Filings are due to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) today as part of its review of the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) and the COPPA rule that the FTC devised and enforces. I didn’t have time to pen as much as I wanted, but I did submit a short filing to the agency in the matter based on some of my previous work both with Berin Szoka and on my own.  Here’s the executive summary for my filing:

It goes without saying that the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) is complicated law and rule. When considering the rule and proposals to amend it, it is easy to get lost in the weeds and ignore the bigger picture. That would be a mistake. There are broader, more important questions that need to be asked as part of the Federal Trade Commission’s effort to expand this regulatory regime. These questions involve not only the costs of increased regulation for online business interests, but the impact of expanded regulation on market structure, competition, and innovation. More importantly, these questions cut to the core of whether the public (including children) will be served with more and better digital innovations in the future. There is no free lunch. Regulation—even well-intentioned regulation like COPPA—is not a costless exercise. There are profound trade-offs for online content and culture that must always be considered.

Whatever one thinks about the effectiveness or sensibility of the COPPA regulatory model for the Web 1.0 world, it is clear that the regime is being strained by the unforeseen realities of the Web 2.0 world of hyper-ubiquitous connectivity and user-generated content creation and sharing. The digital genie cannot be put back in the bottle.  While COPPA may continue to have a marginal role to play in this rapidly evolving world, that role will likely be increasingly limited by the inherent realities of the information age.

Entire filing can be found on the Mercatus website, on SSRN, or via Scribd [Also embedded below in a Scribd reader.] [FILING] Comments of Adam Thierer – Mercatus Center – FTC COPPA 2011 Ammendments

The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve have pushed back the deadline for banking industry compliance with regulations pursuant to the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (UIGEA). UIGEA, the controversial tack-on to the Bush administration’s SAFE Port Act aimed at curtailing on-line gambling by making it illegal for U.S banks and financial institutions to participate in funds transactions between U.S. citizens and corporations that operate online casinos, effectively banning Internet gambling.

In a joint statement, the Treasury and the Fed delayed the compliance date, which had been set for today (December 1) to June 1, 2010, the Gambling Today blog reports. The decision also comes just days before Thursday’s scheduled hearing in the House Financial Services Committee on H.R. 2267, a bill introduced by Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), which would overturn UIGEA and create a full licensing and regulatory framework for the Internet gambling industry in the United States.

As Financial Services Committee chairman, Frank has been a vocal opponent of UIGEA and has been working for its repeal over the past two years. In authorizing the delay, the two agencies said that financial institutions were not prepared with the mechanisms they needed to block unlawful Internet gambling transactions, but they also noted that the rules did not provide a clear definition of unlawful Internet gambling. This last observation could be significant as it acknowledges one of the bill’s principal vulnerabilities—it broadly defines Internet gambling as games of chance. Opposition groups, notably the Poker Players Alliance, have repeatedly argued (correctly IMHO) that certain online casino games, especially poker, are games of skill.

Online gambling blogs generally greeted the delay positively and hope it is another step in the direction of restoring the freedom to gamble online.

As the Gambling Today blog notes:

The postponement was greatly appreciated by the supporters of online gambling. House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank has two of his sponsored bills coming up for hearing on December 3. Frank said, “This will give us a chance to act in an unhurried manner on my legislation to undo this regulatory excess by the Bush administration and to undo this ill-advised law.”

Progress Snapshot 5.10 from The Progress & Freedom Foundation

A recent telephone poll conducted by professors at Berkeley and the University of Pennsylvania concluded, “Contrary to what many marketers claim, most adult Americans (66%) do not want marketers to tailor advertisements to their interest.” The study’s authors claim that their poll is the “the first nationally representative telephone (wireline and cell phone) survey to explore Americans’ opinions about behavioral targeting by marketers.” They also assert that the poll indicates that “if Americans could vote on behavioral targeting today, they would shut it down.” Advocates of regulating online data collection have trumpeted this poll as evidence consumers demand legislation to protect their privacy. “This research gives the F.T.C. and Congress a political green light to go ahead and enact effective, but reasonable, rules and policies,” declared Jeff Chester, a leading critic of online advertising.

But what is most surprising about this poll is not that 66% of users said they do not want tailored online ads, but that 34% of users said they did! The key, initial question of “whether or not you want the websites you visit to show you ads that are tailored to your interests,” presents no trade-off. The fact that anyusers said “yes” indicates that many users paused to do the rough mental math about the unarticulated trade-off between the benefits of receiving tailored ads and the costs of that tailoring.

The methodology of opinion polls necessarily affects respondents’ mental calculations, rendering polls not just easily manipulated, but inherently unreliable as indicators of real preferences. Every poll reflects the bias of its authors to some degree by the way questions are worded, the order in which they are asked, the sample surveyed, etc. The easiest way to bias the results of a poll is to omit any mention of the trade-offs at issue. This poll simply buried the issue of trade-offs in a heavily loaded follow-up question: After telling respondents that marketers “often use technologies to follow the websites you visit and the content you look at in order to better customize ads,” the interviewer asked whether the respondent would allow advertisers to “follow [them] online in an anonymous way in exchange for free content.” Only 10% of users said they would allow this voluntary exchange.

What does this tell us about whether, and how, government should further regulate online advertising? Precious little: Not only does this poll overstate the costs of targeted advertising, understate its benefits, and ignore the tools available to users to address their privacy concerns but, like any opinion poll, this one tells us more about the psychology of decision-making under the artificial uncertainty of polls than about the choices users would actually make in the real world.

User Uncertainty About Concepts Like “Tailoring” and “Following”

Even the word “tailoring”—though benign compared to other words the study’s authors could have used ( e.g., “track,” “monitor,” “record”)—is so vague as to leave respondents wondering what it really entails. One can only speculate as to what users thought the word meant (since the poll did not ask), but it seems likely that some of these scarier words probably flashed through the minds of respondents in the instant before they answered the question. Indeed, the word “tailoring” conflates both the costs and benefits of personalized advertising in a single, vague word. Given this ambiguity, it’s hardly surprising that most users would say “no”—not just to receiving tailored advertising (66%), but also to receiving tailored discounts (49%) and news (57%). If users had been asked about receiving “relevant” (rather than “tailored”) ads, the responses probably would have turned out somewhat differently—just as an additional 17% of users agreed to receiving tailored “discounts,” whose value to users is more readily apparent: saving money on potential purchases.

The second set of questions asked users whether it “Would be OK… if these ads [discounts/news] were tailored for you based on following what you do on the website you are visiting… [24% said yes] OTHER websites you have visited… [34% said yes] and OFFLINE—for example, in stores? [25% said yes].” Again, the term “follow” was not defined. A third set of questions explained to respondents that marketers “often use technologies to follow the websites you visit and the content you look at in order to better customize ads.” The interviewer then asked whether the respondent would “definitely allow, probably allow, probably NOT allow, or definitely not allow advertisers” to “follow you online in an anonymous way in exchange for free content”—and only 10% of users said yes. Thus, it appears that users are more, not less, hostile to tailored advertising when reminded of the trade-offs involved (35% yes in the first set of questions, 10% yes in the third). What explains this paradox?

The most obvious explanation is that, by the time the respondent got to the critical question about “allowing” tailored advertising, they had heard the word “follow” at least five times: once in each of the three questions about whether tailoring was OK, once in the introduction about how marketers customize ads and once in the question itself—each time increasing uncertainty as to how “tailoring” really works and more than negating any suggestion of “anonymity.” Furthermore, asking users whether something should be “allowed” implies that there are undisclosed reasons why it should not be. This much is simple psychology—obvious to anyone who wanted to craft a poll that would support a particular regulatory agenda.

But behavioral economics research tells us something even more profound about the way our brains work: human beings hate making choices, and loathe uncertainty even more. Indeed, such “mental accounting” or “mental transaction” costs appear to be the primary reason why, after a decade of efforts to develop a micropayments system that can fund online content and services, no such system has emerged—and thus why Internet publishers instead rely primarily on advertising revenues ($23.5 billion in 2008) to fund “free” offerings for consumers. In this case, merely forcing consumers to consider the costs of “tailoring” and being “followed,” and decide whether these things are “OK” or should even be “allowed” strongly tips the scales in favor of the outcome desired by the study’s authors because these considerations and decisions are significant psychological costs in themselves, which likely outweigh the diffuse benefits of tailored advertising, which users simply do not appreciate.

Indeed, the scale tips so strongly that the study suggests that 73% of Americans object to having ads tailored based on “what you do on the website you are visiting.” Would not this objection apply to purely contextual advertising “tailored” to the keywords entered by a user in a search engine or to the keywords that appear on a particular page to which a user has navigated within a site? If so, this study isn’t just about the bogeyman of “behavioral” advertising, but about essentially all online advertising, which is to some degree “tailored.” Indeed, must lawmakers protect us from the tailoring of news (71%) and discounts (62%) within websites? Or, if data collection is the real harm to consumers, what about the fact that hundreds of millions of people happily share far more personal information every day on social networks or using grocery discount cards? Opinion polls simply cannot answer these questions.

The Direct Benefit of Tailored Ads: Relevance

Whatever Americans tell pollsters about “tailored” ads, they also complain about irrelevant ads: A previous poll found that 72% of consumers “find online advertising intrusive and annoying when the products and services being advertised are not relevant to [their] wants and needs” and 85% say that less than 25% of the ads they see while browsing online are relevant to their wants and needs. Real-world experiments confirm that users reveal a clear preference for more relevant advertising. In a 2004 experiment, click-through rates (CTR) for behaviorally targeted ads were between 94% and 225% higher than for contextually targeted ads. A 2009 study found that the difference could be between 670% and 1000% percent, depending on how well-tailored the ads were. In other words, users in the real world were two to eleven times more likely to click on highly-tailored ads. Truly, actions speak louder than words: Users clearly “vote with their clicks” for ads they find relevant—i.e., they vote for “tailoring.”

Further reinforcing this conclusion is the fact that better tailoring increases not only click-through rates but also “conversion rates”—the percentage of users who actually complete the action desired by the advertiser, whether that be making a purchase or signing up for a list. A 2008 experiment found increased conversion rates of 400-900% (2008). This indicates that relevant ads really do help consumers find things they like—and that they like the fruits of tailoring, however they respond when asked about “tailoring” as an abstract concept that conflates costs (“How are they following me?”) and benefits (“What’s in it for me?”).

The Indirect Benefit of Tailored Ads: Free Content & Services

Even less apparent to poll respondents than the direct benefit of tailoring (increased relevance) are the indirect benefits: In particular, greater relevance to the user means more effective communication for the advertiser, and increased ad revenue for most online publishers per ad on their sites. Thus, there exists a clear quid pro quo: in effect, users “pay” for content and services by sharing information about their interests. Even more fundamentally, users “pay” for content by seeing ads. But both quid pro quos are implicit: Users can simply choose not to “pay” by using readily available tools in their browser to blocking ads and/or tracking. In essence, today’s system allows users who don’t like ads—tailored or otherwise—to opt out at little or no cost, much as if they simply decided not to pay for a product they bought at their local grocery store.

This creates a serious dilemma, given that advertising increasingly stands alone as the lifeblood of online content and services. Indeed, ads have long funded the costs of generating content for radio, television, and newspapers (with subscriptions paying only for distribution). The basic reason is simple economics: In competitive markets, prices tend to fall to the marginal cost of production. The Internet has simply borne this theory out in full:

1. Producing the first unit of content (e.g., a news story or video) remains costly, so while the marginal cost of every additional unit is essentially zero,average cost is not.
2. The failure of micropayments online seems to confirm that, no matter how low the technological transaction costs are, the mental transaction costs involved combined with even tiny payments will exceed the perceived value of most content.
3. The world of media scarcity in which consumers could choose from only a few sources of content (e.g., news, entertainment) has given way to a world of staggering media abundance and the choices of users are no longer constrained by the tyranny of physical limitations like distance and printing costs.
4. Because pure information cannot be copyrighted (and fair use allows significant referencing and quotation), very little content is so unique that users cannot find a ready substitute elsewhere if a site (or even cartel of sites) attempted to charge.

These forces have given birth to the world of “Free,” where few (if any) users will pay for something they can get for nothing. While there are a number of ways to fund content and services, advertising is far and away the leading business model for the new economy: Indeed, overall advertising market is expected nearly to double its share of total U.S. ad spending from 8.7% in 2008 ($23.4 billion) to 15.2% ($37.2 billion). But with 44% of advertising revenue going to search engines (which show highly “tailored” ads simply based on search terms), hundreds of thousands of publishers—from the mightiest to the tiniest—rely on $7.6 billion (33% of the total) in “display” ad revenue. Yet this base is tiny: Most websites earn a fraction of the revenue generated by offline ads: roughly $0.60 to $1.10 per thousand impressions (CPM) online versus average CPMs of $4.54 (radio) to $10.25 (broadcast). This unprofitability of online advertising, and the fact that certain kinds of online content (e.g., video and online services) does not provide the textual keywords necessary for basic contextual targeting is driving publishers to ad networks that offer behavioral targeting, which is expected to grow from $525 million in 2007 to $4.4 billion in 2012—when it will represent 25% of all display ad spending.

In short, advertising is indispensable to the future of online media, but it is also currently inadequate to sustain “Free” culture. As Adam Thierer and I warnedearlier this year: “The advocates of regulation pay lip service to the importance of advertising in funding online content and services but don’t seem to understand that this quid pro quo is a fragile one: Tipping the balance, even slightly, could have major consequences for continued online creativity and innovation… Something must give because there is no free lunch.” In 2001, long before Google mattered and before he worked for them, Kent Walker (now Google’s general counsel) put it best in a seminal law review article:

Privacy is both an individual and a social good. Still, the no-free-lunch principle holds true. Legislating privacy comes at a cost: more notices and forms, higher prices, fewer free services, less convenience, and, often, less security. More broadly, if less tangibly, laws regulating privacy chill the creation of beneficial collective goods and erode social values… Such regulation would likely increase both direct and indirect costs to the individual consumer, reduce consumer choice, and inhibit the growing trend of personalization and tailoring of goods and services.

Thus, as Jim Harper and Solveig Singleton concluded in their 2001 paper With a Grain of Salt: What Privacy Surveys Don’t Tell Us:

privacy surveys in particular… suffer from the “talk is cheap” problem. It costs a consumer nothing to express a desire for federal law to protect privacy. But if such law became a reality, it will cost the economy as a whole, and consumers in particular, significant amounts that surveys do not and cannot reveal.

We Need a Behavioral Economics Experiment, Not Just Another Poll

The Berkeley-Penn poll could certainly have done more to present these trade-offs to respondents and less to color their responses by inflating mental transaction costs. But even the most “fair” poll cannot meaningfully simulate the trade-offs inherent in the real world. If we really want to know how muchsubjective value consumers place on a particular aspect of their privacy, we must look to the preferences they reveal in the process of making real choices.

Of course, the best experiment is the one being conducted in the real world every day. No laboratory experiment can ever fully replicate all of the conditions of the real world, but a behavioral economics experiment could tell us more about the revealed preferences of Internet users than any poll. Unlike the real world, an economist could vary certain conditions in a lab experiment to tell us how various changes to current industry practice, user empowerment, or user education might actually affect real consumer choices. At a minimum, any experiment would require the following to inform policymaking about online advertising and privacy.

First, the experiment should vary the mechanisms by which notice is provided to users as to how tailoring works ( e.g., placement, interface, wording) and what those notices actually say.

Second, test subjects must make real choices in real use of the Internet with trade-offs in real money and their own time between either paying for access to a particular site or getting access for free in exchange for receiving tailored ads based on at least the three variables presented as questions in the Berkeley-Penn study: (i) users’ browsing activity on that site; (ii) their browsing activity on other sites; and (iii) offline activity or demographic information.

The second variable is critical because it addresses the value created by behaviorally tailored ads, which could be wiped out by regulation. Search engines are able to sell highly effective advertising based solely on information provided directly to the site (search keywords, which are highly indicative of user interest), and some sites can sell lucrative advertising based on purely contextual targeting because their content contains keywords that advertisers value highly ( e.g., a site for digital camera enthusiasts). But the vast majority of websites, and especially non-commercial websites, would produce little ad revenue if advertisers could only guess at the likely interests of visitors based on the keywords on that site. This, in a nutshell, is why so many sites stand to gain so much from behavioral targeting—particularly in the Internet’s “Long Tail.” To be useful, an experiment must reflect this dynamic.

In the real world, of course, it might be possible for the user to opt-out of tracking without losing access to content because today’s quid pro quo is implicit and most sites operate on a “No Cost Opt-Out” basis for tracking and even seeing ads. But in order to tell us how much consumers really care about tracking, the experiment must place some value on access to content that is supported by free content and services.

Third, the experiment must examine the extent to which user empowerment affects user choice: If some users are uncomfortable with having their browsing activity tracked, is it because they are concerned about all tracking or only tracking of certain sensitive activities, such as researching medical issues or—everyone’s favorite—viewing pornography? How does the availability of privacy management tools change user choices about ad-tailoring? Do Americans really want tailoring banned, or do they just want the ability to exercise easy choice about when they want to participate? How would those choices change when they come at a cost (e.g., seeing more ads) and privacy-sensitive users cannot simply free-ride off the value created by users whodon’t opt-out of targeted advertising (and also don’t block ads)?

Such an experiment would, by its very nature, be imperfect—but far less imperfect than any poll about opinions on privacy. Until a proper experiment is conducted by trained behavioral economists, all we can say with confidence is the following:

1. Users don’t understand exactly how ads are tailored;
2. Users seem to be concerned about “tailoring” or “following” in the abstract;
3. Users are generally unwilling to pay for online content and services; and
4. Better tailoring of ads means more funding for content and services.

There is only one approach that can address all these concerns: educate users about how online advertising works and how they can implement their own privacy preferences, while constantly striving to further empower users to make privacy management easier.

My friend Larry Magid, one of America’s leading Internet safety experts, has an outstanding column over at the Yahoo Kids “Connected Parent” site entitled “Is the Internet as Dangerous as Drunk Driving?” In it, he discusses the surprising results of a recent survey of 1,000 moms of teenagers commissioned by McAfee and conducted by Harris Interactive which found that “about two-thirds of mothers of teens in the United States are just as, or more, concerned about their teenagers’ online safety, such as from threatening emails or solicitation by online sexual predators, as they are about drunk driving (62 per cent) and experimenting with drugs (65 per cent).”

Like Larry, I was a bit shocked that so many mothers would equate online safety with the dangers of drunk driving. After all, as Larry proves, the relative risks aren’t even close:

While moms have good reason to be concerned about how their teens use the Internet, online dangers pale compared to the risks of drunk driving. In 2007, 6,552 people were killed in auto accidents involving young drivers (16-20), according to the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA). In 2006, nearly a fifth (18%) of the 7,643 15- to 20-year-old drivers involved in fatal traffic crashes had a blood had a blood alcohol concentration of .08 or higher. Perception of Internet danger has been heightened thanks to the TV show “To Catch a Predator” and inaccurate reports such as “one in five children have been sexually solicited by a predator.” That statistic is a misquote from a 2000 study by the Crimes Against Children Research Center. The data (which, based on a 2005 follow-up study was revised to one in seven) is based on a survey that asked teens if they had in the last year received an unwanted sexual solicitation. But many (possibly most) of those solicitations were from other teens, not from adult predators. What’s more most recipients didn’t view them as serious or threatening, “almost all youth handled the solicitations easily and effectively” and “extremely few youth (two out of 1500 interviewed) were actually sexually victimized by someone they met online,” reported the authors of the study. Other studies have shown that “the stereotype of the Internet child molester who uses trickery and violence to assault children is largely inaccurate” (Wolak, Finkelhor & Mitchell, 2004). In a survey of law enforcement investigators of Internet sex crimes, it was reported that only 5% of offenders pretended to be teens when trying to meet potential victims online.

Those of us who work on Internet policy issues need to do a better job of helping the press and public put online safety risks in proper perspective. Misguided Internet legislation is often premised upon irrational or conjectural fears. Unfortunately, a lot of average moms have been swayed by misperceptions, many of which have been driven by the press or public interest groups that favor more regulation of the Net.

It is a difficult thing for me to say, but I am man enough to do it: I must congratulate our intellectual opponents on their amazing victory in the battle to impose Net neutrality regulations on the Internet. With the Wall Street Journal reporting last night that the FCC is on the verge of acting against Comcast based on the agency’s amorphous Net neutrality principles, it is now clear that the folks at the Free Press, Public Knowledge, and the many other advocates of comprehensive Internet regulation have succeeded in convincing a Republican-led FCC to get on the books what is, in essence, the nation’s first Net Neutrality law. It is quite an accomplishment when you think about it.

Even though, as Jerry Brito has noted, “the FCC has no authority to enforce a non-binding policy statement,” it is clear that is not about to stop the activist-minded FCC Chairman Kevin Martin or his allies on the Left from advancing the cause of arbitrary, bureaucratic governance of the Internet. And that means the “Hands Off the Net” era will gradually start giving way to the “Hands All Over the Net” era. As I told Bob Fernandez of the Philadelphia Inquirer when he called to interview me for a story about these developments:

“This is the foot in the door for big government to regulate the Internet,” […] “This is the beginning of a serious regulatory regime. For the first time, the FCC is making law around net neutrality.”

And now that they have that foot in the door, I fully expect that it will be exploited for everything it’s worth to grow the scope of the FCC’s coercive bureaucratic authority over all things digital. The Left is salivating at the prospect of imposing their top-down vision of forced egalitarianism on the the Net, while the Right is figuring out how quickly they can exploit this to impose speech controls on anything they don’t want the public to see or hear.

It is a historic moment in the history of communications and media regulation, and freedom has lost—miserably. The tentacles of the regulatory Leviathan have grown infinitely longer and a little bit more of the Net’s freedom died today. And, again, what’s most amazing about this is that we have a Republican FCC to thank for that. So much for the GOP being for smaller government.