better approach across the board is education, not regulation.[57] Empowerment, not elitism, is the path forward. The digital elite should be leading this effort by developing and promoting technologies of empowerment, not crafting regulatory mandates to force their will upon us.[58]

#

Adam Thierer is a Senior Fellow with The Progress & Freedom Foundation and the director of its Center for Digital Media Freedom. Berin Szoka  is a Senior Fellow with PFF and the Director of PFF’s Center for Internet Freedom.

[1] . William A. Henry, In Defense of Elitism (1995) at 2-3.

[2] . See Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Congress, Content Regulation, and Child Protection: The Expanding Legislative Agenda, Progress Snapshot 4.4, Feb. 2008, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2008/ps4.4childprotection.html. Like American courts, we use the term “speech” as a broad catch-all for communications, including both actual speaking as well as other forms of transmitting, as well as receiving, information (“content”).

[3] . See generally Adam Thierer, Don’t Scapegoat Media, USA Today, Dec. 4, 2008, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2008/ps4.24scapegoatmedia.html; Marjorie Heins, Not in Front of the Children, “Indecency,” Censorship, and the Innocence of Youth (2001); Karen Sternheimer, It’s Not the Media: The Truth about Pop Culture’s Influence on Children (2003); Karen Sternheimer, Kids These Days: Facts and Fictions about Today’s Youth (2006).

[4] . See Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, FCC Violence Report Concludes that Parenting Doesn’t Work, PFF Blog, Apr. 26, 2007, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2007/04/fcc_violence_re.html.

[5] . See Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Sen. Rockefeller Gives Up on Parenting at Senate Violence Hearing, PFF Blog, June 26, 2007, blog.pff.org/archives/2007/06/sen_rockefeller_1.html.

[6] . Adam Thierer, Conservatives, Porn, and “Community Standards,” The Technology Liberation Front, March 2, 2009, http://techliberation.com/2009/03/02/conservatives-porn-and-community-standards.

[7] . Berin Szoka & Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Online Advertising & User Privacy: Principles to Guide the Debate, Progress Snapshot 4.19, Sept. 2008, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2008/ps4.19onlinetargeting.html.

[8] . Jeff Chester, for decades the great gadfly of American advertising, has decried “the system … developed to track each and every one of us and our behavior for one-on-one marketing efforts” as “manipulative, intrusive and un-democratic.” Wendy Melillo, Q&A: Chester Writes the Book on Privacy, Dec. 11, 2007, www.gfem.org/node/227. For instance, Chester and other leading “privacy advocates” ridicule the idea of smart phones as a “liberating technology” and insist that,

Despite the glowing words about customization and personalized service, what marketers and advertisers are increasingly offering consumers is merely the illusion of free choice. Mobile operators offer their various options and services, not on an individual basis, but preconfigured according to segmented demographic profiles.

Center for Digital Democracy and U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Complaint and Request for Inquiry and Injunctive Relief Concerning Unfair and Deceptive Mobile Marketing Practices, Jan. 13, 2009 (emphasis original), www.democraticmedia.org/files/FTCmobile_complaint0109.pdf. See generally Berin Szoka & Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Targeted Online Advertising: What’s the Harm & Where Are We Heading?, Progress on Point 16.2, Feb. 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/2009/pop16.2targetonlinead.pdf.

[9] . Berin Szoka & Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, COPPA 2.0: The New Battle over Privacy, Age Verification, Online Safety & Free Speech, Progress on Point 16.11, May 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/2009/pop16.11-COPPA-and-age-verification.pdf.

[10] . The Supreme Court has used a “right to privacy” to strike down laws against the use of contraception by married couples, Griswold v Connecticut, 381 U.S. 479 (1965), and abortion, Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973).

[11] . Eugene Volokh, Freedom of Speech and Information Privacy: The Troubling Implications of a Right to Stop People From Speaking About You, 52 Stanford L. Rev. 1049 (2000), available at www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/pop7.15freedomofspeech.pdf.

[12] . See , Amicus Brief for Association Of National Advertisers, Cato Institute, Coalition For Healthcare Communication, Pacific Legal Foundation And The Progress & Freedom Foundation In Support Of Appellants, IMS Health v. Sorrell, No. 09-1913-cv(L), 09-2056-cv(CON) (2nd Cir. 2009), available at www.pff.org/issues-pubs/filings/2009/071309-Brief-Amici-Curiae-ANA-et-al-Second-Circuit-(09-1913-cv).pdf.

[13] . See Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Social Networking and Age Verification: Many Hard Questions; No Easy Solutions, Progress on Point No. 14.5, March 2007, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ pops/pop14.8ageverificationtranscript.pdf; www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/pop14.5ageverification.pdfAdam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Statement Regarding the Internet Safety Technical Task Force’s Final Report to the Attorneys General, Jan. 14, 2008, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/other/090114ISTTFthiererclosingstatement.pdf; Nancy Willard, Why Age and Identity Verification Will Not Work—And is a Really Bad Idea, Jan. 26, 2009, www.csriu.org/PDFs/digitalidnot.pdf; Jeff Schmidt, Online Child Safety: A Security Professional’s Take, The Guardian, Spring 2007, www.jschmidt.org/AgeVerification/Gardian_JSchmidt.pdf.

[14] . Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Mandatory Data Retention: How Much is Appropriate, PFF Blog, June 26, 2006, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2006/06/mandatory_data.html

[15] . Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, The Perils of Mandatory Parental Controls and Restrictive Defaults, Progress on Point 14.4, Apr. 11, 2008, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/2008/pop15.4defaultdanger.pdf.

[16] . Adam Thierer, China’s Green Dam Filter and the Threat of Rising Global Censorship, PFF Blog, June 17, 2009, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2009/06/chinas_green_dam_filter_and_threat_of_rising_globa.html

[17] . They define choice architecture as follows: “A structure designed by a choice architect(s) to improve the quality of decisions made by homo sapiens. Often invisible, choice architecture is the specific user-friendly shape of an organization’s policy or physical building when homo sapiens come into contact with it. Examples of choice architecture include a voter ballot, a procedure for handling well-meaning people who forget a deadline, or a skyscraper.” Nudge Glossary of Terms, www.nudges.org/glossary.cfm.

[18] . Lawrence Lessig, Code and Other Laws of Cyberspace (1999) at 6.

[19] . See Adam Thierer, Code, Pessimism, and the Illusion of “Perfect Control,” Cato Unbound, May 2009, www.cato-unbound.org/2009/05/08/adam-thierer/code-pessimism-and-the-illusion-of-perfect-control

[20] . See Solveig Singleton & Jim Harper, With A Grain of Salt: What Consumer Privacy Surveys Don’t Tell Us, 2001, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=299930.

[21] . As Cato Institute scholar Will Wilkinson has argued, the book’s “agreeably banal doctrine of choice-preserving helpfulness” blurs the lines between paternalism and libertarianism, and thus “the thrust of the conceptual renovation behind the term libertarian paternalism is to empower, not limit, political elites.” Why Opting Out Is No “Third Way,” Reason, October 2008, www.reason.com/news/show/128916.html. See also Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Sunstein’s “Libertarian Paternalism” is Really Just Paternalism, PFF Blog, April 7, 2008, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/04/sunsteins_liber.html.

[22] . See Robert Corn-Revere, “’Voluntary’ Self-Regulation and the Triumph of Euphemism,” in Rationales & Rationalizations: Regulating the Electronic Media (Robert Corn-Revere, ed., 1997), at 183-208.

[23] . Telecom Policy Report, Commission Settles Indecency Charges, But At What Cost?, June 30, 2004, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PJR/is_25_2/ai_n6091525.

[24] . See Adam Thierer, XM-Sirius, Regulatory Blackmail, and Diversity, June 17, 2008, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/06/xmsirius_regula.html.

[25] . See Comments of W. Kenneth Ferree on Implementation of Sirius-XM Merger Condition, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, MB Docket No. 07-57, March 30, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/filings/2009/033009siriusXMconditionfiling.pdf.

[26] . See Szoka & Adam Thierer, supra note 8 at 3.

[27] . See id. at 2.

[28] . Thomas Sowell, The Vision of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Basis for Social Policy (1995) at 5.

[29] . Alice Marwick, To Catch a Predator? The MySpace Moral Panic, First Monday, Vol. 13, No. 6-2, June 2008, www.uic.edu/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/2152/1966; Wade Roush, The Moral Panic over Social Networking Sites, Technology Review, Aug. 7, 2006, www.technologyreview.com/communications/17266; Anne Collier, Why Techopanics are Bad, Net Family News, April 23, 2009, www.netfamilynews.org/2009/04/why-technopanics-are-bad.html; Adam Thierer, Parents, Kids & Policymakers in the Digital Age: Safeguarding Against ‘Techno-Panics,’ Inside ALEC, July 2009, at 16-17, www.alec.org/am/pdf/Inside_July09.pdf; Adam Thierer, Progress & Freedom Foundation, Technopanics and the Great Social Networking Scare, PFF Blog, June 10, 2008, http://techliberation.com/2008/07/10/technopanics-and-the-great-social-networking-scare.

[30] . Supra note 13.

[31] . In the 109th Congress, former Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (R-PA) introduced the Deleting Online Predators Act (DOPA), which proposed a ban on social networking sites in public schools and libraries. DOPA passed the House of Representatives shortly thereafter by a lopsided 410-15 vote, but failed to pass the Senate. The measure was reintroduced just a few weeks into the 110th Congress by Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK), the ranking minority member and former chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee. It was section 2 of a bill that Sen. Stevens sponsored titled the “Protecting Children in the 21st Century Act” (S. 49), but was later removed from the bill. See Declan McCullagh, Chat Rooms Could Face Expulsion, CNet News.com, July 28, 2006, http://news.com.com/2100-1028_3-6099414.html?part=rss&tag=6099414&subj=news.

[32] . See Emily Steel & Julia Angwin, MySpace Receives More Pressure to Limit Children’s Access to Site, Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2006, online.wsj.com/public/article/SB115102268445288250-YRxkt0rTsyyf1QiQf2EPBYSf7iU_20070624.html; Susan Haigh, Conn. Bill Would Force MySpace Age Check, Yahoo News.com, March 7, 2007, www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17502005.

[33] . See, e.g., Letter of Henry McMaster, Attorney General, South Carolina to Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and Attorney General Roy Cooper Regarding Internet Safety Task Force (“ISTTF”) Report, January 14, 2009, www.scag.gov/newsroom/pdf/2009/internetsafetyreport.pdf

[34] . See Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Video Games and “Moral Panic,” PFF Blog, Jan. 23, 2009, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2009/01/video_games_and_moral_panic.html ; Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Fact and Fiction in the Debate over Video Game Regulation, Progress Snapshot 13.7, March 2006, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/pops/pop13.7videogames.pdf.

[35] . “All varieties of interference with the market phenomena not only fail to achieve the ends aimed at by their authors and supporters, but bring about a state of affairs which—from the point of view of their authors’ and advocates’ valuations—is less desirable than the previous state affairs which they were designed to alter. If one wants to correct their manifest unsuitableness and preposterousness by supplementing the first acts of intervention with more and more of such acts, one must go farther and farther until the market economy has been entirely destroyed and socialism has been substituted for it.” Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, at 858 (3rd ed. 1963) (1949).

[36] . See generally Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Myths: Making Sense of the Debate over Media Ownership (2005) at 119-123, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/books/050610mediamyths.pdf (Explaining how the third-person effect serves as a powerful explanation for the heated backlash that followed an FCC effort to moderately liberalize media ownership rules in 2003-04).

[37] . W. Phillips Davison, The Third-Person Effect in Communication, 47 Public Opinion Quarterly 1, Spring 1983, at 3.

[38] . For the best overview of third-person effect research, see Douglas M. McLeod, Benjamin H. Detenber, and William P. Eveland., Jr., Behind the Third-Person Effect: Differentiating Perceptual Processes for Self and Other, 51 Journal of Communication, Vol. 51, No. 4, 2001, at 678-695.

[39] . Vincent Price, David H. Tewksbury & Li-Ning Huang, Third-person Effects of News Coverage: Orientations Toward Media, Journalism & Mass Communications Quarterly, Vol. 74, at 525-540.

[40] . Douglas M. McLeod, William P. Eveland & Amy I. Nathanson, Support for Censorship of Violent and Misogynic Rap Lyrics: And Analysis of the Third-Person Effect, Communications Research, Vol. 24, 1997, at 153-174.

[41] . Hernando Rojas, Dhavan V. Shah, and Ronald J. Faber, For the Good of Others: Censorship and the Third-Person Effect, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Vol. 8, 1996, at 163-186.

[42] . James D. Ivory, Addictive, But Not For Me: The Third-Person Effect and Electronic Game Players’ Views Toward the Medium’s Potential for Dependency and Addiction, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Journalism and Mass Communication, Aug. 2002.

[43] . Albert C. Gunther, Overrating the X-rating: The Third-person Perception and Support for Censorship of Pornography, Journal of Communication, Vol. 45, No. 1, 1995, at 27-38

[44] . Supra note 37 at 14. Along these lines, a December 2004 Washington Post article documented the process by which the Parents Television Council, a vociferous censorship advocacy group, screens various television programming. One of the PTC screeners interviewed for the story talked about the societal dangers of various broadcast and cable programs she rates, but then also noted how much she personally enjoys HBO’s “The Sopranos” and “Sex and the City,” as well as ABC’s “Desperate Housewives.” Apparently, in her opinion, what’s good for the goose is not good for the gander! See Bob Thompson, Fighting Indecency, One Bleep at a Time, The Washington Post, Dec. 9, 2004, at C1, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49907-2004Dec8.html.

[45] . See Chris Anderson, Free: The Future of a Radical Price at 112-118 (2009).

[46] . See Letter from Chris Jay Hoofnagle, Electronic Privacy Information Center, Beth Givens, Privacy Rights Clearinghouse, Pam Dixon, World Privacy Forum, to California Attorney General Lockyer, May 3, 2004, http://epic.org/privacy/gmail/agltr5.3.04.html.

[47] . See email from Adam Thierer to Declan McCullaugh on Politech Email discussion group, April 30, 2004, http://lists.jammed.com/politech/2004/04/0083.html (emphasis added).

[48] . See Complaint and Request for Injunction of the Electronic Privacy Information Center against Google, Inc., March 17, 2009, http://epic.org/privacy/cloudcomputing/google/ftc031709.pdf; see also Ryan Radia, Should the FTC Shut Down Gmail and Google Docs Because of an Already-Fixed Bug?, Technology Liberation Front Blog, March 18, 2009, http://techliberation.com/2009/03/18/should-the-ftc-shut-down-gmail-and-google-docs-because-of-an-already-fixed-bug/.

[49] . See Berin Szoka & Mark Adams, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, The Benefits of Online Advertising & the Costs of Regulation, PFF Working Paper, forthcoming.

[50] . Anti-advertising crusader Jeff Chester often resorts to questioning the motives of those who question whether his regulatory prescriptions would actually benefit consumers, see, e.g., http://techliberation.com/2009/06/17/behavioral-advertising-industry-practices-hearing-some-issues-that-need-to-be-discussed/#comment-11698840. See generally Jeff Chester, Digital Destiny: New Media and the Future of Democracy (2007).

[51] . “The only freedom which deserves the name is that of pursuing our own good in our own way, so long as we do not attempt to deprive others of theirs or impede their efforts to obtain it. Each is the proper guardian of his own health, whether bodily or mental and spiritual.” John Stuart Mill, On Liberty (Penguin Classics, 1859, 1986) at 72.

[52] . Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Parental Controls & Online Child Protection, Special Report, Version 4.0, Summer 2009, www.pff.org/parentalcontrols.

[53] . Adam Thierer, Berin Szoka & Adam Marcus, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Privacy Solutions, PFF Blog, Ongoing Series, http://blog.pff.org/archives/ongoing_series/privacy_solutions.

[54] . Comments of Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, In the Matter of Implementation of the Child Save Viewing Act; Examination of Parental Control Technologies for Video or Audio Programming; MB Docket No. 09-26, April 16, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/filings/2009/041509-%5bFCC-FILING%5d-Adam-Thierer-PFF-re-FCC-Child-Safe-Viewing-Act-NOI-(MB-09-26).pdf.

[55] . See Adam Thierer, FCC v. Fox and the Future of the First Amendment in the Information Age, Engage, Feb. 20, 2009, www.fed-soc.org/doclib/20090216_ThiererEngage101.pdf

[56] . “To act on the belief that we possess the knowledge and the power which enable us to shape the processes of society entirely to our liking, knowledge which in fact we do not possess, is likely to make us do much harm.” Friedrich von Hayek, “The Pretence of Knowledge,” in The Essence of Hayek, (Hoover Inst., 1984), at 276.

[57] . Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Two Sensible, Education-Based Legislative Approaches to Online Child safety, Progress Snapshot 3.10, Sept. 2007, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2007/ps3.10safetyeducationbills.pdf.

[58] . See, e.g., Berin Szoka, Google, CDT, Online Advertising & Preserving Persistent User Choice Across Ad Networks Through Plug-ins, Technology Liberation Front Blog, March 13, 2009, http://techliberation.com/2009/ 03/13/google-cdt-online-advertising-preserving-persistent-user-choice-across-ad-networks-through-plug-ins/.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2009/08/11/what-unites-advocates-of-speech-controls-privacy-regulation/feed/ 23 20255 China’s Green Dam Filter and the Threat of Rising Global Censorship https://techliberation.com/2009/06/17/chinas-green-dam-filter-and-threat-of-rising-global-censorship/ https://techliberation.com/2009/06/17/chinas-green-dam-filter-and-threat-of-rising-global-censorship/#comments Wed, 17 Jun 2009 19:44:56 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=18807

Rebecca MacKinnon has an important piece in the Wall Street Journal today about China’s “Green Dam Youth Escort” filtering mandate and the danger of this model catching on with other governments. “More and more governments — including democracies like Britain, Australia and Germany — are trying to control public behavior online, especially by exerting pressure on Internet service providers,” she notes. “Green Dam has only exposed the next frontier in these efforts: the personal computer.”

She’s right, and that’s cause for serious concern.  Moreover, there’s the question of how corporations doing business in China should respond to demands and threats related to installing such filters. She notes:

In a world that includes child pornographers and violent hate groups, it is probably not reasonable to oppose all censorship in all situations. But if technical censorship systems are to be put in place, they must be sufficiently transparent and accountable so that they do not become opaque extensions of incumbent power — or get hijacked by politically influential interest groups without the public knowing exactly what is going on. Which brings us back to companies: the ones that build and run Internet and telecoms networks, host and publish speech, and that now make devices via which citizens can go online and create more speech. Companies have a duty as global citizens to do all they can to protect users’ universally recognized right to free expression, and to avoid becoming opaque extensions of incumbent power — be it in China or Britain.

I generally agree with all that but this is a difficult issue and one that I have struggled with personally. (See this “Friendly Conversation about Corporate High-Tech Engagement with China” that Jim Harper and I had three years ago).  But I do hope that more companies take a hard line with the Chinese as well as there own governemnts when it comes to filtering mandates or even restricitve parental control defaults and settings [an issue I wrote more about in this paper: “The Perils of Mandatory Parental Controls and Restrictive Defaults.”]  On that note, kudos to the business groups that already signed on to a joint letter oppossing China’s new filtering mandate.

]]> https://techliberation.com/2009/06/17/chinas-green-dam-filter-and-threat-of-rising-global-censorship/feed/ 11 18807 At Chamber of Commerce Event, IP Attachés Take Hard-Line Position On Overseas IP Enforcement https://techliberation.com/2008/12/26/at-chamber-of-commerce-event-ip-attaches-take-hard-line-position-on-overseas-ip-enforcement/ https://techliberation.com/2008/12/26/at-chamber-of-commerce-event-ip-attaches-take-hard-line-position-on-overseas-ip-enforcement/#comments Fri, 26 Dec 2008 22:38:49 +0000 http://techliberation.com/?p=15171

My piece about the U.S. Chamber of Commerce event last Friday on U.S. intellectual property attachés giving a report, and taking a hard line, on the enforcement of U.S. intellectual property, overseas, is now live on ip-watch.org.

Here’s the first couple of paragraphs:

WASHINGTON, DC – Nations ranging from Brazil to Brunei to Russia are failing to properly protect the intellectual property assets of US companies and others, and international organisations are not doing enough to stop it, seven IP attachés to the US Foreign and Commercial Service lamented recently.

Meanwhile, an industry group issued detailed recommendations for the incoming Obama administration’s changes to the US Patent and Trademark Office.

The problems in other nations extend from Brazil’s failure to issue patents for commercially significant inventions by US inventors, to an almost-complete piracy-based economy in Brunei, to an only-modest drop in the rate of Russian piracy from 65 percent to 58 percent.

The attachés, speaking at an event organised by the US Chamber of Commerce and its recently beefed-up Global Intellectual Property Center (GIPC), blasted the record of familiar intellectual property trouble zones like Brunei, Thailand and Russia.

But the problems extend to the attitudes and omissions of major trading partners like Brazil, India and even well-developed European nations, said the attachés.

[more at http://www.ip-watch.org/weblog/index.php?p=1387….]

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