So how about someone starts working on airplanes, now? Those things take about 30,000 lbs of fuel each trip. That’s a lot of JP-5…blimps, anyone?

Over the next few years, I should expect this trend to continue. The net result is that battery cost should decrease accordingly. What this means is that after 3 generations of doubling (about the limit that we may see for energy density possible through nano-technology), our Tesla’s batteries would cost around $3,000 in todays dollars. But at that point in time, the top-of-the-line batteries would give a 1,600 mile range.

Companies like Tesla are poised to ride this curve, and will have a lead in both technology R&D as well as a lock on the world-wide capacity that will make it difficult for any car makers not wise enough to establish partnerships out in the cold.

Bottom line, this is going to come on like a freight train.

How long will this take? While computing power doubles around once every 18 months, we’ve seen battery designs double every 36 months. So, 3 generations would put us out at about a decade.

10 years from now, the automotive marketplace is going to look quite different.

It’s about time.

But, the serious questions do remain. (1) Can’t they get the recharge time lower? (2) Extended range: I hear that Tesla may be offering a “spare” power source to extend the range a bit….but how far? (2). What is the battery life and cost to replace? Perhaps if battery life is low, they can include another set in the warranty and by playing the numbers and pricing and warranty game, may be able to include spare battery set (when needed), as part of the purchase price.

I’m presently living in Las Vegas. If you look at the graphic representation of the vehicles range, you’ll notice that it is just outside the Los Angeles home range. If you took off from LA to Vegas, you would end up, out of power somewhere around Baker….OK, so you’d get to see the World’s Largest Thermometer while you charged up and waited at Denny’s with a Burger and fries! Seriously, if they can extend the range to LV from LA, they would get a serious boost in orders as our tourism continues to climb and the LA/LV freeway provides a significant percentage of the activity.

Overall, I’ve been waiting for a car like this for 30 years. I do hope they get to the next level of battery technology, but the styling is already here!

I also wonder about battery life. My experience is that laptop batteries tend to last about 2 years before they need replacement. If these car batteries have a similar life cycle, does that mean you’ll need to shell out thousands of dollars to swap out your battery pack every two years?