Nick Carr has joined the ranks of the DRM skeptics:
Digital music sales, after growing strongly for a couple of years, appear to be losing steam this year. That, more than the particular EMI experiment, is the big news here. As the Journal reports, “The MP3 releases are coming as digital-music sales have stalled for the first time since Apple launched its iTunes Store in 2003. Digital track sales held steady at 137 million songs in the second and third quarters of this year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. That’s a slight drop from the 144 million sold in the first quarter.”
…Won’t selling songs as unprotected MP3s lead to rampant illegal copying? No. Because there’s already rampant illegal copying. Most unauthorized copying is done either through online file-sharing networks or by burning CDs for friends. DRM schemes have little effect on either of those. All new songs are immediately available on file-sharing networks, DRM or not. In fact, the Journal quotes one source as saying that the “pirate market … command[s] better than 90% of the online marketplace.” People buy through iTunes because they either don’t want to engage in illegal trading or can’t be bothered with the geeky aspects of illegal trading. It’s not because iTunes has removed the option of illegal trading. As for burning CDs to share, that remains easy even with DRM-protected songs.
No, DRM is about controlling the business model for selling online music. And if it looks like there won’t be much additional sales growth through iTunes, then music companies are going to start selling unprotected MP3s. In an iPod world, they have little choice.
Quite so. An interesting question is what the political implications will be if the labels start abandoning DRM en masse. The principal argument for the DMCA is that DRM is necessary to prevent rampant piracy. If the music industry tacitly admit that this is nonsense, will Hollywood soldier on, hoping that they can succeed where the recording industry failed? And if the RIAA stops using its lobbying muscle to block reform, will that make it easier to get legislation passed?
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