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DOT’s Driverless Cars Guidance: Will “Agency Threats” Rule the Future?

by on September 20, 2016 · 2 comments

Today, the U.S. Department of Transportation released its eagerly-awaited “Federal Automated Vehicles Policy.” There’s a lot to like about the guidance document, beginning with the agency’s genuine embrace of the potential for highly automated vehicles (HAVs) to revolutionize this sector and save thousands of lives annually in the process.

It is important we get HAV policy right, the DOT notes, because, “35,092 people died on U.S. roadways in 2015 alone” and “94 percent of crashes can be tied to a human choice or error.” (p. 5) HAVs could help us reverse that trend and save thousands of lives and billions in economic costs annually. The agency also documents many other benefits associated with HAVs, such as increasing personal mobility, reducing traffic and pollution, and cutting infrastructure costs.

I will not attempt here to comment on every specific recommendation or guideline suggested in the new DOT guidance document. I could nit-pick about some of the specific recommended guidelines, but I think many of the guidelines are quite reasonable, whether they are related to safety, security, privacy, or state regulatory issues. Other issues need to be addressed and CEI’s Marc Scribner does a nice job documenting some of them is his response to the new guidelines.

Instead of discussing those specific issues today, I want to ask a more fundamental and far-reaching question which I have been writing about in recent papers and essays: Is this guidance or regulation? And what does the use of informal guidance mechanisms like these signal for the future of technological governance more generally? Continue reading →

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Surveillance Cuts Both Ways: How New Technology Helps Keep the Cops in Check

by on May 8, 2012 · 0 comments

This seems like a logical follow-up to Berin Szoka’s previous post about technology, social activism, and government power. ReasonTV has produced this important short clip on “Cops Vs. Cameras: The Killing of Kelly Thomas & The Power of New Media.” It documents how the combined power of citizen journalism, social media, and surveillance video can ensure that our police authorities are held accountable for their actions. In this particular case, it can hopefully win some justice for Kelly Thomas, the homeless Fullerton, California man who was brutally beaten to death by police officers on the night of July 5, 2011.

There is live video from the horrific beating here, but I caution you it is not for the faint of heart. Watching the last moments of man’s life slip away from repeated blows to the head while he begs for his life and calls out for his father is, well, stomach-turning. But imagine if this video and the other citizen videos that were taking that night had not existed. As the ReasonTV clip notes, the Fullerton police department basically ignored requests for more information about the case until Kelly’s father (who was former police officer himself) took cell photos of his son’s beaten face in the hospital and released them to the public. Then the citizen videos of the beating were posted on YouTube and went viral. And then, finally, mainstream media started paying attention. And now the surveillance video from a nearby street camera has been released after citizens and activists demanded it. Continue reading →

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Net Neutrality Regulation, Accountability & Democracy

by on November 24, 2010 · 14 comments

Proponents of Net neutrality regulation continue their full-court press to get the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and its chairman, Julius Genachowski, to unilaterally push through a new industrial policy regime for the Internet. The latest word, according to Politico, is that the agency is pushing back its scheduled December open meeting from Dec. 15 to Dec. 21 to give the agency more time to plot its next move.  There’s no word yet what the agency’s regulatory blueprint will look like, so it’s impossible to critique the agency’s plan at this point.  I’ve made the case against Net neutrality regulation here before, however, and I’m sure those same concerns and critiques will apply to whatever the agency ends up adopting.

What’s most concerning about the way this process is playing out currently is just how anti-democratic it is.  I understand the zeal of the pro-regulatory forces on this issue, but there is simply no good excuse for advocating that 3 unelected officials at an independent regulatory agency rush through a vote to regulate a such a massive and important sector of the American economy.

It used to be the case that a broad and non-partisan coalition of academics and organizations supported the non-delegation principle, which, generally speaking, refers to the notion that only democratically elected officials should be in a position to pass laws and make the really important decisions about the future course of our polity and its economy.  Of course, when it comes to the economy, I’d prefer most of those decisions be left to marketplace experimentation.  However, to the extent regulation is deemed necessary and that regulation governs such a massively important portion of the American economy, that determination should definitely be made by elected leaders in Congress and not delegated to bureaucrats who would ram through regulations with 3 votes and sketchy plan for reordering that sector. Continue reading →

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Rural Broadband Subsidies: Another Iraq?

by on August 10, 2010 · 1 comment

In a 3-2 vote, the Federal Communications Commission recently decided to jack up its official definition of “broadband” from 200 kbps download to the 4 mbps dpwnload/1 mbps upload used as a benchmark in Our Big Fat National Broadband Plan. The three commissioners in the majority also declared that the definition of broadband will continue to evolve as consumers purchase faster connections to utilize new applications.

Several months earlier, the FCC launched a proceeding to figure out how to convert universal service subsidies for rural telephone service into universal service subsidies for rural broadband service.  Put these two decisions together, and it looks like the majority on the FCC is hell-bent on establishing rural broadband subsidies as a perpetual entitlement program that will never “solve” the rural availability problem because the goalposts will keep moving.

The current USF program taxes price-sensitive services (long distance and wireless) to subsidize a service that is not very price sensitive (local phone connections).  If the FCC takes a further step on the funding side and starts collecting universal service assessments from broadband, it will diminish broadband subscribership by taxing a service that is even more price sensitive: broadband connections. (I explained this a few months ago here.)

It’s time to get off this merry-go-round. The solution was suggested by MIT economist Jerry Hausman back when the FCC first started creating the current universal service programs in response to the Telecom Act of 1996: use revenues from spectrum auctions. 

Instead of having the FCC perpetually collect assessments from broadband or telephone services to subsidize broadband buildout in rural areas, Congress should earmark revenues from the next spectrum auction for one-time buildout grants in high-cost areas. The grants should be awarded via a competitive procurement auction that would force subsidy-seekers in different locations to compete with each other for the federal dollars. And Congress should explicitly wind down the universal service telephone subsidies in high cost areas and prohibit the FCC from using universal service assessments to fund broadband deployment in these places.

Using revenues from spectrum auctions would avoid the distortions and perverse consequences caused by ongoing universal service assessments on broadband or telephone services. One-shot deployment grants would ensure that the availability problem gets solved, so the federal government can declare victory and get out of the perpetual subsidy business.

Of course, some locations in the US are so expensive to serve that the potential revenues might not even cover the operating costs of broadband. But it does not follow that operators in these places need an ongoing stream of subsidies. When preparing their subsidy bids, they will have to calculate how large the one-shot payment needs to be to induce them to take on the capital costs and the ongoing operating costs. In other words, they can bank some of the one-shot subsidy and use it to cover the difference between revenues and operating costs.

This modest proposal does not address all aspects of the universal service fund. But it would achieve a clear objective — bringing broadband to rural areas — while allowing the FCC to extricate itself from the business of distributing $4.6 billion a year in subsidies. Let’s see a timetable for withdrawal!

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What's the Problem? A Lesson from the Net Neutrality Debate

by on April 9, 2010 · 5 comments

Several years ago at a conference on universal telecommunications service, one panel moderator noted, “Everything that can be said about universal service has already been said, but not everybody has had a chance to say it, so that’s why we still have these conferences.” After hearings and a study by the Federal Trade Commission, a Federal Communications Commission Notice of Inquiry during the previous administration, the National Broadband Plan, the FCC’s still-open Open Internet proceeding, and Wednesday’s extension of the reply comment period in the Open Internet proceeding, net neutrality is starting to have the same vibe.

That’s why, instead of virtually killing some more virtual trees by writing more lengthy comments and replies, Jerry Brito and I signed onto a declaration by telecommunications researchers which explains that there is no empirical evidence of a systemic problem that would justify net neutrality rules, and these rules might actually ban practices that benefit consumers. Since the world probably doesn’t need another blog post rehashing arguments about this issue, I’ll simply point you to the comment here. It was masterfully written by economist Jeff Eisenach, a veteran of the Federal Trade Commission. (The teeming throngs of humanity who are curious to know whether Jerry and I have any original thoughts to contribute to the issue can read this CommLaw Conspectus article.)

Now that I’ve gotten the shameless self-promotion out of the way, let me MoveOn to a broader point. The debate over net neutrality illustrates how important it is to identify and demonstrate the nature of the problem before trying to solve it.  This applies whether the issue is net neutrality or health care or financial market regulation. Two points in particular bear repeating.

First, ensure that there is empirical evidence of a system-wide problem. The arguments for net neutrality are based on concerns about things the broadband companies might have the ability to do – not empirical proof of widespread abuses that have actually occurred. Less than a handful of famous anecdotes support the argument for net neutrality. Sweeping, systemwide policy changes should only occur when a sweeping, systemwide problem actually exists.

Second, understand the actual nature of the problem. Have a coherent theory of cause and effect that explains why the problem occurs with reasoning that is consistent with what we know about human behavior. Ignoring this point has led to some odd decisions on issues far afield from net neutrality. In 2009, for example, the Department of Energy proposed energy efficiency standards for clothes washers to be used in laundromats and apartment buildings. The justification for the regulation assumed that greedy business owners and landlords willfully ignored opportunities to earn higher profits by investing in energy-efficient appliances! One might argue about whether consumers always identify and act on opportunities to save energy, but assuming that businesses will ignore opportunities to save money is a much bigger stretch.

If you don’t get the problem right, you won’t get the solution right!

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Broadband Baselines

by on April 1, 2010 · 0 comments

The national broadband plan drafted by Federal Communications Commission staff has a lot of goals in it. Goals for broadband infrastructure deployment include:

  1. Make broadband with 4 Mbps download speeds available to every American
  2. Over the long term, have broadband with 100 Mbps download and 50 Mbps upload speeds available to 100 million American homes, with 50 Mbps downloads available to 100 million homes by 2015
  3. Have the fastest and most extensive wireless broadband networks in the world
  4. Ensure that no state lags significantly behind in 3G wireless coverage
  5. Ensure that every community has access to 1 Gbps broadband service in institutions like schools, libraries, and hospitals

The plan also outlines a number of policy steps that the FCC and other federal agencies could take to help accomplish these goals.

So far, so good. But to truly hold federal agencies accountable for achieving these objectives, we need more than goals, measures, and a list of policy proposals. We also need a realistic baseline that tells us how the market is likely to progress toward these goals in the absence of new federal action, and some way to determine how much the specific policy initiatives affect the amount of the goal achieved.

Here’s what will happen in the absence of a well-defined baseline and analysis that shows how much improvement in the goals is actually caused by federal policies: The broadband plan announces goals. The government will take some actions. Measurement will show that broadband deployment improved, moving the nation closer to achieving the goals. The FCC and other decisionmakers will then claim that their chosen policies have succeeded, because broadband deployment improved.

But in the absence of proof that the policies cause a measurable change in outcomes, this is like the rooster claiming that his crowing makes the sun rise. Scientists call this the ” post hoc, ergo propter hoc” fallacy: “B happened after A, therefore A must have caused B.” (Brush up on your Latin a little more, and you’ll even find out what Mercatus means. But I digress.)

Enough abstractions. Let me give a few examples.

The first goal listed above is to ensure that all Americans have access to broadband with 4 Mbps download speeds. In his second comment on my March 17 “Broadband Funding Gap” post, James Riso notes that the plan acknowledges that 5 out of the 7 million households that currently lack access to 4 Mbps broadband will soon be covered by 4th generation wireless. That means coverage for 83 percent of the households that lack 4 Mbps broadband is already “baked into the cake.” 

Accurate accountability must avoid giving future policy changes credit for this increase in deployment, because it was going to happen anyway.  (Of course, policymakers need to avoid taking steps that would discourage this deployment, such as levying the 15 percent universal service fee on 4th generation wireless.) The relevant question for evaluating future policy changes is, “How do they affect deployment to the remaining 2 million households?”

Similarly, the goal of 50 Mbps to 100 million households by 2015 seems to have been chosen because cable and fiber broadband providers indicate that they plan to cover more than that many homes by 2013 with broadband capable of delivering those speeds (pp. 21-22). Future policy initiatives should get zero credit for contributing toward this goal unless analysis demonstrates that the initiatives increased deployment of very high speed broadband over and above what the companies were already planning.

If you think this point is so basic that it’s not worth mentioning, you haven’t read enough government reports. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc is endemic, and not just on technology-related topics. For example, both sides regularly display this fallacy whenever the unemployment figures get released: “Unemployment increased after Obama’s election, therefore his administration caused the unemployment.” “The recession started when Bush was president, therefore his administration caused the unemployment.” These are at best hypotheses whose truth, untruth, and quantititive significance needs to be established by analysis that controls for other factors affecting the results.

Just take this as an advance warning on reporting results of the national broadband plan: Tone down the triumphalism.  

Note: For those of you who just can’t get enough discussion of the national broadband plan, Jerry Brito and I will have a dialog on other aspects of the plan in a future podcast that will be available here on Surprisingilyfree.com.

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FCC Releases Executive Summary of Broadband Plan

by on March 15, 2010 · 0 comments

The FCC today released an executive summary of its National Broadband Plan, which is supposed to be delivered to Congress tomorrow.  Of course, executive summaries by their nature are brief and usually don’t explain the underlying logic and evidence supporting the conclusions. Here are a few highlights, some possible interpretations, and things to look for when the full plan gets released tomorrow:

Recommendation: “Undertake a comprehensive review of wholesale competition rules to help ensure competition in fixed and mobile broadband.” This could signal that the FCC plans to re-impose “unbundling” or “line sharing” regulations, which would require broadband companies to let competitors use their lines and other facilities at regulated rates. Such initiatives would likely undermine broadband deployment and investment.  Economic research by my GMU colleague Tom Hazlett and others finds that broadband investment, competition, deployment in the US took off only after the FCC eliminated line-sharing requirements. Christina Forsberg and I summarized a lot of this research here.

Recommendation: “Make 500 Mhz of spectrum available for broadband within ten years … Enable incentives and mechanisms to repurpose spectrum.” This is a fantastic recommendation. A Mercatus Center review of the costs of federal telecommunications regulations found that federal spectrum allocation, which prevents spectrum from being reallocated to uses that consumers value highly (like broadband), is by far the costliest federal regulation affecting telecom and the Internet. This recommendation indicates the FCC leadership would like to auction a lot more spectrum and share the proceeds with existing users (like broadcasters) in order to overcome resistance to reallocation. It’s not quite a market in spectrum, but it might be the closest the FCC can come.

Recommendation: “Broaden the USF contribution base to ensure USF remains sustainable over time.” Uh-oh. I’m not sure what this means, but if means that broadband subscribers will have to start payng into the FCC’s universal service fund (USF), watch out! Most economic studies find that consumer demand for broadband is very price-sensitive. That means if the FCC slaps broadband with universal service fees (which currently exceed 10 percent), we’ll see a big drop in broadband subscribership — maybe by 4-7 million subscribers. This is , of course, precisely the opposite of what the FCC wants to accomplish!

Recommendation: “Reform intercarrier compensation, which provides implicit subsidies to telephone companies by eliminating per minute charges over the next ten years…” Another excellent idea.  “Intercarrier compensation” refers to payments phone companies make when they hand traffic off to each other. Small, rural phone companies usually receive the highest per minute payments — as much as 15-30 cents per minute! This is a huge markup on long-distance phone service — another price-sensitive service!

Recommendation: Provide subsidies so that rural areas can have broadband with download speeds of 4 MB.  It will be interesting to read in the full plan where this 4 MB figure came from. Does it reflect the speed of service that a lot of Americans currently have, so these subsidies are just supposed to help equalize opportunities for rural residents? Or does it reflect some balancing of the costs and benefits of subsidizing broadband in rural areas?  Or is this a magic number experts believe subscribers need, regardless of the choices consumers actually make in the marketplace and regardless of what it costs?

The executive summary also lists a set of goals, such as ensuring that every American has the ability to subscribe to “robust” broadband service, having 100 million households with access to 100 MB broadband, and ensuring that the US has the fastest and most extensive wireless networks of any nation.  When the full plan comes out, look carefully at whether or how the FCC plans to measure accomplishment of these goals.  More importantly, look to see whether the FCC explains how it will quantify how much its own policies actually contribute to these goals over time. The FCC is famous for NOT doing these kinds of things, so let’s see if the broadband plan signals a new era in accountability.

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Fun Facts from the FCC's 2011 Budget Request

by on February 3, 2010 · 0 comments

The Federal Communications Commission released its 102-page fiscal year 2011 budget request to Congress this week.  Here are some fascinating factoids about the agency that I’ll pass on without commentary, beyond saying that they caught my attention:

  • The FCC has hired “close to 54 data experts, statisticians, econometricians, economists, and other expertise” to help with the National Broadband Plan mandated under the Recovery Act. These are “term employees,” meaning they’re not permanent, but the FCC says it needs more permanent hires to work on broadband after the plan is done. (p. 2)
  • The commission asks for a “budget” of $352.5 million. (p. 1) But its total requested spending actually tops $440 million, because it also asks for authority to spend $85 million of spectrum auction proceeds to cover the cost of auctions. (p. 5)
  • The administration proposes to give the FCC authority to charge user fees for unauctioned spectrum licenses, with projected revenues totaling $4.8 billion through 2020. (p. 6)
  • The FCC commits to 24 “outcome-focused performance goals.”  (pp. 16-29) Most of these goals are phrased as activities, not accomplishments, with lots of verbs like “enact,” “encourage,” “facilitate,” “enforce,” “promote,” “work to,” “foster,” advocate,” and “maintain.” In some cases, one can identify the actual concrete outcome by looking at additional wording or performance targets. It’s clear, for example, that the FCC wants to make sure that all Americans have access to broadband. In other cases, the concrete outcome, or how we would know if it is accomplished, is not clear.  For example, the only targets listed under the goal “Promote access to telecommunications services to all Americans” are targets for enforcement actions rather than measures of whether the FCC has actually accomplished the desired outcome.
  • The FCC has been supported almost entirely by regulatory fees assessed on regulated companies, with virtually no direct appropriations of tax dollars since fiscal year 2003 (p. 31).
  • Spectrum auctions have generated more than  $51.9 billion for the US Ttreasury. (p. 33)

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A Modest Proposal to Improve the State of the Union Speech

by on January 27, 2010 · 2 comments

Just finished watching President Barack Obama’s State of the Union speech and Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell’s response.

For some reason, this reminds me of the annual honors ceremony at my daughter’s school.  Why?  Because at my daughter’s school, when they award a plethora of awards to students in each grade, they ask the audience to hold our applause to the end.  Why? Because  applause prolongs the ceremony interminably.

Sound familiar? Members of Congress imitate Jack-in-the-Boxes springing up and down at appropriate applause lines. Democrats sprang up at appropriate applause lines relevant to the president’s agenda. Republicans sprang up too, when the president praised small business or said said he wanted more nuclear power plants.  President Obama expected applause from Republicans when he listed his tax cuts, but he was disappointed and then joked about it. If you watched the speech on TV, some members of Congress seemed to be applauding with a look on their faces that said they didn’t quite know why they were applauding. The Joint Chiefs of Staff finally stood up and applauded when Obama praised veterans. Vice President Joe Biden has perfected the “sage” look, though sometimes he looked grumpy enough to be mistaken for a Republican!  

Republicans have finally cottoned to this phenomenon. Instead of presenting a solo speaker in a sterile environment, they presented Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell with an audience in the Virginia State Capitol. Like the president, the governor was interrupted by applause from legislators and others in the audence. Rhetorically, I thought it added an extra “oopmh” to the governor’s speech — both because it showed he has folks who agree with him and because he highlighted the state perspective. Given the rules of the political game, it was a smart choice. 

But that doesn’t mean a change in the rules wouldn’t make everyone better off. It’s friggin’ 11:50 at night, and I’m wiped out from a day of simultaneously working at home to get something written and running multiple scans on the home computer to get rid of the friggin’ Security 2010 virus, or Trojan, or whatever that thing  is.  I would have appreciated shorter speeches that simply told me what each party wanted to accomplish.

So here’s my suggestion. For the State of the Union Speech and the opposition party’s response, they should make the same request made at my daughter’s school awards ceremony: “Please hold your applause until the end.”

Now … anybody got any interesting technological solutions that would accomplish this goal?

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There's no accounting for job creation

by on January 13, 2010 · 3 comments

An Associated Press story posted at 9:31 pm last night by Brett J. Blackledge notes that the Obama adminsitration “has abandoned its controversial method of counting jobs under President Barack Obama‘s economic stimulus, making it impossible to track the number of jobs saved or created with the $787 billion in recovery money.” Recipients of federal money were originally supposed to report how many jobs they had “saved or created.” Now, they’re just supposed to report how many people got paid with the money. 

The “saved or created” approach was an attempt to estimate how the Recovery Act spending affected employment. Unfortunately, it was impossible for this approach to deliver what it promised, as I pointed out in testimony to Congress last May. To know how many jobs the Recovery Act spending saved or created, we need to control for other factors that affect employment. We also need to control for the employment effects of the borrowing (and future taxing) that pays for the spending.

This is what good “macroeconomic” analysis does. It is not what employers do when they put people on the payroll.  Asking employers who received federal money to tell us how many jobs were created or saved is asking them to give us information that they do not have and cannot acquire.

Under the new approach, employers will report quarterly how many people they are paying with the federal money. Since the reports will be quarterly, some jobs may be counted more than once — I guess as much as four times a year. According to the AP story, some Republicans are complaining that the new approach will lead to even larger and more misleading job numbers.

The numbers will likely be higher. But they will not necessarily be misleading, as long as recovery.gov makes clear that these are simply reports on the number of people paid with the federal money, not an attempt to measure the number of jobs created.

Estimating jobs created is work for serious macroeconomists who try to control for other factors affecting the results. There’s of course plenty of room for disagreement over how to do this, as this commentary by my Mercatus Center colleagues Garrett Jones and Veronique de Rugy demonstrates.

The administration’s decision demonstrates once again the old adage that data is not knowledge.

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