The End of Movie Theaters?

by on October 9, 2006 · 4 comments

Mike Masnick notes another data point in the great King Kong debate. George Lucas thinks that the era of the $200 million blockbuster is over.

Spending $100 million on production costs and another $100 million on P&A makes no sense, he said. “For that same $200 million, I can make 50-60 two-hour movies. That’s 120 hours as opposed to two hours. In the future market, that’s where it’s going to land, because it’s going to be all pay-per-view and downloadable. “You’ve got to really have a brand. You’ve got to have a site that has enough material on it to attract people.” …Lucas said he believes Americans are abandoning the moviegoing habit for good. “I don’t think anything’s going to be a habit anymore. I think people are going to be drawn to a certain medium in their leisure time and they’re going to do it because there is a desire to do it at that particular moment in time. Everything is going to be a matter of choice. I think that’s going to be a huge revolution in the industry.”

I’m very reluctant to argue with the man who created three of the top 10 grossing films of all time, but this doesn’t seem quite right. People have been predicting the decline of the movie theater for decades, first in response to the television, and then in response to the VCR. It hasn’t happened yet. The reason, I think, is not only that the big screen makes for a better experience, but also that people like to go out, and seeing a movie is a good excuse for doing that. It’s the same reason that people go to bars when they could buy alcohol and consume it at home for a lot less money. As long as there are thousands of movie theaters, it seems to be there will be demand for big-budget blockbusters to draw people into them.

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Timothy B. Lee (Contributor, 2004-2009) is an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. He is currently a PhD student and a member of the Center for Information Technology Policy at Princeton University. He contributes regularly to a variety of online publications, including Ars Technica, Techdirt, Cato @ Liberty, and The Angry Blog. He has been a Mac bigot since 1984, a Unix, vi, and Perl bigot since 1998, and a sworn enemy of HTML-formatted email for as long as certain companies have thought that was a good idea. You can reach him by email at leex1008@umn.edu.

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  • http://www.digitalproductions.co.uk Crosbie Fitch

    Indeed, and if enough people put their money on the table to fund a blockbuster movie, then blockbuster movies will get made.

    The mental block people have to get over is the idea that blockbuster movies must generate revenue to the producers even after they’ve been made.

    Release the digital master of the movie copyleft. Let all the cinema operators take 100% of all ticket sales. Similarly for those who make DVDs or broadcast the movie on TV.

    What suddently happened to turn audiences away from their enjoyment of blockbuster movies?

    If the answer is nothing, then there’s still a market for blockbusters.

    The only possible thing that could have changed is the fact that we now have free and instantaneous diffusion, whereas we didn’t before. This does not affect cost of production. This does not affect market value. The only people who need to find new jobs are DISTRIBUTORS.

  • http://www.digitalproductions.co.uk Crosbie Fitch

    Indeed, and if enough people put their money on the table to fund a blockbuster movie, then blockbuster movies will get made.

    The mental block people have to get over is the idea that blockbuster movies must generate revenue to the producers even after they’ve been made.

    Release the digital master of the movie copyleft. Let all the cinema operators take 100% of all ticket sales. Similarly for those who make DVDs or broadcast the movie on TV.

    What suddently happened to turn audiences away from their enjoyment of blockbuster movies?

    If the answer is nothing, then there’s still a market for blockbusters.

    The only possible thing that could have changed is the fact that we now have free and instantaneous diffusion, whereas we didn’t before. This does not affect cost of production. This does not affect market value. The only people who need to find new jobs are DISTRIBUTORS.

  • http://theshavedape.blogspot.com Don Long

    I don’t know if I agree with you about theaters staying in business. A lot of chains, and some big independents, have gone belly up in the last 15 years. A lot of these are still open, under the ownership of the huge chains.

    I’ve gone from seeing one movie a month to perhaps two per year. I would rather sit home with my surround system, plus the ability to pause the movie, and eat snacks that are cheaper than real estate in Southern California. Plus, there are no unwashed, chit-chatting fools sitting around me.

    It doesn’t help matters that nearly every big-budget movie coming out of H-wood sucks. They’re all PG-13 and put more emphasis on explosions and fantastically good looking, young actors than story, acting, or directing talent.

  • http://theshavedape.blogspot.com Don Long

    I don’t know if I agree with you about theaters staying in business. A lot of chains, and some big independents, have gone belly up in the last 15 years. A lot of these are still open, under the ownership of the huge chains.

    I’ve gone from seeing one movie a month to perhaps two per year. I would rather sit home with my surround system, plus the ability to pause the movie, and eat snacks that are cheaper than real estate in Southern California. Plus, there are no unwashed, chit-chatting fools sitting around me.

    It doesn’t help matters that nearly every big-budget movie coming out of H-wood sucks. They’re all PG-13 and put more emphasis on explosions and fantastically good looking, young actors than story, acting, or directing talent.

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