I testified this morning in the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s Subcommittee on Communications, Technology, and the Internet at a hearing titled, “An Examination of the Proposed Combination of Comcast and NBC Universal.” Among those testifying were Comcast Chairman and CEO Brian L. Roberts, and NBC Universal President and CEO Jeff Zucker.  Down below I have attached my brief remarks (we only had 5 minutes), but see the Scribd doc at the very bottom to also see the embedded charts. I also wrote a paper about the proposed deal back in December entitled, “A Brief History of Media Merger Hysteria: From AOL-Time Warner to Comcast-NBC” as well as this editorial for Forbes.

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Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee, thank you for inviting me here today. My name is Adam Thierer and I am the President of The Progress & Freedom Foundation (PFF).

Although we are still early in this process, there has already been a great deal of hand-wringing and even some dire predictions about the pending merger of Comcast and NBC Universal. I hope to put this proposed marriage in some historical context and explain why the deal certainly won’t have the detrimental impact some critics fear, and also explain why it might even be one potential model for how to sustain traditional media going forward.

Beware Media Merger Hysteria

First, let’s remember that we’ve been here before. Paranoid predictions of a media apocalypse have accompanied the announcements of many previous media mergers, from AOL-Time Warner to News Corp.-DirecTV to XM-Sirius.[i] In these cases and almost all others, however, the “sky is falling” claims proved to be greatly overstated.[ii] The only “harm” that one could reasonably claim came from those mergers was not to consumers or content providers, but to the merging firms themselves and their shareholders. That’s because many mergers simply fail to create the sort of synergies and benefits originally hoped for and consequently die of natural causes over time.

Other firms, however, have found ways to make deals work and deliver important new services that previously were unimaginable or simply too expensive to offer alone.[iii] Regardless, the point here is that we’ll never know what works unless we permit marketplace experimentation with new and innovative business models.

“Gatekeeper” Myths: Why Restricting Content Options is Economic Suicide

Second, the fear that Comcast-NBCU will act as a “gatekeeper” over video content is also largely overblown—especially in light of the preemptive concessions they have already made on program access and carriage. But it’s important to realize that the merger will only marginally affect vertical integration in the cable marketplace. Currently, the percentage of cable channels owned by video distributors is in the single digits, and even after this merger it will only be in the teens.[iv] (See Exhibit 1) Stated differently, the vast majority of cable channels will be independent of Comcast-NBCU control.

More importantly, it’s hard to believe the new firm would restrict its content to just Comcast-owned distribution networks since they would be losing the eyeballs, advertisers, and revenues that would accompany the carriage of their content on other video platforms. Likewise, it would make little sense for the firm to block new or competing channels on their own platform since they would incur the wrath of the programmers and the viewing public alike. And those channels will likely quickly find a home elsewhere, which could incentivize subscribers to switch video service providers. (See Exhibits 2-6)

Indeed, the great thing about the modern media marketplace is that there is always another place for consumers to turn to find what they want. Comcast faces increasingly robust competition in the video programming marketplace from satellite and telco providers, as well as from Internet-based video providers.^[v] (See Exhibit 7) And NBC Universal’s stable of programming, while impressive, is a mere trickle in an ocean of content that consumers can choose from.^[vi]

Meanwhile, many consumers are increasingly “cutting the cable cord” altogether and instead getting the video they want from a bewildering array of online video services.[vii] Netflix, Hulu, Joost, Roku, Apple, the Sony PlayStation Store, the Microsoft Xbox store, and others offer traditional TV fare while sites like YouTube, Vimeo and Justin.TV offer a mix of professional and amateur content.

In sum, there has never been so much competition for our eyes and ears, and audiences and advertising dollars have become increasingly fragmented as a result.[viii] (See Exhibits 8-10)

What Future for Broadcasting & Local News in Turbulent Times?

Finally, we need to realize that the ongoing digital revolution is upending many traditional media business models—especially advertising supported over-the-air broadcasting—and that alliances like Comcast-NBCU may be one blueprint for how traditional media operators can evolve and compete going forward.  With both the FCC and FTC currently investigating whether journalism is in trouble and what it might take to “save the news,” many media economists and industry analysts seem to agree that at least some degree of consolidation or collaboration might be necessary.

Consider last week’s news that NBC Universal saw quarterly profits plunge by a whopping 30% in the fourth quarter of 2009.[ix] This is indicative of the general downturn the entire media sector has been experiencing as of late.  Why not then let Comcast help NBCU try to get back on track rather than force them to make it on their own in a radically uncertain future?  And it goes without saying that Comcast might be better positioned to protect NBC Universal’s copyrighted content from digital piracy, at least over its own pipes.

Those who are concerned about the future of broadcasting and local news should remember that news—and local broadcast news in particular—isn’t cheap. Unless we want to embark on a massive government subsidization scheme to bailout traditional media providers, Congress and regulatory officials must be willing to grant private media operators the flexibility to restructure their business affairs so they can continue to provide important public needs while also turning a profit.[x] That can’t happen unless we allow media markets to evolve and let operators experiment with new business models and ownership structures.[xi] Although there are no guarantees, creator/distributor alliances like Comcast-NBCU may be one model that helps firms create, extend, and then also monetize their media content.  But, again, regulatory flexibility is crucial so we can figure out what works and what doesn’t.

Thank you again for inviting me here to testify.

[ii] Adam Thierer, A Media Morality Play, Forbes, Dec. 15, 2009, www.forbes.com/2009/12/14/media-merger-antitrust-opinions-contributors-adam-thierer.html

[iii] A good example: Disney’s seamless and successful integration of ABC Television Group (ABC + Disney cable properties), Walt Disney Studios, the Walt Disney Internet Group, its many ESPN properties, and its parks and resorts.

[iv] 2006 is the last for which the FCC has made data available, but as of that time the overall number of national programming networks available in America stood at 565 channels. That is up from just 70 channels in 1990, an astonishing increase in program choices.  The FCC noted that, “Of the 565 networks, 84 (14.9 percent) were vertically integrated, or affiliated, with at least one cable operator.” Federal Communications Commission, FCC Adopts 13^th Annual Report to Congress on Video Competition and Notice of Inquiry for the 14^thAnnual Report, Nov. 27, 2007, at 4, http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-278454A1.pdf What that summary fails to mention, however, is that vertical integration has fallen steadily since the FCC’s first Annual Video Competition Report was issued, when over 50 percent of all channels were affiliated with a cable operator. Indeed, the video marketplace exhibits less vertical integration than ever before. As far as vertically integrated industries go, no impartial observer would conclude that this industry is being controlled by “gatekeeper,” pay TV platforms, as some critics suggest. Most new pay TV channels today are independently owned and offer an unprecedented diversity of programming options. This trend is a strong sign of how healthy and vibrantly competitive this marketplace is today. Finally, these numbers do not take into account the split between Time Warner Entertainment and Time Warner Cable, which represented a significant portion of the 15% of vertically owned channels before 2006. That is the percentage of cable channels owned by video distributors is in the single digits today.

[v] Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Video Competition in a Digital Age, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Communications, Technology and the Internet, U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Oct. 22, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/testimony/2009/10-22-09-thierer-testimony-video-competition-digital-age.pdf

[vi] Adam Thierer, The Media Cornucopia, City Journal, Vol. 17, No. 2, Spring 2007, at 84-89, www.city-journal.org/html/17_2_media.html

[vii] See generally The Progress & Freedom Foundation, “Cutting the Video Cord,” PFF Blog Ongoing Series, http://blog.pff.org/archives/ongoing_series/cutting_the_video_cord/

[viii] Adam Thierer and Grant Eskelsen, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Metrics: The True State of the Modern Media Marketplace, PFF Special Report, Summer 2008), www.pff.org/mediametrics

[ix] David B. Wilkerson, NBC Quarterly Profit Plunges 30%, MarketWatch, Jan. 22, 2010.

[x] W. Kenneth Ferree, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Another Naïve Proposal for Government Entanglement with the Fourth Estate, PFF Blog, Feb. 1, 2010, http://blog.pff.org/archives/2010/02/another_naive_proposal_for_government_entanglement.html;  Adam Thierer, Socializing Media in Order to Save It, City Journal, March 27, 2009, www.city-journal.org/2009/eon0327at.html; Adam Thierer, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Public Option for Press Should Get the Red Pen, Progress Snapshot 6.4, Jan. 25, 2010, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/ps/2010/ps6.4-OP-ED-for-Daily-Caller-A-Public-Option-for-the-Press.html

[xi] W. Kenneth Ferree, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, Media Ownership Proceedings, Testimony before the Federal Communications Commission, Nov. 3, 2009, www.pff.org/issues-pubs/testimony/2009/11-03-09-ferree-media-ownership-testimony.pdf; Adam Thierer, Media Myths: Making Sense of the Debate over Media Ownership (The Progress & Freedom Foundation, 2005), www.pff.org/issues-pubs/books/050610mediamyths.pdf

Testimony of Adam Thierer – House Hearing about Comcast-NBC Merger 2-4-10 http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf

The WSJ reports on the intensifying economic pressure on local TV stations: declining viewership, ad revenue and the threat that national networks might go straight to cable.  

Many stations are looking to the Internet for salvation:

Stations are scrambling to find new revenue streams. Some are testing out technology that will send their signals to cellphones and mobile devices, and beefing up their Web sites to boost online advertising. Others say rather than shrinking local news coverage, they’re expanding it, since it’s the only original content they still have….   Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc., a Texas-based company that owns or manages 51 stations around the country, launched highly local “community” Web sites. Stations owned by NBC Universal are piping content and ads to TV screens in supermarkets, taxi cabs and their own Web sites. “These tough times really force you to look at everything,” says John Wallace, president of NBC Local Media, the cadre of stations owned by NBC. “It remains to be seen how this is going to evolve, but I do believe there will be a market for local television well into the future.”

Wow, I am really blown away by CancelCable.com. Earlier today, I mentioned how I discovered it thanks to Mike Musgrove’s Washington Post story about how more and more people are canceling their cable and satellite subscriptions altogether and using alternative video platforms — Hulu, iTunes, Netflix, XBox, etc. — to watch their favorite shows. Anyway, if you go to CancelCable.com’s “Show Finder” site, you will find a complete inventory of all the major television programs you can find online right now. Go to the site to see the complete list, but down below I cut just the first 15 shows listed to give you a feel for how it works. And that list just continues to grow and grow in both directions — in terms of the number of shows and the number of platforms where you can get them.

OK, so why again do we need to mandate a la carte regulation for cable and satellite?

Back in the mid- and even late 1990s, I was engaged in a lot of dreadfully boring telecom policy debates in which the proponents of regulation flatly refused to accept the argument that the hegemony of wireline communications systems would ever be seriously challenged by wireless networks. Well, we all know how that story is playing out today. People are increasingly “cutting the cord” and opting to live a wireless-only existence. For example, this recent Nielsen Mobile study on wireless substitution reports that, although only 4.2% of homes were wireless-only at the end of 2003…

At the end of 2007, 16.4 percent of U.S. households had abandoned their landline phone for their wireless phone, but by the end of June 2008, just 6 months later, that number had increased to 17.1 percent. Overall, this percentage has grown by 3-4 percentage points per year, and the trend doesn’t seem to be slowing. In fact, a Q4 2007 study by Nielsen Mobile showed that an additional 5 percent of households indicated that they were “likely” to disconnect their landline service in the next 12 months, potentially increasing the overall percentage of wireless-only households to nearly 1 in 5 by year’s end.

And one wonders about how many homes are like mine — we just keep the landline for emergency purposes or to redirect phone spam to that number instead of giving out our mobile numbers.  Beyond that, my wife and I are pretty much wireless-only people and I’m sure there’s a lot of others like us out there.

Anyway, I’ve been having a strange feeling of deva vu lately as I’ve been engaging in policy debates about the future of the video marketplace.  Like those old telecom debates of the last decade, we are now witnessing a similar debate — and set of denials — playing out in the video arena.  Many lawmakers and regulatory advocates (and even some industry folks) are acting as if the old ways of doing business are the only ways that still count.  In reality, things are changing rapidly as video content continues to migrate online.

I was reminded of that again this weekend when I was reading Nick Wingfield’s brilliant piece in the Wall Street Journal entitled “Turn On, Tune Out, Click Here.”  It is must-reading for anyone following development in this field.  As Wingfield notes:

In the past two years, nearly every major network show and many of the biggest cable programs have become available on the Internet. The virtual library of content includes everything from “Desperate Housewives” and “CSI” to “The Colbert Report” and “Mad Men.” Some of the biggest hits online are memorable TV moments. More than half of the people who saw recent “Saturday Night Live” skits featuring comedian Tina Fey as vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin watched the skits over the Internet, according to a survey of 500 viewers on Monday by Solutions Research Group. Nearly a quarter saw them on YouTube and 21% saw them on NBC.com or Hulu.com. Many shows can be viewed for free and are accompanied by a dollop of ads that’s small when compared with the number of commercial breaks on television. As a result, some cost-conscious consumers are ditching their cable subscriptions altogether.

And the migration of video online is really picking up speed as a result.  According to Wingfield, “Complete episodes of about 90% of prime-time network television shows and roughly 20% of cable shows are now available online, according to Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey.”  However, Wingfield points out that “the number of people watching all of their programs online is still small; some estimates put the number at just 1% of the total television audience. In part, that’s because watching online isn’t as easy as channel surfing on the couch, TV remote in hand. Viewers must either watch shows on their personal computers, or use a device like Apple TV, which allows them to download shows from the Internet onto their television sets.”  That being said, he goes on to note that:

Within the next several years, however, media and technology executives say that a host of new technologies will make television access to online video a mainstream phenomenon. Vudu Inc. already sells a $299 set-top box with a remote control that allows users to download television shows for $1.99 per episode. Microsoft and Sony both sell television shows that users of their Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 videogame consoles can download over the Internet for viewing on television sets. Netflix subscribers can buy a $99 set-top box from Roku Inc. that streams videos on their television sets. The service is included at no extra charge in the monthly Netflix fee for renting DVDs.

And that’s just what’s happening today.  There will be a lot more options coming online soon.  Remember, most of these changes have all taken place in just the past couple of years.  If you look at the FCC’s last “Annual Video Competition Report” from two years ago, you won’t find much discussion of these new developments. But, if the FCC ever gets around to releasing another annual report, the regulators won’t be able to ignore these trends and developments any longer.

OK, so the point is clear: The video marketplace is changing rapidly. Meanwhile, however, back in the surreal regulatory la-la land of Washington, DC, it remains business as usual.  As Brian Anderson and I point out in our new book, A Manifesto for Media Freedom, policymakers are still trying applying a host of unique regulations to “old media” providers, including: various censorship rules, educational programming mandates, special campaign finance advertising laws, must carry regs, media ownership caps, broadcast “localism” requirements and various other “public interest” obligations, and much more.

At what point does this charade end?  When do we realize that substitution is occuring and giving people alternative places to camp their eyeballs?  Or doesn’t that make any difference?  Should we just continue to regulate the old platforms and players the same was as always?  Or, worse yet, should we “level the playing field” by regulating the Internet and online video providers the same way?  I hope most people would understand what a disaster that would be in practice.  The Internet and digital video delivery is offerning society an unprecedented abundance of media riches.  They last thing we need to do is screw it up by laying on reams of regulation.